Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

[atomheartbevo 89628]

Hungary has been watching this all play out in Europe, so with 13 cases they make serious decisions.  
 

 

[atomheartbevo 89628]

 

[Girdwood 118]

2 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

And Italy was doing more to stop it at 50 confirmed cases than we are doing at 1,000.

Why are deaths from coronavirus so high in Italy?

https://www.livescience.com/why-italy-coronavirus-deaths-so-high.html#xenforo-comments-1250

Spoiler

By Rachael Rettner - Senior Writer a day ago

Italy now has the highest number of deaths from COVID-19 outside of mainland China.

Deaths from the new coronavirus in Italy have soared in recent days, with the country reporting 463 total fatalities from the virus, out of 9,172 confirmed cases, as of Monday (March 9). But why are deaths in the country so high?

Outside of mainland China, Italy now has the highest number of deaths in the world from COVID-19, the disease caused by the new coronavirus. And the country's fatality rate from COVID-19 — at 5% — is much higher than the global average of 3.4%, according to the World Health Organization. 

One factor affecting the country's death rate may be the age of its population — Italy has the oldest population in Europe, with about 23% of residents 65 or older, according to The New York Times. The median age in the country is 47.3, compared with 38.3 in the United States, the Times reported. Many of Italy's deaths have been among people in their 80s, and 90s, a population known to be more susceptible to severe complications from COVID-19, according to The Local.

Related: Live updates on COVID-19

The overall mortality rate is always going to depend on the demographics of a population, said Aubree Gordon, an associate professor of epidemiology at the University of Michigan. In this case, the reported mortality rate is not "age standardized," which is a way to adjust for the underlying demographics of a population, she said.

Given Italy's older population, "you would expect their mortality rate to be higher on average, all else being held equal," compared with a country with a younger population, Gordon told Live Science.

In addition, as people age, the chances of developing at least one condition that weakens their immune system — such as cancer or diabetes — increases, said Krys Johnson, an epidemiologist at the Temple University College of Public Health. Such conditions also make people more susceptible to severe illness from coronavirus, she said.

Another issue may be the number of people in a given area who require medical care — having a lot of severely ill people in a single region could potentially overwhelm the medical system, Gordon said. She noted that this was likely the case in Wuhan, China, where the coronavirus outbreak began and which saw the majority of COVID-19 cases in China. A recent report from WHO found that the fatality rate was 5.8% in Wuhan, compared with 0.7% in the rest of the country, Live Science previously reported.

Finally, the country may not be catching many of the mild cases of COVID-19. Often, as testing expands within a community, more mild cases are found, which lowers the overall death rate, Gordon said. This was the case in South Korea, which conducted more than 140,000 tests and found a fatality rate of 0.6%, according to Business Insider.

"We probably don't know how many people have actually become infected," Johnson said. People with more mild symptoms, or those who are younger, may not be going to get tested, she said. Johnson suspects that the true fatality rate in Italy is closer to the global fatality rate of 3.4%.

Italy has conducted a substantial number of tests — more than 42,000 as of Saturday (March 7), according to Al Jazeera. However there is likely "quite a sizeable outbreak" in the area, which would need even more testing to identify, Gordon said.

 

[atomheartbevo 89628]

2 minutes ago, Girdwood said:

Why are deaths from coronavirus so high in Italy?

https://www.livescience.com/why-italy-coronavirus-deaths-so-high.html#xenforo-comments-1250

  Hide contents

By Rachael Rettner - Senior Writer a day ago

Italy now has the highest number of deaths from COVID-19 outside of mainland China.

Deaths from the new coronavirus in Italy have soared in recent days, with the country reporting 463 total fatalities from the virus, out of 9,172 confirmed cases, as of Monday (March 9). But why are deaths in the country so high?

Outside of mainland China, Italy now has the highest number of deaths in the world from COVID-19, the disease caused by the new coronavirus. And the country's fatality rate from COVID-19 — at 5% — is much higher than the global average of 3.4%, according to the World Health Organization. 

One factor affecting the country's death rate may be the age of its population — Italy has the oldest population in Europe, with about 23% of residents 65 or older, according to The New York Times. The median age in the country is 47.3, compared with 38.3 in the United States, the Times reported. Many of Italy's deaths have been among people in their 80s, and 90s, a population known to be more susceptible to severe complications from COVID-19, according to The Local.

Related: Live updates on COVID-19

The overall mortality rate is always going to depend on the demographics of a population, said Aubree Gordon, an associate professor of epidemiology at the University of Michigan. In this case, the reported mortality rate is not "age standardized," which is a way to adjust for the underlying demographics of a population, she said.

Given Italy's older population, "you would expect their mortality rate to be higher on average, all else being held equal," compared with a country with a younger population, Gordon told Live Science.

In addition, as people age, the chances of developing at least one condition that weakens their immune system — such as cancer or diabetes — increases, said Krys Johnson, an epidemiologist at the Temple University College of Public Health. Such conditions also make people more susceptible to severe illness from coronavirus, she said.

Another issue may be the number of people in a given area who require medical care — having a lot of severely ill people in a single region could potentially overwhelm the medical system, Gordon said. She noted that this was likely the case in Wuhan, China, where the coronavirus outbreak began and which saw the majority of COVID-19 cases in China. A recent report from WHO found that the fatality rate was 5.8% in Wuhan, compared with 0.7% in the rest of the country, Live Science previously reported.

Finally, the country may not be catching many of the mild cases of COVID-19. Often, as testing expands within a community, more mild cases are found, which lowers the overall death rate, Gordon said. This was the case in South Korea, which conducted more than 140,000 tests and found a fatality rate of 0.6%, according to Business Insider.

"We probably don't know how many people have actually become infected," Johnson said. People with more mild symptoms, or those who are younger, may not be going to get tested, she said. Johnson suspects that the true fatality rate in Italy is closer to the global fatality rate of 3.4%.

Italy has conducted a substantial number of tests — more than 42,000 as of Saturday (March 7), according to Al Jazeera. However there is likely "quite a sizeable outbreak" in the area, which would need even more testing to identify, Gordon said.

 

If I was an old, reading this kind of stuff, this virus would scare the shit out of me.  

Instead, as a man, I’m wondering which relatives I will be burying in the near future.   

[RollLeft 5040]

17 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

 

When you have the flu, do your doctors and nurses suit up like this to treat you?

Just stop, I never argued it is the flu.  The casual observer or poster to this point probably has been comparing it to the flu and not calling it the flu.  As you argued the president himself has compared it to the flu and he was advised by phd's and people in the know, smarter than i, and wasn't corrected to use different language or terminology.  So, that some poster on the interwebs, me, hasn't gotten the update not to say "flu" is no surprise.  Even if Covid-19 was a flesh eating disease and has killed the number of people china is reporting.  My question still remains has it been worth the damn panic this country is showing?    Viruses we shall no longer name kills 14-60k of people every year per the CDC.  Why the panic for this one disease?  Either way i expect more from those in control.  Say its some bad shit and thats why we are wearing body armor to treat people or tell people to calm the fuck down because the panic is stupid.  Its hurting people either way.   Its hurting more people than Covid-19 has impacted so far.  Either way they should step up and do a better job managing at least one side and its panic.   

Edited March 11, 2020 by RollLeft

[triplehorn 2664]

13 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

And Italy was doing more to stop it at 50 confirmed cases than we are doing at 1,000.

And China was at 2000 cases when aggressive social shutdown started, still climbed to 80k.  

China, SoKo, Japan are all using varying degrees of aggressive social isolation and testing and are way ahead of the curve in relation to the rest of the world.

[InkaUtexas 25869]

and we be acting like fucking Iran. 

[CooterBrown 18004]

24 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

AISD making decisions. Gotta applaud this one. Friend's daughter was supposed to go from our district to NY. Kid convinced (guilted) mom into saying no problem. District I live in is not one to make a decision like this. 

The health of our students, staff and families is one of our top priorities, and we want to keep everyone updated on what we’re doing as a district to mitigate the risk of the coronavirus (COVID-19). 

AISD is suspending all district-sponsored domestic travel to states where there is community-wide spread of the virus and where the local government has declared a state of public health emergency. Reported states, at this time, include California, Florida, Kentucky, Maryland, New York, Oregon, Washington and Utah.

https://www.austinisd.org/student-health/coronavirus

Lamar Middle School is sending kids to Indiana today for some performing arts thing.  That's not cancelled and IMO a bad idea.

 

[CheesePie 238]

3 minutes ago, RollLeft said:

Just stop, I never argued it is the flu.  The casual observer or poster to this point probably has been comparing it to the flu and not calling it the flu.  As you argued the president himself has compared it to the flu and he was advised by phd's and people in the know, smarter than i, and wasn't corrected to use different language or terminology.  So, that some poster on the interwebs, me, hasn't gotten the update not to say "flu" is no surprise.  Even if Covid-19 was a flesh eating disease and has killed the number of people china is reporting.  My question still remains has it been worth the damn panic this country is showing?    Viruses we shall no longer name kills 14-60k of people every year per the CDC.  Why the panic for this one disease?  Either way i expect more from those in control.  Say its some bad shit and thats why we are wearing body armor to treat people or tell people to calm the fuck down because the panic is stupid and its hurting many people.  Either way step up and do a better job managing the panic.   

When dear leader of U.S. offers differing opinions as to the severity of this disease than say, disease experts, confusion ensues. A unified message from the top would allow for a more sober reaction but, unfortunately for us, we do not get unified messages from our leaders and experts. Comparing this shit to the flu, even if only tangentially, only exacerbates the confusion because, much like this virus, the stupid comparisons are easily transmittable to those who are susceptible to ignorance.

[utee94 15807]

Just now, CooterBrown said:

Lamar Middle School is sending kids to Indiana today for some performing arts thing.  That's not cancelled and IMO a bad idea.

 

Completely agree.

Indiana sucks.

[elguapo 4586]

My question still remains has it been worth the damn panic this country is showing?    Viruses we shall no longer name kills 14-60k of people every year per the CDC.  Why the panic for this one disease?

Specifically where is all of this panic you are seeing that is apparently harming our country so badly?

[CooterBrown 18004]

18 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

See my post above. AISD has cancelled all trips. Like I told my college son, you can have spring break next year. Go clean your damn bong. 

No they haven't.  They've only cancelled trips to locations where an emergency has been declared.  It's a half-assed measure.

[Armybrat 40822]

51 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Start with stop comparing it to the fucking flu.   The flu nailed almost 3 million in Italy between October and January, and killed less than 250.   This virus has infected 10,000 in Italy in less than a month, and killed over 660.  

Listen to actual experts.

Stop putting people in prime time interviews on large cable news networks, who downplay it.   The olds are shaping their opinions on that stuff.  

Not me. 
I’ll be paying attention to real epidemiologists..... instead of Dr. Kumar who just said on Good Morning Austin, “Go head and travel”.

[Grade of D as in David 13253]

10 minutes ago, RollLeft said:

Just stop, I never argued it is the flu.  The casual observer or poster to this point probably has been comparing it to the flu and not calling it the flu.  As you argued the president himself has compared it to the flu and he was advised by phd's and people in the know, smarter than i, and wasn't corrected to use different language or terminology.  So, that some poster on the interwebs, me, hasn't gotten the update not to say "flu" is no surprise.  Even if Covid-19 was a flesh eating disease and has killed the number of people china is reporting.  My question still remains has it been worth the damn panic this country is showing?    Viruses we shall no longer name kills 14-60k of people every year per the CDC.  Why the panic for this one disease?  Either way i expect more from those in control.  Say its some bad shit and thats why we are wearing body armor to treat people or tell people to calm the fuck down because the panic is stupid.  Its hurting people either way.   Its hurting more people than Covid-19 has impacted so far.  Either way they should step up and do a better job managing at least one side and its panic.   

This is the problem. He has been corrected, but has not changed his messaging.

[Parliament 14245]

Completely agree.
Indiana sucks.

Woah there, Son. Evansville is a fine town.

[atomheartbevo 89628]

[InkaUtexas 25869]

2 minutes ago, CooterBrown said:

No they haven't.  They've only cancelled trips to locations where an emergency has been declared.  It's a half-assed measure.

Correct, my bad. Only places with states of emergency. 

And yes it is. 

[RollLeft 5040]

2 minutes ago, elguapo said:

Specifically where is all of this panic you are seeing that is apparently harming our country so badly?

Well the number of canceled events on mainstreet and the impact on wall st. speaks itself from my perspective.  

[HenryJames 66038]

 

[atomheartbevo 89628]

RollLeft, here’s the difference

[NoName 16351]

2 minutes ago, RollLeft said:

Just stop, I never argued it is the flu.  The casual observer or poster this point probably has been comparing it to the flu and not calling it the flu.  As you argued the president himself has compared it to the flu and he was advised by phd's and people in the know, smarter than i, and wasn't corrected to use different language or terminology.  So, that some poster on the interwebs, me, hasn't gotten the update not to say "flu" is no surprise.  Even if Covid-19 was a flesh eating disease and has killed the number of people china is reporting.  My question still remains has it been worth the damn panic this country is showing?    Viruses we shall no longer name kills 14-60k of people every year per the CDC.  Why the panic for this one disease?  Either way i expect more from those in control.  Say its some bad shit and thats why we are wearing body armor to treat people or tell people to calm the fuck down because the panic is stupid and its hurting many people.  Either way step up and do a better job managing the panic.   

learn to read.

 

here is what i said there, broken down into easily-digestible bullet points. this isn't that hard to understand.

• Coronavirus is more contagious than the flu, measured using R0 (R-naught) 
• Coronavirus has a higher case fatality rate (CFR) than the flu, even with it being artificially inflated it is going to be higher than the 0.1% flu (last year was 0.14%)
• Coronavirus patients have a higher acuity and require more healthcare resources than the flu
• Coronavirus does not (currently) have protocols for hospitalized patients based on best practice and research
• Coronavirus does not have a vaccine 
• Coronavirus is unknown if it is a seasonal virus (unlikely at this point that it is)

full text spoiler'd below

Spoiler

 

the common flu doesn't kill 5k a month. most of the deaths happen between October and Feb (but can run through April/May in some years) - so last year this was much closer to 10k / month during flu seasons

focusing on the current numbers is the wrong way to do it. from Sept 2018 to May 2019 there were more than 1.145 million flu tests conducted. currently in the United States we have tested about 8500 people.

the R0 for coronavirus is higher, meaning it infects more people.

the CFR for coronavirus is unknown - the flu is generally around 0.1% - last year it was estimated that 42.9 million people got the flu in some way or shape, so the CFR was 0.14% (about 61,200 died)

if those numbers hold at all with a (conservative) CFR of 0.2% for coronavirus this would be 85,800 deaths on 42.9 million infections.

the issue is we know the flu is seasonal. a vaccination exists. protocols for dealing with flu patients exist, along with best practices for it. 

we do not know if coronavirus is seasonal (it may not be), there is no vaccination (helping to limit the total deaths), there is no best practice for handling those who are sick (also helping to limit the total deaths), it is much more intense and the patients that are hospitalized have a higher acuity (requiring both a smaller nurse:patient ratio and longer stays - meaning that fewer beds are opening up)

this shit isn't the flu and a comparison across the board is terrible. Google isn't sending home it's 100k employees for the flu. they aren't cancelling SXSW or E3 for the flu. South Korea isn't testing 10k / day for the flu. china isn't putting ~75m on lockdown for the flu. italy and israel aren't cratering their tourism industries for the flu. they aren't making the VP a task force leader for the flu. people don't isolate for 14 days for the flu. the market doesn't crash because of the flu. 

this is not the flu in any way/shape or form. the reactions to it aren't the same, the preparedness isn't the same, the requirements or burden on the healthcare system isn't the same and the "worst case" is significantly worse than the flu.

we know what the flu is - both socially and medically. this isn't it. 

stop comparing this to the flu. 

 

[Brisketexan 105073]

Just stop, I never argued it is the flu.  The casual observer or poster to this point probably has been comparing it to the flu and not calling it the flu.  As you argued the president himself has compared it to the flu and he was advised by phd's and people in the know, smarter than i, and wasn't corrected to use different language or terminology.  So, that some poster on the interwebs, me, hasn't gotten the update not to say "flu" is no surprise.  Even if Covid-19 was a flesh eating disease and has killed the number of people china is reporting.  My question still remains has it been worth the damn panic this country is showing?    Viruses we shall no longer name kills 14-60k of people every year per the CDC.  Why the panic for this one disease?  Either way i expect more from those in control.  Say its some bad shit and thats why we are wearing body armor to treat people or tell people to calm the fuck down because the panic is stupid.  Its hurting people either way.   Its hurting more people than Covid-19 has impacted so far.  Either way they should step up and do a better job managing at least one side and its panic.   

Because at the rate of infection and CFR were looking at, it may kill well over a million of us. And remember, we went to war over an attack that killed 3000.

And, very importantly, the number of people who are likely to require critical care dwarfs their number of fatalities. Crashing our healthcare system is a huge fucking thing.

So, like, really fucking different than anything we’ve faced in a century.

[atomheartbevo 89628]

6 minutes ago, Armybrat said:

Not me. 
I’ll be paying attention to real epidemiologists..... instead of Dr. Kumar who just said on Good Morning Austin, “Go head and travel”.

The veterinarian they have on there seems more knowledgeable.

[BrickHorn 18216]

2 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

And, very importantly, the number of people who are likely to require critical care dwarfs

So far, that’s just RayDog.

[crash_davis 23101]

 

[RollLeft 5040]

3 minutes ago, NoName said:

learn to read.

 

here is what i said there, broken down into easily-digestible bullet points. this isn't that hard to understand.

• Coronavirus is more contagious than the flu, measured using R0 (R-naught) 
• Coronavirus has a higher case fatality rate (CFR) than the flu, even with it being artificially inflated it is going to be higher than the 0.1% flu (last year was 0.14%)
• Coronavirus patients have a higher acuity and require more healthcare resources than the flu
• Coronavirus does not (currently) have protocols for hospitalized patients based on best practice and research
• Coronavirus does not have a vaccine 
• Coronavirus is unknown if it is a seasonal virus (unlikely at this point that it is)

full text spoiler'd below

  Reveal hidden contents

 

the common flu doesn't kill 5k a month. most of the deaths happen between October and Feb (but can run through April/May in some years) - so last year this was much closer to 10k / month during flu seasons

focusing on the current numbers is the wrong way to do it. from Sept 2018 to May 2019 there were more than 1.145 million flu tests conducted. currently in the United States we have tested about 8500 people.

the R0 for coronavirus is higher, meaning it infects more people.

the CFR for coronavirus is unknown - the flu is generally around 0.1% - last year it was estimated that 42.9 million people got the flu in some way or shape, so the CFR was 0.14% (about 61,200 died)

if those numbers hold at all with a (conservative) CFR of 0.2% for coronavirus this would be 85,800 deaths on 42.9 million infections.

the issue is we know the flu is seasonal. a vaccination exists. protocols for dealing with flu patients exist, along with best practices for it. 

we do not know if coronavirus is seasonal (it may not be), there is no vaccination (helping to limit the total deaths), there is no best practice for handling those who are sick (also helping to limit the total deaths), it is much more intense and the patients that are hospitalized have a higher acuity (requiring both a smaller nurse:patient ratio and longer stays - meaning that fewer beds are opening up)

this shit isn't the flu and a comparison across the board is terrible. Google isn't sending home it's 100k employees for the flu. they aren't cancelling SXSW or E3 for the flu. South Korea isn't testing 10k / day for the flu. china isn't putting ~75m on lockdown for the flu. italy and israel aren't cratering their tourism industries for the flu. they aren't making the VP a task force leader for the flu. people don't isolate for 14 days for the flu. the market doesn't crash because of the flu. 

this is not the flu in any way/shape or form. the reactions to it aren't the same, the preparedness isn't the same, the requirements or burden on the healthcare system isn't the same and the "worst case" is significantly worse than the flu.

we know what the flu is - both socially and medically. this isn't it. 

stop comparing this to the flu. 

 

Nothing new to me here.  You are arguing with yourself.

[atomheartbevo 89628]

For fucks sake 

 

[TexasGolf 4896]

39 minutes ago, NoName said:

no offense but you are quite clearly missing the point about all of this.

the common flu doesn't kill 5k a month. most of the deaths happen between October and Feb (but can run through April/May in some years) - so last year this was much closer to 10k / month during flu seasons

focusing on the current numbers is the wrong way to do it. from Sept 2018 to May 2019 there were more than 1.145 million flu tests conducted. currently in the United States we have tested about 8500 people.

the R0 for coronavirus is higher, meaning it infects more people.

the CFR for coronavirus is unknown - the flu is generally around 0.1% - last year it was estimated that 42.9 million people got the flu in some way or shape, so the CFR was 0.14% (about 61,200 died)

if those numbers hold at all with a (conservative) CFR of 0.2% for coronavirus this would be 85,800 deaths on 42.9 million infections.

the issue is we know the flu is seasonal. a vaccination exists. protocols for dealing with flu patients exist, along with best practices for it. 

we do not know if coronavirus is seasonal (it may not be), there is no vaccination (helping to limit the total deaths), there is no best practice for handling those who are sick (also helping to limit the total deaths), it is much more intense and the patients that are hospitalized have a higher acuity (requiring both a smaller nurse:patient ratio and longer stays - meaning that fewer beds are opening up)

this shit isn't the flu and a comparison across the board is terrible. Google isn't sending home it's 100k employees for the flu. they aren't cancelling SXSW or E3 for the flu. South Korea isn't testing 10k / day for the flu. china isn't putting ~75m on lockdown for the flu. italy and israel aren't cratering their tourism industries for the flu. they aren't making the VP a task force leader for the flu. people don't isolate for 14 days for the flu. the market doesn't crash because of the flu. 

this is not the flu in any way/shape or form. the reactions to it aren't the same, the preparedness isn't the same, the requirements or burden on the healthcare system isn't the same and the "worst case" is significantly worse than the flu.

we know what the flu is - both socially and medically. this isn't it. 

stop comparing this to the flu. 

 

How does this compare to H1N1  2009-10 ?   1 in 6 americans infected/1 in 5 world wide  CDC says H1N1 infected 61 million Americans during the pandemic and killed around 12,000.

will this be similar ?

[MNLonghornFUKM 8817]

11 minutes ago, elguapo said:

Specifically where is all of this panic you are seeing that is apparently harming our country so badly?

he cant buy TP anymore because those of us who have been watching and preparing for this for 7 weeks now started buying it then...1 pack at a time

[Beau Vine 54208]

8 hours ago, Girdwood said:

Trump actually is behind the coronavirus pandemic, just like Bush steered Hurricane Katrina into New Orleans in 2005. Motherfuckers.

@immamac

Is that how you do it, pussy?

[Girdwood 118]

1 minute ago, TexasGolf said:

How does this compare to H1N1  2009-10 ?   1 in 6 americans infected/1 in 5 world wide  CDC says H1N1 infected 61 million Americans during the pandemic and killed around 12,000.

will this be similar ?

Probably, but there was a different politcal party in power at the time so the media didn't have an agenda to spread panic.

[NoName 16351]

1 minute ago, RollLeft said:

Nothing new to me here.  You are arguing with yourself.

So just to be clear...none of this COVID-19 data is new to you but in the post i replied to you said

Quote

Viruses we shall no longer name (flu) kills 14-60k of people every year per the CDC.  Why the panic for this one disease? 

Which one is it - are you aware of those facts and just do not understand any of the terms I used?

[Girdwood 118]

1 minute ago, Beau Vine said:

@immamac

Is that how you do it, pussy?

There's plenty of people mentioning politicians names on this thread. Pence, Trump, etc

[HenryJames 66038]

6 minutes ago, BrickHorn said:

So far, that’s just RayDog.

[NoName 16351]

3 minutes ago, TexasGolf said:

How does this compare to H1N1  2009-10 ?   1 in 6 americans infected/1 in 5 world wide  CDC says H1N1 infected 61 million Americans during the pandemic and killed around 12,000.

will this be similar ?

H1N1 R0 was evidently 1.4-1.6 - vs Coronavirus at 2.2

H1N1 CFR was evidently 0.48% (normal flu is usually estimated to be ~0.1%) - vs Coronavirus at ??? 

 

[Dahobbs 17526]

18 minutes ago, RollLeft said:

 Viruses we shall no longer name kills 14-60k of people every year per the CDC.  Why the panic for this one disease? 

Because the corona virus, if allowed to expand unabated, will not kill 14 to 60 thousand Americans. It will kill many more. And by many, I mean it quite literally has the potential to kill over one million Americans over the next two years. And it has the potential to hospitalize millions more. Even using very conservative estimates, the corona virus will likely kill 200,000 Americans over the next year or two.  You know how China slowed it (slowed, not stopped)? A massive quarantine of 75 million people and an almost complete halt to their economy. You know how South Korea has contained it so far? Massive testing of thousands per day, quarantines, and even then they have areas where their very good healthcare system is currently overrun. You know how Italy contained it? No, no you don't, because they haven't been able to and are overwhelmed. How about Iran? 

Seriously, you're willful ignorance and blindness here is fucking amazing. It it worse than the flu, much worse. Stop comparing it to the flu. 

[utee94 15807]

1 minute ago, Girdwood said:

Probably, but there was a different politcal party in power at the time so the media didn't have an agenda to spread panic.

Just stop.  You don't like it when "the other side" does it, but you're going to do it?  I'll say it to "both sides" one more time--

 

NOBODY GIVES A SHIT ABOUT YOUR STUPID BULLSHIT POLITICAL OPINION.  TAKE IT TO THE CLOAK ROOM WITH ALL OF THE OTHER STUPID DIPSHITS THAT BELIEVE ARGUING ABOUT THIS CRAP ON A MESSAGE BOARD IS AN INTELLIGENT DECISION.

Here's a hint-- its not.  If you're arguing politics on a message board, you are, by definition, stupid.  But at least there's a place on this message board for stupid people to congregate and discuss their stupid opinions.  Use it.

Thank you for your support.

[Deej 76755]

7 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

For fucks sake 

 

[RollLeft 5040]

3 minutes ago, NoName said:

So just to be clear...none of this COVID-19 data is new to you but in the post i replied to you said

Which one is it - are you aware of those facts and just do not understand any of the terms I used?

Which one is it?  Am i on block or are you wasting time?    

[Apep 645]

The first presumptive case in Tarrant County is the rector at Trinity Episcopal. https://www.fortworthtrinity.org/about/news/covid-19-and-trinity/?fbclid=IwAR2gsK-IdFu2z_LyOxyTZD_vue-mQYMGvjcOXmIlo1nfdwGmBuzp9uw-cao

Dear people of Trinity,

 

We have learned that Father Robert Pace has the first presumptive positive case of COVID-19 (coronavirus) in Tarrant County. Father Robert is hospitalized in isolation. His wife, Jill Walters, has tested negative, but will remain in self-quarantine at home for 14 days.

 

He has not been identified to the media yet, so please hold this information in confidence for now. 

 

Please pray for Father Robert and Jill. The bishop is in touch with them and offering pastoral care.

 

The wardens, diocesan office, and our staff are working closely with Tarrant County Public Health to insure everyone's health and safety. To that end, we are canceling all worship services this Sunday, March 15. Those of you who were present at the Lenten program on March 4, please be alert for a phone call from Tarrant County Public Health Department to check on your health and to discuss what you should be monitoring yourselves for. The calls will probably begin Wednesday afternoon. After initial discussions with the public health officials, the rest of the congregation should understand that, based in exposure to Father Robert, they are at no risk.

 

We are exploring ways for us to gather in community in an online worship service.

 

Please direct any questions to Sarah Martinez, via email, preferably. Any media inquiries should go to Sarah or Katie Sherrod, the diocesan director of communications.

 

Be assured that Father Robert has been appropriately careful. He went to his physician when he began feeling ill on 2/27. He tested negative to the flu twice. 

On the day of the election, Father Robert had not been in the church building or office for 5 days. He left the building on Thursday morning, 2/27 and did not return to the building until late afternoon on Wednesday, 3/4.  The elections people brought in their own tables, chairs, and election equipment into the Parish Hall for use on Election Day.

On his return to the building, he, the associate rector, and a deacon wiped all hard surfaces in his offices and commonly touched surfaces in his office with Clorox wipes. After Pace led the Wednesday night class, the associate rector wiped the lectern, microphone, chair, and piano bench with Clorox wipes just to be extra cautious.  His exposure to anyone being within 3 feet of him was very limited - mainly to the associate rector and the deacon. He was appropriately cautious also and had been fever-free for 24 hours.

He has not been in the building again since Wednesday evening 3/4 at 7:45pm when he went home.

 

Again, please pray for Father Robert and Jill. Pray for his health care team. As Bishop Scott Mayer said, "Love one another. Pray for one another. Stay calm. And wash your hands."

 

~ Scott Millican, Senior Warden

 

A PRAYER FOR QUIET CONFIDENCE

O God of peace, who hast taught us that in returning and rest we shall be saved, in quietness and confidence shall be our strength: By the might of thy Spirit lift us, we pray thee, to thy presence, where we may be still and know that thou art God; through Jesus Christ our Lord. Amen.

Book of Common Prayer, p. 832

Please note the irony of putting something on their website and then asking the people to keep it in confidence.

 

[Anastasis 23463]

11 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

For fucks sake 

 

Totally disconnected from reality. 

[MNLonghornFUKM 8817]

3 minutes ago, utee94 said:

Just stop.  You don't like it when "the other side" does it, but you're going to do it?  I'll say it to "both sides" one more time--

 

NOBODY GIVES A SHIT ABOUT YOUR STUPID BULLSHIT POLITICAL OPINION.  TAKE IT TO THE CLOAK ROOM WITH ALL OF THE OTHER STUPID DIPSHITS THAT BELIEVE ARGUING ABOUT THIS CRAP ON A MESSAGE BOARD IS AN INTELLIGENT DECISION.

Here's a hint-- its not.  If you're arguing politics on a message board, you are, by definition, stupid.  But at least there's a place on this message board for stupid people to congregate and discuss their stupid opinions.  Use it.

Thank you for your support.

its awesome to watch. he posted a gif saying just this some odd 500 posts ago and 99% of his posts since he posted a gif a political driven. 

[Girdwood 118]

5 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

Because the corona virus, if allowed to expand unabated, will not kill 14 to 60 thousand Americans. It will kill many more. And by many, I mean it quite literally has the potential to kill over one million Americans over the next two years. And it has the potential to hospitalize millions more. Even using very conservative estimates, the corona virus will likely kill 200,000 Americans over the next year or two.  You know how China slowed it (slowed, not stopped)? A massive quarantine of 75 million people and an almost complete halt to their economy. You know how South Korea has contained it so far? Massive testing of thousands per day, quarantines, and even then they have areas where their very good healthcare system is currently overrun. You know how Italy contained it? No, no you don't, because they haven't been able to and are overwhelmed. How about Iran? 

Seriously, you're willful ignorance and blindness here is fucking amazing. It it worse than the flu, much worse. Stop comparing it to the flu. 

Show your work

[Trey3216 15345]

3 minutes ago, Apep said:

The first presumptive case in Tarrant County is the rector at Trinity Episcopal. https://www.fortworthtrinity.org/about/news/covid-19-and-trinity/?fbclid=IwAR2gsK-IdFu2z_LyOxyTZD_vue-mQYMGvjcOXmIlo1nfdwGmBuzp9uw-cao

 

  Hide contents

 

Dear people of Trinity,

 

We have learned that Father Robert Pace has the first presumptive positive case of COVID-19 (coronavirus) in Tarrant County. Father Robert is hospitalized in isolation. His wife, Jill Walters, has tested negative, but will remain in self-quarantine at home for 14 days.

 

He has not been identified to the media yet, so please hold this information in confidence for now. 

 

Please pray for Father Robert and Jill. The bishop is in touch with them and offering pastoral care.

 

The wardens, diocesan office, and our staff are working closely with Tarrant County Public Health to insure everyone's health and safety. To that end, we are canceling all worship services this Sunday, March 15. Those of you who were present at the Lenten program on March 4, please be alert for a phone call from Tarrant County Public Health Department to check on your health and to discuss what you should be monitoring yourselves for. The calls will probably begin Wednesday afternoon. After initial discussions with the public health officials, the rest of the congregation should understand that, based in exposure to Father Robert, they are at no risk.

 

We are exploring ways for us to gather in community in an online worship service.

 

Please direct any questions to Sarah Martinez, via email, preferably. Any media inquiries should go to Sarah or Katie Sherrod, the diocesan director of communications.

 

Be assured that Father Robert has been appropriately careful. He went to his physician when he began feeling ill on 2/27. He tested negative to the flu twice. 

On the day of the election, Father Robert had not been in the church building or office for 5 days. He left the building on Thursday morning, 2/27 and did not return to the building until late afternoon on Wednesday, 3/4.  The elections people brought in their own tables, chairs, and election equipment into the Parish Hall for use on Election Day.

On his return to the building, he, the associate rector, and a deacon wiped all hard surfaces in his offices and commonly touched surfaces in his office with Clorox wipes. After Pace led the Wednesday night class, the associate rector wiped the lectern, microphone, chair, and piano bench with Clorox wipes just to be extra cautious.  His exposure to anyone being within 3 feet of him was very limited - mainly to the associate rector and the deacon. He was appropriately cautious also and had been fever-free for 24 hours.

He has not been in the building again since Wednesday evening 3/4 at 7:45pm when he went home.

 

Again, please pray for Father Robert and Jill. Pray for his health care team. As Bishop Scott Mayer said, "Love one another. Pray for one another. Stay calm. And wash your hands."

 

~ Scott Millican, Senior Warden

 

A PRAYER FOR QUIET CONFIDENCE

O God of peace, who hast taught us that in returning and rest we shall be saved, in quietness and confidence shall be our strength: By the might of thy Spirit lift us, we pray thee, to thy presence, where we may be still and know that thou art God; through Jesus Christ our Lord. Amen.

Book of Common Prayer, p. 832

 

Please note the irony of putting something on their website and then asking the people to keep it in confidence.

 

 

I'm sure that Karen and Ken will keep that away from the media  

[Girdwood 118]

9 minutes ago, NoName said:

H1N1 R0 was evidently 1.4-1.6 - vs Coronavirus at 2.2

H1N1 CFR was evidently 0.48% (normal flu is usually estimated to be ~0.1%) - vs Coronavirus at ??? 

 

We have no clue what coronavirus CFR is at this point. Everyone is just guessing.

[The People’s Elbow 707]

Just now, Girdwood said:

We have no clue what coronavirus CFR is at this point. Everyone is just guessing.

Your next username should be Shamewood. 

[ShaggyBevo RIP 3868]

2 hours ago, Casual Encounter said:

These Dayton dipshits realize they never have to go to class, right?

They have mandatory attendance for first year students.  Miss 4 classes and you get to see the Dean of Students.

[Texas Jeff 1945]

2 hours ago, TexasGolf said:

Per this graph, we are 11 days behind Italy  get more toilet paper 

That graph shows infections going up roughly an order of magnitude every ten days.  South Korea bent the curve right around where the USA will be in seven days.  This next week is critical.  We need to slow it down.

But, if it is going to grow by an order of magnitude every ten days and we assume 60% of us will get it, then it will look like this:

  March 11th, around 1000 cases

  March 21st, around 10,000 cases

  March 31st, around 100,000 cases

  April 10th, around 1,000,000 cases

  April 20th, around 10,000,000 cases

  April 30th, around 100,000,000 cases

If the growth rate continues, somewhere between the end of April and mid-May we will have "peak corona" in the US, where the virus runs out of new targets.  Most of the cases will be infected in mid-late April and recover sometime in May.  After that we can turn the machines on again and resume consuming mass quantities...

It's hard to believe the growth rate will continue at that pace.  Most of the people I meet have stopped shaking hands and stopped sitting close together.  Social distancing will have an effect, the question is how much and will it be soon enough to help the health system manage the strain.

 

[Girdwood 118]

About to get crowdsourced anyway

[Dahobbs 17526]

13 minutes ago, NoName said:

H1N1 R0 was evidently 1.4-1.6 - vs Coronavirus at 2.2

H1N1 CFR was evidently 0.48% (normal flu is usually estimated to be ~0.1%) - vs Coronavirus at ??? 

 

Where are you getting that data on H1N1's CFR? Everything I've seen says that ended up with a CFR less than the typical flu (but it hit children hard and I believe had a higher hospitalization incidence). 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_flu_pandemic

however, with about 150,000–575,000 fatalities, it had a much lower case fatality rate of 0.01-0.08%