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Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

InkaUtexas

By InkaUtexas
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Uncle Boobs
Uncle Boobs

Against my better judgment and several beers deep, I have taken you up on this, potentially ending my streak of totally worthless posts. I have done 3 and 7 day averages only on the Worldometer data. 

Brisketexan
Brisketexan

Daughter’s home. A little PTSD, we’re picking up Whataburger to help.

Coelenterate Fuccboi
Coelenterate Fuccboi

Just try and imagine GreenspointTexas being the person to intubate you as you fight for your life against COVID-19. You’re laying there gasping for air while he chastises you for all the things you li

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Beau Vine

Beau Vine 54881

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Posted
12 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

They have a population of 1.4B vs a US population of 330mm. That's roughly equivilent of 235 cases for us. 

Are you Brian mother-fucking WIlliams or do you just suck horribly at math on your own?  

330M/1.4B = .2357 * 200K (gonna give you the benefit of the doubt and assume that extra 0 was a typo) = 47,143

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ImissWallyPryor

ImissWallyPryor 9046

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, NoName said:

learn to read.

 

here is what i said there, broken down into easily-digestible bullet points. this isn't that hard to understand.

  • Coronavirus is more contagious than the flu, measured using R0 (R-naught) 
  • Coronavirus has a higher case fatality rate (CFR) than the flu, even with it being artificially inflated it is going to be higher than the 0.1% flu (last year was 0.14%)
  • Coronavirus patients have a higher acuity and require more healthcare resources than the flu
  • Coronavirus does not (currently) have protocols for hospitalized patients based on best practice and research
  • Coronavirus does not have a vaccine 
  • Coronavirus is unknown if it is a seasonal virus (unlikely at this point that it is)

full text spoiler'd below

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the common flu doesn't kill 5k a month. most of the deaths happen between October and Feb (but can run through April/May in some years) - so last year this was much closer to 10k / month during flu seasons

focusing on the current numbers is the wrong way to do it. from Sept 2018 to May 2019 there were more than 1.145 million flu tests conducted. currently in the United States we have tested about 8500 people.

the R0 for coronavirus is higher, meaning it infects more people.

the CFR for coronavirus is unknown - the flu is generally around 0.1% - last year it was estimated that 42.9 million people got the flu in some way or shape, so the CFR was 0.14% (about 61,200 died)

if those numbers hold at all with a (conservative) CFR of 0.2% for coronavirus this would be 85,800 deaths on 42.9 million infections.

the issue is we know the flu is seasonal. a vaccination exists. protocols for dealing with flu patients exist, along with best practices for it. 

we do not know if coronavirus is seasonal (it may not be), there is no vaccination (helping to limit the total deaths), there is no best practice for handling those who are sick (also helping to limit the total deaths), it is much more intense and the patients that are hospitalized have a higher acuity (requiring both a smaller nurse:patient ratio and longer stays - meaning that fewer beds are opening up)

this shit isn't the flu and a comparison across the board is terrible. Google isn't sending home it's 100k employees for the flu. they aren't cancelling SXSW or E3 for the flu. South Korea isn't testing 10k / day for the flu. china isn't putting ~75m on lockdown for the flu. italy and israel aren't cratering their tourism industries for the flu. they aren't making the VP a task force leader for the flu. people don't isolate for 14 days for the flu. the market doesn't crash because of the flu. 

this is not the flu in any way/shape or form. the reactions to it aren't the same, the preparedness isn't the same, the requirements or burden on the healthcare system isn't the same and the "worst case" is significantly worse than the flu.

we know what the flu is - both socially and medically. this isn't it. 

stop comparing this to the flu. 

 

Yet you compare it to the flu, which is okay if it is done to put things in context.  The expert in the Joe Rogan video did just that to draw upon similarities (means of contracting) and differences (many, all of which lead to higher rates of infection due to no vaccine and a CFR 10-15 times worse).  It's absolutely wrong to say it's just another variation of the flu, but comparing and contrasting can help people put it in context.

But, there's a good possibility that  I have too high of a level of trust in people to not misinterpret things.

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Bozo_Casanova

Bozo_Casanova 26684

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Posted (edited)
19 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Fauci telling the nation that we should have already been moving aggressively, and we should be acting right now.  

What the hell just happened at the end of the hearing? They left?

Also - 

And listen up, you fucking snowflakes. I'm not "Cloak Rooming" this thread. We have government for shit like this. A competent and highly coordinated Federal response will literally make a life or death difference for 100's of thousands of people. Sorry if that hurts your fee fee.

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HenryJames

HenryJames 66284

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

What the hell just happened at the end of the hearing? They left?

Also - 

And listen up, you fucking snowflakes. I'm not "Cloak Rooming" this thread. We have government for shit like this. A competent and highly coordinated Federal response will literally make a life or death difference for 100's of thousands of people. Sorry if that hurts your fee fee.

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 90057

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

What the hell just happened at the end of the hearing? They left?

Also - 

 

WH says it was scheduled yesterday.  Others saying it was an emergency meeting called just now, even though the task force meets at 3:30.  

Whatever happened, it was rushed.  

Also, Chip Roy knows he’s got a lot of retired olds in his district.  A lot of retired military.   

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Bozo_Casanova

Bozo_Casanova 26684

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Beau Vine said:

Are you Brian mother-fucking WIlliams or do you just suck horribly at math on your own?  

330M/1.4B = .2357 * 200K (gonna give you the benefit of the doubt and assume that extra 0 was a typo) = 47,143

I'm watching C-Span while participating in 2 simultaneous conference calls, my first answer was potato.

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Pato del Muerto

Pato del Muerto 52886

Posted
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10 minutes ago, Beau Vine said:

Are you Brian mother-fucking WIlliams or do you just suck horribly at math on your own?  

330M/1.4B = .2357 * 200K (gonna give you the benefit of the doubt and assume that extra 0 was a typo) = 47,143

The Chinese number in the post you are referencing was 2000 based on previous posts (the k being superfluous)

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Goredho

Goredho 17512

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3 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

When asked how many will get it, Fauci’s answer should be sobering: “If we are complacent and don't do really aggressive containment and mitigation, the number could go way up...many, many millions."

The airliner of willful ignorance is about to get a lesson in physics from a mountain.

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heso

heso 2822

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6 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

When asked how many will get it, Fauci’s answer should be sobering: “If we are complacent and don't do really aggressive containment and mitigation, the number could go way up...many, many millions."

That’s the shit people need to hear.

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crimsonlonghorn

crimsonlonghorn 2310

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Girdwood said:

We have no clue what coronavirus CFR is at this point. Everyone is just guessing.

Dude, sometimes the smart thing to do is just shut up. I agree with you on a lot of this stuff but you’re heading for a shaggy implosion. Step away from the computer for 24 hours. 

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crimsonlonghorn

crimsonlonghorn 2310

Posted
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6 minutes ago, Thetexashammer said:

I've had the sniffles pretty consistently for about a week. I'm starting to think it's the C virus.

I think early estimates of R0 were significantly lower than actual.

My understanding is that runny nose is actually not a symptom. You’re in the clear. 

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JOSEYWALES66

JOSEYWALES66 1836

Posted
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1 minute ago, Cheeseweasel said:

This will be the lasting impact of corona. People will realize that 99.9% of the shit they do can be done at home at 1/10th the cost. Fuck overpriced Universities. 

We were just debating that very issue.  Apparently there is software that can be used to monitor online test takers which might help alleviate the cheating issue. 

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triplehorn

triplehorn 2664

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47 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

They have a population of 1.4B vs a US population of 330mm. That's roughly equivilent of 235 cases for us. 

This German expert offers another way to try to calculate real time number as a starting point for where we could end up based on date strict mass social isolation starts:

translated:

"Politicians and health authorities are stressing these days that the # coronavirus infection numbers are "snapshots". This is wrong: the numbers reflect the status about 9 days ago (5 d incubation period + test + notification), with no undisclosed figure. # Corona Holidays"

So my equation on the previous page is probably wrong, i.e. China had fewer doubles and a higher actual starting case rate before leveling occurred post-mass quaratine.

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Beau Vine

Beau Vine 54881

Posted
Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

This will be the lasting impact of corona. People will realize that 99.9% of the shit they do can be done at home at 1/10th the cost. Fuck overpriced Universities. 

TCU is not getting 90% cheaper because it's online.  

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Gene Parmesan

Gene Parmesan 4023

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

This will be the lasting impact of corona. People will realize that 99.9% of the shit they do can be done at home at 1/10th the cost. Fuck overpriced Universities. 

You think those universities are looking for a way to pass savings down to the students?

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Captainant

Captainant 27977

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Posted

This is really fucking concerning that the healthcare professionals charged with actually implementing a response got yanked out of the hearing immediately after contradicting the stance of the president and the WH. This is a shit show.

No CR, but this is the opposite of what a coordinated and active response to a pandemic looks like. People's lives are at risk because of all of the uncertainty stemming from this fucking clown fiesta.

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Skipper

Skipper 6320

Posted
Posted
Just now, Captainant said:

This is really fucking concerning that the healthcare professionals charged with actually implementing a response got yanked out of the hearing immediately after contradicting the stance of the president and the WH. This is a shit show.

No CR, but this is the opposite of what a coordinated and active response to a pandemic looks like. People's lives are at risk because of all of the uncertainty stemming from this fucking clown fiesta.

The messaging we receive from the president and VP today after these meetings are extremely important.  If we continue to get mixed messages it's going to be beyond obvious what the administration's priority is.   I really wish this shit wasn't hitting during an election year.  Politics need to take a backseat right now and leaders need to lead.

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