Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

[Underdog 28,771]

3 minutes ago, utee94 said:

I only remember him on TV saying:

"From the University of Texas Health Science Center in Houston... I'm Doctor Red Duke."

 

 

That and his porn 'stache. 

[Macanudo 13,010]

4 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

And where Doctor Red Duke was on duty that day, and worked on Governor Connally.  

Red supposedly looked at JFK, then Connally and back to JFK and said (pointing to JFK) "That boy's dead.  Let's work on this other fella."

[NoName 16,397]

Just now, Hank_Hill said:

And it’s a shit show on the best of days.

sure, but if you are REALLY sick or thisclose to dying this is where you want to go. not BSW Plano (just as a random example)...

[Hank_Hill 18,894]

Just now, NoName said:

sure, but if you are REALLY sick or thisclose to dying this is where you want to go. not BSW Plano (just as a random example)...

Oh 100%. It’s its own form of controlled chaos.

[Deej 76,903]

The powers that be decided to remain open throughout this, but we are now empowered to chastise anyone we see not washing their hands. 

[Constant 6,754]

2 minutes ago, Hank_Hill said:

And it’s a shit show on the best of days.

Yes, it is. 

[Loco 3,754]

 

[Steamboat1874 4,086]

Man oh man.....

When I turned to page two of the sports page this morning this is what it showed for TV listings for Friday.....

PGA Tour Golf - Now cancelled

Some German soccer match

And some soccer match from Liga MX

That's it....that's the list.

Fuck !

 

 

 

[NoName 16,397]

 

 

[Post Oak 20,261]

54 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

Woodway H-E-B parking lot more than half full at 6:45 this morning 

Got a curbside at Valley Mills today.  Fingers crossed

[Skipper 6,197]

9 hours ago, 2300 Nueces said:

Once the bankruptcies start....  there is no stopping complete systematic failure.  These places have no patrons.  If they have revolvers (revolving credit), they have been pulling out the cash and will default.  It's already started.

Exactly what experience do you have in the bankruptcy or finance industry to opine on this?  Because I do this work for a living.   I expect workouts and bankruptcies but I fully expect lenders to kick the can down the road, provide DIPS, fund on budgets, etc. in most instances until we figure out how this is going to play out.  Lenders are like everything else right now.  Shell shocked.   New deals are being delayed left and right but I'm not following your path to "hoarding cash" at all.

[utee94 15,860]

2 minutes ago, Post Oak said:

Got a curbside at Valley Mills today.  Fingers crossed

Be sure to check on the app where they say what they don't have, or substituted.  I'm hoping the best for you but at least be sure to be aware before heading over.

[NoName 16,397]

not backing this guy, and totally ignoring his political ties - just saw it RT'd into my thread and it had been asked here a few times + I don't pay for WaPo...

160k vents available for patient care

 

 

[Js1 85,565]

4 minutes ago, Skipper said:

Exactly what experience do you have in the bankruptcy or finance industry to opine on this?  Because I do this work for a living.   I expect workouts and bankruptcies but I fully expect lenders to kick the can down the road, provide DIPS, fund on budgets, etc. in most instances until we figure out how this is going to play out.  Lenders are like everything else right now.  Shell shocked.   New deals are being delayed left and right but I'm not following your path to "hoarding cash" at all.

There’s paranoid and REALLY paranoid tin foil hat crazy. 

The government is not going to let the finance and banking industries crumble. Not in an election year. 

[Js1 85,565]

1 minute ago, NoName said:

not backing this guy, and totally ignoring his political ties - just saw it RT'd into my thread and it had been asked here a few times + I don't pay for WaPo...

160k vents available for patient care

 

 

There’s a shortage 

 

[Skipper 6,197]

Just now, Js1 said:

There’s paranoid and REALLY paranoid tin foil hat crazy. 

The government is not going to let the finance and banking industries crumble. Not in an election year. 

Exactly.   

[GabrielsHorn 2,186]

10 minutes ago, Loco said:

 

It has been a fiasco from the federal government, but I disagree with him on this:

Quote

"Without testing, you have no idea how extensive the infection is. You can't isolate people. You can't do anything," he says. "And so then we're left with a completely different set of choices. We have to shut schools, events and everything down, because that's the only tool available to us until we get testing back up. It's been stunning to me how bad the federal response has been."

Has any major country been able to do anything to contain the virus without going to those measures? It seems like the virus' ability to hide for such a long time makes it a nightmare to contain once it gets to your country, and the only remedy is to truly practice social distancing and isolate people as much as possible. Even South Korea which is held as the gold standard, cancelled schools through March and generally cancelled large gatherings a la what we are currently seeing.

[Captainant 27,760]

1 minute ago, Js1 said:

The government is not going to let the finance and banking industries crumble. Not in an election year. 

The fed dumped another one and a half trillion into the market yesterday and it still closed -10%. At this point, it's not clear the government can do anything about any aspect of CV19. Their response has been a day late and a dollar short for more than a month now. 

[SmokeyTheBear 5,562]

3 hours ago, crimsonlonghorn said:

https://babylonbee.com/news/nations-nerds-wake-up-in-utopia-where-everyone-stays-inside-sports-canceled-social-interaction-forbidden

 

As an introvert, I'm ready for the Introversion-olution due to Coronapocolypse. While extroverts go crazy with minimal interaction, we grow stronger. 

[Post Oak 20,261]

8 minutes ago, utee94 said:

Be sure to check on the app where they say what they don't have, or substituted.  I'm hoping the best for you but at least be sure to be aware before heading over.

Yep. When I was placing my order I knew there's going to be slim pickings.  

You couldn't even order TP

[JOSEYWALES66 1,805]

Roche Coronavirus Test

FDA issues emergency authorization for their test which gives a result in 3.5 hours.

 

[Js1 85,565]

1 minute ago, Post Oak said:

Yep. When I was placing my order I knew there's going to be slim pickings.  

You couldn't even order TP

Amazon Fresh was fine on produce and meat. Frozen kind of picked over, no TP. Shit I had to pay $7 for some organic Q-tips or some shit. 

[Larry T. Spider 1,747]

Sanjay Gupta is on cnn saying we have 74,000 ventilators. How can the numbers from different people so off?

[NoName 16,397]

NYT Upshot: Here’s the Biggest Thing to Worry About With Coronavirus

this is nothing SUPER new to those of us who have been following this thread - but if you are new or want to see it posted somewhere specifically this is it

Quote

 

A crucial thing to understand about the coronavirus threat — and it’s playing out grimly in Italy — is the difference between the total number of people who might get sick and the number who might get sick at the same time. Our country has only 2.8 hospital beds per 1,000 people. That’s fewer than in Italy (3.2), China (4.3) and South Korea (12.3), all of which have had struggles. More important, there are only so many intensive care beds and ventilators.

It’s estimated that we have about 45,000 intensive care unit beds in the United States. In a moderate outbreak, about 200,000 Americans would need one.

A recent report from the Center for Health Security at Johns Hopkins estimated that there were about 160,000 ventilators available for patient care. That may seem like a lot, and under normal circumstances, it is. Pandemics, however, change the calculations.

 

Quote

 

Hospitals don’t survive financially in the United States by keeping beds open and equipment idle. They have enough equipment to be cost-effective, but still retain capacity to care for extra people in emergencies. But those emergencies do not account for what we are seeing now. It’s very possible that many of the ventilators are being used right now for patients with other illnesses. They’re also not mobile, and local outbreaks will quickly surpass the numbers of ventilators and respiratory therapists.

Moreover, if a pandemic more closely followed the model of the Spanish flu outbreak of 1918, we would need more than 740,000 ventilators.

Many people are comparing this virus to the flu. The thing to remember, though, is that the influenza numbers are spread out over eight months or more. They don’t increase exponentially over the course of weeks, as the cases of Covid-19 are doing right now.

 

 

 

Edited March 13, 2020 by NoName

[NoName 16,397]

Just now, Larry T. Spider said:

Sanjay Gupta is on cnn saying we have 74,000 ventilators. How can the numbers from different people so off?

this is 100% estimates in both cases. lots of vendors, lots of vents are rented/not owned by facilities, etc

there isn't a "single source of truth" on these kind of things

[triplehorn 2,664]

Testing is not helpful as of right now.  People need to act as if they can be infected or spread it easily and unknowingly.  We know from China, SK, HK, Singapore, Japan, Taiwan that a radical shift towards social distancing is the only effective thing we can do to slow this down.  The thing about this bug is you're contagious for 2-3 days before you're symptomatic:

Spoiler

 

Because it's so contagious, it's like a flash fire.  The doubling time of numbers of affected is about 4 days (early 7 day estimates not supported now) which means the growth rate is exponential.  Exponential growth means that every single day that any affected place in the world waits to implement extreme social distancing has a MAJOR impact on outcome:

Spoiler

Guess where the US is on that curve today.  So conversely, the math also shows that relatively small changes in social behavior have MAJOR changes that help slow the spread.  Do not wait another day.  Shut it down.  Stay home to prevent spread or infection.  We'll know a lot more about rates here in less than two weeks.  

For the general population outside of home, probably the biggest thing we need is face masks for everyone to inhibit rapid spread outside of home, not necessarily as an absolute barrier to prevent infection though it certainly helps reduce risk. And crucially, masks would help inhibit community spread by those who are infected but still asymptomatic.

 

Edited March 13, 2020 by triplehorn

[Js1 85,565]

4 minutes ago, Captainant said:

The fed dumped another one and a half trillion into the market yesterday and it still closed -10%. At this point, it's not clear the government can do anything about any aspect of CV19. Their response has been a day late and a dollar short for more than a month now. 

Yeah but you aren’t going to lose access to your cash and credit.  The government is going ensure that in an election year or they are all going to be sent packing in humiliating fashion like 1932. 

[Captainant 27,760]

Just now, Js1 said:

Yeah but you aren’t going to lose access to your cash and credit.  The government is going ensure that in an election year or they are all going to be sent packing in humiliating fashion like 1932. 

Yeah, I'm not talking about my bank account, that's all FDIC backed. I'm talking about the corporate bond market, which is a significant portion of credit in the US and is looking extremely shaky. That goes, """the market""" goes

[RollLeft 5,045]

8 hours ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Crossposting from the market is crashing thread:

I'll post this elsewhere but it definitely belongs here:  

Jeff Walker who was former Vice Chair at JPMorgan Chase and head of their Private equity franchise 

 

Subject: From Jeff Walker from recent conference on Covid-19
 

experts

Arranged a discussion yesterday on COVID-19 with USCF’s top researchers in infectious disease.  Here are the notes.  I bolded some of the more notable comments from the researchers.   

UC San Francisco is either the #1 or #2 hospital in California depending on which survey you read.  It is the 4th largest medical research center in the US, based on research grants.  

University of California, San Francisco BioHub Panel on COVID-19

March 10, 2020

Panelists
Joe DeRisi:  UCSF’s top infectious disease researcher.  Co-president of ChanZuckerberg BioHub (a JV involving UCSF / Berkeley / Stanford).  Co-inventor of the chip used in SARS epidemic.
Emily Crawford:  COVID task force director.  Focused on diagnostics
Cristina Tato:   Rapid Response Director.  Immunologist.  
Patrick Ayescue:   Leading outbreak response and surveillance.  Epidemiologist.  
Chaz Langelier:   UCSF Infectious Disease doc
What’s below are essentially direct quotes from the panelists.  I bracketed the few things that are not quotes.

Top takeaways
At this point, we are past containment.  Containment is basically futile.  Our containment efforts won’t reduce the number who get infected in the US.  
Now we’re just trying to slow the spread, to help healthcare providers deal with the demand peak.  In other words, the goal of containment is to "flatten the curve", to lower the peak of the surge of demand that will hit healthcare providers.  And to buy time, in hopes a drug can be developed.
How many in the community already have the virus?  No one knows.
We are moving from containment to care.  
We in the US are currently where at where Italy was a week ago.  We see nothing to say we will be substantially different.
40-70% of the US population will be infected over the next 12-18 months.  After that level you can start to get herd immunity.  Unlike flu this is entirely novel to humans, so there is no latent immunity in the global population.
[We used their numbers to work out a guesstimate of deaths— indicating about 1.5 million Americans may die.  The panelists did not disagree with our estimate.  This compares to seasonal flu’s average of 50K Americans per year.  Assume 50% of US population, that’s 160M people infected.  With 1% mortality rate that's 1.6M Americans die over the next 12-18 months.]  
The fatality rate is in the range of 10X flu.
This assumes no drug is found effective and made available.
The death rate varies hugely by age.  Over age 80 the mortality rate could be 10-15%.  [See chart by age Signe found online, attached at bottom.]  
Don’t know whether COVID-19 is seasonal but if is and subsides over the summer, it is likely to roar back in fall as the 1918 flu did
I can only tell you two things definitively.  Definitively it’s going to get worse before it gets better.  And we'll be dealing with this for the next year at least.  Our lives are going to look different for the next year.
What should we do now?  What are you doing for your family?
Appears one can be infectious before being symptomatic.  We don’t know how infectious before symptomatic, but know that highest level of virus prevalence coincides with symptoms.  We currently think folks are infectious 2 days before through 14 days after onset of symptoms (T-2 to T+14 onset).
How long does the virus last?
On surfaces, best guess is 4-20 hours depending on surface type (maybe a few days) but still no consensus on this
The virus is very susceptible to common anti-bacterial cleaning agents:  bleach, hydrogen peroxide, alcohol-based.
Avoid concerts, movies, crowded places.
We have cancelled business travel.  
Do the basic hygiene, eg hand washing and avoiding touching face.
Stockpile your critical prescription medications.  Many pharma supply chains run through China.  Pharma companies usually hold 2-3 months of raw materials, so may run out given the disruption in China’s manufacturing.
Pneumonia shot might be helpful.  Not preventative of COVID-19, but reduces your chance of being weakened, which makes COVID-19 more dangerous.
Get a flu shot next fall.  Not preventative of COVID-19, but reduces your chance of being weakened, which makes COVID-19 more dangerous.
We would say “Anyone over 60 stay at home unless it’s critical”.  CDC toyed with idea of saying anyone over 60 not travel on commercial airlines.
We at UCSF are moving our “at-risk” parents back from nursing homes, etc. to their own homes.  Then are not letting them out of the house.  The other members of the family are washing hands the moment they come in.
Three routes of infection
Hand to mouth / face
Aerosol transmission
Fecal oral route
What if someone is sick?
If someone gets sick, have them stay home and socially isolate.  There is very little you can do at a hospital that you couldn’t do at home.  Most cases are mild.  But if they are old or have lung or cardio-vascular problems, read on.
If someone gets quite sick who is old (70+) or with lung or cardio-vascular problems, take them to the ER.
There is no accepted treatment for COVID-19.  The hospital will give supportive care (eg IV fluids, oxygen) to help you stay alive while your body fights the disease.  ie to prevent sepsis.
If someone gets sick who is high risk (eg is both old and has lung/cardio-vascular problems), you can try to get them enrolled for “compassionate use" of Remdesivir, a drug that is in clinical trial at San Francisco General and UCSF, and in China.  Need to find a doc there in order to ask to enroll.  Remdesivir is an anti-viral from Gilead that showed effectiveness against MERS in primates and is being tried against COVID-19.  If the trials succeed it might be available for next winter as production scales up far faster for drugs than for vaccines.  [More I found online.]
Why is the fatality rate much higher for older adults?
Your immune system declines past age 50
Fatality rate tracks closely with “co-morbidity”, ie the presence of other conditions that compromise the patient’s hearth, especially respiratory or cardio-vascular illness.  These conditions are higher in older adults.   
Risk of pneumonia is higher in older adults.  
What about testing to know if someone has COVID-19?  
Bottom line, there is not enough testing capacity to be broadly useful.  Here’s why.
Currently, there is no way to determine what a person has other than a PCR test.  No other test can yet distinguish "COVID-19 from flu or from the other dozen respiratory bugs that are circulating”.
A Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) test can detect COVID-19’s RNA.  However they still don’t have confidence in the test’s specificity, ie they don’t know the rate of false negatives.
The PCR test requires kits with reagents and requires clinical labs to process the kits.
While the kits are becoming available, the lab capacity is not growing.  
The leading clinical lab firms, Quest and Labcore have capacity to process 1000 kits per day.  For the nation.
Expanding processing capacity takes “time, space, and equipment.”  And certification.   ie it won’t happen soon.
UCSF and UCBerkeley have donated their research labs to process kits.  But each has capacity to process only 20-40 kits per day.  And are not clinically certified.
Novel test methods are on the horizon, but not here now and won’t be at any scale to be useful for the present danger.


How well is society preparing for the impact?
Local hospitals are adding capacity as we speak.  UCSF’s Parnassus campus has erected “triage tents” in a parking lot.  They have converted a ward to “negative pressure” which is needed to contain the virus.  They are considering re-opening the shuttered Mt Zion facility.
If COVID-19 affected children then we would be seeing mass departures of families from cities.  But thankfully now we know that kids are not affected.
School closures are one the biggest societal impacts.  We need to be thoughtful before we close schools, especially elementary schools because of the knock-on effects.  If elementary kids are not in school then some hospital staff can’t come to work, which decreases hospital capacity at a time of surging demand for hospital services.  
Public Health systems are prepared to deal with short-term outbreaks that last for weeks, like an outbreak of meningitis.  They do not have the capacity to sustain for outbreaks that last for months.  Other solutions will have to be found.
What will we do to handle behavior changes that can last for months?
Many employees will need to make accommodations for elderly parents and those with underlying conditions and immune-suppressed.
Kids home due to school closures
[Dr. DeRisi had to leave the meeting for a call with the governor’s office.  When he returned we asked what the call covered.]  The epidemiological models the state is using to track and trigger action.  The state is planning at what point they will take certain actions.  ie what will trigger an order to cease any gatherings of over 1000 people.  
Where do you find reliable news?
The John Hopkins Center for Health Security site.  Which posts daily updates.  The site says you can sign up to receive a daily newsletter on COVID-19 by email.  [I tried and the page times out due to high demand.  After three more tries I was successful in registering for the newsletter.]  
The New York Times is good on scientific accuracy.
Observations on China
Unlike during SARS, China’s scientists are publishing openly and accurately on COVID-19.  
While China’s early reports on incidence were clearly low, that seems to trace to their data management systems being overwhelmed, not to any bad intent.
Wuhan has 4.3 beds per thousand while US has 2.8 beds per thousand.  Wuhan built 2 additional hospitals in 2 weeks.  Even so, most patients were sent to gymnasiums to sleep on cots.
Early on no one had info on COVID-19.  So China reacted in a way unique modern history, except in wartime.  
Every few years there seems another:  SARS, Ebola, MERS, H1N1, COVID-19.  Growing strains of antibiotic resistant bacteria.  Are we in the twilight of a century of medicine’s great triumph over infectious disease?
"We’ve been in a back and forth battle against viruses for a million years."  
But it would sure help if every country would shut down their wet markets.  
As with many things, the worst impact of COVID-19 will likely be in the countries with the least resources, eg Africa.  See article on Wired magazine on sequencing of virus from Cambodia.


Jeffrey C. Walker

Sent from my iPhone

But, but, but they mention the Flu!!  These morons should educate themselves.  They just don't get it...

[MissingInAction 25,178]

Everyone laughed at me when I started prepping a month ago. Everyone laughed at me when I bought a bidet. My neighbor laughed when he saw me hauling in 20 pound bags of dog food.

Who's laughing now, motherfuckers?

[Loco 3,754]

13 minutes ago, GabrielsHorn said:

It has been a fiasco from the federal government, but I disagree with him on this:

Has any major country been able to do anything to contain the virus without going to those measures? It seems like the virus' ability to hide for such a long time makes it a nightmare to contain once it gets to your country, and the only remedy is to truly practice social distancing and isolate people as much as possible. Even South Korea which is held as the gold standard, cancelled schools through March and generally cancelled large gatherings a la what we are currently seeing.

I agree, but we had a 1-2 month headstart...  we didn't do anything meaningful, only PR

[crimsonlonghorn 2,306]

44 minutes ago, Larry T. Spider said:

Houston rodeo is in Dallas this year.

And it's still not closed from what I hear. 

[BradInATX 9,208]

Escarpment HEB has a checkout line double wrapped around produce and into bakery. The other side of the store had similar. Damnit Karen, I just needed charcoal and some bananas for my kid. In line at sprouts right now and it's busy but not stupid like HEB. Noped out immediately.

 

 

 

[crimsonlonghorn 2,306]

35 minutes ago, Hank_Hill said:

And it’s a shit show on the best of days.

In Houston we call it Ben Taub. 

[Trey3216 15,355]

16 minutes ago, Captainant said:

The fed dumped another one and a half trillion into the market yesterday and it still closed -10%. At this point, it's not clear the government can do anything about any aspect of CV19. Their response has been a day late and a dollar short for more than a month now. 

The FED announced they had plans to dump $1.5tn into the market.  It wouldn’t have. Been dumped in yesterday at one time.   Just a clarification 

[The University 851]

26 minutes ago, Post Oak said:

Got a curbside at Valley Mills today.  Fingers crossed

good luck with all of their "substitutions"

[Updawg 2,286]

Escarpment HEB has a checkout line double wrapped around produce and into bakery. The other side of the store had similar. Damnit Karen, I just needed charcoal and some bananas for my kid. In line at sprouts right now and it's busy but not stupid like HEB. Noped out immediately.
 

 
 

Is that really it right now? Was going to grab a couple of things there but I'll pass

[Gardner Barnes 1,562]

Laugh out loud. What the fuck dude...

[MNLonghornFUKM 8,817]

Escarpment HEB has a checkout line double wrapped around produce and into bakery. The other side of the store had similar. Damnit Karen, I just needed charcoal and some bananas for my kid. In line at sprouts right now and it's busy but not stupid like HEB. Noped out immediately.
 

 
 

A week ago they were “it’s just the flu” crowd

[smuggs 9,353]

5 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

Escarpment HEB has a checkout line double wrapped around produce and into bakery. The other side of the store had similar. Damnit Karen, I just needed charcoal and some bananas for my kid. In line at sprouts right now and it's busy but not stupid like HEB. Noped out immediately.

 

 

 

In related news - minced, prepared garlic manufacturers desperately brainstorming ways to capitalize on panic-buying profits after slow start.

[The University 851]

18 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Amazon Fresh was fine on produce and meat. Frozen kind of picked over, no TP. Shit I had to pay $7 for some organic Q-tips or some shit. 

we've rigged a garden hose to act as a bidet.

[CooterBrown 18,027]

1 hour ago, gmr548 said:

My firm sent out a lengthy "your safety is our first priority" email. Real estate, so we do a lot of travel, air and ground, for site visits. In no way was curbing this discussed.

My firm sent out an email with a corporate DEFCON rating chart. 1-5. 5 being the worst.  We are currently at 1 - Business as normal.

[smuggs 9,353]

3 minutes ago, Gardner Barnes said:

Laugh out loud. What the fuck dude...

This asshole doesn't need any toilet paper because it appears that he won't be shitting any time in the next 4 weeks.

[BradInATX 9,208]

Is that really it right now? Was going to grab a couple of things there but I'll pass

About 8:00. I'm confident it still looks like that.

[BrazilHorn 6,631]

Whole Foods at 8:15 DTA is a shitshow relative to normal. 

[JimmyHoffa 1,188]

The funny thing is most of those people have enough food in there house to last them a good 6 months if they would just eat everything they already had in their fucking pantry and freezer. Fucking morons. 

[dingleberryswitzer 2,724]

15 minutes ago, MissingInAction said:

Everyone laughed at me when I started prepping a month ago. Everyone laughed at me when I bought a bidet. My neighbor laughed when he saw me hauling in 20 pound bags of dog food.

Who's laughing now, motherfuckers?

I chuckled.  Does that count?

[NoName 16,397]

The Atlantic: The Dos and Don’ts of ‘Social Distancing’

Quote

 

If you’re confused about what to do right now, you’re not alone—even these experts occasionally disagreed on the answers to my questions. Where there were discrepancies, I’ve included all the different answers as fully as possible. This guide is aimed toward those who are symptom-free and not part of an at-risk group, with an addendum at the end for those in quarantine. If you are symptom-free but are over 60 years old; have asthma, heart disease, or diabetes; or are otherwise at risk, experts recommend defaulting to the most conservative response to each of these questions.

There is a general consensus that while young and healthy people who are at lower risk for personally suffering severe illness from the coronavirus don’t have to be locking themselves in their homes for the next month, they do need to dramatically alter their daily lives, starting now.

 

Full Test:

 

Spoiler

 

The Dos and Don’ts of ‘Social Distancing’

Experts weigh in on whether you should cancel your dates, dinner parties, and gym sessions.

KAITLYN TIFFANY

MARCH 12, 2020

VALERIA FERRARO / ECHOES WIRE / BARCROFT MEDIA VIA GETTY

Editor's Note: The Atlantic is making vital coverage of the coronavirus available to all readers. Find the collection here.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has issued guidelines for “community mitigation strategies” to limit the spread of COVID-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus, which include recommendations for “social distancing”—a term that epidemiologists are using to refer to a conscious effort to reduce close contact between people and hopefully stymie community transmission of the virus.

 

But what exactly does “social distancing” look like for a woman trying to go about her life while staying healthy and helping keep the people around her healthy? Even detailed instructions are difficult to sift for actionable advice. If I have a fourth date tonight, do I go? If I’m invited to a wedding in two weeks in another state, is it too late to cancel? If we’re on lockdown, and I live alone, can I walk to my friend’s apartment when I feel sad? If I end up officially quarantined, can I walk around the park at night for some fresh air?

The CDC guidelines acknowledge factors like the size of a community, its population density, its access to health care, and caveats that social-distancing measures can “be scaled up or down depending on the evolving local situation.” There are conflicting messages coming from media and people’s peers: On Reddit, young people are signing a “self-quarantine manifesto” while, at a press conference, the mayor of New York City is telling people to continue visiting bars and restaurants as normal, to protect the local economy.

 

 

Read: Cancel everything

So I took my personal questions to a series of public-health experts. “I think it’s a hard time because many of the recommendations we’re making are about increasing the distance between people, but of course, being close to people is what makes life a pleasure,” Carolyn Cannuscio, the director of research at the Center for Public Health Initiatives at the University of Pennsylvania said in a phone call. “So this is going to be a very difficult time. No question.”

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  When Keeping Your Distance Is the Best Way to Show You Care

  ASHLEY FETTERS

If you’re confused about what to do right now, you’re not alone—even these experts occasionally disagreed on the answers to my questions. Where there were discrepancies, I’ve included all the different answers as fully as possible. This guide is aimed toward those who are symptom-free and not part of an at-risk group, with an addendum at the end for those in quarantine. If you are symptom-free but are over 60 years old; have asthma, heart disease, or diabetes; or are otherwise at risk, experts recommend defaulting to the most conservative response to each of these questions.

 

There is a general consensus that while young and healthy people who are at lower risk for personally suffering severe illness from the coronavirus don’t have to be locking themselves in their homes for the next month, they do need to dramatically alter their daily lives, starting now.

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If I’m Symptom-Free:

SHOULD I BE AVOIDING BARS AND RESTAURANTS?

Cannuscio: People should avoid gathering in public places. People should be at home as much as possible. The measures that have worked to get transmission under control or at least to bend the curve, in China and South Korea, have been extreme measures to increase social distancing.

Crystal Watson, a senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security:It depends on local context. If we’re in a situation where the disease has been shown to be spreading widely, I think people will start to want to stay home and not go out into crowded settings.

Albert Ko, the chair of the epidemiology department at the Yale School of Public Health: If you go to a crowded bar where you’re up one against another, that’s a lot different from going to a bar where you’re spread out. The CDC recommendations are to keep six to 10 feet away from other people. Bottom line, there’s no absolute indication not to go to bars and restaurants, but in practicing good public health—which is kind of a responsibility for everybody in the country—really think about how we can decrease those close contacts.

 

CAN I HAVE A SMALL GROUP OF FRIENDS OVER TO MY HOUSE FOR A DINNER PARTY OR A BOARD-GAME NIGHT?

Watson: I think small gatherings are probably okay as long as nobody has symptoms, respiratory symptoms. As soon as someone seems sick, you should probably not get together.

Ko: We’re in a gray zone now. The public-health imperative is to create social distance; that’s the only way we’re going to stop this. Think about having those get-togethers but practicing good public health: not sitting very close, trying to keep distance. Wash your hands; avoid touching your face. There are places on the board game that people are constantly touching—routinely disinfect [those, as well as] doorknobs, the bathroom faucets, those types of things. There’s no absolute rule about what works, but what we do know is that decreasing the size of those gatherings, increasing the distance, practicing good hygiene will go a long way.

 

Cannuscio: I would recommend that people minimize social contact, and that means limiting all social engagements. That includes intimate gatherings among friends. I think the exception is if two households are in strict agreement that they are also going to reduce all outside contact and then those two households socialize together, to support one another. I can see social and mental-health advantages to that kind of approach.

 

SHOULD I STOP DATING?

Ko: Dating is usually one person and another person. What we’re really worried about in terms of public health are these large gatherings where you have people crowded together, and you can have what we call super-spreading events. The risk of those goes up exponentially the larger the size of the gathering. Dating is at the other end. I think you can still date.

Watson: I think dating is okay, if you believe with reasonable confidence that you’re both well. I think we’re humans and we need human interaction; I think that’s important for our sanity. It’s important to focus on [avoiding] large crowds and indoor activities where you have lots of people touching the same surfaces.

Cannuscio: It is a time to be very cautious about initiating contact with new people. This seems like a great time to get creative with your text messages. [Or] take it to FaceTime or a phone call.

CAN I GO TO THE GYM?

Ko: If you do go to the gym, again, maintain distances. Disinfect places in the gym people are always touching. Wash your hands regularly. Much of the transmission is person to person with people coughing, sneezing, or touching their nose and mouth and touching somebody else. You can get transmission on surfaces; that’s probably a little bit lower-risk, but we still should disinfect surfaces that we touch.

 

Cannuscio: If you’re going to go to the gym, try to go at a time when there are very few people there and definitely wipe down the equipment. However, as the weather warms in many parts of the United States, I would instead recommend that people go outside for walks or runs or bike rides in areas where there are not other people. This is really about depriving the virus the opportunity to move from one person to another.

Read: Here’s who should be avoiding crowds right now

SHOULD I BE WORRIED ABOUT GOING TO THE GROCERY STORE?

Cannuscio: I would say try to shop at times when there are very few other shoppers there. That [could mean] going first thing in the morning when the store opens, or late at night. I think many people will rely on delivery, and that’s just the nature of our lives right now. For delivery workers, I would say, leave the food on the doorstep and ring the bell, rather than interacting face-to-face with the person who’s ordered the food.

SHOULD I TAKE PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION?

Cannuscio: First of all, people who have the opportunity or the option of working at home should absolutely use that option right now. For people who have essential functions and have to be at work, if they have any flexibility in their schedules they should try to ride at non-peak hours. On subways or buses, people should try to stand as far away from other people as possible. I think it’s important for planners to think about, for example, putting more buses on the most heavily traveled routes, to maybe thin out the crowds on those buses. In cities where it’s possible to walk, that would be a better option.

 

 

For people who can afford to use ride-sharing services, you’re limiting the number of people you’re in contact with as the rider, so to me that seems like a reasonable step to take. Of course, I worry about all those drivers who have people in and out of their cars all day long.

And of course, everyone should be using good hand hygiene and respiratory etiquette. If you have to cough, cough into your elbow. And I can’t believe I have to say this, but I’ve been in public places where people have been spitting, in parks or on the sidewalk. I would ask people not to spit!

Watson: It’s hard to say “Don’t take public transit,” because a lot of people rely on it to get to work. If you don’t have to and you can drive, it’s probably a good idea. It will help other people who have to take public transit for their livelihoods to do so and do so more safely.

SHOULD MY FAMILY BE CANCELING EVENTS LIKE BIRTHDAY PARTIES AND WEDDINGS?

Watson: It’s hard to ask everyone if they’re feeling sick and harder to know what their exposures have been. I would take a look at who is invited to the party. Are there people who are very vulnerable? Older people, people who have underlying health conditions, pregnant women? If that’s the case, I would err on the side of caution. I don’t want to tell somebody to cancel their wedding. That would be terrible. But I think you have to look at the situation, maybe ask guests who are feeling ill not to come. If it’s being held in a community where there’s widespread disease, then it might be worth [reconsidering the event].

 

Ko: If those events can be postponed, I think that’s certainly productive. If a wedding can’t be postponed, there are things you can do. Hold it in an open space, where people are spread apart. You have to be really careful about exposures and really practice social distancing from the elderly.

Cannuscio: One of the best ways we can show love to the people we care about is to step back and to stay away. In many cases that takes courage, and it takes speaking out over these social norms that dictate that we should be polite and we should be together and we should celebrate and gather. Really seriously consider whether now is a joyful time to gather family members for a wedding celebration.

Read: The worst outcome

SHOULD I STOP VISITING ELDERLY RELATIVES?

Watson: I think we should start limiting visitation to people who are in assisted-living facilities and nursing homes. I know that’s really tough, and maybe setting things up so you can visit them virtually is a good idea. [That way], they can see you and say hello, [without putting] them at extra risk.

 

Cannuscio: I think if we are fortunate enough to live near our elders and we get into the mode of seriously isolating our own families, then one person should be designated to go and visit. If we’re not in a situation where we can truly limit our own social contact, then we will be putting that elder at risk by going to visit.

 

SHOULD I BE CANCELING HAIRCUTS AND OTHER NONESSENTIAL APPOINTMENTS?

Watson: Those are more one-on-one interactions. I think there’s a lower likelihood that exposure is going to occur that way. I don’t think that’s a big concern.

Cannuscio: I would say hold off on your haircut and then when you go back, when it’s clear that we have vanquished this foe, everybody please give your hairdresser extra, extra tips. I hope that policies will be put into place to protect the paychecks of people who will suffer during this period.

SHOULD I AVOID COMMUNAL SPACES IN MY APARTMENT BUILDING?

Cannuscio: Try to schedule your use of those common spaces so you’re going at times when other people aren’t around. If you know there are not a lot of people in the laundry room or mailroom at 6 a.m., go at 6 a.m. People will be inconvenienced, but it’s important to try to spread ourselves out.

 

SHOULD I LIMIT PHYSICAL INTERACTION WITH MY PARTNER, OR OTHER PEOPLE I LIVE WITH?

Ko: That’s really hard to do. Again, what we’re really worried about is large gatherings. In the home, close contact is almost inevitable.

Cannuscio: I would say if you’re in a steady, monogamous relationship and you and that other person are limiting your social contacts, then be as intimate as you want to be.

Watson: If you get sick, try to maintain some distance. Otherwise, households should go about their normal business.

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If I Get Symptoms or Am Exposed to Someone Who’s Sick:

IF I AM WAITING OUT A 14-DAY QUARANTINE, CAN I HAVE VISITORS AS LONG AS THEY STAND FAR AWAY FROM ME?

Cannuscio: No, quarantine means “stay away from other people.” You shouldn’t have visitors.

Ko: Under quarantine, people really shouldn’t enter the home or be in the same physical space.

Read: What will you do if you start coughing?

CAN I WALK AROUND OUTSIDE AT ALL WHEN I’M UNDER QUARANTINE?

Cannuscio: For people who live in areas that are not densely populated, walking around in their yard is probably safe. The idea is that they should not come into contact with any other people. They need to be strict about it. We are not going to defeat this and halt transmission if people loosely interpret what it means to self-quarantine or self-isolate.

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KAITLYN TIFFANY is a staff writer at The Atlantic, where she covers technology.

 

 

 

[triplehorn 2,664]

We need millions of basic face masks to distribute as soon as humanly possible.  Having mass community distribution of masks outside of grocery stores would kill 3 birds with one stone - get them on faces, reduce total number of trips, masks on faces before going into crowded grocery stores.  We can cancel games and rodeos, but people still have to get food.  With extreme social distancing, i.e. limiting social contact by 80%, reserve the outside of home time to food gathering and pharmacy.

[Beantown Express 2.0 6,559]

5 minutes ago, The University said:

we've rigged a garden hose to act as a bidet.

One of my neighbors said if they run out of toilet paper they can just rinse off in the shower and it would be like a bidet.  I responded, "people don't stand in their fucking bidets when they are using them".