Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

[HenryJames 66,052]

 

[Macanudo 12,978]

1 hour ago, Message Board User said:

 

And this is why I have been buying food.  And booze.  Plus ammo.

[Bevo 13,577]

2 minutes ago, Pancho said:

 

Wynn doesn't own much of shit in Vegas anymore. All of its properties are in Macau.

[Not a cat 5,656]

4 minutes ago, CooterBrown said:

I’d guess under a state of emergency, the state can do whatever they deem necessary.

State of emergency would certainly go to validity of public purpose, but the state couldn't just say, for example, all women but no men have curfew absent some clear showing that only women are carriers of the virus.  And that's for gender, which only gets intermediate scrutiny IIRC.  

But as I stated unless bar owners are disproportionately minority or some other protected class so they could argue disproportionate impact, they really don't have much of a case.

[Junior Miller 1,502]

2 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Exactly. From what you can see. And your previous post said something along the lines of “it is safe.”

 

it’s a new virus. No one knows shit. You don’t know shit. On top of that you’re not even a doctor. Maybe stop telling people it’s fucking safe. Just because you haven’t seen anything (and maybe doctors aren’t really focusing on it, being busy at the moment) doesnt mean it’s safe, dude. Try “I’ve given this a lot of thought and I think it’s ok.” But don’t speak like you know.

 

and I say that as someone who’s probably going to order from my own local places in the heights and maybe try to visit one this week to support them as well. But I view it all as a risk. 

I never used the word safe. Nothing is safe over the next few weeks and I think everyone here realizes that. If the wording bothered you then I'll add the disclaimer:

I am not a medical expert and never meant anyone to think any action during this time, including picking up food or getting delivery from restaurants, will be 100 percent safe from contracting Covid19. That said everything I've seen and heard in over a week of researching says food borne transmission of the virus is low risk and with proper handling precautions getting delivery and takeout can be made low risk as well. 

 

[Aqua Buddha 14,596]

1 hour ago, Message Board User said:

 

Someone needs to lean down and tell him that trucking capacity isn't the problem here.

[Parliament 14,260]

OK, Surly Legal Eagles --
How does OH, IL, and now CA get away with the disparate impact of completely closing all bars, but allowing restaurants to either do takeout or to do limited capacity dining room service, all in the name of the same "public health crisis?"  Doesn't seem to be an equitable government mandate.

Use your bully pulpit now and let the courts decide if you overstepped. By then this'll all have passed.

Look, I'm as big of a Libertarian as anyone, but States and locals doing this right here is just fine with me.

[yoladu 4,094]

7 minutes ago, HenryJames said:

 

So, ummm... workplaces/offices that have more than 50 employees? Is that not a gathering of people?

[DalTxHornFan 3,101]

11 minutes ago, CooterBrown said:

I’d guess under a state of emergency, the state can do whatever they deem necessary.

But why bars and not restaurants?  Couldn't they decree that they operate at a lesser capacity like they are doing with restaurants?

[Junior Miller 1,502]

25 minutes ago, Bevo said:

Yeah, but my damn son is home from college and plans to deliver food. I'm like, "If you were sick, would you cook yourself a meal, go out to eat, or order for delivery?" Do you think he will listen?

I wonder if as a concerned driver he could request every delivery he does be no contact? I'm not quite sure how it works on that end of it as I just assume anything I get at this point has contaminated packaging

[Junior Miller 1,502]

1 minute ago, DalTxHornFan said:

But why bars and not restaurants?  Couldn't they decree that they operate at a lesser capacity like they are doing with restaurants?

if it's a bar that wants to be open for takeout and delivery orders only and not serve alcohol I would think they should be able to since plenty of restaurants that also serve alcohol will be able to stay open for delivery and takeout. 

[Skipper 6,135]

Let's be honest.  If this thing is so contagious that it infects a lot of people via takeout or delivery (even if you take precautions), then we're just fucked and it's going to burn through everyone within a few months.  

[Derka _original_ 3]

So, ummm... workplaces/offices that have more than 50 employees? Is that not a gathering of people?

Nah, that’s a gaggle.

[Anastasis 23,469]

Hope the wet market was worth it dumbfucks. 

[The_Great_Hornsby 3,236]

China needs to face the heat when this is all over. Sweeping sanctions and international shaming. Fuck them and their Winnie the Poo dictator.

[Moby Ric 2,058]

Just now, The_Great_Hornsby said:

China needs to face the heat when this is all over. Sweeping sanctions and international shaming. Fuck them and their Winnie the Poo dictator.

Agreed, fuck that place right now.  This is going to affect so many people in many different ways and all of them are bad.

[BradInATX 9,208]

Austin hospitals are starting to cut off elective surgeries in preparation for being overrun by COVID

No worse than the flu. Closetojumping out front shoulda told you.

Edited March 16, 2020 by BradInATX

[Bevo 13,577]

2 minutes ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

China needs to face the heat when this is all over. Sweeping sanctions and international shaming. Fuck them and their Winnie the Poo dictator.

Yeah, good luck with that. What do you think would happen if the US asked for reparations?

[Limp Brisket 546]

1 minute ago, Bevo said:

Yeah, good luck with that. What do you think would happen if the US asked for reparations?

Shit, China blaming us lol

[Bevo 13,577]

17 minutes ago, Junior Miller said:

I wonder if as a concerned driver he could request every delivery he does be no contact? I'm not quite sure how it works on that end of it as I just assume anything I get at this point has contaminated packaging

That would be the smart thing to do, but I don't think delivery businesses would be willing to change their operations.

[The_Great_Hornsby 3,236]

4 minutes ago, Bevo said:

Yeah, good luck with that. What do you think would happen if the US asked for reparations?

Yeah but the whole world knows this was their fault. I think they will pay the price. I am not even putting it past them that this was intentional. 

[52-80 19,158]

5 minutes ago, Bevo said:

Yeah, good luck with that. What do you think would happen if the US asked for reparations?

They'll be issued as AliExpress store credits

[Skipper 6,135]

As you see Dow futures opening negative even after the fed cut rates to zero, the economic implications of this are really starting to become apparent. Not that we haven't known this but it's just crazy to actually watch this play out in real time.  And let's say we actually manage a slow roll down/increased social distancing this week followed by 2-3 weeks of more focused shutdown and let's say that actually works and 3-4 weeks from now the 'curve' starts improving.  Then what? If we "open" back up aren't we then just a month away from being back in the same spot?  Are we buying time for the front line workers to figure out the best treatment as they fight it (we're months away from any new drug but other drugs are being repurposed) to minimize the CFR? Do we think we can ever put the genie back in the bottle to a level that with fewer cases and increased testing we can contact trace and move forward with precision shutdowns/self quarantines?  Is our best hope that a hot summer (yay global warming?) is in fact a magic bullet that buys us months to come up with a better strategy for the fall and 21?  I guess all of the above and the key is to buy time period.

Not much point to this post other than we're actually about to see our govt fire all of their bullets (both economically and as far as govt mandated shutdowns) and now we just have to hope it works.   Because it seems like there will be a point down the line where the risk of continued shutdown is greater than the risk of the disease.

 

 

[Liquor and Poker 3,659]

23 minutes ago, Junior Miller said:

I wonder if as a concerned driver he could request every delivery he does be no contact? I'm not quite sure how it works on that end of it as I just assume anything I get at this point has contaminated packaging

Everyone needs to stop.  Now my wife has me wiping down the groceries we had delivered because it wasn’t safe to go to the store.  How do you wipe down an onion?

[HRSchenker 2,268]

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ 

Hacked?

[Hagbard Celine 10,864]

2 minutes ago, Skipper said:

As you see Dow futures opening negative even after the fed cut rates to zero, the economic implications of this are really starting to become apparent. Not that we haven't known this but it's just crazy to actually watch this play out in real time.  And let's say we actually manage a slow roll down/increased social distancing this week followed by 2-3 weeks of more focused shutdown and let's say that actually works and 3-4 weeks from now the 'curve' starts improving.  Then what? If we "open" back up aren't we then just a month away from being back in the same spot?  Are we buying time for the front line workers to figure out the best treatment as they fight it (we're months away from any new drug but other drugs are being repurposed) to minimize the CFR? Do we think we can ever put the genie back in the bottle to a level that with fewer cases and increased testing we can contact trace and move forward with precision shutdowns/self quarantines?  Is our best hope that a hot summer (yay global warming?) is in fact a magic bullet that buys us months to come up with a better strategy for the fall and 21?  I guess all of the above and the key is to buy time period.

Not much point to this post other than we're actually about to see our govt fire all of their bullets (both economically and as far as govt mandated shutdowns) and now we just have to hope it works.   Because it seems like there will be a point down the line where the risk of continued shutdown is greater than the risk of the disease.

well, the banks and the 1% could print money, inflate the economy, and give actual relief to individuals, households, and small businesses.

[GreenspointTexas 9,602]

1 minute ago, HRSchenker said:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ 

Hacked?

Just saw that as well. Before i scrolled down, i was like “oh shit!!!”

 

but yeah, prolly a glitch

[Harrison Stafford 3,335]

47 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

i dont know how to embed a tweet but this is hilarious

 

 

I would NOT want a job where I’m visiting multiple doctors’ offices and sitting in waiting rooms on a daily basis.  

 

 

 

[Anastasis 23,469]

9 minutes ago, Skipper said:

As you see Dow futures opening negative even after the fed cut rates to zero, the economic implications of this are really starting to become apparent. Not that we haven't known this but it's just crazy to actually watch this play out in real time.  And let's say we actually manage a slow roll down/increased social distancing this week followed by 2-3 weeks of more focused shutdown and let's say that actually works and 3-4 weeks from now the 'curve' starts improving.  Then what? If we "open" back up aren't we then just a month away from being back in the same spot?  Are we buying time for the front line workers to figure out the best treatment as they fight it (we're months away from any new drug but other drugs are being repurposed) to minimize the CFR? Do we think we can ever put the genie back in the bottle to a level that with fewer cases and increased testing we can contact trace and move forward with precision shutdowns/self quarantines?  Is our best hope that a hot summer (yay global warming?) is in fact a magic bullet that buys us months to come up with a better strategy for the fall and 21?  I guess all of the above and the key is to buy time period.

Not much point to this post other than we're actually about to see our govt fire all of their bullets (both economically and as far as govt mandated shutdowns) and now we just have to hope it works.   Because it seems like there will be a point down the line where the risk of continued shutdown is greater than the risk of the disease.

 

 

Slow it. Manage the situation with the tools we have. Fast track some antibody treatments. Get a vax in circulation by summer. 

[Guest Lobo]

Way too many of you waiting on political solutions to a scientific problem.  So many here need to be banned and much of this thread shut down.  

The pandemic is biological/virological by its very nature.  So let's just stick to that.  Because everything else, almost entirely, needs to be addressed by other means.  

I am so proud of certain leadership people in certain places at certain times.  In some instances.  But not really.  But also on occasion.  

[JOSEYWALES66 1,801]

8 minutes ago, HRSchenker said:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ 

Hacked?

Is it spread through holy water?  Could explain the Vatican. 

[Junior Miller 1,502]

16 minutes ago, Bevo said:

That would be the smart thing to do, but I don't think delivery businesses would be willing to change their operations.

I know right now doordash GrubHub and Postmates are giving customers the option of selecting a no-contact delivery, but I wonder if he raised concern with them if they'll allow drivers to also do no contact delivery if they feel safer that way. My wife used that a couple of times and they just put the order by your door and either shoot you a text or call to let you know it's there. 

[Bevo 13,577]

12 minutes ago, Liquor and Poker said:

Everyone needs to stop.  Now my wife has me wiping down the groceries we had delivered because it wasn’t safe to go to the store.  How do you wipe down an onion?

This is why I can't decide if we as a country will have more divorces or babies in 9 months.

[Murfdogg21 4,412]

1 hour ago, Hook1997 said:

One good thing could come from this maybe people will get in the habit of washing their hands after this....

And stop eating bats

[Constant 6,732]

 

Edited March 16, 2020 by Constant

[crimsonlonghorn 2,306]

My father in law - of yesterday's "I'm a grown man" fame - wants to take my kids golfing tomorrow and is pretty insistent. 

I guess when he shows up in the morning to get them and is walking back out to the car, I'll shout, "Nice knowing you Grandpa!"

All these cavalier attitudes are driving me crazy. 

[Bevo 13,577]

1 minute ago, Junior Miller said:

I know right now doordash GrubHub and Postmates are giving customers the option of selecting a no-contact delivery, but I wonder if he raised concern with them if they'll allow drivers to also do no contact delivery if they feel safer that way. My wife used that a couple of times and they just put the order by your door and either shoot you a text or call to let you know it's there. 

Tips would have to go directly to the bill rather than by cash.

[DDD Dad 14,339]

Get a vax in circulation by summer. 

That’s not how this works.

[DalTxHornFan 3,101]

https://www.wkrn.com/news/nashvilles-broadway-bars-react-to-mayors-mandate-to-close/

Edited March 16, 2020 by DalTxHornFan

[GreenspointTexas 9,602]

2 minutes ago, Constant said:

 

Keyword “guideline”

 

people aint gonna adhere to anything until u threaten to arrest or fine them

[Homercles 10,205]

2 hours ago, clapclapclap said:

Despite a lot of idiots, self-social distancing is stepping up in the US:

https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/ticket-sales-dive-box-office-lowest-turnout-20-69607041

Ticket sales plunged to their lowest levels in at least 20 years at North American movie theaters as the coronavirus pandemic led to one of Hollywood's worst weekends at the box office.

Receipts totaled about $55.3 million in U.S. and Canada theaters, according to studio estimates Sunday. Not since 2000 has weekend box office revenue been so low, according to data firm Comscore, when $54.5 million in tickets were sold on a quiet September weekend. More people went to the movies the weekend after Sept. 11, 2001...

...The weekend's sales overall were down 45% from the weekend before, according to Comscore.

While this weekend's crop of films weren't expected to compete with the same timeframe last year, when “Captain Marvel” was in release, revenue was down 60% from the same weekend last year....

If it fucks over TicketMaster this whole thing may be worth it

[ChiTownDoc 21,154]

I do not believe in everything below.  I will elaborate later (cross posting from markets thread).  
 

Conclusions of Goldman Sachs Investee call where 1,500 companies dialed in. The key economic takeaways were:

50% of Americans will contract the virus (150m people) as it's very communicable. This is on a par with the common cold (Rhinovirus) of which there are about 200 strains and which the majority of Americans will get 2-4 per year.

70% of Germany will contract it (58M people). This is the next most relevant industrial economy to be effected.

Peak-virus is expected over the next eight weeks, declining thereafter.

The virus appears to be concentrated in a band between 30-50 degrees north latitude, meaning that like the common cold and flu, it prefers cold weather. The coming summer in the northern hemisphere should help. This is to say that the virus is likely seasonal.

Of those impacted 80% will be early-stage, 15% mid-stage and 5% critical-stage. Early-stage symptoms are like the common cold and mid-stage symptoms are like the flu; these are stay at home for two weeks and rest. 5% will be critical and highly weighted towards the elderly.

Mortality rate on average of up to 2%, heavily weight towards the elderly and immunocompromised; meaning up to 3m people (150m*.02). In the US about 3m/yr die mostly due to old age and disease, those two being highly correlated (as a percent very few from accidents). There will be significant overlap, so this does not mean 3m new deaths from the virus, it means elderly people dying sooner due to respiratory issues. This may however stress the healthcare system.

There is a debate as to how to address the virus pre-vaccine. The US is tending towards quarantine. The UK is tending towards allowing it to spread so that the population can develop a natural immunity. Quarantine is likely to be ineffective and result in significant economic damage but will slow the rate of transmission giving the healthcare system more time to deal with the case load.

China’s economy has been largely impacted which has affected raw materials and the global supply chain. It may take up to six months for it to recover.

Global GDP growth rate will be the lowest in 30 years at around 2%.

S&P 500 will see a negative growth rate of -15% to -20% for 2020 overall.

There will be economic damage from the virus itself, but the real damage is driven mostly by market psychology. Viruses have been with us forever. Stock markets should fully recover in the 2nd half of the year.

In the past week there has been a conflating of the impact of the virus with the developing oil price war between KSA and Russia. While reduced energy prices are generally good for industrial economies, the US is now a large energy exporter, so there has been a negative impact on the valuation of the domestic energy sector. This will continue for some time as the Russians are attempting to economically squeeze the American shale producers and the Saudi’s are caught in the middle and do not want to further cede market share to Russia or the US.

Technically the market generally has been looking for a reason to reset after the longest bull market in history.

There is NO systemic risk. No one is even talking about that. Governments are intervening in the markets to stabilize them, and the private banking sector is very well capitalized. It feels more like ‪9/11‬ than it does like 2008.

[Anastasis 23,469]

12 minutes ago, DDD Dad said:

That’s not how this works.

Oh believe me counselor I am well aware of how this works. We need a public-private lift the likes of which we have not seen since WWII. It's time that we make our grandparent's proud. 

 

Edited March 16, 2020 by Anastasis

[Landomatic 3,813]

12 minutes ago, GreenspointTexas said:

Keyword “guideline”

people aint gonna adhere to anything until u threaten to arrest or fine them

Yep...their lives are too kickass.  Fuck everyone else and fuck slowing this thing down.  Until they make them, they ain't doing shit.

[gmr548 16,580]

27 minutes ago, Skipper said:

 Because it seems like there will be a point down the line where the risk of continued shutdown is greater than the risk of the disease.

It's pretty clear from the data that the risk of not having the kind of shutdown that is effective in slowing this disease has the potential to eclipse any war this country has ever fought in terms of lives lost, and do so in a much shorter period. I'm not sure I buy there's an economic cost equal to that.

[RayDog 682]

16 minutes ago, Murfdogg21 said:

And stop eating bats

I have been thinking about the dogs and cats that won't survive the next two months.

[Parliament 14,260]

North Dakota is closing k-12 schools for one week. Look for it to be quickly extended.

I'll say that by the end of tomorrow all States led by rational people will cancel school.

[Apep 645]

For mild cases of ARDs, (acute respiratory distress), it sounds like CPAPs can be used as ventilators. They can even be improvised from standard ER equipment. They don't require much more than than hoses, masks, and a wall outlet. They can be used with O2 concentrators and a connector to supplement oxygen.  If things are really that bad with ventilator supplies, shouldn't we start CPAP/BiPAP drives and decontamination procedures? For example, I have three working CPAPs, a primary, one for travel, and an old one that I never sold on the gray market.

[crimsonlonghorn 2,306]

5 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

I do not believe in everything below.  I will elaborate later (cross posting from markets thread).  
 

Conclusions of Goldman Sachs Investee call where 1,500 companies dialed in. The key economic takeaways were:

50% of Americans will contract the virus (150m people) as it's very communicable. This is on a par with the common cold (Rhinovirus) of which there are about 200 strains and which the majority of Americans will get 2-4 per year.

70% of Germany will contract it (58M people). This is the next most relevant industrial economy to be effected.

Peak-virus is expected over the next eight weeks, declining thereafter.

The virus appears to be concentrated in a band between 30-50 degrees north latitude, meaning that like the common cold and flu, it prefers cold weather. The coming summer in the northern hemisphere should help. This is to say that the virus is likely seasonal.

Of those impacted 80% will be early-stage, 15% mid-stage and 5% critical-stage. Early-stage symptoms are like the common cold and mid-stage symptoms are like the flu; these are stay at home for two weeks and rest. 5% will be critical and highly weighted towards the elderly.

Mortality rate on average of up to 2%, heavily weight towards the elderly and immunocompromised; meaning up to 3m people (150m*.02). In the US about 3m/yr die mostly due to old age and disease, those two being highly correlated (as a percent very few from accidents). There will be significant overlap, so this does not mean 3m new deaths from the virus, it means elderly people dying sooner due to respiratory issues. This may however stress the healthcare system.

There is a debate as to how to address the virus pre-vaccine. The US is tending towards quarantine. The UK is tending towards allowing it to spread so that the population can develop a natural immunity. Quarantine is likely to be ineffective and result in significant economic damage but will slow the rate of transmission giving the healthcare system more time to deal with the case load.

China’s economy has been largely impacted which has affected raw materials and the global supply chain. It may take up to six months for it to recover.

Global GDP growth rate will be the lowest in 30 years at around 2%.

S&P 500 will see a negative growth rate of -15% to -20% for 2020 overall.

There will be economic damage from the virus itself, but the real damage is driven mostly by market psychology. Viruses have been with us forever. Stock markets should fully recover in the 2nd half of the year.

In the past week there has been a conflating of the impact of the virus with the developing oil price war between KSA and Russia. While reduced energy prices are generally good for industrial economies, the US is now a large energy exporter, so there has been a negative impact on the valuation of the domestic energy sector. This will continue for some time as the Russians are attempting to economically squeeze the American shale producers and the Saudi’s are caught in the middle and do not want to further cede market share to Russia or the US.

Technically the market generally has been looking for a reason to reset after the longest bull market in history.

There is NO systemic risk. No one is even talking about that. Governments are intervening in the markets to stabilize them, and the private banking sector is very well capitalized. It feels more like ‪9/11‬ than it does like 2008.

Depressing, but not as bad as it could be. From their lips to God's ears. 

[Surly Bevo 24,908]

19 minutes ago, Bevo said:

This is why I can't decide if we as a country will have more divorces or babies in 9 months.

Door number 3.....murder indictments that get plead down to voluntary manslaughter