Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

[Parliament 14260]

Depressing, but not as bad as it could be. From their lips to God's ears. 

Yeah I'm gonna say markets will fall more than 20%. They may hit their bottom in the 1st half of the year, but they ain't gonna "recover" very quick

[Mikey4 2476]

Tears at the dinner table tonight as I told the kids I pulled the plug on our international spring break plans. They don't get it.

[Junior Miller 1502]

17 minutes ago, Bevo said:

Tips would have to go directly to the bill rather than by cash.

We learned the hard way that you should always tip on the actual bill. When we first used the service a few months ago we were going to tip only cash but the first couple of times it took forever to get our food.

The third time it happened I asked the driver why was taking so long and she explained the way it works is the order is sent from the company to them on their app to either accept or decline and it tells them the total amount they're guaranteed for the order. So if you don't put the tip on the order then it looks like you're going to stiff them so drivers will just keep declining your order and it gets passed around to every driver in the area until somebody finally accepts it. 

Sure enough on the next order started putting a good tip and haven't had that problem since. 

[Anastasis 23469]

1 minute ago, Mikey4 said:

Tears at the dinner table tonight as I told the kids I pulled the plug on our international spring break plans. They don't get it.

You did the right thing. 

[Surly Bevo 24908]

1 minute ago, Mikey4 said:

Tears at the dinner table tonight as I told the kids I pulled the plug on our international spring break plans. They don't get it.

Kids are dumb and self centered....

[GreenspointTexas 9602]

14 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

I do not believe in everything below.  I will elaborate later (cross posting from markets thread).  
 

Conclusions of Goldman Sachs Investee call where 1,500 companies dialed in. The key economic takeaways were:

50% of Americans will contract the virus (150m people) as it's very communicable. This is on a par with the common cold (Rhinovirus) of which there are about 200 strains and which the majority of Americans will get 2-4 per year.

70% of Germany will contract it (58M people). This is the next most relevant industrial economy to be effected.

Peak-virus is expected over the next eight weeks, declining thereafter.

The virus appears to be concentrated in a band between 30-50 degrees north latitude, meaning that like the common cold and flu, it prefers cold weather. The coming summer in the northern hemisphere should help. This is to say that the virus is likely seasonal.

Of those impacted 80% will be early-stage, 15% mid-stage and 5% critical-stage. Early-stage symptoms are like the common cold and mid-stage symptoms are like the flu; these are stay at home for two weeks and rest. 5% will be critical and highly weighted towards the elderly.

Mortality rate on average of up to 2%, heavily weight towards the elderly and immunocompromised; meaning up to 3m people (150m*.02). In the US about 3m/yr die mostly due to old age and disease, those two being highly correlated (as a percent very few from accidents). There will be significant overlap, so this does not mean 3m new deaths from the virus, it means elderly people dying sooner due to respiratory issues. This may however stress the healthcare system.

There is a debate as to how to address the virus pre-vaccine. The US is tending towards quarantine. The UK is tending towards allowing it to spread so that the population can develop a natural immunity. Quarantine is likely to be ineffective and result in significant economic damage but will slow the rate of transmission giving the healthcare system more time to deal with the case load.

China’s economy has been largely impacted which has affected raw materials and the global supply chain. It may take up to six months for it to recover.

Global GDP growth rate will be the lowest in 30 years at around 2%.

S&P 500 will see a negative growth rate of -15% to -20% for 2020 overall.

There will be economic damage from the virus itself, but the real damage is driven mostly by market psychology. Viruses have been with us forever. Stock markets should fully recover in the 2nd half of the year.

In the past week there has been a conflating of the impact of the virus with the developing oil price war between KSA and Russia. While reduced energy prices are generally good for industrial economies, the US is now a large energy exporter, so there has been a negative impact on the valuation of the domestic energy sector. This will continue for some time as the Russians are attempting to economically squeeze the American shale producers and the Saudi’s are caught in the middle and do not want to further cede market share to Russia or the US.

Technically the market generally has been looking for a reason to reset after the longest bull market in history.

There is NO systemic risk. No one is even talking about that. Governments are intervening in the markets to stabilize them, and the private banking sector is very well capitalized. It feels more like ‪9/11‬ than it does like 2008.

I actually feel better after reading that

[Okie State 3821]

Tears at the dinner table tonight as I told the kids I pulled the plug on our international spring break plans. They don't get it.

Waiting as long as possible to pull the plug on our vacation at the end of May. My six year old is going to be pretty damn sad.

[cactusflinthead 27598]

13 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

I do not believe in everything below.  I will elaborate later (cross posting from markets thread).  
 

Conclusions of Goldman Sachs Investee call where 1,500 companies dialed in. The key economic takeaways were:

50% of Americans will contract the virus (150m people) as it's very communicable. This is on a par with the common cold (Rhinovirus) of which there are about 200 strains and which the majority of Americans will get 2-4 per year.

70% of Germany will contract it (58M people). This is the next most relevant industrial economy to be effected.

Peak-virus is expected over the next eight weeks, declining thereafter.

The virus appears to be concentrated in a band between 30-50 degrees north latitude, meaning that like the common cold and flu, it prefers cold weather. The coming summer in the northern hemisphere should help. This is to say that the virus is likely seasonal.

Of those impacted 80% will be early-stage, 15% mid-stage and 5% critical-stage. Early-stage symptoms are like the common cold and mid-stage symptoms are like the flu; these are stay at home for two weeks and rest. 5% will be critical and highly weighted towards the elderly.

Mortality rate on average of up to 2%, heavily weight towards the elderly and immunocompromised; meaning up to 3m people (150m*.02). In the US about 3m/yr die mostly due to old age and disease, those two being highly correlated (as a percent very few from accidents). There will be significant overlap, so this does not mean 3m new deaths from the virus, it means elderly people dying sooner due to respiratory issues. This may however stress the healthcare system.

There is a debate as to how to address the virus pre-vaccine. The US is tending towards quarantine. The UK is tending towards allowing it to spread so that the population can develop a natural immunity. Quarantine is likely to be ineffective and result in significant economic damage but will slow the rate of transmission giving the healthcare system more time to deal with the case load.

China’s economy has been largely impacted which has affected raw materials and the global supply chain. It may take up to six months for it to recover.

Global GDP growth rate will be the lowest in 30 years at around 2%.

S&P 500 will see a negative growth rate of -15% to -20% for 2020 overall.

There will be economic damage from the virus itself, but the real damage is driven mostly by market psychology. Viruses have been with us forever. Stock markets should fully recover in the 2nd half of the year.

In the past week there has been a conflating of the impact of the virus with the developing oil price war between KSA and Russia. While reduced energy prices are generally good for industrial economies, the US is now a large energy exporter, so there has been a negative impact on the valuation of the domestic energy sector. This will continue for some time as the Russians are attempting to economically squeeze the American shale producers and the Saudi’s are caught in the middle and do not want to further cede market share to Russia or the US.

Technically the market generally has been looking for a reason to reset after the longest bull market in history.

There is NO systemic risk. No one is even talking about that. Governments are intervening in the markets to stabilize them, and the private banking sector is very well capitalized. It feels more like ‪9/11‬ than it does like 2008.

All out of rep.

It's worse at the street level than it was on 912>

I've never seen a grocery store so picked over. Gas spiked in 01, but there was no run on basic groceries. 

This shit is weird. 

[gmr548 16580]

9 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Mortality rate on average of up to 2%, heavily weight towards the elderly and immunocompromised; meaning up to 3m people (150m*.02). In the US about 3m/yr die mostly due to old age and disease, those two being highly correlated (as a percent very few from accidents). There will be significant overlap, so this does not mean 3m new deaths from the virus, it means elderly people dying sooner due to respiratory issues. This may however stress the healthcare system.

There is a debate as to how to address the virus pre-vaccine. The US is tending towards quarantine. The UK is tending towards allowing it to spread so that the population can develop a natural immunity. Quarantine is likely to be ineffective and result in significant economic damage but will slow the rate of transmission giving the healthcare system more time to deal with the case load.

Technically the market generally has been looking for a reason to reset after the longest bull market in history.

There is NO systemic risk. No one is even talking about that. Governments are intervening in the markets to stabilize them, and the private banking sector is very well capitalized. It feels more like ‪9/11‬ than it does like 2008.

I find Goldman's implication that the deaths don't really count 'cause olds could die any year now, and that maybe we should just let it burn through the population despite the consequences, to be morally appalling. Also the "no new deaths" thing is flat incorrect. People will still die from heart disease and cancer, the top top killers in this country, especially with treatment capacity reduced. Maybe fewer car accidents and such in the short term, but again, reduced medical capacity to treat. What an utterly garbage outlook. (I know its not yours).

I do agree with the end bits. The stock market was overvalued as hell, even if the correction has been rapid and is likely to continue in the short term. I don't see this as a systemic risk at all. At the end of the day, lower wage workers are the ones who will face the worse economic impacts.

9 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Oh believe me counselor I am well aware of how this works. We need a public-private lift the likes of which we have not seen since WWII. It's time that we make our grandparent's proud. 

 

This. It really is all hands on deck. Unfortunately we don't seem to have that right now.

[Armybrat 40844]

I don’t.

[Hagbard Celine 10864]

7 minutes ago, Apep said:

For mild cases of ARDs, (acute respiratory distress), it sounds like CPAPs can be used as ventilators. They can even be improvised from standard ER equipment. They don't require much more than than hoses, masks, and a wall outlet. They can be used with O2 concentrators and a connector to supplement oxygen.  If things are really that bad with ventilator supplies, shouldn't we start CPAP/BiPAP drives and decontamination procedures? For example, I have three working CPAPs, a primary, one for travel, and an old one that I never sold on the gray market.

in the category of piss-on-a-sparkplug ideas this one is badass.

paging Team Cockrell and Team Welch Hall

[B00M 6416]

SIAP. Great analysis here: https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca

 

[ChiTownDoc 21154]

21 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

I do not believe in everything below.  I will elaborate later (cross posting from markets thread).  
 

Conclusions of Goldman Sachs Investee call where 1,500 companies dialed in. The key economic takeaways were:

50% of Americans will contract the virus (150m people) as it's very communicable. This is on a par with the common cold (Rhinovirus) of which there are about 200 strains and which the majority of Americans will get 2-4 per year.

70% of Germany will contract it (58M people). This is the next most relevant industrial economy to be effected.

Peak-virus is expected over the next eight weeks, declining thereafter.

The virus appears to be concentrated in a band between 30-50 degrees north latitude, meaning that like the common cold and flu, it prefers cold weather. The coming summer in the northern hemisphere should help. This is to say that the virus is likely seasonal.

Of those impacted 80% will be early-stage, 15% mid-stage and 5% critical-stage. Early-stage symptoms are like the common cold and mid-stage symptoms are like the flu; these are stay at home for two weeks and rest. 5% will be critical and highly weighted towards the elderly.

Mortality rate on average of up to 2%, heavily weight towards the elderly and immunocompromised; meaning up to 3m people (150m*.02). In the US about 3m/yr die mostly due to old age and disease, those two being highly correlated (as a percent very few from accidents). There will be significant overlap, so this does not mean 3m new deaths from the virus, it means elderly people dying sooner due to respiratory issues. This may however stress the healthcare system.

There is a debate as to how to address the virus pre-vaccine. The US is tending towards quarantine. The UK is tending towards allowing it to spread so that the population can develop a natural immunity. Quarantine is likely to be ineffective and result in significant economic damage but will slow the rate of transmission giving the healthcare system more time to deal with the case load.

China’s economy has been largely impacted which has affected raw materials and the global supply chain. It may take up to six months for it to recover.

Global GDP growth rate will be the lowest in 30 years at around 2%.

S&P 500 will see a negative growth rate of -15% to -20% for 2020 overall.

There will be economic damage from the virus itself, but the real damage is driven mostly by market psychology. Viruses have been with us forever. Stock markets should fully recover in the 2nd half of the year.

In the past week there has been a conflating of the impact of the virus with the developing oil price war between KSA and Russia. While reduced energy prices are generally good for industrial economies, the US is now a large energy exporter, so there has been a negative impact on the valuation of the domestic energy sector. This will continue for some time as the Russians are attempting to economically squeeze the American shale producers and the Saudi’s are caught in the middle and do not want to further cede market share to Russia or the US.

Technically the market generally has been looking for a reason to reset after the longest bull market in history.

There is NO systemic risk. No one is even talking about that. Governments are intervening in the markets to stabilize them, and the private banking sector is very well capitalized. It feels more like ‪9/11‬ than it does like 2008.

Two of my bigger issues: 

1. Quarantine is likely to be ineffective and result in significant economic damage but will slow the rate of transmission giving the healthcare system more time to deal with the case load.

 Classic market guys:  slowing the rate of transmission and giving the healthcare system more time to deal will save thousands of lives.  But yes, it will be financially more painful.  But to say the quarantine is ineffective when it will save tens of thousands of lives is absurd. 

2. Stock markets should fully recover in the 2nd half of the year.

 This is funny because pretty much nobody I've spoken with at JPM/GS etc has said we'll see a full recovery in the second half of the year.  Just an odd comment considering they admit world GDP is going to be growing at 2% which is the worst in 30 years.  9/11 didn't have near the effects we will see from COVID...I certainly hope these guys are right though. 

[Surly Bevo 24908]

3 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

I find Goldman's implication that the deaths don't really count 'cause olds could die any year now, and that maybe we should just let it burn through the population despite the consequences, to be morally appalling.

Two things

1.  It's a hard conversation, you find it appalling many others find it to be a discussion that does touch a delicate rail of "what's the natural order of things and although we spend much of our lives trying to beat nature in all sorts of ways when is the juice not worth the squeeze....so to speak" kind of conversation that should be had.  That isn't to say you are wrong in your view but it's wrong to me that it can't even be discussed

2.  I didn't sense them promoting that any way, more just antiseptically pointing out that views and actions that they believe are being taken at the moment by the US vs the UK.

[ChiTownDoc 21154]

6 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

I find Goldman's implication that the deaths don't really count 'cause olds could die any year now, and that maybe we should just let it burn through the population despite the consequences, to be morally appalling. Also the "no new deaths" thing is flat incorrect. People will still die from heart disease and cancer, the top top killers in this country, especially with treatment capacity reduced. Maybe fewer car accidents and such in the short term, but again, reduced medical capacity to treat. What an utterly garbage outlook. (I know its not yours).

I do agree with the end bits. The stock market was overvalued as hell, even if the correction has been rapid and is likely to continue in the short term. I don't see this as a systemic risk at all. At the end of the day, lower wage workers are the ones who will face the worse economic impacts.

This. It really is all hands on deck. Unfortunately we don't seem to have that right now.

Yes - see my post on my biggest issues with what they said...a couple posts above this. 

[Surly Bevo 24908]

Just now, ChiTownDoc said:

Two of my bigger issues: 

1. Quarantine is likely to be ineffective and result in significant economic damage but will slow the rate of transmission giving the healthcare system more time to deal with the case load.

 Classic market guys:  slowing the rate of transmission and giving the healthcare system more time to deal will save thousands of lives.  But yes, it will be financially more painful.  But to say the quarantine is ineffective when it will save tens of thousands of lives is absurd. 

2. Stock markets should fully recover in the 2nd half of the year.

 This is funny because pretty much nobody I've spoken with at JPM/GS etc has said we'll see a full recovery in the second half of the year.  Just an odd comment considering they admit world GDP is going to be growing at 2% which is the worst in 30 years.  9/11 didn't have near the effects we will see from COVID...I certainly hope these guys are right though. 

On point 1...the WaPo article everybody has loved on with the graphs and stuff generally says that a forced quarantine is the most ineffective course of action (other than doing nothing) Are they right?  Fuck if I know...

[Junior Miller 1502]

19 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

I do not believe in everything below.  I will elaborate later (cross posting from markets thread).  
 

Conclusions of Goldman Sachs Investee call where 1,500 companies dialed in. The key economic takeaways were:

50% of Americans will contract the virus (150m people) as it's very communicable. This is on a par with the common cold (Rhinovirus) of which there are about 200 strains and which the majority of Americans will get 2-4 per year.

70% of Germany will contract it (58M people). This is the next most relevant industrial economy to be effected.

Peak-virus is expected over the next eight weeks, declining thereafter.

The virus appears to be concentrated in a band between 30-50 degrees north latitude, meaning that like the common cold and flu, it prefers cold weather. The coming summer in the northern hemisphere should help. This is to say that the virus is likely seasonal.

Of those impacted 80% will be early-stage, 15% mid-stage and 5% critical-stage. Early-stage symptoms are like the common cold and mid-stage symptoms are like the flu; these are stay at home for two weeks and rest. 5% will be critical and highly weighted towards the elderly.

Mortality rate on average of up to 2%, heavily weight towards the elderly and immunocompromised; meaning up to 3m people (150m*.02). In the US about 3m/yr die mostly due to old age and disease, those two being highly correlated (as a percent very few from accidents). There will be significant overlap, so this does not mean 3m new deaths from the virus, it means elderly people dying sooner due to respiratory issues. This may however stress the healthcare system.

There is a debate as to how to address the virus pre-vaccine. The US is tending towards quarantine. The UK is tending towards allowing it to spread so that the population can develop a natural immunity. Quarantine is likely to be ineffective and result in significant economic damage but will slow the rate of transmission giving the healthcare system more time to deal with the case load.

China’s economy has been largely impacted which has affected raw materials and the global supply chain. It may take up to six months for it to recover.

Global GDP growth rate will be the lowest in 30 years at around 2%.

S&P 500 will see a negative growth rate of -15% to -20% for 2020 overall.

There will be economic damage from the virus itself, but the real damage is driven mostly by market psychology. Viruses have been with us forever. Stock markets should fully recover in the 2nd half of the year.

In the past week there has been a conflating of the impact of the virus with the developing oil price war between KSA and Russia. While reduced energy prices are generally good for industrial economies, the US is now a large energy exporter, so there has been a negative impact on the valuation of the domestic energy sector. This will continue for some time as the Russians are attempting to economically squeeze the American shale producers and the Saudi’s are caught in the middle and do not want to further cede market share to Russia or the US.

Technically the market generally has been looking for a reason to reset after the longest bull market in history.

There is NO systemic risk. No one is even talking about that. Governments are intervening in the markets to stabilize them, and the private banking sector is very well capitalized. It feels more like ‪9/11‬ than it does like 2008.

That's a downright rosey outlook considering the majority of those deaths and the suffering is likely to occur very rapidly. The country is about to get hit harder in loss of life and raw number of seriously ill than possibly anyone alive now has felt in their lifetime in a short span of time. 

[Dbeasy 15051]

My father in law - of yesterday's "I'm a grown man" fame - wants to take my kids golfing tomorrow and is pretty insistent. 
I guess when he shows up in the morning to get them and is walking back out to the car, I'll shout, "Nice knowing you Grandpa!"
All these cavalier attitudes are driving me crazy. 

Dude you need to rediscover your manhood and get your house in order.

[Js1 85336]

38 minutes ago, DalTxHornFan said:

https://www.wkrn.com/news/nashvilles-broadway-bars-react-to-mayors-mandate-to-close/

I’m SHOCKED Kid Rock’s Honky Tonk doesn’t care about a public health crisis. 

[ChiTownDoc 21154]

2 minutes ago, Surly Bevo said:

On point 1...the WaPo article everybody has loved on with the graphs and stuff generally says that a forced quarantine is the most ineffective course of action (other than doing nothing) Are they right?  Fuck if I know...

Yep - it's up for debate...but the way the GS guys phrased it they concede the point it's better for the healthcare system to be able to handle the surge - which by definition would save lives.  I have said from the beginning give the olds and those with underlying issues a scarlet letter...and avoid them like the plague unless you're authorized to interact with them.   Now I'm joking about the scarlet letter thing...kind of. 

[Zepol87 9186]

Yep...their lives are too kickass.  Fuck everyone else and fuck slowing this thing down.  Until they make them, they ain't doing shit.

Man you have no idea how accurate this is. Got into today with some good friends about going out. They told me to go live in my safe space bubble since I can't handle the flu. I don't understand it, also why I said early on the govt will have to force shutdowns cause guidelines and recommendations won't make these assholes listen. My gf boss just sent a grp text letting everyone they are opening at 8. WTF

[CooterBrown 18012]

Hope the wet market was worth it dumbfucks. 

Those fucks can’t stop eating fucking endangered species because of ancient Chinese secret magic. Think this will stop them?

[gmr548 16580]

2 minutes ago, Surly Bevo said:

Two things

1.  It's a hard conversation, you find it appalling many others find it to be a discussion that does touch a delicate rail of "what's the natural order of things and although we spend much of our lives trying to beat nature in all sorts of ways when is the juice not worth the squeeze....so to speak" kind of conversation that should be had.  That isn't to say you are wrong in your view but it's wrong to me that it can't even be discussed

2.  I didn't sense them promoting that any way, more just antiseptically pointing out that views and actions that they believe are being taken at the moment by the US vs the UK.

1.) That's a fair debate, but it pretty obviously wasn't what they were going for. Their angle was transparently financial - what will hurt investors and corporations more. Further, just the idea of Goldman Sachs having any standing to talk about "the natural order of things" and letting the weak die is laughable after 2008. If that was their angle, then they have even less credibility to make that argument.

2.) It's in the language. They described the an attempt at social distancing as "ineffective" - I don't know what their metric is, but it's proven to slow the spread and save a significant number of lives. So what is it ineffective for? They did not make a value judgement on the UK approach, despite the very obvious fact that it will lead to a large number of avoidable deaths.

[AeroHorn 749]

7 minutes ago, Surly Bevo said:

On point 1...the WaPo article everybody has loved on with the graphs and stuff generally says that a forced quarantine is the most ineffective course of action (other than doing nothing) Are they right?  Fuck if I know...

I think there may be conflation of quarantine and social distancing in the two sources. WaPo simulation shows quarantine has almost no benefit (we know and have seen it happen; we cannot make everything leakproof) but social distancing is very beneficial. GS article is implying that social distancing (my understanding of what they mean by quarantine because quarantine as we know it is a lost cause) will have huge economic impact and is debating its benefit from economic perspective.

[Goredho 17406]

You assholes are my connection to humanity now.  No symptoms, but I live in one of these counties, so into quarantine I go.

https://www.colorado.gov/pacific/cdphe/news/cdphe-strongly-advises-all-visitors-and-residents-eagle-summit-pitkin-and-gunnison-counties

[BrickHorn 18234]

32 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

I do not believe in everything below.  I will elaborate later (cross posting from markets thread).  
 

Conclusions of Goldman Sachs Investee call where 1,500 companies dialed in. The key economic takeaways were:

50% of Americans will contract the virus (150m people) as it's very communicable. This is on a par with the common cold (Rhinovirus) of which there are about 200 strains and which the majority of Americans will get 2-4 per year.

70% of Germany will contract it (58M people). This is the next most relevant industrial economy to be effected.

Peak-virus is expected over the next eight weeks, declining thereafter.

The virus appears to be concentrated in a band between 30-50 degrees north latitude, meaning that like the common cold and flu, it prefers cold weather. The coming summer in the northern hemisphere should help. This is to say that the virus is likely seasonal.

Of those impacted 80% will be early-stage, 15% mid-stage and 5% critical-stage. Early-stage symptoms are like the common cold and mid-stage symptoms are like the flu; these are stay at home for two weeks and rest. 5% will be critical and highly weighted towards the elderly.

Mortality rate on average of up to 2%, heavily weight towards the elderly and immunocompromised; meaning up to 3m people (150m*.02). In the US about 3m/yr die mostly due to old age and disease, those two being highly correlated (as a percent very few from accidents). There will be significant overlap, so this does not mean 3m new deaths from the virus, it means elderly people dying sooner due to respiratory issues. This may however stress the healthcare system.

There is a debate as to how to address the virus pre-vaccine. The US is tending towards quarantine. The UK is tending towards allowing it to spread so that the population can develop a natural immunity. Quarantine is likely to be ineffective and result in significant economic damage but will slow the rate of transmission giving the healthcare system more time to deal with the case load.

China’s economy has been largely impacted which has affected raw materials and the global supply chain. It may take up to six months for it to recover.

Global GDP growth rate will be the lowest in 30 years at around 2%.

S&P 500 will see a negative growth rate of -15% to -20% for 2020 overall.

There will be economic damage from the virus itself, but the real damage is driven mostly by market psychology. Viruses have been with us forever. Stock markets should fully recover in the 2nd half of the year.

In the past week there has been a conflating of the impact of the virus with the developing oil price war between KSA and Russia. While reduced energy prices are generally good for industrial economies, the US is now a large energy exporter, so there has been a negative impact on the valuation of the domestic energy sector. This will continue for some time as the Russians are attempting to economically squeeze the American shale producers and the Saudi’s are caught in the middle and do not want to further cede market share to Russia or the US.

Technically the market generally has been looking for a reason to reset after the longest bull market in history.

There is NO systemic risk. No one is even talking about that. Governments are intervening in the markets to stabilize them, and the private banking sector is very well capitalized. It feels more like ‪9/11‬ than it does like 2008.

If 150M Americans contract this virus and 5% require critical care, that’s 7.5M in the ICU.  That exceeds our ICU bed capacity by two orders of magnitude.  If that’s the case, the CFR will be north of 2%.

[gmr548 16580]

10 minutes ago, Surly Bevo said:

On point 1...the WaPo article everybody has loved on with the graphs and stuff generally says that a forced quarantine is the most ineffective course of action (other than doing nothing) Are they right?  Fuck if I know...

I don't know enough to say but it's important to note that the example there was of quarantining one impacted area. It'd be analogous to the US trying to lock down Seattle and NYC and let the rest of the country do its thing.

[Surly Bevo 24908]

20 minutes ago, GreenspointTexas said:

I actually feel better after reading that

Damn, you calming the fuck down some is going to reduce the already pretty limited entertainment value of this particular thread

[MNLonghornFUKM 8817]

Good read. Hope it’s seasonal. But we have below avg temps for the forseeable future up here but for flooding reasons...we need it for a few weeks . We’ll all be quarantined anyways

[CooterBrown 18012]

My father in law - of yesterday's "I'm a grown man" fame - wants to take my kids golfing tomorrow and is pretty insistent. 
I guess when he shows up in the morning to get them and is walking back out to the car, I'll shout, "Nice knowing you Grandpa!"
All these cavalier attitudes are driving me crazy. 

Don’t be a pussy. Tell him to go fuck himself.

[Buzzrock 14920]

Yep - it's up for debate...but the way the GS guys phrased it they concede the point it's better for the healthcare system to be able to handle the surge - which by definition would save lives.  I have said from the beginning give the olds and those with underlying issues a scarlet letter...and avoid them like the plague unless you're authorized to interact with them.   Now I'm joking about the scarlet letter thing...kind of. 

I think the article said that social distancing is better than quarantining, but we’ve already seen that Americans aren’t ready for it. So if SD isn’t an option then quarantine it is.

[Hank_Hill 18807]

Just got pulled from my clinical rotation

[ChiTownDoc 21154]

14 minutes ago, Surly Bevo said:

Two things

1.  It's a hard conversation, you find it appalling many others find it to be a discussion that does touch a delicate rail of "what's the natural order of things and although we spend much of our lives trying to beat nature in all sorts of ways when is the juice not worth the squeeze....so to speak" kind of conversation that should be had.  That isn't to say you are wrong in your view but it's wrong to me that it can't even be discussed

2.  I didn't sense them promoting that any way, more just antiseptically pointing out that views and actions that they believe are being taken at the moment by the US vs the UK.

I have been thinking of this really hard.  I actually see a lot of the patients this will take out and they have very little quality of life.  It's so damn sad but at some point...for the greater good we may need somebody to make that decision.  I'm sure as hell glad that my job has 'do no harm' at the top of the to do list.  Because that would have to be hell to be on whatever committee decides letting a few hundred thousand more olds die is the best course of action for the rest of us.  Heavy stuff...but I do agree with you that somewhere that conversation should at least be had.  

[MNLonghornFUKM 8817]

Damn, you calming the fuck down some is going to reduce the already pretty limited entertainment value of this particular thread

Can’t lie..this made me laugh. I agree with the majority greenpoint says...but his numbers are sometimes way off and he reminds me of tweek from south park

[ztejas 43448]

3 minutes ago, BrickHorn said:

If 150M Americans contract this virus and 5% require critical care, that’s 7.5M in the ICU.  That exceeds our ICU bed capacity by two orders of magnitude.  If that’s the case, the CFR will be north of 2%.

150M people aren't getting it at the same time... 

[gmr548 16580]

2 minutes ago, Buzzrock said:

 

I think the article said that social distancing is better than quarantining, but we’ve already seen that Americans aren’t ready for it. So if SD isn’t an option then quarantine it is.

 

Because "quarantine" in the WaPo article is for one impacted area. Wuhan was the example used - obviously it leaked out and they had to basically lock down the whole country. Same thing Italy saw after initially trying to lock down just the northern towns and later provinces.

What gets called a large-scale national "quarantine" really refers to mandated social distancing.

Edited March 16, 2020 by gmr548

[Telegraph_it 3357]

17 minutes ago, Surly Bevo said:

On point 1...the WaPo article everybody has loved on with the graphs and stuff generally says that a forced quarantine is the most ineffective course of action (other than doing nothing) Are they right?  Fuck if I know...

The way I read it was a forced quarantine is an action by a government saying you cannot pass this line. It doesn’t work, people get through and still spread it. 
 

The key is to use social distancing which is like a hybrid quarantine of sorts. Folks don’t move around therefore they can’t me a multiplier and spread it. Some that don’t move still catch it but if they stay put their R0 is low. That’s how you flatten the curve. 
 

edit: or what @gmr548 wrote. 

Edited March 16, 2020 by Telegraph_it

[Buzzrock 14920]

Because "quarantine" in the WaPo article is for one impacted area. Wuhan was the example used - obviously it leaked out and they had to basically lock down the whole country. Same thing Italy saw after initially trying to lock down just the northern towns and later provinces.
What gets called a large-scale national "quarantine" really refers to mandated social distancing.

Fair points.

[GabrielsHorn 2183]

7 minutes ago, Goredho said:

You assholes are my connection to humanity now.  No symptoms, but I live in one of these counties, so into quarantine I go.

https://www.colorado.gov/pacific/cdphe/news/cdphe-strongly-advises-all-visitors-and-residents-eagle-summit-pitkin-and-gunnison-counties

Sorry that is along the front range are screwing up for y’all in the high country. I think it’s going to get awful up there as y’all just don’t have the capacity. 

[gmr548 16580]

1 minute ago, ztejas said:

150M people aren't getting it at the same time... 

No, but we don't have the ICU capacity to handle it even when there are 8-10 million active infections.

[bluto 4929]

Just got pulled from my clinical rotation

What does this mean exactly

[BrickHorn 18234]

8 minutes ago, ztejas said:

150M people aren't getting it at the same time... 

Spread it out evenly over 12 months, and assume recovery time is 2 weeks (optimistic).  We still only have 1/6th the number of beds we will need.  And it will not be spread evenly.  It will peak, which exacerbates the problem.

Let me put numbers on this.  If only 1/6th of the 7.5M who need ICU care get it, that means 5/6ths of that group die.  That’s 6.25M deaths. Assuming all of those who get ICU care survive (very rosy - it’s probably a 20% CFR in that category regardless of care), the total CFR would be 4.2%. 

 

Edited March 16, 2020 by BrickHorn

[Anastasis 23469]

1 minute ago, GabrielsHorn said:

Sorry that is along the front range are screwing up for y’all in the high country. I think it’s going to get awful up there as y’all just don’t have the capacity. 

my mom is in rio grande county. they have no healthcare resources.  called her an told her to hole up as long as possible. 

[Hank_Hill 18807]

Just now, bluto said:

What does this mean exactly

That UTSW is taking this seriously and limiting non essential (students) exposure.

[bluto 4929]

So are y’all being held in reserve? I’m clearly a medical field dumbass.

[Junior Miller 1502]

12 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Yep - it's up for debate...but the way the GS guys phrased it they concede the point it's better for the healthcare system to be able to handle the surge - which by definition would save lives.  I have said from the beginning give the olds and those with underlying issues a scarlet letter...and avoid them like the plague unless you're authorized to interact with them.   Now I'm joking about the scarlet letter thing...kind of. 

How do you think this plays out over the next several months? I've been coming around to thinking it'll be filled with multiple choke points. Right now we're getting a large spike in cases so we'll go into choke point 1 for a couple of weeks hoping the medical side can catch up. After that restrictions will ease up and they'll open things back up a bit until the next choke point is needed to slow transmission down. Rinse and repeat until the spread across each area/state has taken hold enough where spikes in cases don't overwhelm the medical side anymore. 

I'm not sure how viable this would be or how damaging to the economy in the long run. 

[Guest Lobo]

On 3/13/2020 at 3:35 PM, closetojumping said:

 

 

Just negged everyone of these stupid fucking posts. God damn fuck you and Junior Miller and every other fucking Cloak Room shitheel that cannot help themselves and has to come here on this thread and run their fucking mouths because they don't think the echo chamber of the Cloak Room is a big enough podium for their bullshit. WE DON'T WANT TO READ YOUR POLITICAL LEANING BULLSHIT. 

I've learned a lot from following this thread. I've never even seen some posters on this site until this thread and they have a shit ton of posts. You clowns have to be one big circle jerk ring in the Cloak Room. I wish every one of your boring, bawling, whiny asses could be negged back into Shaggy and then be forced to ogle scatporn for the rest of this election cycle. 

 

you are so brave.   It's funny though, I'll look around the room tomorrow at the Governor's meeting to discuss supply chain and logistics improvements in light of this event...and it'll be sans politics.  And I'll look around the room and I'll see a lot of people and none of them will be you.  I wonder why that is?  We're all shitheels, but you're the one injecting politic into things.  Why don't you let the non-partisan adults handle stuff and you hang back and count your rep points.  You must be so proud.

[Anastasis 23469]

Just now, Lobo said:

It's funny though, I'll look around the room tomorrow at the Governor's meeting

Please make a wheel chair joke. Seriously. Might be your last chance. 

[Surly Bevo 24908]

8 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

I have been thinking of this really hard.  I actually see a lot of the patients this will take out and they have very little quality of life.  It's so damn sad but at some point...for the greater good we may need somebody to make that decision.  I'm sure as hell glad that my job has 'do no harm' at the top of the to do list.  Because that would have to be hell to be on whatever committee decides letting a few hundred thousand more olds die is the best course of action for the rest of us.  Heavy stuff...but I do agree with you that somewhere that conversation should at least be had.  

It's a son of a bitch when ideas like life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness.....start to run headlong in to each other .  Very heavy stuff indeed 

[Hank_Hill 18807]

Just now, bluto said:

So are y’all being held in reserve? I’m clearly a medical field dumbass.

No, we're on spring break now with an extra week. We don't have much legal capacity to actually help medically unless on an academic rotation. I was on peds so I wasn't doing much related to this anyway.