Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

[gmr548 16580]

1 minute ago, Junior Miller said:

How do you think this plays out over the next several months? I've been coming around to thinking it'll be filled with multiple choke points. Right now we're getting a large spike in cases so we'll go into choke point 1 for a couple of weeks hoping the medical side can catch up. After that restrictions will ease up and they'll open things back up a bit until the next choke point is needed to slow transmission down. Rinse and repeat until the spread across each area/state has taken hold enough where spikes in cases don't overwhelm the medical side anymore. 

I'm not sure how viable this would be or how damaging to the economy in the long run. 

In my unprofessional read I think this is where w're heading. I don't think we're going to see national restrictions on par with western Europe. Stale and local approaches will vary. We obviously don't know it isn't seasonal but there's at least reason to think it might be. I could see it bouncing around for a year or two.

[staboner 4969]

26 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Two of my bigger issues: 

1. Quarantine is likely to be ineffective and result in significant economic damage but will slow the rate of transmission giving the healthcare system more time to deal with the case load.

 Classic market guys:  slowing the rate of transmission and giving the healthcare system more time to deal will save thousands of lives.  But yes, it will be financially more painful.  But to say the quarantine is ineffective when it will save tens of thousands of lives is absurd. 

2. Stock markets should fully recover in the 2nd half of the year.

 This is funny because pretty much nobody I've spoken with at JPM/GS etc has said we'll see a full recovery in the second half of the year.  Just an odd comment considering they admit world GDP is going to be growing at 2% which is the worst in 30 years.  9/11 didn't have near the effects we will see from COVID...I certainly hope these guys are right though. 

thanks for your points and comments

I have a very hard time seeing a world GDP being positive, let alone 2%. I was thinking, like a month ago when I had my business panic, a world -5 to -10% GDP effect for 2020, at the best. I mean who fucking knows but I can't see much better. So much less money is changing hands right now in every part of the world. There is a huge hole for March to May likely (for sure negative YoY and sequential) and then some confusing time of a rebound which I assume will be slower than we hope for. Why do I make that assumption? Because most of our world leaders are completely fucking useless, from Oz to the US to whatever hellhole you want to point at. Plenty of positives will come from this but man I have a hard time seeing aything economically happy till 2021. my two guessing cents

[Larry T. Spider 1746]

Texas Education Commissioner Mike Morath told school superintendents and lawmakers Sunday to be prepared for long-term school district closures, potentially through the end of the school year, especially in areas where the new coronavirus has spread.

[VABuckeye 2472]

1 hour ago, Bevo said:

This is why I can't decide if we as a country will have more divorces or babies in 9 months.

Going by tonight my household is divorce. 

[Guest Lobo]

2 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Please make a wheel chair joke. Seriously. Might be your last chance. 

SO we should make jokes about a person who is actually handicapped but wisecracks about the perceived/invented issues with the President are off-limits because it makes tough Texas guys sad?  Okay, that seems fair.  Greg Abbott is actually in a wheelchair and will likely die with paralysis.  Donald Trump is in perfect health and we can't make the slightest joke about him outside the Cloak Room.  And this seems rational to the moderators here?  Yeah, makes a ton of sense.  

[Surly Bevo 24908]

7 minutes ago, Hank_Hill said:

That UTSW is taking this seriously and limiting non essential (students) exposure.

Funny I thought it was your way of letting us know that you have even MORE time to furiously masturbate now that your girl is also caught down in Brazil.

[Hagbard Celine 10864]

8 minutes ago, Junior Miller said:

That's a downright rosey outlook considering the majority of those deaths and the suffering is likely to occur very rapidly. The country is about to get hit harder in loss of life and raw number of seriously ill than possibly anyone alive now has felt in their lifetime in a short span of time. 

Current scoreboard Dead (not wounded/casualties) on a single day:

2017 CDC 2,813,503 total US deaths: 7708

Antietam: 3675 (USA + CSA)

9/11: 2977

D-Day: 2500

Pearl Harbor: 2403

 

What percentage of social distancing do we have to achieve to prevent putting up a day on this list?

 

The Italians have 1/5th our population and had 368 perish today, Sunday 15 March 2020.  With our population that translates to 1840.

 

[ChiTownDoc 21154]

6 minutes ago, Junior Miller said:

How do you think this plays out over the next several months? I've been coming around to thinking it'll be filled with multiple choke points. Right now we're getting a large spike in cases so we'll go into choke point 1 for a couple of weeks hoping the medical side can catch up. After that restrictions will ease up and they'll open things back up a bit until the next choke point is needed to slow transmission down. Rinse and repeat until the spread across each area/state has taken hold enough where spikes in cases don't overwhelm the medical side anymore. 

I'm not sure how viable this would be or how damaging to the economy in the long run. 

Yes, it's almost better to quarantine certain parts of cities but that's impossible.  But I agree with how you're phrasing it above.  Also social distancing is better as mentioned in another post earlier...after all the videos I saw of St. Pat's here in Chicago I think we are too stupid as a society to use that method.  

[gmr548 16580]

13 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

I have been thinking of this really hard.  I actually see a lot of the patients this will take out and they have very little quality of life.  It's so damn sad but at some point...for the greater good we may need somebody to make that decision.  I'm sure as hell glad that my job has 'do no harm' at the top of the to do list.  Because that would have to be hell to be on whatever committee decides letting a few hundred thousand more olds die is the best course of action for the rest of us.  Heavy stuff...but I do agree with you that somewhere that conversation should at least be had.  

 

1 minute ago, Surly Bevo said:

It's a son of a bitch when ideas like life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness.....start to run headlong in to each other .  Very heavy stuff indeed 

I think it's absolutely a worthy debate. I just think when framed as "Well yeah there are a lot of people that aren't on their deathbeds right now whose deaths we can prevent, but you know that'd be pretty expensive, so maybe we shouldn't," that it's a terrible outlook. Whats serves the greater good in letting the healthcare system get overrun and having hundreds of thousands of preventable deaths, not all of whom are poor QOL elderly folks?

I'm all for our society seriously rethinking how we do stuff like long term care, and I say that as someone who's parent will absolutely need LTC to survive at some point in the not too distant future if COVID doesn't do it. I don't feel like this is the same thing.

[Coelenterate Fuccboi 13091]

28 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

I have said from the beginning give the olds and those with underlying issues a scarlet letter...and avoid them like the plague

That should be easy for most Americans.

[HOOKEM4 5036]

I told my boss I was working from home for the foreseeable future. I can do my job, arguable more efficiently, from home. He was not happy and made some cryptic comments. I am in a very advantageous position and I am not worried about losing my job. Even if I do, my family is fine to weather whatever storm comes. I am more pissed they have clearly been influenced by the "it's just the flu' crowd and are unwilling to look at the sobering truths. We have several employees that I would guess contracting the covid virus is essentially a death sentence but the show must go on!. Fml.

We are on day 2 of total lockdown and the kids are already pissed they are short on a few random things they dont need. This will be fun.

[Hagbard Celine 10864]

24 minutes ago, BrickHorn said:

If 150M Americans contract this virus and 5% require critical care, that’s 7.5M in the ICU.  That exceeds our ICU bed capacity by two orders of magnitude.  If that’s the case, the CFR will be north of 2%.

your numbers are correct if the entire event is instantaneous.

[Junior Miller 1502]

6 minutes ago, Lobo said:

SO we should make jokes about a person who is actually handicapped but wisecracks about the perceived/invented issues with the President are off-limits because it makes tough Texas guys sad?  Okay, that seems fair.  Greg Abbott is actually in a wheelchair and will likely die with paralysis.  Donald Trump is in perfect health and we can't make the slightest joke about him outside the Cloak Room.  And this seems rational to the moderators here?  Yeah, makes a ton of sense.  

Let's not get crazy now

[Anastasis 23469]

6 minutes ago, Lobo said:

SO we should make jokes about a person who is actually handicapped but wisecracks about the perceived/invented issues with the President are off-limits because it makes tough Texas guys sad?  Okay, that seems fair.  Greg Abbott is actually in a wheelchair and will likely die with paralysis.  Donald Trump is in perfect health and we can't make the slightest joke about him outside the Cloak Room.  And this seems rational to the moderators here?  Yeah, makes a ton of sense.  

 

[Armybrat 40844]

The wife & I are going to just stay at home most of the time no social interaction at all for two months. We’ll go to CVS to get our regular prescription meds via curbside service or drive through. Our geezer vitamin supplements contain 200% daily zinc requirements and we have a few dozen Airborne tablets. Should we try to get some regular zinc tablets & more of the Airborne to take daily?

I am seriously getting worried.

edited to add, I do have a nebulizer with some leftover meds for the bronchial infection I had last year (not pneumonia). Would it be useful at all ?

Edited March 16, 2020 by Armybrat

[ChiTownDoc 21154]

1 minute ago, tjhooker said:

People are retarded.  I live in a county with now multiple reported cases. Drive by the local bar last night. Parking lot jammed. Idiots. 

Really blows the mind.  I'm wondering what happens when the deaths start to pile up.  Humans are very social creatures...they'll risk a lot of shit to be out enjoying themselves.  When the Brits were getting bombed to hell by the Germans in WW2 the first few nights the underground shelters were full.  Then as time went on the masses chose to just drink in bars and hope for the best.  That sounds absolutely asinine but it helps get into the human psyche...there's going to be people out in large crowds until you shut shit down. Period. 

[ChiTownDoc 21154]

2 minutes ago, Armybrat said:

The wife & I are going to just stay at home most of the time no social interaction at all for two months. We’ll go to CVS to get our regular prescription meds via curbside service or drive through. Our geezer vitamin supplements contain 200% daily zinc requirements and we have a few dozen Airborne tablets. Should we try to get some regular zinc tablets & more of the Airborne to take daily?

I am seriously getting worried.

Just take regular supplements.  Find a way to exercise too.  That's more important than the specific type of supplement.  Exercise, fluids, vit C/zinc...and chill.  Don't freak out...the stress only makes you more susceptible.  Do what's smart and chill.  

[Brisketexan 105139]

Assisted with a group sending suggestions to the governor to implement as part of the state of emergency (certain statute suspensions and the like). Some serious shit. I suspect we’re going to see a lot more stuff coming.

 

Also, was talking to my daughter, who’s doing....ok....but is very bored, and is starting to get a little freaked because some of her friends are heading home. In our conversation, I shared with her that I think the recovery from this is going to take 3-5 years. It’s going to have to be a global effort, and the interesting thing is, she’ll graduate from college in the middle of it. There’s a chance that she’ll end up working in a field that is part of that effort.

 

We are living through a pivotal point in history. Going through this is shit. But we’ll see each other on the other side, and we’ll have work to do when we get there.

[B00M 6416]

50 minutes ago, B00M said:

SIAP. Great analysis here: https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca

 

[BrickHorn 18234]

8 minutes ago, Hagbard Celine said:

your numbers are correct if the entire event is instantaneous.

No, not true.  I assumed it was spread out evenly over 12 months, and that any given ICU patient occupied a bed for 2 weeks.  In that case, we have 1/6 the beds we need.  It’s MUCH worse if instantaneous or, actually realistic, if there’s a peak.  

[Telegraph_it 3357]

5 minutes ago, Armybrat said:

I am seriously getting worried.

You have not posted all these years on Surly and Shaggy and whatever was before that to be taken out by some virus. Y’all got this. Stay smart, stay informed, and stay inside as much as possible. 
 

See you on the other side! 

[Message Board User 12395]

 

[Anastasis 23469]

2 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

We are living through a pivotal point in history. Going through this is shit. But we’ll see each other on the other side, and we’ll have work to do when we get there.

out of rep atm. 

[Anastasis 23469]

2 minutes ago, B00M said:

also out of rep 

[Goredho 17406]

Just now, Anastasis said:

out of rep atm. 

Same.

[Anastasis 23469]

1 minute ago, Goredho said:

Same.

Mods should lift the rep limits during this national crisis imo. 

[Hagbard Celine 10864]

12 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

I think it's absolutely a worthy debate. I just think when framed as "Well yeah there are a lot of people that aren't on their deathbeds right now whose deaths we can prevent, but you know that'd be pretty expensive, so maybe we shouldn't," that it's a terrible outlook. Whats serves the greater good in letting the healthcare system get overrun and having hundreds of thousands of preventable deaths, not all of whom are poor QOL elderly folks?

I'm all for our society seriously rethinking how we do stuff like long term care, and I say that as someone who's parent will absolutely need LTC to survive at some point in the not too distant future if COVID doesn't do it. I don't feel like this is the same thing.

Let me net it out.  Eugenics be damned.

My idiot mom and sister-in-law are going to hell or high water get themselves infected, mom will need icu and hardware, and even though she has the economic resources to live forever, she's going to cost me my icu bed and hardware because both she and my SIL are fucktard dipshits (explanation in tree rat forum).

The stupid are going to take hardware and beds away from those that need/deserve a better shot at them.  For no rationale reason at all.

[clapclapclap 9000]

2 hours ago, HenryJames said:

Good news for the SF 49'ers.

[Goredho 17406]

2 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Mods should lift the rep limits during this national crisis imo. 

Still outta rep.

[Goredho 17406]

Occasionally a Facebook meme is sublime.

[clapclapclap 9000]

2 hours ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

China needs to face the heat when this is all over. Sweeping sanctions and international shaming. Fuck them and their Winnie the Poo dictator.

US and China in war of words as Beijing threatens to halt supply of medicine amid coronavirus crisis

[Bevo 13577]

56 minutes ago, Junior Miller said:

That's a downright rosey outlook considering the majority of those deaths and the suffering is likely to occur very rapidly. The country is about to get hit harder in loss of life and raw number of seriously ill than possibly anyone alive now has felt in their lifetime in a short span of time. 

And it will hit Goldman upper management significantly harder than their employees.

[F250 28775]

3 hours ago, RollLeft said:

Mrs Roll wants to know if you put your foot down on this one?

No. It's pretty much a lost cause in our house.

 

[GabrielsHorn 2183]

38 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

my mom is in rio grande county. they have no healthcare resources.  called her an told her to hole up as long as possible. 

Thankfully they also don't get nearly the visitors that way as well. Hope she ends up okay though, I'm sure Alamosa and surrounding areas aren't as high on the food distribution/resources as other places. 

[Sbbruin 21853]

2 hours ago, Iconoclast Texan said:

Nashville closed down all of their bars too 

Went there in the fall.  That’s a lot of bars.

[Gardner Barnes 1562]

Still think it’s the biggest surprise, that for all of the fears or the Alex Jones crowd, the feds have been deliberately staying back.  There has been a lack of guidelines on shutting things down.  
I’m guessing Texas will shut down all schools this week.  

As I posted a bit up thread. TEA will
Make a determination by a Thursday of this week.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13512]

17 minutes ago, Telegraph_it said:

You have not posted all these years on Surly and Shaggy and whatever was before that to be taken out by some virus. Y’all got this. Stay smart, stay informed, and stay inside as much as possible. 
 

See you on the other side! 

Agree that some should absolutely avoid contact with others, but going for a walk outside seems like a good idea to remain healthy. 

[Shut up Lou Holtz 2034]

2 hours ago, HenryJames said:

 

Probably been covered, but does this only extend to events? What about places of employment that would have that amount in the building at one time

[Hagbard Celine 10864]

Stat to incorporate in the narrative: we don't need to build hospitals; we have 54200 hotel properties in the US with 5m+ rooms.  In January occupancy was 55.1%.

Nationalize 50% of the hotels.  Convert the hospitals in to 100% ICU/vent/cpap.

There's the beds.

New York just announced all clubs, bars, theaters, movie theaters, concert venues.  Restaurants remain open for take-away and delivery only.  Effective in 25 hours.

[Not a cat 5656]

Ex wife gets the kids for spring break starting next week and still plans to take them to Florida.  I mean, I'm not that worried about the kids because they're young and healthy, but what kind of a selfish narcissist with no concern for others risks spreading shit in times like this? Oh, never mind, I know what kind.

Flight leaves Saturday so I've got to guess shit is locked down by then.

[Penelope 416]

2 hours ago, Bevo said:

 

Makes you pissed that the ATF fined you an exorbitant amount when times were good, doesn't it? BS fine because an off duty employee in uniform was caught drinking on the premises. I still fail to see the harm and what/who the fine was intended to protect.

Yes

[BrickHorn 18234]

It’s not about mattresses, dude.  It’s the respirator equipment, doctors, nurses, IVs, and medicine that the seriously fucked up dying motherfuckers lying on those mattresses need to survive.  

[BillyGoatHill 4312]

27 minutes ago, Armybrat said:

 

 I do have a nebulizer with some leftover meds for the bronchial infection I had last year (not pneumonia). Would it be useful at all ?

Meds are most likely expired......maybe not. If they are past the date on them, they are probably still OK and better than nothing ( if you can't get refills or to a Doc) though, as many agencies (EMS/Fire/some hospitals) pack up their expired meds and send them to other countries (Mexico) where they are used by clinics and EMS/Fire that otherwise couldn't afford them. 

Just limit your exposure, take your supplements, and wash your hands.

[achooloco 1072]

SIAP but nyc bars not serving food now closed. so it begins

[Anastasis 23469]

Our grandfathers were called to go to fucking war.  You are being asked to sit on your fucking couch and digest a constant stream of netflix while we figure out a vax of antibody to bridge this shit in near term. Suck it up.

 

[TwiceHorn 31470]

3 hours ago, gmr548 said:

No I think it's a valid point. While I honestly didn't know the density difference between two when I shared, I used the "FWIW" tag because obviously one tweet or report is going to tell the full story.

It definitely stands to reason that lower density would aid in controlling the outbreak, with or without social distancing. It also makes sense that Lodi came on stronger because they were case 1 in Italy. Even with all of that said, I highly doubt that whatever impact the difference in density has overshadows the fact that restrictions were enacted earlier in Lodi.

From what I've gathered, Bergamo is a wealthy "bedroom community" for Milan, like a Greenwich or Westchester County.

While Lodi is nearby, also, it doesn't seem to have the attractions of Bergamo.  So maybe it's Paterson, to carry out the analogy.

I'd bet a large number of Bergamo folks spent their days in Milan infecting each other and bringing it back.  Lodi just infected itself.

[J.R. 150]

Is it that fucking hard to build a respirator. Seems like a pneumatic pump some control valves and very simple PLC. Someone school me on this. Sure it would not be perfect but better than nothing. 

[Hagbard Celine 10864]

1 minute ago, Penelope said:

Yes

ATF exists to perpetuate it's existence.  Redundant to multiple entities at local, state and federal levels.

[ChiTownDoc 21154]

8 minutes ago, Hagbard Celine said:

Stat to incorporate in the narrative: we don't need to build hospitals; we have 54200 hotel properties in the US with 5m+ rooms.  In January occupancy was 55.1%.

Nationalize 50% of the hotels.  Convert the hospitals in to 100% ICU/vent/cpap.

There's the beds.

New York just announced all clubs, bars, theaters, movie theaters, concert venues.  Restaurants remain open for take-away and delivery only.  Effective in 25 hours.

Huge news there w NYC.  
 

NW is already setting up triage outside the hospital.   

[Hagbard Celine 10864]

3 minutes ago, BrickHorn said:

It’s not about mattresses, dude.  It’s the respirator equipment, doctors, nurses, IVs, and medicine that the seriously fucked up dying motherfuckers lying on those mattresses need to survive.  

Hey, dude, it's also about having a place to put the 15% that need hospitalization but not ICU, which is a metric fuckton larger number than we have beds for, exclusive of hardware, people, and meds.