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Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

InkaUtexas

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cactusflinthead

cactusflinthead 27608

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"He was never interested in things that might happen. He’s totally focused on the stock market, the economy and always bashing his predecessor and giving him no credit,” the person said. “The possibility things were things he didn’t spend much time on or show much interest in.”

“Even though we would put time on the schedule for things like that, if they happened at all, they would be very, very brief,” the former official continued. “To get the president to be focused on something like this would be quite hard.”

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/16/trump-inauguration-warning-scenario-pandemic-132797

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Uncle Boobs
Uncle Boobs

Against my better judgment and several beers deep, I have taken you up on this, potentially ending my streak of totally worthless posts. I have done 3 and 7 day averages only on the Worldometer data. 

Brisketexan
Brisketexan

Daughter’s home. A little PTSD, we’re picking up Whataburger to help.

Coelenterate Fuccboi
Coelenterate Fuccboi

Just try and imagine GreenspointTexas being the person to intubate you as you fight for your life against COVID-19. You’re laying there gasping for air while he chastises you for all the things you li

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gmr548

gmr548 16617

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Donovan Mitchell is an eye opener. He was only tested because his entire team was. He has no symptoms. Actually said he could play a 7 game series staring tomorrow if scheduled. 
 
How many Mitchell’s are out there that have absolutely no reason to get tested?  On one hand it’s scary because they will spread it. On the other, you know the death rate is much much lower than reported. 
Donavan Mitchell is an elite athlete in his early 20s. He's not exactly representative of the population.

I do agree with you though, we're never going to know the real death rate because we're never going to know how many people get it. Obviously it'll be lower than just deaths/confirmed cases.

What remains true even while knowing that is that 1.) It's significantly higher than the flu; 2.) It's really fucking dangerous for olds, people with heart problems, etc; 3.) It spreads like South Austin's mom's legs.

The death rate will be higher than it needs to be due to lack of precautions. Seattle is starting to get to the triage stage. NYC will absolutely be there in a week or two. It's not 1918 but it's going to end up the worst thing since.
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Deej

Deej 76969

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Neighbor with the shed just came over and gave me weed. 

"Shit's getting real. Thought you might need this."

How long before virus dies on buds, and how long before they come over and kill me for my stockpile of food?

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akhornfan

akhornfan 4

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2 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

Donavan Mitchell is an elite athlete in his early 20s. He's not exactly representative of the population.

I do agree with you though, we're never going to know the real death rate because we're never going to know how many people get it. Obviously it'll be lower than just deaths/confirmed cases.

What remains true even while knowing that is that 1.) It's significantly higher than the flu; 2.) It's really fucking dangerous for olds, people with heart problems, etc; 3.) It spreads like South Austin's mom's legs.

The death rate will be higher than it needs to be due to lack of precautions. Seattle is starting to get to the triage stage. NYC will absolutely be there in a week or two. It's not 1918 but it's going to end up the worst thing since.

Washington reported 2 deaths occurring on 3/15. They are not in triage mode 

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gmr548

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Even with shut downs a complete shut down of social life happening everywhere starting with the NBA on the 12th at 1600 cases...now close to everything is closed or shut down on 3/16 at 4600 cases. Italy had 7375 on 3/8..the day they went into shutdown mode. 

 

we're also much, much more spread out than italy is. I have no idea if we'll see a ratio as bad as italys at 7.7% mortality. but if we're using italys day by day stuff considering our land mass/population size, we're not even in italys atmosphere....so far.

 

Yeah, but the US case count isn't anywhere near reliable.

 

Edit: Also, Italy didn't go into shutdown until like five days ago. They tried locking down towns, then provinces, to prevent spread outward but it didn't work.

 

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Hmmm

Hmmm 155

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22 minutes ago, GreenspointTexas said:

Sorry you dont like the truth. I thought people on here were more educated and prepared than that. Also, didnt know so much of surly was living paycheck to paycheck

when you discuss politics/philosophy, do you not consider those "below" you?  do you have any friends/family that are not as fortunate as you? it's as if nobody drinks coors light in your botique beer haven world.

don't answer that question.  i already know and don't want to CR.

Edited by Hmmm
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Don Johnson

Don Johnson 4757

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2 minutes ago, gmr548 said:
11 minutes ago, Don Johnson said:
Deaths are the only measurement that will matter. We will never have a clue how many actually have/had it. 

Ansolutely agree. The ultimate death count is going to be 100 percent inclusive either, though.

The death count is going to be pretty close to accurate. 

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Pato del Muerto

Pato del Muerto 52623

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3 minutes ago, gmr548 said:
12 minutes ago, Don Johnson said:
Deaths are the only measurement that will matter. We will never have a clue how many actually have/had it. 

Ansolutely agree. The ultimate death count is going to be 100 percent inclusive either, though.

Plus the people that died of flu or trauma because there weren’t any beds or doctors to administer care due to covid patients everywhere.  Those won’t get counted as covid deaths. 

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Scheiss Meister

Scheiss Meister 8413

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7 hours ago, Scheiss Meister said:

Sorry, I wasn't clear.  I have no symptoms, but I have underlying conditions that greatly elevate my risk.  So, I'm staying out of the way for a while.  I was kind of in shock, so, sorry for the lack of clarity.

Self quoting to complete this delightful story.  When I went by to pick up my documentation for work, he had reconsidered, and decided that I don't need to self isolate, after all.  I know he's stressed, too, but getting that recommendation first would have been great.  I jumped through my ass to get ready, only to be told, "Oh.  That's different.  Never mind."  

Ok, hissy fit finished.

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SydneyCarton

SydneyCarton 48212

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1 minute ago, Scheiss Meister said:

Self quoting to complete this delightful story.  When I went by to pick up my documentation for work, he had reconsidered, and decided that I don't need to self isolate, after all.  I know he's stressed, too, but getting that recommendation first would have been great.  I jumped through my ass to get ready, only to be told, "Oh.  That's different.  Never mind."  

Ok, hissy fit finished.

Can you do us all a favor? Maybe give Greenspoint tips on how to have a melt down without being a combination of a profusely bleeding axe wound and a sleep deprived toddler? That would be grand. 
 

Bonus points if you can teach the male nurse who apparently married real well or was left a trust fund to maybe dial down the entitlement dial from Rex Kramer to Just A Regular Prick. Thanks in advance. 

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gmr548

gmr548 16617

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Washington reported 2 deaths occurring on 3/15. They are not in triage mode 

No, but they're heading into it, which is what I said. Data is on a lag because of the timeline of the disease. They've got sick healthcare workers and hospitals getting to capacity. They're openly talking about how to handle it. The deaths will come as the disease runs its course, unfortunately.
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cactusflinthead

cactusflinthead 27608

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16 minutes ago, Hmmm said:

when you discuss politics/philosophy, do you not consider those "below" you?  do you have any friends/family that are not as fortunate as you? it's as if nobody drinks coors light in your botique beer haven world.

don't answer that question.  i already know and don't want to CR.

Are you kinda new?

Check him out in a game thread some time.

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akhornfan

akhornfan 4

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17 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Plus the people that died of flu or trauma because there weren’t any beds or doctors to administer care due to covid patients everywhere.  Those won’t get counted as covid deaths. 

Looking at WA data and it would appear they’re testing post mortem.  We are absolutely going to know how many die. 

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Hmmm

Hmmm 155

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5 minutes ago, cactusflinthead said:

Are you kinda new?

Check him out in a game thread some time.

complete new. this site is absolutely foreign to me.

he's like 6th street but with a better taste in beer.  and, while 6th street appears to be an act to stimulate discourse, GP seems more authentic. don't follow politics so no idea about that.

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cactusflinthead

cactusflinthead 27608

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Just now, Hmmm said:

complete new. this site is absolutely foreign to me.

he's like South Austin but with a better taste in beer.  and, while South Austin appears to be an act to stimulate discourse, GP seems more authentic. don't follow politics so no idea about that.

Welcome to the buncha assholes!

Oh THERE'S NO POLITICS IN DT

you gotta get in CR for that.

Sorry, old name of the political junkies threads. CR=Cloak Room

 

 

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JBJ

JBJ 3668

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22 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

4,312 cases of coronavirus confirmed by lab tests and 79 deaths, according to a New York Times database.

 

1 hour ago, akhornfan said:

Data without thought and analysis is useless. 

In the spirit of this, I'm going to start posting daily projections based on the case reporting at worldometers.  It's less than ideal, but it actually gives us some sort of metric to show if growth might be declining.  I'm looking back at our growth rate over 10 days and then projecting what today is based on the overall trend.  The growth rate is decently consistent so far back going back to the begining of March.

10-day GR = 32.5% (obviously 0% is the end-all goal).

Today's O/U = 4,875 total  1,195 new

It stands at 4,667 and 987 currently.

 

...I've modelled this several ways already, but, given the data that we have, an exponential model of total cases seems to be the best fit - it's actually 0.95 R2 which seems extraordinary for this type of thing.  I don't think it'll hold up as infection runs it's course, though.  It seems to me that a model for new infections based on the ratio of existing cases and uninfected population is closer to correct (growth rate should naturally decline as the infection runs out of room to spread).  If anyone knows better methods, let me know.  This is a wholly new topic to me.

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Dahobbs

Dahobbs 17701

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56 minutes ago, Hozz said:

Keeping up with this thread is almost a full time job.

There is way more hysteria on display here than I would have guessed.  Also it would be awesome if people just picked one or the other DT or CR thread on this topic and stick to just the one.

I'm 46 and fat.  I'm not worried about this virus at all personally, and I don't have a spleen.  I don't get sick much and if a virus is going to take me out, so be it.  My diet is red meat and alcohol and I've had a good run.  I am a little bit concerned for my FIL, he is late 70s, and my mom who is 71.  Still, as long as they take the precautions they should, I don't think its likely they get infected and then even if they do, they are way more likely to recover than die according to the best data I can find.  https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ I'm in IT so its pretty easy to do my job from anywhere that has internet.  My company finally issued a WFH until further notice decree this morning.

I'm way more concerned with the recession we seem to be headed for and with entire sectors of the economy being utterly destroyed.  Our middle son does contract AV work for conferences and sporting events....he literally has nothing scheduled for the first time ever.  Airlines are selling off or retiring part of their fleets.  Hotels are empty and/or closed.  We eat at the same place every Sunday night, the bartender we are friendly with said he covered a shift for someone the day before and had just two tables in two hours before being sent home.  The place was like 20% of normal capacity, parking lot empty when you usually have to park in the back.  What are all these hourly/tip wage work force people supposed to do?

Finally, for the people pushing for federal or state 'lockdowns'...that would be a fucking disaster.  There would be an immediate run on literally everything.  My wife went out to the nearest Walmart and HEB this afternoon and she said pretty much everything was picked over.  Surprising me, beer and wine was fully stocked but that was about the only items in our normal rotation she was able to purchase.

I'm not sure if you intend this or not, but the idea that just not shutting down would not also cause economic disaster is misguided. If we don't shut things down, the economy would collapse when hundreds of thousands of people need hospital care and can't get it. The economy would collapse when hundreds or thousands are dying per day. The economy would collapse as people naturally stop going out due to the waves of sick and dead. We aren't getting out of this without further economic hurt, no matter what path we choose. Let's not pretend otherwise.  To rephrase, it isn't about you, one person, getting sick or dying. It is about hundreds of thousands or millions getting sick at the same time. A recession is a given. What isn't a given is how much work it takes to recover and how many have to die along the way. We can work towards the best of some bad choices, but only if we act. 

Edited by Dahobbs
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Hmmm

Hmmm 155

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5 minutes ago, cactusflinthead said:

Welcome to the buncha assholes!

Oh THERE'S NO POLITICS IN DT

you gotta get in CR for that.

Sorry, old name of the political junkies threads. CR=Cloak Room

 

 

thanks for the welcome.  it's not exactly shaggy tradition.  honestly, I've been around for more than a decade. and apologies to South Austin (and your mom) for confusing you with 6th street.  two complete opposites.

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akhornfan

akhornfan 4

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10 minutes ago, JBJ said:

 

 

In the spirit of this, I'm going to start posting daily projections based on the case reporting at worldometers.  It's less than ideal, but it actually gives us some sort of metric to show if growth might be declining.  I'm looking back at our growth rate over 10 days and then projecting what today is based on the overall trend.  The growth rate is decently consistent so far back going back to the begining of March.

10-day GR = 32.5% (obviously 0% is the end-all goal).

Today's O/U = 4,875 total  1,195 new

It stands at 4,667 and 987 currently.

 

...I've modelled this several ways already, but, given the data that we have, an exponential model of total cases seems to be the best fit - it's actually 0.95 R2 which seems extraordinary for this type of thing.  I don't think it'll hold up as infection runs it's course, though.  It seems to me that a model for new infections based on the ratio of existing cases and uninfected population is closer to correct (growth rate should naturally decline as the infection runs out of room to spread).  If anyone knows better methods, let me know.  This is a wholly new topic to me.

This is pointless as the methodology for testing is changing - apples to oranges. Conversation needs to change to deaths as the major metric.

BNO reported 6 only and a total at 81. Is someone seeing a source showing differently?

 

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GreenspointTexas

GreenspointTexas 9685

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2 minutes ago, akhornfan said:

This is pointless as the methodology for testing is changing - apples to oranges. Conversation needs to change to deaths as the major metric.

BNO reported 6 only and a total at 81. Is someone seeing a source showing differently?

 

Weve added 19 deaths today and are now at 87

 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

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South Austin

South Austin 52634

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8 minutes ago, Hmmm said:

thanks for the welcome.  it's not exactly shaggy tradition.  honestly, I've been around for more than a decade. and apologies to South Austin (and your mom) for confusing you with 6th street.  two complete opposites.

No offense taken. Just so we’re clear, I don’t usually stir up debate. I go for the cheap laugh. Usually at my own expense. And my poor mom’s.

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DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt

DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12301

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1 hour ago, Hozz said:

I'm 46 and fat.  I'm not worried about this virus at all personally, and I don't have a spleen.  I don't get sick much and if a virus is going to take me out, so be it.  My diet is red meat and alcohol and I've had a good run.

I dare one of you fucktards to post something more American.

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Not a cat

Not a cat 5720

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1 minute ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

I dare one of you fucktards to post something more American.

Kind of like how the perfect country music song needs trains, mama and prison, this post lacks any reference to firearms.  But it is quite good.

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Trey3216

Trey3216 15378

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51 minutes ago, Deej said:

Neighbor with the shed just came over and gave me weed. 

"Shit's getting real. Thought you might need this."

How long before virus dies on buds, and how long before they come over and kill me for my stockpile of food?

Man, he just wants you to get stoned, eat all your food, and then you have to buy all your food from him going forward.  

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