Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

[dcar00 14210]

36 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

I fear, if you are right and we have managed to do something over the last couple of days, the folks that have been saying no big deal this whole time will claim that they were correct. See Dcar00 and akhornfan. And that'll make it all the worse when it pops up again.

IMO, its been a process.  shut down China, Shut down Europe,  slowly start pushing the populace to quarantine without starting mass panic/immediate lockdown, get working on the vax asap, etc. I agree Trump's riffing(Keep Calm/Move On)  is no bueno and they may have fallen into some of this along the way.  we may have dodged a bullet or the bullet may have been similar to Swine.  we will see.

FYI, I haven't been outside except to go to work(office of less than 10 people and we all have separate offices) since Friday PM and neither has my family.

You have no idea what has been going on behind the scenes and neither do I.  It would be like me blaming Obama for 12K US deaths during H1N1.  I'm sure the guy did the absolute best he could and I'm sure it could have been worse.

It ain't over, this could turn into a shitshow, and I hope for success.  I totally agree we need a lockdown plan that everyone can understand like defcon levels when a national emergency is declared.  call it early.  everyone knows what to do. Who is critical employee, what stays open, what closes, limits on critical items, etc.  I am sure there is a shitload we can learn from.

The good news and bad news is everyone is connected and we have a great private supply chain.  I wouldn't be opposed to paying taxes for a months worth of critical items to be rotated by supply chain experts like Amazon and WalMart.

Yes I wondered why we didn't do this during swine 10 years ago. maybe we dodged a bullet there also.

you could even use this during hurricanes/super storm Sandy type situations. Obviously on a regional basis in these types of situations.

Edited March 17, 2020 by dcar00

[Radical Larry 28621]

 

[workswithseed 2109]

30 minutes ago, Parliament said:

42 minutes ago, HRSchenker said:

How exactly would a San Francisco style 24 hour lockdown work in a city like Dallas? Are they going to pull people over who are driving around?

National Guard checkpoints. I'm not talking about the Military lighting people up with 50 cal's, but at least shaming these people into going home. Maybe put one cop with each group to write tickets. Just harass people into doing the right thing. Every little bit helps.

Seems authoritarian.

[ChiTownDoc 21154]

2 minutes ago, Lobwedgephil said:

I agree with you, and think we are finally doing the necessary steps to hopefully flatten the curve. But I am surprised at the actual reports so far being low, I know we aren't testing really, but I would have thought we would have reports out of hospitals all over the country being overwhelmed, since this has been in the U.S. since January 20th at least. That is just surprising me for now, but I am guessing that could change in the coming days, and unfortunately probably will be. 

I work very closely with Northwestern.  They only have a few hundred tests they can do a day.  Their entire systems probably sees 10000+ a day between all the community hospitals.  Many mildly symptomatic are not being tested...they're told to go home and self quarantine.  This isn't a NW problem, this is the norm.  Very few places are able to test anyone - you have to fit a narrow criterion to even get tested.  It's no surprise we have a few thousand positives and many are famous people we know.  There's seriously hundreds a day that are negative for regular flu, strep, RSV etc etc...makes you wonder what they could possibly have - but can't test them.  I am confident in my hundreds of thousands having it by now number. 

[dcar00 14210]

16 minutes ago, Hate said:

I'm not sure that anyone has said "it's no big deal".  For most of the population, it is in fact no big deal, but that other 20% is a big number.  I think most people you think are calling it "no big deal" are simply pointing out that this has been in and around North America for much longer than anyone knows and that based on that we shouldn't anticpate we are indeed 2 weeks behind Italy.  This week will tell the tale, but the predictions by the cheerleaders like Greenspoint that there will be bodies in the trees and in the streets doesn't seem to be materializing here...yet.  The virus has been here since January 1 most likely (if not before).  Why aren't we seeing bodies stacked in the halls like Italy?  I'm glad we've taken the steps we have a s a country and I hope that the next 2 weeks sees a huge reduction of new cases and a return to as close to normal as we can get for the foreseeable future. 

we are going to get a big rise in new cases in US. maybe you meant world though.

[ChiTownDoc 21154]

5 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Oof. On the phone with daughter now. For the first time, tears. Mourning the early end of her rez experience - “I was cheated out of the last two months of my first year of college. I’ll never get to live here in the dorm again.”
Yeah, in the grand scheme of things, not the biggest disaster. But I feel her.
Do you want to come home? “I just don’t know.” Just...tears. Fuck.

 My physician asst has to cancel their April wedding, his wife is crying and devastated.  He's a millennial and was also debby downer...I told him he needs to STFU and it's ok for his wife to cry but not him.  He's the best but needs some tough love at times.  

[Jersey Man10 3534]

Not to be an insensitive bastard but I'm glad I don't have kids yet. I don't think I could handle that right now.

[Brisketexan 105143]

 My physician asst has to cancel their April wedding, his wife is crying and devastated.  He's a millennial and was also debby downer...I told him he needs to STFU and it's ok for his wife to cry but not him.  He's the best but needs some tough love at times.  

My wife marries couples for a living. She has several April and May weddings on the books. Already canceling and rescheduling many. Some are more upset than others...and a couple are trying to soldier on - “it’s a small wedding!”

[Lobwedgephil 1139]

3 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

I work very closely with Northwestern.  They only have a few hundred tests they can do a day.  Their entire systems probably sees 10000+ a day between all the community hospitals.  Many mildly symptomatic are not being tested...they're told to go home and self quarantine.  This isn't a NW problem, this is the norm.  Very few places are able to test anyone - you have to fit a narrow criterion to even get tested.  It's no surprise we have a few thousand positives and many are famous people we know.  There's seriously hundreds a day that are negative for regular flu, strep, RSV etc etc...makes you wonder what they could possibly have - but can't test them.  I am confident in my hundreds of thousands having it by now number. 

I agree with you, the number is probably even higher, but why haven't the hospitals been flooded yet? That many cases should been a large amount of very sick. 

[The People’s Elbow 707]

47 minutes ago, Cousin Strawberry said:

When I was voting a few weeks ago, the dude behind me called his broker.  His conversation was like "hey, my neighbor said he made over a million dollars yesterday with ops or puts or shorts or whatever, I want to do that."

Fuck, dude. That story is so awesome. Tell it again. 

[Constant 6732]

45 minutes til day one of the ban on restaurants and bars goes into effect for Dallas. Gonna be interesting in how we enforce this exactly. We haven’t received any instructions about it at all. 

[rage-a-holic 4400]

9 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Oof. On the phone with daughter now. For the first time, tears. Mourning the early end of her rez experience - “I was cheated out of the last two months of my first year of college. I’ll never get to live here in the dorm again.”
Yeah, in the grand scheme of things, not the biggest disaster. But I feel her.
Do you want to come home? “I just don’t know.” Just...tears. Fuck.

Tell her to STFU. Getting kicked out of Castilian was the best thing that happened to my freshman social life.

[UDontKnow 10445]

2 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

 My physician asst has to cancel their April wedding, his wife is crying and devastated.  He's a millennial and was also debby downer...I told him he needs to STFU and it's ok for his wife to cry but not him.  He's the best but needs some tough love at times.  

I'm sure you reminded him how much money he's spending on the wedding. I'm sure he'll be okay with holding on to it a little bit longer.

It's hard to find a woman that's okay with just getting married in the court system and saving the splurging on something more realistic like a home, vehicle, retirement, kids' education, etc. All that money blown for a single day and in American it's a 50% chance that the marriage won't last.

[UDontKnow 10445]

3 minutes ago, Lobwedgephil said:

I agree with you, the number is probably even higher, but why haven't the hospitals been flooded yet? That many cases should been a large amount of very sick. 

Not necessarily, the majority of those cases might actually be younger, asymptomatic/mildly symptomatic carriers not requiring hospitalization.

[Captainant 27671]

4 minutes ago, Jersey Man10 said:

Not to be an insensitive bastard but I'm glad I don't have kids yet. I don't think I could handle that right now.

Holy fuck, YES. Every call/video conference I had today had screaming kids in the background. I wouldn't last 24 hours.

[akhornfan 4]

4 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

My wife marries couples for a living. She has several April and May weddings on the books. Already canceling and rescheduling many. Some are more upset than others...and a couple are trying to soldier on - “it’s a small wedding!”

That’s one of the worst parts of this going. Trying to figure out how to support the small businesses in our area. 

[UDontKnow 10445]

5 minutes ago, Constant said:

45 minutes til day one of the ban on restaurants and bars goes into effect for Dallas. Gonna be interesting in how we enforce this exactly. We haven’t received any instructions about it at all. 

Godspeed Constant, godspeed.

[Cousin Strawberry 1261]

6 minutes ago, The People’s Elbow said:

Fuck, dude. That story is so awesome. Tell it again. 

I have never told that story. Are you slow?  

Edited March 17, 2020 by Cousin Strawberry
After research People's Elbow is a waterhead retard. So sorry I engaged with a tard.

[Anastasis 23469]

1 minute ago, Captainant said:

Holy fuck, YES. Every call/video conference I had today had screaming kids in the background. I wouldn't last 24 hours.

The problem is not the first 24 hours.  I have serious concerns about what happens when we are legging out the third week of a lock down.

[Hate 20108]

7 minutes ago, Lobwedgephil said:

I agree with you, the number is probably even higher, but why haven't the hospitals been flooded yet? That many cases should been a large amount of very sick. 

That's what I've been asking for a while now and the only answer I've heard is "it's coming".  The virus has most likely been here just as long as it has been in Italy.

[ChiTownDoc 21154]

25 minutes ago, Doc Reeves said:

Your ideas interest me and id like to subscribe to your news letter.

Shit, I think I feel sorry for you, but you're getting the newsletter, good sir...it's all right here, love it or hate it. 

[bigcigar 1164]

OU sucks

[Beau Vine 54230]

2 hours ago, SquishMitten said:

The aches, fatigue, brain fog, and cough are all a bit worse, and now I’m dealing with excessive diarrhea. What the fuck is wrong with my body?!?!?

Welcome to Old.  How's the ear hair?

[ChiTownDoc 21154]

9 minutes ago, UDontKnow said:

I'm sure you reminded him how much money he's spending on the wedding. I'm sure he'll be okay with holding on to it a little bit longer.

It's hard to find a woman that's okay with just getting married in the court system and saving the splurging on something more realistic like a home, vehicle, retirement, kids' education, etc. All that money blown for a single day and in American it's a 50% chance that the marriage won't last.

I actually told him if he'd quit crying and help us get through the hell that is converting on the fly to telemedicine etc...I'd cover his open bar for the whole damn thing.  He perked up real fast.  But if he cries again, I'm glad you armed me with that last sentence...

[Hozz 1017]

1 hour ago, achooloco said:

so whats your suggestion for flattening the curve?

I don't have the answer.  I just think destroying entire sectors of the economy by shutting shit down isn't the answer.  Maybe it is, maybe we'll see that, maybe we won't.  I am on the side of this isn't that big of a deal.  There is no winning that argument though.  3 months from now, if our casualties are Italy level, then the people that wanted shit shut down ASAP are going to have an argument and it would be hard to make a case against that.  But if the casualties are not at that rate?  Then it just becomes a discussion on should we have acted sooner or did we overreact?  We won't ever know.  My guess right now is we have around 1000 deaths entering the Summer.  Not great but a far cry from the 500K some alarmists have speculated.

edit: My sister is an ER doc in a Missouri suburb.  She is more concerned with this situation than I thought she would be, mostly due to her hospital not having a ton of ventilators.  I also have a best friend since high school that is a GI doc in Houston, he sees this like I do, its not a big deal and is being overblown.

Edited March 17, 2020 by Hozz
doctors

[ChiTownDoc 21154]

14 minutes ago, Lobwedgephil said:

I agree with you, the number is probably even higher, but why haven't the hospitals been flooded yet? That many cases should been a large amount of very sick. 

UDon'tKnow covered it.  But let me take it a step further.  NW is having a BITCH of a time discharging any respiratory patients to skilled rehab buildings.  Because everyone on the inside knows some of these are likely COVID...so you have places that are usually thirsty for admissions giving a hard no.  And so the damn hospitals are already more full then they should be.  So it begins...

[ChiTownDoc 21154]

5 minutes ago, bigcigar said:

OU sucks

COVID>OU

It's known.  Sadly. 

[atomheartbevo 89674]

So tomorrow will be our first day with 1,000+ new cases, but idiots are still out there partying down.   

Somebody on tv tried to compare it to those folks who hang out in an area just about to be hit by hurricane.    Except, you now, those dipshits can’t carry a hurricane around with them when they travel back home or wherever. 

So Austin/TC are still being mum about how many they are testing.  

[bigcigar 1164]

Just now, ChiTownDoc said:

COVID>OU

It's known.  Sadly. 

In terms of sucking, OU has no rival

[Lobwedgephil 1139]

2 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

UDon'tKnow covered it.  But let me take it a step further.  NW is having a BITCH of a time discharging any respiratory patients to skilled rehab buildings.  Because everyone on the inside knows some of these are likely COVID...so you have places that are usually thirsty for admissions giving a hard no.  And so the damn hospitals are already more full then they should be.  So it begins...

Thanks. 

[wild_turkey 3159]

My wife marries couples for a living. She has several April and May weddings on the books. Already canceling and rescheduling many. Some are more upset than others...and a couple are trying to soldier on - “it’s a small wedding!”

We have friends who are supposed to have their wedding in Puerto Vallarta in early May. They are slowly starting to accept that isn’t going to happen. They are heartbroken over it and understandably so.

I definitely feel bad for them but the cold reality is that many people are about to lose much more than that - jobs, homes, businesses, financial ruin, and most importantly, health and loss of life or loss of loved ones.

If someone comes out the other side of this with their biggest personal damage being a wedding disrupted, they probably will be considered lucky.

[JBJ 3654]

17 minutes ago, Constant said:

45 minutes til day one of the ban on restaurants and bars goes into effect for Dallas. Gonna be interesting in how we enforce this exactly. We haven’t received any instructions about it at all. 

I'd start by just pointing the MP5s at people and seeing if they move.

[akhornfan 4]

1 minute ago, atomheartbevo said:

So tomorrow will be our first day with 1,000+ new cases, but idiots are still out there partying down.   

Somebody on tv tried to compare it to those folks who hang out in an area just about to be hit by hurricane.    Except, you now, those dipshits can’t carry a hurricane around with them when they travel back home or wherever. 

So Austin/TC are still being mum about how many they are testing.  

You’re in line to be the next @GreenspointTexas

[ChiTownDoc 21154]

4 minutes ago, Hozz said:

I don't have the answer.  I just think destroying entire sectors of the economy by shutting shit down isn't the answer.  Maybe it is, maybe we'll see that, maybe we won't.  I am on the side of this isn't that big of a deal.  There is no winning that argument though.  3 months from now, if our casualties are Italy level, then the people that wanted shit shut down ASAP are going to have an argument and it would be hard to make a case against that.  But if the casualties are not at that rate?  Then it just becomes a discussion on should we have acted sooner or did we overreact?  We won't ever know.  My guess right now is we have around 1000 deaths entering the Summer.  Not great but a far cry from the 500K some alarmists have speculated.

You don't agree with me but I think I can respect that.  At least you seem to understand we are all doing what we think is best and you're not proposing some crazy conspiracy.  And you're right in that if somebody wants to argue one side or the other, of this debate...even after the dust settles you may not change that person's mind.  

[dcar00 14210]

40 minutes ago, bolverk said:

5-10 cases in the wild for every confirmed one according to this.

 

IMO this is a pull it out of your ass number for an article but what if this is true?

[Hanrahan 1306]

We have friends who are supposed to have their wedding in Puerto Vallarta in early May. They are slowly starting to accept that isn’t going to happen. They are heartbroken over it and understandably so.

I definitely feel bad for them but the cold reality is that many people are about to lose much more than that - jobs, homes, businesses, financial ruin, and most importantly, health and loss of life or loss of loved ones.

If someone comes out the other side of this with their biggest personal damage being a wedding disrupted, they probably will be considered lucky.

I am in Puerto Vallarta now. No Covid here. It’s nice.

[Beau Vine 54230]

1 hour ago, dcar00 said:

the Fauci quote about 70% of new cases coming from europe now is interesting.  I don't believe China went to zero over the entire last week.  I hope to hell he is right but that is based on China numbers(along with SK) mainly and Russia with only 70 cases.

Why have we heard so little about Africa?

[dcar00 14210]

Just now, Beau Vine said:

Why have we heard so little about Africa?

Africa is hot as fuck. nothing survives there.  oh and its Africa

[ChiTownDoc 21154]

6 minutes ago, Beau Vine said:

Why have we heard so little about Africa?

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3550308

I think for the most part they fall out of the prime latitudes that are susceptible...but Australia has it spreading right?  Part of it is not testing enough and the other part, I'm guessing, is the latitude for the majority of Africa. 

Edit: dcar00 scooped me on the other (or main) reason...not a lot of travel from 'hot zones' to africa. 

Edited March 17, 2020 by ChiTownDoc

[closetojumping 62730]

5 minutes ago, Hozz said:

I don't have the answer.  I just think destroying entire sectors of the economy by shutting shit down isn't the answer.  Maybe it is, maybe we'll see that, maybe we won't.  I am on the side of this isn't that big of a deal.  There is no winning that argument though.  3 months from now, if our casualties are Italy level, then the people that wanted shit shut down ASAP are going to have an argument and it would be hard to make a case against that.  But if the casualties are not at that rate?  Then it just becomes a discussion on should we have acted sooner or did we overreact?  We won't ever know.  My guess right now is we have around 1000 deaths entering the Summer.  Not great but a far cry from the 500K some alarmists have speculated.

What kind of psychopath would be actively following this thread and then still have the fucking audacity to willingly type “I’m on the side of this isn’t that big of a deal”? There are at least 15 posters that are going to read that and start actively plotting your murder for your insouciance. 

Also, in the winter of 2017/2018, the US had over 3,000 people a week dying due to an especially angry flu that season. Your death numbers for targets and such aren’t even interesting. I assume we are trying to avoid 6 or 7 figure death totals in the US. If we’ve NowThis’d the global economy to trim 50,000 deaths down to 5,000 in the US, we’ve fucking done it wrong. I’m assuming some pretty fucking bright people calling the shots in various ways have good indicators that this is going to be a 6 figures event in the US no matter what. 

[MNLonghornFUKM 8817]

We have friends who are supposed to have their wedding in Puerto Vallarta in early May. They are slowly starting to accept that isn’t going to happen. They are heartbroken over it and understandably so.

I definitely feel bad for them but the cold reality is that many people are about to lose much more than that - jobs, homes, businesses, financial ruin, and most importantly, health and loss of life or loss of loved ones.

If someone comes out the other side of this with their biggest personal damage being a wedding disrupted, they probably will be considered lucky.

Yea but what if they reschedule and the only date available is on a college football Saturday ?

[dcar00 14210]

Just now, ChiTownDoc said:

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3550308

I think for the most part they fall out of the prime latitudes that are susceptible...but Australia has it spreading right?  Part of it is not testing enough and the other part, I'm guessing, is the latitude for the majority of Africa. 

you ever see Chinese in Africa?  there you go.

[ChiTownDoc 21154]

Just now, dcar00 said:

you ever see Chinese in Africa?  there you go.

LOL, that's definitely part of it.  Duly noted. 

[dcar00 14210]

1 minute ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

Yea but what if they reschedule and the only date available is on a college football Saturday ?

If she rolls with OU weekend I'm going long on 3 years being the over under.

[closetojumping 62730]

2 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3550308

I think for the most part they fall out of the prime latitudes that are susceptible...but Australia has it spreading right?  Part of it is not testing enough and the other part, I'm guessing, is the latitude for the majority of Africa. 

I assume you know fully well that the flu never goes in or out of season near the equator. It’s always mildly, softly there and people randomly do catch it. That’s pretty much what it looks like has occurred in Australia and some other countries coming off summer, and I’d assume why there’s a little blotch here or there around the equator itself. 

Hell, it would be interesting to see if there’s an official count for how many flu positives Australia has had in the last two months, as some sort of control group or parallel. 

[bigcigar 1164]

3 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

insouciance

There’s no way that’s a word

[Hmmm 155]

29 minutes ago, rage-a-holic said:

Tell her to STFU. Getting kicked out of Castilian was the best thing that happened to my freshman social life.

how tf you get kicked out of the Castle.  different times I guess.  RAs were moderate in my times and social life was great being in a co-ed dorm that shared floors.

[Schulz2.0 28951]

9 minutes ago, Beau Vine said:

Why have we heard so little about Africa?

Its summer there would be my guess.

[ChiTownDoc 21154]

1 minute ago, closetojumping said:

I assume you know fully well that the flu never goes in or out of season near the equator. It’s always mildly, softly there and people randomly do catch it. That’s pretty much what it looks like has occurred in Australia and some other countries coming off summer, and I’d assume why there’s a little blotch here or there around the equator itself. 

Hell, it would be interesting to see if there’s an official count for how many flu positives Australia has had in the last two months, as some sort of control group or parallel. 

Yep, that's kind of what I referenced with the white paper.  The reason I showed that white paper on coronavirus is there's some debate amongst the nerds whether or not COVID will follow the seasonal pattern or continue to buttfuck us. I subscribe to it being more traditional. 

[dcar00 14210]

1 minute ago, closetojumping said:

I assume you know fully well that the flu never goes in or out of season near the equator. It’s always mildly, softly there and people randomly do catch it. That’s pretty much what it looks like has occurred in Australia and some other countries coming off summer, and I’d assume why there’s a little blotch here or there around the equator itself. 

Hell, it would be interesting to see if there’s an official count for how many flu positives Australia has had in the last two months, as some sort of control group or parallel. 

good luck with that.  "Austrailia has it! this virus is heat immune!"