Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

[dcar00 14181]

OK honey, Ecuador is our next stop!

[UDontKnow 10444]

11 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

you ever see Chinese in Africa?  there you go.

Are you familiar with the Belt and Road initiative by China? There are definitely Chinese in Africa.

In Africa, there are ways to die a quicker and more painful death. Hemorrhagic viral illness (e.g. Ebola, Marburg) say howdy!

[Lobwedgephil 1139]

9 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

you ever see Chinese in Africa?  there you go.

Lol, hope that is not serious? China is everywhere in Africa, have been for years. You aren't hearing anything from Africa, because it is Africa. 

[dcar00 14181]

Just now, UDontKnow said:

Are you familiar with the Belt and Road initiative by China? There are definitely Chinese in Africa.

In Africa, there are ways to die a quicker and more painful death. Hemorrhagic viral illness (e.g. Ebola, Marburg) say howdy!

those aren't real deep in country bat eating Chinese.

[Helobious 9448]

19 minutes ago, Hozz said:

I don't have the answer.  I just think destroying entire sectors of the economy by shutting shit down isn't the answer.  Maybe it is, maybe we'll see that, maybe we won't.  I am on the side of this isn't that big of a deal.  There is no winning that argument though.  3 months from now, if our casualties are Italy level, then the people that wanted shit shut down ASAP are going to have an argument and it would be hard to make a case against that.  But if the casualties are not at that rate?  Then it just becomes a discussion on should we have acted sooner or did we overreact?  We won't ever know.  My guess right now is we have around 1000 deaths entering the Summer.  Not great but a far cry from the 500K some alarmists have speculated.

edit: My sister is an ER doc in a Missouri suburb.  She is more concerned with this situation than I thought she would be, mostly due to her hospital not having a ton of ventilators.  I also have a best friend since high school that is a GI doc in Houston, he sees this like I do, its not a big deal and is being overblown.

If we don’t see that many deaths from this 3 months from now, that means the measures taken worked. This thing killed 21 people in one month in a nursing home that averaged about 5 deaths a month, even in flu season. Imagine that going unhindered through the population. It needed to be dealt with. The economy will recover just fine. 

[dcar00 14181]

Just now, Lobwedgephil said:

Lol, hope that is not serious? China is everywhere in Africa, have been for years. You aren't hearing anything from Africa, because it is Africa. 

christ no I wasn't serious. I was joking with the sooner. see my other response.  its hot as fuck and its Africa

[Bama Chick 28596]

Great thread from a computational biologist with his take.

 

 

And the last post in his thread explaining why overall population health and the health of a country’s economy are linked is a great point.

 

 

Yeah, short term lockdowns are going to hurt economically but doing nothing in the short term could be economically fatal on a much bigger scale.

 

One situation can be recovered from with less loss of life, the other however......

[UDontKnow 10444]

2 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

those aren't real deep in country bat eating Chinese.

You telling me that people in Africa don't eat exotic game or whatever the proper term for these animals found in wet markets? Central Africa has one of the largest wet markets in the world. I'm sure you've heard the theory of HIV being a zoonotic illness which was transferred from non-human primates to us.

[Beau Vine 54211]

49 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Oof. On the phone with daughter now. For the first time, tears. Mourning the early end of her rez experience - “I was cheated out of the last two months of my first year of college. I’ll never get to live here in the dorm again.”
Yeah, in the grand scheme of things, not the biggest disaster. But I feel her.
Do you want to come home? “I just don’t know.” Just...tears. Fuck.

My daughter bought her graduation gear today.  They told her, "In the event of graduation being cancelled, you'll get a refund."

That really set her off and she rarely cries.  

[dcar00 14181]

7 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Yep, that's kind of what I referenced with the white paper.  The reason I showed that white paper on coronavirus is there's some debate amongst the nerds whether or not COVID will follow the seasonal pattern or continue to buttfuck us. I subscribe to it being more traditional. 

could be either but I'm going to go occam's razor

[clapclapclap 9000]

18 minutes ago, Beau Vine said:

Why have we heard so little about Africa?

Toto ain't cool any more.

[UDontKnow 10444]

1 minute ago, Beau Vine said:

My daughter bought her graduation gear today.  They told her, "In the event of graduation being cancelled, you'll get a refund."

That really set her off and she rarely cries.  

Which graduation? Remind her it's better to be miserable than it is to be dead. Or that if she dies, her graduation was completely in vain.

[dcar00 14181]

1 minute ago, Bama Chick said:

Great thread from a computational biologist with his take.

 

 

And the last post in his thread explaining why overall population health and the health of a country’s economy are linked is a great point.



Yeah, short term lockdowns are going to hurt economically but doing nothing in the short term could be economically fatal on a much bigger scale.

One situation can be recovered from with less loss of life, the other however......

 

no good at gifs but Brad Pitt in the Big Short applies here.

[Beau Vine 54211]

44 minutes ago, Jersey Man10 said:

Not to be an insensitive bastard but I'm glad I don't have kids yet. I don't think I could handle that right now.

We're also glad you don't have kids.

[UDontKnow 10444]

2 minutes ago, clapclapclap said:

Toto ain't cool any more.

 

[Hmmm 155]

7 minutes ago, Hmmm said:

how tf you get kicked out of the Castle.  different times I guess.  RAs were moderate in my times and social life was great being in a co-ed dorm that shared floors.

CTJ is the primary force in driving dictionary websites.  I suspect he has a rotating calendar of new words to use to incorporate in his vernacular.  he might be the last dude i'd try to argue with because of his rotating rhetoric.

[dcar00 14181]

2 minutes ago, UDontKnow said:

You telling me that people in Africa don't eat exotic game or whatever the proper term for these animals found in wet markets? Central Africa has one of the largest wet markets in the world. I'm sure you've heard the theory of HIV being a zoonotic illness which was transferred from non-human primates to us.

oh yeah pics or it didn't happen.

[Brisketexan 105095]

My daughter bought her graduation gear today.  They told her, "In the event of graduation being cancelled, you'll get a refund."
That really set her off and she rarely cries.  

That sucks, man. There’s no good time for this to happen. And no loss is trivial to the person experiencing it. I’m sorry.

[Pato del Muerto 52489]

43 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

My wife marries couples for a living. She has several April and May weddings on the books. Already canceling and rescheduling many. Some are more upset than others...and a couple are trying to soldier on - “it’s a small wedding!”

I’ll do you one better. My stepbrother’s father in law killed himself on Saturday.  The family obviously wants to have a funeral, with people.  Yeah you could technically postpone the celebration of life/Memorial part, but you have to bury him right away and that would be even worse if you had to do it without friends and extended family around. The grief doesn’t postpone either. 

[UDontKnow 10444]

2 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

oh yeah pics or it didn't happen.

https://face2faceafrica.com/article/eating-bushmeat-ebola

 

[dcar00 14181]

2 minutes ago, UDontKnow said:

https://face2faceafrica.com/article/eating-bushmeat-ebola

 

well at least chinese and africans don't fly to san francisco

[Bama Chick 28596]

My daughter bought her graduation gear today.  They told her, "In the event of graduation being cancelled, you'll get a refund."
That really set her off and she rarely cries.  

It’s tough to watch.

I told her one silver lining is friends and family might feel sorry for them and bump up the graduation gift/cash.

I feel stressed because I don’t know if I should keep planning the festivities surrounding graduation and for family to come or not.

Don’t want to do all that and spend extra money we might need to save in case this situation lingers but don’t want to be unprepared if they decide to go on with graduation at the last minute.

Have to keep reminding myself “One day at a time and I can only control what I can control”, but I’m a planner so it goes against my nature.

[closetojumping 62604]

Looking at Australia right now is actually interesting. They’re testing a treatment/cure in the next few weeks across 50 hospitals. They did it early on with the first few patients and it worked. It involves a mix of HIV drug(s) and chloroquine (sic). I hadn’t seen anything like that anywhere so far. I lost the link and I’m not going back down the rabbit hole, but Newsweek was covering it. 

Separately, they were one of the first places to get it beyond the far east, naturally. They aren’t testing everyone but they have 440 confirmed cases and 5 deaths. They’re coming out of their summer and those numbers will inevitably shoot up if there really is a temperature correlation. They seem scared in the coverage largely because a) everyone else is and b) their cold season is about to shift into high-ish gear. 

[Anastasis 23469]

Saw that article as well. If we can get a battery of treatmentS that have already been approved for other indications it could be a godsend until a vax can get pushed out. 

[Pancho 44757]

15 minutes ago, Beau Vine said:

My daughter bought her graduation gear today.  They told her, "In the event of graduation being cancelled, you'll get a refund."

That really set her off and she rarely cries.  

Welp my parents were dead set on attending my doctoral graduation. Tried to tell them that it wasn’t a big deal to me since I saw this coming. They got mad and booked shit anyway. I don’t have he heart (yet) to tell them that graduation is most likely a no go 

[dcar00 14181]

5 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

Looking at Australia right now is actually interesting. They’re testing a treatment/cure in the next few weeks across 50 hospitals. They did it early on with the first few patients and it worked. It involves a mix of HIV drug(s) and chloroquine (sic). I hadn’t seen anything like that anywhere so far. I lost the link and I’m not going back down the rabbit hole, but Newsweek was covering it. 

Separately, they were one of the first places to get it beyond the far east, naturally. They aren’t testing everyone but they have 440 confirmed cases and 5 deaths. They’re coming out of their summer and those numbers will inevitably shoot up if there really is a temperature correlation. They seem scared in the coverage largely because a) everyone else is and b) their cold season is about to shift into high-ish gear. 

if they can control the olds/compromised they have a shot. how heavy are those HIV drugs?

[closetojumping 62604]

15 minutes ago, Helobious said:

The economy will recover just fine. 

This is a pretty flippant statement and it isn’t grounded in reality. The economic hit the world is about to take, should the shutdown last 2 months or more, will dwarf what we’ve seen in the last two cycles, which is saying something. If people can’t spend money moving around and doing things, the economic pie flat out shrinks. Hell, sports alone is like the 5th or 6th largest segment of the economy. At some point, watching that “supply chain” collapse is going to be something to morbidly behold. Same for tv and movies. Huge visible examples to test how much of “recover just fine” is actually in the bottle, waiting to be wished out. 

 

[closetojumping 62604]

4 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

if they can control the olds/compromised they have a shot. how heavy are those HIV drugs?

No clue. I’m a complete layman when it comes to medicine. 

[dcar00 14181]

5 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

This is a pretty flippant statement and it isn’t grounded in reality. The economic hit the world is about to take, should the shutdown last 2 months or more, will dwarf what we’ve seen in the last two cycles, which is saying something. If people can’t spend money moving around and doing things, the economic pie flat out shrinks. Hell, sports alone is like the 5th or 6th largest segment of the economy. At some point, watching that “supply chain” collapse is going to be something to morbidly behold. Same for tv and movies. Huge visible examples to test how much of “recover just fine” is actually in the bottle, waiting to be wished out. 

 

it'll take a year plus, if things go right from here. I think 10-15% of the drop was always in the cards at some point in the next 2 years but this doubled that.   oil price is a concern short term.

[LonghornSean 3994]

5 hours ago, Anastasis said:

can someone repost that side by side of US and italy numbers? Or any similar time series data?

 

https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/comments/fjqroc/oc_updated_comparison_of_italy_usa_california_and/

 

Edited March 17, 2020 by LonghornSean

[closetojumping 62604]

3 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

it'll take a year plus, if things go right from here. I think 10-15% of the drop was always in the cards at some point in the next 2 years but this doubled that.   oil price is a concern short term.

I guess my concern is that we really don’t have any solid data on what a bottom or recovery look like if entire swaths of the economy are wiped off the face of the planet between now and said bottom. That’s harder to forecast. 

That all said, I saw tonight that the Kemah Boardwalk and Galveston Pleasure Pier are both still wide fucking open. No matter what happens in hospitality, I assume Tillman Fertitta and his abomination of an organization will both outlive us all and thrive as they do it. 

[Foosters 17850]

33 minutes ago, UDontKnow said:

https://face2faceafrica.com/article/eating-bushmeat-ebola

 

Looks more like a dry market

[akhornfan 4]

@Hagbard Celine

Limit up

it hit a limit up circuit breaker in early trading. 

[dcar00 14181]

3 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

I guess my concern is that we really don’t have any solid data on what a bottom or recovery look like if entire swaths of the economy are wiped off the face of the planet between now and said bottom. That’s harder to forecast. 

That all said, I saw tonight that the Kemah Boardwalk and Galveston Pleasure Pier are both still wide fucking open. No matter what happens in hospitality, I assume Tillman Fertitta and his abomination of an organization will both outlive us all and thrive as they do it. 

well of course...cockroaches survive everything.

[akhornfan 4]

7 minutes ago, LonghornSean said:

 

https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/comments/fjqroc/oc_updated_comparison_of_italy_usa_california_and/

 

GTFO with case counts. Apples and oranges. 

[Captainant 27654]

2 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

I guess my concern is that we really don’t have any solid data on what a bottom or recovery look like if entire swaths of the economy are wiped off the face of the planet between now and said bottom. That’s harder to forecast. 

The same, but with human lives instead of """the economy""". Ultimately, addressing the health crisis will enable fixing the economic crisis. 

You can't bail out a graveyard. 

[dcar00 14181]

a lot of this is emotional plus oil.  annoucing a vaccine would help greatly even if it is 6 more months to getting millions of them.  of course all bets are off we we start seeing 100's of deaths a day.

[akhornfan 4]

5 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

a lot of this is emotional plus oil.  annoucing a vaccine would help greatly even if it is 6 more months to getting millions of them.  of course all bets are off we we start seeing 100's of deaths a day.

Oil is not the global issue. 

[staboner 4969]

37 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

This is a pretty flippant statement and it isn’t grounded in reality. The economic hit the world is about to take, should the shutdown last 2 months or more, will dwarf what we’ve seen in the last two cycles, which is saying something. If people can’t spend money moving around and doing things, the economic pie flat out shrinks. Hell, sports alone is like the 5th or 6th largest segment of the economy. At some point, watching that “supply chain” collapse is going to be something to morbidly behold. Same for tv and movies. Huge visible examples to test how much of “recover just fine” is actually in the bottle, waiting to be wished out. 

 

responding to this and aussie comments

Hopefully, we down here in Oz can lead in some regards. ScoMo (the PM) is a bit of a stiff twat, but the government in general is flexible and I think starting to really understand the significance of this. Oz is also one of the few places on earth with an actual winter coming up. It gets damn wintry here in Melbourne and somewhat up to Sydney. and Brisbane, but not too much. Outside of that its maybe Johannesburg and Buenos Aires for major cities far south enough to see radical temp change? Not many really. 

Some of us here are starting to think the only way out of this economically is some kind of universal basic income, maybe month to month. You can't let the structure of the economy and society collapse. If this goes on for >1 month I suspect some of the damage may be hard to overcome. "Restarting" things may not work out the way you or I or anyone is hoping. Chains are broken, people lose jobs, everything just grinds to a halt. They are trying some element of small business relief, but I just think injecting money somewhere is simply covering losses for just some of the people. The system still collapses. I hate the idea of UBI but if we need it for say 3 months, at $3k a head, then I believe that may be the best route. It keeps companies and employees in tact, it allows create people to solve problems that are arising, etc. A slow death with various parts of your society slowly collapsing - financially, emotionally, safety, shit everything - is just not going to work, and not something you can just turn back the fuck on.

Totally agree with your accents there in the quote above. This is catastrophic and acute, therefore the governments need to also be acute and decisive. 

Edited March 17, 2020 by staboner

[closetojumping 62604]

11 minutes ago, Captainant said:

The same, but with human lives instead of """the economy""". Ultimately, addressing the health crisis will enable fixing the economic crisis. 

You can't bail out a graveyard. 

Strong virtue signaling game, bro. Nonetheless, no one is being flippant about human lives. Worrying about the economy and thinking about where it could be headed can be done completely independent of that. 

Also, no one mentioned a bailout. 

[MaybeACoordinator 8349]

24 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

I guess my concern is that we really don’t have any solid data on what a bottom or recovery look like if entire swaths of the economy are wiped off the face of the planet between now and said bottom. That’s harder to forecast. 

That all said, I saw tonight that the Kemah Boardwalk and Galveston Pleasure Pier are both still wide fucking open. No matter what happens in hospitality, I assume Tillman Fertitta and his abomination of an organization will both outlive us all and thrive as they do it. 

Actually if this thing is prolonged out a few months Tilman might be totally fucked. Casinos, shitty restaurants, sports, cruises -- these are not going to thrive anytime soon. 

[Bama Chick 28596]

The UK says “Whoops! Math didn’t check out!”.

[dcar00 14181]

1 minute ago, MaybeACoordinator said:

Actually if this thing is prolonged out a few months Tilman might be totally fucked. Casinos, shitty restaurants, sports, cruises -- these are not going to thrive anytime soon. 

hes a cockroach but he employs people.   I hope those places stay open.

[C-Man 27214]

5 minutes ago, Bama Chick said:

The UK says “Whoops! Math didn’t check out!”.

 

[akhornfan 4]

6 minutes ago, Bama Chick said:

The UK says “Whoops! Math didn’t check out!”.

 

Please stop 

[Pancho 44757]

 

[Lobwedgephil 1139]

Well West Virginia is winning so far. Zero reported cases. Although that means nothing. 

[NWBuck 8552]

42 minutes ago, Lobwedgephil said:

Well West Virginia is winning so far. Zero reported cases. Although that means nothing. 

Maybe that missing chromosome is the key. 

[Onboard 2.0 9083]

2 hours ago, dcar00 said:

you ever see Chinese in Africa?  there you go.

Yeah, they're buying it as fast as they can, and raping their natural resources.  I don't know the numbers, but a Chinese presence in Africa is definitely a thing.

[Hank_Hill 18803]

Look in to Akons city, clearly that isn't funded by convict music.