Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

[Huckleberry 32851]

39 minutes ago, Liquor and Poker said:

Explain to me the significance of this.  I get that we're on or slightly ahead of the same track about 10 days apart, but we have a higher population by roughly 5x.  So we're at a 20% level from a relative population standpoint.  If, at the end of the day we end up with the same absolute number of infections as Italy that would be effectively an 80% more effective quarantine.

So shouldn't we expect our numbers to start to far outstrip Italy if we're on the same curve?

Yes and no.

The effect of total population doesn't change anything until you get closer to the total population. Let's lower the numbers so it's easier to consider. Let's say you have two high schools, one is Allen with 5,000 students. The other is Lampasas High School with 1,000 students. Let's say they both get it on the same day and students of each school are all trapped together, and that the spread of an infectious disease is based on e^(day/3).

Day 0: Lampasas - 1, Allen - 1

Day 1: Lampasas - 1, Allen - 1

Day 2: Lampasas - 2, Allen - 2

Day 3: Lampasas - 3, Allen - 3

Day 4: Lampasas - 4, Allen - 4

Day 5: Lampasas - 5, Allen - 5

Day 6: Lampasas - 7, Allen - 7

Day 7: Lampasas - 10, Allen - 10

Day 8: Lampasas - 14, Allen - 14

Day 9: Lampasas - 20, Allen - 20

Day 10: Lampasas - 28, Allen - 28

Day 11: Lampasas - 39, Allen - 39

Day 12: Lampasas - 55, Allen - 55

Day 13: Lampasas - 76, Allen - 76

Day 14: Lampasas - 106, Allen - 106

Day 15: Lampasas - 148, Allen - 148

Day 16: Lampasas - 207, Allen - 207

Day 17: Lampasas - 289, Allen - 289

Day 18: Lampasas - 403, Allen - 403

Day 19: Lampasas - 563, Allen - 563

Day 20: Lampasas - 786, Allen - 786

Day 21: Lampasas - 1000, Allen - 1097

Day 22: Lampasas - 1000, Allen - 1530

Day 23: Lampasas - 1000, Allen - 2136

Day 24: Lampasas - 1000, Allen - 2981

Day 25: Lampasas - 1000, Allen - 4160

Day 26: Lampasas - 1000, Allen - 5000

Now in reality there are a whole lot more factors than just population size. Population density, distance between population centers (matters more if we limit travel), etc. But the raw numbers of an exponential spread don't give a shit about total population until it infects the total population.

Edited March 17, 2020 by Huckleberry

[dcar00 14181]

6 minutes ago, NoName said:

you mean when they took the existing flu vaccine, basically grew the ingredients and then rolled out a new/different version specifically for H1N1/09?

that wasn't created from scratch.

there is no existing coronavirus vaccine they can essentially take, update and roll out.

edit: that timeline was (link: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/2009-pandemic-timeline.html)

• April 1 - CDC starts working to develop a candidate vaccine virus
• July 22 - clinical trials begin
• September 15 - FDA announces approval of 4 H1N1 vaccines
• September 30 - First orders placed
• October 5 - First doses of H1N1 vaccine given
• December - trial results published showing it  immunity response to it was excellent

again, COVID-19 is drastically different than taking an existing process, growing the seed stock, developing the vaccine and rolling it out.

fair enough. we got lucky. have we started clinical trials yet?  what is the timeline?

[Onboard 2.0 9083]

14 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

I need to use the winky face more often.

Yeah, saw your response further down the thread, after my post.

[jinx 2635]

10 hours ago, Beau Vine said:

Why have we heard so little about Africa?

Because the rains were blessed there.  We should have considered that decades ago.

[TXSG8R 3362]

23 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

have you seen the CDC timeline on Swine flu vaccine.  It was done in 6 months.  I'm not saying they didn't get lucky but christ it happened just 10 years ago.

The swine flu was already on the books so to speak, so creating the vaccine was a much faster process.  They used seed stock from the CDC to ramp up.  

Quote

Pandemic swine flu is a type A, H1N1 flu virus. For decades, a type A H1N1 vaccine has been part of the regular seasonal flu vaccine, and the new vaccine is made exactly the same way.

Fast-tracking the vaccine will mean guessing at the best dose, but that's an educated guess based on the well-established dosage for the seasonal H1N1 vaccine.

I dont think that really correlates to a novel virus where they are starting from scratch.  Also, a good lesson for not rushing.

Quote

History teaches us, however, that it won't be easy. The last time the U.S. recommended nationwide vaccination against a suspected swine flu was in 1976, with less than successful results, to say the least. Under orders from President Gerald Ford, a vaccine was rushed into production and administered to 45 million Americans, at a cost of $135 million. But within weeks, people started developing Guillain-Barré syndrome, a paralyzing immune-system disorder that can result from the vaccine. Some experts estimated the risk of Guillain-Barré as being seven times higher in those who were immunized vs. those who were not. After the immunization program was terminated nine months after it began, government officials paid $90 million in damages to patients who were injured by the vaccine. The widely feared swine flu epidemic never emerged. (Read "5 Things You Need to Know About the Swine Flu Outbreak.")

  http://content.time.com/time/health/article/0,8599,1894625,00.html

Edit: NoName beat me to it.  

Edited March 17, 2020 by TXSG8R

[GreenspointTexas 9600]

1 minute ago, dcar00 said:

fair enough. we got lucky. have we started clinical trials yet?  what is the timeline?

We skipped the mice and injected a human yesterday

[Fudge Nuggets 19190]

13 minutes ago, Loco said:

yeah but can you play Moon Lander on it?

https://www.hpmuseum.org/software/25moonld.htm

 

I used to play that on my dad's old HP when I was a kid

Hell yeah you can.  I even used it as my TV remote control back in the day for ultimate nerd status.

[Bevo 13576]

13 minutes ago, NoName said:

you mean when they took the existing flu vaccine, basically grew the ingredients and then rolled out a new/different version specifically for H1N1/09?

that wasn't created from scratch.

there is no existing coronavirus vaccine they can essentially take, update and roll out.

edit: that timeline was (link: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/2009-pandemic-timeline.html)

• April 1 - CDC starts working to develop a candidate vaccine virus
• July 22 - clinical trials begin
• September 15 - FDA announces approval of 4 H1N1 vaccines
• September 30 - First orders placed
• October 5 - First doses of H1N1 vaccine given
• December - trial results published showing it  immunity response to it was excellent

again, COVID-19 is drastically different than taking an existing process, growing the seed stock, developing the vaccine and rolling it out.

Maybe the vaccine in Israel but I don't know any details about it.

[dcar00 14181]

1 minute ago, TXSG8R said:

The swine flu was already on the books so to speak, so creating the vaccine was a much faster process.  They used seed stock from the CDC to ramp up.  

I dont think that really correlates to a novel virus where they are starting from scratch.  Also, a good lesson for not rushing.

  http://content.time.com/time/health/article/0,8599,1894625,00.html

good info and very interesting.  too young to have remembered that.  Also, on swine flu I think I waited until it was integrated into the regular flu shot.

[bolverk 29660]

Exclusive: Amazon stops receiving non-essential products from sellers amid coronavirus outbreak

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Amazon.com Inc is suspending sellers from sending non-essential products to its U.S. and U.K. warehouses until April 5 in the latest move to free up inventory space for much-needed supplies that are in shortage as a result of the coronavirus outbreak.

In a note sent to sellers on Tuesday, Amazon said it is seeing increasing online shopping demand from consumers. As its household staples and medical supplies are running out of stock, it will prioritize certain categories in order to “quickly receive, restock, and ship these products to customers.”

Amazon defined five categories as essential products that can continue shipping, including Baby Product, Health & Household, Beauty & Personal Care, Grocery, Industrial & Scientific, Pet Supplies.

More:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-amazon-com-exclusi/exclusive-amazon-stops-receiving-non-essential-products-from-sellers-amid-coronavirus-outbreak-idUSKBN2142IM

[Dahobbs 17534]

30 minutes ago, akhornfan said:

Italy vs US Testing

at the same points lined up on the chart US is testing ahead of Italy

I've been staring at this chart and I really don't see what you're seeing. How are you reaching that conclusion? Or are you just talking about the very early period in January and February where tests were trickling out of the US and the Italy chart just says "testing data not available before February 25"? If the latter, that doesn't seem like a very useful metric. We just don't have data for Italy's early testing. But, comparing ~Feb 28 to Feb 28 we see Italy did more testing on an absolute and per capita basis by a significant margin. Or, going back to our chart of confirmed cases, comparing Feb 28 in Italy to Mar 10 in the US, we also see more testing by Italy on an absolute and per capita basis. Let me know if I'm missing something. 

[Loco 3752]

1 minute ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

Hell yeah you can.  I even used it as my TV remote control back in the day for ultimate nerd status.

The ultimate panty dropper!

 

Meanwhile C19 made it into at least 1 assisted living facility in Broward.

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article241262401.html

Quote

A 77-year-old man who was living at an assisted living facility in Broward County has died of COVID-19, the disease caused by the novel coronavirus, Gov. Ron DeSantis announced at a news conference in Tallahassee Tuesday morning.

 

[Post Oak 20210]

I personally know that Mclennan County has one case though I haven't seen it reported yet.

[Pato del Muerto 52489]

1 hour ago, yoladu said:

Scary.. it continues to hold true...

Italy on 3/6 - 4,636

USA on 3/17 - 4,748

I’m  little perplexed at how 2 data sets that I don’t believe are accurate can continue to mirror each other.  

[Pato del Muerto 52489]

1 hour ago, ChickenSandwich said:

 

Italy .00007727% > USA .00001357%

The spread doesn’t care about total population until it begins to be constrained by it. 

[Thetexashammer 1062]

3 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

I’m  little perplexed at how 2 data sets that I don’t believe are accurate can continue to mirror each other.  

[Jiggy-Z 3432]

I think an interesting discussion to be had at this point is the case of the Diamond Princess.

China's numbers cannot be entirely trusted, testing and treatment lags in hot spots, and there is still a delay factor to be dealt with on a large scale.

However with the DP, we have almost 100% testing of a what amounts to a control group  with known cases and deaths with a number of still unresolved cases to possibly affect the death rate etc.

The data I have is from wiki and Worldometer, with critical aspects missing such as age distribution of passengers and there are some small discrepancies in site data.

Big picture is a death rate of ~1% among those infected with only 19%  of the population being infected.  Note ~150 crew were infected so not all Olds and sick.  There remain 15 critical cases and 233 unresolved cases. 

Initial containment seemed pretty crappy and I ma not so sure a ship quarantine with recirculating air was  such a good idea either.  On the one hand seems like it would be a vulnerable population, but on the other hand seems like you could get good control over movement and wouldn't have a rush on ICU since critical patients were able to be transported to better facilities.

Does anybody have and demographics they can fond so we can find so we can math this a little better?

Some numbers:

As of March 15 in 2020, the total number of confirmed cases with coronavirus disease (COVID-19) on the cruise ship Diamond Princess reached 712 patients, including 567 passengers and 145 crews. The number of conducted tests and patients declined on March 6 because the source changed the way of calculation and fixed the figures that were overlapping.
Diamond Princess was docked in Yokohama, Kanagawa Prefecture in Japan, and the government conducted examinations and treatments on the passengers and crews. By March 1, all the passengers and crews got off the ship.

 

 

Diamond Princess

696

0

7

0

456

233

15

 

Confirmed cases on Diamond Princess 

Date (JST)	Tested (cumulative)	Confirmed (cumulative)	Notes and ref(s)
3 February			Berthed at the Port of Yokohama
5 February	31	10	[31]
6 February	102	20	Calculated from reports[31][32]
7 February	273	61	[32]
8 February	279	64	[33]
9 February	336	70	[34]
10 February	439	135	[35]
12 February	492	174	Calculated from reports[35][36]
13 February	713	218	[36]
15 February	930	285	Includes 73 asymptomatic cases[37]
16 February	1,219	355	Includes 111 asymptomatic cases[38]
17 February	1,723	454	Includes 189 asymptomatic cases[39]
18 February	2,404	542	Includes 254 asymptomatic cases[40]
19 February	3,011	621	Includes 322 asymptomatic cases[41]
20 February	3,063	634	Includes 328 asymptomatic cases[42]
26 February	4,061	705	Includes 392 asymptomatic cases[43]
5 March	3,618*1	696*2	Includes 410 asymptomatic cases[44]
*1: Actual number of individuals tested. *2: Excluding cases found after disembarkation

[Js1 85311]

9 minutes ago, bolverk said:

Exclusive: Amazon stops receiving non-essential products from sellers amid coronavirus outbreak

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Amazon.com Inc is suspending sellers from sending non-essential products to its U.S. and U.K. warehouses until April 5 in the latest move to free up inventory space for much-needed supplies that are in shortage as a result of the coronavirus outbreak.

In a note sent to sellers on Tuesday, Amazon said it is seeing increasing online shopping demand from consumers. As its household staples and medical supplies are running out of stock, it will prioritize certain categories in order to “quickly receive, restock, and ship these products to customers.”

Amazon defined five categories as essential products that can continue shipping, including Baby Product, Health & Household, Beauty & Personal Care, Grocery, Industrial & Scientific, Pet Supplies.

More:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-amazon-com-exclusi/exclusive-amazon-stops-receiving-non-essential-products-from-sellers-amid-coronavirus-outbreak-idUSKBN2142IM

Yeah I noticed this morning. I wanted to order a new wireless keyboards and mouse for home so I don’t have to bring my work one back and forth. It’s Tuesday. Prime delivery: Saturday 

[Wally Fairway 5543]

4 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

I’m  little perplexed at how 2 data sets that I don’t believe are accurate can continue to mirror each other.  

maybe because they are equally inaccurate, for basically the same reasons

Edited March 17, 2020 by Wally Fairway

[dcar00 14181]

13 minutes ago, GreenspointTexas said:

We skipped the mice and injected a human yesterday

hopefully it was Tom Cruise.

[TXSG8R 3362]

1 minute ago, Pato del Muerto said:

I’m  little perplexed at how 2 data sets that I don’t believe are accurate can continue to mirror each other.  

They are both under reporting, but for similar reasons.  Italy and the US went with the "test only if they meet specific critera" route so even though we know there are more cases out there, they are showing a similar track for symptomatic cases.  

[NoName 16351]

15 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

fair enough. we got lucky. have we started clinical trials yet?  what is the timeline?

First injections were yesterday or Sunday

There is literally no timeline. Having this thing done from scratch in 12 months would be superhuman...

[Loco 3752]

7 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

I've been staring at this chart and I really don't see what you're seeing. How are you reaching that conclusion? Or are you just talking about the very early period in January and February where tests were trickling out of the US and the Italy chart just says "testing data not available before February 25"? If the latter, that doesn't seem like a very useful metric. We just don't have data for Italy's early testing. But, comparing ~Feb 28 to Feb 28 we see Italy did more testing on an absolute and per capita basis by a significant margin. Or, going back to our chart of confirmed cases, comparing Feb 28 in Italy to Mar 10 in the US, we also see more testing by Italy on an absolute and per capita basis. Let me know if I'm missing something. 

Don't respond or quote the troll.  Someone has a sock and is just here to rustle some jimmies.  It's not even original...  just outlandish stupidity.

[jeevsie 3733]

Sweatergawd, if this thread hits 1000 pages before a recruiting thread....

[South Austin 52463]

34 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Per my contact at the county attorney's office, restaurants will be shut down for dine-in  (takeout and delivery still available), and gatherings of more than 10 people will be banned, effective at noon today.

Heard the same thing earlier this morning.  My source also only mentioned restaurants, but not gyms and health clubs, though I'm assuming they'll be included.

[JBJ 3654]

1 minute ago, crimsonlonghorn said:

I understand that there are confidence intervals and the change might not be significant and all, but on its face it looks like this is positive news?

Growth rate is starting to decline and short term declining more than longer says that quarantine (for lack of a better word) is starting to work? 

The delta between the 5-day trend and the 10-day trend I think is the metric to pay closest attention to.  It's something right now but not much. 

The last 2 days are 2 of the 4 best days this month - that might show up soon as a trend or it could disappear.

There's not a lot of noise in this data set (R2=0.95 overall and 0.999(!) since March 1), but it's also not pristine.  If I could I would date cases to first symptom or known contact, but that information lags about a week and is back-dated about another week, so it puts me way behind the times. 

It's so unnoisy that I'm skeptical the numbers are not actual positive reports.  They look modeled with a degree of variablilty added just to look real.  But maybe pandemics are actually just this predictable. /noconspiracy

[UDontKnow 10444]

6 minutes ago, South Austin said:

Heard the same thing earlier this morning.  My source also only mentioned restaurants, but not gyms and health clubs, though I'm assuming they'll be included.

Good thing that attorneys are professionals at eating take out and working from home. 

[Captainant 27654]

43 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

have you seen the CDC timeline on Swine flu vaccine.  It was done in 6 months.  I'm not saying they didn't get lucky but christ it happened just 10 years ago.

The pandemic response team we had in place within the CDC was disbanded in 2018 because "we never use them, and we can hire them back when we need them". Our capacity and ability to respond to pandemic-level infection has quantitatively decreased since swine flu.

[Coelenterate Fuccboi 13091]

I hear aggy is petitioning the CDC to raise the gathering recommendation to 12 people so they can have a huge party in their stadium. With eleven sheep, of course.

[akhornfan 4]

19 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

I've been staring at this chart and I really don't see what you're seeing. How are you reaching that conclusion? Or are you just talking about the very early period in January and February where tests were trickling out of the US and the Italy chart just says "testing data not available before February 25"? If the latter, that doesn't seem like a very useful metric. We just don't have data for Italy's early testing. But, comparing ~Feb 28 to Feb 28 we see Italy did more testing on an absolute and per capita basis by a significant margin. Or, going back to our chart of confirmed cases, comparing Feb 28 in Italy to Mar 10 in the US, we also see more testing by Italy on an absolute and per capita basis. Let me know if I'm missing something. 
 

look at the first chart. Our 3/11 is larger than their 3/6. And you know out 3/16 is greater than our 3/11 so we’re ahead of their testing at the dates that keep getting lined up in the charts

[Pato del Muerto 52489]

4 minutes ago, JBJ said:

The delta between the 5-day trend and the 10-day trend I think is the metric to pay closest attention to.  It's something right now but not much. 

The last 2 days are 2 of the 4 best days this month - that might show up soon as a trend or it could disappear.

There's not a lot of noise in this data set (R2=0.95 overall and 0.999(!) since March 1), but it's also not pristine.  If I could I would date cases to first symptom or known contact, but that information lags about a week and is back-dated about another week, so it puts me way behind the times. 

It's so unnoisy that I'm skeptical the numbers are not actual positive reports.  They look modeled with a degree of variablilty added just to look real.  But maybe pandemics are actually just this predictable. /noconspiracy

Same thing was being said of the Chinese numbers. Too consistent. 

[jinx 2635]

10 hours ago, closetojumping said:

This is a pretty flippant statement and it isn’t grounded in reality. The economic hit the world is about to take, should the shutdown last 2 months or more, will dwarf what we’ve seen in the last two cycles, which is saying something. If people can’t spend money moving around and doing things, the economic pie flat out shrinks. Hell, sports alone is like the 5th or 6th largest segment of the economy. At some point, watching that “supply chain” collapse is going to be something to morbidly behold. Same for tv and movies. Huge visible examples to test how much of “recover just fine” is actually in the bottle, waiting to be wished out. 

 

This is my fear dude.  And it is much more certain than the COVID -19 outcome.

[JBJ 3654]

 

16 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

I’m  little perplexed at how 2 data sets that I don’t believe are accurate can continue to mirror each other.  

 

4 minutes ago, JBJ said:

There's not a lot of noise in this data set ....R2= 0.999(!) since March 1 ... but it is.also not pristine....

It's so unnoisy that I'm skeptical the numbers are not actual positive reports.  They look modeled with a degree of variablilty added just to look real.  But maybe pandemics are actually just this predictable. /noconspiracy

See above.  I'm starting to believe journos or medical authorirites are giving estimates and not actuals.

[Pato del Muerto 52489]

13 minutes ago, Wally Fairway said:

maybe because they are equally inaccurate, for basically the same reasons

 

12 minutes ago, TXSG8R said:

They are both under reporting, but for similar reasons.  Italy and the US went with the "test only if they meet specific critera" route so even though we know there are more cases out there, they are showing a similar track for symptomatic cases.  

That would mean that the US and Italy have similar initial infection starting points (1 infection, or 2, or whatever jumping off points for the virus), similar testing requirements, and similar testing capabilities at least for the first 2 weeks of positive tests.  It just feels unlikely. 

[Harrison Stafford 3335]

Casinos asking for a bailout.  That's rich 

Edited March 17, 2020 by Harrison Stafford

[Huckleberry 32851]

10 minutes ago, akhornfan said:

look at the first chart. Our 3/11 is larger than their 3/6. And you know out 3/16 is greater than our 3/11 so we’re ahead of their testing at the dates that keep getting lined up in the charts

Huh? The chart lines up the US 11 days after Italy, not 5. I'm looking at the same chart and it does not look like even with an 11-day instead of 5-day difference that we are ahead in testing.

Here they are offset by 11 days.

We are not way ahead or even ahead of them if you line up the dates from the other chart.

Here's an attempt to show the 2,000 line on the Italy chart to make it easier to compare:

Edited March 17, 2020 by Huckleberry

[Pato del Muerto 52489]

https://hellocaremail.com.au/woolworths-launches-elderly-shopping-hour-ensure-seniors-get-supplies/?fbclid=IwAR1l2i73JgPLSaS4SNDLnjSHlGgCYPCSbXc5EQ9kYOXS_f5XCF_1z61oCTU
 

[JBJ 3654]

10 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

That would mean that the US and Italy have similar initial infection starting points (1 infection, or 2, or whatever jumping off points for the virus), similar testing requirements, and similar testing capabilities at least for the first 2 weeks of positive tests.  It just feels unlikely. 

Critical mass seems to start around 100 cases for every country that I've looked at.  When you cross that threshold is a better indicator than when the first case was.  Testing methods don't appear to matter at all (which I agree makes 0 sense).

Edited March 17, 2020 by JBJ

[heso 2791]

25 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

I’m  little perplexed at how 2 data sets that I don’t believe are accurate can continue to mirror each other.  

Because you’re not seeing the actual spread of the virus in those numbers. You’re seeing testing being scaled up and people developing severe symptoms pushing them to hospitals and then being confirmed as positive. 

You know the virus is spreading. You don’t believe the total numbers reported are reflective of actual spread. You can still see the spread of the virus by looking at the numbers being reported and understanding that those numbers are a small subset of total infections. 

[Loco 3752]

5 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

https://hellocaremail.com.au/woolworths-launches-elderly-shopping-hour-ensure-seniors-get-supplies/?fbclid=IwAR1l2i73JgPLSaS4SNDLnjSHlGgCYPCSbXc5EQ9kYOXS_f5XCF_1z61oCTU
 

I feel like they ought to give them 15% off

[Dahobbs 17534]

8 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

 

That would mean that the US and Italy have similar initial infection starting points (1 infection, or 2, or whatever jumping off points for the virus), similar testing requirements, and similar testing capabilities at least for the first 2 weeks of positive tests.  It just feels unlikely. 

You're just seeing a trend line, the raw number comparison is meaningless. The chart demonstrates that the growth curve of both Italy and US confirmed cases (by their own separate criteria of when to test and what counts as confirmed) is the same (exponential). 

[Trey3216 15346]

30 minutes ago, Post Oak said:

I personally know that Mclennan County has one case though I haven't seen it reported yet.

Yep.  From what I hear, it's a fairly prominent local bank executive.  I also personally know at least 20 people that just got back from the Colorado ski areas that are suggesting 14 day self quarantines for those returning from those areas.  They are pretty influential people around town.  Local business community could get interesting pretty quick.   

[Walden Ponderer 12639]

The important question to me is why don't we have a catchy marketing nickname and logo for this thing yet? I submit "The Snaky Sneezies" and their mascot:

[Dahobbs 17534]

9 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

Huh? The chart lines up the US 11 days after Italy, not 5. I'm looking at the same chart and it does not look like even with an 11-day instead of 5-day difference that we are ahead in testing.

Here they are offset by 11 days.

We are not way ahead or even ahead of them if you line up the dates from the other chart.

Here's an attempt to show the 2,000 line on the Italy chart to make it easier to compare:

Yeah, and again, the most relevant metric would be per capita, not absolute number of tests. By that metric, we were and are very far behind. 

[Captainant 27654]

1 minute ago, JBJ said:

Critical mass seems to start around 100 cases for every country that I've looked at.  When you cross that threshold is a better indicator than when the first case was.  Testing methods don't appear to matter at all.

I think it's more that 100 cases is when the signal is noticeable enough to draw a trend from. Exponential growth patterns mean that you double the number of cases every so often. Considering the US confirmed cases, that's been every roughly 3 to 4 days. So a couple of weeks ago, those countries would only have 5-10 cases. By the time the numbers are moving fast and getting large enough to get people to actually take it seriously, it's too widespread to effectively contain it. At that point, you have to bunker down and hope you can flatten the curve, or at least make it closer to linear growth

[Loco 3752]

Just a thought...   I see that we have failed at testing and some are saying that we are at the point that tests don't matter.

If test were widely available

patients tested and confirmed for C-19 could self quarantine for  x number of days and have a test to confirm recovery...  Those patients could then return to work / restaurants etc.

I would think this would have blunted some of the coming economic impact.  Currently you may suspect you've had C-19 but you'll never know and therefore act accordingly (social distancing etc..)

[akhornfan 4]

3 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

Yeah, and again, the most relevant metric would be per capita, not absolute number of tests. By that metric, we were and are very far behind. 

You do see that 3/12 - 3/16 is missing on counts because the CDC isn’t accumulating totals right?

[Js1 85311]

 

[Huckleberry 32851]

3 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

Yeah, and again, the most relevant metric would be per capita, not absolute number of tests. By that metric, we were and are very far behind. 

Exactly, I think we all agree that the USA vs. Italy chart is coincidental as much as anything. Our per capita testing has been much lower, our population distribution is vastly different, etc. What it is useful in showing the general public, however, is that the growth in confirmed cases is exponential in both countries. As another poster mentioned above, human beings don't instinctively understand exponential growth. Charts that help them understand the reality of how fast this thing spreads if no countermeasures are taken are a good thing.

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19 minutes ago, Captainant said:

The pandemic response team we had in place within the CDC was disbanded in 2018 because "we never use them, and we can hire them back when we need them". Our capacity and ability to respond to pandemic-level infection has quantitatively decreased since swine flu.

A risk of derailing the current thread, can you please stop trying to make this about politics please?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/03/16/no-white-house-didnt-dissolve-its-pandemic-response-office/

Spoiler

It has been alleged by multiple officials of the Obama administration, including in The Post, that the president and his then-national security adviser, John Bolton, “dissolved the office” at the White House in charge of pandemic preparedness. Because I led the very directorate assigned that mission, the counterproliferation and biodefense office, for a year and then handed it off to another official who still holds the post, I know the charge is specious.

Now, I’m not naive. This is Washington. It’s an election year. Officials out of power want back into power after November. But the middle of a worldwide health emergency is not the time to be making tendentious accusations.

When I joined the National Security Council staff in 2018, I inherited a strong and skilled staff in the counterproliferation and biodefense directorate. This team of national experts together drafted the National Biodefense Strategy of 2018 and an accompanying national security presidential memorandum to implement it; an executive order to modernize influenza vaccines; and coordinated the United States’ response to the Ebola epidemic in Congo, which was ultimately defeated in 2020.

It is true that the Trump administration has seen fit to shrink the NSC staff. But the bloat that occurred under the previous administration clearly needed a correction. Defense Secretary Robert Gates, congressional oversight committees and members of the Obama administration itself all agreed the NSC was too large and too operationally focused (a departure from its traditional role coordinating executive branch activity). As The Post reported in 2015, from the Clinton administration to the Obama administration’s second term, the NSC’s staff “had quadrupled in size, to nearly 400 people.” That is why Trump began streamlining the NSC staff in 2017.

One such move at the NSC was to create the counterproliferation and biodefense directorate, which was the result of consolidating three directorates into one, given the obvious overlap between arms control and nonproliferation, weapons of mass destruction terrorism, and global health and biodefense. It is this reorganization that critics have misconstrued or intentionally misrepresented. If anything, the combined directorate was stronger because related expertise could be commingled.

The reduction of force in the NSC has continued since I departed the White House. But it has left the biodefense staff unaffected — perhaps a recognition of the importance of that mission to the president, who, after all, in 2018 issued a presidential memorandum to finally create real accountability in the federal government’s expansive biodefense system.

The NSC is really the only place in government where there is a staff that ensures the commander in chief gets all the options he needs to make a decision, and then makes sure that decision is actually implemented. I worry that further reductions at the NSC could impair its capabilities, but the current staffing level is fully up to the job.