Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

[RollLeft 5,044]

43 minutes ago, Hmbre97 said:

My brain dead ex is leaving tomorrow with our 2 sons to go to Padre Island for 4 days. Did I mention my 4 yr old is 24 hrs removed from running a fever and has a double ear infection?

Dumb bitch.

 

 

 

You should post pics so we can further criticize.

[landman 559]

And time to release names of those infected and where they've been. That will help give people an idea if they've potentially been exposed and need to quarantine. All tools need to be made available.  

[Pato del Muerto 52,489]

2 minutes ago, landman said:

The overall death rate has fallen this week in US. It was around 3% last week and now down to 1.7% today.   Step in the right direction.  

That proves that testing is ramping up faster than deaths. And we haven’t hit the “we can’t take care of everyone” part of the death curve yet. 

[dcar00 14,181]

2 minutes ago, landman said:

The overall death rate has fallen this week in US. It was around 3% last week and now down to 1.7% today.   Step in the right direction.  

my thought is this is going to bounce around some.  thousands will die over the life of this virus.  sub 20K will be a victory, hollow, but a victory none the less.

[Longhorn Al 440]

I had a weird sickness late January.  Came on quick.  Middle of the afternoon I got a tickle in my chest. By that evening I had a dry cough and a fever with major chills.  I basically sat on the couch for about 2 and a half days.  Cough didn't worsen.  Never went to the head.  Never really produced any mucus.  No body aches.  No idea what it was.

I don't have allergies and have never had the flu, so I don't know how to compare it to those.  If I've had the flu in the past, then it was nothing like what is described by others. I've never had the muscle aches and whatnot.

As for dealing with the stockpiling morons, I bought two 40pk of water and 2 gallons of distilled water (CPAP machine) and one 12pk of toilet paper.  That will last me a long time.  I might buy some more water.  Food?  I haven't bought anything yet.  If the shit hits the fan, I can fast for 2 weeks at a time with no problem.

[RollLeft 5,044]

7 minutes ago, Stunns38 said:

Conflicted. Our first grader is obviously at home with my wife and our newborn and I’ve been taking our 3-year old to daycare because she’s a terror at home.

They sanitize and disinfect the building constantly and monitor the kids closely for fever and symptoms. They don’t let parents past the front desk either so that makes me feel a little better. But I’ve been going into the office and grocery shopping so me and the 3-year old could hypothetically infect the household. I’m hoping that the office and daycare are shutdown by the end of this week and the whole family starts quarantine.

No judgement here.  Everyone has to manage their own situation as best they can.  

[Huckleberry 32,851]

12 minutes ago, JBJ said:

Yes it was. 

Total deaths were trending 18-20% growth and today was 34%.  We nearly had twice as many deaths today as should have been expected.

He's as lost a cause as Greenspoint, man, just in the other direction. 

versus

[Pato del Muerto 52,489]

9 minutes ago, Stunns38 said:

Conflicted. Our first grader is obviously at home with my wife and our newborn and I’ve been taking our 3-year old to daycare because she’s a terror at home.

They sanitize and disinfect the building constantly and monitor the kids closely for fever and symptoms. They don’t let parents past the front desk either so that makes me feel a little better. But I’ve been going into the office and grocery shopping so me and the 3-year old could hypothetically infect the household. I’m hoping that the office and daycare are shutdown by the end of this week and the whole family starts quarantine.

Contagious while asymptomatic. Especially small kids. I wouldn’t do it if I had alternative. 

[Longhorn Al 440]

I do worry more about my 73 y/o dad, though.  Heart patient with high blood pressure.  Doesn't smoke or drink, but has always had iffy lungs.  If he ever gets sick, his cough will last a good 2+ months.  And as a kid, he was exposed to TB.  If not the heart, he's said his lungs will be his end.

[JBJ 3,654]

10 minutes ago, landman said:

The overall death rate has fallen this week in US. It was around 3% last week and now down to 1.7% today.   Step in the right direction.  

The death rate barely moved because both cases and deaths shot up.  Today was a horrible day.  I'm all for finding silverlinings, but there are none here.

Edited March 18, 2020 by JBJ

[Beau Vine 54,210]

1 hour ago, Iconoclast Texan said:

Mayor of NOLA has banned the sale of firearms. I don’t own a handgun. Seriously thinking of buying one now.

If you really do this, you need to keep your bullets in your shirt pocket, like Barney Fife.

[ztejas 43,418]

8 minutes ago, Longhorn Al said:

Food?  I haven't bought anything yet.  If the shit hits the fan, I can fast for 2 weeks at a time with no problem.

I mean, maybe you got it already and have some immunity built up, but Jesus dude, don't be ridiculous. You don't want to be 2 weeks into a fast with the worst pandemic in a century going around. 

[InkaUtexas 25,894]

so hearing HHS issued a master plan on the 13th and they are lead federal agency with others providing specific support groups. We are on a FEMA response team as support and have not seen it. FOUO type shit. But has the prime contractor pretty damn scared. Told us if we mobilize could be up to 18 months. Glad my kiddo is almost done with High School. Feel bad for the nurses and docs who are about to go through this. 

 

[brakeman 28,359]

7 minutes ago, Longhorn Al said:

I had a weird sickness late January.  Came on quick.  Middle of the afternoon I got a tickle in my chest. By that evening I had a dry cough and a fever with major chills.  I basically sat on the couch for about 2 and a half days.  Cough didn't worsen.  Never went to the head.  Never really produced any mucus.  No body aches.  No idea what it was.

I don't have allergies and have never had the flu, so I don't know how to compare it to those.  If I've had the flu in the past, then it was nothing like what is described by others. I've never had the muscle aches and whatnot.

As for dealing with the stockpiling morons, I bought two 40pk of water and 2 gallons of distilled water (CPAP machine) and one 12pk of toilet paper.  That will last me a long time.  I might buy some more water.  Food?  I haven't bought anything yet.  If the shit hits the fan, I can fast for 2 weeks at a time with no problem.

most americans can or should/could fast / 39% Obesity in the United States

I'm starving.gif

[F250 28,766]

17 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

Not great.  His rounds of chemo only killed about 50% apparently.   They are going to open him up on April 6 and do whatever they can to remove it.  
 

problem is, they don’t quite know if it’s the kind that once it’s exposed to oxygen is going to explode in spread, or if they’ll be able to remove it.  
 

He’s 20 years old, and was almost done with USMC RC when he fell weak for “some reason”. Prayers are well appreciated.  Shit is very serious right now 

Damn, I wasn't expecting this to be someone so young. Prayers sent.

 

[Modessit 5,599]

I wonder if the test can determine if someone had it and recovered on their own already? If it's been around longer than previously thought and some of us got it in December, are we now immune? Would a test show us as having antibodies or just "negative"? Is someone who has recovered no longer contagious to people who haven't had it yet?

[Pato del Muerto 52,489]

4 minutes ago, Beau Vine said:

If you really do this, you need to keep your bullets in your shirt pocket, like Barney Fife.

*bullet

[Longhorn Al 440]

5 minutes ago, Modessit said:

I wonder if the test can determine if someone had it and recovered on their own already? If it's been around longer than previously thought and some of us got it in December, are we now immune? Would a test show us as having antibodies or just "negative"? Is someone who has recovered no longer contagious to people who haven't had it yet?

I wonder the same thing. 

[Blotto 23,496]

6 hours ago, Message Board User said:

 

[ChiTownDoc 21,149]

4 minutes ago, BurntEyes said:

Bro, I know you don't Facebook, and neither do I, but surely you don't underestimate the complete and absolute level of stupid we are surrounded by in our world.

Facts mean almost nothing anymore. They are largely worthless in the minds of most. 

This shit is sad, but obviously true.  

[ChiTownDoc 21,149]

1 hour ago, Aqua Buddha said:

My sister’s ex husband works at a titty bar in Okie City.  Titty bar is closed until further notice. (Duh.). 
 

He told her today that as a result, he can’t pay child support but still wants the kids this weekend.  Doesn’t have much food but thinks he’ll pick some up on Saturday.

Top that.

I was never too sure about your okie credentials.  But that's some legit Oklahoma shit right there.  

[Pato del Muerto 52,489]

Welp first case in my county.  Time to watch. 

[LABEVO 928]

I am going to guess we find out the same about take-out/drive-thru.

 

[ChiTownDoc 21,149]

1 hour ago, Hmbre97 said:

My brain dead ex is leaving tomorrow with our 2 sons to go to Padre Island for 4 days. Did I mention my 4 yr old is 24 hrs removed from running a fever and has a double ear infection?

If you ever want full custody this should help.  Unless of course you get that dumb ass judge in Galveston...

[Apep 645]

18 minutes ago, Modessit said:

I wonder if the test can determine if someone had it and recovered on their own already? If it's been around longer than previously thought and some of us got it in December, are we now immune? Would a test show us as having antibodies or just "negative"? Is someone who has recovered no longer contagious to people who haven't had it yet?

That’s called an antibody test. China and Singapore have them. Not sure about us. 

[Hank_Hill 18,802]

1 hour ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

I hope places like where I live,great white north) that isnt going to see the cluster like NYC or SF are preparing to send doctors, beds, equipment to aid as long as they can until they need to come back

I hope they're not. Small pockets of america with limited medical personnel and resources need to hold on to what they have because if/when it burns through there moving to one of the bigger hubs for treatment likely wont be an option

[Newdoc 3,439]

3 minutes ago, Apep said:

That’s called an antibody test. China and Singapore have them. Not sure about us. 

It is my understanding we don’t have this yet. It would be helpful.

[dcbc 14,471]

8 minutes ago, LABEVO said:

I am going to guess we find out the same about take-out/drive-thru.

Can we revisit this topic for a second.  Is it sound theory that takeout or fast food, removed from its packaging, wrappers, etc., and placed in a 170 degree (warm) oven for 15 minutes is not going to be a problem.  Same question with a microwave just for grins.

A few local restaurants I'd like to support that are doing curbside only like responsible humans.  But I don't want to risk my life to do it.

I'll take my answer off the air. 

Edited March 18, 2020 by dcbc

[Walden Ponderer 12,639]

Just now, dcbc said:

Can we revisit this topic for a second.  Is it sound theory that takeout or fast food, removed from its packaging, wrappers, etc., and placed in a 170 degree (warm) oven for 15 minutes is not going to be a problem.  Same question with a microwave just for grins.

I'll take my answer off the air. 

I seem to remember 185 being a requirement in food service,  though I admit it has been 30 years since I was in it.

[dcbc 14,471]

Just now, Walden Ponderer said:

I seem to remember 185 being a requirement in food service,  though I admit it has been 30 years since I was in it.

I know 145 holding temperature, but that's for bacteria, I thought.

[brakeman 28,359]

1 minute ago, Walden Ponderer said:

I seem to remember 185 being a requirement in food service,  though I admit it has been 30 years since I was in it.

cook and eat you own food, son.

[berlinerbaer 677]

35 minutes ago, wild_turkey said:

How does everyone feel about daycares right now? Are a lot of cities mandating that they close? Are any of you still using them?

We have friends who still take one of their two kids to daycare with no plans to stop until the daycare is forced to close. It makes no sense to me because the mom is currently home from work on maternity leave with their other kid who is ~7 weeks old.

About half are closed where we are (local district is closed) but ours is still open. As for an opinion, I completely understand both sides. Not fully knowing your friends' situation, if mom has a 7 week-old then she probably has no time to take care of the older one unless dad is there to do it. I feel bad for parents who have no choice but to work and send their kids somewhere.

We pulled both of our kids out this week once I learned I'd be mostly working from home. Otherwise I would have wanted to keep them in a week longer, despite my wife's wishes, because I know she'd get run into the ground. Having me around makes the decision easy because we are both sick of coming down with whatever the kids bring home. Foot-and-mouth and that flu that turned into pneumonia sucked. They sure as shit won't be bringing us Covid-19.

 

[Kyrie Eleison 9,312]

For whatever it is worth, given the timelines we are looking at I have changed my viewpoint on ace inhibitors and arbs such as lisinopril and Losartan. I am discontinuing and keeping on with my chlorthalidone. If you are diabetic or have other circumstances these are different circumstances. I am only considering short term outcome and have home bp monitoring that I will keep close eye one. Sig reducing salt intake in near term. 

i too discontinued my lisinipril for the time being but will continue taking my Procardia, but i now take it b.i.d instead of q.d....with doc’s blessing. follow up is in April so we’ll discuss other options.

thanks for the confirmation, Ana. post if you come across more of the same.

[FORTY NINE TO ZERO 2,652]

5 minutes ago, dcbc said:

Can we revisit this topic for a second.  Is it sound theory that takeout or fast food, removed from its packaging, wrappers, etc., and placed in a 170 degree (warm) oven for 15 minutes is not going to be a problem.  Same question with a microwave just for grins.

A few local restaurants I'd like to support that are doing curbside only like responsible humans.  But I don't want to risk my life to do it.

I'll take my answer off the air. 

I did some last week, but now I’m staying away from it. I have plenty stocked up, so not worth the risk imo 

Edited March 18, 2020 by Xian

[Walden Ponderer 12,639]

Just now, brakeman said:

cook and eat you own food, son.

My dishwasher does my cooking.

[dcbc 14,471]

5 minutes ago, Xian said:

I did some last week, but now I’m staying away from it. I have plenty stocked up, so not worth the risk I’ll. 

I did, too (last week).  I have plenty of food on hand at the house.  Like I said, there is one place in particular that led the pack in our town on Curbside only, and I want to reward that decision (Top 50 BBQ Joint) if feasible with heat at home.  Certainly not planning to eat out of the package.

This says 30 minutes at 60 C (140 F) was effective with SARS for what it's worth.

https://www.fsai.ie/faq/coronavirus.html

No decision yet, but will err on the safe side.

Edited March 18, 2020 by dcbc

[Pato del Muerto 52,489]

12 minutes ago, Hank_Hill said:

I hope they're not. Small pockets of america with limited medical personnel and resources need to hold on to what they have because if/when it burns through there moving to one of the bigger hubs for treatment likely wont be an option

See my above post of first positive test in my county- park county Wyoming. 

[Pato del Muerto 52,489]

10 minutes ago, dcbc said:

Can we revisit this topic for a second.  Is it sound theory that takeout or fast food, removed from its packaging, wrappers, etc., and placed in a 170 degree (warm) oven for 15 minutes is not going to be a problem.  Same question with a microwave just for grins.

A few local restaurants I'd like to support that are doing curbside only like responsible humans.  But I don't want to risk my life to do it.

I'll take my answer off the air. 

The packaging is surely part of the problem. Are you going to douse your pizza box or burger wrapper in Lysol or bleach solution before you remove the food to place in the oven?

[UDontKnow 10,443]

8 minutes ago, Walden Ponderer said:

My dishwasher does my cooking.

Pics of dishwasher? I hope she's hot.

[Bama Chick 28,596]

Wild story.

I can’t imagine how weird that feeling is.

[Js1 85,306]

Open the box

wash your hands

remove food and nuke briefly 

dispose of box

wash hands again 

eat

 

why is such a thing so difficult? 

[MissingInAction 25,032]

3 hours ago, Hate said:

In a row?

It's the only way tp be sure.

[Hmbre97 6,305]

If you ever want full custody this should help.  Unless of course you get that dumb ass judge in Galveston...

We separated in the summer of 2017. Our initial custody hearing was that September. A few weeks before, my ex wanted to take the kids with her to Crosby just a few days after hurricane Harvey hit so she could go see her cousin. Even after showing her the maps of all the flooded and damaged roadways and lack of power/fuel in the area, she still argued with me about taking the kids.

Fast forward a few weeks during our hearing, my attorney brings this up while I'm up on the stand. The judge stopped me mid sentence and goes "Crosby, isn't that the town that had the chemical plant that was about to explode because it was flooded?" The smile that came across my attorneys face was something else.

And that's the story of how I became the primary custodial parent.

[achooloco 1,067]

2 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

I’ve talked to a few doctor and nurses in the neighborhood from my kid’s school on text/Facebook/etc. and at least some hospitals in Austin are working/planning towards worst-case scenarios.   And they are seeing plenty with symptoms.    Basically a “we are close to everybody seeing why officials are getting aggressive”.

Appreciate the info, hearing the same. To everyone in Austin, stay safe out there. Power and water aren't going to go out, just netflix and chill. Stay inside, please.

55 minutes ago, akhornfan said:

Just remember the CFR is 3%. 1 million US are going to die. Your relatives are being wiped out as you type. 

I don't want to doxx them but I have a very close relative who works in the UT med school and at a local hospital. Spoke to them and their spouse today, the person told me they were terrified of what they saw at the hospital today and CV is going to fuck shit up. Call it alarmist, i don't care. I'd respond with go fuck yourself but Austin is going to need all the help it can get very soon. Everyone even AKHF please do what you can to stay healthy.

1 hour ago, tjhooker said:

Just had a disturbing call with my dad who lives in Sun City. My step mom has a 102 degree fever, severe headache and pneumonia setting in her lungs. She was in Ft Worth last weekend at the zoo, restaurants and watching her grandkids. I'm freaked out because my dad is super high risk.  73 yrs old, Heart attack, quad bypass and a pacemaker.  She is a pharmacist by trade and is very educated. She told me tonight she tested negative for flu and is asking for the test tomorrow.  She sounded scared.  If my dad gets this it won't be good.  They did tell her today they can't order the test unless she was directly exposed. I told them tomorrow to lie. 

Sorry they/you are going through that. Agree that lying to get tested is best ethical option here.

Both my parents are in their mid 70s, and my dad is retired but started his own business to keep busy and kept going to work this last week but "only when it was absolutely necessary". Finally think he understood today that he has to shelter at home but only after I was a real asshole and him hearing what the aforementioned relative had to say. Told him that since my mom has been listening and not going out, if they get infected it is solely bc of him and it's his fault if she dies. Also had to tell him I didn't want to have to bury him in a month, to please stop going to work. This is going to suck, a lot. I'm praying I'm wrong.

[dcbc 14,471]

4 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

The packaging is surely part of the problem. Are you going to douse your pizza box or burger wrapper in Lysol or bleach solution before you remove the food to place in the oven?

So hypothetically, I get some BBQ.  It's in a container with some paper.  I bring it home, remove it from the packaging, wrap it in foil, toss the packaging in the trash outside, wash hands, spray countertop or other surfaces packaging has touched.  Heat the foil packaged food in a 170 degree oven for 30 minutes.

Yes, it's a lot of trouble, and the food may not be like eating it in the restaurant.  But to what extent have I mitigated the risk with the above procedure?

I write all this with a packer brisket in the fridge that I will smoke before the end of the month.  But I'm curious still.

[MNLonghornFUKM 8,817]

I hope they're not. Small pockets of america with limited medical personnel and resources need to hold on to what they have because if/when it burns through there moving to one of the bigger hubs for treatment likely wont be an option

Right. Not one street light town clinics.

[Degenerate Gardner 4,085]

7 minutes ago, Bama Chick said:

Wild story.

I can’t imagine how weird that feeling is.

 

I remember going offline to backpack the northern CA coast with the Rockets down 3-1 to the Suns, then reemerging after clutch city clinched game 7. Basically the same thing.

[landman 559]

1 hour ago, dcar00 said:

my thought is this is going to bounce around some.  thousands will die over the life of this virus.  sub 20K will be a victory, hollow, but a victory none the less.

That would be flu level. Nothing hollow about that. 

[landman 559]

1 hour ago, dcar00 said:

my thought is this is going to bounce around some.  thousands will die over the life of this virus.  sub 20K will be a victory, hollow, but a victory none the less.

That would be flu level. Nothing hollow about that. 

[JBJ 3,654]

12 hours ago, JBJ said:

Updated for today:

10-day GR = 30.8%

5-day GR = 29.1%

March 17th O/U = 6,098 total & 1,435 new.

Skip to bold if you don't care about methodology and just want projections.  I found an infectious disease modelling textbook (they do exist) and updated my model from a simple exponential one.  With this comes new terms:

Growth rate is now infectivity rate. R10 and R5 for 10-day and 5-day trends.  This rate is higher than the exponential growth rate, but just barely for where we are, at the tip of the iceberg.

Also, I'm modelling deaths independently from known infections.  Hopefully, this helps give a testing-change-neutral view. Calling this M10 and M5 for 10 and 5 day trends.

Reminder that 5 < 10 os good and shows rates are decreasing. And vice-versa.

------------

Tomorrow's update:

Infectivity: R10 = 0.31, R5 = 0.31.  Was a bad day, and holding steady near 0.30 is bad.

Deaths: M10 = 0.20, M5 = 0.23.  Deaths are showing as increasing, but this might just be noise.

Tomorrow's O/U: 8,531 cases, 138 deaths