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Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

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Anastasis

Anastasis 23481

Posted
Posted

NEJM pushing a bunch of stuff out.

Failed test of a couple antiretrovirals. 

Some info on surface stability of the virus.

 

 

Aerosol and Surface Stability of SARS-CoV-2 as Compared with SARS-CoV-1

TO THE EDITOR:

A novel human coronavirus that is now named severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) (formerly called HCoV-19) emerged in Wuhan, China, in late 2019 and is now causing a pandemic.1 We analyzed the aerosol and surface stability of SARS-CoV-2 and compared it with SARS-CoV-1, the most closely related human coronavirus.2

We evaluated the stability of SARS-CoV-2 and SARS-CoV-1 in aerosols and on various surfaces and estimated their decay rates using a Bayesian regression model (see the Methods section in the Supplementary Appendix, available with the full text of this letter at NEJM.org). SARS-CoV-2 nCoV-WA1-2020 (MN985325.1) and SARS-CoV-1 Tor2 (AY274119.3) were the strains used. Aerosols (<5 μm) containing SARS-CoV-2 (105.25 50% tissue-culture infectious dose [TCID50] per milliliter) or SARS-CoV-1 (106.75-7.00 TCID50 per milliliter) were generated with the use of a three-jet Collison nebulizer and fed into a Goldberg drum to create an aerosolized environment. The inoculum resulted in cycle-threshold values between 20 and 22, similar to those observed in samples obtained from the upper and lower respiratory tract in humans.

Our data consisted of 10 experimental conditions involving two viruses (SARS-CoV-2 and SARS-CoV-1) in five environmental conditions (aerosols, plastic, stainless steel, copper, and cardboard). All experimental measurements are reported as means across three replicates.

Figure 1.Viability of SARS-CoV-1 and SARS-CoV-2 in Aerosols and on Various Surfaces.

SARS-CoV-2 remained viable in aerosols throughout the duration of our experiment (3 hours), with a reduction in infectious titer from 103.5 to 102.7 TCID50 per liter of air. This reduction was similar to that observed with SARS-CoV-1, from 104.3 to 103.5 TCID50 per milliliter (Figure 1A).

SARS-CoV-2 was more stable on plastic and stainless steel than on copper and cardboard, and viable virus was detected up to 72 hours after application to these surfaces (Figure 1A), although the virus titer was greatly reduced (from 103.7 to 100.6 TCID50 per milliliter of medium after 72 hours on plastic and from 103.7 to 100.6 TCID50 per milliliter after 48 hours on stainless steel). The stability kinetics of SARS-CoV-1 were similar (from 103.4 to 100.7 TCID50 per milliliter after 72 hours on plastic and from 103.6 to 100.6 TCID50 per milliliter after 48 hours on stainless steel). On copper, no viable SARS-CoV-2 was measured after 4 hours and no viable SARS-CoV-1 was measured after 8 hours. On cardboard, no viable SARS-CoV-2 was measured after 24 hours and no viable SARS-CoV-1 was measured after 8 hours (Figure 1A).

Both viruses had an exponential decay in virus titer across all experimental conditions, as indicated by a linear decrease in the log10TCID50 per liter of air or milliliter of medium over time (Figure 1B). The half-lives of SARS-CoV-2 and SARS-CoV-1 were similar in aerosols, with median estimates of approximately 1.1 to 1.2 hours and 95% credible intervals of 0.64 to 2.64 for SARS-CoV-2 and 0.78 to 2.43 for SARS-CoV-1 (Figure 1C, and Table S1 in the Supplementary Appendix). The half-lives of the two viruses were also similar on copper. On cardboard, the half-life of SARS-CoV-2 was longer than that of SARS-CoV-1. The longest viability of both viruses was on stainless steel and plastic; the estimated median half-life of SARS-CoV-2 was approximately 5.6 hours on stainless steel and 6.8 hours on plastic (Figure 1C). Estimated differences in the half-lives of the two viruses were small except for those on cardboard (Figure 1C). Individual replicate data were noticeably “noisier” (i.e., there was more variation in the experiment, resulting in a larger standard error) for cardboard than for other surfaces (Fig. S1 through S5), so we advise caution in interpreting this result.

We found that the stability of SARS-CoV-2 was similar to that of SARS-CoV-1 under the experimental circumstances tested. This indicates that differences in the epidemiologic characteristics of these viruses probably arise from other factors, including high viral loads in the upper respiratory tract and the potential for persons infected with SARS-CoV-2 to shed and transmit the virus while asymptomatic.3,4 Our results indicate that aerosol and fomite transmission of SARS-CoV-2 is plausible, since the virus can remain viable and infectious in aerosols for hours and on surfaces up to days (depending on the inoculum shed). These findings echo those with SARS-CoV-1, in which these forms of transmission were associated with nosocomial spread and super-spreading events,5 and they provide information for pandemic mitigation efforts.

Neeltje van Doremalen, Ph.D.
Trenton Bushmaker, B.Sc.
National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, Hamilton, MT

Dylan H. Morris, M.Phil.
Princeton University, Princeton, NJ

Myndi G. Holbrook, B.Sc.
National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, Hamilton, MT

Amandine Gamble, Ph.D.
University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA

Brandi N. Williamson, M.P.H.
National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, Hamilton, MT

Azaibi Tamin, Ph.D.
Jennifer L. Harcourt, Ph.D.
Natalie J. Thornburg, Ph.D.
Susan I. Gerber, M.D.
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA

James O. Lloyd-Smith, Ph.D.
University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, Bethesda, MD

Emmie de Wit, Ph.D.
Vincent J. Munster, Ph.D.
National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, Hamilton, MT
vincent.munster@nih.gov

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Uncle Boobs
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Against my better judgment and several beers deep, I have taken you up on this, potentially ending my streak of totally worthless posts. I have done 3 and 7 day averages only on the Worldometer data. 

Brisketexan
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Daughter’s home. A little PTSD, we’re picking up Whataburger to help.

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Post Oak

Post Oak 20260

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1 minute ago, Eastwood said:

 

Lady posts on FB that HEB is just fine, everything is ok because she was there and there was inventory and no crowd. Gets called out that she had tested positive for corona prior. Lady starts trickling out qualifiers and gets called out on each one until she finished it with "I stayed in the car." But she's obviously lying about staying in the car. People are angry and now she claims she is getting threatened.

I know all that. I was wanting any examples of her getting destroyed

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dcbc

dcbc 14508

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Came home for lunch, had leftover lasagna, and took my temp before heading back (I'm doing it 3x per day).  99.4 (was 98.4 in the morning).  Tried both ears.  Same.  Scrubbed it down with alcohol.  Wife checked hers.  Normal.  Thermometer deemed accurate.  Waited 15 minutes.  Tried again.  98.5.  Triple checked.  Went back to work.  Took it every hour on the hour.  Normal temp.  Must have been the lasagna.  Damn you Stouffers!

 

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Sbbruin

Sbbruin 21867

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2 minutes ago, Eastwood said:

 

Lady posts on FB that HEB is just fine, everything is ok because she was there and there was inventory and no crowd. Gets called out that she had tested positive for corona prior. Lady starts trickling out qualifiers and gets called out on each one until she finished it with "I stayed in the car." But she's obviously lying about staying in the car. People are angry and now she claims she is getting threatened.

If true she should be shot.

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Eastwood

Eastwood 4394

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Just now, Post Oak said:

I know all that. I was wanting any examples of her getting destroyed

Lady has not provided evidence of death threats, thereby violating the "pics or didn't happen" rule of the internet, removing all doubt that she is an awful person.

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dcbc

dcbc 14508

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 minute ago, NAVY said:

Even the East Texas box-faced whale? 

Ain't no HEB in east Texas.  

She belongs to somewhere else.  We've got enough regards to deal with.  Keep that one.

 

Edited by dcbc
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GabrielsHorn

GabrielsHorn 2186

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12 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

NEJM pushing a bunch of stuff out.

Failed test of a couple antiretrovirals. 

Some info on surface stability of the virus.

 

 

Honestly, those articles are great compared to some of the twitter journal papers that we are seeing. I've been reading their articles in the morning, and they are pretty damn good in terms of actual research. 

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SydneyCarton

SydneyCarton 48155

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28 minutes ago, triplehorn said:

No.  I received a legitimate prescription from a physician where I live for off label use of chloroquine.  The doc takes this bug and what's happening very seriously and understood the rationale we discussed and supported my request.  I got my scrip filled where I live.  I gave my elderly folks information and they approached their PCP who also understood the rationale and gave them a prescription to hold and to use ONLY in event they get sick with presumed coronavirus.  Yes there are potential side effects of and drug interactions with chloroquine and you should only take it with oversight from a physician.  I took 500mg/d for 5 days in a row last week starting on the first day I noticed my airways were getting constricted.  It seemed to halt the progression and 72 hours later I felt better.  So far my lungs haven't turned to glass and I seem ok.  I can't confirm yet whether I even had coronavirus.  But I'm in a regional hot spot, I had 3 nights of sweats and chills, restricted breathing, and had rapid onset heaviness down in the middle of my lungs/chest.  I had a single episode of diarrhea 2-3 days before the respiratory symptoms started, which one study out of China reports happened in 50% of cases of covid-19 in their study.  A thin watery nasal drip started about a day before the airways got involved.  I think I got it from my kid week before last who has also had upper airway and chest involvement that's just now clearing up . The classroom teacher fell out with sickness Tuesday last week, same time my symptoms ramped up.

Malaria prophylaxis is one tab (500mg) once per week.  So the dose being used in other countries for covid is notably higher.  It's also why the pharmacist was asking a lot of questions.  I had to visit and contact about 4 different pharmacies to find a small quantity.  When I got to final pharmacy they said they couldn't find it.  Supposedly finally found it in the "expired meds" bin.  Then couldn't fulfill it because I wasn't registered in their system.  It was like they were trying to find any reason to not fill it.  I was feeling the symptoms coming on and didn't have much patience for having to explain at that point.

The fact I made you type all that out to explain yourself is fucking wonderful. 

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89783

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1 hour ago, Larry T. Spider said:

“The governor traveled to Arlington Wednesday to discuss the situation unfolding at the Texas Masonic Retirement Center after a resident infected with the virus, 77-year-old Patrick James, died early Monday.

Texas Gov. Greg Abbott says the residents of an Arlington Masonic home where a man infected with COVID-19 lived will be tested for the deadly contagion.“

My grandmother lives here. Fun.

I wish he would shelter in place.  No way he’s traveling solo.  These people ask us to WFH and video chat instead of personal appearances.   

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ztejas

ztejas 43530

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1 minute ago, Macanudo said:

Amarillo....  Come on down.  Two confirmed cases.

Have a granddad who's nearing 90 there and a couple of uncles not in the best of health. Fingers crossed the lack of population and/or density keeps it relatively calm in WT. 

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ChickenSandwich

ChickenSandwich 9849

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5 hours ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

For those that cannot read the article behind this tweet.da47272ad0336772a36ff67c4ae1f2f0.jpg

January 14th 2020

“Preliminary investigations conducted by the Chinese authorities have found no clear evidence of human-to-human transmission of the novel #coronavirus (2019-nCoV) identified in #Wuhan, #China,” the WHO tweeted.
 

 

Fuck China

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Stunns38

Stunns38 3539

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Yeah. 
 
It is to ensure we have enough manpower on the streets as we start getting sick ourselves. No days off at all with 12 hr shifts. I believe it’s only been done once before during the Cowboys Super Bowl riots in ‘94, I think. 

Plus DPD is very undermanned. Good luck these next few weeks.
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RayDog

RayDog 682

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The Philippines has 202 cases and 17 deaths last I checked. I am not surprised the cfr is so because people here can't afford hospitals so they will wait until the last minute and most cases will never be documented. 

The initial run at grocery stores is over and they are restocked except for hand sanitizer. Now that the Filipinos are broke there is plenty for me and the lines aren't long. Of course the situation will start getting desperate soon. I am trying to keep up my stock for now. 

In the Philippines the main business of pawn shops is to send cash, so I will be sending $20 to $40 here and there to people who can't come to me because of roadblocks. My girlfriend and I will be cooking for some of her friends who live inside Angeles and can walk to my apartment. 

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Hagbard Celine

Hagbard Celine 10913

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2 hours ago, SHOOTER12 said:

Got news back on covid test, it's a big negatory folks.  Just plain old flu. A million thanks to newdoc for his guidance..

this is why we want massive testing.  the panic and hysteria will stop if we have get negatives that allow us to box in the nancy heltons.

or maybe not.

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Foosters

Foosters 17883

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Welp, Los Angeles County superior court system (the nation's largest) is set to re-open its doors this coming Friday after being shuttered since yesterday.

It's going to be an absolute shit-show and I'll be there in the middle of it. Glad I've been quarantining with my family this whole time.  

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Aqua Buddha

Aqua Buddha 14607

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1 hour ago, BurntEyes said:

Hah, you've never worked in or with supply chain logistics. 

Sure, it would work faster, but getting that in place would be a Herculean task.

Still have to have x people per aisle and find the cars and get it to the cars when they arrive. Ask any Uber driver about that shit.

I'm not against your idea, I've just worked with supply chain and humans most of my life.

 

1 hour ago, ztejas said:

I don't know. I think it would be close. If you work there and know exactly where everything is and have a list in front of you you're going to be way more efficient than people being looky loos and mozying around. 

But I'm rarely in an HEB anymore. They may have less staff typically than I think. 

I'll weight in on this and any other retail related questions.

Both of these are kind of right.  You could fairly easily cannibalize the rest of the store staff and make them order pickers.  That's the easy part.  Hard part is the IT.  Your inventory has to be correct, your app/website has to be tied into a particular store, and you have to streamline the process.  There's also the issue of physical space in the parking lots for drive through pick ups but that varies by location.  The integration of the app/website and the store specific inventory is really the hardest part.

Walmart has been doing drive through pick up pretty well now for years.  Their strength has always been what I mentioned above, in both systems and operations.  Where they suck is store experience and that's where the HEB's and Publix's of the world excel.  HEB generally sucks at this but their in store experience is great.  WMT is the inverse.  For example, WMT's store pick up is running fairly smooth right now but from what I understand, the soonest you can get a time slot at HEB is something like next weekend.

(There are also some regulatory hurdles.  If you're ordering scripts along with your food, a pharmacist has to be involved.)

That's basically it in a nutshell.

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