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Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

InkaUtexas

By InkaUtexas
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Uncle Boobs
Uncle Boobs

Against my better judgment and several beers deep, I have taken you up on this, potentially ending my streak of totally worthless posts. I have done 3 and 7 day averages only on the Worldometer data. 

Brisketexan
Brisketexan

Daughter’s home. A little PTSD, we’re picking up Whataburger to help.

Coelenterate Fuccboi
Coelenterate Fuccboi

Just try and imagine GreenspointTexas being the person to intubate you as you fight for your life against COVID-19. You’re laying there gasping for air while he chastises you for all the things you li

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Hate

Hate 20146

Posted
Posted
21 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Others did a good job.  I'm not an ID doc and getting down to cell bio is not my thing but I'll give it a stab in layman's terms.  Chloroquine is old as dirt and cheap.  Should definitely ramp up production as it has some use, likely more in early treatment and maybe protection.  Think more like tamiflu in that it won't necessarily treat the flu but getting it on board early or prophylactically helps. 

Favipiravir is a newer 'more exotic' anti-viral that is showing a lot of promise...along with a few others.  It's difficult to tell where we are with all these as very few good studies exist but many studies that will eventually be good are underway...not enough time yet to validate results, get appropriate numbers for statistical significance etc.  

The problem is SO MANY fucking people are going to get this that even if those drugs show promise, just 3% of people not responding to these drugs and eventually progressing to respiratory failure is a complete disaster for our country/healthcare system.  So 97% efficacy for a drug actually will not bail us out...it will definitely help a lot but this is how far behind the 8ball we are. 

 

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UT_OB1

UT_OB1 2225

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Modessit said:

We know what's going on in Iran and somewhat in North Korea, but I haven't heard about that shithole formerly known as Venezuela. Any news?

This shit won’t phase them. Venezuela is already in post apocalyptic mode and has been for a while. 

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clapclapclap

clapclapclap 9000

Posted
Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, Pato del Muerto said:

There’s been zero reporting from what I’ve seen here on how many have heeded the previous pleas to stay home and away from others. But it sure feels like we are woefully short of the 80% reduction that was asked for. 

Transit ridership in the SF Bay Area and parts of the NYC metro are down 90%.  IIRC, movie theater attendance nationwide last week was down 60% compared to a year ago.

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triplehorn

triplehorn 2664

Posted
Posted (edited)
34 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

The problem is SO MANY fucking people are going to get this that even if those drugs show promise, just 3% of people not responding to these drugs and eventually progressing to respiratory failure is a complete disaster for our country/healthcare system.  So 97% efficacy for a drug actually will not bail us out...it will definitely help a lot but this is how far behind the 8ball we are. 

Seems like the key chunk is the percentage of affected people  who progress to needing ICU and/or vents, which is about 5% of all cases, definitely less than 10%, I believe.  If early intervention with meds can cut the need for that level of care by a half or 2/3's, maybe we get just below the threshold that crashes the system.  Maybe health care still gets swamped, but finding a way to curtail progression to pneumonia would go a long way to making a sustainable effort.  Temporary hospitals in tents, hotels, boats etc can be set up in a reasonably quick manner and handle a lot of sick people.  Even though it's that critical need for ICU's/vents that really grabs headlines, the shortage of PPE and Covid tests is almost equally as big an obstacle to getting a handle on this with no time to prepare.

I'm hopeful that with millions of doses chloroquine now being essentially immediately available, there's a chance for an unforeseen turnaround.  But our national total lack of preparation means we still stand to get t-boned over the next 4-8 weeks regardless. 

I think the linchpin will be early detection and treatment.  The meds will almost assuredly be more effective at preventing/managing pneumonia if taken early as you mention, but that hinges on testing ---> so you just start giving out chloroquine for presumptive positives and tweener cases, which given the alternatives may be the best option under the circumstances.

 

 

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Hook1997

Hook1997 5404

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Posted (edited)

Have someone I know in Santa Fe, Texas waiting for test results and was told it could be 3-5 days...   Wtf it’s not political for either side even at this point we had two months plus to prepare and neither side did anything do anything to get us ready.  

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MaybeACoordinator

MaybeACoordinator 8349

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3 hours ago, Incredulity said:

Japan’s Health Minister Katsunobu Kato said February 22 that his ministry would recommend Avigan, developed by Fujifilm-owned Toyama Chemical, for use as a coronavirus treatment after test dosages appeared effective in mild and asymptomatic cases at least two medical institutions.

 

it’s a miracle.

also effective in asymptotic cases... everything.

Kato is very good at coming out of nowhere and blindsiding shit.

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clapclapclap

clapclapclap 9000

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Posted (edited)

Having trouble sleeping?  I'm sure this tidbit won't exacerbate that.  Plan accordingly for The Great Staycation.

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/washington-secrets/trump-eyes-grounding-jets-halting-stock-trading-ording-shelter-in-place

The Trump administration, moving quickly to halt the spread of the coronavirus, is seriously considering grounding all passenger air traffic for up to 30 days, temporarily halting stock trading on Wall Street, and imposing a shelter-in-place rule, according to officials.

Key officials have begun alerting industry leaders, Capitol Hill, and agencies that the “radical” plan could come early next week if the warlike efforts to stop the spread of the virus fail.

On Thursday, the administration began to prepare the nation for 9/11-style moves when the State Department issued a “Level Four” warning against traveling overseas. The warning is the most severe that the department has. (snip)

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BNB

BNB 100

Posted
Posted

 https://youtu.be/kYyrQ4RxtOQ

 

 

Saw this interview last night. Sounds promising.

She was talking to another Dr. And they said they gave it to one patient that was pretty bad off and they were started feeling better right away, like some kind of miracle tonic.

 

 

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washparkhorn

washparkhorn 9939

Posted
Posted

Not a doctor - but just a friendly reminder chloroquine is an immunosuppressive agent.

It has serious side effects and is toxic without proper dosing. 

Please discuss with YOUR health provider AND pharmacist before using.

The immunosuppressive activity of chloroquine is still not well established, but the drug seems to have inhibitory effect on thromboxane and interleukin-2 production. 

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/8456418 

Be safe out there. 

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Onboard 2.0

Onboard 2.0 9083

Posted
Posted
8 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Go back to the first few pages of this thread, some interesting information that was trickling out.   

Yeah went back last night.  Lots of good, and bad stuff in those posts.  

Jan. 14, 2020:  “Preliminary investigations conducted by the Chinese authorities have found no clear evidence of human-to-human transmission of the novel #coronavirus (2019-nCoV) identified in #Wuhan, #China,” the WHO tweeted.

Is the above tweet verifiably accurate ??  It seems late in the game once cases were being reported in December I thought. At this point pointing fingers is not gonna do anything to help solve the crisis, but I'd really like to know the accurate progression of this thing.

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VABuckeye

VABuckeye 2472

Posted
Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Shaddie said:

Just woke up. Email from California office says Cali governor announced stay home lockdown. Effective midnight. 

I have a team out there on a project.  We are considered an essential service so they can still work.  We fall under telecommunications infrastructure (data center).

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Onboard 2.0

Onboard 2.0 9083

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Bevo VIII said:

I would imagine within the next week to week and a half more states will begin to issue stay at home orders? I see New York being next.

I'll bet you'll see NY, NJ, and CT do it together just like the bar and restaurant shut down. They're one big state really with NYC as their capitol city.  

The internet is gonna help us out on this one I believe, with people being able to work at home.  Our economy is grinding down to a slow crawl, but being able to keep the information pipeline open will also help ramp it back up quickly. A shut down today doesn't really mean what it once did, yet at least.

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PenelopeWitherspoon

PenelopeWitherspoon 19155

Posted
Posted

How long do you really think stay at home is going to last. I think the max amount people are going to be able to handle in Europe and the US is 30 days. I think that is also about all the economy can handle.

Give enough time to ramp up healthcare, including supply chain/manufacturing, find a pharmaceutical treatment or two, and slow this a tad, then you move to more measured quarantines like just having those who are vulnerable (over 60, immunocompromised, etc...).

Anything other than that makes zero sense.

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Onboard 2.0

Onboard 2.0 9083

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Just now, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

How long do you really think stay at home is going to last. I think the max amount people are going to be able to handle in Europe and the US is 30 days. I think that is also about all the economy can handle.

Give enough time to ramp up healthcare, including supply chain/manufacturing, find a pharmaceutical treatment or two, and slow this a tad, then you move to more measured quarantines like just having those who are vulnerable (over 60, immunocompromised, etc...).

Anything other than that makes zero sense.

I personally have no idea other than it probably can't go on too long without some very long term issues.  One positive is traffic fatalities are waaaay down.

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NoName

NoName 16408

Posted
Posted
9 hours ago, Pato del Muerto said:

I’m wondering as well. Splitting lines is easy, but you need to do some actual mechanical changes to get it moving 9x the air volume per stroke. More travel?  Larger diaphragm?

i think that is a joke, seriously.

if it was as easy as 9x'ing things by just splitting, everyone would already be doing it.

what i have seen and posted upthread was about 2xing it

Quote

 

In basic terms, the rig involves pairing patients of similar size and lung capacity, and running two hoses from one ventilator running at double power.

He worries the high-risk population his hospital serves may be in greater need of ventilators than his hospital can provide.

Gauthier says the idea has been studied in theory and tried once before, for people injured in a mass shooting in Las Vegas.

 

actually after looking into Dr. Drummond's twitter, who did it was the same guy from my link

that said, i haven't seen 9xing as an option only 2?

 

 

 

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Onboard 2.0

Onboard 2.0 9083

Posted
Posted
Just now, Wally Fairway said:

Exactly which demographics? (serious question)
Italians have a longer life expectancy than Americans (fact that I could find), but I suspect that they have more smokes so that could impact.

They hug, and kiss everyone as a greeting. That's a demographic that played a part in the rapid spread thru their country according to some folks.

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EuroHorn

EuroHorn 3271

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Wally Fairway said:

Exactly which demographics? (serious question)
Italians have a longer life expectancy than Americans (fact that I could find), but I suspect that they have more smokes so that could impact.

99% of Those Who Died From Virus Had Other Illness, Italy Says 
 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-18/99-of-those-who-died-from-virus-had-other-illness-italy-says

 

average age of deaths due virus in Italy is about 79.

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VABuckeye

VABuckeye 2472

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6 minutes ago, Onboard 2.0 said:

They hug, and kiss everyone as a greeting. That's a demographic that played a part in the rapid spread thru their country according to some folks.

They had thousands of Chinese come back from China right after the virus broke.

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Onboard 2.0

Onboard 2.0 9083

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5 minutes ago, VABuckeye said:

They had thousands of Chinese come back from China right after the virus broke.

That too for sure, the leather industry correct ?  (Thanks PRC for lying about your created pandemic),  but that's not a demographic is it ?  That's an event circumstance I'd say.

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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5589

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Posted
11 minutes ago, EuroHorn said:

99% of Those Who Died From Virus Had Other Illness, Italy Says 
 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-18/99-of-those-who-died-from-virus-had-other-illness-italy-says

 

average age of deaths due virus in Italy is about 79.

Ahhh, so living longer finally caught up with them.

Now I get it

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Onboard 2.0

Onboard 2.0 9083

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Posted
1 minute ago, Bevo VIII said:

Luckily my job said they would continue to pay us if there was a temporary shut down. So part of me is kind of hoping for it but a big part is thinking of those who won’t get paid or may even lose their job

I think this is temporary, (fingers crossed, around my lucky rabbits foot and four leaf clover) and when the ban lifts demand is gonna skyrocket, and be a fertile field for folks wanting to start their own companies.  I wonder what potential services might be created as a result of this pandemic ?

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Murfdogg21

Murfdogg21 4431

Posted
Posted (edited)

Is NBA Players Association President Michele Roberts retarded or just playing political spin zone sound bite game? It’s almost a Chewbacca defense response to criticism that asymptomatic NBA players got bumped to the front of the testing lines, saying that playing in crowded arenas made them a higher risk to spread (more than the hotdog vendor who handles everyone’s cash??) and that they travel so much given their lifestyle (seems like a cross between Marie Antoinette’s “Let them eat cake” and Patrick Ewing’s "Sure NBA players make a lot of money, but we spend a lot too.") Obviously the default is to deflect and put 100% of the blame on the Federal government (her CR, not mine).

 

National Basketball Players Association executive director Michele Roberts said she was "disappointed" in the criticism NBA teams and players have gotten for receiving access to COVID-19 tests and sounded off on who she believes is responsible for the scarcity of public tests in America: the federal government. 

"There's nothing irresponsible -- if you've got that information [that you've been exposed] -- about trying to get the tests," Roberts told ESPN on Wednesday. "The problem that more of us can't get the tests -- and I'm not apologetic about saying it -- in my view, that rests at the foot of the federal government. They were responsible for making sure we were protected in that regard, and I think they failed.

"We shouldn't be fighting about this now ... but once this is done and we get through it, and we will, let's figure out who screwed up and fix that."

"I get it," Roberts said. "People should not be having to wait in line. The at-risk population should be the first to be tested. But god damn it, if the government had done what they were supposed to do, we wouldn't be competing for an opportunity to be tested."

Roberts said public health officials have expressed concern about infected NBA players exposing others to the virus because of the high number of players they come in contact with and how much they travel.

"We were doing games where tens of thousands of people were coming into our arenas. We were exposing potentially a lot of people to being infected," Roberts said. "I get it. If you're 65 years old -- I'm 64 -- and you're symptomatic and want to get tested, it must be difficult to hear about some young'uns getting tested. I get that, and the players get that. But to the extent that there was some effort to find out just how pervasive our infection was so that people would know.

Edited by Murfdogg21
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