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Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

InkaUtexas

By InkaUtexas
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Uncle Boobs
Uncle Boobs

Against my better judgment and several beers deep, I have taken you up on this, potentially ending my streak of totally worthless posts. I have done 3 and 7 day averages only on the Worldometer data. 

Brisketexan
Brisketexan

Daughter’s home. A little PTSD, we’re picking up Whataburger to help.

Coelenterate Fuccboi
Coelenterate Fuccboi

Just try and imagine GreenspointTexas being the person to intubate you as you fight for your life against COVID-19. You’re laying there gasping for air while he chastises you for all the things you li

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Murfdogg21

Murfdogg21 4,486

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Posted
2 hours ago, Loco said:

ETlJG7uXsAgKLbx?format=jpg&name=large

Dat trajectory doh!

I took my best guess of the values from the graph above. Most are being shared with the Y-axis on a log scale that gives the appearance of a flattening curve by squishing down the values the larger they get. See graph 1 for a recreation of the original (slightly different Y-axis markets).
spacer.png

The exact same data points plotted on a true X-Y graph looks like this. These weren’t flattening by Day 20 except in S. Korea and Japan. 

spacer.png

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SydneyCarton

SydneyCarton 48,308

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Posted
Just now, StruggleBus said:

So how is the spread so low in Japan?

They shut down schools a month ago, and they are a culture that actually listens to their leaders. Additionally, it’s a culture that actually worships their ancestors, so they respect the elderly. They’ve also dealt with shit from China for ages so they’re used to the concept of hostile viruses that can wipe you out. 

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13,541

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Posted

Ugh.  just ran some scary numbers in Excel.  Maybe I shouldn't.

Greater Houston population: 7m

Number of hospital beds in Houston: 20K

Infection assumption: 40%

Infected requiring hospitalization assumption: 20%

Calculation: number who will require hospitalization: 560K.    Even if you drop the the % assumptions in half (20% and 10%), you still get 140K requiring hospitalization. 20K beds waiting for them...

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KYHorn

KYHorn 17,278

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4 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

They shut down schools a month ago, and they are a culture that actually listens to their leaders. Additionally, it’s a culture that actually worships their ancestors, so they respect the elderly. They’ve also dealt with shit from China for ages so they’re used to the concept of hostile viruses that can wipe you out. 

Half joking, but I also wonder if their pre-existing social distancing among adolescents and young adults helped. 

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Murfdogg21

Murfdogg21 4,486

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3 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Ugh.  just ran some scary numbers in Excel.  Maybe I shouldn't.

Greater Houston population: 7m

Number of hospital beds in Houston: 20K

Infection assumption: 40%

Infected requiring hospitalization assumption: 20%

Calculation: number who will require hospitalization: 560K.    Even if you drop the the % assumptions in half (20% and 10%), you still get 140K requiring hospitalization. 20K beds waiting for them...

20% of infections will require a hospital bed? I thought 80% only showed mild symptoms to not even report?

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MNLonghornFUKM

MNLonghornFUKM 8,916

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Posted
Ugh.  just ran some scary numbers in Excel.  Maybe I shouldn't.
Greater Houston population: 7m
Number of hospital beds in Houston: 20K
Infection assumption: 40%
Infected requiring hospitalization assumption: 20%
Calculation: number who will require hospitalization: 560K.    Even if you drop the the % assumptions in half (20% and 10%), you still get 140K requiring hospitalization. 20K beds waiting for them...

We’re at 64 serious or critical out of almost 20k cases

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

Im sure that’s way off but glimmer of hope yaddy yada
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Bozo_Casanova

Bozo_Casanova 26,684

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Posted
2 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Ugh.  just ran some scary numbers in Excel.  Maybe I shouldn't.

Greater Houston population: 7m

Number of hospital beds in Houston: 20K

Infection assumption: 40%

Infected requiring hospitalization assumption: 20%

Calculation: number who will require hospitalization: 560K.    Even if you drop the the % assumptions in half (20% and 10%), you still get 140K requiring hospitalization. 20K beds waiting for them...

ProPublica actually built a modeling tool where you can enter your region and see how different scenarios impact the hospital/healthcare system capacity. 

 

Spoiler

It's not pretty
 

Quote

Even in a best-case scenario, with cases of coronavirus spread out over 18 months, American hospital beds would be about 95% full. (This assumes that hospitals don’t free up already occupied beds or add more beds, as some elected officials have called for.) Some regions would have the capacity to handle the surge in hospitalizations without adding new beds or displacing other patients.

But in most other scenarios where the virus spreads faster or infects more people, hospitals would quickly fill their available beds with patients, and they would be forced to either expand capacity, limit elective surgeries and other non-necessary treatments, or make life-and-death decisions about care, similar to what has happened in the worst-hit regions of Italy, where some doctors have received guidance to only treat patients “deemed worthy of intensive care.”

 

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13,541

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1 minute ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:


We’re at 64 serious or critical out of almost 20k cases

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

Im sure that’s way off but glimmer of hope yaddy yada

You're claiming that only 64 people are in any US hospital for coronavirus? You don't think that sounds low?

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Anastasis

Anastasis 23,512

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1 minute ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

ProPublica actually built a modeling tool where you can enter your region and see how different scenarios impact the hospital/healthcare system capacity. 

 

  Hide contents

It's not pretty
 

 

 

You would think that with it being the end of the world and all we could get somebody to lift the god damned rep limits. 

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13,541

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The worldometers site has interesting info, but I think it's premature to make any wide conclusions yet.  

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

Yes, they claim 64 critical cases of the 19,500 active cases.   Basically 0%. But they also show 65% of the resolved cases end up in death.  279 out of 426. Obviously no one is claiming a fatality rate of 65% but both of their numbers are in conflict because we are in the early days.

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Anastasis

Anastasis 23,512

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Posted
Just now, Nice Guy Eddie said:

The worldometers site has interesting info, but I think it's premature to make any wide conclusions yet.  

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

Yes, they claim 64 critical cases of the 19,500 active cases.   Basically 0%. But they also show 65% of the resolved cases end up in death.  279 out of 426. Obviously no one is claiming a fatality rate of 65% but both of their numbers are in conflict because we are in the early days.

I would doubt that severity/case status is being reported fully or with any consistency.  I don't think I would look at anything other than trend, and even then cautiously interpret. 

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13,541

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Posted

Other issues about hospital beds are that those beds have patients suffering from other conditions. Yes many many hospitals have ended or are ending elective surgeries, defined that a delay won't have a major impact.  But many hospitalizations are urgent items that require long hospitalization. I don't necessarily think those patients are getting kicked out.

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dcbc

dcbc 14,568

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Posted
2 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I have a neighbor that sounded like they hosted a small dinner party last night. A couple of cars in the driveway, cooking out back. What dont people get about social distancing. It’s not about whether the other people are nice, and probably are healthy.

and no I’m not mad that I didn’t get an invite.

For many, I think they believe that if they say they're doing it, they're doing it.  Kind of like Michael Scott's declaration of bankruptcy.

 

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Loco

Loco 3,754

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Posted
1 minute ago, ChickenSandwich said:

I get it but time is everything. Bottom line, if this happens in a non communist country the world is altered 6 weeks earlier for ALL timelines we are discussing regardless of competence 

You mean Like Iran, Saudi Arabia or pick a country in Africa/S America...  No  If this had emerged in a western country I think we would have had information earlier but probably spread MUCH faster to the US.  More travel and a MUCH lower desire to isolate those countries.  The Brits are off the fucking rails and they are one of the last counties for us to isolate.

If we knew in Dec (which our intel agencies almost assuredly did) and nothing really impacted us do you think we would have acted in Jan?  We knew in Jan and even as alarm bells started going off we didn't do shit.

I agree that China botched their response the first time and then covered up...   I would ask you how is the US doing anything differently?  The Federal Government & States have been hiding cases, suppressing testing, and denying information to the public and now they have pivoted to response and CYA.   It's human nature.

 

 

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utee94

utee94 15,883

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2 minutes ago, Murfdogg21 said:

20% of infections will require a hospital bed? I thought 80% only showed mild symptoms to not even report?

Yeah, I think the model should assume something more along the lines of 20% of symptomatic individuals will require hospitalization, and 20% of total infected will become symptomatic.  So it's an order of magnitude smaller, but the model should also be using TOTAL infected, not total cases confirmed positive, because those are two very different numbers.

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XYZ

XYZ 2,154

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25 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

They shut down schools a month ago, and they are a culture that actually listens to their leaders. Additionally, it’s a culture that actually worships their ancestors, so they respect the elderly. They’ve also dealt with shit from China for ages so they’re used to the concept of hostile viruses that can wipe you out. 

Also they are pretty clean, or so I heard. Maybe also they bow to say hi instead of shaking hands or kissing.

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Loco

Loco 3,754

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Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, Armybrat said:

They were not ground zero critical then.

The fuck they weren't  Northern Italy was burning and we still had direct flights to cities all over the US.  Reporters returning to the US even wrote critical pieces that upon their return they were NOT screened in ANY way.   

Sorry you are flat out wrong

 

16 days ago!

Edited by Loco
Can't speeling good
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Dahobbs

Dahobbs 17,812

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Posted (edited)
25 minutes ago, Murfdogg21 said:

20% of infections will require a hospital bed? I thought 80% only showed mild symptoms to not even report?

If you take the Imperial College of London Report numbers, you get a population wide average of 7% for the US. (7% of infected require hospitalization of some sort).  

Edited by Dahobbs
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Fudge Nuggets

Fudge Nuggets 19,276

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Posted
4 hours ago, tjhooker said:

I've started to learn I really only cook like 6 real meals. 

Same here, and the healthiest one off my menu is probably tacos.  Since tomatoes are a fruit, I got meat, fruit, veggies and grain covered.  Have to rely on buttered French bread with my gumbo to get dairy.

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utee94

utee94 15,883

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2 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

Same here, and the healthiest one off my menu is probably tacos.  Since tomatoes are a fruit, I got meat, fruit, veggies and grain covered.  Have to rely on buttered French bread with my gumbo to get dairy.

You don't put cheese on your tacos?  That would cover dairy as well.

 

 

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Hagbard Celine

Hagbard Celine 10,996

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Posted
Just now, Anastasis said:

Does anyone know of a database or resource that reports cases or testing numbers at county level?  Or something similar and more specific than state level?

we had that with the johnshopkins/arcgis site until 2 weeks ago monday when they stopped showing the data at the county level.  never got an explanation why.  excuses here were load/traffic mitigation.  said site is showing 275 us dead at this hour.

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Surly Bevo

Surly Bevo 25,524

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4 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Does anyone know of a database or resource that reports cases or testing numbers at county level?  Or something similar and more specific than state level?

Wouldn't even matter if you did have it...none of them use the same reporting criteria at a state level, much less county level.  

Read and behold how many variations there arre

https://covidtracking.com/data/

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closetojumping

closetojumping 63,156

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33 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Ugh.  just ran some scary numbers in Excel.  Maybe I shouldn't.

Greater Houston population: 7m

Number of hospital beds in Houston: 20K

Infection assumption: 40%

Infected requiring hospitalization assumption: 20%

Calculation: number who will require hospitalization: 560K.    Even if you drop the the % assumptions in half (20% and 10%), you still get 140K requiring hospitalization. 20K beds waiting for them...

Okay, so what’s your timeline for the hospitalization numbers that you’ve stretched out here? If you’re thinking that there’s a scenario where Houston will have over 100,000 or fucking 500,000 people needing a hospital bed who cannot get it because so many other people are sick at the same time, which you imply in your post, get a grip. 

Classroom math gets impacted by real world variables that aren’t going into these kinds of calculations. And there are many. Weather, age distribution, schools and workplaces shutting down and when, distance between each other in real terms, quality of care, on and on. 

 

24 minutes ago, GreenspointTexas said:

Just crossed 20,000 cases and 300 dead

Which urge is stronger for you, the desire to masturbate over the case count or the depression that the death numbers aren’t high enough yet to cause the US government to invoke martial law for a 6 month period?

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utee94

utee94 15,883

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Posted (edited)

Tracking confirmed cases at this point is a pretty useless stat, anyway.  Just too much variation in test requirement criteria, testing methodology, even from city to city and state to state, not even mentioning differences from country to country.  Then add in  the fact that we know the total infected is likely greater by orders of magnitude than the number tested.  It's just a useless and irrelevant statistic.

The only metrics we can really track at this point, that give us any representative statistical data, are deaths, and hospitalizations.  We'll have to measure and analyze those, with the understanding that we're looking at lagging indicators by 2-3 weeks from the moment of infection.

Edit: I'll add, to clarify, I'm not saying that testing itself is useless or pointless.  I'm saying that no conclusions about the spread of the virus can be drawn from looking at the number of confirmed cases resulting from testing.  

 

 

Edited by utee94
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KYHorn

KYHorn 17,278

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Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, utee94 said:

Tracking confirmed cases at this point is a pretty useless stat, anyway.  Just too much variation in test requirement criteria, testing methodology, even from city to city and state to state, not even mentioning differences from country to country.  Not to mention the fact that we know the total infected is likely greater by orders of magnitude than the number tested.  

The only metrics we can really track at this point, that give us any representative statistical data, are deaths, and hospitalizations.  We'll have to measure and analyze those, with the understanding that we're looking at lagging indicators by 2-3 weeks from the moment of infection.

 

 

I disagree. The fact that China had zero new cases tells me a ton about China's credibility.

Edited by KYHorn
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The_Great_Hornsby

The_Great_Hornsby 3,348

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13 minutes ago, utee94 said:

we're looking at lagging indicators by 2-3 weeks from the moment of infection.

 

 

 

Im not sure 14 day incubation is the norm, I think it's more the outside limit of normal, hence why the quarantine is that long. I read somewhere the actual incubation period is typically like 5 days. So I would say we are seeing indicators of 7 days ago at worst. 

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Surly Bevo

Surly Bevo 25,524

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Posted
2 minutes ago, BrickHorn said:

I mean if 300 have died, it makes sense that only 64 of those were serious cases.  Right?

I understand what you are saying but would also point out that if you look death by death A LOT of them are people who were already in care facilities (there are about 4 or 5 places in this country where about a quarter maybe even a bit more of all of our deaths reported resultant to this have occurred)....I'm not sure how those are counted in terms of hospitalizations

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