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Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

InkaUtexas

By InkaUtexas
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Uncle Boobs
Uncle Boobs

Against my better judgment and several beers deep, I have taken you up on this, potentially ending my streak of totally worthless posts. I have done 3 and 7 day averages only on the Worldometer data. 

Brisketexan
Brisketexan

Daughter’s home. A little PTSD, we’re picking up Whataburger to help.

Coelenterate Fuccboi
Coelenterate Fuccboi

Just try and imagine GreenspointTexas being the person to intubate you as you fight for your life against COVID-19. You’re laying there gasping for air while he chastises you for all the things you li

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utee94

utee94 15812

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

Im not sure 14 day incubation is the norm, I think it's more the outside limit of normal, hence why the quarantine is that long. I read somewhere the actual incubation period is typically like 5 days. So I would say we are seeing indicators of 7 days ago at worst. 

I'm talking about infection-to-hospitalization and infection-to-death.  The second is almost certainly longer than 5 days.  But yes, I'm just going on assumptions that might not be correct, same as every other model and statistician our there.  We don't know yet.

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Loco

Loco 3752

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Posted

Scrounging around in the garage earlier found 3 old N95 masks.  Am I now rich?

 

Serious question are they even worth donating to the local Hospital?  They are probably 4 years old and the rubber straps have seen better days.

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The_Great_Hornsby

The_Great_Hornsby 3236

Posted
Posted
Just now, utee94 said:

I'm talking about infection-to-hospitalization and infection-to-death.  The second is almost certainly longer than 5 days.  But yes, I'm just going on assumptions that might not be correct, same as every other model and statistician our there.  We don't know yet.

Gotcha, infection-death is much different, and I have not a clue on that one. 

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Trey3216

Trey3216 15346

Posted
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14 hours ago, High Plains Drifter said:

 

He is saying that the spike in "Influenza like illness" was actually people with covid-19 thinking they had the flu. What is troubling are the graphs in his fourth tweet in the thread that show a spike currently occurring in reported ILI (blue), without a spike in positive influenza cases (green), which suggests the number of people with covid-19 is increasing, and is much higher than reported.

 

 

"Hubei, Hubei, oh baby, you make us all get corona.   Yeah yeah yeah yeah yeah yeah. Hubei Hubei." 

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utee94

utee94 15812

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, Surly Bevo said:

We think....

Yup. nobody knows for sure yet.  There's not enough data on infection-to-death to have much idea on the reality.  Sadly, we'll get more than enough data in the coming weeks.  But hopefully, it won't be as bad as the worst case prognostications we've seen.  I see reasons to feel optimistic at this point, but only time will tell.

 

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Sgt Hulk

Sgt Hulk 13714

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, SydneyCarton said:

They shut down schools a month ago, and they are a culture that actually listens to their leaders. Additionally, it’s a culture that actually worships their ancestors, so they respect the elderly. They’ve also dealt with shit from China for ages so they’re used to the concept of hostile viruses that can wipe you out. 

essentially the exact opposite of this country   which i agree after a few tdys there same with Korea 

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Sgt Hulk

Sgt Hulk 13714

Posted
Posted

Local farmers market in my town opened at 0800 to allow only fresh produce no prepared foods to be sold,  this is an enormous market that runs 2 days a week.  i got there at 0845  the line was close to 1 mile long with only a few let in at a time, estimated 3 plus hours wait.  This reminds me of stories ive seen in other countries   no cr

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Surly Bevo

Surly Bevo 24908

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Sgt Hulk said:

essentially the exact opposite of this country   which i agree after a few tdys there same with Korea 

Maybe opposite in terms of worship of elders but there are a lot of things we are closer to them on than much of Europe is.

The images of pie faced spring breaking dipshits going human centipede as this goes on certainly generate an emotional response from those watching this but we are not a touch feely society and many still follow the rules (whatever they are) pretty stringently. 

Are we bow and distance like Japan?  No, but everybody in the US keeps a cool distance as much as possible most of the time.  Restaurants generally eschew community seating (fucking everywhere in Europe) people greet with handshakes (men) and woman (and some men) will hug those that they know really really well but it isn't a regular form of greeting etc.  

All of that to say that assuming a pretty damn open society like Japan isn't cooking numbers or hiding things understanding what not only they did (mainly best I can tell is that they closed schools and those people love to wear a mask) but how they generally operate relative to us day to day will be one of many things we should be keying in on not just as we try to figure out how bad this may get and if the juice is worth some of the squeeze but how to approach heading off any future waves

All of this presupposes that they don't all of a sudden blow the fuck up.  

 

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Macanudo

Macanudo 12976

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, Sgt Hulk said:

Local farmers market in my town opened at 0800 to allow only fresh produce no prepared foods to be sold,  this is an enormous market that runs 2 days a week.  i got there at 0845  the line was close to 1 mile long with only a few let in at a time, estimated 3 plus hours wait.  This reminds me of stories ive seen in other countries   no cr

And you waited the 3 hours?

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Hmmm

Hmmm 155

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Loco said:

It seems like you are equating TP hoarding & shortages to Hospital ventilator shortages.   People who do not need vents are NOT being put on vents.   Doctors feel free to step in here and correct me if I'm wrong.

not a doctor, but people were hoarding masks.  not sure if they are the same ones that hospitals use, but likely, and if so definitely contributed to the low supply.

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Iceman

Iceman 2700

Posted
Posted (edited)
29 minutes ago, Sgt Hulk said:

Local farmers market in my town opened at 0800 to allow only fresh produce no prepared foods to be sold,  this is an enormous market that runs 2 days a week.  i got there at 0845  the line was close to 1 mile long with only a few let in at a time, estimated 3 plus hours wait.  This reminds me of stories ive seen in other countries   no cr

Maybe it's a West Texas thing, but our produce has not been out of stock too badly.  Maybe potatoes one day and yellow onions another, but overall and relative to fresh meat and paper goods; produce has been in pretty damned good shape across our market.

Are y'all seeing sections wiped out?

Edited by Iceman
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Armybrat

Armybrat 40832

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Loco said:

The fuck they weren't  Northern Italy was burning and we still had direct flights to cities all over the US.  Reporters returning to the US even wrote critical pieces that upon their return they were NOT screened in ANY way.   

Sorry you are flat out wrong

 

16 days ago!

Six weeks after my reference

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CHIEF

CHIEF 5080

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Anastasis said:

Does anyone know of a database or resource that reports cases or testing numbers at county level?  Or something similar and more specific than state level?

I'm using one a buddy sent me. You can click on the counties and it will give you the number of confirmed cases and deaths, but not the tested numbers.

https://infection2020.com

No confirmed cases for my county yet.

CHIEF

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Pato del Muerto

Pato del Muerto 52489

Posted
Posted
34 minutes ago, Sgt Hulk said:

Local farmers market in my town opened at 0800 to allow only fresh produce no prepared foods to be sold,  this is an enormous market that runs 2 days a week.  i got there at 0845  the line was close to 1 mile long with only a few let in at a time, estimated 3 plus hours wait.  This reminds me of stories ive seen in other countries   no cr

I’m heading out at noon my time to pick up 50 lb of potatoes, who knows how much spinach, and whatever else my wife ordered from a farm down the road. There will be no line, and there will be a box to drop cash or check. 
 

now, do I have enough cream, oil, or butter to handle 50 lbs of potatoes?  No I do not. So let’s home it doesn’t come to eating dry baked potatoes with salt. 

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Pato del Muerto

Pato del Muerto 52489

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

Seems like cold comfort.

foreclosure doesn’t occur missed payment +1

No shit. Luckily I don’t need relief, and shouldn’t, but my big creditors so far are only offering to not take my house that’s on time, and to suspend car payments but continue accruing interest that gets slapped onto the back of the loan. 
that might “help” people now but will cost them later. 
why not freeze payments and interest for 60-90 days and then start back up?  Can lenders not afford to go that long without payments?

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Grade of D as in David

Grade of D as in David 13253

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Pato del Muerto said:

No shit. Luckily I don’t need relief, and shouldn’t, but my big creditors so far are only offering to not take my house that’s on time, and to suspend car payments but continue accruing interest that gets slapped onto the back of the loan. 
that might “help” people now but will cost them later. 
why not freeze payments and interest for 60-90 days and then start back up?  Can lenders not afford to go that long without payments?

save GIF

No they cannot

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TxEx84

TxEx84 398

Posted
Posted (edited)
Quote

The fact that China had zero new cases tells me a ton about China's credibility.

My daughter (no pics) is friends with someone from Wuhan.  He is still in quarantine.  50 days and counting.  Cannot leave apartment.  He says there absolutely are new cases from people he knows.  China cut off his internet acess on Tuesday of this week.  No one has heard from him since.  Assume he's dead now.  

Edited by TxEx84
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Pato del Muerto

Pato del Muerto 52489

Posted
Posted

Numbers (WAG but rosey imo)

330mm Americans 

40% infection rate is 132mm

5% hospitalization rate is 6.6mm

10% ventilator required is 660k. 
 

evenly over 6 months is 110k per month.  Depending on where the bulk of the cases are, can we handle that?

lets put deaths at 10% of vent cases so 66k deaths.  Lots of assumptions and ignorance in these numbers, but what kind of loading can the hospital system take and still provide good care?

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Hmmm

Hmmm 155

Posted
Posted

dude

3 hours ago, Loco said:

It seems like you are equating TP hoarding & shortages to Hospital ventilator shortages.   People who do not need vents are NOT being put on vents.   Doctors feel free to step in here and correct me if I'm wrong.

1 hour ago, Loco said:

Scrounging around in the garage earlier found 3 old N95 masks.  Am I now rich?

 

Serious question are they even worth donating to the local Hospital?  They are probably 4 years old and the rubber straps have seen better days.

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G650

G650 14252

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Numbers (WAG but rosey imo)

330mm Americans 

40% infection rate is 132mm

5% hospitalization rate is 6.6mm

10% ventilator required is 660k. 
 

evenly over 6 months is 110k per month.  Depending on where the bulk of the cases are, can we handle that?

lets put deaths at 10% of vent cases so 66k deaths.  Lots of assumptions and ignorance in these numbers, but what kind of loading can the hospital system take and still provide good care?

I think hot spots are gonna be the issue. Maybe we can transfer people to less affected areas.

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GreenspointTexas

GreenspointTexas 9600

Posted
Posted
Just now, Grade of D as in David said:

Why are we asking people to put off elective surgeries?

Can't we just tell Drs not to do them?

 

Also Dr F is awesome. 

As someone who intubates people for a living and does 90% elective surgeries, i can tell u that MDs dont give a damn about this virus. They are going to do procedures and surgeries until the govt tells them to stop

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MNLonghornFUKM

MNLonghornFUKM 8817

Posted
Posted
The fact that China had zero new cases tells me a ton about China's credibility.
My daughter (no pics) is friends with someone from Wuhan.  He is still in quarantine.  50 days and counting.  Cannot leave apartment.  He says there absolutely are new cases from people he knows.  China cut off his internet acess on Tuesday of this week.  No one has heard from him since.  Assume he's dead now.  

Oh that’s reassuring
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Incredulity

Incredulity 11666

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Numbers (WAG but rosey imo)

330mm Americans 

40% infection rate is 132mm

5% hospitalization rate is 6.6mm

10% ventilator required is 660k. 
 

evenly over 6 months is 110k per month.  Depending on where the bulk of the cases are, can we handle that?

lets put deaths at 10% of vent cases so 66k deaths.  Lots of assumptions and ignorance in these numbers, but what kind of loading can the hospital system take and still provide good care?

Why aren’t we making every large city convention center and fairgrounds building emergency hospitals.

Issuing blanket open PO’s for ventilators to each site backed by Feds.  Same for all emergency medical supplies.

 

Makes more sense than thinking people will stay home for months on end.

 

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triplehorn

triplehorn 2664

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, TxEx84 said:

My daughter (no pics) is friends with someone from Wuhan.  He is still in quarantine.  50 days and counting.  Cannot leave apartment.  He says there absolutely are new cases from people he knows.  China cut off his internet acess on Tuesday of this week.  No one has heard from him since.  Assume he's dead now.  

damn.  Until there's a safe and effective vaccine, China's total population and population density will continue to hold it hostage indefinitely.  The sheer quantity of resources needed to stabilize rolling outbreaks in that country is beyond calculation.

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clapclapclap

clapclapclap 9000

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

Seems like cold comfort.

foreclosure doesn’t occur missed payment +1

It's something the govt has control over that could be done quickly.  It is not the last step they'll take on this, but it's a start.  It's intended to set the tone, send a message, and help prevent panic.  

And now they add that while the Feds don't yet have the authority to freeze all foreclosures and delay payments, they are working with Congress to change that.  Are working with lenders to try and get voluntary compliance in the interim.

 

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Iceman

Iceman 2700

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, triplehorn said:

damn.  Until there's a safe and effective vaccine, China's total population and population density will continue to hold it hostage indefinitely.  The sheer quantity of resources needed to stabilize rolling outbreaks in that country is beyond calculation.

They should build a wall...

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