Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

[InkaUtexas 25986]

10 minutes ago, Nicole44 said:

Lots of love to all of y’all! My mom had her 72 birthday today and we all tried to make it special...if by special a drive by and handing her a present on a sidewalk. Kenny Rogers died today. Not from this shit but like it matters. 
 

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=7hx4gdlfamo

Happy Birthday Mom! My daughter is making birthday cards everyday and posting them on Twitter. PM me if you want the link. 

[Dbeasy 15068]

The government has forced us into a recesssion out of perceived necessity by shutting the economy down. The masses across the country have largely complied without controversy besides the idiots on beaches in Florida. They’ve opened massive liquidity for banks and such with the fed. That needs to translate into assuring the lenders that they’ll be made whole and the US citizen can have relief until this period is over without a penalty or credit hit. That needs to also include life-lining apartment and condo landlords and their renters, impoverished up to uber wealthy.
I hope they’re building to this, because so far, in looking at SBA stuff and the packages released so far, things like eventual credits or rebates and such won’t keep companies from having to lay people off or keep many from having to close the doors. That’s started already. They need to be looking at infusing thorough liquidity with relative ease and speed at every level of the economy and population if the shutdown is going to last more than 2-3 more weeks. They’re kidding themselves if they don’t get real about the liquidity issue if the shutdown is prolonged. 

In my opinion the administration believes this entire exercise is a Hail Mary to see if they can somehow slow it down or shut it down enough to not over-run the healthcare system, knowing that in about six weeks they will have to make the difficult decision to lift the restrictions to reduce the possibility of an economic catastrophe.

At that point they will be able to do that without harsh backlash from the public because everyone will see that the Hail Mary failed and they will be so devastated financially that they will accept it. This is all a very calculated political move.

[UTHornFan014 710]

Your cholesterol number doesn’t matter. What matters if it has created heart disease. 

Thanks!

Doc did a carotid IMT/EKG a few months ago and didn't notice anything out of the ordinary, so hopefully nothing going on with the heart. Put me on Atorvastatin, but haven't had the follow up blood work yet, to see how it has done.

[Surly Bevo 25049]

44 minutes ago, wild_turkey said:

 

Not sure what area you are in 

He mans the Panic Room.

[Mrs Whiggins 13050]

1 hour ago, Iceman said:

They should build a wall...

Rep because it took me five minutes for my other shoe to drop.

[Surly Bevo 25049]

42 minutes ago, clapclapclap said:

 

This is not good....unless you start using those tests to do more randomized population testing and then follow forward to try to knock out a lot of the selection bias currently in play.

[Beau Vine 54254]

16 minutes ago, Nicole44 said:

Lots of love to all of y’all! My mom had her 72 birthday today and we all tried to make it special...if by special a drive by and handing her a present on a sidewalk. Kenny Rogers died today. Not from this shit but like it matters. 
 

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=7hx4gdlfamo

 

Maybe the most fitting for today:

 

[BillyGoatHill 4312]

1 hour ago, CHIEF said:

I'm using one a buddy sent me. You can click on the counties and it will give you the number of confirmed cases and deaths, but not the tested numbers.

https://infection2020.com

No confirmed cases for my county yet.

CHIEF

Found another site that is giving updates throughout the US with total tested.     https://covidtracking.com

Texas through yesterday... Total tests 5277,  194+ , 5083- .

[Hagbard Celine 10871]

11 minutes ago, yoladu said:

When i posted this graph last Tuesday, it showed how we could pace Italy in # of cases. Looks like we are WAY outpacing Italy at this point. 

If we were still pacing Italy in # of cases, we would have had 9,172 cases at this point (3/20).. but as of right now we are at 22,813 cases.

 

Not good.

yes good.  we want a massive denominator.  and we want to know where the damn thing is so we can react to it faster.

[KeysPhoneWallet 807]

Ugh.  just ran some scary numbers in Excel.  Maybe I shouldn't.
Greater Houston population: 7m
Number of hospital beds in Houston: 20K
Infection assumption: 40%
Infected requiring hospitalization assumption: 20%
Calculation: number who will require hospitalization: 560K.    Even if you drop the the % assumptions in half (20% and 10%), you still get 140K requiring hospitalization. 20K beds waiting for them...

You’re missing a very important time element. Think of the hospital beds as 20k bed-months and apply time to get to the 40% infection rates. Also, it would be better to break that 20% hospitalization rate into age bands and normalize for Houston’s demographics


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[Nicole44 22061]

You picked a fine time to leave me Lucille.....

oh sorry, forgot to post something relevant. If by Wednesday, according to people I know in the medical profession, we are over 100,000 cases of infected people, we will be going under even more draconian measures than we already are

Edited March 21, 2020 by Nicole44

[Surly Bevo 25049]

1 minute ago, Nicole44 said:

You picked a fine time to leave me Lucille.....:

Four shitty children and no TP in the field.

[KeysPhoneWallet 807]

Other issues about hospital beds are that those beds have patients suffering from other conditions. Yes many many hospitals have ended or are ending elective surgeries, defined that a delay won't have a major impact.  But many hospitalizations are urgent items that require long hospitalization. I don't necessarily think those patients are getting kicked out.

Yup I haven’t seen people trying to estimate the secondary deaths the covid displacements will cause. Someone dying from diabetes that normally wouldn’t. What happens when 20% of our medical staff need hospitalizations, etc


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[hayden_horn 11362]

Fyi, my hood's heb (slaughter manchaca holla) is now limiting entry.  Parking lot about 75% capacity, and I'm in a long line out front waiting. Been twenty minutes so far. 

[Surly Bevo 25049]

Sounds like you Austin folks need to branch out from HEB, regional provider, not going to be supplied like big dogs.

[Modessit 5603]

You joke but apparently a certain somebody had heard he was discharged from the hospital and had to be stopped from tweeting condolences....not understanding that discharged did not equal dead.

If you're going to spread disinformation like this then you're treading on CR territory. The FACTS are that a staff member for a certain somebody misinterpreted what "discharged" means and told him Hanks had died. That certain somebody was then tweeting condolences before someone else corrected it. I'm sure that certain somebody is pretty busy right now and can't be monitoring celebrity news himself.

[babysdaddy 2725]

When i posted this graph last Tuesday, it showed how we could pace Italy in # of cases. Looks like we are WAY outpacing Italy at this point. 
If we were still pacing Italy in # of cases, we would have had 9,172 cases at this point (3/20).. but as of right now we are at 22,813 cases.
 
Not good.

Would taking into account population levels of respective countries be prudent in making this comparison?

[Buzzrock 14922]

Yup I haven’t seen people trying to estimate the secondary deaths the covid displacements will cause. Someone dying from diabetes that normally wouldn’t. What happens when 20% of our medical staff need hospitalizations, etc


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Look here under Collateral Damage

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56

Very good article. A little long but worth it.

[Nicole44 22061]

5 minutes ago, Surly Bevo said:

Four shitty children and no TP in the field.

You bitch! You slut! You whore!

[Loco 3752]

2 hours ago, Pato del Muerto said:

now, do I have enough cream, oil, or butter to handle 50 lbs of potatoes?  No I do not. So let’s home it doesn’t come to eating dry baked potatoes with salt. Vicodin.

  /nomartian

[BillyGoatHill 4312]

31 minutes ago, yoladu said:

When i posted this graph last Tuesday, it showed how we could pace Italy in # of cases. Looks like we are WAY outpacing Italy at this point. 

If we were still pacing Italy in # of cases, we would have had 9,172 cases at this point (3/20).. but as of right now we are at 22,813 cases.

 

Not good.

The country (US) has had roughly 175000 tests completed with 21-22000 + positive cases reported, 257 deaths.

While the death rate will surely climb higher, as a country right now the death rate is 1.19%. Much lower than other countries and what some doomsayers are saying for us. 

Sorry, but trying to take a more + outlook right now.

Edited March 21, 2020 by BillyGoatHill

[Shaggybevo 353]

1 hour ago, GreenspointTexas said:

As someone who intubates people for a living and does 90% elective surgeries, i can tell u that MDs dont give a damn about this virus. They are going to do procedures and surgeries until the govt tells them to stop

Austin Regional Clinic called me two days ago and cancelled my elective procedure.  They are not rescheduling at this time.  They told me they are cancelling all elective procedures.

[Deej 76830]

6 minutes ago, BillyGoatHill said:

Sorry, but trying to take a more + outlook right now.

We'll have none of that around here.

[Rip76 4943]

9 minutes ago, BillyGoatHill said:

The country (US) has had roughly 175000 tests completed with 21-22000 + positive cases reported, 257 deaths.

While the death rate will surely climb higher, as a country right now the death rate is 1.19%. Much lower than other countries and what some doomsayers are saying for us. 

Sorry, but trying to take a more + outlook right now.

Average age of deaths in the US?

[Message Board User 12395]

 

[Nicole44 22061]

3 minutes ago, Deej said:

We'll have none of that around here.

Hey. I’m coughing like a mofo so y’all are having a better outcome if I’m no longer posting. Slight fever. No reason for any panic. Where is Ramjet with the cool memes and shit?
 

 

[Mikey4 2476]

After weeks of people saying this virus is "no big deal," you've convinced me that they are right, in a sense. But it still feels like a fucking big deal.

Carl Sagan's 1994 speech on the Pale Blue Dot always helps me put any struggle, no matter how big it may seem, in perspective:

We succeeded in taking that picture, and, if you look at it, you see a dot. That’s here. That’s home. That’s us. On it, everyone you ever heard of, every human being who ever lived, lived out their lives.

The aggregate of all our joys and sufferings, thousands of confident religions, ideologies and economic doctrines, every hunter and forager, every hero and coward, every creator and destroyer of civilizations, every king and peasant, every young couple in love, every hopeful child, every mother and father, every inventor and explorer, every teacher of morals, every corrupt politician, every superstar, every supreme leader, every saint and sinner in the history of our species, lived there — on a mote of dust, suspended in a sunbeam.

The Earth is a very small stage in a vast cosmic arena. Think of the rivers of blood spilled by all those generals and emperors so that in glory and in triumph they could become the momentary masters of a fraction of a dot. Think of the endless cruelties visited by the inhabitants of one corner of the dot on scarcely distinguishable inhabitants of some other corner of the dot. How frequent their misunderstandings, how eager they are to kill one another, how fervent their hatreds. Our posturings, our imagined self-importance, the delusion that we have some privileged position in the universe, are challenged by this point of pale light . . .

To my mind, there is perhaps no better demonstration of the folly of human conceits than this distant image of our tiny world. To me, it underscores our responsibility to deal more kindly and compassionately with one another and to preserve and cherish that pale blue dot, the only home we’ve ever known.

[BillyGoatHill 4312]

3 minutes ago, Rip76 said:

Average age of deaths in the US?

Havent found info on that yet.....I'll look around.

[UTGrad98 2280]

14 minutes ago, BillyGoatHill said:

The country (US) has had roughly 175000 tests completed with 21-22000 + positive cases reported, 257 deaths.

While the death rate will surely climb higher, as a country right now the death rate is 1.19%. Much lower than other countries and what some doomsayers are saying for us. 

Sorry, but trying to take a more + outlook right now.

And this is with nursing homes in the US contributing significantly to our death toll. 

[Enchubben 5510]

17 minutes ago, KeysPhoneWallet said:

Yup I haven’t seen people trying to estimate the secondary deaths the covid displacements will cause. Someone dying from diabetes that normally wouldn’t. What happens when 20% of our medical staff need hospitalizations, etc


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How about lives saved due to quarantine? Around 100 people die each day in the US due to traffic accidents. If you figure that even if that’s reduced by only 50%, coronavirus has been net positive with regards to immediate deaths.

[XYZ 2154]

15 minutes ago, BillyGoatHill said:

Sorry, but trying to take a more + outlook right now.

GTFO with that optimistic shit. We’re all gonna die.

[Elvis 3371]

8 minutes ago, yoladu said:

When i posted this graph last Tuesday, it showed how we could pace Italy in # of cases. Looks like we are WAY outpacing Italy at this point. 

If we were still pacing Italy in # of cases, we would have had 9,172 cases at this point (3/20).. but as of right now we are at 22,813 cases.

 

Not good.

Improved and increased testing are identifying cases more rapidly than a week ago.  

[UTGrad98 2280]

Im really starting to think we have 4 weeks total of mandatory quarantine, all ages. Then we move to a mandatory quarantine of those 65 and older indefinitely while opening back up the economy with social distancing and hygiene. And let it burn through the under 65 population. 

[ChiTownDoc 21154]

16 hours ago, NorthLoop said:

Of all the businesses and industries that are gonna get hit hard by this, Vegas is not on the list of those I worry about. The house always wins. 

 

[ChiTownDoc 21154]

3 minutes ago, UTGrad98 said:

Im really starting to think we have 4 weeks total of mandatory quarantine, all ages. Then we move to a mandatory quarantine of those 65 and older indefinitely while opening back up the economy with social distancing and hygiene. And let it burn through the under 65 population. 

You, my friend, would be a great epidemiologist. This is where its heading imo.  

[Sgt Hulk 13786]

2 hours ago, Macanudo said:

And you waited the 3 hours?

F no  i went to trader joes and waited 45 min in that line lol

[XYZ 2154]

7 minutes ago, UTGrad98 said:

Im really starting to think we have 4 weeks total of mandatory quarantine, all ages. Then we move to a mandatory quarantine of those 65 and older indefinitely while opening back up the economy with social distancing and hygiene. And let it burn through the under 65 population. 

Hopefully by the end of the four weeks they figured which anti-viral medicine works best, made billions of doses, and distributed it all over the place. Oh, and also significantly ramped up testing capability. So, say you get a fever, you drive to a drive-through, get a test, and they hand you a baggie with chlorowhatever. A day later (not 3 to 5!) they call you and they say “yep, it’s positive, start taking the medicine as per the instructions; in five days you’ll either be alive (and recovering) or dead”. Clack.

Edited March 21, 2020 by XYZ

[BillyGoatHill 4312]

1 minute ago, Enchubben said:

How about lives saved due to quarantine? Around 100 people die each day in the US due to traffic accidents. If you figure that even if that’s reduced by only 50%, coronavirus has been net positive with regards to immediate deaths.

This was also true during the first Gulf War/Desert Storm (a previous engagement with Saddam for you youngsters). 

The military did a study after the fact and found out that the traffic deaths for military personel actually declined from August '90 (first sending of troops to Saudi) through the ending of hostilities and the sending home of troops in March '91. They had lost less troops during that time frame than previous yrs . and due to the low casualties in the fighting, it was, at that time statistically safer for them to be in a combat zone or in direct combat.

[Message Board User 12395]

 

[Stunns38 3536]

Hopefully by the end of the four weeks they figured which anti-viral medicine works best, made billions of doses, and distributed it all over the place. Oh, and also significantly ramped up testing capability. So, say you get a fever, you drive to a drive-through, get a test, and they hand you a baggie with chlorowhatever*. A day later (not 3 to 5!) they call you and they say “yep, it’s positive, start taking the medicine as per the instructions; in five days you’ll either be alive (and recovering) or dead”. Clack.

Fify
*except for patients with underlying conditions.

[Modessit 5603]

When i posted this graph last Tuesday, it showed how we could pace Italy in # of cases. Looks like we are WAY outpacing Italy at this point. 
If we were still pacing Italy in # of cases, we would have had 9,172 cases at this point (3/20).. but as of right now we are at 22,813 cases.
 
Not good.

They need to redo this chart with only CV19 deaths.

[mdmost 43004]

49 minutes ago, hayden_horn said:

Fyi, my hood's heb (slaughter manchaca holla) is now limiting entry.  Parking lot about 75% capacity, and I'm in a long line out front waiting. Been twenty minutes so far. 

And I'm sure the 6 feet social distance is really being adhered to. I turned around after seeing all the people streaming into Sam's Club yesterday. F that. I went instead to a smaller grocer that didn't seem busy. It's interesting grocery stores and big box providers like Sam's are able to operate here in Dallas like it's no big deal that hundreds of people are all together in tight quarters, waiting in long lines all up next to each other. Bars, restaurants, and the like are all closed down or forced to do to go only. I saw a tweet of a group of about 30 people all huddled outside of a Mi Cocina here waiting on to go orders. We're a dumb fucking species. 

Edited March 21, 2020 by mdmost

[CfRhTxStBobcats 602]

29 minutes ago, BillyGoatHill said:

The country (US) has had roughly 175000 tests completed with 21-22000 + positive cases reported, 257 deaths.

While the death rate will surely climb higher, as a country right now the death rate is 1.19%. Much lower than other countries and what some doomsayers are saying for us. 

Sorry, but trying to take a more + outlook right now.

You really think the death rate will climb?  We know the number of deaths but have no clue the number of cases right now. If theres twice as many cases as reported, which is very likely, but the number of deaths is what has been reported, that death rate is going to plummet.

[dimyh 1874]

1 hour ago, Nicole44 said:

Lots of love to all of y’all! My mom had her 72 birthday today and we all tried to make it special...if by special a drive by and handing her a present on a sidewalk. Kenny Rogers died today. Not from this shit but like it matters. 
 

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=7hx4gdlfamo

https://getyarn.io/yarn-clip/0d544046-b2f8-432b-a49a-355f94c4bf0e#0gQV5Pc49G.copy

 

[Murfdogg21 4413]

Cloth masks 2-3x higher infection rates to healthcare workers, allow 97% of particulate to get through

[BillyGoatHill 4312]

17 minutes ago, XYZ said:

GTFO with that optimistic shit. We’re all gonna die.

Ha! Can't help myself sometimes....

4 minutes ago, Modessit said:

1 hour ago, yoladu said:

When i posted this graph last Tuesday, it showed how we could pace Italy in # of cases. Looks like we are WAY outpacing Italy at this point. 
If we were still pacing Italy in # of cases, we would have had 9,172 cases at this point (3/20).. but as of right now we are at 22,813 cases.
 
Not good.

They need to redo this chart with only CV19 deaths.

I'd have to look a little bit more to get the comparison with the US /Italy but got these numbers from John Hopkins    https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html 

Total cases world wide per their site as of 1/2 hr ago..... 298,393   deaths 12,755  total recoveries 91654

Worldwide death rate 4.2%

Total recovery rate 30.6%

The Us death rate is currently at 1.2%.  21-22000 confirmed positive cases with 257 deaths.

 

[Auto Driller 2506]

My grandfather was in the Air Force and my dad lived in Italy for about 10 years growing up.

He has stayed in contact with friends that he knew from that time in the Naples area. A good friend of his, who is now 70 years old is “incredibly ill” along with the other 3 members of her family. They have been told not to visit the hospital as there is simply no room for them. They are just hoping for the best. Scary stuff...

[CfRhTxStBobcats 602]

39 minutes ago, Shaggybevo said:

Austin Regional Clinic called me two days ago and cancelled my elective procedure.  They are not rescheduling at this time.  They told me they are cancelling all elective procedures.

Please share the results of the breast augmentation. Could really use the pick-me-up around here.

[dcbc 14487]

I'm hearing through a friend of a friend who is in healthcare, that of our 8 confirmed cases in Smith County, we had our first death this morning.  If it is who I'm 99% sure it is, I know his son.  The man and his wife both were in in ICU.

Edited March 21, 2020 by dcbc

[Loco 3752]