Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

[babysdaddy 2729]

Testing ramping

[Aqua Buddha 14625]

19 minutes ago, Dr. Beeper said:

Speaking of aging populations I’m really surprised Japan doesn’t have a higher death rate. 

Not a lot of touching going on there.  Not much sexin’, either.  Italians, on the other hand.....

[Bevo 13606]

1 hour ago, closetojumping said:

I know for certain of 4 businesses this week that lobbed calls into their business insurance providers and asked about business interruption coverage for this and they were told that they could certainly file a claim, but this kind of thing was specifically excluded. I’m now of the opinion that paying for BII is a waste of fucking time. Plenty of folks filing after Harvey got denied. Fuck the insurance companies and everything they represent. I hope there is a hell and that they’re all headed to it. 

That considered:

1) I guess some actuaries read The Stand a long time ago and this shit made the math. They had it the whole way, so congrats. 

2) How difficult would it be to start an business insurance company? They seem like they just collect money and do very little else. 

I looked into BII in February and they told me specifically that it wouldn't cover this (after spending hours on the phone). I'm with you in that I don't know what it does cover. In fact, I had a hard time getting an answer to that question. Their sales pitch did not match their policies and it was a pain in the ass getting the policy to read the fine print.

For example, I asked for details on overhead expense insurance and they emailed me a brochure that basically stated that the insurance may cover: Rent or mortgage payments (principal, interest and taxes), Salaries and payroll taxes, Student loan payments, Uniforms for employees, Electricity, heat, water and phone bills, Laundry and janitorial expenses, Property and liability insurance premiums, Life and medical insurance premiums for employees, Depreciation,  Principal and interest on business debt associated with your practice — including loan payments for practice purchase, expansion, renovation or furnishing and Professional association dues. Great, it pays for things that I am interested in. But when can I make a claim? I couldn't get a clear answer so I gave up.

Seriously, fuck insurance companies.

[ChiTownDoc 21175]

29 minutes ago, washparkhorn said:

Reuters reported Russia had a spike in pneumonia and then . . . poof . . . the Russians deleted those statistics and employed then State run media to report pneumonia was down.

Russia gonna Russia. 

They literally put them down.  P value <.002

[MissingInAction 25222]

5 minutes ago, BurntEyes said:

Well at least someone gives a fuck and appears not to be an idiot. Props to him.

He's calling out that stupid old bitch as he and everyone in that room should be doing.

[dcar00 14382]

7 minutes ago, babysdaddy said:

 

 

Testing ramping

 

probably not enough numbers yet but 13% of those getting tested are testing positive.  extrapolated would be around  40ish million right?

Edit: saw that not all states report negatives.  they need to do that.

Edited March 21, 2020 by dcar00

[Newdoc 3457]

Just now, dcar00 said:

probably not enough numbers yet but 13% of those getting tested are testing positive.  extrapolated would be around  40ish million right?

The threshold to test varies incredibly. Besides SK, I don’t think there is anywhere I would say there is widespread testing.

[Hate 20149]

Nm

[dcar00 14382]

Just now, Newdoc said:

The threshold to test varies incredibly. Besides SK, I don’t think there is anywhere I would say there is widespread testing.

Its not supposed to, but I get your point.  I'm just going by the numbers reported.  definitely variables

[Grade of D as in David 13253]

15 minutes ago, Lobo said:

Russia, China, Iran, so many of them are full of shit.  That's nothing new, blaming them on a national platform does nothing.  The conspiracy bullshit about these countries starting/spreading/hiding evidence about this can be for another thread that I look forward to reading when I'm stinking drunk.  

However, one bit of good news about our higher education system educating hordes and hordes of foreign students from undergrad to post-grad fellowships in the sciences for all these decades is that many of American scientists, doctors, and researchers became friends with them during their time here.  Working closely on projects, their zest for science often transcends politics and nationality.  There are robust back-channels between leaders in medicine and sciences all over the world and many of them connect through U.S. citizens because of how many came through here at some point.  Those relationships are getting us the good data sets we will need from these parts of the world to plot accordingly.  

I should know, I think I got all C's and B's in my science classes in college.  

Showoff

[Newdoc 3457]

Just now, Hate said:

Isn’t it more accurate to say 13% of those showing symptoms and meet the testing requirements are testing positive?

Not even that because testing restrictions/qualifications are dependent on local health departments/hospital systems and they may hold testing to only the sickest or most vulnerable.

[Hpara759 1781]

Electricity just went off....78626

Asshole puckered just a bit

[dcar00 14382]

1 minute ago, Hpara759 said:

Electricity just went off....78626

Asshole puckered just a bit

can you imagine this going on in the summer with Cali going through rolling brown outs and everyone inside with A/C cranked?

[mdmost 43060]

One thing that's been bugging me as I've gone to places for essentials, every place has you hand a credit card to someone or touch a touchscreen to complete a transaction, assign a tip, add your signature or decline a receipt. Only one place has taken my credit card info over the phone for a to-go order. Unless these touchscreens and pinpad devices are being constantly sprayed down, that's an easy portal for the disease to possibly spread. I think I might start opting for more Apple Pay places just to avoid the use of those machines entirely. 

Edited March 21, 2020 by mdmost

[Hagbard Celine 10938]

the stress on the grid diminishes dramatically when office buildings are empty and can be set to 79+.

[Hagbard Celine 10938]

1 minute ago, mdmost said:

One thing that's been bugging me as I've gone to places for essentials, every place has you hand a credit card to someone or touch a touchscreen to complete a transaction, assign a tip, add your signature or decline a receipt. Only one place has taken my credit card info over the phone for a to-go order. Unless these touchscreens and pinpad devices are being constantly sprayed down, that's an easy portal for the disease to possibly spread. I think I might start opting for more Apple Pay places just to avoid the use of those machines entirely. 

i would tell them to sign it for me after adding an additional $5 on top of whatever tip i already paid.

but yeah the ability to pay online in advance is almost a requirement.

[Francisco 2.0 32432]

Did some yardwork and cleaned on the garage today; 7 year old daughter came outside to ride her bike and whatnot.  

I'm in the garage, and she come in and tells me excitedly that there was a woman in the street with coronavirus.  

How can you tell?

She's wearing a mask on her mouth!

What was she doing?

Walking her dogs...and there she is! (said loudly combined with pointing).

I look, and sure enough it was the mid 60's lady who lives down the street walking her two dogs.  On cue, she coughed loudly for what seemed like 10 seconds. 

(I'm now wondering if I need to check on the neighbor later this evening)

It's ok honey, she's wearing a mask to protect other people who might be outside.  And she might not have coronavirus.  She may just have the flu. And don't point.

Oh I know, when you have coronavirus you wear a mask.  (Off she went on her bike)

 

 The state of society in spring 2020.  On one hand, I'm glad my daughter saw the mask, recognized that someone may have coronavirus, and this is a means to protect others.  On the other, it troubles me that my 7 year old lives in a world where coronavirus is a thing, and she's informed about this.  There's so much else in her life; she doesn't need the real world right now.

Stay safe everyone.

 

[dcar00 14382]

1 minute ago, Hagbard Celine said:

the stress on the grid diminishes dramatically when office buildings are empty and can be set to 79+.

good point. I think Cali would still be having rolling brown outs if it was hot.  

[UDontKnow 10451]

1 hour ago, SDG said:

How does India only have 330 cases with 1.3B densely packed in people?

Because they responded damn near immediately. Deaths are still in single digits thus far.

[UDontKnow 10451]

48 minutes ago, washparkhorn said:

Reuters reported Russia had a spike in pneumonia and then . . . poof . . . the Russians deleted those statistics and employed then State run media to report pneumonia was down.

Russia gonna Russia. 

It's 2020 and people still don't comprehend that authoritarian regimes can not be trusted.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13529]

Been reading a few places where some seem to be looking how the US is about the same number of cases as Spain and Iran but 1/6 the deaths. Creates a conclusion that our death rate from covid will remain low. I hope that is the case but I fear it’s more that I don’t believe people die quickly with covid. It seem to take a while to destroy lung tissue and progress to secondary conditions.

now we seem to be in a period of high growth of new, active cases but we may not see a spike in deaths for at least a week. Once again I hope I’m wrong. 

[BillyGoatHill 4312]

7 minutes ago, Newdoc said:

Not even that because testing restrictions/qualifications are dependent on local health departments/hospital systems and they may hold testing to only the sickest or most vulnerable.

👆This. Everlywell here in ATX  will release 30000 tests on Monday . They have a prescreening (recent travel to areas known with virus, fever above certain temp, known contact) to be able to purchase and use the test.

So, I bet our numbers are skewed with higher than normal + tests due to the prescreening. Not going to waste limited test for those with no symptoms or other times that meet the criteria for right now.

[washparkhorn 9939]

Testing is progressing.

Please note we do not have testing results from blood draws in hospitals in the counts announced by the Fed Gov yet. If they are inserted next week (end of the week) as announced by the USG today, the positives will spike in their roundup of numbers. 

[atomheartbevo 89859]

1 hour ago, MissingInAction said:

Took luna to mueller lake thinking id have enough space.. nope a dumb fuck with his dog off leash comes walking up. I told him to fuck off and put his dog on leash.

Luna swatted the shit out of his dog. Sounded like punching a side of beef.

 Solid couple of fuck off barks and that was that.

Bitch aint playin.

Way too many of these fucktards letting their dogs roam leash-free in parks where it’s clearly posted to keep their dogs on leashes.   And plenty of them get pissed off when you point out the leash signs to them.   It feels like it’s gotten worse over the past 6 months, and they think every park is a dog park.    

I saw one woman get yelled at after her large dog ran up to a group of small kids, and one of the parents screamed at her and was threatening to call animal control, and she was almost in tears about how she’s in an apartment and she needs her dog to be able to roam free or whatever and they just didn’t understand.

It’s gotten to the point in our area where there’s a small group of people filming these idiots, and trying to ID them.  I don’t know what they plan on doing, whether it’s putting their shit on blast on social media, or going to the city, or what, but everybody is tied of these jackasses.  

Will be fun as the weather improves and more people get out to the parks while being stircrazy.   

On a side note, a friend of ours from Vermont said these quarantines and the like are proving that a lot of southerners would not be able to handle winters in the north.  

[williemackgarza 1826]

Electricity just went off....78626
Asshole puckered just a bit

You in gtown?

[Dbeasy 15135]

So would mine if I let her. I started following this disease in late December, and bought extra  masks and gloves in January. I noticed that the supplies were going down in late January and reiterated that they were for storage in case of a shortage. Her response was something like, "Oh, our supplier has them. I can just reorder them when we run low". I tried not showing my irritation, but it is pretty easy to see on me, unfortunately. Luckily, this was still way before the panic buying started.
The funny thing to me is that months later, the office manager started panicking due to all the news about the virus. I told her that I had been talking about it for 3 months. And her response was, "I know, that is why I am asking you". "My boyfriend and I just went to Sams Club and Walmart and bought XXX". So I ended up having an office meeting to explain the same things I had been talking about when no one listened.

Sorry, you were saying something?

[MNLonghornFUKM 8823]

Been reading a few places where some seem to be looking how the US is about the same number of cases as Spain and Iran but 1/6 the deaths. Creates a conclusion that our death rate from covid will remain low. I hope that is the case but I fear it’s more that I don’t believe people die quickly with covid. It seem to take a while to destroy lung tissue and progress to secondary conditions.

now we seem to be in a period of high growth of new, active cases but we may not see a spike in deaths for at least a week. Once again I hope I’m wrong. 

Many of us believe this thing was wide spread across America 6 weeks ago so either many who had it didn’t think they did because it “wasn’t here officially”, a lot of unexplained February deaths, or whatever

[Eastwood 4394]

22 minutes ago, mdmost said:

One thing that's been bugging me as I've gone to places for essentials, every place has you hand a credit card to someone or touch a touchscreen to complete a transaction, assign a tip, add your signature or decline a receipt. Only one place has taken my credit card info over the phone for a to-go order. Unless these touchscreens and pinpad devices are being constantly sprayed down, that's an easy portal for the disease to possibly spread. I think I might start opting for more Apple Pay places just to avoid the use of those machines entirely. 

I've been using Samsung Pay for this reason. Still have to touch the pad to finish it, but I try to stay super conscious about not touching my face until I can wash my hands and sanitize.

[bschoolprof 6273]

13 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Been reading a few places where some seem to be looking how the US is about the same number of cases as Spain and Iran but 1/6 the deaths. Creates a conclusion that our death rate from covid will remain low. I hope that is the case but I fear it’s more that I don’t believe people die quickly with covid. It seem to take a while to destroy lung tissue and progress to secondary conditions.

now we seem to be in a period of high growth of new, active cases but we may not see a spike in deaths for at least a week. Once again I hope I’m wrong. 

Our severity rate (severe = shortness of breath, low blood oxygen, etc) is much lower than Iran and Italy and Spain, which is consistent with the lower death rate.  

Quote

This is data as of March 20th, 2020.

 

 

 

[washparkhorn 9939]

Gloves for the touchy things.

Edited March 21, 2020 by washparkhorn

[washparkhorn 9939]

4 minutes ago, bschoolprof said:

Our severity rate (severe = shortness of breath, low blood oxygen, etc) is much lower than Iran and Italy and Spain, which is consistent with the lower death rate.  

 

 

Just remember official USG numbers do not include hospital tests yet. So the severity may not be showing up on some of these tallies. USG said today they would try to incorporate Hospital tests in their numbers by the end of next week. 

Edited March 21, 2020 by washparkhorn

[closetojumping 62898]

21 minutes ago, Hagbard Celine said:

the stress on the grid diminishes dramatically when office buildings are empty and can be set to 79+.

This reminds me. One hidden thing happening right now is that residential electricity bills are going to be much higher for the next few months. Just one of the many unanticipated and potentially problematic or at least interesting side effects of this shutdown. Residential customers have been trained to expect really low bills in April and May due to low usage and usually low pricing, driven by mild weather. 

[Gunsup 56]

Delete 

Edited March 21, 2020 by Gunsup

[Neonmoon 38130]

10 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Way too many of these fucktards letting their dogs roam leash-free in parks where it’s clearly posted to keep their dogs on leashes.   And plenty of them get pissed off when you point out the leash signs to them.   It feels like it’s gotten worse over the past 6 months, and they think every park is a dog park.    

I saw one woman get yelled at after her large dog ran up to a group of small kids, and one of the parents screamed at her and was threatening to call animal control, and she was almost in tears about how she’s in an apartment and she needs her dog to be able to roam free or whatever and they just didn’t understand.

It’s gotten to the point in our area where there’s a small group of people filming these idiots, and trying to ID them.  I don’t know what they plan on doing, whether it’s putting their shit on blast on social media, or going to the city, or what, but everybody is tied of these jackasses.  

Will be fun as the weather improves and more people get out to the parks while being stircrazy.   

On a side note, a friend of ours from Vermont said these quarantines and the like are proving that a lot of southerners would not be able to handle winters in the north.  

Is there a How not to be a shitty Dog Owner Etiquette Thread? Because if not, there needs to be. Too many people in my neighborhood walk their dogs off leash and it makes me ragey. Then when our dogs start after each other, they pull the “he’s never like this”. 

[Loco 3754]

After spending 3-4 hrs outside doing lawn work the whole family went for a little drive today and swung down by the beach. (Didn't get out of the car)   It's Sunny, beautiful, and middle 80s here.

Spring Break is DONE in Ft Lauderdale.  Signs warning of arrest for trespass on the sand and groups of cops every block or so.  The Elbow room is hard CLOSED...  although I did see some t-shirt shops are still open.  WTF?

People are still on the sidewalk, not as many as I thought but looked like some tourist trying to make the best of it and the usual locals on bikes, blades, and skateboards.  

A lot of people are heading out on their boats.  More than usual out and I think that's fine, certainly they're social distancing.

Restaurants are still open for take out, ice cream shops too.

Best Buy, fucking Best Buy is still open and lots of cars in the parking lot.  There is a lot of confusion as to who will enforce closures and there are some businesses that are flat out no playing along.

Several of the large cruise ships are just hanging on the hook off the beach (very unusual) All the ships are in and I guess there isn't enough dockage in port - I think that's the best case scenario... 

I get the sense that people are playing along with the spirit of the thing, but shit will need to get real to catch their undivided attention.

/csb

[NAVY 6747]

About to pick up chicken fried steak from Hoover’s. Suck it virus 

[Sandman 3419]

My sister texted me and casually mentioned that her 27 year old daughter has the virus. I asked if she had tested positive, she said no and that she "heard" they won't test young people but she's got the symptoms. I said "great diagnosis, Doc" and changed the subject. The fact that she didn't immediately post about it on facebook leads me to believe it's not true, she's incabable of keeping any of her life details to her self.

[Sgt Hulk 13872]

went for my daily 6 mile run to Redondo, the strong is mildly flowing with runners and cyclist, but eerie to see how empty for a saturday  67 sunny and slight breeze  

[utee94 15870]

7 minutes ago, Loco said:

 

 

Best Buy, fucking Best Buy is still open and lots of cars in the parking lot.  There is a lot of confusion as to who will enforce closures and there are some businesses that are flat out no playing along.

 

Lot of folks are being forced right now to purchase technology to enable work from home, and retailers are one way to obtain that.  I suppose some people are just looking for some 6x9s for their bitchin' Camaros, but there's a legitimate need for tech retailers to be open right now.  Online vendors are running out of inventory quick.

 

Edited March 21, 2020 by utee94

[closetojumping 62898]

6 minutes ago, bschoolprof said:

Our severity rate (severe = shortness of breath, low blood oxygen, etc) is much lower than Iran and Italy and Spain, which is consistent with the lower death rate.  

 

 

We also smoke less, are younger, and have way less pollution than those 3 countries, among other factors.

There’s nothing conclusive that those things matter and nothing says the math isn’t simply lagging because of testing or something. However, not thinking any of those things are relevant would be willful ignorance from folks. 

[El Diablo 4232]

Yeah, I don't know what all environmental factors play into the death rate but we're one fat, soft society. We'll see soon enough I guess.

[Tex Long 4462]

1 minute ago, El Diablo said:

Yeah, I don't know what all environmental factors play into the death rate but we're one fat, soft society. We'll see soon enough I guess.

Fat may be the operative condition here.

[Loco 3754]

6 minutes ago, utee94 said:

Lot of folks are being forced right now to purchase technology to enable work from home, and retailers are one way to obtain that.  I suppose some people are just looking for some 6x9s for their bitchin' Camaros, but there's a legitimate need for tech retailers to be open right now.  Online vendors are running out of inventory quick.

 

Didn't think of that...  good point.

[Bama Chick 28596]

Update on the 44 year old lawyer who ran a couple of marathons that was talked about earlier in this thread -

[Texas Jeff 1946]

3 hours ago, BillyGoatHill said:

The country (US) has had roughly 175000 tests completed with 21-22000 + positive cases reported, 257 deaths.

While the death rate will surely climb higher, as a country right now the death rate is 1.19%. Much lower than other countries and what some doomsayers are saying for us. 

Sorry, but trying to take a more + outlook right now.

Sorry if this is obvious, but the death rate while (number of critical patients < number of ventilators) is much lower than when (number of critical patients > number of beds with ventilators).  Like maybe 4x lower.  We are still in that first phase and trying to avoid that second phase.

 

[ClubWhatever 12159]

11 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

This reminds me. One hidden thing happening right now is that residential electricity bills are going to be much higher for the next few months. Just one of the many unanticipated and potentially problematic or at least interesting side effects of this shutdown. Residential customers have been trained to expect really low bills in April and May due to low usage and usually low pricing, driven by mild weather. 

Yeah but other bills go way down for most people, either by choice or edict - like gas, entertainment, and child care.  If you are lucky enough to be able to work from home and not get a pay cut, you can circle the wagons for a while.   This is why sending 1200 checks indiscriminately makes no sense to me.  

[Poe It Up 126]

If anybody here shops at Sam’s, I highly suggest downloading their app for a speedy checkout. The lines were insanely long, so we just scanned our items with our phone and paid with the card on file. The hardest part was not strutting by all the suckers still waiting in line.

[Loco 3754]

so this seems not so good...

Quote

Under the new rules announced late on Saturday, sport and physical activity outside, even individually, is banned. Using vending machines is forbidden.

The move comes as Italy reported nearly 800 coronavirus deaths on Saturday and saw its toll for the past month reach 4,825, the highest in the world.

Lombardy is the worst-affected region in the country with 3,095 deaths.

The region's President Attilio Fontana announced the new measures in a statement.

Businesses have been asked to close all operations excluding "essential" supply chains. Work on building sites will be stopped apart from those working on hospitals, roads and railways.

All open-air weekly markets have been suspended.

 

Edited March 21, 2020 by Loco

[Mikey4 2476]

Update on the 44 year old lawyer who ran a couple of marathons that was talked about earlier in this thread -

 

 

 

Shit shit shit. Just crazy. Using a pseudonym, he started a law blog called Underneath Their Robes back in the early 2000s, when I was in law school. Word got around that he was the writer. That blog then turned into Above the Law, one of the most popular legal publications today. He cashed out a long time ago. He's an incredibly cool guy. I hope he pulls through.

 

[Bozo_Casanova 26582]

3 hours ago, BillyGoatHill said:

The country (US) has had roughly 175000 tests completed with 21-22000 + positive cases reported, 257 deaths.

While the death rate will surely climb higher, as a country right now the death rate is 1.19%. Much lower than other countries and what some doomsayers are saying for us. 

Sorry, but trying to take a more + outlook right now.

1) I'm not sure that's true

2) That also may not be good, for a variety of reasons

3) The CFR is the wrong yardstick - the most important yardstick by far is the hospitalization rate.