Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

[Mikey4 2476]

Has anyone seen a report on life in Wuhan today? My impression is that everyone is back to work with minimal new cases. Hopefully that's right.

[Hanrahan 1306]

Our statistics are fake. Shit, other than South Korea nobody is tracking infections.

Nobody should believe a goddamn thing the South Koreans say since Roy Jones Jr. lost the gold medal to some South Korean scrub he beat to shit in the ring.

[Mikey4 2476]

Well I was curious to know if social distancing in Austin is having an effect.  So I searched around to get daily case numbers reported by Austin and Travis County, then made a chart.  Here's what it looks like so far, an exponential increase would be just a straight line:

Hmmm, maybe a knee forming around March 20th, hard to tell.  If we break 100 cases today that's kinda bad, because it means we've gone up an order of magnitude in 8 days. 
"Stay at home" for us kicked in around March 13th, the day that Austin ISD cancelled school.  We are now eight days into it.  The curve should be starting to bend.
 

86 cases in Austin as of 7pm today.

[HenryJames 66188]

5 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

 

So you’re posting something that says some place in this country is willing to pay non-certified, new to local healthcare system nurses a run rate of $520,000 annual salary and it didn’t cross your mind, even vaguely, that it was completely and utter bullshit? If you are actually working on people in the healthcare system in Houston, I’m moving out of the area and burning every healthcare facility to the ground on my way out of town, just to spare society from your future. 

You are the exact problem with what is going on right now. Just pure, reactionary idiocy, completely devoid of deploying any logic or reason to anything they’re hearing. Every rumor is a fact, and it must be passed on immediately!

You fucking sped. 

You laugh, but that’s how I met my Russian online girlfriend.

[Coelenterate Fuccboi 13120]

3 minutes ago, Mikey4 said:

Has anyone seen a report on life in Wuhan today? My impression is that everyone is back to work with minimal new cases. Hopefully that's right.

You are easily impressed.

[MNLonghornFUKM 8822]

GMT issues with lining up the days 

They need to realize we all operate on cdt

[Loco 3754]

Breakout by metros.  

[Modessit 5606]

This site is incredibly informative, highly entertaining, a little weird, and a dash of cuntiness...all wrapped up in one giant asshole tortilla. 

Fixed it to make it banner worthy.

[Mikey4 2476]

You are easily impressed.

No need to be a dick. I'm just asking a question.

[Dahobbs 17698]

33 minutes ago, naija said:

if your model is giving you 10,000-50,000 deaths daily, you have to step away from it and consider what it might be missing.

the best way to use a model is to continually revise it with new data and re-model. the fact that some of the pictures and charts floating around look like "copy and paste" items from when the term "flatten the curve" first became popular suggests that might not be going on, or more likely the real work is getting drowned out by the mass amplification of twitter. 

Other than it being an uncomfortably large number, what basis do you have for that? What were the CDC and the Imperial College of London wrong about? Isn't the evidence plentiful at this point that double period for this outbreak is largely between 3 and 5 days absent serious societal intervention? Do you dispute that it'll take some time for our closures last week to show up in the statistics? What new data has come out that would challenge any of those assumptions? Seriously, I want a reason to believe you. 

[akhornfan 4]

5 minutes ago, Loco said:

Breakout by metros.  

Placing far, far too much importance on the first 100 deaths. 

[BillyGoatHill 4312]

7 minutes ago, HenryJames said:

You laugh, but that’s how I met my Russian online girlfriend.

[WBT 20672]

9 minutes ago, Loco said:

Breakout by metros.  

It would be interesting to see those rates modeled versus population density, average daily temp, average relative humidity, and whatever other factors you could think to throw in there.  You'd need a way to account for societal norms for contact and timing of social distancing efforts also.

Edited March 24, 2020 by WBT

[Iceman 2726]

Might be interesting to see deaths vs last year in NY and the US.

How many deaths are ‘incremental’ for lack of a better term.

Factor in population growth and tell us if more people are dying, or whether people are just dying from something different, or not.

 

Is that a crazy POV?

[akhornfan 4]

2 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

Other than it being an uncomfortably large number, what basis do you have for that? What were the CDC and the Imperial College of London wrong about? Isn't the evidence plentiful at this point that double period for this outbreak is largely between 3 and 5 days absent serious societal intervention? Do you dispute that it'll take some time for our closures last week to show up in the statistics? What new data has come out that would challenge any of those assumptions? Seriously, I want a reason to believe you. 

No - the doubling is not obvious because we have little to no grasp on the actual number of infected. 
 

Obviously some scenarios were run at worst case. I’m really curious what makes you seem to ‘want’ the number to be bad.

[Texas St. Armadillos 1381]

India on lockdown.  I imagine lots of companies, like ours, utilize companies over there for significant transactional activities.  I wonder how many of those folks have high speed internet at home?

[Pato del Muerto 52617]

25 minutes ago, EuroHorn said:

Like I mentioned before, Italy has direct links to Wuhan. They have (or had) daily non-stop flights to Wuhan. And there’s about 300,000 Chinese now living in the country and working primarily in the garment industry. 
 

Also, not sure why we think we’re lagging Italy. My guess is that this virus was already widely spread in the US back in January.  We have non-stops from Wuhan to JFK and SFO

My answer is because hospitalizations aren’t tracking like it’s already widespread.  Why are they only increasing now, seemingly concurrently with testing?

[Skipper 6209]

3 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

My answer is because hospitalizations aren’t tracking like it’s already widespread.  Why are they only increasing now, seemingly concurrently with testing?

This.  it wasn't 'widespread' here in January.  That isn't debatable.  There is literally zero data to support that.  NY ICU's aren't just magically filling up to capacity at the moment due to a coincidence.

[akhornfan 4]

6 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

My answer is because hospitalizations aren’t tracking like it’s already widespread.  Why are they only increasing now, seemingly concurrently with testing?

I would think a confirmed case has a higher likelihood of hospitalization than an unconfirmed one. Not that that’s a bad thing.

Edited March 24, 2020 by akhornfan

[VABuckeye 2472]

42 minutes ago, G650 said:

Virginia too. As is construction, thankfully.

Ashburn here. Yeah, all construction is a go but we’re on hold for finding out if we’ve won new government projects. 

Edited March 24, 2020 by VABuckeye

[dcar00 14378]

1 hour ago, Onboard 2.0 said:

Thank you. Does anyone really believe they're reporting accurate numbers ?

exactly they shut down so they can claim they stopped the virus better than Europe or US and it must have been somewhere else already.  those fuckers want to hide.  fuck them.  they were telling the WHO up to Jan 14th that this virus DID NOT transfer person to person.  fuck them, again. the press better light their ass up.

[Parliament 14336]

My sister (no pics) works for one of the big hospitals in Columbus. She says they're cutting people's hours for lack of patients. That's gonna change of course but it's good to know they're in a good place at the beginning.

[Pato del Muerto 52617]

3 minutes ago, akhornfan said:

I would think a confirmed case has a higher likelihood of hospitalization than an unconfirmed one. Not that that’s a bad thing.

I would not think that. Respiratory distress is respiratory distress.

[Mikey4 2476]

I would not think that. Respiratory distress is respiratory distress.

Something like 80% of cases have only mild symptoms. A lot of those people will take dayquil and push through without getting tested. The conformed positive tests are more likely to be the more severe cases, such that more of them will be hospitalized.

[akhornfan 4]

3 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

I would not think that. Respiratory distress is respiratory distress.

Oh come on. They’re for sure admitting earlier to the hospital for confirmed cases. 

[Coelenterate Fuccboi 13120]

4 minutes ago, Parliament said:

My sister (no pics) works for one of the big hospitals in Columbus. She says they're cutting people's hours for lack of patients. That's gonna change of course but it's good to know they're in a good place at the beginning.

Good place? They’re in Ohio...

[Incredulity 11683]

15 minutes ago, Iceman said:

Might be interesting to see deaths vs last year in NY and the US.

How many deaths are ‘incremental’ for lack of a better term.

Factor in population growth and tell us if more people are dying, or whether people are just dying from something different, or not.

 

Is that a crazy POV?

Not at all.  
 

There is a whole pile of nuance being cast aside.  
 

 

[Modessit 5606]

Hold on

 

[Pato del Muerto 52617]

1 minute ago, Mikey4 said:

5 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

I would not think that. Respiratory distress is respiratory distress.

Something like 80% of cases have only mild symptoms. A lot of those people will take dayquil and push through without getting tested. The conformed positive tests are more likely to be the more severe cases, such that more of them will be hospitalized.

And those mild cases aren’t going to the hospital, even with a positive test. 

[Pato del Muerto 52617]

2 minutes ago, akhornfan said:

Oh come on. They’re for sure admitting earlier to the hospital for confirmed cases. 

They are struggling with ppe and bed availability. I’d presume the opposite. 

[Skipper 6209]

2 minutes ago, akhornfan said:

Oh come on. They’re for sure admitting earlier to the hospital for confirmed cases. 

Then just look at NY ICU Data over the past 5 days per the Peter Attia video posted.   You aren't getting admitted to ICU with the sniffles.

[SizzleChest 8284]

32 minutes ago, HenryJames said:

You laugh, but that’s how I met my Russian online girlfriend.

[Modessit 5606]

A friend's husband is a GM at a grocery store in the greater Austin area (a suburb). She was freaking out about the SIP order and he showed her this letter he got last week:




Another friend has a son who works for Target and they gave him a similar letter this past weekend.

A lot of my fellow Amazon and gig-food delivery peeps are wondering if we'll need a similar letter before too long.

[akhornfan 4]

1 minute ago, Skipper said:

Then just look at NY ICU Data over the past 5 days per the Peter Attia video posted.   You aren't getting admitted to ICU with the sniffles.

God. You’re ignoring the obvious. All things equal - a confirmed case is going to get admitted first. 

[Mikey4 2476]

And those mild cases aren’t going to the hospital, even with a positive test. 

That's right, but you're missing the point that they probably won't be tested at all. A lot of them won't want to do it (too much hassle, risk of infection if your symptoms are caused by something else, no insurance, etc.). And the ones who DO want a test might not be able to get it given the ridiculous restrictions on testing due to limited availability.

[UT_OB1 2225]

2 minutes ago, Modessit said:

A friend's husband is a GM at a grocery store in the greater Austin area (a suburb). She was freaking out about the SIP order and he showed her this letter he got last week:




Another friend has a son who works for Target and they gave him a similar letter this past weekend.

A lot of my fellow Amazon and gig-food delivery peeps are wondering if we'll need a similar letter before too long.

 

Things can always change, but we’ve already been told we won’t be getting papers here in Harris if we go to SiP. No controlled access. Honor system. 

[F250 28826]

11 minutes ago, Texas St. Armadillos said:

India on lockdown.  I imagine lots of companies, like ours, utilize companies over there for significant transactional activities.  I wonder how many of those folks have high speed internet at home?

I had a call with some of my people in Bangalore this morning to discuss C-19. There wasn't much to discuss as everyone on the call is already Work From Home staff. They described the situation over there being pretty similar to our SiP process except they will have road closures. It was interesting to hear their concerns and complaints which pretty much sounded like ours. People worried about elderly parents, lack of testing, ventilators, masks and flattening the curve.

As to internet connectivity, the tech hub cities should be fine as far as that is concerned. The internets is serious business over there.

 

 

 

[closetojumping 62883]

25 minutes ago, Iceman said:

Might be interesting to see deaths vs last year in NY and the US.

How many deaths are ‘incremental’ for lack of a better term.

Factor in population growth and tell us if more people are dying, or whether people are just dying from something different, or not.

 

Is that a crazy POV?

Listen, it is not a crazy point of view. Problem is, it has no fucking place on this thread. This is the thread where we extrapolate numbers without caveat until all of us are presumed dead ...  from COVID19, sir. 

[dcar00 14378]

53 minutes ago, EuroHorn said:

Like I mentioned before, Italy has direct links to Wuhan. They have (or had) daily non-stop flights to Wuhan. And there’s about 300,000 Chinese now living in the country and working primarily in the garment industry. 
 

Also, not sure why we think we’re lagging Italy. My guess is that this virus was already widely spread in the US back in January.  We have non-stops from Wuhan to JFK and SFO

interdasting.  non stops to JFK and SFO from bat eatin city.  donde esta outbreakas de largas?

[Skipper 6209]

5 minutes ago, akhornfan said:

God. You’re ignoring the obvious. All things equal - a confirmed case is going to get admitted first. 

What the fuck is your point dude.  If you are trying to argue the only reason there is a mass recent increase in NY ICU admissions is because we are testing, not because a shit load of people are getting seriously ill as a result of the massive Covid Cluster in NYC, then you need a lot more than -16 neg rep.  This shit wasn't widespread in any US location in January.  Period.  There is not not a single competent medical source that thinks that is plausible.

[InkaUtexas 26173]

28 minutes ago, VABuckeye said:

Ashburn here. Yeah, all construction is a go but we’re on hold for finding out if we’ve won new government projects. 

Stand by for some changes to new awards. Seeing lots of site visits getting cancelled, delayed, etc.

[akhornfan 4]

4 minutes ago, Skipper said:

What the fuck is your point dude.  If you are trying to argue the only reason there is a mass recent increase in NY ICU admissions is because we are testing, not because a shit load of people are getting seriously ill as a result of the massive Covid Cluster in NYC, then you need a lot more than -16 neg rep.  This shit wasn't widespread in any US location in January.  Period.  There is not not a single competent medical source that thinks that is plausible.

‘Dude’ it’s a component. You can’t only look at one part of the picture. You’re the one extrapolating. I’m saying more testing and more confirmations is going to lead to more hospitalization. 

[LebongJames 1815]

86 cases in Travis County. Increase of 7 from yesterday.

[Texas Jeff 1945]

58 minutes ago, Mikey4 said:

2 hours ago, Texas Jeff said:

Well I was curious to know if social distancing in Austin is having an effect.  So I searched around to get daily case numbers reported by Austin and Travis County, then made a chart.  Here's what it looks like so far, an exponential increase would be just a straight line:

Hmmm, maybe a knee forming around March 20th, hard to tell.  If we break 100 cases today that's kinda bad, because it means we've gone up an order of magnitude in 8 days. 
"Stay at home" for us kicked in around March 13th, the day that Austin ISD cancelled school.  We are now eight days into it.  The curve should be starting to bend.
 

86 cases in Austin as of 7pm today.

That's a great number if that's it for today...  The previous four days were +18,+17,+4,+17 cases.  Today was +7, lowest number of new cases in six days.

Edited March 24, 2020 by Texas Jeff

[Skipper 6209]

1 minute ago, akhornfan said:

‘Dude’ it’s a component. You can’t only look at one part of the picture. You’re the one extrapolating. I’m saying more testing and more confirmations is going to lead to more hospitalization. 

I'm not a doctor.  Maybe one can weigh in.  Maybe that's plausible for hospital admission generally.  I wouldn't think a huge factor but maybe.  But I can't think whether or not you are confirmed covid positive matters if your health has deteriorated to the point of being admitted to ICU.  If you need a ventilator you need a ventilator.

[HOOKEM4 5044]

2 minutes ago, Texas Jeff said:

That's a great number if that's it for today...  The previous four days were +18,+17,+4,+17 cases.  Today was +7, lowest number of new cases in six days.

[Armybrat 40920]

1 hour ago, HenryJames said:

You laugh, but that’s how I met my Russian online girlfriend.

You paid $10,000 a week to import some poon?

Even Rocko is impressed.

[Skipper 6209]

7 minutes ago, Texas Jeff said:

That's a great number if that's it for today...  The previous four days were +18,+17,+4,+17 cases.  Today was +7, lowest number of new cases in six days.

I can't pull his chart up but I think you probably need to know number of tests taken, what the criteria was for testing, and what the turnaround time is.  I generally know those components for Dallas (just now ramping up testing numbers, loosened criteria today and 3-5 day turnaround for test results and then probably reported the next day) so based on that I don't think the Dallas data will be meaningful to look at for trends for another week.

Edited March 24, 2020 by Skipper

[akhornfan 4]

4 minutes ago, Skipper said:

I'm not a doctor.  Maybe one can weigh in.  Maybe that's plausible for hospital admission generally.  I wouldn't think a huge factor but maybe.  But I can't think whether or not you are confirmed covid positive matters if your health has deteriorated to the point of being admitted to ICU.  If you need a ventilator you need a ventilator.

You don’t need a doctor, just use your head. They’re for sure being more careful with confirmed cases. 

[F250 28826]

4 minutes ago, akhornfan said:

‘Dude’ it’s a component. You can’t only look at one part of the picture. You’re the one extrapolating. I’m saying more testing and more confirmations is going to lead to more hospitalization. 

When you say "lead" it sounds like you are implying cause. An increase in positive tests will likely correlate to more hospitalizations but not cause more hospitalizations.