Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

[Dahobbs 17,534]

3 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I imagine all of these sites are using different sources, different criteria, and all have errors.  The gold standards are if they reconcile back to govt figures at some point.

i also think at some point it’s going to become impossible to fully reconcile and minor discrepancies won’t matter. 

They have all been running at basically the same totals, with minor day-to-day fluctuations based on time zones.  I have no doubt that they will all be similar soon enough and show 775 or > for today. 

[PenelopeWitherspoon 19,101]

So, someone up thread said something about normal death rates. Here in NYC, a person dies every 9 minutes in a normal year. Per the city, we are at a total of 192 deaths. In a normal NYC day, 160 people die. Just thought we ought to put this in perspective especially since there are many times more people with this thing. Especially given as they are making harder and harder to get tested now.

[Surly Bevo 24,908]

40 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Short answer? The biggest thing is the critical hospitalization rate. We didn’t have ERs and ICUs overrun during H1N1. Not even close.
Seriously, this is way different than H1N1.

Also Texas was still get at football so I gave less of a shit at the time

[Nice Guy Eddie 13,512]

Just now, Dahobbs said:

They have all been running at basically the same totals, with minor day-to-day fluctuations based on time zones.  I have no doubt that they will all be similar soon enough and show 775 or > for today. 

I recommend helping out some of the data sites that are running ad free.  The 1point3acres site has over 73m views so they must have some large data bills. A few bucks to help them out is worth it. Not to mention the level of effort to collect data must be heavy.

[atomheartbevo 89,670]

2 hours ago, StruggleBus said:

So the shelter in place in San Antonio is effectively nothing at all. City leaders announced that it wouldn’t be enforced. Good to know.

Realistically speaking, they don’t have the law enforcement to go Wuhan style in any major American city, and the military is busy doing military shit and trying not to travel and get sick (which they aren’t doing very well at, going by a friend’s comments last night).  Like somebody said, this is CYA, and also hoping that enough folks have some common sense to cover for those who don’t.  

It does give them the tools to shut down businesses that probably don’t need to be open.   

[Hmbre97 6,308]

50 minutes ago, Hozz said:

This thread has proven to be a prolific vehicle for people to nominate themselves for ignore.

Question for those capable of talking about the virus without predicting burning bodies in the streets...why didn't anyone freak out over H1N1/Swine Flu in 2009-10 the way people are freaking out now?  https://www.msn.com/en-xl/news/other/h1n1-vs-novel-coronovirus-how-do-they-compare/ar-BB10vk2M according to that it killed 12K in the US, including 6K in a month from mid October 2009 to mid November 2009.  60 million infected 275K hospitalized in a year.  And I don't remember anyone closing anything or it dominating the headlines 24/7.  What is different or what has changed since then?

http://theconversation.com/coronavirus-what-the-2009-swine-flu-pandemic-can-tell-us-about-the-weeks-to-come-134076

[Js1 85,338]

8 minutes ago, squeegeedegg said:

Jfc another one of these

Just

asking

questions

[Surly Bevo 24,908]

4 minutes ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

So, someone up thread said something about normal death rates. Here in NYC, a person dies every 9 minutes in a normal year. Per the city, we are at a total of 192 deaths. In a normal NYC day, 160 people die. Just thought we ought to put this in perspective especially since there are many times more people with this thing. Especially given as they are making harder and harder to get tested now.

Plus the Mets are not going to take the field here in the next week, that alone has to save a few suicides.

[Surly Bevo 24,908]

21 minutes ago, mdmost said:

Jap plays?

No disrespect to the Orientals

[JBJ 3,654]

4 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

I feel like your cases O/U is really high? Even the goal scenario would require a greater than 25% from the previous total. Anyway, we've apparently blown through the death O/U for either scenario. 780 according to 1point3acres. 

https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/

or 775 according to worldometers.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

About a 33% increase from yesterday is correct.

The day-to-day has varied from 0.24* to 0.49*. If it holds to about ~25% for today that is good but might mean nothing.  One day doesn't tell the tale and we've regressed to the mean pretty quickly after each outlier.  I just think it's nice to have something to measure against / cheer to beat.

Deaths are probably going to overshoot my model for a while, like I said their growth has been slower than the confirmed cases, but it's steadily ramping up.  The Oregon nursing home likely skewed the early numbers.

I'll try to post some charts tomorrow.  Pictures are much better.

*Infectious diseases model geometrically, not expotentially, but the rates are roughly the same for a small number infected out of a much larger total population - give about 1 percent.

[Pato del Muerto 52,498]

12 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Between this and Kentuckians trying to buy over 500 cans of Mountain Diabetes at a Kroger’s, it’s been a good day for Kentucky in the news.     Florida is scheming to top those stories.     Let’s just hope aggy doesn’t see an opportunity for another championship to slap on the walll.   

There aren’t all that many kentuckyans, so one of these people must be @Underdog or his kin. 

[NAVY 6,740]

You kids stop your rimming during our pandemic damn it. 

https://nypost.com/2020/03/24/nyc-declares-war-on-rim-jobs-in-graphic-health-department-memo/?utm_campaign=iosapp&utm_source=message_app

[atomheartbevo 89,670]

5 minutes ago, DalTxHornFan said:

12 coronavirus deaths in Texas thus far.  There are 9+ traffic deaths in Texas everyday.  That is considered an acceptable risk.  No highways closed down that I know of.  The coronavirus death toll is a rounding error.  We don't do risk management very well these days.

Traffic accidents aren’t contagious.  Well, at least not outside of foggy or icy roads.    And we do try and prevent them, or at least lessen their impact, pun intended, by using seatbelts, airbags, better construction of vehicles, traffic signals, traffic signs, etc.

[stone oak 639]

Nurse chick I am dating works at main Methodist here in SA. She’s saying the hospital census is incredibly low there (obviously, no elective surgeries) and they are calling off some non-full time nurses temporarily. She said the ICUs are <20% capacity.

Take that whatever way you want, just playing Simone again.

[MNLonghornFUKM 8,817]

About a 33% increase from yesterday is correct.
The day-to-day has varied from 0.24* to 0.49*. If it holds to about ~25% for today that is good but might mean nothing.  One day doesn't tell the tale and we've regressed to the mean pretty quickly after each outlier.  I just think it's nice to have something to measure against / cheer to beat.
Deaths are probably going to overshoot my model for a while, like I said their growth has been slower than the confirmed cases, but it's steadily ramping up.  The Oregon nursing home likely skewed the early numbers.
I'll try to post some charts tomorrow.  Pictures are much better.
*Infectious diseases model geometrically, not expotentially, but the rates are roughly the same for a small number infected out of a much larger total population - give about 1 percent.

I agree. This week towards the middle and end might be bloody ugly


I’m still holding onto next week we start seeing the light in daily cases. Deaths might be ugly but as soon as daily cases from the state, social shutdowns appear, starting around the end of the first week of March the deaths will follow shortly.

Our CFR crept up a tenth of a point to 1.4...but I still believe it’s truly well under 1

[RayDog 682]

Filipino PPE, seriously, it is already that bad in Manila that they are resorting to this.

  

[atomheartbevo 89,670]

For those in the Houston area, and who like data, ABC 13 is collecting any and all data it can.  It’s unfortunately not presented in a nice spreadsheet and has a shitload of ads (and they wonder why people use ad blockers).   It’s a longcat-sized page.

https://abc13.com/5999764/

Edited March 25, 2020 by atomheartbevo

[Hmbre97 6,308]

5 minutes ago, DalTxHornFan said:

12 coronavirus deaths in Texas thus far.  There are 9+ traffic deaths in Texas everyday.  That is considered an acceptable risk.  No highways closed down that I know of.  The coronavirus death toll is a rounding error.  We don't do risk management very well these days.

[Pato del Muerto 52,498]

10 minutes ago, DalTxHornFan said:

12 coronavirus deaths in Texas thus far.  There are 9+ traffic deaths in Texas everyday.  That is considered an acceptable risk.  No highways closed down that I know of.  The coronavirus death toll is a rounding error.  We don't do risk management very well these days.

Does your idea of risk management include forward projecting?  Because that’s why we are doing what we are doing. 

[UT_OB1 2,223]

3 minutes ago, JBJ said:

About a 33% increase from yesterday is correct.

The day-to-day has varied from 0.24* to 0.49*. If it holds to about ~25% for today that is good but might mean nothing.  One day doesn't tell the tale and we've regressed to the mean pretty quickly after each outlier.  I just think it's nice to have something to measure against / cheer to beat.

Deaths are probably going to overshoot my model for a while, like I said their growth has been slower than the confirmed cases, but it's steadily ramping up.  The Oregon nursing home likely skewed the early numbers.

I'll try to post some charts tomorrow.  Pictures are much better.

*Infectious diseases model geometrically, not expotentially, but the rates are roughly the same for a small number infected out of a much larger total population - give about 1 percent.

If you have the nursing home in your data set, wouldn’t it be best to toss it from a predictive standpoint?  Even with today’s totals in, it is still a large chunk of the deaths, and it is not a good representation of the system you are trying to predict (clearly the wrong by age if nothing else)

[Wulaw Horn 19,070]

1 hour ago, Helobious said:

Lol at “found a way around it”. I read the declaration. I had a very hard time thinking of a job that wasn’t covered under their “exempted businesses” section. The listed virtually every type of business on there.

2 places I’ve gone in the last 2 weeks (only places I’ve gone other than grocery store). 1/2 price books and Leslie’s pool supply. 

[atomheartbevo 89,670]

2 minutes ago, RayDog said:

Filipino PPE, seriously, it is already that bad in Manila that they are resorting to this.

  

Yeah, but how tall are they?

[Surly Bevo 24,908]

As always interesting to note this in terms of impact to ILI (which is not drawing a direct correlation to COVID but is probably a tangential indicator)

The counties around NYC still look fucked though.  Given some of the numbers in this if the overshoots on expected ILI are COVID and you put those percents expected vs percent over up against the population of the metro area....yea you get what we are seeing

 

https://healthweather.us/

[InkaUtexas 25,942]

47 minutes ago, mchookem said:

i posted this one earlier, is this it? focused on takeout/delivery 

https://www.seriouseats.com/2020/03/food-safety-and-coronavirus-a-comprehensive-guide.html#covid-on-food

Yep, got your first beer as well. 

[Pato del Muerto 52,498]

1 minute ago, Wulaw Horn said:

2 places I’ve gone in the last 2 weeks (only places I’ve gone other than grocery store). 1/2 price books and Leslie’s pool supply. 

Looking for that chloroquine tank cleaner huh

[InkaUtexas 25,942]

35 minutes ago, Sleep off ugly said:

Happy to help. Checking out HACCP guidelines may be a good idea for anyone who is interested/already volunteering in food distribution.

As for the round, not a big drinker. Throw in a few extra cans/whatevers to the food bank and tell her it’s from an asshole on the internet and we’re even.

Done. 

[Hagbard Celine 10,864]

9 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

You want people that have mild symptoms to be treated with a drug that is in limited supply and unproven? I completely disagree with that. It should be used on people that are doing poorly not someone with a low grade fever.

I thought it was supposed to go to pre-pneumonia symptomatic positives for greatest cost/benefit ratio.

[Beau Vine 54,230]

1 hour ago, Hozz said:

This thread has proven to be a prolific vehicle for people to nominate themselves for ignore.

Question for those capable of talking about the virus without predicting burning bodies in the streets...why didn't anyone freak out over H1N1/Swine Flu in 2009-10 the way people are freaking out now?

[JBJ 3,654]

1 minute ago, UT_OB1 said:

If you have the nursing home in your data set, wouldn’t it be best to toss it from a predictive standpoint?  Even with today’s totals in, it is still a large chunk of the deaths, and it is not a good representation of the system you are trying to predict (clearly the wrong by age if nothing else)

Yes, but then I'd have to track down the day each person was reported to have died.  I'm lazy and it's pretty close to self-correcting at this point anyway.

[atomheartbevo 89,670]

3 hours ago, MissingInAction said:

Also if anyone has any PPE please help me get it to her. She gets one N95s mask per shift.

Stanford says they can be reused.  SIAP

https://m.box.com/shared_item/https%3A%2F%2Fstanfordmedicine.box.com%2Fv%2Fcovid19-PPE-1-1

Quote

 

confirmed all the proposed treatments have killed corona viruses. Labs have no way to test COVID-19 directly and as an accepted protocol, E. Coli is used for testing. We asked what methods can be used to decontaminate the facial mask for reuse safely and without loss tofiltration efficiency. 4C Air confirms using 70 degree C hot air in an oven (typical kitchen-type of oven will do) for 30min, or hot water vapor are additional effective decontamination methods. Please see Table 2 

 

[UT_OB1 2,223]

1 minute ago, JBJ said:

Yes, but then I'd have to track down the day each person was reported to have died.  I'm lazy and it's pretty close to self-correcting at this point anyway.

Yeah, probably will wash out with all the extra data within a week. On the other hand, if you made a model, you’re a nerd. And no self respecting nerd with nothing to do because we’re all shut down right now would let that error persist. 

[dcar00 14,210]

8 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Looking for that chloroquine tank cleaner huh

well that and

[B00M 6,416]

16 minutes ago, DalTxHornFan said:

12 coronavirus deaths in Texas thus far.  There are 9+ traffic deaths in Texas everyday.  That is considered an acceptable risk.  No highways closed down that I know of.  The coronavirus death toll is a rounding error.  We don't do risk management very well these days.

What would you do differently?

Personally, I wish all the folks that don't want to obey social distancing and instead just want to let this run its course could be sent to some island where they can't harm the rest of us. Then we can see how it plays out. You won't need gloves and shit cause the flu is worse right?

New York's hospitals are days from rationing care and Atlanta's aren't far behind... If the numbers remain a "rounding error" here it's because our sacrifices worked.

[crash_davis 23,113]

we should start a CV thread of shame. it was nice weather in austin today. this is the outcome. 

anyone have Thanos on speed dial?

[Dilligas 666]

32 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I recommend helping out some of the data sites that are running ad free.  The 1point3acres site has over 73m views so they must have some large data bills. A few bucks to help them out is worth it. Not to mention the level of effort to collect data must be heavy.

Username definitely checks out

[Wulaw Horn 19,070]

12 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Looking for that chloroquine tank cleaner huh

Lol. Never owned a pool before. Bought in December. Took the cover off and looked so cloudy you could hide a bunch of dead bodies in there. Tested the water quality at 20 percent. 

Spent 300 and worked on the pool for a week and got it to 60%. Wife spent another $200 and worked on the pool for 3 days and it looks perfect. Tomorrow was the day to get water quality tested. Guess that isn’t going to happen. It’s clear, looks clean and smells right and the test at home looks ok- so I guess we are going swimming tomorrow. But won’t ever know if we succeeded at getting to 100% water quality. 

[dcbc 14,484]

3 hours ago, G650 said:

Yeah, but there is a flap valve inside. Not sure if bleach would destroy it. Might not, I just don't know.

Iodophor mixed with water should work.

[B00M 6,416]

Just now, DalTxHornFan said:

Yep. That's the beauty of this whole "shutdown/social distancing" experiment that we are headlong into.  The only thing that is assured it that it will shout down our economy.  If the virus spread slows down -- the "shutdown/social distancing" experiment will be credited.  If it doesn't slow down, we'll all be accused of not appropriately following the "shutdown/social distancing" experiment.  Win/win! 

What would you do differently?

[RayDog 682]

Due to a couple robberies next to the most popular grocery store in the area and lots more looks than usual from guys sizing me up as a target, I have stopped going out at night, and I don't carry my phone, flashlight, or debit/credit cards. I only have enough cash for the outing and carry my Philippines ID separately from my money in case the police stop me to check if I am a resident.

People are getting hungry and I can see their desperation. The city police have been diverted to the checkpoints, so they are no longer around the foreigner areas as they usually are. A few men have rattled the gate to my apartment complex to see if it was unlocked. But they can just climb over from a couple different directions if they want to attempt a break-in. The next few weeks of lockdown will be interesting, and it looks like my girlfriend and I may need to stay home more than we like.

[BurntOrange&White 39,933]

The last two days San Antonio has jumped 12 cases a day just a week ago it was 5.


2 confirmed deaths for San Antonio now.

[smuggs 9,353]

7 minutes ago, crash_davis said:

[crash_davis 23,113]

1 minute ago, RayDog said:

and it looks like my girlfriend and I may need to stay home more than we like.

argue, fuck and eat. in that order. sounds like a good few weeks.

[tx 3 putt 76,958]

3 minutes ago, RayDog said:

Due to a couple robberies next to the most popular grocery store in the area and lots more looks than usual from guys sizing me up as a target, I have stopped going out at night, and I don't carry my phone, flashlight, or debit/credit cards. I only have enough cash for the outing and carry my Philippines ID separately from my money in case the police stop me to check if I am a resident.

People are getting hungry and I can see their desperation. The city police have been diverted to the checkpoints, so they are no longer around the foreigner areas as they usually are. A few men have rattled the gate to my apartment complex to see if it was unlocked. But they can just climb over from a couple different directions if they want to attempt a break-in. The next few weeks of lockdown will be interesting, and it looks like my girlfriend and I may need to stay home more than we like.

Be careful !

[Hagbard Celine 10,864]

7 hours ago, Captainant said:

I'm not trying to twist any words. The drug's shorthand name is chloroquine, and anything you search for "chloroquine" will also include the "phosphate", which is also in the medicinal prescription. Here's the medical facts page on it. 

There's a second and distinct drug that's hydroxychloroquine. Both are used to treat malaria, and both are currently prescribed medicines. 

this post, 7 hours on, has a -7 rep count.  i don't know what happened today, but how can anyone neg rep a post that is 100% solid scientific fact.

neg rep on this post is full aggy.

[BurntOrange&White 39,933]

this post, 7 hours on, has a -7 rep count.  i don't know what happened today, but how can anyone neg rep a post that is 100% solid scientific fact.
neg rep on this post is full aggy.

Because his dumbass was CR’ing it up in here and got dealt with. Fuck him

[landman 559]

5 minutes ago, B00M said:

What would you do differently?

Chicken pox party. Get it over with. 

[Coelenterate Fuccboi 13,091]

1 minute ago, Hagbard Celine said:

i don't know what happened today

Asses were shown and none were good.

[Dahobbs 17,534]

2 minutes ago, DalTxHornFan said:

Isolate vulnerable people and move on.  Burning down the house to rid it of a cock roach infestation is a bad plan.

Sigh. Even the non-vulnerable end up in the hospital at a really high rate. Do you honestly think that there are going to be no economic ramifications to an expanded body count and overwhelmed healthcare system?

[Knighthawk 284]

3 minutes ago, DalTxHornFan said:

Isolate vulnerable people and move on.  Burning down the house to rid it of a cock roach infestation is a bad plan.

This guy gets it.  

[Modessit 5,601]

She looks a little like Pee Wee Herman.

I like to have an adventure with her big top.