Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

[The_Great_Hornsby 3,236]

15 minutes ago, Pasken said:

Doesn't help the surge but might mean we are closer to herd immunity than we think.

Only 14.5% positive tests begs to differ

[triplehorn 2,664]

33 minutes ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

Further, the antibody test is really the one that is needed. Something that can tell you quickly and can be done from home. Guarantee the number of cases in NYC is magnitudes times actual, and they have been around since Jan. NYC has a worse than normal flu season. This is most likely why.

 

 

[achooloco 1,072]

4 minutes ago, DalTxHornFan said:

Texas wasn't doing a "hug a chinaman" event like New York was doing at the lunar new year last month.  Texas is not progressing at the same rate.

We were? Never saw anything for that. Got a link? I could have missed it. Or are you wrong and thinking about italy? 

also to borrow your expert analysis from before, it could be that Texas is not “officially” progressing at the same rate bc you aren’t testing at the same rate ny is. If texas never ramps up there testing then poof, they’ll never progress at the same rate. 

Unless you got a credible link for why you think Texas won’t progress the same way ny is (aside from refusing to test people), every other model shows it will. But I’ll read a real link if you got one. 

[cactusflinthead 27,598]

4 minutes ago, triplehorn said:

 

Huh. Seems like we should have had these a while back. 

[Pato del Muerto 52,498]

54 minutes ago, DalTxHornFan said:

Thanks.  Obviously, I am talking about comparative risks of everyday life just to make a point of how overblown this reaction seems to be.  Of course a simple comparison of these 12 actual deaths to the expected annual deaths from the normal annual flu virus would blow all that comparative analysis away. 

Why are you comparing expected to actual, instead of expected to expected?

[NorthLoop 14,203]

15 minutes ago, DalTxHornFan said:

Texas wasn't doing a "hug a chinaman" event like New York was doing at the lunar new year last month.  Texas is not progressing at the same rate.

Ok I think we can ban this turd now that he's just making shit up

[ChiTownDoc 21,154]

So we need a CR thread.  A nonCR thread.  And now a ‘I don’t believe in science thread’.  JFC

[Bevo 13,577]

Just now, achooloco said:

We were? Never saw anything for that. Got a link? I could have missed it. Or are you wrong and thinking about italy? 

also to borrow your expert analysis from before, it could be that Texas is not “officially” progressing at the same rate bc you aren’t testing at the same rate ny is. If texas never ramps up there testing then poof, they’ll never progress at the same rate. 

Unless you got a credible link for why you think Texas won’t progress the same way ny is (aside from refusing to test people), every other model shows it will. But I’ll read a real link if you got one. 

I'm not going to argue about disease progression but it is pretty difficult to compare NY to TX. NYC where all the cases are is 302.6 mi² while Texas is 268,597 mi².

[Murfdogg21 4,412]

I’m calling horseshit on that “Stanford Medicine” cleaning of PPE story. First, it said they used E. Coli as a test surrogate for CV....E Coli is a fucking bacteria!

We know/believe that soap is more lethal to the active virus than alcohol or bleach. Unknown lethality to heat, UV, or ethylene oxide. Cooking the shit out of the masks may damage filter material that decreases its effectiveness at blocking vita particles on the next wear. I already suggested to the UT-Dell crowd source board that they look into steam autoclave (because every hospital has them) and check the mask filter porosity after repeated cycles; or maybe as simple as >100C (but not too hot) soapy water to get more effective surfactant activity. The UV won’t penetrate beyond the outermost facing surface of the porous mesh so that’s probably out. Ethylene oxide may not be readily available in hospitals, works on most viruses but is untested with CV, and has very low risk of toxicity to skin if residuals accumulate. 

[MissingInAction 25,076]

Seems the more whiskey the more irrational I become.

Gonna sleep a while.  It is fine..

[Dahobbs 17,534]

6 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Why are you comparing expected to actual, instead of expected to expected?

 

 

[bob in houston 184]

@DalTxHornFan

I created a thread just for you here

 

 

Please go there to debate this topic and don't post in this thread any more

And everyone else, when someone comes in here with this kind of shit please report and DON"T FUCKING ENGAGE WITH THEM

Please go to the thread above to debate with them

[triplehorn 2,664]

11 minutes ago, cactusflinthead said:

Huh. Seems like we should have had these a while back. 

That Ho article is good, and accessible.  He also offered a word of caution about rushing vaccines:

"And, of course, people are working on vaccines. A lot of companies are working on vaccines and those vaccines are at various stages. A couple are within weeks of entering human testing and that's quite, quite remarkable. There is one thing about vaccines, though: Some of the experiments previously done on SARS suggested that when animals developed antibodies and then were given the virus, they had greater lung injury due to the presence of the antibodies. The scientific community would have to resolve that issue quickly and its resolution would either halt the current approaches or unleash them to move full speed ahead.  [cont.]"

^^^ it's a contributing reason, but he lays out multiple variables that contribute an unlikely solution in the next several months.  At home antibody tests  could radically shift our understanding of the pandemic, where we stand as a population, and have that inform our path.  We have to have that data asap.  I'm still holding out hope with effective med cocktails, but increasingly think it will hinge on application happening as early in the infection as possible.  Of course that depends on mass access to testing and rapid turnaround.  Ho did have some positive observations about how fast mobilization is happening, but we're about to take some heavy near term lumps.

[atomheartbevo 89,668]

1 hour ago, Rip76 said:

Jackson Browne was diagnosed.  

siap

Kenny Rogers, dead last week (not cv as far as I know).   Jackson Browne infected.   

Is there a Don Henley curse rearing its head?   Motherfucker better stay away from Linda Ronstadt.

[Pato del Muerto 52,498]

5 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Kenny Rogers, dead last week (not cv as far as I know).   Jackson Browne infected.   

Is there a Don Henley curse rearing its head?   Motherfucker better stay away from Linda Ronstadt.

She’s probably somebody’s baby alright

Edited March 25, 2020 by Pato del Muerto
Killin it with the old school music references today

[wild_turkey 3,159]

Isolate vulnerable people and move on. 

I’m gradually shifting towards this line of thinking.

Social distancing and stay-at-home are great in theory but terrible in practice because a large portion of the population isn’t playing along. Let’s see....

DFW shuts down but lots of surrounding rural counties refuse to issue similar orders because “they don’t have cases” (their cases haven’t been tested or diagnosed). So in 2-3 weeks they get overwhelmed with cases and their hospitals are full and they want to transfer to DFW hospitals which are already full, despite DFW citizens quarantining for weeks prior. Then what? Fuck those other counties that selfishly think they aren’t affected currently. Get on board now.

Not only that, counties issue SIP or stay-at-home orders but 80% of businesses find loopholes to deem themselves essential because greed. Car dealerships? Oil and gas? Residential construction? Give me a break. It should be healthcare, police, fire, utilities. I don’t care if a car doesn’t get sold or a house isn’t built on time. Those people will survive for a while without it.

And certain everyday citizens apparently don’t think these orders apply to them. We walked our dogs today and see people around the neighborhood standing in front yards socializing. People seem to think it’s okay for their kids to play with other kids because their friends don’t look sick or what? They are still oblivious to the asymptomatic yet contagious incubation period? They think it’s okay in small groups because apparently COVID-19 only spreads amongst big groups? WTF people.

There’s just too much selfishness in American society for this to work. Too many people seem to find ways to justify their own exemption. These half measures punish the cities, businesses, or individuals that are complying without any ramifications for those who don’t. Then we all pay the price together.

If we’re gonna quarantine let’s all do it together. If we can’t do that then maybe we just tell high risk people to stay at home and everyone else do their normal thing. I realize many high risk people will still be exposed but I also think that’s on the individual at a certain point just like every other health decision that we leave up to the individual.

Not trying to be callous and I definitely don’t know the right path here, just frustrated at the lack of coordination and agreement at all levels on this. There is a significant cost associated with stay-at-home orders and that cost is being paid unequally at the moment. Even if it is paid equally, the eventual damage to the economy, unemployment, poverty, homelessness, physical health, and mental health of our society may very well outweigh whatever lives are saved by ongoing quarantine measures.

[triplehorn 2,664]

4 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Kenny Rogers, dead last week (not cv as far as I know).   Jackson Browne infected.   

Is there a Don Henley curse rearing its head?   Motherfucker better stay away from Linda Ronstadt.

wonder what the "human antidote" is up to these days

Spoiler

 

[Hmmm 155]

7 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Kenny Rogers, dead last week (not cv as far as I know).   Jackson Browne infected.   

Is there a Don Henley curse rearing its head?   Motherfucker better stay away from Linda Ronstadt.

there is some conspiracy theory surrounding celebrities and COVID-19.  probably not suitable for this thread.

[clapclapclap 9,000]

33 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

So we need a CR thread.  A nonCR thread.  And now a ‘I don’t believe in science thread’.  JFC

And an 'I don't believe in superstars, organic food, or foreign cars' thread.

Edited March 25, 2020 by clapclapclap
And this lamp.  And this ashtray.  And this paddlegame....

[Modessit 5,601]

Jackson Browne was diagnosed.  
 
siap

Well, that's a slap in the face.

[Hank Scorpio 17,729]

 

[Hmmm 155]

3 minutes ago, Modessit said:

1 hour ago, Rip76 said:

Jackson Browne was diagnosed.  
 
siap

Well, that's a slap in the face.

from someone who would know. yes, yes, it is.

[atomheartbevo 89,668]

2 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

but we need to have huge cross sections of everyone tested to figure this shit out so we can do a rational cost benefit analysis after 2 weeks are up and before deciding what to do during the next wave. 

It’d be good to have a huge cross-section just to see if anything jumps out - certain practices people engage in, or professions that were either impacted, or potentially and unknowingly helped spread it (outside of healthcare obviously).   We had the attorney in NYC who was responsible for 50+ cases.  The Austrian ski resort that helped spread it around Europe.   Some areas, we have accurate heat maps of where they started seeing cases, and where those cases tended to bloom.

We have supercomputers looking at the medical/biological aspect of the virus, and surely they are plugging in all of this data  

The experts are saying we won’t have a vaccine by the fall, when it’s possible it will ramp up again, but we may have some treatments.  

What if we don’t have vaccines by then, but we have treatments, and we also know people in certain professions may catch it at a higher rate, and may help spread it as a result.   Or maybe there are certain practices at home or at work  that helped spread it.   We provide hand sanitizer to those folks and work on the hand washing thing   Maybe we can adjust those practices That were helping to spread it, in some way  to help cut down the spread.   

Combine that increased awareness with, or without, possible treatments, and all of the sudden we don’t have to issue stay-at-home orders, and we don’t have to shut down businesses, and while it could get rough at the hospital temporarily, but maybe not “we are rationing ICU beds” rough.

It’s going to be interesting to see the papers coming out of UT and other schools over this.   Kinda want to read the study that they did showing we will run out of hospital beds in 3-4 weeks if Austin doesn’t buckle down a little more.

I don’t know what you do about people like South Austin’s mom who was a super spreader, even before this virus.  

Edited March 25, 2020 by atomheartbevo

[Texas Jeff 1,945]

Texas has a dashboard a lot like the Johns Hopkins dashboard, but not as informative (no data over time):

https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/ed483ecd702b4298ab01e8b9cafc8b83

Using that data, right now 79 of 715 cases (11%) are in Travis Co.  But, Travis Co has about 4% of the state's population.

So, is Travis Co simply more disease-ridden than the rest of the state or simply testing more and finding more cases?  Honestly, I could go either way on that one...

 

Edited March 25, 2020 by Texas Jeff
I screwed up the math

[The_Great_Hornsby 3,236]

5 minutes ago, Texas Jeff said:

Texas has a dashboard a lot like the Johns Hopkins dashboard, but not as informative (no data over time):

https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/ed483ecd702b4298ab01e8b9cafc8b83

Using that data, right now 79 of 715 cases (19%) are in Travis Co.  But, Travis Co has about 4% of the state's population.

So, is Travis Co simply more disease-ridden than the rest of the state or simply testing more and finding more cases?  Honestly, I could go either way on that one...

 

 

In Texas, only 5.4% of tests are positive, thats almost a national low

[Wulaw Horn 19,070]

4 minutes ago, Texas Jeff said:

Texas has a dashboard a lot like the Johns Hopkins dashboard, but not as informative (no data over time):

https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/ed483ecd702b4298ab01e8b9cafc8b83

Using that data, right now 79 of 715 cases (19%) are in Travis Co.  But, Travis Co has about 4% of the state's population.

So, is Travis Co simply more disease-ridden than the rest of the state or simply testing more and finding more cases?  Honestly, I could go either way on that one...

 

 

My guess is some from column A and some from Column B. 

Population density in Austin is obviously higher than suburban or rural counties. I’m sure they are testing at best higher rates. And, Austin has a bunch of affluent travelers and is a destination city for travelers themselves with tourism, bar scene, UT, the government etc. I have to imagine it’s both factors playing a role. 

[The_Great_Hornsby 3,236]

Places like NY and NJ have 30+% positive test rates, the virus is not out of control here in Texas

[Texas Jeff 1,945]

Sorry, I messed up the math..  11% in Travis Co with 4% of the population...

[Dahobbs 17,534]

5 minutes ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

Places like NY and NJ have 30+% positive test rates, the virus is not out of control here in Texas

I'm really hoping that is true. If so, the major population centers may have shutdown in time to keep this manageable. 

[The_Great_Hornsby 3,236]

1 minute ago, Dahobbs said:

I'm really hoping that is true. If so, the major population centers may have shutdown in time to keep this manageable. 

I think so, all we need to do is slow this thing down for a few weeks and everything should go much smoother than whats happening in New York/New Jersey. 

[futureman 22,462]

sorry but I didn’t see a thread dedicated to the austin lockdown and I want to know if I can take my dog to zilker tomorrow morning without getting tasered by a team of swat officers in hazmat suits.  

[MissingInAction 25,076]

Maann   werk8n from hom sportn the portin folks is goosd for nw..im got ua fuckefz..fuu stil hheerreee

[atomheartbevo 89,668]

20 minutes ago, wild_turkey said:

And certain everyday citizens apparently don’t think these orders apply to them. We walked our dogs today and see people around the neighborhood standing in front yards socializing. People seem to think it’s okay for their kids to play with other kids because their friends don’t look sick or what? They are still oblivious to the asymptomatic yet contagious incubation period? They think it’s okay in small groups because apparently COVID-19 only spreads amongst big groups? WTF people

For those of us following this thread since January and February, we’ve seen plenty of examples of people getting hit hard in all age groups, healthy and ye olde underlying causes alike. 

Your typical American has probably only seen highlights.   China, Italy, the cruise ships, can give off the impression that it only infects or  hurts the olds.    The stats can give off a false sense of security.  Plenty believe they won’t catch it because hey, only a thousand folks have it in Texas.

It'll be interesting to see how these stats hold up here in Travis County as testing increases.

https://www.kxan.com/news/local/travis-county/56-of-travis-county-covid-19-patients-are-younger-than-40-hsem-says/

56% of Travis County COVID-19 patients are younger than 40, HSEM says

• 0-9 — 1 case
• 10-19 — 1 case
• 20-29 — 27 cases
• 30-39 — 26 cases
• 40-49 — 15 cases
• 50-59 — 14 cases
• 60-69 — 10 cases
• 70-79 — 3 cases
• 80 and up — 1 case

Now obviously, most of those are not hospitalized, and that’s only a 100 cases or so, but that will double soon enough (and hell, we know plenty who have had it never even knew it), and there are always plenty of people who have those underlying issues.

 

[futureman 22,462]

2 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

The stats can give off a false sense of security.

wouldn’t you call it a real sense of security?  

[atomheartbevo 89,668]

5 minutes ago, futureman said:

sorry but I didn’t see a thread dedicated to the austin lockdown and I want to know if I can take my dog to zilker tomorrow morning without getting tasered by a team of swat officers in hazmat suits.  

They are keeping the parks and trails open for now.   

 

[Radical Larry 28,619]

10 minutes ago, MissingInAction said:

Maann   werk8n from hom sportn the portin folks is goosd for nw..im got ua fuckefz..fuu stil hheerreee

Google, please translate.

[MissingInAction 25,076]

Gentlemen, I  must retire. 

Good luck and God bless.

[dcar00 14,210]

32 minutes ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

In Texas, only 5.4% of tests are positive, thats almost a national low

thats cause we're like, good I don't really like my fucking neighbors anyway and stay off my lawn.  half the state probably went to their lake house or ranch.

[atomheartbevo 89,668]

58 minutes ago, Hmmm said:

celebrities and COVID-19.

 Many travel extensively by air, pass through plenty of hotels, airports, etc,  All the NBA positives, just need one or two, and well, there’s a reason they are constantly mopping the courts.  

And you have situations like this

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/24/europe/austria-ski-resort-ischgl-coronavirus-intl/index.html

Quote

On March 7 -- three days after Iceland's warning -- a 36-year-old bartender at Kitzloch tested positive. Twenty-two of the bartender's contacts were quarantined, 15 of whom have since tested positive for Covid-19, the provincial government confirmed in press releases.

Oh college days...

Quote

"We realized that they exchanged saliva because they were playing beer pong," using their mouths, he said, although he did not single out any specific bars where the game took place. The game involved spitting ping pong balls out of their mouths into beer glasses, and those balls were then reused by other people.

Quote

"That means that there was at least one patient who had a very high viral load, and while most people will infect two to three others on average, these people can transmit the disease to 40, 50, or 80 people." Redlberger-Fritz said that this may have cut the lead time for authorities to react by several days.

And we just had spring break along the Texas coast. 

Back in January or February, a bunch of us in this very thread were thinking either Wuhan was completely overrun (narrator: it was) or that there were one or more super spreaders working at the Wuhan airport (narrator: there were) in roles where they directly interacted with folks, and passing it on who knows how many travelers.  

Edited March 25, 2020 by atomheartbevo

[atomheartbevo 89,668]

Austin ISD Parents, check your emails

”In response to the Stay Home - Work Safe Order issued by the City of Austin and Travis county, AISD schools are closed through April 13. Even though our schools are not open, we will facilitate continuous learning opportunities for our students. Austin ISD staff and families should prepare for schools to be closed for a longer period of time.”

They are working on the online education stuff, but it’s a nightmare to switch an entire pre-k through 12 system to online.  Wife being in education, and tons of teacher friends, and speculation is all over, including ideally things opening up on the 14th, and just extending a few weeks iinto the summer, all the way to online only for rest of the year.  I do know they are having teachers reach out to the kids and their parents, and they are offering optional “learning opportunities” (aka doing your normal homework, but through Google Docs or whatever).     I do know UT is working with its teaching/etc. students who were in the schools for student teaching, etc. to make sure they could complete their requirements   

@Larry T. Spider Probably has more info.  Or maybe it’s secret, so not.  

[Shaggy3.0 1,695]

Just drove from Jester/2222 to 360 heading south. Not a single car in the road until I hit 71 and south lamar. Eerie.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[MNLonghornFUKM 8,817]

Wow.. US saw a 2100 daily case drop from Monday.


Deaths spiked tho 90ish


1point3 uses CDT and worldo uses GMT. Might have some overlapping late reported cases since they have 2k more cases for Tuesday than 1point3

[RollLeft 5,045]

10 hours ago, BurntEyes said:

Linda Hildago at, 28 years of age seems extremely rude.

I have no clue about her policies and frankly don't care.

Wheel. Motherfucking. House.

 

Username checks out.  Would not.  Broads in their 20's who look like they are in their late 40's no bueno.  She's past her prime at 28.  

[Rimbo 25,935]

So, the school closing here in San Diego is not entirely expiring on April 6th.

Sounds like the new plan is to train all the teachers how to use Zoom, get everyone online for a few more weeks, and then school will start April 26 --

-- still remote.

So basically the students and teachers are getting in touch with each other now, and then 3 weeks of "trial period" to work out the kinks, then home ed, baby.

Interesting times.

[RayDog 682]

I just found out a friend of mine died a few days ago from an uncertain cause. He was working as a Lyft driver in Dallas, but was in Colorado buying some edibles before his trip back to the Philippines. He was 50 and made a bundle shorting the market the past few weeks, and was going to retire and marry a 20 year old Filipina. I had urged him to quit driving 10 days ago.

I guess I will hear if it was the virus eventually.

[atomheartbevo 89,668]

Fort Hood figuring out who is essential and who can work/stay at home.  

https://www.statesman.com/news/20200324/fort-hood-shifts-to-lsquoessential-staffingrsquo-in-response-to-coronavirus-outbreak

The soldiers is in the 3rd Cavalry, and a part of III Corps, but not from the same unit that came back from Korea in late a February.   And said soldier lives off post, so will be interesting to see where he picked it up.  

[atomheartbevo 89,668]

4 minutes ago, Rimbo said:

So, the school closing here in San Diego is not entirely expiring on April 6th.

Sounds like the new plan is to train all the teachers how to use Zoom, get everyone online for a few more weeks, and then school will start April 26 --

-- still remote.

So basically the students and teachers are getting in touch with each other now, and then 3 weeks of "trial period" to work out the kinks, then home ed, baby.

Interesting times.

Yep, they are doing Zoom here in Austin, at least some schools.   It’s going to be damned tough for some parts of Austin, but the district does have Chromebooks and tablets, maybe even enough for the kids who don’t have computers at home, and they are trying to work out internet service for those kids.   I’m guessing somebody like Spectrum will step in as well to help.

Speaking of partners, HEB has been working with AISD  to get meals to kids who need them.   HEB continues to be amazing.  

[Iceman 2,713]

40 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Fort Hood figuring out who is essential and who can work/stay at home.  

https://www.statesman.com/news/20200324/fort-hood-shifts-to-lsquoessential-staffingrsquo-in-response-to-coronavirus-outbreak

The soldiers is in the 3rd Cavalry, and a part of III Corps, but not from the same unit that came back from Korea in late a February.   And said soldier lives off post, so will be interesting to see where he picked it up.  

 

The interesting discussions are what is being planned downstream if CV doesn't break/ turn for improvement.  Like some unprecedented, ho-lee shit stuff...  I  hope it never happens.

 

Edited March 25, 2020 by Iceman

[InkaUtexas 25,941]

36 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Yep, they are doing Zoom here in Austin, at least some schools.   It’s going to be damned tough for some parts of Austin, but the district does have Chromebooks and tablets, maybe even enough for the kids who don’t have computers at home, and they are trying to work out internet service for those kids.   I’m guessing somebody like Spectrum will step in as well to help.

Speaking of partners, HEB has been working with AISD  to get meals to kids who need them.   HEB continues to be amazing.  

San Marcos starts back Monday. Rumor from some teachers is most of April will be online and there is a good chance HS will not go back. Makes sense. They go back for AP exams which college board already said are online this year, and then finals. Spectrum is working with the ISD for free access for kids. Hot Spots, etc. Lunches are rocking for free, kids still need to go and pick them up. But the Food Bank is now involved. HEB and Target are kicking ass. 

America Bitches. 

[Iceman 2,713]

My understanding is that the schools are still doing lunches in order to maintain the reception of funding.  Someone correct me if I'm wrong.

 

Either way, it's cool to see the food still going out to students.