Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

[Beau Vine 54230]

Just now, mdmost said:

Wouldn't that be offset by large corporate buildings and offices not running their AC all day long?

Are you suggesting that it's actually possible for large office buildings in Texas to not set their AC at 60 degrees in the summer?

[Pasken 1309]

2 minutes ago, mdmost said:

Wouldn't that be offset by large corporate buildings and offices not running their AC all day long?

Not at all.

[mdmost 43001]

Ha. We all have to make sacrifices. This is why I chuckle when people suggest schools might push the school year into the summer. No way are most Texas school districts going to cool those buildings during July. 

[Pato del Muerto 52498]

2 minutes ago, GRHorn said:

Agree x1000. This is a great idea.  I think a shocking number would already be positive. 

And again, either this isn’t the case or actual % hospitalization is way too high.  We can hope it’s the latter, but is there any evidence either way yet?

[Hawndoh 2386]

4 minutes ago, mdmost said:

Wouldn't that be offset by large corporate buildings and offices not running their AC all day long?

I bet a lot of those will still be running the AC to an empty building.

[Brisketexan 105142]

1 minute ago, GRHorn said:

Agree x1000. This is a great idea.  I think a shocking number would already be positive. 

I agree.  The overwhelming challenge with all of these concepts -- antibody testing, deploying a vaccine -- is numbers.  We don't need a million of these, or 50 million.  We literally need BILLIONS (China and India are damned well gonna want in).  Hell, if we managed to do it all ourselves locally....we still need 350 million tests and/or vaccines.  That....is a crapton.  As a comparison, by Feb 23, 2018, the US had shipped out 155 million flu vaccines -- less than half of the number we'd want for COVID.

[Modessit 5601]

"You can pry my air conditioning unit from my cold, dead hands!" - every Texan

I should order another motor-run capacitor just to have one on hand.

[ChiTownDoc 21154]

22 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

No shit my man. Preaching to the choir here, but at the same time, you haven't heard a whisper of it mentioned. I have to assume it's a complete afterthought and we won't hear anything about it for weeks or months from now. I'm hoping you'll tell me I'm completely wrong and you've heard of at least private companies working on it, and that it hasn't been forgotten in the medical and immunological communities. 

Additionally, and correct me if I'm wrong, but if people showed immunity it would also mean doctors and nurses could potentially be treating patients without PPE and without fear and concern for their lives. That alone would remove HUGE levels of stress from our care workers who qualify. But god forbid we make their lives any easier right now...

Man, I'm out there yelling at top of my lungs.  There are things in the works...I'm hoping it comes to the forefront in next several weeks.  As for PPE...you'd feel better but some people can get infected twice and another bigger issue -  'it can be on you' (layman terms) then carried to someone else in many cases so we'd keep universal precautions even with antibodies.  But overall, most of what you're saying is correct.  Even if you wore PPE at least you have peace of mind that if it fails you're not getting it.  

But fuck the details - lets get antibody testing out there.  

[ChiTownDoc 21154]

8 minutes ago, GRHorn said:

Agree x1000. This is a great idea.  I think a shocking number would already be positive. 

Zero doubt, 10's of thousands.  Also some facilities are saying zero doctors allowed.  Just essential nursing - if doctors showed they already had it you'd allow better access to physicians as well.  

[JBJ 3654]

On 3/24/2020 at 12:47 PM, JBJ said:

3/24 Update

Today's O/U: 58,160 cases - 735 deaths.

Todays O/U for the "goal scenario": 56,038 cases - 709 deaths.

Total cases yesterday were very good - deaths less so.

Today's O/U: 73,171 cases - 1040 deaths

Today's "Goal:" 70,458 cases - 909 deaths

The 10-day infectivity is 0.34 and 5-day is 0.32.   Not much to see there.

Today looks decent so far.

[Dahobbs 17534]

48 minutes ago, Loco said:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-22/one-third-of-coronavirus-cases-may-show-no-symptom-scmp-reports

 

that's great news if it holds up

It's sort of a good news/bad news scenario. Good news, a lot of people will not get very sick or sick at all. Bad news, it is going to be much harder to identify those infected and control the spread without a massive increase in testing. We can't just test people that are symptomatic, otherwise the people that aren't are going to continue to spread the virus. 

[Newdoc 3440]

54 minutes ago, gecko said:

There is a whole bunch of "this could kill everybody", and a whole bunch of "this may not be as bad as we thought" predictions out there.  It's probably somewhere in the middle, but I don't know which to believe.  I know what I want to believe.

This is where the media comes in and it doesn’t matter if it is a left or right bias. Quite frankly they really suck at reporting medical stories. I have been interviewed several times and I have to keep it very simple so the reporters do not screw it up.

You have reporters with journalism degrees, not science degrees and a systematic rush to get news out there that gets clicks and views so we are going to get the most sensational headlines. That does not make for a good combo when looking for accurate data and facts. This is compounded due to the fact that we do not have good epidemiological data on this disease and everybody is trying to pin a tail on the donkey that is moving all over the place.

I would take the doom and gloom with a grain of salt. You’re going to see every emergency room doctor and nurse that winds up sick in the ICU on the news. When has death and worst case scenarios ever been tempered by our national media?  It doesn’t mean that everyone is getting sick. But it still means you still better be careful.

[Wally Pryor 5261]

COVID?   

Not when it's 90+ and the Poor's Pool is open. 

 

[Digdogger 1344]

42 minutes ago, drt said:

Germany also has widespread testing for anyone who wants it.

Jews, Gypsies and the gays are being given higher priority for testing 

[InkaUtexas 25942]

1 minute ago, Wally Pryor said:

COVID?   

Not when it's 90+ and the Poor's Pool is open. 

 

So not just the homeless taking a bath? 

[Sbbruin 21853]

43 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Yeah, I'm not falling for that one!

Just need to shower off first.

[Hate 20108]

29 minutes ago, gsoda3 said:

cuomo today said of the people who have the virus 20% need hospitalization and of those hospitalized 3% require intensive care.  

@Loco, this is what I've heard and I'm pretty sure that this has been the idea for a couple of weeks now.  I've read so much and the news is moving so fast that I can't recall or find where is saw this "statistic" but I do know that I did not make it up.  I'm sure it has been alluded to many times in this very thread, but good luck trying to find where.

[Dahobbs 17534]

4 minutes ago, JBJ said:

Total cases yesterday were very good - deaths less so.

Today's O/U: 73,171 cases - 1040 deaths

Today's "Goal:" 70,458 cases - 909 deaths

The 10-day infectivity is 0.34 and 5-day is 0.32.   Not much to see there.

Today looks decent so far.

I think the new case flat lining is from the efforts of New York to slow the spread. New York, being farther along the curve than everyone else, has a disproportionate impact on the overall numbers right now. But, my concern is that other states are starting to ramp up (hi Louisiana) and will start accelerating the daily case increase back up. It'd be interesting if you could break up your model by states or even just general regions (or maybe just have separate models for NY and everyone else). 

[Buzzrock 14920]

Got my first friend in ATL who has it. She’s just about over it and didn’t have to be hospitalized but she said it really sucked. Mid-50s lady.

[Loco 3752]

2 minutes ago, Hate said:

@Loco, this is what I've heard and I'm pretty sure that this has been the idea for a couple of weeks now.  I've read so much and the news is moving so fast that I can't recall or find where is saw this "statistic" but I do know that I did not make it up.  I'm sure it has been alluded to many times in this very thread, but good luck trying to find where.

I wasn't calling you out I was looking for info on something that seemed like some good news.  It's all good

[akhornfan 4]

42 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

England is one week behind Spain. They are climbing

I think it’s starting to prove out that this type of thinking isn’t really playing out. Different places are seeing different trajectories, some better/worse but not everything is on a ‘Italy pace’

[Hate 20108]

I wasn't calling you out I was looking for info on something that seemed like some good news.  It's all good

Absolutely. I knew you weren’t, but I didn’t want you to think I was pulling numbers out of the air. I’m pretty sure that number has been talked about for a couple of weeks and may even be based off of the experiences in other countries. I know we talked about it on this thread, but I have no ideas how long ago that was.

[akhornfan 4]

18 minutes ago, JBJ said:

Total cases yesterday were very good - deaths less so.

Today's O/U: 73,171 cases - 1040 deaths

Today's "Goal:" 70,458 cases - 909 deaths

The 10-day infectivity is 0.34 and 5-day is 0.32.   Not much to see there.

Today looks decent so far.

I know you said you would, but can you show this model out past just one day?  Curious where you show it going. . . 
Thanks for doing this - it’s interesting to watch.

[VABuckeye 2472]

2 minutes ago, akhornfan said:

I think it’s starting to prove out that this type of thinking isn’t really playing out. Different places are seeing different trajectories, some better/worse but not everything is on a ‘Italy pace’

Enough large first world countries are at or over 5% that it's a very concerning trend.  Honestly, I see our rate of death much higher in a week to 10 days when the progression of the virus is factored in.

[akhornfan 4]

2 minutes ago, VABuckeye said:

Enough large first world countries are at or over 5% that it's a very concerning trend.  Honestly, I see our rate of death much higher in a week to 10 days when the progression of the virus is factored in.

I didn’t say it’s not concerning, but rather we’re not seeing everything looking just like Italy. 

[Cheeseweasel 26438]

17 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

So not just the homeless taking a bath? 

Both? Both.

[SydneyCarton 48106]

45 minutes ago, Pasken said:

Good lord, what the hell is going to happen to the electric grid this summer if people are still working from home and all running the AC? Can we fire up that bio fuel plant we just bought? 

It could definitely be a really big shitshow. ERCOT is already forecasting a very, very hot summer.

That being said, if any industrial operations are shut down on the C&I side, it would more than make up for the addition of residential load. 

[Coelenterate Fuccboi 13091]

28 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

I agree.  The overwhelming challenge with all of these concepts -- antibody testing, deploying a vaccine -- is numbers.  We don't need a million of these, or 50 million.  We literally need BILLIONS (China and India are damned well gonna want in).  Hell, if we managed to do it all ourselves locally....we still need 350 million tests and/or vaccines.  That....is a crapton.  As a comparison, by Feb 23, 2018, the US had shipped out 155 million flu vaccines -- less than half of the number we'd want for COVID.

Start with the 50+ crowd for the vaccines and let the younger crowd continue to establish an immunity to it, without the immunization, until enough could be produced for everyone.

7 minutes ago, Loco said:

I wasn't calling you out I was looking for info on something that seemed like some good news.  It's all good

This was one of the big reasons many of us were not focused on the virus testing. A virus with that high of a percentage of carriers not showing symptoms is impossible to track once it’s been spreading around the country for a month before testing begins. It’s best just to assume everyone is a carrier and practice social distancing for a determined amount of time so the virus runs its course in those infected. In my opinion, at this stage in the game, testing should only be used in hospitalized cases if there is a specific treatment necessary. The antibody test is what’s needed at this point, to determine who already beat this fucker and can get on with their lives.

[Hate 20108]

So I finally found it.  This is the post from Wally Fairway back on March 13th.

And here is the chart.

[VABuckeye 2472]

The poster on TigerDroppings has decided to go to the hospital.  Hoping for a speedy recovery for him.  His oxygen level is at 90 and he's 44, a former heavy smoker and has COPD.

[CHEF DIESEL 126]

Hot spots in Dallas County are University Park/Preston Hollow in the affluent part of the county which might mean SMU students or just wealthy folks access to health care. Or they travel a lot and brought it home with them. Interesting it is skewing towards wealthy neighborhoods in Dallas County:

 

[Beau Vine 54230]

Just now, VABuckeye said:

The poster on TigerDroppings has decided to go to the hospital.  Hoping for a speedy recovery for him.  His oxygen level is at 90 and he's 44, a former heavy smoker and has COPD.

I'm also sure he's in tip-top shape and adheres to a vegan diet.

[Brisketexan 105142]

Just now, CHEF DIESEL said:

Hot spots in Dallas County are University Park/Preston Hollow in the affluent part of the county which might mean SMU students or just wealthy folks access to health care. Or they travel a lot and brought it home with them. Interesting it is skewing towards wealthy neighborhoods in Dallas County:

 

Being that a good number of the positives we're hearing about are in people who recently traveled to Colorado for skiing....this would match up with that demographic.

I find it kind of fascinating that both the ski resorts in Italy and in Colorado look to have played an outsized role in spreading this disease.

[Beau Vine 54230]

Just now, CHEF DIESEL said:

Hot spots in Dallas County are University Park/Preston Hollow in the affluent part of the county which might mean SMU students or just wealthy folks access to health care. Or they travel a lot and brought it home with them. Interesting it is skewing towards wealthy neighborhoods in Dallas County:

Highland Park HS students travel by getting on airplanes and flying to different countries during spring break. Wilmer-Hutchings HS students travel by walking down to the park during spring break. 

[InkaUtexas 25942]

Not local related, but a bit important. Please don't hate me for posting this... Not commenting, just passing it on! 

 

 

[Hagbard Celine 10864]

8 minutes ago, Casual Encounter said:

Start with the 50+ crowd for the vaccines and let the younger crowd continue to establish an immunity to it, without the immunization, until enough could be produced for everyone.

This was one of the big reasons many of us were not focused on the virus testing. A virus with that high of a percentage of carriers not showing symptoms is impossible to track once it’s been spreading around the country for a month before testing begins. It’s best just to assume everyone is a carrier and practice social distancing for a determined amount of time so the virus runs its course in those infected. In my opinion, at this stage in the game, testing should only be used in hospitalized cases if there is a specific treatment necessary. The antibody test is what’s needed at this point, to determine who already beat this fucker and can get on with their lives.

EXCEPT....  the hydroxychlorquine-azithromycin combo is rumored to work best AFTER infection and BEFORE the pneumonia stage.

The situation is fluid.

[JBJ 3654]

1 minute ago, Dahobbs said:

I think the new case flat lining is from the efforts of New York to slow the spread. New York, being farther along the curve than everyone else, has a disproportionate impact on the overall numbers right now. But, my concern is that other states are starting to ramp up (hi Louisiana) and will start accelerating the daily case increase back up. It'd be interesting if you could break up your model by states or even just general regions (or maybe just have separate models for NY and everyone else). 

Maybe and maybe not.

NY itself is a decent chunk of the cases, and I could see myself breaking it out down the road.  Right now it's basically following the national trend, though.

[Cheeseweasel 26438]

Just now, Hagbard Celine said:

The situation is fluid.

It's piss.

[Digdogger 1344]

11 minutes ago, CHEF DIESEL said:

Hot spots in Dallas County are University Park/Preston Hollow in the affluent part of the county which might mean SMU students or just wealthy folks access to health care. Or they travel a lot and brought it home with them. Interesting it is skewing towards wealthy neighborhoods in Dallas County:

 

Black don’t crack

[Loco 3752]

 

1 minute ago, Casual Encounter said:

This was one of the big reasons many of us were not focused on the virus testing. A virus with that high of a percentage of carriers not showing symptoms is impossible to track once it’s been spreading around the country for a month before testing begins. It’s best just to assume everyone is a carrier and practice social distancing for a determined amount of time so the virus runs its course in those infected. In my opinion, at this stage in the game, testing should only be used in hospitalized cases if there is a specific treatment necessary. The antibody test is what’s needed at this point, to determine who already beat this fucker and can get on with their lives.

I disagree, the more folks who are asymptomatic carriers the higher the need for testing (but better news for those without severe illness)...  That's the lesson they learned in Iceland & Vo ... unless you want to tell grandma (and all the other olds) to roll the dice and if its snake eyes she's dead.  You have to should identify the carriers and quarantine them.  It's the fact that we can't do this that we are in the "shut everything down and it sucks" phase.

Generally we need more data... only one way to get that data.

1 minute ago, Hate said:

So I finally found it.  This is the post from Wally Fairway back on March 13th.

And here is the chart.

So that's more like what I was thinking.  Flu like symptoms <> asymptomatic.   But the articles (very very preliminary for Iceland & Vo) indicated 50% Asymptomatic.  Thanks for taking the time to dig that up.

[JesusSweatDuck 17781]

27 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Both? Both.

I can't tell the difference between hipsters and the homeless anyways

[Coelenterate Fuccboi 13091]

12 minutes ago, Hagbard Celine said:

EXCEPT....  the hydroxychlorquine-azithromycin combo is rumored to work best AFTER infection and BEFORE the pneumonia stage.

The situation is fluid.

Fish tank cleaner fluid?

[SHOOTER12 8810]

6 hours ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Someone needs to tell those Texas State Coeds that the virus can live on clothes indefinitely and that taking off their clothes cures it.

Fifm

[strangulation! 1716]

47 minutes ago, Buzzrock said:

Got my first friend in ATL who has it. She’s just about over it and didn’t have to be hospitalized but she said it really sucked. Mid-50s lady.

glad to hear that.

 

pics of lungs?

[GRHorn 105]

51 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

I think the new case flat lining is from the efforts of New York to slow the spread. New York, being farther along the curve than everyone else, has a disproportionate impact on the overall numbers right now. But, my concern is that other states are starting to ramp up (hi Louisiana) and will start accelerating the daily case increase back up. It'd be interesting if you could break up your model by states or even just general regions (or maybe just have separate models for NY and everyone else). 

My new optimistic theory that I’m starting to come around to, is that given the wide spectrum of symptoms people experience, and the high transmissibility of this bug, is that a large portion of population gets it in rapid fashion. Or at least the people susceptible to it. Most people just don’t even realize it. The people that are prone to severe illness are declaring themselves early and thus the initial spike in hospitalIzations and ICU admits. Then there as less and less symptomatic people to test and the numbers level off and everyone that will be severely affected, outside of isolated elderly, has already had it. The second wave in the fall will not be as severe as people are afraid it will be.
 

To be sure the initial hit is very bad. Just something I’m kicking around in my head.  ChiTownDoc’s idea for IgG test would be the best way to prove or disprove this. 

[Liquor and Poker 3659]

33 minutes ago, CHEF DIESEL said:

Hot spots in Dallas County are University Park/Preston Hollow in the affluent part of the county which might mean SMU students or just wealthy folks access to health care. Or they travel a lot and brought it home with them. Interesting it is skewing towards wealthy neighborhoods in Dallas County:

 

Holy shit Pete Delkus' avatar.  He's like a lost Funny or Die clip.

 

Edited March 25, 2020 by Liquor and Poker

[Coelenterate Fuccboi 13091]

13 minutes ago, Loco said:

I disagree, the more folks who are asymptomatic carriers the higher the need for testing (but better news for those without severe illness)...  That's the lesson they learned in Iceland & Vo ... unless you want to tell grandma (and all the other olds) to roll the dice and if its snake eyes she's dead.  You have to should identify the carriers and quarantine them.  It's the fact that we can't do this that we are in the "shut everything down and it sucks" phase.

Generally we need more data... only one way to get that data.

I don’t even think you know what you’re disagreeing with anymore.

Of course, in an ideal scenario we can magically produce 350 million tests, mail it to everyone, and have facilities set up to immediately confirm the tests upon their immediate return. While you’re living in your fantasy world, the rest of us will operate in real life. There was no way to figure out who needed tests after it has been here for at least a month.
 

We fucked up in the beginning and there was no way to identify the infected in this country once we did duck up. If everyone acts as if they are infected, nobody visits granny, and she doesn’t get suck. The antibody test and interviews will provide all the data we need.

[B00M 6416]

1 hour ago, Trey3216 said:

He’s running low on mule dick, deer antler velvet, and puffer fish.   

Ftfy

[Hate 20108]

22 minutes ago, Loco said:

 

I disagree, the more folks who are asymptomatic carriers the higher the need for testing (but better news for those without severe illness)...  That's the lesson they learned in Iceland & Vo ... unless you want to tell grandma (and all the other olds) to roll the dice and if its snake eyes she's dead.  You have to should identify the carriers and quarantine them.  It's the fact that we can't do this that we are in the "shut everything down and it sucks" phase.

Generally we need more data... only one way to get that data.

So that's more like what I was thinking.  Flu like symptoms <> asymptomatic.   But the articles (very very preliminary for Iceland & Vo) indicated 50% Asymptomatic.  Thanks for taking the time to dig that up.

It was interesting to see Greenspoint's posts around that time.  He was talking about "shit's about to get real" back on the 13th.  I don't know just how busy the IR's in Houston are right now, but I don't quite think we are rationing care or at Italy levels yet.  I guess it's still 2 weeks away (not downplaying the seriousness of the pandemic, only Greenspoint's sky is falling posts from two weeks ago that the sky was going to be falling in two weeks). 

[atomheartbevo 89670]

5 hours ago, Bigbend1812 said:

Damn that I-35 corridor 

Good conduit from Mexico to Canada.