Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

[williemackgarza 1826]

Stay safe chitowndoc.

[dcar00 14356]

There is some interesting information on how they calculated swine flu in these links

https://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/pdf/details_eip_methods_plus_schematic.pdf

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3375879/

https://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/estimates/April_October_17.htm

interestingly there were only about 100K confirmed cases of swine by states 27K state confirmed hospitalizations and approx 3.4K state confirmed deaths(wikipedia page) for all of swine flu https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_flu_pandemic_in_the_United_States

In Oct 2009(6 months since first case) CDC estimated 4000 deaths and somehow came up with a number of 22M cases.  In other words the CDC says they never had an accurate count of swine deaths

The interesting thing was how they estimated the cases

"‡‡‡ Corrected for under-reporting: Cases: Case estimates calculated as 221.79 of hospitalizations. This factor was calculated using the median estimates of cases (3.052 million) and hospitalizations (13,764) from Reed et al"

so they made an estimate based on estimates,  221 x # of hospitalizations.  They estimated the number of 22M by multiplying  221  x median estimate of 97K hospitalizations.

There is some really fuzzy math going on.  I assume they used the same math to come up with 60M cases and 12K deaths after it was basically over in April 2010

[RPM 26351]

1 hour ago, clapclapclap said:

RIP Bill 3. 

Didn't he live in Sinton?

Refugio

[Murfdogg21 4423]

5 hours ago, StruggleBus said:

I’m mildly annoyed by some nurses on Facebook lecturing everyone that they should be donating masks to local hospitals, and they’re assholes if they don’t. 

I don’t understand the sentiment that people who prepared for this situation should give up their supplies to people, in the healthcare profession, that didn’t. They should be bitching at the hospital they work for being unprepared.

I say this as someone that donated masks to a local hospital.

Yes. Even more annoyed when being lied to even if it’s for a good cause. Nurses in my neighborhood Facebook group started the shaming over a week ago by saying they were already out of PPE and re-using gloves at various Seton hospitals. No you weren’t. Just come out say you are trying to conserve and stock up for the coming wave? Don’t lie. 
Not going to quote him, but Yankee fan didn’t address the point that if people say the masks are ineffective, why do they need them? They should at least admit that they offer some protection depending on the filter material. 
Agree with the overall premise though. If this outbreak went another way or during the next one, and we had a shortage of food, water, medicine, electricity, etc., based on this it seems like “preppers” would be shamed to hell for not sharing or outright donating 100% of their stuff, while it’s en vogue to mock preppers most of the time. They were being responsible for themselves and their families ahead of time at the expense of no one, and now in times of shortage it’s their fault?

[Onboard 2.0 9083]

2 hours ago, bschoolprof said:

Our rural backwoods shitholes compare favorably to other rural backwoods shitholes. 

We have the best rural shit holes.

[Onboard 2.0 9083]

3 hours ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Much easier when it's still at freezing and the bars are closed.  

Or yer really really ugly, and have bad breath.

[Modessit 5603]

IN.  But, depends on work which is a shit storm.  Parts list = BOM (Bill of Materials), in current industry.  Do not have a soldering iron, voltage meter, or oscilliscope (probably not needed).  Burn ROMs?  That still a thing?  Very well could be but I haven't heard that term used in a long while.

Which is why I mentioned the 80s versions. I doubt it was all TTL and probably used ROMs. I fixed 80s arcade games for a long time and have a shitload of PCBs that can be scavenged and drawers of parts. I'm not setup to do SMT but thruhole is simple. I've still got most of my soldering bench - no scope. Normally I'm just fixing (when possible) electronic toys my kids or my wife's students break. It's also helpful for picking up free non-working HDTVs and fixing them for the house for less than $20. I can fix broken shit, or put builds together, but I can't design it from scratch.

 

[DigglerontheHoof 21223]

5 hours ago, Helobious said:

Might have something to do with healthcare workers being in close proximity to the sickest members of the population everyday for hours at a time. But yes please keep your 100 masks to wear on your once a week 20 minute trip to the store, you need it more than anyone. Fuck those piece of shit doctors and nurses.

Seriously, the raw selfishness of a huge portion of our society is sickening.  Me, me, me, me, me!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Cunts

[Coelenterate Fuccboi 13119]

2 hours ago, Murfdogg21 said:

Yes. Even more annoyed when being lied to even if it’s for a good cause. Nurses in my neighborhood Facebook group started the shaming over a week ago by saying they were already out of PPE and re-using gloves at various Seton hospitals. No you weren’t. Just come out say you are trying to conserve and stock up for the coming wave? Don’t lie. 
Not going to quote him, but Yankee fan didn’t address the point that if people say the masks are ineffective, why do they need them? They should at least admit that they offer some protection depending on the filter material. 
Agree with the overall premise though. If this outbreak went another way or during the next one, and we had a shortage of food, water, medicine, electricity, etc., based on this it seems like “preppers” would be shamed to hell for not sharing or outright donating 100% of their stuff, while it’s en vogue to mock preppers most of the time. They were being responsible for themselves and their families ahead of time at the expense of no one, and now in times of shortage it’s their fault?

To be fair, the nurses have nothing to do with their PPE inventory. Hospitals are businesses and most business owners like to keep inventory as low as possible while maintaining normal operations. These nurses know how desperate things are about to get in regarding to PPE, so expect some strong emotions to come from them and actions which may seem unethical. Desperate people do desperate things. They are on the front lines, running out of PPE, likely mainly pissed at the hospital management but know directing frustration up that path will only result in excuses and facts that the supply chain is stressed, and know appealing to the general public, who stocked up on masks like toilet paper, is their best hope.

All this to say, cut them some slack. You fuckers are probably freaking out when one person coughs on the next aisle at the grocery store. Imagine working in close proximity to it all day. These mask hoarders will have boxes of masks in their attic for the rest of their lives. These nurses feel they need them quickly.

Edited March 26, 2020 by Casual Encounter
To top it off, they’re dealing with staff members stealing equipment and taking home to family.

[ClubWhatever 12157]

8 hours ago, Armybrat said:

One of my sons who works for Airborn in Georgetown says they are ramping up shifts to produce connectors used in the motherboards for hospital ventilators. He will be working the overnight shift, 12 hours, four days a week until June.

I can haz job?

[Digdogger 1344]

6 hours ago, RPM said:

siap but I know where I'm buying my next couch.

https://www.nbcdfw.com/news/coronavirus/north-texas-factory-switches-from-producing-furniture-to-face-masks/2338720/

 

Do they sell anything that says “Dad really likes leather”?

[RPM 26351]

2 minutes ago, Digdogger said:

Do they sell anything that says “Dad really likes leather”?

You mean their NTTAWWT collection?

[DigglerontheHoof 21223]

48 minutes ago, Casual Encounter said:

To be fair, the nurses have nothing to do with their PPE inventory. Hospitals are businesses and most business owners like to keep inventory as low as possible while maintaining normal operations. These nurses know how desperate things are about to get in regarding to PPE, so expect some strong emotions to come from them and actions which may seem unethical. Desperate people do desperate things. They are on the front lines, running out of PPE, likely mainly pissed at the hospital management but know directing frustration up that path will only result in excuses and facts that the supply chain is stressed, and know appealing to the general public, who stocked up on masks like toilet paper, is their best hope.

All this to say, cut them some slack. You fuckers are probably freaking out when one person coughs on the next aisle at the grocery store. Imagine working in close proximity to it all day. These mask hoarders will have boxes of masks in their attic for the rest of their lives. These nurses feel they need them quickly.

Exactly, as I mentioned in another thread, both my sister and Bil are ER nurses.  They don't make these calls, but they have to deal w/ the consequences.  Neither of them are shying away or quitting.  They're going to stick it out at great risk to themselves and their 3 daughters.  

So when I see people keeping/hording masks for themselves, it really pisses me the fuck off.   They're not walking into a living Covid petri dish every fucking day taking care of Covid victims.  Goddamnit, it pissed me off. 

[Thetexashammer 1062]

Is there a specific thread for discussion of the Eran Bendavid and Jay Bhattacharya editorial? https://www.wsj.com/articles/is-the-coronavirus-as-deadly-as-they-say-11585088464?mod=trending_now_pos2

They're basically saying the IFR could be lower than the flu.

Quote

The latter rate is misleading because of selection bias in testing. The degree of bias is uncertain because available data are limited. But it could make the difference between an epidemic that kills 20,000 and one that kills two million. If the number of actual infections is much larger than the number of cases—orders of magnitude larger—then the true fatality rate is much lower as well. That’s not only plausible but likely based on what we know so far.

Population samples from China, Italy, Iceland and the U.S. provide relevant evidence. On or around Jan. 31, countries sent planes to evacuate citizens from Wuhan, China. When those planes landed, the passengers were tested for Covid-19 and quarantined. After 14 days, the percentage who tested positive was 0.9%. If this was the prevalence in the greater Wuhan area on Jan. 31, then, with a population of about 20 million, greater Wuhan had 178,000 infections, about 30-fold more than the number of reported cases. The fatality rate, then, would be at least 10-fold lower than estimates based on reported cases.

Next, the northeastern Italian town of Vò, near the provincial capital of Padua. On March 6, all 3,300 people of Vò were tested, and 90 were positive, a prevalence of 2.7%. Applying that prevalence to the whole province (population 955,000), which had 198 reported cases, suggests there were actually 26,000 infections at that time. That’s more than 130-fold the number of actual reported cases. Since Italy’s case fatality rate of 8% is estimated using the confirmed cases, the real fatality rate could in fact be closer to 0.06%.

In Iceland, deCode Genetics is working with the government to perform widespread testing. In a sample of nearly 2,000 entirely asymptomatic people, researchers estimated disease prevalence of just over 1%. Iceland’s first case was reported on Feb. 28, weeks behind the U.S. It’s plausible that the proportion of the U.S. population that has been infected is double, triple or even 10 times as high as the estimates from Iceland. That also implies a dramatically lower fatality rate.

 

[RayDog 682]

The Philippines is up to 707 cases and 45 deaths with 9 deaths being doctors and two well known actors. Those ratios do not make sense, so I suspect there are many undiagnosed virus deaths. There are also two senators and an ex senator infected, so there is an uproar over VIPs and their families getting special access to testing as there have still been fewer than 2000 total tests. 

There is now one confirmed case in Angeles and two in Clark, all in hospitals. So it is now known to be in my neighborhood.  They are still bringing Filipinos into Clark airport from other countries and have been letting them stay in Angeles. Some are staying at hotels a couple blocks from me.

The restaurants that were doing takeout are closing, so I am staying home more, which is probably best.

[NotActuallyALonghorn 4977]

10 hours ago, dcbc said:

Smith County, hold my whiskey that I had to drive half an hour and back to get. 

Tyler is just trying to prove to the world how good their hospitals are. Gregg County (Longview) has tested 70 people. 27 negative and 3 positive with 40 still outstanding. Smith County (Tyler) has 21 confirmed cases and evidence of local spread, with one case being a postal mail carrier. Not sure how many tests they have administered, but I'd imagine they still have a lot of outstanding tests. Gregg is mandatory SiP, while Smith is doing nothing. There are a lot of people who travel back and forth between Tyler and Longview for work who work in essential industries like health care or chemicals production. Tyler is going to kill us all.

[CleverNickname 1321]

Think my yard guy (crew) comes today? I'm guessing they are considered or consider themselves "essential sanitation" or something. I may not be a rich man, but having somebody else mow my yard makes me feel like a rich motherfucker. 

[Loco 3754]

So the UK is started to get squirrely with their death numbers.   Data did not come out on time yesterday (perhaps not at all)

 

[NoName 16397]

14 hours ago, BERT said:

Gregg County on lockdown starting tomorrow. 

so this means they have their first community-acquired case?

edit: from their paper's article

Quote

A mandatory shelter-at-home order has been issued for Gregg County residents as two additional cases of COVID-19 were confirmed in the county, making its total three.

 

Edited March 26, 2020 by NoName

[Loco 3754]

8 minutes ago, CleverNickname said:

Think my yard guy (crew) comes today? I'm guessing they are considered or consider themselves "essential sanitation" or something. I may not be a rich man, but having somebody else mow my yard makes me feel like a rich motherfucker. 

Landscape crews were declared essential in Florida... mine did the yard yesterday

[utee94 15860]

13 minutes ago, CleverNickname said:

Think my yard guy (crew) comes today? I'm guessing they are considered or consider themselves "essential sanitation" or something. I may not be a rich man, but having somebody else mow my yard makes me feel like a rich motherfucker. 

My yard guy came yesterday.  He does three houses around me and works solo.   I venmo him his payment and rarely ever see him.  Gotta be one of the safest jobs out there.

 

 

[Loco 3754]

3 minutes ago, utee94 said:

My yard guy came yesterday.  He does three houses around me and works solo.   I venmo him his payment and rarely ever see him.  Gotta be one of the safest jobs out there.

 

 

Around here it's 5-6 guys in a truck pulling a trailer.   They don't come in contact with the home owners but they are packed into that truck like lemmings.

[NotActuallyALonghorn 4977]

16 minutes ago, NoName said:

so this means they have their first community-acquired case?

edit: from their paper's article

 

First case was domestic travel a while back, so I would hope that the other two positives were either family or people who treated them. Supposedly there were several nurses and staff quarantined because they did not know to where propper PPE at first. But like I said a few posts ago, there are a lot of people who travel back and forth from Tyler where there is community spread to Longview for work, so it is only a matter of time, especially since Tyler seems determined not to lock anything down.

[NorthLoop 14240]

13 minutes ago, utee94 said:

My yard guy came yesterday.  He does three houses around me and works solo.   I venmo him his payment and rarely ever see him.  Gotta be one of the safest jobs out there.

 

 

Not so fast

[Armybrat 40893]

2 hours ago, ClubWhatever said:

I can haz job?

Apply online, but the pay is shitty. Good luck.

[Mrs Whiggins 13050]

8 hours ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Much easier when it's still at freezing and the bars are closed.  

Makes me miss Wisconsin a little. Winter was brutal for the extroverts, but I loved snow days. Nothing like twenty inches of snow to make me happy to have a roof over my head.

Hang in there @ChiTownDoc.

[utee94 15860]

17 minutes ago, Loco said:

Around here it's 5-6 guys in a truck pulling a trailer.   They don't come in contact with the home owners but they are packed into that truck like lemmings.

There are larger crews that work the neighborhood too, but rarely more than 3 in a truck I'd guess.

Since those same guys have been working together for the past 3 months since we've had the virus in our country, seems to me like they should be treated more as a "family unit" than an open office type of situation, for the purposes of spread prevention.  But of course, I don't make the rules, so there you have it.

[NoName 16397]

13 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I imagine that any many rural hospitals don’t have enough or maybe 0 ICU beds. Only option is to shift them to larger city hospitals which may not be able to absorb them soon.

depends on the setup

critical access hospitals (what most people think of as "rural", 25 bed limit - think Llano, Comanche, Navasota, Hamilton, Uvalde, Burnet, Perryton, Ft. Stockton) generally do not have ICU beds. its the exception, not the rule.

actual "rural" hospitals (just hospitals in rural areas - think Marble Falls, Kerrville, Mt. Pleasant, San Angelo) generally have small-ish ICUs, just not large ones. 

 

[MissingInAction 25178]

39 minutes ago, Loco said:

So the UK is started to get squirrely with their death numbers.   Data did not come out on time yesterday (perhaps not at all)

 

Graphs are for idiots.

[SydneyCarton 48166]

Skipped the last 5 pages. Has anyone addressed the current rumor that Fauci is about to be replaced by Ben Carson? NO CR. I can’t imagine this is a move that will be received well by the markets or American public if it is in fact true. 

[Cheeseweasel 26438]

4 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Has anyone addressed the current rumor that Fauci is about to be replaced by Ben Carson?

Facebook is a fantastic place to get the latest news!!!!

[NoName 16397]

9 hours ago, ChiTownDoc said:

NW has around 100 COVID patients hospitalized.  They still have some vent capacity but not much.  Swedish Covenant on the north side down to one vent left and starting to flood.  Latest predictions in Chicago market are a spike starting around April 1 and peaking April 14. 

Oh a fun fact that doesn't have to do much with anything but gets to some of the financials.  Hospitals clean up on electives which are on pause.  Also they are leaving as much capacity as possible bed wise...so NW currently is charging 30M less per day in their system so that's a real time hit of about 15M per day.  When you're doing billions a year that's not too crazy and I'm definitely not saying feel sorry for the bastards but just some big numbers all around. 

And does anyone have the social distancing grades by city?  Chicago was doing well but it's still cold as shit here.  That's my theory because as a whole we are certainly  no smarter around these parts. 

Stay safe out there...

how many CFOs in the system stroked out about 3 days into this? 

[SydneyCarton 48166]

4 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Facebook is a fantastic place to get the latest news!!!!

Hey man, I’m just trying to catch up. Also, it was discord. 

[Skipper 6196]

1 hour ago, Thetexashammer said:

Is there a specific thread for discussion of the Eran Bendavid and Jay Bhattacharya editorial? https://www.wsj.com/articles/is-the-coronavirus-as-deadly-as-they-say-11585088464?mod=trending_now_pos2

They're basically saying the IFR could be lower than the flu.

 

The point Peter Attia made in his video last night (good 6 minute watch IMO) is due to shit testing we just don't know and it's hard to make policy decisions without data.  Really no excuse at this point to continue to have shit testing:  

 

[Onboard 2.0 9083]

32 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Skipped the last 5 pages. Has anyone addressed the current rumor that Fauci is about to be replaced by Ben Carson? NO CR. I can’t imagine this is a move that will be received well by the markets or American public if it is in fact true. 

Jeebus Christ I hope. not.  Why replace the guy who probably knows this issue better than anyone ?

[KYHorn 17153]

23 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Hey man, I’m just trying to catch up. Also, it was discord. 

Ah, Anonymous Nerd Facebook.

[Onboard 2.0 9083]

28 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Facebook is a fantastic place to get the latest news!!!!

Shit I haven't gotten thru the first 500 memes about poor poor parents being stuck at home with their kids...  

[Macanudo 13010]

If the UK really is requiring families to allow death info to be released that's just stupid. 

[Bevo 13600]

29 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Skipped the last 5 pages. Has anyone addressed the current rumor that Fauci is about to be replaced by Ben Carson? NO CR. I can’t imagine this is a move that will be received well by the markets or American public if it is in fact true. 

As a daily speaker at press conferences, I see no problem with it. If Fauci could still speak once a week, I really see no problem with it. He already said he was overwhelmed. I would rather him stay focused on drug and vaccine development so he can move those projects along as fast as possible. I still wonder why the head of the NIH was not used for this. That person must not be a very good speaker.

[Onboard 2.0 9083]

1 minute ago, Macanudo said:

If the UK really is requiring families to allow death info to be released that's just stupid. 

Why ? I understand privacy and grieving, but we require death certificates, we compile statistics,  reasons for death, etc..

[Cheeseweasel 26438]

4 minutes ago, Onboard 2.0 said:

Shit I haven't gotten thru the first 500 memes about poor poor parents being stuck at home with their kids...  

I think our nurses/doctors are heroes but JFC I don't need 1,000 daily reminders of what they are going thru.

[Mrs Whiggins 13050]

2 minutes ago, Bevo said:

As a daily speaker at press conferences, I see no problem with it. If Fauci could still speak once a week, I really see no problem with it. He already said he was overwhelmed. I would rather him stay focused on drug and vaccine development so he can move those projects along as fast as possible. I still wonder why the head of the NIH was not used for this. That person must not be a very good speaker.

There is a difference between being removed from the daily briefings and being fired. If it was the first and Fauci was still managing pandemic response, I'm disappointed but okay with that. If it is fired and he has 24 hours to remove his possessions and shown the door, then well no, that is  not ideal. After those comments, however, my discussion would be political and therefore I am stopping.

[InkaUtexas 26093]

Having a pretty crappy morning. And at the same time blessed. Lost my mom overseas a few days ago and there is nothing we can do about it. Old, overseas, living in a  tourist location in the carib. Sounds like this bitch virus might have been the key. 

 Had a long talk with my daughter about it last night. They were quite close. This morning, my 18 year old (no pics)  walked off to volunteer at the local food bank. Said dad, we get to have a say in who and how we lose. Folks we can do this. Sorry, rant over, Just had to vent. 

Thank you all for being here. Fuck OU. 

[Loco 3754]

Edited March 26, 2020 by Loco

[NoName 16397]

11 minutes ago, Macanudo said:

If the UK really is requiring families to allow death info to be released that's just stupid. 

 

 

 

Edited March 26, 2020 by NoName

[bolverk 29717]

43 minutes ago, NoName said:

depends on the setup

critical access hospitals (what most people think of as "rural", 25 bed limit - think Llano, Comanche, Navasota, Hamilton, Uvalde, Burnet, Perryton, Ft. Stockton) generally do not have ICU beds. its the exception, not the rule.

actual "rural" hospitals (just hospitals in rural areas - think Marble Falls, Kerrville, Mt. Pleasant, San Angelo) generally have small-ish ICUs, just not large ones. 

 

NPR has a tool at the end of this very short article where you can plug in a county and see how many ICU beds are available per 100,000 in each of the country's 300 or so health districts.

https://www.npr.org/2020/03/25/819940409/icu-bed-capacity-varies-widely-nationwide-see-how-your-area-stacks-up

 

[NoName 16397]

1 minute ago, Loco said:

https://twitter.com/JasonBates/status/1243166205881573378/photo/1

yeah, the FT guy is a good follow on this - here is the specific tweet. i try to post when they are updated daily...

 

 

[SydneyCarton 48166]

3 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Having a pretty crappy morning. And at the same time blessed. Lost my mom overseas a few days ago and there is nothing we can do about it. Old, overseas, living in a  tourist location in the carib. Sounds like this bitch virus might have been the key. 

 Had a long talk with my daughter about it last night. They were quite close. This morning, my 18 year old (no pics)  walked off to volunteer at the local food bank. Said dad, we get to have a say in who and how we lose. Folks we can do this. Sorry, rant over, Just had to vent. 

Thank you all for being here. Fuck OU. 

Sorry man. 

[Coelenterate Fuccboi 13119]

2 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Said dad, we get to have a say in who and how we lose. Folks we can do this.

Tell her she’s a bright ass star in a generation of toilet licking meteorites.

[DigglerontheHoof 21223]

So just walked my dog a couple of miles and I'm trying to figure out why school buses are running and picking up kids.  The elementary school in my neighborhood is closed.  It looked like middle/high school kids.  Weird.