Jump to content

Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

InkaUtexas

By InkaUtexas
in Cloak Room

 Share

Recommended Posts

atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89788

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, Thetexashammer said:

Italian governor threatens to send police armed with flamethrowers to fight against people violating quarantine.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8143383/Italian-politicians-threaten-flamethrowers-enforce-coronavirus-lockdown.html

7 minutes ago, tantric superman said:

But that shit is delicious.

spacer.png

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • Replies 58.2k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

  • atomheartbevo

    2461

  • dcar00

    1722

  • Cheeseweasel

    1552

  • MNLonghornFUKM

    1324

Popular Days

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Popular Posts

Uncle Boobs
Uncle Boobs

Against my better judgment and several beers deep, I have taken you up on this, potentially ending my streak of totally worthless posts. I have done 3 and 7 day averages only on the Worldometer data. 

Brisketexan
Brisketexan

Daughter’s home. A little PTSD, we’re picking up Whataburger to help.

Coelenterate Fuccboi
Coelenterate Fuccboi

Just try and imagine GreenspointTexas being the person to intubate you as you fight for your life against COVID-19. You’re laying there gasping for air while he chastises you for all the things you li

Posted Images

dcar00

dcar00 14356

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, Thetexashammer said:

Is there a specific thread for discussion of the Eran Bendavid and Jay Bhattacharya editorial? https://www.wsj.com/articles/is-the-coronavirus-as-deadly-as-they-say-11585088464?mod=trending_now_pos2

They're basically saying the IFR could be lower than the flu.

 

Its all going to come down to how they "estimate" the number of cases.  we are at 1000 deaths 2 months in.  there were 4000 deaths estimated 6 months into H1N1 which ended up being .02 where flu is .1. remember this is way more contagious than H1N1 or normal flu.  still a ways to go.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
FondrenRoad

FondrenRoad 4378

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, Onboard 2.0 said:

Yes, not it's not, so go away if you're gonna troll that stuff in here.  CR has nothing to do with people either just getting greedy or a host of other issues that could have driven costs. Their own rules about over time pay if they've geared up extra time too crank out product , the cost of getting materials could have increased for the exact same reasons.  

Jesus you're insufferable regardless of the thread you post in.

 

Fuck you. Technically what I am speaking about isn't even politics.  Price gouging is happening.  Shortages are happening.  Its a current event and topical.  Your desire for a safe space is going to kill you. Information and pushback against wrong is more important than ever right now.

  • Like 6
  • Fuck You 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
mchookem

mchookem 16379

Posted
Posted (edited)

fyi, bc i follow the city and Mayor on fb...Port Aransas has 2 confirmed cases this morning.

they closed the beaches yesterday - you can have 'movement exercises' only (running, walking, etc), no sitting. no fishing from shore/beach/piers. also no short term rentals - basically shutting it down to residents only. snowbirds can stay or go (but not come back).

seems like sitting on the beach 100 yds from anybody would be one of the safest activities you could do. that sucks.

Edited by mchookem
Link to comment
Share on other sites
smuggs

smuggs 9353

Posted
Posted
Just now, mchookem said:

fyi, bc i follow the city and Mayor on fb...Port A has 2 confirmed cases this morning.

they closed the beaches yesterday - you can have 'movement exercises' only (running, walking, etc), no sitting. no fishing from shore/beach/piers. also no short term rentals - basically shutting it down to residents only. snowbirds can stay or go (but not come back).

seems like sitting on the beach 100 yds from anybody would be one of the safest activities you could do. that sucks.

Any word about metal detecting?

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Captainant

Captainant 27762

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, mchookem said:

fyi, bc i follow the city and Mayor on fb...Port Aransas has 2 confirmed cases this morning.

they closed the beaches yesterday - you can have 'movement exercises' only (running, walking, etc), no sitting. no fishing from shore/beach/piers. also no short term rentals - basically shutting it down to residents only. snowbirds can stay or go (but not come back).

seems like sitting on the beach 100 yds from anybody would be one of the safest activities you could do. that sucks.

Well shit, my wife wanted to go to her family's beach house in Port Oconnor this weekend and take the boat out. I wonder if USCG would be enforcing quarantines even out there...

Link to comment
Share on other sites
po elvis

po elvis 2076

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Wally Fairway said:

Here is a good read, about a 69 year old retired physician in Pennsylvania who went to see her doctor on March 9, couldn't get the COVID test until March 17 (having been denied several times) and as of March 23 was still waiting on her test results. 
 

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-52019509

 

why the fuck was she going about her business when she was sick? she didn't need a test to tell her she was sick. geezus fuck.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Lat22

Lat22 4016

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Captainant said:

Well shit, my wife wanted to go to her family's beach house in Port Oconnor this weekend and take the boat out. I wonder if USCG would be enforcing quarantines even out there...

You can take the boat out.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Bevo

Bevo 13600

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, Macanudo said:

Is Dyson going to share the design or patent it and gouge?

Everything that Dyson makes is premium priced. But, the device would still have to go through the FDA. How long will that take? I'm guessing longer than 2 months.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
closetojumping

closetojumping 62848

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

wasnt the Imperial College the one that said 2M dead in US.  now  he is saying UK is likely to have 1/10th of his original estimate?

You know it. Somewhere, right now, Dahobbs is shitting himself in agony and wondering if this potentially impacts support for his straight-line assumptions that we're going to see 10,000 deaths per day in the US as of April 10, or, you know, 15 days from now.

  • Like 4
  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
justhookit

justhookit 4191

Posted
Posted (edited)
22 minutes ago, mchookem said:

fyi, bc i follow the city and Mayor on fb...Port Aransas has 2 confirmed cases this morning.

they closed the beaches yesterday - you can have 'movement exercises' only (running, walking, etc), no sitting. no fishing from shore/beach/piers. also no short term rentals - basically shutting it down to residents only. snowbirds can stay or go (but not come back).

seems like sitting on the beach 100 yds from anybody would be one of the safest activities you could do. that sucks.

This is all correct but the order doesn’t go into effect until midnight tonight, so I’m hitting the beach this afternoon.

Regarding the 2 cases they are travel related and one or possibly both appear to have come from Costa Rica. I’m sure we will have more here soon due to the idiocy that happened during spring break.

Edited by justhookit
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
davidg

davidg 4038

Posted
Posted
18 minutes ago, Bevo said:

Everything that Dyson makes is premium priced. But, the device would still have to go through the FDA. How long will that take? I'm guessing longer than 2 months.

CoVent, with the patented Dyson Digital Motor, puffs your lungs out the best.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89788

Posted
Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, G650 said:

I saw that. Woof.

Karens.  They are real.   They infest Facebook, Nextdoor, etc.  imagine being stuck with one during a hurricane or blizzard.   They will go to the store in the middle of a pandemic for $5 worth of crap.  

Edited by atomheartbevo
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
dcar00

dcar00 14356

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

You know it. Somewhere, right now, Dahobbs is shitting himself in agony and wondering if this potentially impacts support for his straight-line assumptions that we're going to see 10,000 deaths per day in the US as of April 10, or, you know, 15 days from now.

IMO I can see this actually being .1-.2 or 5-10X Swine.  In theory there should be way more estimated cases at the end of this than swine because we are told it is way more contagious.  there are hot spots NYC where the system could get overwhelmed but a nationwide crash, seems like might not happen.  NYC is our Italy.  

then you have to consider that some could have died from normal flu.  anyway, here's to hoping.  I think we have 3 months before we really know but I can see the lockdown being lifted sooner rather than later. the stopping of Intl flights and borders was good.  I think we are going to learn some lessons about scalpel vs. sledgehammer here.   would have been nice to lock down olds but can you/how do you?  can you run flights 40% full instead of locking down all together. ban flights to/from hot spots  sure ban huge music festivals and shit but could a restaurant run half full.  practice phsyical distancing and cleanliness.  not having a base to work from for a vaccince like with swine sent the projections over the top.   It may still turn south everywhere but 

All this comes with a big big IMO.  I hope I'm right but still plenty of time to be wrong.

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Brisketexan

Brisketexan 105319

Posted
Posted
23 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

wasnt the Imperial College the one that said 2M dead in US.  now  he is saying UK is likely to have 1/10th of his original estimate?

If we end up at 1/10th that estimate, we will be at 200k deaths.  Note that this does NOT take into account the massive strain on our hospitals and the much higher number of critical care patients.  Also, to compare, the highest death rate we've had from the flu in the past 40 years (and note, this number is very arguable, as many believe the CDC's numbers are high) is 80k in 2018.  So, 2.5X the flu at its worst.  If we get out of this with that, it would be a big win.

16 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

You know it. Somewhere, right now, Dahobbs is shitting himself in agony and wondering if this potentially impacts support for his straight-line assumptions that we're going to see 10,000 deaths per day in the US as of April 10, or, you know, 15 days from now.

Here's a thought: folks postulating that EITHER we're going to have 10k a day dying, OR that this will be no worse than the flu, are full of shit.  Toss out the best-case willful Pollyanna numbers....toss out the worst-case "we're all gonna die" numbers.  What is left in the middle...is still really fucking bad.

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites
horn4life

horn4life 3783

Posted
Posted

I am curious if there is going to be any pandemic ethics guidance for physicians going forward.  For example Gov. Cuomo was saying that some people who were dying were on ventilators for 20-30 days.  He stated that the longer you are on a ventilator the less likely you are to recover and come off of the machine.  So from an ethical standpoint is there not some sort of "cutoff" for number of days on a respirator when recovery becomes so remote that the patient should be removed from the respirator?  In other words if a person who normally recovers does so in 5 days on a ventilator, and there is almost no survival rate after more than 15 days on the ventilator, does 15 days become the ethical cutoff? The thought being that rather than extend the use of the ventilator another 15 days for the patient likely to die, is very low return.  When those same 15 days of ventilation might be used to treat and help recover 3 other patients (assuming 5 days or less of ventilation).

Would /will something along these lines become policy somewhere?  Even if only in classified Homeland Security files.

OR do we simply put folks on a ventilator until they recover or die and it becomes a first come, first served situation? It's going to be an ethics question a lot of doctors are going to be facing, and just wonder if you personally think there should be some sort of guidance or do you think it should be the decision of the physician? Family only?

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
GreenspointTexas

GreenspointTexas 9664

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, horn4life said:

I am curious if there is going to be any pandemic ethics guidance for physicians going forward.  For example Gov. Cuomo was saying that some people who were dying were on ventilators for 20-30 days.  He stated that the longer you are on a ventilator the less likely you are to recover and come off of the machine.  So from an ethical standpoint is there not some sort of "cutoff" for number of days on a respirator when recovery becomes so remote that the patient should be removed from the respirator?  In other words if a person who normally recovers does so in 5 days on a ventilator, and there is almost no survival rate after more than 15 days on the ventilator, does 15 days become the ethical cutoff? The thought being that rather than extend the use of the ventilator another 15 days for the patient likely to die, is very low return.  When those same 15 days of ventilation might be used to treat and help recover 3 other patients (assuming 5 days or less of ventilation).

Would /will something along these lines become policy somewhere?  Even if only in classified Homeland Security files.

OR do we simply put folks on a ventilator until they recover or die and it becomes a first come, first served situation? It's going to be an ethics question a lot of doctors are going to be facing, and just wonder if you personally think there should be some sort of guidance or do you think it should be the decision of the physician? Family only?

Username does not check out?

  • Like 3
  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Brisketexan

Brisketexan 105319

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, dcar00 said:

IMO I can see this actually being .1-.2 or 5-10X Swine.  In theory there should be way more estimated cases at the end of this than swine because we are told it is way more contagious.  there are hot spots NYC where the system could get overwhelmed but a nationwide crash, seems like might not happen.  NYC is our Italy.  

then you have to consider that some could have died from normal flu.  anyway, here's to hoping.  I think we have 3 months before we really know but I can see the lockdown being lifted sooner rather than later. the stopping of Intl flights and borders was good.  I think we are going to learn some lessons about scalpel vs. sledgehammer here.   would have been nice to lock down olds but can you/how do you?  can you run flights 40% full instead of locking down all together. ban flights to/from hot spots  sure ban huge music festivals and shit but could a restaurant run half full.  practice phsyical distancing and cleanliness.  not having a base to work from for a vaccince like with swine sent the projections over the top.   It may still turn south everywhere but 

All this comes with a big big IMO.  I hope I'm right but still plenty of time to be wrong.

 

Your scenario is really what I'm hoping for.  What all of that relies upon is good, reliable data.  What are we really experiencing, what is the real infection rate, how many people have already been infected, what measures yielded the best results at reducing transmission, etc.  This has to be approached methodically and scientifically.

Maybe NYC will be our Italy.  Maybe Boise will be our example of a city that shut things down before community transmission really kicked in.  Then where do we go from there?  What can we do on a business-opening level (maybe we can learn from Hubei province -- manufacturing is open now, but workers still must maintain social distancing....and most everyone wears a mask everywhere).  Instead of starting from conclusions that we want to reach, let's gather data and let that lead us to the best conclusions.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
BTW

BTW 370

Posted
Posted

I'm cross posting the analysis I just did:

Here's why comparisons to influenza appear to be erroneous.

-  There is no "herd" immunity to the SARS-CoV2 virus because it's new.  There is herd immunity to influenza (which is actually a class of many different viruses strains). Due to this only about 8% of the population gets the flu every year.  This herd immunity is also boosted by vaccines for which there is obviously none for COV2.

 - The average mortality rate of influenza is .1% or about 1/1000 cases.  The current estimated mortality rate of COVID-19 is 1.4% (14/1000) or 14x higher than influenza.

- The transmission rate of influenza (called R0 or R-naught) is ~1.3. Meaning each person with the flu will get 1.3 other people sick.  The R0 for SARS-CoV2 is estimated to be 2-3.  Meaning it's about 2x more transmissible than the flu.

So here's your mortality math assuming 350 Million people in USA:

Influenza: On average 8% get the flu so 28 Million.  Average mortality rate is .1% or 28,000/year. Actual Numbers

SARS-CoV2: Having no history to refer to, no one knows how many will get it, but with the 2x R0 transmission rate let's just call it 16% or 56 Million.  Mortality rate is 1.4% or 784,000 deaths.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
DDD Dad

DDD Dad 14348

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, horn4life said:

I am curious if there is going to be any pandemic ethics guidance for physicians going forward.  For example Gov. Cuomo was saying that some people who were dying were on ventilators for 20-30 days.  He stated that the longer you are on a ventilator the less likely you are to recover and come off of the machine.  So from an ethical standpoint is there not some sort of "cutoff" for number of days on a respirator when recovery becomes so remote that the patient should be removed from the respirator?  In other words if a person who normally recovers does so in 5 days on a ventilator, and there is almost no survival rate after more than 15 days on the ventilator, does 15 days become the ethical cutoff? The thought being that rather than extend the use of the ventilator another 15 days for the patient likely to die, is very low return.  When those same 15 days of ventilation might be used to treat and help recover 3 other patients (assuming 5 days or less of ventilation).

Would /will something along these lines become policy somewhere?  Even if only in classified Homeland Security files.

OR do we simply put folks on a ventilator until they recover or die and it becomes a first come, first served situation? It's going to be an ethics question a lot of doctors are going to be facing, and just wonder if you personally think there should be some sort of guidance or do you think it should be the decision of the physician? Family only?

Paywall has been removed for COVID stories.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
JBJ

JBJ 3664

Posted
Posted (edited)
14 minutes ago, BTW said:

- The transmission rate of influenza (called R0 or R-naught) is ~1.3. Meaning each person with the flu will get 1.3 other people sick.  The R0 for SARS-CoV2 is estimated to be 2-3.  Meaning it's about 2x more transmissible than the flu.

Most flus have R0 values between 2-3.  H1N1-09 is exceptionally low at 1.5 and that's the number people keep referring to because it's the last US epidemic.

Reproduction rate and transmission rate are also different things.

Edited by JBJ
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
GringoSalado

GringoSalado 1652

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, FondrenRoad said:

I'm not storming any plants.  It used to be $7 for a box of masks.  Now its $4 a mask.  The company isn't even attempting to "mask" the fact that it is gouging on the masks.

But 3M is doubling production to 100 million a month and shifting away from manufacturing masks for industrial purposes, so we will be gouged right into the arms of a new monopoly.

We are in a state of emergency.  This is no time to squeeze additional profits out.

A $4 mask > no mask. I think the issue folks are having with your stance is they, and I, suspect any "solutions" to the price gouging will result in the "no mask" scenario. Of course we will have defeated price gouging, but if you don't allow for profit off of shortages then you will face more shortages.

 

The shortage is the enemy, the high price a symptom (and, arguably, a cure).

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Samson's Wig

Samson's Wig 3194

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, atomheartbevo said:

Dyson doing amazing stuff, designing a ventilator specific to the needs of covid patients, in 10 days.  

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/26/tech/dyson-ventilators-coronavirus/index.html

“Dyson has received an order from the UK government for 10,000 ventilators to support efforts by the country's National Health Service to treat coronavirus patients. 

James Dyson, the company's billionaire founder, confirmed the order in a letter to employees shared with CNN on Wednesday.

'Desperate' shortage of ventilators for coronavirus patients puts manufacturers on wartime footing

"A ventilator supports a patient who is no longer able to maintain their own airways, but sadly there is currently a significant shortage, both in the UK and other countries around the world," Dyson wrote.

Dyson said the company had designed and built an entirely new ventilator, called the "CoVent," since he received a call 10 days ago from UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson.

"This new device can be manufactured quickly, efficiently and at volume," Dyson added, saying that the new ventilator has been designed to "address the specific needs" of coronavirus patients.

A spokesperson for the company, which is best known for its vacuum cleaners and hand dryers, said the ventilators would be ready by early April. Dyson, who has wealth worth $10 billion according to Bloomberg, wrote in his letter that he would also donate 5,000 units to the international effort to tackle the pandemic. 

"The core challenge was how to design and deliver a new, sophisticated medical product in volume and in an extremely short space of time," he added. "The race is now on to get it into production."

WTF is Elon doing?

Link to comment
Share on other sites
 Share
Go to topic listing


Football ... Basketball ... Baseball ... Other Sports ... Futbol ... 🤫995🤫 ... Gambling ... Movies & TV ... Music ... Hobbies ... Lulz ... Food & Travel ... Daily Texan ... Business and Markets ... Cloak Room ... Help ... For Sale ... Board Discussion ... Subscribe!... Donate!... Advertise... COOKIE MONSTER!

×
×
  • Create New...