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Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

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Uncle Boobs
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Against my better judgment and several beers deep, I have taken you up on this, potentially ending my streak of totally worthless posts. I have done 3 and 7 day averages only on the Worldometer data. 

Brisketexan
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Daughter’s home. A little PTSD, we’re picking up Whataburger to help.

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Just try and imagine GreenspointTexas being the person to intubate you as you fight for your life against COVID-19. You’re laying there gasping for air while he chastises you for all the things you li

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utee94

utee94 15823

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Posted (edited)

Glad to hear 3M hasn't increased its price, although they certainly could and still potentially be completely justified, as I'd be surprised if their marginal costs are not higher for a massive unplanned run, compared to what they would otherwise be.

And it's true that 3M cannot legally tell the various wholesalers, retailers, and distribution channel partners in their downstream sales channels, how to price the masks.  That would be illegal collusion and is strictly forbidden.

So if one or more of those retailers or channel partners are gouging during a national emergency, that's within the purview of the Feds to investigate and prosecute.

 

Edited by utee94
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Dahobbs

Dahobbs 17534

Posted
Posted (edited)
11 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

My opinion is that there is a lot of fuzziness/unknown as to what total lockdown means and how someone might model it, how strictly it is adhered to, etc.   there is some reality in what he is doing and I don't think he is being disingenous at all but I do believe he is seeing what others are seeing.  I'll leave it at that.

 

I really don't understand what you're saying, particularly the bold. As opposed to what? 

As to the first part, I can only assume that his modeling for the different scenarios assumes that things like social distancing are actually happening. I'm sure he could adjust it based on an adherence percentage, but I'm not sure how useful that would be. I don't see in the paper the precise details of how he modeled the different scenarios (i.e., what changes were made to reflect "social distancing"). I'm sure that is outlined somewhere, but we only have portions of drafts and not all the underlying documentation. It does say it is an "individual based simulation model," so it appears he modeled down to the individual level. Social distancing would thus prevent the individual agents from getting within 6' (at least outside a household). Quarantine would prevent infected individuals from leaving their household. School closures would prevent gatherings at schools and universities. Basically, imagine it is a really detailed version of sim city.  

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FondrenRoad

FondrenRoad 4378

Posted
Posted (edited)
25 minutes ago, Beau Vine said:

You're about third person who has pointed that out to him, so I'd like to think that he's thought of that by now, but OTOH, he's still railing against capitalism, so maybe he hasn't.

Or you know, you could read clapclapclap's post where manufacturers have not raised prices, but retailers have, and are, in fact, gouging. 

And I continue to be anti-gouging. You guys are giving excuses for a roughly 1000% increase in price. 

Edited by FondrenRoad
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MNLonghornFUKM

MNLonghornFUKM 8817

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But why, if it’s already all over the country and world?  Why the hot spots?

They’re twice as dense as the next closest metro I can find. 27k per sq mile vs 14.5k sq mile(Phoenix)

 

 

That’s just my guess. But it’s crazy when we see the people in these other huge metros across the country and they don’t even hold a candle to NYC

 

Even Chicago and Miami are 11.8

LA/Seattle 8

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VABuckeye

VABuckeye 2472

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Just now, Pato del Muerto said:

But why, if it’s already all over the country and world?  Why the hot spots?

I don't know.  Population density possibly and a couple of really big airports with a lot of international travel?  Just taking a wild stab at it.

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Hate

Hate 20108

Posted
Posted
Or you know, you could read clapclapclap's post where manufacturers have not raised prices, but retailers have, and are, in fact, gouging.  And I continue to be anti-gouging. You guys are giving excuses for a roughly 1000% increase in price. 

 

Your post make me want to gouge my eyeballs out. Your original post railed against the capitalist “manufacturers”. You’ve conveniently moved the goal posts to the “resellers” which nobody here had argued against. Shut the fuck up.
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clapclapclap

clapclapclap 9000

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Fog of war:

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/26/health/california-teen-coronavirus-deaths/index.html

California health officials are reevaluating the death of a 17-year-old boy from coronavirus, saying his case is "complex" and needs further investigation.

The Lancaster teen was initially described as the first known juvenile to die from the coronavirus in the United States.

The Los Angeles County Department of Public Health attributed his death to coronavirus Tuesday. Later that evening, officials backpedaled, saying his case needs more review by the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention....

 

Meanwhile:

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/coronavirus-georgia-mom-who-worked-hospital-found-dead-home-her-n1168386

A 42-year-old hospital worker in Georgia who had coronavirus was found dead in her home with her 4-year-old child by her body.

Diedre Wilkes' body was discovered Thursday in the living room of her home in Newnan, about 40 miles southwest of Atlanta, after a family member called the Coweta County Sheriff's Office requesting a welfare check, the coroner, Richard Hawk, told NBC News on Wednesday.

It's believed she died 12 to 16 hours before she was found, the coroner said.

A posthumous coronavirus test was conducted and came back positive for COVID-19, according to Hawk. Wilkes did not have any known underlying health conditions, and an autopsy is being conducted, he said.

Wilkes worked as a mammogram technician at Piedmont Newnan Hospital....

 

https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/coronavirus/nyc-nurse-who-treated-covid-19-patient-dies-another-hospital-reports-13-deaths-in-one-day/2344831/

A New York City nurse who had been treating coronavirus patients has died just one week after he was admitted to the hospital, and as personal protective equipment for those in the frontlines starts to rapidly dwindle, concerns for the safety of medical professionals grow.

Mount Sinai West nursing manager Kious Jordan Kelly was hospitalized March 17 and he died Tuesday. He was in his 40s and colleagues described him as compassionate and devoted to his patients....

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Bevo

Bevo 13577

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, FondrenRoad said:

Or you know, you could read clapclapclap's post where manufacturers have not raised prices, but retailers have, and are, in fact, gouging. 

And I continue to be anti-gouging. You guys are giving excuses for a roughly 1000% increase in price. 

To be clear:

It is a manufacturer not a retailer that is producing and selling the masks at $399 for a box of 100.

I don't normally buy from the manufacturer so I can't say that they were price gouging or they always overcharge for their masks.

I didn't say anything about price gouging (I think it was you who said something). I was only commenting that masks were available but they were a lot more than what I normally pay and probably a lot higher than hospitals are willing to pay.

 

 

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Hanrahan

Hanrahan 1306

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Posted
That question was also for other worldwide hot spots. Same demos for the parts of Italy and Spain?  What about New Orleans and Atlanta?  
What about the multiple strain theory/issue?  If we are dealing with two distinct things, they should be split accordingly. 


I think we should call the two strains Corporal Trips and the Wuhan Chinese Super Bat Flu Cough.
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clapclapclap

clapclapclap 9000

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Paywalled, but it's the only source I could find at the moment:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/new-york-mandates-nursing-homes-take-covid-19-patients-discharged-from-hospitals-11585228215

New York Mandates Nursing Homes Take Covid-19 Patients Discharged From Hospitals

State cites urgent need to expand hospital capacity; doctors group says decision ‘represents a clear and present danger to all of the residents of a nursing home.’

New York told nursing-home operators that they will be required to accept patients infected with the new coronavirus who are discharged from hospitals but may be still convalescing, amid more cases in the state that are straining the health-care system.

The decision will draw pushback from some nursing-home officials, who have warned that such moves endanger residents who aren’t infected by the virus, because discharged patientsmay still be contagious....

 

http://www.kbur.com/2020/03/26/entire-new-jersey-nursing-home-presumed-to-have-covid-19/

Health officials in New Jersey presume all 94 residents at a nursing home have coronavirus, as the United States’ death toll surpassed 800 on Wednesday....

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Thetexashammer

Thetexashammer 1062

Posted
Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, dcar00 said:

Its all going to come down to how they "estimate" the number of cases.  we are at 1000 deaths 2 months in.  there were 4000 deaths estimated 6 months into H1N1 which ended up being .02 where flu is .1. remember this is way more contagious than H1N1 or normal flu.  still a ways to go.

I'm really hoping the antibody tests show way more herd immunity than expected. Otherwise it's coming back again. The other idea is the one floated by that Peak Prosperity guy. He thinks if everyone wears masks when out in public, it stops the contagion.

Italy is going yard on containment measures. Now going to be shutting down almost all industry. They're speculating the economy could shrink 5 to 15 percent. I think it's a lot more than that. Many of these companies aren't gonna come back at all. Also, fuck closing more gas stations. Most of them are already closed. There's already literally nowhere to eat.

https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2020/03/26/we-are-entering-a-war-economy-italy-shuts-down-non-essential-factories/

Quote

Soave, Italy (AP) – Italy has become the first western developed nation to idle most of its industry to halt the spread of the coronavirus, a potential cautionary tale for other governments, such as the Trump administration, that are resisting such drastic measures.

After more than two weeks of a nationwide lockdown, the Italian government decided to expand the mandatory closure of non-essential commercial activities to heavy industry in the Eurozone’s third-largest economy, a major exporter of machinery, textiles, and other goods.

The move by Italy, which is leading the globe in virus deaths, is more in line with draconian measures taken by China than with declarations coming out of other democratic partners, who are at least a week or two behind Italy’s rate of virus infections.

The industrial closures put in stark contrast concerns over protecting lives in a country with an especially vulnerable ageing population against fears of hurting an economy that already was on the brink of recession.

The industrial lobby Confindustria estimates a cost of 70 billion to 100 billion euros ($77 billion-$110 billion) of national wealth a month if 70% of companies are closed, as anticipated. Though some big companies had already suspended activities, thousands of smaller manufacturers had continued after adopting new safety regulations, and will now shut down.

“We are entering a war economy,” said Confindustria President Vincenzo Boccia.


Economists grow dizzy speculating on the possible economic drag in a country that never fully recovered from back-to-back recessions the last two decades. UniCredit bank’s chief economist, Erik Nielson, expects the economy to shrink by a staggering 5 per cent to 15 per cent this year – and that’s assuming a recovery toward the end of 2020 and takes into account a 25 billion-euro aid package and 350 billion euros in liquidity and credit. Another 25 billion-euro package has been promised. The Italian Treasury has put the virus hit at 5 per cent to 7 per cent of GDP in 2020.

“The economic consequences of the suspensions risks to be unsurmountable, because the continuity of companies is being interrupted for a substantially undetermined period,” Il Sole 24 Ore, the respected business daily of the Confindustria lobby, wrote Thursday.

The government decree mandates the industrial shutdown for one week, but as with the rest of the harsh containment measures they are likely to be extended depending on the pace of contagion.

It’s a sobering prospect for other countries in Europe and for the United States, where President Donald Trump has said he aims to have commercial businesses reopen by mid-April, despite warnings from health experts that that is unlikely. There has been no discussion of closing U.S. manufacturing as a nationwide measure.

Unions in Italy have fought especially hard to have more sectors considered nonessential in order to protect workers. They won limits on activity at call centres as well as the production of plastic packaging, some paper and chemical products.

 

Edited by Thetexashammer
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ABSR

ABSR 5312

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, HiggyBaby said:

This study is interesting and lends credence to some who have been posting about symptoms etc going back to last year.


https://theweek.com/speedreads/904584/new-oxford-study-suggests-millions-people-may-have-already-built-coronavirus-immunity

The thing with this that doesn't seem to make sense is that if we assume an 80/15/5 split (or even one less sever) on minor/hospitalized/ICU then we would have seen a huge spike in people needing venting and dying from  "Pneumonia" like symptoms.   So to say Millions of people got it, it was minor, and are immune...but this occurred while no one experienced the more serious symptoms seems a reach.

Maybe Data shows that hospitals have been overwhelmed since January with patients having "pneumonia" symptoms and needing ventilation...but I don't think that is the case.

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clapclapclap

clapclapclap 9000

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For those who think most Americans aren't/won't practice social distancing, think again:

https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/prevention-cures/489535-poll-majority-of-voters-support-national

Poll: Majority of voters support national quarantine

A new poll from Morning Consult and Politico found 74 percent of registered voters either somewhat or strongly support a national quarantine to fight the spread of coronavirus.

In a poll of nearly 2,000 registered voters by Morning Consult/Politico taken March 20-22, 74 percent of voters support a national quarantine, limiting activities except essential trips, such as trips to the grocery store and the pharmacy. 

At least 40 percent of registered voters said they strongly support a national quarantine, while 34 percent said they somewhat support the idea. Just 19 percent said they were somewhat or strongly opposed to the national quarantine. 

Democrats are more firmly in favor of a national quarantine, with 81 percent saying they support the measure. A majority of Republicans, 72 percent, and independents, 69 percent, are also supportive of a nationwide quarantine. The survey has a margin of error of 2 percentage points. 

The poll also found few voters were optimistic in regards to when social distancing in the U.S. will end, with just 6 percent saying it will end in the next two weeks and 20 percent expecting to return to public spaces in the next month. While 27 percent predicted it will be at least two months, another 27 percent believed it could last longer than that. (snip)

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Bevo

Bevo 13577

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Posted

A friend of my parents died this week from an undiagnosed infection in Savannah. COVID-19 has not been confirmed but is suspected. There won't be a funeral now because of the virus and quarantines around the country. He was a friend of mine as well but he was around 80 years old and had underlying conditions. His daughter is married to a billionaire hedge fund manager who has offices in Boston and NY and is close friends with the Clintons. The funeral ceremony whenever it takes place will have a decent number of dignitaries there. My parents are pretty torn up about it and he really was a great guy. Sucks when stuff hits close to home.

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ABSR

ABSR 5312

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, BTW said:

I'm cross posting the analysis I just did:

Here's why comparisons to influenza appear to be erroneous.

-  There is no "herd" immunity to the SARS-CoV2 virus because it's new.  There is herd immunity to influenza (which is actually a class of many different viruses strains). Due to this only about 8% of the population gets the flu every year.  This herd immunity is also boosted by vaccines for which there is obviously none for COV2.

 - The average mortality rate of influenza is .1% or about 1/1000 cases.  The current estimated mortality rate of COVID-19 is 1.4% (14/1000) or 14x higher than influenza.

- The transmission rate of influenza (called R0 or R-naught) is ~1.3. Meaning each person with the flu will get 1.3 other people sick.  The R0 for SARS-CoV2 is estimated to be 2-3.  Meaning it's about 2x more transmissible than the flu.

So here's your mortality math assuming 350 Million people in USA:

Influenza: On average 8% get the flu so 28 Million.  Average mortality rate is .1% or 28,000/year. Actual Numbers

SARS-CoV2: Having no history to refer to, no one knows how many will get it, but with the 2x R0 transmission rate let's just call it 16% or 56 Million.  Mortality rate is 1.4% or 784,000 deaths.

This doesn't account for additional deaths from Non-SARS-CoV2 sources if the health care system is overwhelmed and can not treat/cure what would normally NOT be life threatening in other diseases or trauma.

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GreenspointTexas

GreenspointTexas 9601

Posted
Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, clapclapclap said:

For those who think most Americans aren't/won't practice social distancing, think again:

https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/prevention-cures/489535-poll-majority-of-voters-support-national

Poll: Majority of voters support national quarantine

A new poll from Morning Consult and Politico found 74 percent of registered voters either somewhat or strongly support a national quarantine to fight the spread of coronavirus.

In a poll of nearly 2,000 registered voters by Morning Consult/Politico taken March 20-22, 74 percent of voters support a national quarantine, limiting activities except essential trips, such as trips to the grocery store and the pharmacy. 

At least 40 percent of registered voters said they strongly support a national quarantine, while 34 percent said they somewhat support the idea. Just 19 percent said they were somewhat or strongly opposed to the national quarantine. 

Democrats are more firmly in favor of a national quarantine, with 81 percent saying they support the measure. A majority of Republicans, 72 percent, and independents, 69 percent, are also supportive of a nationwide quarantine. The survey has a margin of error of 2 percentage points. 

The poll also found few voters were optimistic in regards to when social distancing in the U.S. will end, with just 6 percent saying it will end in the next two weeks and 20 percent expecting to return to public spaces in the next month. While 27 percent predicted it will be at least two months, another 27 percent believed it could last longer than that. (snip)

Its too late for a national quarantine imo. Should have had a 3 week national quarantine 3 weeks ago. I mean, the states/local govts are doing their best, i guess.... but even they have fucked this up royally

Edited by GreenspointTexas
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LCHorn

LCHorn 2620

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Posted
29 minutes ago, clapclapclap said:

Meanwhile:

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/coronavirus-georgia-mom-who-worked-hospital-found-dead-home-her-n1168386

A 42-year-old hospital worker in Georgia who had coronavirus was found dead in her home with her 4-year-old child by her body.

Diedre Wilkes' body was discovered Thursday in the living room of her home in Newnan, about 40 miles southwest of Atlanta, after a family member called the Coweta County Sheriff's Office requesting a welfare check, the coroner, Richard Hawk, told NBC News on Wednesday.

It's believed she died 12 to 16 hours before she was found, the coroner said.

A posthumous coronavirus test was conducted and came back positive for COVID-19, according to Hawk. Wilkes did not have any known underlying health conditions, and an autopsy is being conducted, he said.

Wilkes worked as a mammogram technician at Piedmont Newnan Hospital....

 

 

Good God, well that ruined my day.  This is horrible. 

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PenelopeWitherspoon

PenelopeWitherspoon 19101

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Posted
18 minutes ago, Thetexashammer said:

I'm really hoping the antibody tests show way more herd immunity than expected. Otherwise it's coming back again. The other idea is the one floated by that Peak Prosperity guy. He thinks if everyone wears masks when out in public, it stops the contagion.

Italy is going yard on containment measures. Now going to be shutting down almost all industry. They're speculating the economy could shrink 5 to 15 percent. I think it's a lot more than that. Many of these companies aren't gonna come back at all. Also, fuck closing more gas stations. Most of them are already closed. There's already literally nowhere to eat.

https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2020/03/26/we-are-entering-a-war-economy-italy-shuts-down-non-essential-factories/

 

Italy's economy still has not recovered from the LAST recession.

Might be a good time to invest in a vacation home though.

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Johnny Sack

Johnny Sack 8397

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3 hours ago, closetojumping said:

 

I wonder how naive or right I am about Galveston being a better covered rural area. 50,000 people on the island, but UTMB is here and they have a healthy ICU situation plus an infectious disease practice. Being down here, for the most part, over the last 2.5 weeks, it's a fucking ghost town on the west side. We see maybe one couple walk by in the neighborhood daily. Almost no cars. Hummels and 7 Seas are decently stocked, blue crabs are back, and lights in the canal at night keep the trout and reds around. It's a crazy quiet way to watch the world end.

 

I believe Rocko posts on this site under the handle "Loco".

That was one of the funniest troll jobs in history. There is sum ting wong with you if you're upset about it.

Do you know if any beaches are open?  Was thinking of going to Surfside tomorrow to let the kids play in the sand.  Figure I can drive far enough down the beach since I have 4WD and stay far away from people.

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Beau Vine

Beau Vine 54226

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Posted

Leaders lead:

Quote

AUSTIN, Texas (CBS Austin) - The CEO of Texas Roadhouse restaurants is giving up his salary and bonus for the year in order to pay the chain's front line employees during the COVID-19 pandemic.

MarketWatch reports W. Kent Taylor will forgo his base salary and bonus from the pay period starting March 18 through Jan. 7, 2021.

In 2018, Louisville Business First reported Taylor's total compensation was $1.3 million with his base salary being $525,000.

The steak house chain said it is also suspending its dividend as it moves to conserve cash during the coronavirus pandemic.

 

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