Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

[Chet Steadman 940]

@blacklab I would be curious how the traffic on this thread compares to others over the years and at the TOS?

Aside from perhaps a few game threads, sur(e)ly (heh) this thread it’s up near the top all time right?

[Cheeseweasel 26438]

1 minute ago, Fondren & Main said:

Isn’t it sort of dumb to compare the U.S. to Italy? Wouldn’t it be more reasonable to compare the states to Europe as a whole?  

Probably a closer comparison, yes. But still not great. European countries (on average) have a higher population density than the US. 

[InkaUtexas 25918]

France railroad getting in the action to support. 

 

[Cheeseweasel 26438]

Just now, Jiggy-Z said:

that is where this is heading right now.

In no way are we headed to where Italy is. Perhaps NYC will see similar data, but as a nation, there's no way.

[Johnny Sack 8397]

11 hours ago, Pato del Muerto said:

If they are gonna be thick, they should at least be courteous enough to have huge tits. 

[atomheartbevo 89659]

1 hour ago, B00M said:

UT model of the Austin area, particularly the assumptions. Do you think we are on the 50% social distancing curve

Are people still running into grocery stores?   Are there still a shit-ton of people at work in Austin?  Their list of essential services who could go to work, should have instead been a list of people who should stay home, it would have been shorter.  

 I saw one woman instructing a couple of groups of crossfitters, keeping their group size down. Great, until you look closely and realize the crossfitters were close together, sweating, and breathing hard.   

That UT study came out Tuesday, prior to the stay-at-home order, so I would be surprised if we were 50% then.   I am seeing a ton of people out walking and biking, but also see the local Randall’s has plenty going in and out.  

I would be surprised if we were at 75% now.   

[Poe It Up 126]

My neighbor’s wife is a nurse at a hospital here in Montgomery county and they are keeping her completely in the dark. They won’t tell her if she has crossed paths with a coronavirus patient and she is worried about the lack of PPE. At the beginning of our conversation we were about 6-8 feet apart and by the end we were about 20. Backing away from someone without them noticing is an art form. 

[atomheartbevo 89659]

1 hour ago, fuggled said:

SIAP - Dallas County bringing in the National Guard to setup a temporary hospital.

https://www.texastribune.org/2020/03/26/texas-coronavirus-hot-spot-dallas-county-bolstering-medical-response/

Those doctors and nurses are drawn from the medical community where that NG unit is based out of.   

[PenelopeWitherspoon 19101]

So, here in Manhattan, it is really interesting.  Manhattan has a density of 72k per square mile.  However, Manhattan is 4th when it comes to number of COVID cases (4,026 of NYC's 23,112 cases) only comprising about 17.5% of NYC cases.  On deaths, it has 55 of the (15%) of the total deaths.

It should also be noted that in NYC, 97% of those who perish have other underlying illnesses.  Underlying illnesses include Diabetes, Lung Disease, Cancer, Immunodeficiency, Heart Disease, Hypertension, Asthma, Kidney Disease, and GI/Liver Disease.  Also, 75% of the deaths are people 65 and older.  Only 4% of deaths are those under 45, with none under 18.

https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-main.page

It is interesting that NYC has all these stats, but none on number of tests or recoveries.

Edited March 27, 2020 by PenelopeWitherspoon

[bolverk 29671]

6 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Are people still running into grocery stores?   Are there still a shit-ton of people at work in Austin?  Their list of essential services who could go to work, should have instead been a list of people who should stay home, it would have been shorter.  

 I saw one woman instructing a couple of groups of crossfitters, keeping their group size down. Great, until you look closely and realize the crossfitters were close together, sweating, and breathing hard.   

That UT study came out Tuesday, prior to the stay-at-home order, so I would be surprised if we were 50% then.   I am seeing a ton of people out walking and biking, but also see the local Randall’s has plenty going in and out.  

I would be surprised if we were at 75% now.   

That social distancing scorecard someone posted several pages ago, Travis County has about a 50% reduction in distancing. Its based on cellphone data I think, so obviously should be taken with a huge grain of salt.

https://www.unacast.com/covid19/social-distancing-scoreboard

(Right now, I'm getting error messages in loading - maybe too much traffic - but I checked it about an hour ago.)

Edited March 27, 2020 by bolverk

[JesusSweatDuck 17781]

6 minutes ago, Poe It Up said:

My neighbor’s wife is a nurse at a hospital here in Montgomery county and they are keeping her completely in the dark. They won’t tell her if she has crossed paths with a coronavirus patient and she is worried about the lack of PPE. At the beginning of our conversation we were about 6-8 feet apart and by the end we were about 20. Backing away from someone without them noticing is an art form. 

[Loco 3752]

8 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

Ok so the US and Spain each had about 4-5k confirmed cases 2 weeks and yet our death count is about a quarter of theirs despite having WAY more cases now.

Yesterday was their deadliest count at 718 and have had 4 straight days of 500+ deaths.

I didn't see what the count was, but Didn't Spain have it get into their nursing homes and the support staff just bailed...  Horrific stuff

They're also an older population

Quote

Speaking in a television interview, Robles said staff in some centers had left the nursing homes after cases of COVID-19 were detected. Residents were abandoned to take care of themselves, even though some were sick and in serious condition.

The defense minister said the government will take action against those responsible. "We will be completely relentless and forceful with the kind of treatment elderly residents receive in these centers," Robles said. "I know that a vast majority [of centers] are fulfilling their obligations."

Meanwhile, Spanish prosecutors have launched an investigation into the incidents. In Spain, around 19% of the population is older than 65; the country has one of the longest life expectancies in the world.

 

[JesusSweatDuck 17781]

5 minutes ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

So, here in Manhattan, it is really interesting.  Manhattan has a density of 72k per square mile.  However, Manhattan is 4th when it comes to number of COVID cases (4,026 of NYC's 23,112 cases) only comprising about 17.5% of NYC cases.  On deaths, it has 55 of the (15%) of the total deaths.

It should also be noted that in NYC, 97% of those who perish have other underlying illnesses.  Underlying illnesses include Diabetes, Lung Disease, Cancer, Immunodeficiency, Heart Disease, Hypertension, Asthma, Kidney Disease, and GI/Liver Disease.  Also, 75% of the deaths are people 65 and older.  Only 4% of deaths are those under 45, with none under 18.

I think there were some discussions about this earlier.  One of the thoughts is that the people that have longer commutes and spent more time on the subway/etc were more likely to contract it.  Being in Manhattan your daily commute was shorter.  Who knows though.

[atomheartbevo 89659]

34 minutes ago, bolverk said:

For the Surly Austinites, the City now has a dashboard giving details on cases (wish they or the County would publish a ZIP code map like Dallas).

https://austin.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/39e4f8d4acb0433baae6d15a931fa984

Notes (county data):

• 137 cases reported so far.
• The bar chart on new cases is promising, so far.
• No overall real gender gap, so far. (Edit: Should note that young women out pace young men, but older men outpace older women.)
• 56 percent of infected under the age of 40.

Age Group (Years)	Female	Male	Total
0-9	0	0	0
10-19	1	0	1
20-29	21	15	36
30-39	20	17	39
40-49	5	17	22
50-59	9	11	20
60-69	7	5	12
70-79	1	3	4
≥80	2	1	3
Total	68	69	137

 

I doubt they will ever do a heatmap. They seem very resistant to releasing a lot more info.   Adler also said on Wednesday that they don’t have enough materials to test more people, so they are mostly sticking to doctors, first responders, and those going into the hospital.   There appears to be independent testing going on though, I know our practice, ARC is doing it.   

[VABuckeye 2472]

11 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Are people still running into grocery stores?   Are there still a shit-ton of people at work in Austin?  Their list of essential services who could go to work, should have instead been a list of people who should stay home, it would have been shorter.  

 I saw one woman instructing a couple of groups of crossfitters, keeping their group size down. Great, until you look closely and realize the crossfitters were close together, sweating, and breathing hard.   

That UT study came out Tuesday, prior to the stay-at-home order, so I would be surprised if we were 50% then.   I am seeing a ton of people out walking and biking, but also see the local Randall’s has plenty going in and out.  

I would be surprised if we were at 75% now.   

There are more groceries in my refrigerator and pantry than I've ever seen.  More than when I had two teenagers in the house by far.  Of course, we are cooking every day so we are going through it without spoilage.

[GreenspointTexas 9600]

13 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Are people still running into grocery stores?   Are there still a shit-ton of people at work in Austin?  Their list of essential services who could go to work, should have instead been a list of people who should stay home, it would have been shorter.  

 I saw one woman instructing a couple of groups of crossfitters, keeping their group size down. Great, until you look closely and realize the crossfitters were close together, sweating, and breathing hard.   

That UT study came out Tuesday, prior to the stay-at-home order, so I would be surprised if we were 50% then.   I am seeing a ton of people out walking and biking, but also see the local Randall’s has plenty going in and out.  

I would be surprised if we were at 75% now.   

This. 

[bolverk 29671]

15 minutes ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

So, here in Manhattan, it is really interesting.  Manhattan has a density of 72k per square mile.  However, Manhattan is 4th when it comes to number of COVID cases (4,026 of NYC's 23,112 cases) only comprising about 17.5% of NYC cases.  On deaths, it has 55 of the (15%) of the total deaths.

It should also be noted that in NYC, 97% of those who perish have other underlying illnesses.  Underlying illnesses include Diabetes, Lung Disease, Cancer, Immunodeficiency, Heart Disease, Hypertension, Asthma, Kidney Disease, and GI/Liver Disease.  Also, 75% of the deaths are people 65 and older.  Only 4% of deaths are those under 45, with none under 18.

https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-main.page

It is interesting that NYC has all these stats, but none on number of tests or recoveries.

Looks like Queens is the hot spot.

	Population	Cases	% of Total Pop	% of Total Cases	Cases as % of Borough Pop
Bronx	1,432,132	4,232	17.1%	18.3%	0.30%
Brooklyn	2,582,830	6,095	30.8%	26.4%	0.24%
Manhattan	1,628,701	4,046	19.4%	17.5%	0.25%
Queens	2,278,906	7,362	27.1%	31.9%	0.32%
Staten Island	476,179	1,330	5.7%	5.8%	0.28%
	8,398,748	23,065

 

Edit: 0.27% of citywide population has tested positive.

Edited March 27, 2020 by bolverk

[MNLonghornFUKM 8817]

 

Ah ya I remember that. Talk about the unthinkable happening

[atomheartbevo 89659]

This is awkward.   Almost as awkward as Boris Johnson getting it.  

https://www.foxnews.com/us/dr-ian-lipkin-consultant-contagion-coronavirus

Quote

The infectious disease expert who served as an adviser on the 2011 movie “Contagion” has contracted the coronavirus, and now he’s warning that if it could happen to him, it could happen to anyone.

Dr. Ian Lipkin, the director of the Center for Infection and Immunity at Columbia University, revealed his case to Fox Business’ David Asman on “Lou Dobbs Tonight” on Tuesday.

“This has become very personal for me, too,” he said moments after coughing during the interview, in which the two had been discussing potential new treatments for coronavirus. “I have COVID as of yesterday. And it is miserable.”

He’s undergoing some kind of trial treatment.  
 

Quote

Applying his expertise to the current U.S. outbreak of COVID-19, Lipkin called for communities across the country to adopt standardized coronavirus restrictions, noting that, “We have porous borders between states, between cities.”

“We really don’t know when we’re gonna get this under control,” he added.

Lipkin said at the end of the interview that he is undergoing trial treatment for the virus and hoped to feel better soon.

 

[MNLonghornFUKM 8817]

My neighbor’s wife is a nurse at a hospital here in Montgomery county and they are keeping her completely in the dark. They won’t tell her if she has crossed paths with a coronavirus patient and she is worried about the lack of PPE. At the beginning of our conversation we were about 6-8 feet apart and by the end we were about 20. Backing away from someone without them noticing is an art form. 

I hope this was the same neighbor who was unloading bottled water at the same time you were returning from the shooting range

If so, checkmate

[PenelopeWitherspoon 19101]

2 minutes ago, bolverk said:

Looks like Queens is the hot spot.

	Population	Cases	% of Total Pop	% of Total Cases	Cases as % of Borough Pop
Bronx	1,432,132	4,232	17.1%	18.3%	0.30%
Brooklyn	2,582,830	6,095	30.8%	26.4%	0.24%
Manhattan	1,628,701	4,046	19.4%	17.5%	0.25%
Queens	2,278,906	7,362	27.1%	31.9%	0.32%
Staten Island	476,179	1,330	5.7%	5.8%	0.28%
	8,398,748	23,065

It is.  Queens and the Bronx both have some real poor neighborhoods, which I imagine is causing those to have more cases. 

[Beau Vine 54218]

1 hour ago, Bevo VIII said:

Imagine actually liking Clay Travis, yikes

Clay Travis is basically Redneck Skip Bayless.

[Johnny Sack 8397]

Berings on Weslayan and Bissonnet has hand sanitizer.  Limit one.  (713) 665-0500.  You can call and order for curbside pickup later -- they will hold it.  Just placed an order.  I keep a bottle in my truck for use when I have to go to the store.

[gyroprotagonist 2592]

any more news out of Mexico?  are they still in yolo mode?

[Loco 3752]

 

[gsoda3 3257]

1 hour ago, SHOOTER12 said:

Hell no, I wouldn't believe China if they told me the sky was blue.

well in china most of the time it isn't.  

 

[Jiggy-Z 3432]

30 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

In no way are we headed to where Italy is. Perhaps NYC will see similar data, but as a nation, there's no way.

Not what I was saying exactly.  What I was saying is rather than a 7 to 1 ratio of deaths to cases like we have right now, I think it ends up being more like 2.5 to 1 based on serious case numbers.  In other words hoping for that 7 to 1 ratio is wishful thinking based on the serious/critical cases ratio at this time.

[Thetexashammer 1062]

[C-Man 27222]

13 hours ago, C-Man said:

I had direct contact with a positive COVID-19 patient who wound up in the hospital and on a ventilator, have had symptoms since last Tuesday but no fever and I can't get tested despite my PCP recommending I get one. Tried through Baylor and Medical City and both through their online screening turned the test down. Baylor said quarantine for 14 days, which I've been doing already. Med City said I likely have a cold. I'll be keen to take the antibody test down the road, I guess. I think I'm finally getting out of this mess and if this was it, it was fairly mild -- but still not fun to feel completely run over for nearly 10 days or more. I haven't seen my kids in two weeks.

There's apparently a doc office at Preston/Belt Line that is testing. They do a flu and strep test first and then COVID-19 if those are negative. Or so my PCP has heard. The lack of available testing is really disconcerting.

Don't necessarily enjoy replying to my own posts but saw a note today that the partner of our friend (also our friend) had his test come back positive too. I'm not surprised. His case is extremely mild, though, it seems. It is entirely possible they were exposed and infected after we were together. The one that is in the hospital is a former AA flight attendant and now no longer flies. But he still works for AA and meets with current FA's all during the week so no telling who he was exposed to. That's what I'm clinging to on this.

[immamac 42846]

38 minutes ago, Chet Steadman said:

@blacklab I would be curious how the traffic on this thread compares to others over the years and at the TOS?

Aside from perhaps a few game threads, sur(e)ly (heh) this thread it’s up near the top all time right?

not even close.

[Cheeseweasel 26438]

14 minutes ago, Beau Vine said:

Clay Travis is basically Redneck Skip Bayless.

Wait, Skip Bayless isn't a redneck?

[mdmost 43001]

1 minute ago, immamac said:

not even close.

Like the Astros thread, does this one need to get broken into halves in April so it's not dragging the site down?

[InkaUtexas 25918]

7 minutes ago, gyroprotagonist said:

any more news out of Mexico?  are they still in yolo mode?

Not a lot really. Case numbers over 500. Government is still acting like they have it under control. Did see this gem though. 

CNN)The governor of the central Mexican state of Puebla told reporters Wednesday that poor people "are immune" from the coronavirus.

During his remarks, which broadcast live on YouTube and Facebook, Gov. Luis Miguel Barbosa posed a question, asking reporters which people were infected at the moment.

"The majority are wealthy people, you know," he said, answering his own question. "If you're rich you're at risk, but if you're poor, no, well us poor, we are immune."

There is no scientific evidence to suggest the virus effects people differently due to economic status. His remarks sparked an uproar on social media, with many questioning why a government official would spread information that has no basis in fact.

 

 

Barbosa noted that many of those who contracted the virus had recently traveled, suggesting a link between wealth and travel. Of Mexico's 475 confirmed cases so far, about 75% were connected to international travel, according to federal health statistics. As of Thursday afternoon, 44 people had tested positive for the virus in Puebla.

 

 

[Cheeseweasel 26438]

Just now, immamac said:

not even close.

I remember the Boston Bomber thread was lit.

Are the kids still saying "lit"?

[Liquor and Poker 3659]

20 minutes ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

 

It should also be noted that in NYC, 97% of those who perish have other underlying illnesses.  Underlying illnesses include Diabetes, Lung Disease, Cancer, Immunodeficiency, Heart Disease, Hypertension, Asthma, Kidney Disease, and GI/Liver Disease.  

I still think this is a mostly bullshit stat.  A lot of those are issues with a broad continuum.  They officially call all those over 120/80 “hypertensive.”   There’s a big difference between 130/80 untreated (me) and 145/100 treated.  But same category of “hypertensive.”

Better example- I had some incidents of trouble breathing after a basketball game in 4th grade.  Got stuck on a nebulizer each time.  Never happened again. 40 years later my GPA sends me to his NP for a cold.  First thing she says is “ do you carry a rescue inhaler around at all times to deal with your asthma?”  Somewhere on a chart that shit sits thereforever. 

Another example - My wife had a medication cause acute gallbladder inflammation and so she had it removed on the “better safe than sorry” scale 25 years ago.

So if we both catch this and die, I fucking guarantee I will be in the “he had asthma and hypertension camp” and my wife will be in the “she had GI disease” camp  

I want someone to tell me that, say, BP of 125/81 is a statistically significant higher risk for dying from this than 115/75. Not just that the dead are “hypertensive.”

[Loco 3752]

3 minutes ago, Thetexashammer said:

[triplehorn 2664]

38 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

In no way are we headed to where Italy is. Perhaps NYC will see similar data, but as a nation, there's no way.

The bad news is that Italy is a couple weeks ahead of us yet we have more cases than them today - most in the world despite the lag in onset.  Factor in exponential growth and it doesn't look good.  

[Chet Steadman 940]

1 minute ago, immamac said:

not even close.

Interdasting.  I’m be curious as to some of the others? 
 

I can’t think of many which have blown through the 10k, 20k and soon-to-be 25k replies as quickly as this one.  

[NoName 16351]

1 minute ago, InkaUtexas said:

Not a lot really. Case numbers over 500. Government is still acting like they have it under control. Did see this gem though. 

CNN)The governor of the central Mexican state of Puebla told reporters Wednesday that poor people "are immune" from the coronavirus.

During his remarks, which broadcast live on YouTube and Facebook, Gov. Luis Miguel Barbosa posed a question, asking reporters which people were infected at the moment.

"The majority are wealthy people, you know," he said, answering his own question. "If you're rich you're at risk, but if you're poor, no, well us poor, we are immune."

There is no scientific evidence to suggest the virus effects people differently due to economic status. His remarks sparked an uproar on social media, with many questioning why a government official would spread information that has no basis in fact.

 

 

Barbosa noted that many of those who contracted the virus had recently traveled, suggesting a link between wealth and travel. Of Mexico's 475 confirmed cases so far, about 75% were connected to international travel, according to federal health statistics. As of Thursday afternoon, 44 people had tested positive for the virus in Puebla.

 

 

[BurntOrange&White 39931]

The bad news is that Italy is a couple weeks ahead of us yet we have more cases than them today - most in the world despite the lag in onset.  Factor in exponential growth and it doesn't look good.  

Yup, exactly what I’m saying

[Beau Vine 54218]

4 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

During his remarks, which broadcast live on YouTube and Facebook, Gov. Luis Miguel Barbosa posed a question, asking reporters which people were infected at the moment.

"The majority are wealthy people, you know," he said, answering his own question. "If you're rich you're at risk, but if you're poor, no, well us poor, we are immune."

There is no scientific evidence to suggest the virus effects people differently due to economic status. His remarks sparked an uproar on social media, with many questioning why a government official would spread information that has no basis in fact.

Are those people new here?

[immamac 42846]

2 minutes ago, Chet Steadman said:

Interdasting.  I’m be curious as to some of the others? 
 

I can’t think of many which have blown through the 10k, 20k and soon-to-be 25k replies as quickly as this one.  

oh you mean as quickly? IDK other than game threads. Total views though aren't even at 750k yet.

[dcar00 14182]

5 minutes ago, immamac said:

not even close.

of course, this is the Surl, world wide pandemics pffft, now if the corona starts back up again in the fall and threatens college football/NFL I think we hit #1 with a bullet.

[Horn Dog 9840]

9 hours ago, ChiTownDoc said:

The problem is we are mostly testing those with fevers.  I’m betting there’s huge swathes of younger less susceptible people getting this and it passing with no fever.  I mean less susceptible to a serious bout of illness with COVID.   Hopefully we will know more w antibody testing.  

I think this raises  an interesting point.  IF there are huge numbers of people getting infected with no or very mild symptoms, and IF those patients are gaining some form of immunity during their asymptomatic course, then perhaps we can reach critical mass herd immunity faster then is currently projected.   Lots of IF's and unknowns but a potential sliver of silver lining. 

[achooloco 1067]

24 minutes ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

It is.  Queens and the Bronx both have some real poor neighborhoods, which I imagine is causing those to have more cases. 

Why would poor cause more cases? Aren’t the rich ski resorts and cruises also hot spots? 

[dcar00 14182]

16 minutes ago, Loco said:

 

OK Neil.

[Brisketexan 105121]

4 minutes ago, immamac said:

oh you mean as quickly? IDK other than game threads. Total views though aren't even at 750k yet.

What you're saying is....this thread needs either boobs or MS Paint if it's gonna have a chance to make the big time?

[Liquor and Poker 3659]

1 minute ago, achooloco said:

Why would poor cause more cases? Aren’t the rich ski resorts and cruises also hot spots? 

Population density at a micro level would be my thought. Rich folks in Manhattan live close together, but not like Section 8 folks do.  
 

Also access to better plumbing. 

[dcar00 14182]

1 minute ago, achooloco said:

Why would poor cause more cases? Aren’t the rich ski resorts and cruises also hot spots? 

I guess you could say in NYC the poor need to work and they don't work from home so they need to get to work on a subway or bus.

 I could possibly see a higher mortality rates or hospitalization in poor neighborhoods.

[triplehorn 2664]

43 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

 

In that first clip, note that the French are making chloroquine available to "certain" patients buy they don't specify which ones.  If I had to guess, they're using it on early uncomplicated cases.  It's looking more and more like once the hypoxia and pneumonia set in, it's a downward spiral.

This is an excerpt of a post by an ER doc in MS or LA forwarded  to me by an ER doc friend:

Quote

Plaquenil which has weak ACE2 blockade doesn't appear to be a savior of any kind in our patient population. Theoretically, it may have some prophylactic properties but so far it is difficult to see the benefit to our hospitalized patients, but we are using it and the studies will tell. With Plaquenil's potential QT prolongation and liver toxic effects (both particularly problematic in covid 19 patients), I am not longer selectively prescribing this medication as I stated on a previous post.

We are also using Azithromycin, but are intermittently running out of IV.

Do not give these patient's standard sepsis fluid resuscitation. Be very judicious with the fluids as it hastens their respiratory decompensation. Outside the DKA and renal failure dehydration, leave them dry