Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

[atomheartbevo 89,859]

191 out of 195 countries have at least one case.   
“Gather round kids, I can still remember when it was only about 15-20 countries that had the virus.”

And damn NYPD

Quote

At least 512 New York Police Department employees have tested positive for coronavirus as of Friday morning, a senior NYPD official tells CNN, up 161 from an official update by the NYPD Thursday evening.

Of the 512, 442 are uniformed members of the forces, and 70 are civilian members, according to the source.

4,122 – about 11% of the NYPD work force – are out sick, the official tells CNN.

 

[PenelopeWitherspoon 19,171]

6 minutes ago, achooloco said:

Why would poor cause more cases? Aren’t the rich ski resorts and cruises also hot spots? 

Think number of people cramped into one apartment, more time spent on public transport (ughhh).  Also, lack of healthcare/undiagnosed underlying conditions.  

 

Edited March 27, 2020 by PenelopeWitherspoon

[atomheartbevo 89,859]

3 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

What you're saying is....this thread needs either boobs or MS Paint if it's gonna have a chance to make the big time?

Or rumors about Tom Herman.  

[Cheeseweasel 26,438]

4 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

What you're saying is....this thread needs either boobs or MS Paint if it's gonna have a chance to make the big time?

You have my support.

[InkaUtexas 26,192]

4 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

What you're saying is....this thread needs either boobs or MS Paint if it's gonna have a chance to make the big time?

Wonder what it would be if the series of threads were added it up. Not like we have a discussions of a UT football came in the other sports thread. 

[GabrielsHorn 2,186]

Not all parts of Mexico are being oblivious to it at least. Governor of Chihuahua issued similar guidelines to El Paso and New Mexico a few days ago. 
 

I could talk about AMLO, but let’s not CR it up. 

[atomheartbevo 89,859]

8 minutes ago, achooloco said:

Why would poor cause more cases? Aren’t the rich ski resorts and cruises also hot spots? 

Many of them aren’t able to work from home and can’t afford to stock up a few weeks’ worth of supplies at a time.   So they are out and about.  

[Digdogger 1,344]

26 minutes ago, gyroprotagonist said:

any more news out of Mexico?  are they still in yolo mode?

Why stop there?  How’s Libya, Somalia and Yemen doing with their quarantines?

[NoName 16,416]

heh

 

[InkaUtexas 26,192]

 

 

[ChiTownDoc 21,175]

11 minutes ago, Horn Dog said:

I think this raises  an interesting point.  IF there are huge numbers of people getting infected with no or very mild symptoms, and IF those patients are gaining some form of immunity during their asymptomatic course, then perhaps we can reach critical mass herd immunity faster then is currently projected.   Lots of IF's and unknowns but a potential sliver of silver lining. 

That's why many of us are clamoring for antibody testing.  Henry Schein is going to start churning out those tests but not nearly fast enough.  If we want to get out of quarantine faster that's the key. 

[InkaUtexas 26,192]

Just now, Digdogger said:

Why stop there?  How’s Libya, Somalia and Yemen doing with their quarantines?

Built an international thread but was the only person there. Assumed it did not have the interest but agree. Kenya is locking down today. 12 hour curfew and threat of arrest. 

[Macanudo 13,019]

37 minutes ago, Beau Vine said:

Clay Travis is basically Redneck Skip Bayless.

That's an insult to rednecks. 

[Spankytoes 1,743]

19 minutes ago, triplehorn said:

The bad news is that Italy is a couple weeks ahead of us yet we have more cases than them today - most in the world despite the lag in onset.  Factor in exponential growth and it doesn't look good.  

How many citizens does Italy have compared to the United States?

[SHOOTER12 8,836]

27 minutes ago, gsoda3 said:

well in china most of the time it isn't.  

 

He's right you know.jpeg

[dcar00 14,382]

1 minute ago, ChiTownDoc said:

That's why many of us are clamoring for antibody testing.  Henry Schein is going to start churning out those tests but not nearly fast enough.  If we want to get out of quarantine faster that's the key. 

yep we need testing asap.  by end of April I would assume 20M+ will have had it and probably 100M by the end of this.  I wonder when the CDC is going to start estimating number of cases like they did with H1N1?

[Cheeseweasel 26,438]

4 minutes ago, NoName said:

heh

 

 

He looks like an asshole.

[smuggs 9,354]

5 minutes ago, Digdogger said:

Why stop there?  How’s Libya, Somalia and Yemen doing with their quarantines?

I believe these three countries are operating in yalla mode.

[InkaUtexas 26,192]

The Turkish government has cast aside a sample of Chinese-made coronavirus rapid testing kits after finding out that they gave inaccurate results, a Turkish official confirmed to Middle East Eye on Friday.

“We have received some samples from the company,” the official said. “We didn’t find them viable and ordered some other testing kit models from a separate Chinese company.”

The official did not say how many kits were concerned, while noting that they hadn't yet been used with the wider public.

The news comes as Spain revealed on Thursday that it had withdrawn 9,000 Chinese-made kits after realising that they had only 30 percent accuracy. A Czech media outlet also reported that up to 80 percent of the 150,000 portable quick tests that China delivered to the republic earlier this month were faulty.

 

https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/coronavirus-turkey-faulty-chinese-kits-not-use

[Cheeseweasel 26,438]

Just now, InkaUtexas said:

The Turkish government has cast aside a sample of Chinese-made coronavirus rapid testing kits after finding out that they gave inaccurate results, a Turkish official confirmed to Middle East Eye on Friday.

[NoName 16,416]

1 minute ago, InkaUtexas said:

The Turkish government has cast aside a sample of Chinese-made coronavirus rapid testing kits after finding out that they gave inaccurate results, a Turkish official confirmed to Middle East Eye on Friday.

“We have received some samples from the company,” the official said. “We didn’t find them viable and ordered some other testing kit models from a separate Chinese company.”

The official did not say how many kits were concerned, while noting that they hadn't yet been used with the wider public.

The news comes as Spain revealed on Thursday that it had withdrawn 9,000 Chinese-made kits after realising that they had only 30 percent accuracy. A Czech media outlet also reported that up to 80 percent of the 150,000 portable quick tests that China delivered to the republic earlier this month were faulty.

 

https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/coronavirus-turkey-faulty-chinese-kits-not-use

i guess we know why their numbers were so low! look at that failure rate! 

[Beau Vine 54,471]

7 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

 

He looks like an asshole.

Two engineering degrees from MIT, not what I was expecting from a Kentucky congressman...

[Liquor and Poker 3,659]

22 minutes ago, Horn Dog said:

I think this raises  an interesting point.  IF there are huge numbers of people getting infected with no or very mild symptoms, and IF those patients are gaining some form of immunity during their asymptomatic course, then perhaps we can reach critical mass herd immunity faster then is currently projected.   Lots of IF's and unknowns but a potential sliver of silver lining. 

If that were true, wouldn’t the rate of “new cases” drop significantly?  The “spread” would slow if herd immunity was achieved, right?  Regardless of how deficient testing is?

These are honestly questions, not critiques.  I really hope this is right.  

[Onboard 2.0 9,083]

2 hours ago, Bevo VIII said:

We’re about 3-4 weeks behind Italy

Nah,  more like 10 hours, do you even Greenwich mean time brah ??

[utee94 15,870]

10 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

iBuilt an international thread but was the only person there. Assumed it did not have the interest but agree. Kenya is locking down today. 12 hour curfew and threat of arrest. 

I'm good with discussing international COVID news here.  If the idea is to keep up with it as it potentially impacts us, then even the events in Kenya could be important to us.  It should be easy to steer clear of political discussion, aside from those who find it impossible to steer clear of political discussion regardless of topic or context.  Seems like most of those people have either cleared out or shut up, though, which is nice.

[Cheeseweasel 26,438]

Just now, Beau Vine said:

Two engineering degrees from MIT, not what I was expecting from a Kentucky congressman...

He's a smart asshole.

[Liquor and Poker 3,659]

12 minutes ago, Macanudo said:

That's an insult to rednecks. 

But not to Clay Travis.  At least Bayless has a worthwhile brother. 

[Pato del Muerto 52,640]

State of Kentucky is really lettin’er rip with their choices. Corona parties, Mountain Dew runs, senator spreading, and rep playing politics. 

[horn4life 3,784]

22 hours ago, horn4life said:

I am curious if there is going to be any pandemic ethics guidance for physicians going forward.  For example Gov. Cuomo was saying that some people who were dying were on ventilators for 20-30 days.  He stated that the longer you are on a ventilator the less likely you are to recover and come off of the machine.  So from an ethical standpoint is there not some sort of "cutoff" for number of days on a respirator when recovery becomes so remote that the patient should be removed from the respirator?  In other words if a person who normally recovers does so in 5 days on a ventilator, and there is almost no survival rate after more than 15 days on the ventilator, does 15 days become the ethical cutoff? The thought being that rather than extend the use of the ventilator another 15 days for the patient likely to die, is very low return.  When those same 15 days of ventilation might be used to treat and help recover 3 other patients (assuming 5 days or less of ventilation).

Would /will something along these lines become policy somewhere?  Even if only in classified Homeland Security files.

OR do we simply put folks on a ventilator until they recover or die and it becomes a first come, first served situation? It's going to be an ethics question a lot of doctors are going to be facing, and just wonder if you personally think there should be some sort of guidance or do you think it should be the decision of the physician? Family only?

Well now that the discussion is more open- now that we have seen a policy in black and white. Do you think such a policy should be administrated and determined at the lowest possible level, hospital by hospital?  This is sort of where I would normally trend, however I think State guidelines or even federal would be better.  As again a large part of my desire for actual guidelines is to in some slight way emotionally shield the physician making the decision from it all being "their choice."  

I doubt there will be any stepping in at the State or Fed level during the crisis, but I would like to have cool sober heads come with with state/fed guidelines after all this.  It's a discussion that is better had without being in the middle of a crisis. Basically it's triage, except your death decisions don't go quickly, and that has to weigh very, very heavily on the poor folks that  must contemplate making a decision.  Some docs will just go FIFO and take the decision making out of the equation. But for most docs it has got to be gut wrenching to even contemplate knowing that a death sentence for the person they are trying to help sitting in front of them, may sadly be the very best chance for the next several people in line.

God bless and protect the brave men and women going in every day to an environment of great and unknown hazards both physically and certainly emotionally.

 

[Cheeseweasel 26,438]

Just now, Pato del Muerto said:

State of Kentucky is really lettin’er rip with their choices. Corona parties, Mountain Dew runs, senator spreading, and rep playing politics. 

[triplehorn 2,664]

3 minutes ago, Liquor and Poker said:

If that were true, wouldn’t the rate of “new cases” drop significantly?  The “spread” would slow if herd immunity was achieved, right?  Regardless of how deficient testing is?

These are honestly questions, not critiques.  I really hope this is right.  

Right - given that percentages remain fairly constant for a country re observable hospitalizations/complications and deaths, you can extrapolate to those curves that would otherwise be verified by mass testing.  We're on the steep exponential upslope of the curve right now.  No brakes, no seatbelts.

[achooloco 1,086]

Cuomo on, talking about minimizing apex and stockpile of supplies. Damn, need 30 million surgical masks... that seems like a lot. Back to talking to bed availability. 

Edited March 27, 2020 by achooloco

[Cheeseweasel 26,438]

1 minute ago, triplehorn said:

We're on the steep exponential upslope of the curve right now.  No brakes, no seatbelts.

[Onboard 2.0 9,083]

Just now, triplehorn said:

  We're on the steep exponential upslope of the curve right now. 

This may be the most frightening sentence I've read this year.  Thinking about all those poor folks caught in the medical nightmare right now.

[InkaUtexas 26,192]

Iran Update. Concern here for me is few countries locked them down. They are still moving their militia into Syria and Yemen. Syria's borders are closed except for essential personnel and cargo coming in. 

 

[The_Great_Hornsby 3,286]

6 minutes ago, triplehorn said:

Right - given that percentages remain fairly constant for a country re observable hospitalizations/complications and deaths, you can extrapolate to those curves that would otherwise be verified by mass testing.  We're on the steep exponential upslope of the curve right now.  No brakes, no seatbelts.

This feels alarmist. The brakes and seatbelt are the lockdowns and social distancing. Cases should start to stabilize in growth this week. It's not like this thing is going to rise unchecked until every last one of us has had it. 

[dcar00 14,382]

2 minutes ago, triplehorn said:

Right - given that percentages remain fairly constant for a country re observable hospitalizations/complications and deaths, you can extrapolate to those curves that would otherwise be verified by mass testing.  We're on the steep exponential upslope of the curve right now.  No brakes, no seatbelts.

At some point we will start testing(meaning antibody or general asymptomatic testing) and then at some point we will stop.  CDC will estimate number of cases, hospitalizations, deaths.  As bad as this is I'm guessing 25K to 30K fatalities and 100M cases.  hospitalizations will slow if we can get to some form of treatment regimine.

[Horn Dog 9,959]

4 minutes ago, triplehorn said:

Right - given that percentages remain fairly constant for a country re observable hospitalizations/complications and deaths, you can extrapolate to those curves that would otherwise be verified by mass testing.  We're on the steep exponential upslope of the curve right now.  No brakes, no seatbelts.

Interesting.  I definitely am not saying we have reached or are near reaching critical mass immunity , just that we might get there faster then anticipated.   I am no expert in statistics, but wouldn't a model composed of a large percentage of asymptomatic carriers still result in a steep upslope initially until critical mass is approached?   I would in fact expect an even steep initial slope in this model since the virus is spreading even faster then expected.   If the slope is completely stable, that means that the news we are hearing of large numbers of mild/asymptomatic cases is false....  yikes.

[Cheeseweasel 26,438]

Just now, The_Great_Hornsby said:

It's not like this thing is going to rise unchecked until every last one of us has had it. 

That's exactly what the virus wants you to think! 

[utee94 15,870]

8 minutes ago, Onboard 2.0 said:

This may be the most frightening sentence I've read this year.  Thinking about all those poor folks caught in the medical nightmare right now.

Yeah, all of the folks noting hospitals in various regions were still sitting idle, no evidence of COVID patients yet-- it's all changing now, and for those still sitting idle, well, it's about to change.  Calm before the storm and all that.

I'm definitely sending as many positive thoughts as possible to those on the frontline, and doing what I can by staying home, watching Netflix, and trying not to hoard stuff.

Except for, somehow, I ended up with several cases of toilet paper.  I thought we were close to being out when all this began, so I ordered a couple of cases off Amazon back before they were out of stock.  And then I found a giant cache of it tucked away in the laundry room.  Now, I have a ton.

Sorry.

 

Edited March 27, 2020 by utee94

[The_Great_Hornsby 3,286]

1 minute ago, InkaUtexas said:

Iran Update. Concern here for me is few countries locked them down. They are still moving their militia into Syria and Yemen. Syria's borders are closed except for essential personnel and cargo coming in. 

 

They are lying so hard about their numbers. Amazing how so many countries fucking lie their ass off about the numbers. Read that like 300 people died in Iran from drinking methanol yesterday. 

[dcar00 14,382]

1 minute ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

This feels alarmist. The brakes and seatbelt are the lockdowns and social distancing. Cases should start to stabilize in growth this week. It's not like this thing is going to rise unchecked until every last one of us has had it. 

exactly.  I think 1/3 of the population getting it is likely.

[Slacks 6,888]

How many citizens does Italy have compared to the United States?

U.S. has 330M
Italy has 65M

5x

[InkaUtexas 26,192]

2 minutes ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

They are lying so hard about their numbers. Amazing how so many countries fucking lie their ass off about the numbers. Read that like 300 people died in Iran from drinking methanol yesterday. 

I saw the same. And I think all the Gulf States are lying as well. If this is running in the work camps of Dubai they will just lock the gates. 

[JesusSweatDuck 17,814]

36 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Or rumors about Tom Herman.  

I heard Nick Saban is shopping for houses in Austin.  

[Cheeseweasel 26,438]

Just now, JesusSweatDuck said:

I heard Nick Saban is shopping for houses in Austin.  

[The_Great_Hornsby 3,286]

2 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

exactly.  I think 1/3 of the population getting it is likely.

1/3 seems high, whats your timetable, I am looking at the next 2 months

[dcar00 14,382]

Just now, The_Great_Hornsby said:

1/3 seems high, whats your timetable, I am looking at the next 2 months

I'm talking through the end which is probably 12-14 months out.  next 2 months I think we get to 20M(estimated)

[InkaUtexas 26,192]

 

[Loco 3,754]

7 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Iran Update. Concern here for me is few countries locked them down. They are still moving their militia into Syria and Yemen. Syria's borders are closed except for essential personnel and cargo coming in. 

 

So the Casbah is getting rocked