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Against my better judgment and several beers deep, I have taken you up on this, potentially ending my streak of totally worthless posts. I have done 3 and 7 day averages only on the Worldometer data. 

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Daughter’s home. A little PTSD, we’re picking up Whataburger to help.

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Just try and imagine GreenspointTexas being the person to intubate you as you fight for your life against COVID-19. You’re laying there gasping for air while he chastises you for all the things you li

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The_Great_Hornsby

The_Great_Hornsby 3,276

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1 minute ago, dcar00 said:

I'm talking through the end which is probably 12-14 months out.  next 2 months I think we get to 20M(estimated)

I guess it all depends on asymptomatic cases and a variety of other factors (like how we decide to proceed moving forward with social distancing/economic concerns). But I think 20 million infected sounds very high over the next two months. We are at 90k now. That would require 200x the amount of people we have now to get infected. People are starting to take this seriously. Im sure the infection rate will slow dramatically soon. 

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triplehorn

triplehorn 2,664

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7 minutes ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

This feels alarmist. The brakes and seatbelt are the lockdowns and social distancing. Cases should start to stabilize in growth this week. It's not like this thing is going to rise unchecked until every last one of us has had it. 

It's just math.  You can look at the numbers 2-3 weeks ago vs where we are today.  If there were a significant percent of the population already exposed and asymptomatic offering herd immunity (a brake) we wouldn't be seeing the upslope we're seeing over the last 2-3 weeks.  The curve will flatten and start to slow down, but that will be observed more regionally in a rolling fashion.  It follows the hot spots today will be the first to show improvements in the curve.  To the extent some areas have better numbers over the long term, it will be those places where the population acted favorably early on re distancing and measures like school closures happened fairly early before communities had a true sense of urgency.

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The_Great_Hornsby

The_Great_Hornsby 3,276

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Just now, triplehorn said:

It's just math.  You can look at the numbers 2-3 weeks ago vs where we are today.  If there were a significant percent of the population already exposed and asymptomatic offering herd immunity (a brake) we wouldn't be seeing the upslope we're seeing over the last 2-3 weeks.  The curve will flatten and start to slow down, but that will be observed more regionally in a rolling fashion.  It follows the hot spots today will be the first to show improvements in the curve.  To the extent some areas have better numbers over the long term, it will be those places where the population acted favorably early on re distancing and measures like school closures happened fairly early before communities had a true sense of urgency.

Where do you think we are at case wise in 2 months? I think the social distancing and lockdown will slow the spread immensely. 

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Skipper

Skipper 6,189

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1 minute ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

I guess it all depends on asymptomatic cases and a variety of other factors (like how we decide to proceed moving forward with social distancing/economic concerns). But I think 20 million infected sounds very high over the next two months. We are at 90k now. That would require 200x the amount of people we have now to get infected. People are starting to take this seriously. Im sure the infection rate will slow dramatically soon. 

We are 90K 'confirmed' now.   Actual number is some multiple of that we'll never know.  Considering it's still pretty damn difficult to get a test if symptomatic in most places over a month since we first realized this was an issue and were bitching about it in this thread, I'm not really confident we'll ever have an accurate number of cases at any given time.

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MNLonghornFUKM

MNLonghornFUKM 8,817

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It's just math.  You can look at the numbers 2-3 weeks ago vs where we are today.  If there were a significant percent of the population already exposed and asymptomatic offering herd immunity (a brake) we wouldn't be seeing the upslope we're seeing over the last 2-3 weeks.  The curve will flatten and start to slow down, but that will be observed more regionally in a rolling fashion.  It follows the hot spots today will be the first to show improvements in the curve.  To the extent some areas have better numbers over the long term, it will be those places where the population acted favorably early on re distancing and measures like school closures happened fairly early before communities had a true sense of urgency.

I mean the upslope we’re seeing now is still from “normal” life still which to me was only 16 days ago
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The_Great_Hornsby

The_Great_Hornsby 3,276

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Just now, Skipper said:

We are 90K 'confirmed' now.   Actual number is some multiple of that we'll never know.  Considering it's still pretty damn difficult to get a test if symptomatic in most places over a month since we first realized this was an issue and were bitching about it in this thread, I'm not really confident we'll ever have an accurate number of cases at any given time.

We are testing more than any country in the world by a very wide margin, I would also mention that the rate of positive test is about 7% in Texas and lower in many of the less affected states. So yes, you are seeing tests being prioritized by being shipped to higher percentage areas like New York and New Jersey, which are both well over 30% positive rate. So I think the tests are being allocated properly to catch as many people as possible. You cant send thousands of tests to every city in America, logistically speaking. So yes, I am sure cases are being missed logically, but I mean, for the size and spread of our country, I would say we are doing a pretty damn good job. 

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MNLonghornFUKM

MNLonghornFUKM 8,817

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We are 90K 'confirmed' now.   Actual number is some multiple of that we'll never know.  Considering it's still pretty damn difficult to get a test if symptomatic in most places over a month since we first realized this was an issue and were bitching about it in this thread, I'm not really confident we'll ever have an accurate number of cases at any given time.

Same.
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The_Great_Hornsby

The_Great_Hornsby 3,276

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Just now, MNLonghornFUKM said:


I mean the upslope we’re seeing now is still from “normal” life still which to me was only 16 days ago

For many others that was 10 days ago. I dont think people started to take it seriously until late last week. That is why I laugh when I read that people said we shouldve locked down the country earlier. We are a stubborn group of people that will only take something seriously when its slapping us in the face. 

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triplehorn

triplehorn 2,664

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Just now, The_Great_Hornsby said:

Where do you think we are at case wise in 2 months? I think the social distancing and lockdown will slow the spread immensely. 

I haven't tried to do absolute numbers.  I'm watching for the change in the slope of the curve.  On the whole. we are massively spiking right now.  The good news is that epidemiologic math shows that even small changes to alter the rate of spread have huge effects resulting in lower total numbers visible after 3 weeks.  Acting even one day sooner to implement strict social distancing can result in 40% fewer infections after 21 days.  That is and has been happening to varying degrees regionally but big chunks of our country only really started a week ago.

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stone oak

stone oak 639

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2 minutes ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

For many others that was 10 days ago. I dont think people started to take it seriously until late last week. That is why I laugh when I read that people said we shouldve locked down the country earlier. We are a stubborn group of people that will only take something seriously when its slapping us in the face. 

LOL at people taking this seriously. Traffic has gotten progressively worse all week here in San Antonio. No one gives a shit here, for better or for worse.

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MNLonghornFUKM

MNLonghornFUKM 8,817

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For many others that was 10 days ago. I dont think people started to take it seriously until late last week. That is why I laugh when I read that people said we shouldve locked down the country earlier. We are a stubborn group of people that will only take something seriously when its slapping us in the face. 

True. My baseline is when the NBA suspended its season on March 11. A few colleges had previously decided it’ll switch to online before that. After the NBA we started seeing hoards of state, bar, league, church shut downs. We “should” see those effects on the graphs next week. Hopefully.
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Bevo

Bevo 13,593

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15 minutes ago, achooloco said:

Cuomo on, talking about minimizing apex and stockpile of supplies. Damn, need 30 million surgical masks... that seems like a lot. Back to talking to bed availability. 

There are 50,000 physicians and 273,000 RNs in New York State. Double that number for ancillary workers and you have 650,000 healthcare workers in the state. If you gave each healthcare worker 10 masks that would require 6.5 million masks so the 30 million number for the entire state for a month is not unreasonable. I would assume Florida, California, and Texas would need similar numbers of masks so 120 million masks are needed for the 4 largest states and maybe another 120 million masks for the rest of the states for a month.

But, remember not all masks need to be N95. Surgeons should still be wearing the masks that they generally wear and non-ICU and ER nurses should be wearing their standard masks as well. Shit, I'm not even sure why there should be much of a shortage since non-emergency procedures are being postponed and allergists, dermatologists, ENTs, psychiatrists, opthalmologists and such should be sitting at home with the rest of us.

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Mikey4

Mikey4 2,476

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We are testing more than any country in the world by a very wide margin, I would also mention that the rate of positive test is about 7% in Texas and lower in many of the less affected states. So yes, you are seeing tests being prioritized by being shipped to higher percentage areas like New York and New Jersey, which are both well over 30% positive rate. So I think the tests are being allocated properly to catch as many people as possible. You cant send thousands of tests to every city in America, logistically speaking. So yes, I am sure cases are being missed logically, but I mean, for the size and spread of our country, I would say we are doing a pretty damn good job. 
We shouldn't be in this position. We are the greatest country on earth. We should have made test preparation and allocation THE national priority at least by late January. By late March, we should have the infrastructure to test anyone who wants a test and isolate All the positive cases, even asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic ones.
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MNLonghornFUKM

MNLonghornFUKM 8,817

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I haven't tried to do absolute numbers.  I'm watching for the change in the slope of the curve.  On the whole. we are massively spiking right now.  The good news is that epidemiologic math shows that even small changes to alter the rate of spread have huge effects resulting in lower total numbers visible after 3 weeks.  Acting even one day sooner to implement strict social distancing can result in 40% fewer infections after 21 days.  That is and has been happening to varying degrees regionally but big chunks of our country only really started a week ago.

Well at least NY isn’t seeing a real upslope in their daily reports.
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The_Great_Hornsby

The_Great_Hornsby 3,276

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Just now, Skipper said:

Dude..... That's not even remotely true on a per capita basis. Our testing still fucking sucks.  Period.

Yeah, because our country has an enormous spread. We are not South Korea which is the size of Louisiana. We have tested over 500k people. And we are administering well over 60k tests per day. The most South Korea ever achieved was 18k per day. All I am saying is, testing on a scale and spread is extremely difficult and when we are blowing countries like France and Germany out of the water, then its hard to fault us for not administering 1 million tests per day. There is a limit to resources and what can be accomplished. I know we all want every single person tested, but its not realistic.  

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MNLonghornFUKM

MNLonghornFUKM 8,817

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We shouldn't be in this position. We are the greatest country on earth. We should have made test preparation and allocation THE national priority at least by late January. By late March, we should have the infrastructure to test anyone who wants a test and isolate All the positive cases, even asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic ones.

Agreed. We fucked this up from the beginning. At least most(some) have stalled social life for the time being. What we do with it now is up to us.
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Skipper

Skipper 6,189

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1 minute ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

Yeah, because our country has an enormous spread. We are not South Korea which is the size of Louisiana. We have tested over 500k people. And we are administering well over 60k tests per day. The most South Korea ever achieved was 18k per day. All I am saying is, testing on a scale and spread is extremely difficult and when we are blowing countries like France and Germany out of the water, then its hard to fault us for not administering 1 million tests per day. There is a limit to resources and what can be accomplished. I know we all want every single person tested, but its not realistic.  

You can't compare testing of the US as a whole to "South Korea, France and Germany" for the exact reasons you cited.   If you're impressed by our testing, more power to you and arguing with you is a waste of my time.    Everyone I've read or heard that knows what they are talking about thinks it has been and still is a fucking embarrassment and disgrace.

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The_Great_Hornsby

The_Great_Hornsby 3,276

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3 minutes ago, Mikey4 said:
10 minutes ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:
We are testing more than any country in the world by a very wide margin, I would also mention that the rate of positive test is about 7% in Texas and lower in many of the less affected states. So yes, you are seeing tests being prioritized by being shipped to higher percentage areas like New York and New Jersey, which are both well over 30% positive rate. So I think the tests are being allocated properly to catch as many people as possible. You cant send thousands of tests to every city in America, logistically speaking. So yes, I am sure cases are being missed logically, but I mean, for the size and spread of our country, I would say we are doing a pretty damn good job. 

We shouldn't be in this position. We are the greatest country on earth. We should have made test preparation and allocation THE national priority at least by late January. By late March, we should have the infrastructure to test anyone who wants a test and isolate All the positive cases, even asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic ones.

Well Mikey, that didnt happen, hindsight is 20/20, you should run for president. I think we were caught with our pants down but a lot of that had to do with shit info out of China. I think we have recovered beautifully though in the last week or two and are really responding quite well. 

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triplehorn

triplehorn 2,664

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3 minutes ago, Bevo said:

 Shit, I'm not even sure why there should be much of a shortage since non-emergency procedures are being postponed and allergists, dermatologists, ENTs, psychiatrists, opthalmologists and such should be sitting at home with the rest of us.

Normal quantities for restocking medical supplies got disrupted (I think cut in half in some cases) back in January due to the internal demand in China and other areas that got hit first by the pandemic.  So even without our surge in need for mass PPE supplies, there was an acute shortage by any standard.  Add that our demand has risen by some order of magnitude in a span of weeks and It's a deadly double hit.

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utee94

utee94 15,842

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7 minutes ago, Mikey4 said:
15 minutes ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:
We are testing more than any country in the world by a very wide margin, I would also mention that the rate of positive test is about 7% in Texas and lower in many of the less affected states. So yes, you are seeing tests being prioritized by being shipped to higher percentage areas like New York and New Jersey, which are both well over 30% positive rate. So I think the tests are being allocated properly to catch as many people as possible. You cant send thousands of tests to every city in America, logistically speaking. So yes, I am sure cases are being missed logically, but I mean, for the size and spread of our country, I would say we are doing a pretty damn good job. 

We shouldn't be in this position. We are the greatest country on earth. We should have made test preparation and allocation THE national priority at least by late January. By late March, we should have the infrastructure to test anyone who wants a test and isolate All the positive cases, even asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic ones.

Late January?  You mean, 7 or 8 days after China was still informing the world it could not be spread from human-to-human?

I think your expectations are... unrealistic.

 

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elguapo

elguapo 4,586

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4 minutes ago, utee94 said:

Late January?  You mean, 7 or 8 days after China was still informing the world it could not be spread from human-to-human?

I think your expectations are... unrealistic.

 

We had US intelligence agencies learning the truth in January, we should have fucking used them.

Or you could just believe whatever the Chinese say.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/white-house/mismanagement-missed-opportunities-how-white-house-bungled-coronavirus-response-n1158746

 

Quote

On Jan. 8, the CDC issued an alert about the disease. But the agency was without one of its crucial partners in combatting such a threat. The CDC would have worked closely with the NSC’s global health unit, but that had been disbanded.

U.S. intelligence analysts also flagged the mysterious Chinese outbreak. The National Center for Medical Intelligence, which is part of the Defense Intelligence Agency, reported in early January that 59 people had been stricken ill, a U.S. intelligence official told NBC News. Then the numbers quickly mushroomed to 548 sick and 17 dead, the official said.

“That gets your attention,” the official said.

 

Edited by elguapo
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Skipper

Skipper 6,189

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1 minute ago, utee94 said:

Late January?  You mean, 7 or 8 days after China was still informing the world it could not be spread from human-to-human?

I think your expectations are... unrealistic.

 

JFC. We were far behind every civilized country in the world late February when it was already circulating here.  That isn't even debatable. 

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The_Great_Hornsby

The_Great_Hornsby 3,276

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1 minute ago, Skipper said:

You can't compare testing of the US as a whole to "South Korea, France and Germany" for the exact reasons you cited.   If you're impressed by our testing, more power to you and arguing with you is a waste of my time.    Everyone I've read or heard that knows what they are talking about thinks it has been and still is a fucking embarrassment and disgrace.

You would be having aneurysms every day in all the other countries, bitching about how terribly they have handled it. I think we are doing a good job all things considered. You think we should be testing millions of Americans every few days or we are fucking up. People have unrealistic views of finite resources, just because you think something should be happening doesnt mean it is reasonable or plausible. 

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utee94

utee94 15,842

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1 minute ago, Skipper said:

JFC. We were far behind every civilized country in the world late February when it was already circulating here.  That isn't even debatable. 

Yes, late February.  Which is not the same as late January.  

I don't disagree with you.  But I'm also not talking about February.

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The_Great_Hornsby

The_Great_Hornsby 3,276

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4 minutes ago, elguapo said:

Ah the old "if you think you could do better you should run for President!"

The last argument of a true loser.

And being an armchair quarterback and saying we shouldve started prepping for this in January when China was lying their ass off about the disease is the sign of a true intellectual? gtfo 

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PenelopeWitherspoon

PenelopeWitherspoon 19,139

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Yeah, because our country has an enormous spread. We are not South Korea which is the size of Louisiana. We have tested over 500k people. And we are administering well over 60k tests per day. The most South Korea ever achieved was 18k per day. All I am saying is, testing on a scale and spread is extremely difficult and when we are blowing countries like France and Germany out of the water, then its hard to fault us for not administering 1 million tests per day. There is a limit to resources and what can be accomplished. I know we all want every single person tested, but its not realistic.  


NY is testing 18k a day allegedly.
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dcar00

dcar00 14,324

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Posted (edited)
34 minutes ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

I guess it all depends on asymptomatic cases and a variety of other factors (like how we decide to proceed moving forward with social distancing/economic concerns). But I think 20 million infected sounds very high over the next two months. We are at 90k now. That would require 200x the amount of people we have now to get infected. People are starting to take this seriously. Im sure the infection rate will slow dramatically soon. 

90K is the tested positive cases.  remember this thing is supposed to have a shitload of asymptomatic carriers and spread way faster than H1N1.  See every infectious disease expert known to man.

no one knows.  4 months into  H1N1 the CDC median estimated approx 80  unknown cases for median estimate of known cases of 38K = 3M.   6 months into H1N1, CDC then median estimated 221 unknown cases for every median estimated hospitatlization which was 98K. this gives estimate of 22M.  final estimat was 300K hospitalizations x 221 for 60M case estimate and then a fatality rate of .02.  20% of normal flu fatality rate.

IMO(and it is only that), we have 4M+ median estimated infected now and in 2 Months we will have about 20M median estimated cases.  In 12-14 months we will have approx 100M median estimated cases.

Edit: I had the math wrong from CDC bolded is the correct math.

Edited by dcar00
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The_Great_Hornsby

The_Great_Hornsby 3,276

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2 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

90K is the tested positive cases.  remember this thing is supposed to have a shitload of asymptomatic carriers and spread way faster than H1N1.  See every infectious disease expert known to man.

no one knows.  4 months into  H1N1 the CDC median estimated approx 80  unknown cases for median estimate of known cases of 38K = 3M.   6 months into H1N1, CDC then median estimated 221 unknown cases for every median estimated case(using the estimate above) which was 3.05M which gives you the 60M estimate and then a fatality rate of .02.  20% of normal flu fatality rate.

IMO(and it is only that), we have 4M+ median estimated infected now and in 2 Months we will have about 20M median estimated cases.  In 8 months we will have approx 100M median estimated cases.

4 million infected right now? Thats feels like a stretch

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Skipper

Skipper 6,189

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Just now, The_Great_Hornsby said:

You would be having aneurysms every day in all the other countries, bitching about how terribly they have handled it. I think we are doing a good job all things considered. You think we should be testing millions of Americans every few days or we are fucking up. People have unrealistic views of finite resources, just because you think something should be happening doesnt mean it is reasonable or plausible. 

I'll base my opinions on information from people that actually know that they are talking about.    This is from the 16th.   He posted a video 2 days ago still bitching about it.   

 

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Dahobbs

Dahobbs 17,639

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Posted (edited)
21 minutes ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

Yeah, because our country has an enormous spread. We are not South Korea which is the size of Louisiana. We have tested over 500k people. And we are administering well over 60k tests per day. The most South Korea ever achieved was 18k per day. All I am saying is, testing on a scale and spread is extremely difficult and when we are blowing countries like France and Germany out of the water, then its hard to fault us for not administering 1 million tests per day. There is a limit to resources and what can be accomplished. I know we all want every single person tested, but its not realistic.  

I've asked this before and I'll ask it again: why does geographic spread limit our testing capability? Is our capacity to manufacture tests somehow limited by geographic spread? Or is it our capacity to administer them? And, even if geographic spread had some marginal effect, something like 80% of population lives in urban or sub-urban areas. 

Isn't the more relevant question how many resources we should be able to dedicate to testing? And, wouldn't you expect the richest and most powerful nation in the world to be able to dedicate at least the same resources per capita as South Korea?

Edited by Dahobbs
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G650

G650 14,273

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8 minutes ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

You would be having aneurysms every day in all the other countries, bitching about how terribly they have handled it. I think we are doing a good job all things considered. You think we should be testing millions of Americans every few days or we are fucking up. People have unrealistic views of finite resources, just because you think something should be happening doesnt mean it is reasonable or plausible. 

Germany is kicking our dicks in regarding testing.

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The_Great_Hornsby

The_Great_Hornsby 3,276

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1 minute ago, Dahobbs said:

I've asked this before and I'll ask it again: why does geographic spread limit our testing capability? Is our capacity to manufacture tests somehow limited by geographic spread? Or is our capacity to administer them? And, even if geographic spread had some marginal effect, something like 80% of population lives in urban or sub-urban areas. 

Isn't the more relevant question how many resources we should be able to dedicate to testing? And, wouldn't you expect the richest and most powerful nation in the world to be able to dedicate at least the same resources per capita as South Korea?

Unfortunately, I cannot continue this conversation or I will be banned from this sub. 

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