Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

[Cheeseweasel 26438]

Just now, BrazilHorn said:

I wish Congress had included a "No Junk Mail/Catalog" clause in the stimulus bill. Don't love risking getting CV-19 just to auto throw away 99.9% of all the shit that I have mailed to me.

Yes, but don't you want to know that Bed, Bath, and Beyond cares about you and here is their Covid-19 plan with a 55% off coupon for towels?

[InkaUtexas 25907]

Fucking cruise ship back in the news. 

PORT EVERGLADES, Hollywood — Holland America cruise line confirmed Friday that four people have died on its Zaandam ship.

"Our thoughts and prayers are with their families and we are doing everything we can to support them during this difficult time," Holland America said in a blog post.

The ship is off the coast of Panama as it waits permission to go through the Panama Canal on its way back to Port Everglades in Florida. 

https://www.wtsp.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/holland-america-zaandam-ship-four-people-dead/67-fe9bb5c4-1275-48ea-9f3c-66944a7e179e

[dcar00 14181]

1 minute ago, Snacks said:

Infection rate only has to double 8 times to get to 20M.

Our current rate is 2.4x every 4 days. If that rate holds, we'll hit 100M confirmed cases by end of April.

That is unlikely to be the case. Theoretically, at this rate, everyone in the U.s. will have it by May 4, and the all clear would be here by June.

again, stop with the logic, math and numbers shit.   but to your point, we won't test that many people.  it all depends on what number the CDC wants to use as the estimate for number multiplier of undercounted cases.  for H1N1 they used 80 estimated for every confirmed cases 4 months from the first case.  H1N1 started in Mexico supposedly and we had pretty good idea of timeline though IMO there were some US cases that might not have been captured early.

for H1N1 states only reported 115K total confirmed cases but we extrapolated that data to 60M cases.

for CV19 due somewhat to China not being transparent this was probably rolling around the US for a month or 2 before end of Jan.

[NoName 16351]

1 minute ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Hold China responsible. Subtract our costs for this mess from their debt. Bankrupt their asses. 

 

we both know that isn't how debt works

[woohorn 1131]

This morning CNN took a question about O blood types being less susceptible to the virus.

Any basis in the virus world to blood types being a factor?

[Bevo 13576]

11 minutes ago, Snacks said:

Infection rate only has to double 8 times to get to 20M.

Our current rate is 2.4x every 4 days. If that rate holds, we'll hit 100M confirmed cases by end of April.

That is unlikely to be the case. Theoretically, at this rate, everyone in the U.s. will have it by May 4, and the all clear would be here by June.

Wouldn't the all clear be on May 4th, then?

[Hate 20108]

1 minute ago, Mikey4 said:

Agreed. On January 23, Wuhan went on lockdown. Between the time the lockdown was announced and the time it went into effect, hundreds of thousands of people streamed out of Wuhan by train and car. This was known and publicized in late January.

 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/01/23/wuhan-lockdown-police-guard-train-stations-cars-queue-leave/

 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Wuhan_lockdown

 

Around January 24 is when the viral (no pun intended) videos of Wuhan hospitals being overrun began to circulate.

 

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/distressing-scene-video-wuhan-hospital/story?id=68509728

 

By late January, it was obvious that the virus had escaped Wuhan, gone person to person, was extremely contagious, and was causing severe, life-threatening illness.

 

But as has already been pointed out ad nauseam in this thread, it was too late by that point.  The virus was around in mid-November.  We had direct flights from Wuhan to at least 2 major US cities daily for at least 2 months before that was stopped.  Christmas vacations happened where many Chinese citizens living in the US went home and vise versa for US citizens. 

[Mikey4 2476]

This very fucking thread started on January 22. 

But wait, China said it wasn't person-to-person, so the U.S. was totally justified to wait until mid-March to realize what the fuck was coming.

[dcar00 14181]

3 minutes ago, Mikey4 said:

Agreed. On January 23, Wuhan went on lockdown. Between the time the lockdown was announced and the time it went into effect, hundreds of thousands of people streamed out of Wuhan by train and car. This was known and publicized in late January.

 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/01/23/wuhan-lockdown-police-guard-train-stations-cars-queue-leave/

 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Wuhan_lockdown

 

Around January 24 is when the viral (no pun intended) videos of Wuhan hospitals being overrun began to circulate.

 

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/distressing-scene-video-wuhan-hospital/story?id=68509728

 

By late January, it was obvious that the virus had escaped Wuhan, gone person to person, was extremely contagious, and was causing severe, life-threatening illness.

 

agreed.

[Mikey4 2476]

But as has already been pointed out ad nauseam in this thread, it was too late by that point.  The virus was around in mid-November.  We had direct flights from Wuhan to at least 2 major US cities daily for at least 2 months before that was stopped.  Christmas vacations happened where many Chinese citizens living in the US went home and vise versa for US citizens. 

Oh, I agree it was too late to stop it. This thread is moving so fast, but if you back up, the point I am responding to is the claim that we were justified to wait on developing and circulating test kits. My point is that we should have been laser-focused on ramping up testing capacity by the end of January because everything we are experiencing now was foreseeable back then.

 

[Js1 85311]

4 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Yes, but don't you want to know that Bed, Bath, and Beyond cares about you and here is their Covid-19 plan with a 55% off coupon for towels?

Gonna need those towels when you run out of TP

[Macanudo 12976]

Just started reading the 247 page CARES ACT bill.  Gotta see how it impacts my line of work.  Whatever our lawyers are churning out isn't answering my questions.

[Helobious 9448]

6 minutes ago, Thetexashammer said:

Media took the straight line estimate, reported it hysterically, and hysteria ensued. It's not hard to understand why it's called the outrage industrial complex. The lie, on purpose, in predictable ways. 

 

 

The “panic” truly started March 11th. It was a rare specific day you can trace it all back to. That’s when Gombert tested positive, NBA canceled the season, Tom hanks said he had it, and the Nebraska head coach had to be taken to the hospital by ambulance during a game (Not corona related but still). All in a couple hours time. The very next day is when you saw the first runs on the grocery stores. Before that not so much. Blame the media all you want, but all that in one day was an “oh shit” moment for the public. 

[utee94 15811]

 

4 minutes ago, Mikey4 said:

But wait, China said it wasn't person-to-person, so the U.S. was totally justified to wait until mid-March to realize what the fuck was coming.

Who has claimed that?

1 minute ago, Mikey4 said:

Oh, I agree it was too late to stop it. This thread is moving so fast, but if you back up, the point I am responding to is the claim that we were justified to wait on developing and circulating test kits. My point is that we should have been laser-focused on ramping up testing capacity by the end of January because everything we are experiencing now was foreseeable back then.

 

And who has claimed that? 

[dcar00 14181]

1 minute ago, Hate said:

But as has already been pointed out ad nauseam in this thread, it was too late by that point.  The virus was around in mid-November.  We had direct flights from Wuhan to at least 2 major US cities daily for at least 2 months before that was stopped.  Christmas vacations happened where many Chinese citizens living in the US went home and vise versa for US citizens. 

agreed but actually a lot of Chinese stay here for our Xmas.  they go home for CNY.  China wanted to get to CNY(end of Jan this year).  bidness yo.  they can't have shit shut down in Nov/Dec/Jan.  They have to ship a ton of stuff before CNY.

There are reasons they did what they did. The thing I learned on this thread about Northern Italy having a large Chinese pop due to garmet business was enlightening and that a lot of it is Wuhan folks.  Those folks went home for CNY and came back.

[Pato del Muerto 52489]

8 minutes ago, BrazilHorn said:

I wish Congress had included a "No Junk Mail/Catalog" clause in the stimulus bill. Don't love risking getting CV-19 just to auto throw away 99.9% of all the shit that I have mailed to me.

We’ve ordered a few things from Walmart online, but they keep making fedex have us sign for delivery. We’ve asked fedex about alternatives and they demand a real sig on their device. It’s asinine.  So no more Walmart dot com for us unless absolutely necessary. 

[Skipper 6133]

2 minutes ago, Hate said:

But as has already been pointed out ad nauseam in this thread, it was too late by that point.  The virus was around in mid-November.  

The first known infected person period was November 18th i believe.  It's not like it magically spread to a scale where it was likely on every flight out of Wuhan 2/3 weeks later.  We don't know when the first person infected got on a plane to Wuhan for the US but there is no data to support it was widely spreading in the US in November or December.  

[ShaggyBevo RIP 3868]

Ohio's leading edge shutdown response graphed.. 

Edited March 27, 2020 by ShaggyBevo RIP

[Cheeseweasel 26438]

9 minutes ago, NoName said:

we both know that isn't how debt works

Yeah, I know. It was a bit tongue and cheek.

[Cheeseweasel 26438]

5 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Gonna need those towels when you run out of TP

Jokes on you, I haven't used TP in years.

[LABEVO 928]

UK is also fucked 

 

[BrazilHorn 6586]

1 minute ago, Pato del Muerto said:

We’ve ordered a few things from Walmart online, but they keep making fedex have us sign for delivery. We’ve asked fedex about alternatives and they demand a real sig on their device. It’s asinine.  So no more Walmart dot com for us unless absolutely necessary. 

I put the tracking # on my door with a note saying I approved the package being left behind on airpods I bought my son for his birthday. Not sure if Fedex will do it every time but in this case they left package

[Cheeseweasel 26438]

Just now, LABEVO said:

UK is also fucked*

*fooked

[MNLonghornFUKM 8817]

The “panic” truly started March 11th. It was a rare specific day you can trace it all back to. That’s when Gombert tested positive, NBA canceled the season, Tom hanks said he had it, and the Nebraska head coach had to be taken to the hospital by ambulance during a game (Not corona related but still). All in a couple hours time. The very next day is when you saw the first runs on the grocery stores. Before that not so much. Blame the media all you want, but all that in one day was an “oh shit” moment for the public. 

Agreed. That’s my starting point

[Pato del Muerto 52489]

1 minute ago, BrazilHorn said:

I put the tracking # on my door with a note saying I approved the package being left behind on airpods I bought my son for his birthday. Not sure if Fedex will do it every time but in this case they left package

Asked, and denied. 

[dcar00 14181]

12 minutes ago, woohorn said:

This morning CNN took a question about O blood types being less susceptible to the virus.

Any basis in the virus world to blood types being a factor?

rumor, nothing confirmed O less/A more, supposedly

[Macanudo 12976]

Some of the highlights with regard to Retirement Plans:

Distributions from qualified plans of up to $100,000 for those sick, with a sick dependent or laid off/furloughed/etc.  Aggregated across all of participants plans.

Maximum loan amounts change from $50,000 to $100,000.

The was supposed to be something about waiving Required Minimum Distributions (for those over 70.5 prior to 2020 and 72 after that)  but I don't see it.

[Bama Chick 28596]

Well now that the discussion is more open- now that we have seen a policy in black and white. Do you think such a policy should be administrated and determined at the lowest possible level, hospital by hospital?  This is sort of where I would normally trend, however I think State guidelines or even federal would be better.  As again a large part of my desire for actual guidelines is to in some slight way emotionally shield the physician making the decision from it all being "their choice."  
I doubt there will be any stepping in at the State or Fed level during the crisis, but I would like to have cool sober heads come with with state/fed guidelines after all this.  It's a discussion that is better had without being in the middle of a crisis. Basically it's triage, except your death decisions don't go quickly, and that has to weigh very, very heavily on the poor folks that  must contemplate making a decision.  Some docs will just go FIFO and take the decision making out of the equation. But for most docs it has got to be gut wrenching to even contemplate knowing that a death sentence for the person they are trying to help sitting in front of them, may sadly be the very best chance for the next several people in line.
God bless and protect the brave men and women going in every day to an environment of great and unknown hazards both physically and certainly emotionally.
 

Alabama Department of Public Health already had a protocol on the books from 2010 for ventilator rationing guidelines before this hit.

If Alabama has such guidelines, I’m guessing many other states do to - were not exactly on the cutting edge when it comes to innovation in the public health.

Officials have come out and said the law “isn’t a directive” (whatever that means) but I think they’re just trying to calm people down and avoid any lawsuits. An advocacy group for the mentally challenged has announced they will challenge the law.

https://www.montgomeryadvertiser.com/story/news/2020/03/24/alabama-ventilator-use-rules-coronavirus-is-a-measure-of-last-resort-not-a-directive/2903115001/

The Alabama Department of Public Health said Tuesday that a 2010 protocol on the use of ventilators in case of a shortage, which suggests some groups could be excluded during a major emergency, is “not a directive.”

The protocol says that if a hospital exhausts all other resources to provide access to ventilators, it may shift their use away from individuals suffering end-stage organ failure, including neurological failure.

“Decision(s) for care remain those of the medical professional, as the treating provider, in discussion with the patient and the patient’s family,” ADPH said in a statement Tuesday. “Sometimes clinicians at the bedside will be faced with very difficult decisions, and in a true catastrophe, clinicians will be tasked with making the best possible decisions.”

Ventilators help patients who have lost the ability to breathe on their own. There are rising concerns about how equipped American hospitals are to handle large influxes of cases, as currently seen in Italy. Extreme cases that require ongoing medical treatment often require ventilators, which hospitals have a limited supply of.

The 2010 protocol stresses that it should only go into effect after all other options are gone.

“Measures of last resort” may be applied “after thorough evaluation and consultation with available external sources to confirm that partner hospital resources, usual supplier resources, and resources obtainable through the collaborative efforts of the Department of Public Health through AIMS (Alabama Incident Management System) are all exhausted," the protocol says.

The triage protocol, dated April 9, 2010, describes procedures to make ventilators available “during a mass casualty event, proclaimed as a public health emergency by the governor.”

“It would be characterized by frequent, widespread cases of respiratory failure occurring in sufficient volume to quickly exhaust available mechanical ventilator resources,” the protocol states. “One example might include, not exclusively, a virulently aggressive form of pandemic influenza.”

The document goes on to say that “some mass casualty disasters, such as a pandemic event, may necessitate that commonly accepted standards of medical care be altered to provide the maximum number of patients their best chance of survival.”

"Disaster-related ventilator triage protocols must be evenly and fairly implemented if public trust is to be gained and maintained during a time of such extreme duress," the statement says.

If the facility was unable to provide ventilator care to all patients, it would activate Tier I, meaning it could exclude patients in end-of-life situations, including acute renal failure; severe neurological disorders and aggressive cancers with poor survival rates, like pancreatic cancer.

The protocol also states that "persons with severe or profound mental retardation, moderate to severe dementia, or catastrophic neurological complications such as persistent vegetative state are unlikely candidates for ventilator support." Individuals with AIDS may also be excluded, though the protocol says that the presence of HIV "is not an automatic exclusion."

All decisions would rest with the clinician; an evaluation of the degree of organ failure the patient experienced, and the resources available.

If a patient does not qualify for a ventilator, health care workers would be directed to provide supportive or palliative care.

If the hospital “exhausts all needed resources to maintain Tier I,” the hospital could proceed to Tier II and withdraw ventilator support from those who fail to respond to ventilation or other support measures. Patients would have to be assessed at 48 and 120 hours.

If the hospital exhausted resources under that criteria, it could advance to Tier III. The facility could restrict treatment “based on disease-specific epidemiology and survival data for patient subgroups,” which could include orders based on age. The hospital could also expand the list of disease cases where it would not offer ventilator support.

[InkaUtexas 25907]

 

[MNLonghornFUKM 8817]

Ohio's leading edge shutdown response graphed.. 

Well 1 point 3 acres daily graph has Ohio going from 8 to 13 and 13 to 28 daily cases on those 2 days so someone’s wrong

[Cheeseweasel 26438]

Just now, Bama Chick said:

An advocacy group for the mentally challenged has announced they will challenge the law.

I assume this covers 99.5% of the State?

[HenryJames 66041]

Just now, InkaUtexas said:

 

He also decreed that the barn door should be closed. 

[dcar00 14181]

6 minutes ago, Helobious said:

The “panic” truly started March 11th. It was a rare specific day you can trace it all back to. That’s when Gombert tested positive, NBA canceled the season, Tom hanks said he had it, and the Nebraska head coach had to be taken to the hospital by ambulance during a game (Not corona related but still). All in a couple hours time. The very next day is when you saw the first runs on the grocery stores. Before that not so much. Blame the media all you want, but all that in one day was an “oh shit” moment for the public. 

agreed with this.  wife went to costco that day and got 1 of those 30 TP packs.  we had about 10 rolls in the house.  kept asking me if we should get more(as well as other stuff) and I said no we don't need a 60-100 rolls of TP.   We will get some in 2 weeks if we really think we need it. ha.

[MaybeACoordinator 8349]

29 minutes ago, LABEVO said:

 

Yeah and he was one of those Jesus freaks who goes to Mardi Gras every year to try to guilt trip drunks. Those dudes should be patrolling on Ash Wednesday, not in the thick of shit. 

[Macanudo 12976]

1 minute ago, dcar00 said:

agreed with this.  wife went to costco that day and got 1 of those 30 TP packs.  we had about 10 rolls in the house.  kept asking me if we should get more(as well as other stuff) and I said no we don't need a 60-100 rolls of TP.   We will get some in 2 weeks if we really think we need it. ha.

Get it from where?!?

[G650 14249]

19 minutes ago, woohorn said:

This morning CNN took a question about O blood types being less susceptible to the virus.

Any basis in the virus world to blood types being a factor?

I hope so as an O positive man myself.

[clapclapclap 9000]

Nothing to see here, move along:

 

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/china-shuts-down-all-cinemas-again-1287040

China Shuts Down All Cinemas, Again

Over the past two weeks, hundreds of movie theaters in the country had begun to reopen. No reason for the policy reversal was given, but insiders believe the government is worried about a potential second wave of coronavirus infections.

...The decision comes as a shock given the signals authorities had been sending as recently as a day ago. On Thursday, Shanghai's municipal government announced that 205 of the city's movie theaters had received permission to resume business on Saturday. Earlier in the week, China Film Group, the dominant state-backed distributor, unveiled a plan to let cinemas rerelease past blockbusters to help lure customers back into seats. The scheme was to entail both local hits, such as Wolf Warrior 2 and The Wandering Earth, and Hollywood-made product, such as the full Avengers franchise and last year's Oscar best picture winner, Green Book. 

The phased reopening of China's vast network of 70,000 movie screens had promised a rare bright spot on the global distribution map, given that cinemas are shuttered in virtually every other major market around the globe, including North America, Europe, Japan and elsewhere. Beijing's decision to reclose — or stay closed — was met with dismay by stakeholders throughout the Chinese industry.

"This second closure will not be a one- or two-week issue," an executive at a major exhibition company told The Hollywood Reporter, asking not to be named because of the sensitivity of commenting on government policy related to the coronavirus. "They are going to be even more cautious when they attempt to reopen again — and this will set us back a long time."

Many production and distribution executives were frustrated for their own reasons. Regulators have been discouraging — in effect, ordering — studios not to sell their unreleased feature films to local streaming services, saying that they must hold back the titles to aid in the eventual reboot of the country's theatrical exhibition infrastructure....

[ChiTownDoc 21151]

21 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Hold China responsible. Subtract our costs for this mess from their debt. Bankrupt their asses. 

 

We should take their fucking wall and put it on our southern border.  It's already built.  Why the fuck not?  

[bolverk 29660]

11 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

again, stop with the logic, math and numbers shit.   but to your point, we won't test that many people.  it all depends on what number the CDC wants to use as the estimate for number multiplier of undercounted cases.  for H1N1 they used 80 estimated for every confirmed cases 4 months from the first case.  H1N1 started in Mexico supposedly and we had pretty good idea of timeline though IMO there were some US cases that might not have been captured early.

for H1N1 states only reported 115K total confirmed cases but we extrapolated that data to 60M cases.

for CV19 due somewhat to China not being transparent this was probably rolling around the US for a month or 2 before end of Jan.

The infection of patient zero is estimated to have occurred in Wuhan in mid-November and was an evident problem with potentially global implications within 2 months of that point, meaning mid- to late-January. That coincides precisely with it showing up on the football board for a bunch of fat, lazy, drunk, Texas football fans who spend their whole day fucking around on the internet posting memes and shit.

If you're actually postulating that it was circulating in the good ol' USA for the same time frame and it's only now an issue, then I don't think you understand what the word "logic" means.

[ChiTownDoc 21151]

2 minutes ago, G650 said:

I hope so as an O positive man myself.

I knew you were superior to most of these other yokels.  Makes sense, comrade. 

[dcar00 14181]

2 minutes ago, clapclapclap said:

Nothing to see here, move along:

 

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/china-shuts-down-all-cinemas-again-1287040

China Shuts Down All Cinemas, Again

Over the past two weeks, hundreds of movie theaters in the country had begun to reopen. No reason for the policy reversal was given, but insiders believe the government is worried about a potential second wave of coronavirus infections.

...The decision comes as a shock given the signals authorities had been sending as recently as a day ago. On Thursday, Shanghai's municipal government announced that 205 of the city's movie theaters had received permission to resume business on Saturday. Earlier in the week, China Film Group, the dominant state-backed distributor, unveiled a plan to let cinemas rerelease past blockbusters to help lure customers back into seats. The scheme was to entail both local hits, such as Wolf Warrior 2 and The Wandering Earth, and Hollywood-made product, such as the full Avengers franchise and last year's Oscar best picture winner, Green Book. 

The phased reopening of China's vast network of 70,000 movie screens had promised a rare bright spot on the global distribution map, given that cinemas are shuttered in virtually every other major market around the globe, including North America, Europe, Japan and elsewhere. Beijing's decision to reclose — or stay closed — was met with dismay by stakeholders throughout the Chinese industry.

"This second closure will not be a one- or two-week issue," an executive at a major exhibition company told The Hollywood Reporter, asking not to be named because of the sensitivity of commenting on government policy related to the coronavirus. "They are going to be even more cautious when they attempt to reopen again — and this will set us back a long time."

Many production and distribution executives were frustrated for their own reasons. Regulators have been discouraging — in effect, ordering — studios not to sell their unreleased feature films to local streaming services, saying that they must hold back the titles to aid in the eventual reboot of the country's theatrical exhibition infrastructure....

China's test bad.

[dcar00 14181]

2 minutes ago, bolverk said:

The infection of patient zero is estimated to have occurred in Wuhan in mid-November and was an evident problem with potentially global implications within 2 months of that point, meaning mid- to late-January. That coincides precisely with it showing up on the football board for a bunch of fat, lazy, drunk, Texas football fans who spend their whole day fucking around on the internet posting memes and shit.

If you're actually postulating that it was circulating in the good ol' USA for the same time frame and it's only now an issue, then I don't think you understand what the word "logic" means.

whatever

[BrazilHorn 6586]

Just now, dcar00 said:

China's test bad.

But there are no new cases 🙂

[InkaUtexas 25907]

Oklahoma for the win. 

 

[conVINCEd 21469]

6 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

We should take their fucking wall and put it on our southern border.  It's already built.  Why the fuck not?  

Shipping and handling would be a bitch.

[Mikey4 2476]

20 minutes ago, utee94 said:

 

Who has claimed that?

And who has claimed that? 

https://www.surlyhorns.com/board/index.php?/topic/13391-dt-covid-19-no-politics-allowed/page/501/&tab=comments#comment-2155786

 

[G650 14249]

3 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

I knew you were superior to most of these other yokels.  Makes sense, comrade. 

The Elite™

[dcar00 14181]

Just now, InkaUtexas said:

Oklahoma for the win. 

 

that is fucking awesome.

[BurntOrange&White 39931]

 

Thoughts and prayers

[dcar00 14181]

9 minutes ago, Macanudo said:

Get it from where?!?

thats why the "ha" at the end.  we have an HEB pick up scheduled for next Tues.  hoping we get an early Easter gift. its either that a 6AM wakeup on a Wednesday.