Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

[Neonmoon 38130]

Italy is the worst currently at 10K. Since we have 6 times their population, let’s start at 60K deaths. Even if we fuck up worse than Italy, I just don’t see how anyone is adding another 100K to that number. 

[Johnny Sack 8397]

6 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

Under. Easily under 

I hope you are right.  

[Johnny Sack 8397]

Just now, Neonmoon said:

Italy is the worst currently at 10K. Since we have 6 times their population, let’s start at 60K deaths. Even if we fuck up worse than Italy, I just don’t see how anyone is adding another 100K to that number. 

Italy isn't done dying. I do not think that on a per capita basis we will come close to their deaths though.

Edited March 29, 2020 by Johnny Sack

[bigup2dahorns 3343]

[VABuckeye 2472]

As our serious/critical approaches that of Italy we are quickly getting near their daily numbers.   Unfortunately I think in the next ten days we will blow by their serious/critical numbers. 

Edited March 29, 2020 by VABuckeye

[Mitch Cumsteen 18598]

Knicks owner James Dolan got the rona.

Knick fan handling it with all the class and dignity you wound expect on Twitter. Don't wish this shit on anybody, but I did get some good laughs out of it tonight. 

[EuroHorn 3272]

22 minutes ago, Parliament said:

Apologies if this is posted upthread.  It has an "interactive curve."  The peak for all of the US is April 14.  Texas is April 18.  Spring comes later in North Dakota and we don't peak until April 25.

 

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

Projected deaths is 83,000 and 160,000 on the high side

Edited March 29, 2020 by EuroHorn

[gmr548 16617]

Just now, Mitch Cumsteen said:

Knicks owner James Dolan got the rona.

Knick fan handling it with all the class and dignity you wound expect on Twitter. Don't wish this shit on anybody, but I did get some good laughs out of it tonight. 

I am pretty sure the Knicks would still miss the playoffs if the entire rest of the NBA had corona and they were somehow immune.

[DDD Dad 14364]

Yes.  Year end.  Where would you set it?  I feel like 200,000 is going to be close.  I also think a significant portion of that 200,000 would have been dead year end regardless.  Will be interesting to see how the total death rate is impacted.  There will be less deaths from the flu than normal because of precautions.  Less motor vehicle deaths.  More suicides.

[Jersey Man10 3553]

So we all gonna die or what?

[Dahobbs 17704]

8 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

Italy is the worst currently at 10K. Since we have 6 times their population, let’s start at 60K deaths. Even if we fuck up worse than Italy, I just don’t see how anyone is adding another 100K to that number. 

Italy started locking things down in the Lombardy region at 200 cases and 7 deaths. They locked down nationwide at  8,000 cases and 463 deaths.  We still have idiots in Florida at the beach. It is going to get very bad here. 

Edited March 29, 2020 by Dahobbs

[conVINCEd 21473]

Just now, Mitch Cumsteen said:

Knicks owner James Dolan got the rona.

Knick fan handling it with all the class and dignity you wound expect on Twitter. Don't wish this shit on anybody, but I did get some good laughs out of it tonight. 

I do understand though.  I’m a Cowboys fan.  Dolan is basically Jerry’s special needs little brother.

 

[DDD Dad 14364]

So we all gonna die or what?

Some of us sooner than others.

[DalTxHornFan 3121]

Under.  And I'm talking about those who actually died of it vs. those who had it and also died.  To that point, I am dubious as to the accuracy of numbers coming from Italy, Louisiana and China.  The first two being potential overcounts and China undercounting.  My suspicions relate from  them being outliers in the deaths per million in population stats (plus, I don't trust the ChiComs.)   

[triplehorn 2664]

1 hour ago, Treefidy said:

If you have just 1 n95 the balaclava would be a good cover up to keep the mask cleaner longer.  I personally think they would be pretty high up on the alternative materials chart posted somewhere back thread.  Not vacuum cleaner bag good but easily dish towel good.  The multi layer plus a somewhat pleated effect from bunching is logically a good thing.

went to the grocery store for the first time in awhile today and wore a balaclava pulled back like a neck warmer and pulled it up above my nose and half my ears.  I layered in a  folded cotton towelette under the balaclava that also covered my nose and mouth.  So 3 layers.  balaclava also pins the towel to your nose and mouth underneath well.  Wore nitrile gloves and ditched em outside.  Lot of other people were wearing respirators and masks, compared to maybe one or two people a couple weeks ago.  I can breathe normally with that rig and not feel my breath with my hand close outside.  it definitely would grab 'most' of anything coming from me talking or sneezing.  despite all that, if the store was crowded I would have bailed.  

[dcar00 14382]

2 minutes ago, EuroHorn said:

Projected deaths is 83,000 and 160,000 on the high side

mid range 2x the flu which is about what I have been thinking.  if they can find a good treatment(not a vax)in the next month I think it could slow down

[Johnny Sack 8397]

4 minutes ago, EuroHorn said:

Projected deaths is 83,000 and 160,000 on the high side

I don't have any agenda in this.  Just my gut feeling.  I think it will be more than the high side.  I truly, truly, truly pray that I am wrong.  This disease isn't super deadly.  But it appears to be super contagious.  And that, in my gut, is what tells me this thing takes out more than 160k by 12-31-20.

[Wally Fairway 5593]

France going all in on masks

Orders 1,000,000,000 (that's billion, with a b), and that's for a country with a population of about 70 million people

https://www.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-france/france-has-ordered-over-1-billion-face-masks-most-from-china-minister-idUSL8N2BL0KY

[Stunns38 3560]

Friend from HS, who is a Epidemiological Psychiatrist (I think she's an NYU Prof or something) just bailed with her two Labradors for a relative's empty house in Houston.  Said quarantining in her apartment building in NY with two dogs was completely unrealistic.  She should know. 

A client’s brother decided to drive to their parents’ house in Memphis because they could no longer stay in an small Manhattan apt with a 1-year old. Drove almost non-stop, only taking quick naps in hotel parking lots. Sad thing is that they’re exposing their elderly parents. We’re going to hear a lot more instances of it spreading this way.

[Deej 76983]

1 minute ago, Wally Fairway said:

France going all in on masks

Orders 1,000,000,000 (that's billion, with a b), and that's for a country with a population of about 70 million people

https://www.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-france/france-has-ordered-over-1-billion-face-masks-most-from-china-minister-idUSL8N2BL0KY

That's just so they don't have to suffer each others BO.

[dcar00 14382]

2 minutes ago, Stunns38 said:

A client’s brother decided to drive to their parents’ house in Memphis because they could no longer stay in an small Manhattan apt with a 1-year old. Drove almost non-stop, only taking quick naps in hotel parking lots. Sad thing is that they’re exposing their elderly parents. We’re going to hear a lot more instances of it spreading this way.

NY/NJ is running at 40% of the total.  I can totally understand people bailing.

[atomheartbevo 89859]

1 hour ago, Tailgate said:

Not sure what we’re waiting for to lock everything down. 

We are waiting for people to be turned away at hospitals.    That’s what this is going to have to come down before a lot of people get serious.

Here in Texas, when you click on Texas on https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com and you look at the state map, the number of counties without a case is shrinking everyday, while at the same time more and more counties and cities are reporting their first deaths, and clusters of locally-acquired cases.  We all know where this is headed.  

If the nursing homes start getting hit hard, like it’s looking, I think you’ll see the state start laying down serious statewide measures.

 

 

 

[Irwin F Fletcher 3550]

Knicks owner James Dolan got the rona.
Knick fan handling it with all the class and dignity you wound expect on Twitter. Don't wish this shit on anybody, but I did get some good laughs out of it tonight. 

Is it wrong that I want Bill O'Brien to have recently had dinner with Dolan? I've had a couple of beers tonight, it's probably the alcohol talking

[MissingInAction 25219]

I started a socially distanced party at the Poco Loco on Cameron today.

As i was hauling cases of beer to my vehicle I decided to sit down, crack a beer, and roll beers to anyone who wanted one.

It was amazing. Paid the liqour store owner $200 to keep em rolling out when I left.

Sure.. it was a bad idea.. just seemed correct at the moment.

 

Edited March 29, 2020 by MissingInAction

[Bash Riprock 1695]

First death reported in Lubbock County. Person in their 60s. 

[clapclapclap 9000]

30 minutes ago, Johnny Sack said:

I think we are bailing out and heading to the ranch until this blows over.  Won't be anyone within miles.  Nearest town is 20 miles away.  Going to pack all the food in the fridge and deep freezer into coolers and take off.  We are working from home and kids are schooling from home.  Staying in the house is driving me nuts.  At least we can fish and turkey hunt there.  And look for sheds, hunt rattlers, and walk around outside all we want without worrying about getting this virus.

Good luck avoiding rabies, lyme, anthrax, hoof--n-mouth, chronic wasting, native bat pop picking up CV, fibromyalgia, wildfires, starving local methheads, and the cartels.

Seriously, though, anyone leaning towards heading to second homes probably ought to do so soon.  Look at all the hodgepodge state and local quarantine type reactions popping up.  Would not be surprised to see more of these in Texas this coming week, especially as county judges keep hearing rumors of fleeing Yankees and Katrina the Sequel moving in.

[ShaggyBevo RIP 3868]

38 minutes ago, Johnny Sack said:

Yes.  Year end.  Where would you set it?  I feel like 200,000 is going to be close.  I also think a significant portion of that 200,000 would have been dead year end regardless.  Will be interesting to see how the total death rate is impacted.  There will be less deaths from the flu than normal because of precautions.  Less motor vehicle deaths.  More suicides.

If the curve doesn't get flattened exponential math says that will be reached by May 1st.

[RayDog 682]

7 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

We are waiting for people to be turned away at hospitals.    That’s what this is going to have to come down before a lot of people get serious.

 

Or when 65 year old grandmas are pulled off the vent and left to die so a 35 year old can have it.

[triplehorn 2664]

8 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

Italy started locking things down in the Lombardy region at 200 cases and 7 deaths. They locked down nationwide at  8,000 cases and 463 deaths.  We still have idiots in Florida at the beach. It is going to get very bad here. 

That's the killer for us right there.  China shut down at like 2000 cases and diagnosed 80k with 3000 deaths (increasingly likely underreported numbers).  We blew past 100k cases yesterday and still have piecemeal shutdowns leaving many millions - at least the population of Italy alone - exposed here.  Do we end up with 4M cases in the next 3-4 weeks?  2% CFR is 80k deaths.  80k would be a shock insofar as that could be a rapid hit before May is over.  I hate to think about it, but the numbers can escalate so fast you lose your bearings.  It'll be higher if our system crashes, but I don't think that much higher, mainly because whether you have a ventilator or not doesn't seem to be the primary factor determining survival - it's being fortunate enough to not need a vent.

[Brisketexan 105465]

Projected deaths is 83,000 and 160,000 on the high side

mid range 2x the flu which is about what I have been thinking.  if they can find a good treatment(not a vax)in the next month I think it could slow down

That projection is to....the beginning of August. 5 months left after that.

[MissingInAction 25219]

My mom called me earlier: " You have been ready for this since you started playing with GI Joes.

Guys i am reallllly fucked up tonight.. so apologies in advance

[bigup2dahorns 3343]

Dallas:

 

 

[atomheartbevo 89859]

The Dolan hate is amazing

 

 

[Johnny Sack 8397]

Just now, clapclapclap said:

Good luck avoiding rabies, lyme, anthrax, hoof--n-mouth, chronic wasting, native bat pop picking up CV, fibromyalgia, wildfires, starving local methheads, and the cartels.

Seriously, though, anyone leaning towards heading to second homes probably ought to do so soon.  Look at all the hodgepodge state and local quarantine type reactions popping up.  Would not be surprised to see more of these in Texas this coming week, especially as county judges keep hearing rumors of fleeing Yankees and Katrina the Sequel moving in.

The only thing that gives me pause is I cannot order groceries like I can in Houston.  But I have probably 3 months of food I can take plus our huge pantry of food and multiple freezers loaded with meat down there.

I'll run out of booze, which I have at least a two month's supply of, before I need to run into town for food.  And that little fart of a town's HEB has less risk of exposing me than the one on Buffalo Speedway.

If things got apocalyptic, I could kill 6 deer in about 5 minutes with a Q Beam and my .270.  And put them in the walk in cooler.

Of course if the power grid gets knocked out, that would suck in a hurry.

[Scheiss Meister 8414]

My daughter has lost her job in New York (not in the city), and she and her boyfriend want to come down and ride the rest out here.  We know that they would have to quarantine for at least 14 days, but we don't have a place for them to do that.  They can't quarantine in our house, for several reasons.  We're looking for a rental or hotel that we can afford, but no dice, yet.  I don't want to possibly bring more cases down here, but, damn, I need her closer to home.

[dcar00 14382]

4 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

 

That projection is to....the beginning of August. 5 months left after that.

 

got it.  I was assuming it was through end of year based on the discussion.  I'm still in on 120K by year end.  

[Mikey4 2476]

Under.  And I'm talking about those who actually died of it vs. those who had it and also died.  To that point, I am dubious as to the accuracy of numbers coming from Italy, Louisiana and China.  The first two being potential overcounts and China undercounting.  My suspicions relate from  them being outliers in the deaths per million in population stats (plus, I don't trust the ChiComs.)   

Wait... you think the reported numbers are... too HIGH? That's some shit right there. Why the fuck would any country or state OVERCOUNT the positives? I understand undercounting for a variety of reasons. But overcounting? No.

[Johnny Sack 8397]

Just now, Scheiss Meister said:

My daughter has lost her job in New York (not in the city), and she and her boyfriend want to come down and ride the rest out here.  We know that they would have to quarantine for at least 14 days, but we don't have a place for them to do that.  They can't quarantine in our house, for several reasons.  We're looking for a rental or hotel that we can afford, but no dice, yet.  I don't want to possibly bring more cases down here, but, damn, I need her closer to home.

What about renting a RV for a few weeks?  Park it in your driveway?

go to rvshare.com

[PhillyD 1258]

I know we will see more stories like this in the coming weeks.  Maryland numbers will greatly increase tomorrow and 66 of those are coming from a nursing home in Carroll County, MD.  This sucks.  Not sure if it is paywalled.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/maryland-virginia-coronavirus-cases-continue-to-surge/2020/03/28/5980275e-7107-11ea-b148-e4ce3fbd85b5_story.html

 

[Scheiss Meister 8414]

Just now, Johnny Sack said:

What about renting a RV for a few weeks?  Park it in your driveway?

go to rvshare.com

We have looked at that, but we don't have a way to hook it up to electricity and water, and can't afford to get that set up.  Wrong Surly 1% for this.

[atomheartbevo 89859]

4 minutes ago, Scheiss Meister said:

My daughter has lost her job in New York (not in the city), and she and her boyfriend want to come down and ride the rest out here.  We know that they would have to quarantine for at least 14 days, but we don't have a place for them to do that.  They can't quarantine in our house, for several reasons.  We're looking for a rental or hotel that we can afford, but no dice, yet.  I don't want to possibly bring more cases down here, but, damn, I need her closer to home.

Order a cabin-style tent off of Amazon for $130.  Get a little camping porta potty, run a water hose and some extension cords out to it.  Drop their meals off on paper plates near the tent.  Give them the WiFi poassword.  Wait two weeks.   

[Dahobbs 17704]

12 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

 

That projection is to....the beginning of August. 5 months left after that.

 

Yes, but the projection has the outbreak being essentially over by then, so you wouldn't expect any increases after that. Of course, if we reopen, there is a decent chance it reappears. 

Edited March 29, 2020 by Dahobbs

[ChickenSandwich 9856]

Need to lock down NY and Ny touching state ASAP. Insane to let Wuhan 2 keep traveling to spread 

[Johnny Sack 8397]

Just now, Scheiss Meister said:

We have looked at that, but we don't have a way to hook it up to electricity and water, and can't afford to get that set up.  Wrong Surly 1% for this.

Dude.  You can hook water up with a garden hose and electricity up to your dryer plug.  Go buy a heavy gauge extension cord and you've got it.  Just tell them not to run the coffee maker, microwave and AC at the same time.

[Johnny Sack 8397]

Here is one you can rent for $50 per night.  This is Houston area, but there are plenty all over the state.

https://rvshare.com/rvs/details/1226678

[clapclapclap 9000]

 

[Scheiss Meister 8414]

2 minutes ago, Johnny Sack said:

Here is one you can rent for $50 per night.  This is Houston area, but there are plenty all over the state.

https://rvshare.com/rvs/details/1226678

Thanks.  Like a ton.  We'll give that a try.

[utee94 15870]

6 minutes ago, Johnny Sack said:

Dude.  You can hook water up with a garden hose and electricity up to your dryer plug.  Go buy a heavy gauge extension cord and you've got it.  Just tell them not to run the coffee maker, microwave and AC at the same time.

Don't even need to use the dryer plug.  Any common 20A circuit will run everything on a standard RV trailer, including the AC.  But yes, you can't run all of those appliances at the same time.

If you can get it close to your sewer cleanout, you can even run the RV waste directly into the sewer.  It's not exactly legal in many places, but right now I think law enforcement and code enforcement probably aren't too worried about it.

[Somnio 751]

17 minutes ago, Johnny Sack said:

The only thing that gives me pause is I cannot order groceries like I can in Houston.  But I have probably 3 months of food I can take plus our huge pantry of food and multiple freezers loaded with meat down there.

I'll run out of booze, which I have at least a two month's supply of, before I need to run into town for food.  And that little fart of a town's HEB has less risk of exposing me than the one on Buffalo Speedway.

If things got apocalyptic, I could kill 6 deer in about 5 minutes with a Q Beam and my .270.  And put them in the walk in cooler.

Of course if the power grid gets knocked out, that would suck in a hurry.

Pick up a generator on your way out of town.

[clapclapclap 9000]

3 minutes ago, utee94 said:

If you can get it close to your sewer cleanout, you can even run the RV waste directly into the sewer.  It's not exactly legal in many places, but right now I think law enforcement and code enforcement probably aren't too worried about it.

@Richard and Carole Gottleib