Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

[Hagbard Celine 10,852]

2 minutes ago, UTGrad98 said:

I am becoming more and more upset the CDC is refusing to issue guidance on wearing masks at all times outside of your homes.

They can't because we're 4.7 jabillion masks short of what we need.

[dcar00 14,160]

1 minute ago, UTGrad98 said:

I am becoming more and more upset the CDC is refusing to issue guidance on wearing masks at all times outside of your homes. The data is pretty cut and dry from other countries where mandatory use is markedly reducing spread . Wearing masks provides 3 common sense protections.

1. Masks offer SOME protection for the person wearing it to not get infected.

2. Masks keep the virus from spreading from those who have it and may not know it.

3. Masks keep you from touching your face.

 

The ONLY reason I can see them saying not to wear masks at all time is due to shortages and to protect from a run on them BUT....you can make at home masks which work. To me personally I think it is criminal for the CDC to not issue guidance on this. And every day they dont speak up is a day where the curve continues to sharpen.

a mask will help and certainly can't hurt.   how much is really up for debate.  people have to use logic at some point.  I don't care if someone wears a mask and I think most people wont.  I agree they are trying to prevent more runs on them but Im guessing the supply chains for key PPE has been taken over by the feds at this point.

 

[Guadaloopy 10,960]

My back fence neighbors are stringing up a piñata right now.  
 

[dcar00 14,160]

Just now, Guadaloopy said:

My back fence neighbors are stringing up a piñata right now.  
 

maybe it is filled with chloroquine

[Blotto 23,492]

Not wanting to sidetrack this thread, I started a thread in CYHMWT on video chatting solutions for isolated elderly that are not tech savvy. If anybody has gone down this path, I would appreciate  any suggestions in that thread

https://www.surlyhorns.com/board/index.php?/topic/14271-elderly-friendly-video-chatting/&do=findComment&comment=2160659

 

[DDD Dad 14,331]

7 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

If giving a shit about my personal freedoms and not liking cops rolling up on my front lawn and scaring the fuck out of kids makes me a Karen, I can live with it. When the same kind of shit rolls your way, let’s see how insouciant you are. 

Calm down, Karen.

[dcar00 14,160]

7 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

If giving a shit about my personal freedoms and not liking cops rolling up on my front lawn and scaring the fuck out of kids makes me a Karen, I can live with it. When the same kind of shit rolls your way, let’s see how insouciant you are. 

you should have said you heard it was "hug a cop" day as you moved towards them.  

[Don Johnson 4,752]

2 hours ago, Helobious said:

It’s a little ridiculous to say “half the infection” is in NYC. It’s the only place testing in large numbers, so of course it seems that way. This virus is everywhere already. 

They also have almost half the deaths in the entire country.  965. 2nd place is 189. 
 

Clearly it’s much worse there than anywhere else, and not just because they are testing more. 

[blacklab 11,926]

2 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

maybe it is filled with chloroquine

fish tank cleaning or malaria drug version?

[Dahobbs 17,529]

12 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

 I agree.13M is a good estimate.  that means the fatality rate is around .015%.  lower than H1N1, allegedly.  well done.

 

I actually do think ~13M is probably in range of how many are currently infected. But, you can't calculate a fatality rate from just that. Almost all of those cases are in progress as opposed to resolved. 

[TXSG8R 3,362]

12 minutes ago, UTGrad98 said:

I am becoming more and more upset the CDC is refusing to issue guidance on wearing masks at all times outside of your homes. The data is pretty cut and dry from other countries where mandatory use is markedly reducing spread . Wearing masks provides 3 common sense protections.

1. Masks offer SOME protection for the person wearing it to not get infected.

2. Masks keep the virus from spreading from those who have it and may not know it.

3. Masks keep you from touching your face.

 

The ONLY reason I can see them saying not to wear masks at all time is due to shortages and to protect from a run on them BUT....you can make at home masks which work. To me personally I think it is criminal for the CDC to not issue guidance on this. And every day they dont speak up is a day where the curve continues to sharpen.

Yea, the shortage makes that guidance pretty much pointless. It would also make people hoard them which would further reduce the quantity available to first responders. 

[DDD Dad 14,331]

Just now, Don Johnson said:

They also have almost half the deaths in the entire country.  965. 2nd place is 189. 
 

Clearly it’s much worse there than anywhere else, and not just because they are testing more. 

Florida says, hold my beer.

In other news, I've now concluded that I can't ride around White Rock Lake anymore or up or down the trails.  It's a freak show out there.  Everyone and their dog, walking astride in twos, threes, and more.  Nearly got shoulder checked by some guy who thought he was on a time trial.

[stork642 4,498]

3 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

maybe it is filled with chloroquine

I hear little packets of fish tank cleaner are this year’s version of tide pods.  

[blacklab 11,926]

2 minutes ago, DDD Dad said:

Nearly got shoulder checked by some guy who thought he was on a time trial.

Probably thought you were Derka

[dcar00 14,160]

49 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

I'll ask around.  The lowest morale now with be in nursing homes/skilled rehab facilities.  Not even doctors are allowed in several now...just nurses alone and the doctors teleconference in.  Every Monday we start with a full breakdown of what has changed and where hot spots may be along with a new estimate of needs / timeline to peak etc.  So I should know a lot more after tomorrow. 

good luck doc.  really hoping you guys avoid the hurricane and the surge is only a week or 2.  any news on treatments you are seeing?  If you can it would be great to know what  you see as the normal routine measures for someone that gets hospitalized? 

[Murfdogg21 4,412]

11 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

a mask will help and certainly can't hurt.   how much is really up for debate.  people have to use logic at some point.  I don't care if someone wears a mask and I think most people wont.  I agree they are trying to prevent more runs on them but Im guessing the supply chains for key PPE has been taken over by the feds at this point.

 

I have a slightly used N95 but I’ve been hesitant to wear it public (HEB, CVS) out of fear of being attacked by a Karen brigade as a PPE hoarder. 

[BradInATX 9,208]

26 minutes ago, Redmen62 said:

There are two Karens in this story. 

Yup. Dude basically asked to speak to the cop's manager.

Edited March 29, 2020 by BradInATX

[ChickenSandwich 9,830]

There are no n95 masks on Amazon. Walmart Home Depot Lowe’s etc. 

When there are mass amounts of masks available people will wear them. 

[bschoolprof 6,252]

45 minutes ago, Skipper said:

 It's one thing for Greenspoint to be panicked and make doomsday statements but at least make them logically consistent. 

 

37 minutes ago, blacklab said:

It's almost like you've never seen him post on game threads.

Go pick a game where we were behind early and look for some posts from him.

Plus, he's somehow amazingly involved in surgery/healthcare.  I wouldn't want him anywhere near me during any kind of medical procedure.

Nurse: "Doctor Johnson, just FYI, the patient's heart rate dropped very slightly."

Greenspoint, over the Dr's shoulder: "Ballgame.  He's a goner.  Let's call it."

[utee94 15,811]

1 minute ago, Dahobbs said:

I actually do think ~13M is probably in range of how many are currently infected. But, you can't calculate a fatality rate from just that. Almost all of those cases are in progress as opposed to resolved. 

You have to make some assumptions but you can certainly back into a fatality rate from that.  You're already making the rather strong assumption that 13M are currently infected.  Then you could assume the true infection doubling rate mirrors the death doubling rate of ~3 days.  The final assumption is time from infection to death.  Looks like it's probably something like 1.5-3 weeks, so you could assume it's 2 weeks and then you'd have enough assumptions to solve for the actual death rate.

Doing that math, would put us at a true death rate of about .006, or .6%.

 

If you think you should go with something more like a death rate of .015 (1.5%), then we're more like 4.5M total infected right now.
 

 

 

[Hate 20,107]

15 minutes ago, Don Johnson said:

They also have almost half the deaths in the entire country.  965. 2nd place is 189. 
 

Clearly it’s much worse there than anywhere else, and not just because they are testing more. 

Maybe the tests are killing them.

[bschoolprof 6,252]

23 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

When the same kind of shit rolls your way, let’s see how insouciant you are. 

Nice.  I'm not embarrassed to admit I had to google this.  

[dcar00 14,160]

5 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

I actually do think ~13M is probably in range of how many are currently infected. But, you can't calculate a fatality rate from just that. Almost all of those cases are in progress as opposed to resolved. 

fair point.  I think 13M would be a number of currently infected and those that have recovered(mild symptons of course)

if you use the 1.3M number its .15%. worse than flu but more highly contagious.

stay diligent, use common sense, IMO don't be in a group of more than 5 people, go out of the house only when you have to, wash hands, wear mask if you want, etc.  we have to put resources at hot spots(NY/NoLa), lock down nursing homes/assisted living.2

2 big issues

H1N1 hit the younger more.  this one hits the older more, much more immune compromised

we didn't have a base from which to get to a vaccine as quickly like with H1N1.  I believe this to be more deadly than flu(using historical CDC estimations) but the bigger issue is it will be a longer time to vaccination.

finding a reasonable treatment path to lower the ICU rate in the next month or so would be big.

 

[Pato del Muerto 52,487]

2 minutes ago, utee94 said:

You have to make some assumptions but you can certainly back into a fatality rate from that.  You're already making the rather strong assumption that 13M are currently infected.  Then you could assume the true infection doubling rate mirrors the death doubling rate of ~3 days.  The final assumption is time from infection to death.  Looks like it's probably something like 1.5-3 weeks, so you could assume it's 2 weeks and then you'd have enough assumptions to solve for the actual death rate.

Doing that math, would put us at a true death rate of about .006, or .6%.

 

If you think you should go with something more like a death rate of .015 (1.5%), then we're more like 4.5M total infected right now.
 

 

 

And 0.6 gives you a million deaths if half the country gets it. 

[dcar00 14,160]

1 minute ago, Pato del Muerto said:

And 0.6 gives you a million deaths if half the country gets it. 

you are correct.  I think about 120M or 1/3rd.

did Fauci say 100K to 200K this year?

[Kennythetiger 9,376]

10 minutes ago, bschoolprof said:

 

Plus, he's somehow amazingly involved in surgery/healthcare.  I wouldn't want him anywhere near me during any kind of medical procedure.

Nurse: "Doctor Johnson, just FYI, the patient's heart rate dropped very slightly."

Greenspoint, over the Dr's shoulder: "Ballgame.  He's a goner.  Let's call it."

As a farmer, I know that when an animal is sick, sometimes the right thing to do, is to put it out of its misery. With the electricity we're keeping Meredith alive, we could power a small fan for two days. You tell me what's unethical.

[Mikey4 2,476]

There are no n95 masks on Amazon. Walmart Home Depot Lowe’s etc. 
When there are mass amounts of masks available people will wear them. 

Not sure who you are responding to. A homemade mask out of a t-shirt is effective at preventing people from touching their faces and catching a lot of the droplets from sneezes and coughs. If we wait until there are N95 masks for medical workers and the public, we will be waiting forever

[dcar00 14,160]

6 minutes ago, bschoolprof said:

Nice.  I'm not embarrassed to admit I had to google this.  

I was going to but inserted "nonchalant" as a placeholder. in my head. which might be wrong.  but it does beg the question....Can you be "chalant"? 

[Dahobbs 17,529]

8 minutes ago, utee94 said:

You have to make some assumptions but you can certainly back into a fatality rate from that.  You're already making the rather strong assumption that 13M are currently infected.  Then you could assume the true infection doubling rate mirrors the death doubling rate of ~3 days.  The final assumption is time from infection to death.  Looks like it's probably something like 1.5-3 weeks, so you could assume it's 2 weeks and then you'd have enough assumptions to solve for the actual death rate.

Doing that math, would put us at a true death rate of about .006, or .6%.

 

If you think you should go with something more like a death rate of .015 (1.5%), then we're more like 4.5M total infected right now.
 

 

 

Oh, yeah, I didnt mean you couldn't do an estimate at all. I meant you cant just divide total deaths to date by your total estimate of cases. 

[Moby Ric 2,058]

30 minutes ago, Guadaloopy said:

My back fence neighbors are stringing up a piñata right now.  
 

I am spending about $13K next week in landscaping to not see my neighbors behind me anymore.  They are from ousux and live up to the image we all have of them.

[dcar00 14,160]

1 hour ago, Skipper said:

You are cut off from making predictions dude.   Pretty sure you were expecting more than 10K deaths per day and a complete breakdown of society by now.

He was wrong on the deaths but we can't get TP so I think he was mostly right on the second part.   I'll give him a C+.

[Aqua Buddha 14,582]

 

 

Guess he'll be propped up beside the jukebox:

 

Edited March 29, 2020 by Aqua Buddha

[Brisketexan 105,086]

2 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

 

 

Guess he'll be propped up beside the jukebox:

 

That is SO wrong......and I'm still laughing.

[G650 14,246]

37 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

maybe it is filled with chloroquine

Bring out your fish tanks

[G650 14,246]

3 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

 

 

Guess he'll be propped up beside the jukebox:

 

This turns me John Deere Green sick to my stomach

[Beau Vine 54,209]

Did I just hear Abbott correctly?

Only 2% of the hospital beds in Texas are being used by Covid-19 patients.

"Another way to say that is that we have a 98% vacancy rate for Covid-19 beds."

Tell me I heard that wrong, please.

[Bama Chick 28,596]

This shit is why lots of folks are worried that even with social distancing America may see this drag out much longer than other countries.

A church service in Florida THIS MORNING!

This service was even streamed online and yet ding dongs still showed up in person.

Your social isolation doesn’t help if you are unlucky enough to encounter one of these folks at the grocery store.

[Scheiss Meister 8,407]

1 hour ago, Hagbard Celine said:

if you want to forget about the covid for 4 minutes, check out the honey badger who really absolutely positively gives negative fucks:

 

Put that persistent little motherfucker on the job of wiping out COVID-19 and we'll be done with it in about a week.

[Pato del Muerto 52,487]

4 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

 

 

Guess he'll be propped up beside the jukebox:

 

Wasn’t he an alcoholic?  No liver function and no lung function is probably bad. 

[Beau Vine 54,209]

 

Should have done this earlier.  Like, 50 years ago.

[Pato del Muerto 52,487]

2 minutes ago, Bama Chick said:

This shit is why lots of folks are worried that even with social distancing America may see this drag out much longer than other countries.

A church service in Florida THIS MORNING!

 

 

This service was even streamed online and yet ding dongs still showed up in person.

Your social isolation doesn’t help if you are unlucky enough to encounter one of these folks at the grocery store.

 

MY social isolation involves not going to the grocery store 

[Gatorubet 30,189]

1 minute ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Wasn’t he an alcoholic?  No liver function and no lung function is probably bad. 

Wait!  John Daly is about to die?

[Johnny Sack 8,397]

6 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

 

 

Guess he'll be propped up beside the jukebox:

 

[XYZ 2,154]

1 hour ago, Hagbard Celine said:

if you want to forget about the covid for 4 minutes, check out the honey badger who really absolutely positively gives negative fucks:

 

Stoffle escaped his pen, went into the lion’s pen and bullied the lion. The lion didn’t want trouble. Stoffle won round 1. Then escaped a second time, went to bully the lion and this time the lion got tired of Stoffle’s shit and tore him up. He almost died.

[SydneyCarton 48,069]

1 hour ago, blacklab said:

It's almost like you've never seen him post on game threads.

Go pick a game where we were behind early and look for some posts from him.

That sounds like delightful entertainment. I’ll put it on my list right after dipping my balls in lava. 

[stork642 4,498]

Damn that sucks about Diffie.  

[dcar00 14,160]

25 minutes ago, utee94 said:

You have to make some assumptions but you can certainly back into a fatality rate from that.  You're already making the rather strong assumption that 13M are currently infected.  Then you could assume the true infection doubling rate mirrors the death doubling rate of ~3 days.  The final assumption is time from infection to death.  Looks like it's probably something like 1.5-3 weeks, so you could assume it's 2 weeks and then you'd have enough assumptions to solve for the actual death rate.

Doing that math, would put us at a true death rate of about .006, or .6%.

 

If you think you should go with something more like a death rate of .015 (1.5%), then we're more like 4.5M total infected right now.
 

 

 

be interesting if the CDC makes a case estimation end of April or end of May like they did with H1N1.  this is more contagious.

[Pato del Muerto 52,487]

2 minutes ago, stork642 said:

Damn that sucks about Diffie.  

You need a pick up, man?

[Pato del Muerto 52,487]

6 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

Wait!  John Daly is about to die?

Nah I’m sure a 4 pack per day smoker can shrug off a respiratory illness. Where’s the corona going to fit that isn’t already taken by ash or tar?

***new theory on low WV numbers- the black lung is already filling all space, nowhere for the virus to park ***

Edited March 29, 2020 by Pato del Muerto

[PenelopeWitherspoon 19,100]

They also have almost half the deaths in the entire country.  965. 2nd place is 189. 
 
Clearly it’s much worse there than anywhere else, and not just because they are testing more. 

965 is New York State. 678 is NYC.