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Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

InkaUtexas

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89762

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Speaking of domestic violence

https://www.chron.com/coronavirus/article/Houston-coronavirus-updates-Harris-County-15165857.php

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In Montgomery County, the district attorney's office says they've seen a 35 percent increase in domestic violence cases compared to this time last year, an increase credited to social distancing and stay-at-home rules. Prosecutors vowed to utilize enhanced punishment ranges for crimes committed during a disaster declaration.

 

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Uncle Boobs
Uncle Boobs

Against my better judgment and several beers deep, I have taken you up on this, potentially ending my streak of totally worthless posts. I have done 3 and 7 day averages only on the Worldometer data. 

Brisketexan
Brisketexan

Daughter’s home. A little PTSD, we’re picking up Whataburger to help.

Coelenterate Fuccboi
Coelenterate Fuccboi

Just try and imagine GreenspointTexas being the person to intubate you as you fight for your life against COVID-19. You’re laying there gasping for air while he chastises you for all the things you li

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ShaggyBevo RIP

ShaggyBevo RIP 3868

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, texashorne said:

Whats the issue with school going into the summer? 

This year? Why add tens of thousands of possible hot spots that can be avoided?

Overall, I'm a big fan of South America's two 6-7 week breaks. One in the winter and one in the summer.

Edited by ShaggyBevo RIP
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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89762

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Damn.  This could be another Kirkland 

https://www.foxnews.com/us/tennessee-nursing-home-coronavirus-outbreak-hundred-hospitalized

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An outbreak of the coronavirus at one Tennessee nursing home left two dead and more than 100 others hospitalized by Sunday – a week after the state banned most visitors at extended-care facilities.  

Dozens of residents were evacuated from at the Gallatin Center for Rehabilitation and Healing, located in Sumner County northeast of Nashville, on Friday after testing positive for COVID-19, Gov. Bill Lee said in a press release. National Guard troops arrived Saturday to begin testing all remaining residents and staff at the Gallatin Center. 

Residents who tested positive were transported to one of several hospitals within the High Point Health System using an ambulance strike team of EMS professionals from Sumner, Cheatham, and Dickson counties, First Call, and MedicOne.

 

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Bevo

Bevo 13591

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Posted
7 hours ago, ABSR said:

Surely they are not canceling school, but officially moving to remote learning for the rest of the year.  Canceling school (no remote learning) has implications to funding and kids graduating and being promoted.

Correct. When I said cancel, I meant no more classroom until the next school year.

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Blotto

Blotto 23560

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54 minutes ago, bigup2dahorns said:

 

Wow!!! That is very exciting. I presume our history books will each get a new chapter detailing the valiant efforts of Shane and his gash, as they overcame nearly insurmountable hurdles and managed to set up a go fund me campaign. Just the two of them. I can hardly believe it.

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Dallas is home and we want to give back to the city that has given so much to us. 

Great....wash some cars, bake some cookies, finger each others b-holes on chaturbate...whatever it takes to earn some cash. Fucking lulz at "giving back to their community" by filling out a web form that effectively asks others to donate. I'm gonna assume this is Paige's doing, and Bueche went along so he continues to get action. Cause I dont see many Buecheles on the donor list.

Edited by Blotto
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jinx

jinx 2635

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4 hours ago, BurntEyes said:

That nobody seems to have noticed Player claimed a take out meal from Olive Garden was lovely, bothers me deeply.

This place really has gone off the deep end.

And now that I've been able to confirm I am NOT in fact related to Penelope... Dressy silk is what I am thinking.

And if she WERE related to you it would have been leopard print thong?

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jinx

jinx 2635

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9 minutes ago, Blotto said:

Wow!!! That is very exciting. I presume our history books will each get a new chapter detailing the valiant efforts of Shane and his gash, as they overcame nearly insurmountable hurdles and managed to set up a go fund me campaign. Just the two of them. I can hardly believe it.

Great....wash some cars, bake some cookies, finger each others b-holes on chaturbate...whatever it takes to earn some cash. Fucking lulz at "giving back to their community" by filling out a web form that effectively asks others to donate. I'm gonna assume this is Paige's doing, and Bueche went along so he continues to get action. Cause I dont see many Buecheles on the donor list.

Reminds me of an old saying "know matter how hot she is, somebody somewhere is sick of her shit"

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89762

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Oh fuck

https://www.kxan.com/news/local/austin/group-of-residents-from-austins-gracy-woods-nursing-center-test-positive-for-covid-19/

Quote

A “small group” of residents from Gracy Woods Nursing Center on Metric Boulevard have tested positive COVID-19 after being admitted to a hospital, said Amanda Smith, the nursing center’s administrator.

Due to federal health code laws, Smith said she could not confirm exactly how many residents tested positive or if any died. She said all the residents tested positive after being taken to a local hospital for reasons other than COVID-19.

“I don’t know if they were positive before they left my building or after, and, due to the privacy of those residents, I can’t tell you how long they had been in the hospital when they tested positive,” Smith said. “I have tested numerous other residents in my building, as well as staff, and nobody has tested positive.”

 

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SizzleChest

SizzleChest 8284

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Posted
3 minutes ago, Iceman said:

wait... so a 45 day incubation period?

 

That's a long ass time to get us all worked up into a tizzie...

Peak is resource demand, which also correlates to deaths/day.  It's just a projection as of today.  I would not be surprised if peak is earlier, and the lag here is due to testing and reporting inconsistencies.  The projections from Birx and Fauci is 100K to 200K deaths nationally, but this model is projecting today that it will be 82K.  So, basically, take the over.

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Iceman

Iceman 2724

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Posted
2 minutes ago, SizzleChest said:

Peak is resource demand, which also correlates to deaths/day.  It's just a projection as of today.  I would not be surprised if peak is earlier, and the lag here is due to testing and reporting inconsistencies.  The projections from Birx and Fauci is 100K to 200K deaths nationally, but this model is projecting today that it will be 82K.  So, basically, take the over.

or don't buy into the dumbassery...

 

just maybe.

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BBQ2Bayou

BBQ2Bayou 807

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31 minutes ago, Blotto said:

Wow!!! That is very exciting. I presume our history books will each get a new chapter detailing the valiant efforts of Shane and his gash, as they overcame nearly insurmountable hurdles and managed to set up a go fund me campaign. Just the two of them. I can hardly believe it.

Great....wash some cars, bake some cookies, finger each others b-holes on chaturbate...whatever it takes to earn some cash. Fucking lulz at "giving back to their community" by filling out a web form that effectively asks others to donate. I'm gonna assume this is Paige's doing, and Bueche went along so he continues to get action. Cause I dont see many Buecheles on the donor list.

 Much obliged. 

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closetojumping

closetojumping 62765

Posted
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12 minutes ago, SizzleChest said:

Texas peak (as of today) is May 2 per this.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

Thanks for posting this. I'm guessing this is where folks are starting to toss out the "we're peaking in May" stuff. I see a few interesting things.

1) Because the governor didn't explicitly mandate certain measures, it looks like they're just throwing out the premise that any of those measures happened anywhere in the state, which we know is stupid.

2) Schools officially closed on 3/19, but that does not account for Spring Break in the two weeks prior. HISD schools had their last day on 3/12, a full week ahead of their date, and private schools in Houston followed suit. Nevermind things like conventions, sports, etc., ending then too, for the most part.

3) If you look, there's really no surge in Texas projected anyway, with those issues considered. They don't show us running out of hospital beds, ICU beds or ventilators even at the projected peak. They could be showing us Texas graphs of any seasonal illness. 

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Newdoc

Newdoc 3448

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2 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

I wonder if these spikes at nursing homes are food/meal prep related

Doubt it. It’s likely staff or someone who frequents several homes as outside vendor/medical provider. Observational data suggests that food borne coronavirus illness is unlikely.

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Blotto

Blotto 23560

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13 minutes ago, Newdoc said:

Doubt it. It’s likely staff or someone who frequents several homes as outside vendor/medical provider. Observational data suggests that food borne coronavirus illness is unlikely.

Mom is locked down in an assisted living center in CT and has been for 3+ weeks. State of CT was pretty quick to mandate that and I have a fairly high opinion of the place she lives. But all it takes is one infected employee to light that match......fucking stressing me out. 

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dcar00

dcar00 14318

Posted
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26 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

Thanks for posting this. I'm guessing this is where folks are starting to toss out the "we're peaking in May" stuff. I see a few interesting things.

1) Because the governor didn't explicitly mandate certain measures, it looks like they're just throwing out the premise that any of those measures happened anywhere in the state, which we know is stupid.

2) Schools officially closed on 3/19, but that does not account for Spring Break in the two weeks prior. HISD schools had their last day on 3/12, a full week ahead of their date, and private schools in Houston followed suit. Nevermind things like conventions, sports, etc., ending then too, for the most part.

3) If you look, there's really no surge in Texas projected anyway, with those issues considered. They don't show us running out of hospital beds, ICU beds or ventilators even at the projected peak. They could be showing us Texas graphs of any seasonal illness. 

agreed.  that site has a multiplier effect to the curve if your state does a "lockdown" of any of the 4 factors(we only have one).  seems pretty rudimentary and potentially arbitrary depending on what the lockdown multiplier is but who knows.

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Dahobbs

Dahobbs 17627

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31 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

Thanks for posting this. I'm guessing this is where folks are starting to toss out the "we're peaking in May" stuff. I see a few interesting things.

1) Because the governor didn't explicitly mandate certain measures, it looks like they're just throwing out the premise that any of those measures happened anywhere in the state, which we know is stupid.

2) Schools officially closed on 3/19, but that does not account for Spring Break in the two weeks prior. HISD schools had their last day on 3/12, a full week ahead of their date, and private schools in Houston followed suit. Nevermind things like conventions, sports, etc., ending then too, for the most part.

3) If you look, there's really no surge in Texas projected anyway, with those issues considered. They don't show us running out of hospital beds, ICU beds or ventilators even at the projected peak. They could be showing us Texas graphs of any seasonal illness. 

That actually isn't true. See below. In short, they've come up with a model based on what happened in Wuhan and assume that entities that enact 3 of the 4 measures will have a similar trajectory (this probably isn't technically accurate, but I believe it is the gist of what they did). For entities that haven't enacted them, they assumed those policies would be in place within a week. And, some of the other things you discuss should be reflected in the data they already have (e.g., historical case and death counts). 

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.27.20043752v1.full.pdf

 The timing of the implementation of social distancing mandates may be a critical determinant of peak demand and cumulative deaths.

For states that have not implemented 3 of 4 measures (school closures, closing non-essential services, shelter-in-place, and major travel restrictions), we have assumed that they will be implemented within 7 days, given the rapid adoption of these measures in nearly all states. At this point in the epidemic, we have had to make arbitrary assumptions in our model on the equivalency between implementing 1, 2, or 3 measures – and we have implicitly assumed that implementing 3 of 4 measures will be enough to follow a trajectory similar to Wuhan – but it is plausible that it requires all 4 measures. As more data accumulate, especially on the timing of deceleration of daily deaths, we may be able to empirically test which of these measures is more correlated with slowing the epidemic curve and reducing the ultimate death toll. Perhaps as important will be the question of adherence to social distancing mandates; it will take time to evaluate whether social distancing adherence is fundamentally different in the US compared to Wuhan. Even in Wuhan it was a full 27 days from implementation of social distancing to reaching the peak level of daily deaths.

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SHOOTER12

SHOOTER12 8816

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On 3/28/2020 at 7:59 PM, Bama Chick said:

If y’all are having issues with extra dry and cracking skin from the hand washing, I found a hand lotion that has sanitizer included.

May not do shit but worth a go.

I’ve been concerned about having open cracks on my hands being a danger for an easy way for germs to enter my body. Obviously, can’t not wash my my hands but it’s a Catch-22 if open skin is a danger too.

Found this on Amazon last night.

f85701279ff588559921ce2848d30706.jpg

Hey! I got some lotion for you...I keed, I keed, just couldn't pass up the low hanging fruit.

On 3/28/2020 at 8:03 PM, MAUFRAIS said:

 


How’s it for jerkin’ off?

 

I got a lotion fountain for the wimmenz, They can come pump all they want.

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dcar00

dcar00 14318

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15 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

That actually isn't true. See below. In short, they've come up with a model based on what happened in Wuhan and assume that entities that enact 3 of the 4 measures will have a similar trajectory (this probably isn't technically accurate, but I believe it is the gist of what they did). For entities that haven't enacted them, they assumed those policies would be in place within a week. And, some of the other things you discuss should be reflected in the data they already have (e.g., historical case and death counts). 

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.27.20043752v1.full.pdf

 

 

wouldn't a model based on Wuhan "data" be overly optimistic?

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SHOOTER12

SHOOTER12 8816

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On 3/28/2020 at 8:21 PM, Treefidy said:

You should see the looks I get with the respirator, fuck them.   I mess around with some exotic hardwoods sometimes and pretty much have to wear goggles and mask.  A small splinter gets wildly infected inside a day, get one in the eye really sucks, not to mention how sick you get breathing the dust  

 

If you have just 1 n95 the balaclava would be a good cover up to keep the mask cleaner longer.  I personally think they would be pretty high up on the alternative materials chart posted somewhere back thread.  Not vacuum cleaner bag good but easily dish towel good.  The multi layer plus a somewhat pleated effect from bunching is logically a good thing.

Can suitable masks be made from vacuum cleaner bags?  If it has been mentioned before I missed it.

Thanks

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closetojumping

closetojumping 62765

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13 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

That actually isn't true. See below. In short, they've come up with a model based on what happened in Wuhan and assume that entities that enact 3 of the 4 measures will have a similar trajectory (this probably isn't technically accurate, but I believe it is the gist of what they did). For entities that haven't enacted them, they assumed those policies would be in place within a week. And, some of the other things you discuss should be reflected in the data they already have (e.g., historical case and death counts). 

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.27.20043752v1.full.pdf

 

 

Do you understand that their assumption is still idiotic then? They're waiting for an edict when one isn't needed. The state is shut down about as far as it is going to get. Much of what they're not crediting as being shut down yet, which leads to their longer term projection for the state, is already effectively shutdown, as I referenced. 

It doesn't even seem like any of these distinctions matter. Their predictions for the state don't enter worryworld territory for the doomsdayers. Even in my own head I've assumed the death toll directly tied to this in Texas through July would wind up being 8-10k and they're half of that. 

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Bevo

Bevo 13591

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Just now, Buzzrock said:

Rumor amongst the olds that my parents talk to is that if you need a ventilator you’re already toast. It buys enough time to measure the coffin.

Talking to my folks is a blast lately.

But they are pretty much on target. We need to be intervening earlier with medications before the elderly + other diseased progress to ventilator.

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dcar00

dcar00 14318

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

Do you understand that their assumption is still idiotic then? They're waiting for an edict when one isn't needed. The state is shut down about as far as it is going to get. Much of what they're not crediting as being shut down yet, which leads to their longer term projection for the state, is already effectively shutdown, as I referenced. 

It doesn't even seem like any of these distinctions matter. Their predictions for the state don't enter worryworld territory for the doomsdayers. Even in my own head I've assumed the death toll directly tied to this in Texas through July would wind up being 8-10k and they're half of that. 

What is the funniest post game interview ever? : CFB

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Bevo

Bevo 13591

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1 minute ago, SHOOTER12 said:

Can suitable masks be made from vacuum cleaner bags?  If it has been mentioned before I missed it.

Thanks

My guess is yes, HEPA bags could be sewn into masks. I have never tried to blow through one but assuming it is possible, A HEPA filters must retain all particles as small as 0.3 µm in size with an efficiency rating of 99.97%.

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SHOOTER12

SHOOTER12 8816

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2 minutes ago, Bevo said:

My guess is yes, HEPA bags could be sewn into masks. I have never tried to blow through one but assuming it is possible, A HEPA filters must retain all particles as small as 0.3 µm in size with an efficiency rating of 99.97%.

Dammit accidentally negged you.. it's showing a heart on  my end, but a red "1".  Must rectify

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Dahobbs

Dahobbs 17627

Posted
Posted (edited)
17 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

wouldn't a model based on Wuhan "data" be overly optimistic?

That seems likely. Their basing their "fit" on Wuhan. If Wuhan is junk data, then it stands to reason their fit may also be junk. It just depends on how bad Wuhan's data really is. 

15 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

Do you understand that their assumption is still idiotic then? They're waiting for an edict when one isn't needed. The state is shut down about as far as it is going to get. Much of what they're not crediting as being shut down yet, which leads to their longer term projection for the state, is already effectively shutdown, as I referenced. 

It doesn't even seem like any of these distinctions matter. Their predictions for the state don't enter worryworld territory for the doomsdayers. Even in my own head I've assumed the death toll directly tied to this in Texas through July would wind up being 8-10k and they're half of that. 

I don't know that it is idiotic. It is a simplified model, true, but there is at least some justification for that simplification. Modeling effects of piecemeal shutdowns is going to be difficult. You'd have to create a much more complex and data hungry model to actually get this thing down to the county/city level. Their assumption may leave Texas a bit worse off, but given that only portions of the state have been under restrictions, it isn't entirely clear that is true. It seems just as wrong to assume the whole state has enacted restrictions when in fact that isn't the case. And, picking the conservative option is probably ideal from a public policy standpoint. Better to have something and not need as opposed to need it and not have it. 

Texas does seem to be better off in their model than other states. If that comes to pass, it'll be because the state had a relatively low number of cases when the larger counties/municipalities started shutting things down. Hopefully we got lucky and got out ahead of this thing. 

 

 

Edited by Dahobbs
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