Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

[Cheeseweasel 26,438]

Just now, Bevo VIII said:

Also multiple countries are rejecting Chinese made test kits, wonder why exactly?

China lies. And unless they have the ability to copy something, China is shitty at developing technology quickly.

[NoName 16,407]

4 minutes ago, Bevo VIII said:

Also multiple countries are rejecting Chinese made test kits, wonder why exactly?

issues with false positives as of last week...

[Fat Bastard 606]

7 hours ago, closetojumping said:

Ha, you’ve got me. I will abstain from having an opinion on SurlyBevo about the spread of the virus and let the experts here hash it out. By experts, I mean all of the other people that shriek and wail over the latest tweet, or those who judge them. 

Jesus Christ, you’re such an insufferable shitbag. Fuck off

[Macanudo 13,012]

7 hours ago, Beau Vine said:

 

Huh.  I would have thought "Naughty Nurse" outfits were already in use considering their high quality and PPE coverage.

On a different note, how have we not seen major outbreaks among the asian populations of the west coast (US and Canada)?   Seattle, Portland, Vancouver and SF have significant populations that I would have assumed traveled to/from all over China, South Korea and Japan. 

[Beau Vine 54,432]

Ha, you’ve got me. I will abstain from having an opinion on SurlyBevo about the spread of the virus and let the experts here hash it out. By experts, I mean all of the other people that shriek and wail over the latest tweet, or those who judge them. 

OK, Karen.

[Bobby_Batronic 1,994]

1 hour ago, RayDog said:

The Philippines is up to 2084 cases and 88 deaths as they keep catching up on the testing backlog. But the overall testing is highly inadequate as 10s of thousands  are being monitored but have not been tested. I still know of only 4 known cases in local hospitals, pit there are dozens of suspected cases of varying severity. 

Someone with half a brain in the national government suggested allowing people to go back  to work but quarantine at the Barangay level. Barangays are subdivisions of cities that are further divided into neighborhoods and each has it's own government. Angeles City for example has 20 plus Barangays. While I normally think they are unnecessarily redundant and overly bureaucratic, it is not a bad way to set boundaries in this situation. 

So the Philippines has decided to let the gays try to control this. 

[Enchubben 5,510]

56 minutes ago, Macanudo said:

Huh.  I would have thought "Naughty Nurse" outfits were already in use considering their high quality and PPE coverage.

On a different note, how have we not seen major outbreaks among the asian populations of the west coast (US and Canada)?   Seattle, Portland, Vancouver and SF have significant populations that I would have assumed traveled to/from all over China, South Korea and Japan. 

The asian populations probably knew the seriousness of this earlier than your everyday americans and thus quarantined themselves.  I can tell you even in Houston, Chinatown was shut down and people were staying home well before the required social distancing and quarantines were in effect. They are also better at wearing masks.

[Dahobbs 17,682]

18 minutes ago, Beau Vine said:

8 hours ago, closetojumping said:

Ha, you’ve got me. I will abstain from having an opinion on SurlyBevo about the spread of the virus and let the experts here hash it out. By experts, I mean all of the other people that shriek and wail over the latest tweet, or those who judge them. 

OK, Karen.

I'm pretty sure you just insulted Karens everywhere. 

[Pancho 44,996]

2 minutes ago, Enchubben said:

  I can tell you even in Houston, Chinatown was shut down and people were staying home well before the required social distancing and quarantines were in effect. 

 

No it wasn't.  Chinatown just wasn't getting any business because people were scared to go there thinking they would get the 'Rona.  Houston newsstations were doing segments from Chinatown for days begging people to come support the businesses there. 

[Digdogger 1,344]

28 minutes ago, Macanudo said:

Huh.  I would have thought "Naughty Nurse" outfits were already in use considering their high quality and PPE coverage.

On a different note, how have we not seen major outbreaks among the asian populations of the west coast (US and Canada)?   Seattle, Portland, Vancouver and SF have significant populations that I would have assumed traveled to/from all over China, South Korea and Japan. 

Maybe they already flatten the curve to a basic slope

[StruggleBus 3,922]

1 hour ago, Cheeseweasel said:

China lies. And unless they have the ability to copy something, China is shitty at developing technology quickly.

That's the damn truth right there.

China does literally everything poorly. But they can do quickly and for pennies on the dollar. 

[Cheeseweasel 26,438]

Just now, Digdogger said:

Maybe they already flatten the curve to a basic slope

Racist.

[Pancho 44,996]

Fauci on CNN saying he thinks the 2nd wave that could come in the Fall/Winter won't be nearly as bad. 

[davidg 4,038]

10 hours ago, JesusSweatDuck said:

I'd worry about proctologists more

[Rip76 4,947]

Some possible good news.

Hope this is legit.

https://www.khou.com/mobile/article/news/health/coronavirus/pandemic-scientist-says-his-team-has-discovered-a-potential-cure-for-covid-19-coronavirus-california/509-4a895be1-80f6-46b0-8812-e2d49d20bebf?Fb-Khou-Tues?Fb-Khou-Tues

[Moby Ric 2,058]

2 minutes ago, Rip76 said:

Some possible good news.

Hope this is legit.

https://www.khou.com/mobile/article/news/health/coronavirus/pandemic-scientist-says-his-team-has-discovered-a-potential-cure-for-covid-19-coronavirus-california/509-4a895be1-80f6-46b0-8812-e2d49d20bebf?Fb-Khou-Tues?Fb-Khou-Tues

So California isn't totally worthless.  Who knew.

[Brisketexan 105,346]

2 hours ago, Buzzrock said:

Murray Model estimates 81K deaths over next four months with 95% confidence that it will be between 38K and 162K. About triple the standard flu season.


https://www.wsj.com/articles/coronavirus-models-of-uncertainty-11585609865?emailToken=da1e0529fbce276a14ffaa0cb41326d6NmiAJHaB6VAjZ3d50yA//SX4rK5qebF0t14ubbbEpvsY5V93eGWWvrfCxIwTXqf6vmioFXD5yOpfhbQJzqMHAA%3D%3D&reflink=article_copyURL_share

I have a hunch that our data is getting better.  Not accurate yet, but better.  I hope this model is correct.  And note, that's triple the ordinary flu deaths....WITH extraordinary measures being taken.

[capnamerca 572]

7 minutes ago, Moby Ric said:

So California isn't totally worthless.  Who knew.

If this is HQ+Zith I'm gonna lose my mind.

[Hate 20,146]

It’s not. It’s a shot that they think could be ready by September.

[WBT 20,669]

36 minutes ago, Enchubben said:

The asian populations probably knew the seriousness of this earlier than your everyday americans and thus quarantined themselves.  I can tell you even in Houston, Chinatown was shut down and people were staying home well before the required social distancing and quarantines were in effect. They are also better at wearing masks.

They can also turn a tv into a watch?

[atomheartbevo 89,805]

9 hours ago, Beau Vine said:

Since Coach Mack Brown declared the coronavirus pandemic a national emergency, most churches, mosques, synagogues and temples have temporarily shut down. But there have been a few defiant outliers, including a pastor in Louisiana.

[atomheartbevo 89,805]

Walmart taking employees’ temperatures at stores and distribution centers   Kinda surprised they weren’t before now.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/31/coronavirus-walmart-will-start-taking-all-employees-temperatures-before-shifts.html

 

[Slacks 6,862]

As if that is even a question at this point. There won’t be any school in this country, anywhere, for the rest of this year.

Online school starts today in Houston.

[Hate 20,146]

They can also turn a tv into a watch?

[smuggs 9,353]

11 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Walmart taking employees’ temperatures at stores and distribution centers   Kinda surprised they weren’t before now.

It probably took some time to acquire and deploy that much Vaseline.

 

[dcar00 14,367]

3 hours ago, Buzzrock said:

Murray Model estimates 81K deaths over next four months with 95% confidence that it will be between 38K and 162K. About triple the standard flu season.


https://www.wsj.com/articles/coronavirus-models-of-uncertainty-11585609865?emailToken=da1e0529fbce276a14ffaa0cb41326d6NmiAJHaB6VAjZ3d50yA//SX4rK5qebF0t14ubbbEpvsY5V93eGWWvrfCxIwTXqf6vmioFXD5yOpfhbQJzqMHAA%3D%3D&reflink=article_copyURL_share

long way from home and while 80K deaths will suck especially over a span of 11 months that will be a better than expected outcome.  100M will get this and if 80K die that is .08.  flu is .1

[atomheartbevo 89,805]

15 minutes ago, Snacks said:

On 3/29/2020 at 10:43 PM, StruggleBus said:

As if that is even a question at this point. There won’t be any school in this country, anywhere, for the rest of this year.

Online school starts today in Houston.

Next Monday for Austin apparently.   

[TexasGolf 5,020]

41 minutes ago, Pancho said:

Fauci on CNN saying he thinks the 2nd wave that could come in the Fall/Winter won't be nearly as bad. 

I bought a second frig/freezer in case it is worst like other pandemics

[Cheeseweasel 26,438]

1 minute ago, TexasGolf said:

I bought a second frig/freezer in case it is worst like other pandemics

Your wife is going to fill it will vegan sausage patties.

[TexasGolf 5,020]

2 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Your wife is going to fill it will vegan sausage patties.

Luckily for me she is a meat lover (no pics)

 

[dcar00 14,367]

49 minutes ago, StruggleBus said:

That's the damn truth right there.

China does literally everything poorly. But they can do quickly and for pennies on the dollar. 

usually the problem is their logical thinking and the ability to think 2 or 3 steps ahead.  I realize that there are many smart folks in China and this certainly does not apply to all of them but when you get into a conversation about something you can usually twist them into a pretzel.  the lack of free thinking growing up stifles that ability.

if China was a free society, holy cow, look out...

[dcar00 14,367]

people are getting concerned.

Its already started

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/30/health/coronavirus-lower-death-rate/index.html

 

[NeverMarryAStripper 21,922]

8 minutes ago, TexasGolf said:

Luckily for me she is a meat lover (no pics)

 

You don't have to tell me

[triplehorn 2,664]

9 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

long way from home and while 80K deaths will suck especially over a span of 11 months that will be a better than expected outcome.  100M will get this and if 80K die that is .08.  flu is .1

If we don't completely drop the hammer, it will take longer, but the numbers will still get really, really bad.  R naught (R0) has to maintained at <1.

Quote

 

3/30 Imperial College study:

 

[JesusSweatDuck 17,810]

23 minutes ago, smuggs said:

It probably took some time to acquire and deploy that much Vaseline.

 

Because they were sold out of beans?

[Rip76 4,947]

6 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

people are getting concerned.

Its already started

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/30/health/coronavirus-lower-death-rate/index.html

 

Who, might I ask?

[Dahobbs 17,682]

26 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

long way from home and while 80K deaths will suck especially over a span of 11 months that will be a better than expected outcome.  100M will get this and if 80K die that is .08.  flu is .1

Where are you pulling 100M from? That isn't in the article AND it isn't in Murray's model (which has been posted here before):

Summary

http://www.healthdata.org/research-article/forecasting-covid-19-impact-hospital-bed-days-icu-days-ventilator-days-and-deaths

Visualization

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

Full Paper

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.27.20043752v1.full.pdf

In fact, Dr. Murray doesn't even attempt to answer the question of IFR or total exposure, rather he was focused on predicting # of deaths and hospitalization usage (which he views as highly correlated). Essentially, he is looking at deaths and hospitalization as a percentage of the whole population as opposed to # of infected. His methodology doesn't require knowing the # of infected at all, all he needs is the growth curves for # of deaths and hospitalizations. 

Quote

 COVID-19 forecasts have largely been based on mathematical models that capture the

probability of moving between states from susceptible to infected, and then to a recovered state
or death (SIR models). Many SIR models have been published or posted online.3–20 In general,
these models assume random mixing between all individuals in a given population. While results
of these models are sensitive to starting assumptions and thus differ between models
considerably, they generally suggest that given current estimates of the basic reproductive rate
(the number of cases caused by each case in a susceptible population), 25% to 70% of the
population will eventually become infected.6,20 Based on reported case-fatality rates, these
projections imply that there would be millions of deaths in the United States due to COVID-19.
However, individual behavioral responses and government-mandated social distancing (school
closures, non-essential service closures, and shelter-in-place orders) can dramatically influence
the course of the epidemic.

* * *

An alternative strategy is to focus on modeling the empirically observed COVID-19 population
death rate curves, which directly reflect both the transmission of the virus and the case-fatality
rates in each community. Deaths are likely more accurately reported than cases in settings with
limited testing capacity where tests are usually prioritized for the more severely ill patients.
Hospital service need is likely going to be highly correlated with deaths, given predictable
disease progression probabilities by age for severe cases. In this study, we use statistical
modeling to implement this approach and derive state-specific forecasts with uncertainty for
deaths and for health service resource needs and compare these to available resources in the US.

* * * 

Other parameters were sourced from the scientific literature and an analysis of available patient data. 31 Age-specific data on the relative population death rate by age are available from China,30 Italy,32 Korea, 33 and the US29 and show a strong relationship with age (Figure 1). Using the average observed relationship between the population death rate and age, data from different locations can be standardized to the age structure using indirect standardization. For the estimation of statistical models for the population death rate, only admin 1 locations with an observed death rate greater than 0.31 per million (e-15) were used. This threshold was selected by testing which threshold minimized the variance of the slope of the death rate across locations in subsequent days.

 

 

Edited March 31, 2020 by Dahobbs

[JesusSweatDuck 17,810]

21 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Next Monday for Austin apparently.   

Leander ISD started Wednesday last week.

[Cheeseweasel 26,438]

1 minute ago, Rip76 said:

Who, might I ask?

[triplehorn 2,664]

I saw the one month (to death) number batted around a few pages back:

 

[Viper 12,112]

1 hour ago, Pancho said:

 

No it wasn't.  Chinatown just wasn't getting any business because people were scared to go there thinking they would get the 'Rona.  Houston newsstations were doing segments from Chinatown for days begging people to come support the businesses there. 

I really could go for some cơm tấm at Kieu Giang right now.

[dcar00 14,367]

1 minute ago, Dahobbs said:

Where are you pulling 100M from? That isn't in the article AND it isn't in Murray's model (which has been posted here before):

Summary

http://www.healthdata.org/research-article/forecasting-covid-19-impact-hospital-bed-days-icu-days-ventilator-days-and-deaths

Visualization

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

Full Paper

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.27.20043752v1.full.pdf

In fact, Dr. Murray doesn't even attempt to answer the question of IFR or total exposure, rather he was focused on predicting # of deaths and hospitalization usage (which he views as highly correlated):

 

 

H1N1 was 60M.  this is extremely contagious, tons of asymptomatic carriers, and had a 1 to 2 month head start.    Fauci says in the CNN article that it depends on what the "factor" is. so the death rate is going to be a complete guess.  It has started.

[Cheeseweasel 26,438]

2 minutes ago, Viper said:

I really could go for some cơm tấm at Kieu Giang right now.

No happy endings.

[Cheeseweasel 26,438]

Just now, dcar00 said:

  It has started.

[Digdogger 1,344]

4 minutes ago, triplehorn said:

I saw the one month (to death) number batted around a few pages back:

 

The good news of that chart is that your cough is better sooner if you die.  So that’s something to look forward to

[Dahobbs 17,682]

Just now, dcar00 said:

H1N1 was 60M.  this is extremely contagious, tons of asymptomatic carriers, and had a 1 to 2 month head start.    Fauci says in the CNN article that it depends on what the "factor" is. so the death rate is going to be a complete guess.  It has started.

What the fuck are you talking about? You literally just pulled a number from your ass while citing to Dr. Murray's work. He doesn't predict 100M exposed. He didn't attempt to predict total exposure at all. H1N1 hit 60M people because we didn't really do anything much to stop the spread. Dude, this is worse than the flu. It will have a fatality rate worse than the flu. That is blindingly obvious now. I really don't understand your obsession with trying to argue against that. 

[dcar00 14,367]

Just now, Dahobbs said:

What the fuck are you talking about? You literally just pulled a number from your ass while citing to Dr. Murray's work. He doesn't predict 100M exposed. He didn't attempt to predict total exposure at all. H1N1 hit 60M people because we didn't really do anything much to stop the spread. Dude, this is worse than the flu. It will have a fatality rate worse than the flu. That is blindingly obvious now. I really don't understand your obsession with trying to argue against that. 

of course he didn't try to predict total exposure yet.  how do you know if the fatality rate is worse than flu?  I've arlready said it will probably be 2x or maybe 3x  the flu(using 40K as the number). 

[Don Johnson 4,756]

I'm in complete agreement with this not being the flu.  I'm in complete agreement with our efforts to not overwhelm the hospital system.

But they shouldn't even try to report fatality rates unless they want to give it an honest try and not just say "the numbers are the numbers."

This flu season, there have been 242,000 positive flu tests.  Yet the CDC estimates their have been 39,000,000 flu illnesses and 24,000 deaths.  The flu fatality rate is based off of the estimated cases. 

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm

That is a complete apples to oranges way of calculating the fatality rate for CV-19.  Imagine if the fatality rate for the flu was based off of only positive tests the way CV-19 is?  The number would be scary high.

[Cheeseweasel 26,438]

9 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

What the fuck are you talking about? You literally just pulled a number from your ass while citing to Dr. Murray's work. He doesn't predict 100M exposed. He didn't attempt to predict total exposure at all. H1N1 hit 60M people because we didn't really do anything much to stop the spread. Dude, this is worse than the flu. It will have a fatality rate worse than the flu. That is blindingly obvious now. I really don't understand your obsession with trying to argue against that. 

[Txzen 498]

6 hours ago, cam4mav said:

Cheers from Seattle,

I don't know how or where to look at graphs like that on a state level. At this point, I feel like it would be useful to be able to show the curves of the major international places and compare them to each state in the US as each state is on it's own curve, with unique exposure, length of time, testing access, stay at home measures in place, etc etc.... Have all states with X min cases on the graph along with S. Korea, Italy, China, Spain, UK, etc.

 

Best source of graphs, per capita at state/regional level, as percent of population (super helpful way to look at the data, frankly) : https://twitter.com/isfBob

Case density as percent of population, worldwide:

Spoiler

Mid-West : 

Spoiler

South: 

Spoiler

Northeast:

Spoiler

 

West:

Spoiler