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Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

InkaUtexas

By InkaUtexas
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Uncle Boobs
Uncle Boobs

Against my better judgment and several beers deep, I have taken you up on this, potentially ending my streak of totally worthless posts. I have done 3 and 7 day averages only on the Worldometer data. 

Brisketexan
Brisketexan

Daughter’s home. A little PTSD, we’re picking up Whataburger to help.

Coelenterate Fuccboi
Coelenterate Fuccboi

Just try and imagine GreenspointTexas being the person to intubate you as you fight for your life against COVID-19. You’re laying there gasping for air while he chastises you for all the things you li

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Dahobbs

Dahobbs 17526

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, GabrielsHorn said:

The joys of typing quickly on an iPhone. 
 

My point is that we’ll reach that number, but that number of deaths is still relatively large compared to the havoc we’ve already seen from the virus. It’s highly unlikely we’d get there in 10 days as that would require, on average, more deaths per day than what we currently have total. 

10 days ago (March 22), the US had a total of 471 deaths. We'll have over 5,000 by the end of the day. If today just matches yesterday (~900), we'll have averaged over 420 deaths a day since March 22. I think you can take pretty much any 10-day period and find similar results. My point: those numbers aren't as absurd as you appear to think. 

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Armybrat

Armybrat 40822

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Judge Roybeanbag said:

Leeroy was a Navy P-3 pilot.  And has been a volunteer fireman for a long time.

I have a picture somewhere of him driving the Sam Bass FD firetruck down my street in Brushy Creek prior to Christmas a few years back. Santa was riding on top throwing candy to the families that came out to watch.

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Skipper

Skipper 6128

Posted
Posted
25 minutes ago, aggie08 said:

Damn, this already gives me the sads. Dreading when this inevitable starts ripping through nursing homes full of parents and grandparents that haven't had visitors in over a month and are now going to die alone.

At least in Dallas, it seems like those that are currently being hit were slow to take precautions.  My grandmother's home cut off visitors the day after the NBA shut down (3/12) and either on same day or shortly afterwards stopped all community events/meals. I know there are supposedly temp checks for staff daily).  So far they haven't had any cases and it seems even if a few popped up it may prevent an outbreak.   It has to be pretty miserable for the residents but certainly for the best (and family phone calls to my grandmother have probably increased about 500% which she's enjoyed).  Also, for the impacted homes in Dallas, they are suggesting families take their loved ones in if possible (they have to have a negative Covid test to be removed but purportedly those test are being prioritized beginning today).

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Hanrahan

Hanrahan 1306

Posted
Posted
34 minutes ago, GabrielsHorn said:

Friendly reminder that the world isn’t at that number yet from the reported deaths and that even the estimates from Wuhuan based on the urns is less than that number. 

You know many find it a serious breach of etiquette to challenge the established fact that hundreds of thousands will be dead in the streets by summer, right?  Fucking climate change denier.

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Skipper

Skipper 6128

Posted
Posted
19 minutes ago, Treefidy said:

Yes it's pretty fucked up that we all understand the need for antibody testing yet very little is being said about a plan for it.  It is happening though.   Mother had pneumonia in early February with a cough that lasted for weeks and still lingers a little.  She saw her doc then and they treated with meds.

fast forward to 3/12 and her doc called her back in because they wanted to check something out.  I thought it would be the test but it was not.  Then 13 days later on 3/25 her docs office called and told her to isolate immediately because she was exposed fact to face during her 3/12 visit.  

She had a video chat with the doc, he started showing symptoms 3 days after their visit and tested positive.  Speculated he may have got it from her and asked her to come get tested.  I thought that was a bad idea to go in and get potentially exposed for the test since she was at 2 weeks with no new symptoms.  She went, yesterday and instead of nasal stab they took blood to test for antibody. Should know results today.  

Where is this at?  That's encouraging this is starting even if little publicity.  We really need a smart statistician to help run a large sample in New York of those that were never tested (both with mild symptoms and aymptomatic) to try to get a sense of what multiple of people there are already immune. 

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Judge Roybeanbag

Judge Roybeanbag 11819

Posted
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19 minutes ago, Armybrat said:

I have a picture somewhere of him driving the Sam Bass FD firetruck down my street in Brushy Creek prior to Christmas a few years back. Santa was riding on top throwing candy to the families that came out to watch.

Yeah, that was him - after he left our company he moved up to northeast Texas.

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Armybrat

Armybrat 40822

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Judge Roybeanbag said:

Yeah, that was him - after he left our company he moved up to northeast Texas.

I didn’t know it was him at the time - he later posted that he saw me out front gawking with the rest of the neighbors. No candy for me though.

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jimmyjazz

jimmyjazz 45889

Posted
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55 minutes ago, GabrielsHorn said:

Friendly reminder that the world isn’t at that number yet from the reported deaths and that even the estimates from Wuhuan based on the urns is less than that number. 

Friendly reminder that we're seeing the US death toll climb at a rate of 27% per day.  In 11 days, that's a factor of 13.86X above the current total of approximately 3,900 cases, or approximately 54K deaths.

11 days.

Sure, extrapolation is dicey.  Anyone want to posit some reason why that rate is going to drop much in 11 days?

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wild_turkey

wild_turkey 3159

Posted
Posted
7 hours ago, woohorn said:

Ok, you never tested positive, but new test showed antibodies.

Will your results show up in any published statistics? For example, are you now going to show up in latest number of infected cases, even though you were infected a while back?

I'm interested in this as well. It seems like we have to track these cases in official statistics under both the total cases column and the recovered column.

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bolverk

bolverk 29655

Posted
Posted

More on those UT Spring Breakers:

Company urged UT students to take Mexico spring break trip despite coronavirus pandemic
JusCollege, a Nevada-based company, told students via email that Cabo San Lucas was considered one of the safest destinations and refused to offer refunds.

AUSTIN, Texas — At least 28 University of Texas at Austin students tested positive for coronavirus after returning from a spring break trip to Cabo San Lucas, Mexico, Austin Public Health announced Tuesday.

Those students traveled on a chartered flight from Austin-Bergstrom International Airport on March 14 and returned March 19, according to an airport official. There were at least 70 students on the outbound flight, and most of them returned on the chartered flight.

But some returned on commercial flights, Austin Public Health said.

The spring break trip, which cost students around $2,000 each, was organized by a Nevada-based company called JusCollege.

On March 3, only 11 days before the trip, JusCollege sent students an email with the subject line that read in part: “Spring Break Is On!”

In the email, the company told students, “We believe that our travel destinations remain among the safest and most enjoyable places in the world to visit right now.”

Then, on March 12, two days before the scheduled departure and one day after the World Health Organization declared coronavirus a global pandemic, JusCollege emailed students again to alert them, “Our refund policy remains the same as when your purchase was made as we have already incurred significant costs related to the trip.”

JusCollege told students Mexico, at the time, had fewer cases than the United States.

“We hope that you choose to enjoy your Spring Break with us – we’re currently in our 2nd week of Cabo and have had almost 5,000 travelers, all with no issues,” the company wrote on March 12.

UT Austin sophomore Ross Fisher said he spent a whole year saving for the trip and worked a second job.

“It's the most expensive trip I’ve personally ever gone on,” Fisher said. “It would have been made [it] easier had they just simply offered to refund us and done the right thing.”

He said after spending that amount of money and being encouraged to go by the company, it was a difficult decision to make.

“Every single email they sent out seemed very defensive. And it was kind of like it came across as like, desperate, trying to get as many people to still go on the trip,” Fisher said.

He said he hasn’t been tested for COVID-19 since returning to Austin and isn’t experiencing any symptoms, but he plans to get tested.

KVUE intern Bailey Abramowitz made the decision to cancel the trip just a couple of days before departure.

“At the time, everything was still really up in the air,” Abramowitz said. “We had no idea how many cases there were or if travel was going to be cut off internationally. And I was really scared that if I went, I would get stuck in Mexico.”

She reached out to JusCollege to cancel the trip and get a refund but still hasn’t heard back.

“I know a lot of other people have emailed. None of us have gotten a response,” Abramowitz said.

KVUE reached out to JusCollege via phone, email, and social media, but did not receive a response.

Austin Public Health said it is working to trace back the direct contact all of the students had with others, while many of them recover at home.

https://www.kvue.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/coronavirus-company-urged-ut-students-take-mexico-trip-despite-pandemic/269-4043c120-e880-4557-a7b6-8b4a6d11f39a

 

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Guest Lobo

Guest Lobo

Posted
Posted

Despite the low numbers in Mexico, does the company understand how the cabin of an airplane works?  It's a lot to expect of a company who, you know...works in air travel. 

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StruggleBus

StruggleBus 3922

Posted
Posted
26 minutes ago, F250 said:

Here is the link to the San Antonio Covid Dashboard.

 https://www.sanantonio.gov/Health/News/Alerts/CoronaVirus

Map of Covid cases by zip code.

https://cosagis.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/d2c7584fe9fd4da1b30cb9d6cc311163

 

 

Maybe the guy from Mexico is right! The poors are immune. Just look at Alamo Heights

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GabrielsHorn

GabrielsHorn 2183

Posted
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3 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Friendly reminder that we're seeing the US death toll climb at a rate of 27% per day.  In 11 days, that's a factor of 13.86X above the current total of approximately 3,900 cases, or approximately 54K deaths.

11 days.

Sure, extrapolation is dicey.  Anyone want to posit some reason why that rate is going to drop much in 11 days?

Because we’ve implemented some significant changes and that trajectory would be well ahead of the rest of the world. Even in Italy, it’s taken them 10 days to go from 4K deaths to 10k deaths. But what you are extrapolating is something that hasn’t been seen anywhere, including the original place that was trying to hide there was anything in the first place. 
 

We’ll get to 50k deaths and this is absolutely a dangerous virus, but to reach the current worldwide deaths in half a month after quarantining a huge chunk of the country is highly unlikely. 

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Guest Lobo

Guest Lobo

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I'll be curious to see how Alamo Heights residents work these stats into a conversation which will obviously begin with the fact that they're from Alamo Heights.

 

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SA-KC_Horn

SA-KC_Horn 1295

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, F250 said:

Yeah Almo Heights looks like a hotspot. I expect those light pink areas along the 281 north corridor to start lighting up pretty soon.

My kid's club basketball team is located in the heart of Alamo Heights. Glad we stopped attending three weeks ago.

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Skipper

Skipper 6128

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Posted
9 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Anyone want to posit some reason why that rate is going to drop much in 11 days?

Yes, testing supply chain issues results in less tests being run when we should be increasing as spread increases to capture growth. 

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GreenspointTexas

GreenspointTexas 9598

Posted
Posted (edited)

Gupta said 200,000 deaths for this thing would be optimistic.  Not sure whether i believe that or not but
 

1) Social distancing only works so much. 

2) Many people dont follow social distancing

3) The list of essential places that are open is a fucking joke

4) Even going to the grocery store is covid-positive suicide at this point. You want covid? Go to the grocery store. The web of people youll have interacted with and products and things you will have touched (especially without gloves) is in the tens of thousands, if not hundreds of thousands

5) I hope, but dont believe for a second that the peak of this thing for the US is anywhere near the next two weeks. Due to the jackassery of our govt and fellow man, I still think this gets drawn out till at least June. Even after that, we’ll still have to worry about the rest of the world essentially “catching up.” I hope we peak before the end of May, but sure as shit not gonna bet on that for the US as a whole at this point

Edited by GreenspointTexas
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GabrielsHorn

GabrielsHorn 2183

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Skipper said:

Yes, testing supply chain issues results in less tests being run when we should be increasing as spread increases to capture growth. 

Do you really think that testing for corona virus isn’t going to capture the people who have died? 

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F250

F250 28764

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, C-Man said:

The worst zip code in Dallas County is University Park. I don't think either is a coincidence.

It seems to the trend we have seen all over the globe. The affluent seem to be the biggest seeders of C19 with all of their globetrotting.

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justhookit

justhookit 4191

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, Lobo said:

I'll be curious to see how Alamo Heights residents work these stats into a conversation which will obviously begin with the fact that they're from Alamo Heights.

 

Of course you would be since you are the master here art working in details that have nothing to do with the conversation. Oh, and I’m from Alamo Heights. Is that how this works?

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Buzzrock

Buzzrock 14903

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Gupta said 200,000 deaths for this thing would be optimistic.  Not sure whether i believe that or not but
 
1) Social distancing only works so much. 
2) Many people dont follow social distancing
3) The list of essential places that are open is a fucking joke
4) Even going to the grocery store is covid-positive suicide at this point. You want covid? Go to the grocery store. The web of people youll have interacted with and products and things you will have touched (especially without gloves) is in the tens of thousands, if not hundreds of thousands
5) I hope, but dont believe for a second that the peak of this thing for the US is anywhere near the next two weeks. Due to the jackassery of our govt and fellow man, I still think this gets drawn out till at least June. Even after that, we’ll still have to worry about the rest of the world essentially “catching up.” I hope we peak before the end of May, but sure as shit not gonna bet on that for the US as a whole at this point


Good morning sunshine!
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zork

zork 629

Posted
Posted

Interesting Italy demographics, etc:

Quote
2. Demographic data
The average age of deceased and COVID-19 positive patients is 78 years (median 79, range 26-100, InterQuartile Range - IQR 73-85). There are 3088 women (30.8%). For 2 patients the age data was not available. The median age of COVID-19 positive deceased patients is more than 15 years higher than that of patients who contracted the infection (median age: patients who died 79 years - patients with infection 62 years). The graph shows the number of deaths by age group. Women who died after contracting COVID-19 infection are older than men (median ages: women 82 - men 78).

https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/sars-cov-2-decessi-italia

 

Quote
3. Pre-existing pathologies
The graph presents the most common pre-existing chronic pathologies (diagnosed before contracting SARS-CoV-2 infection) in deceased patients. This figure was obtained in 909 deceased for which it was possible to analyze the medical records of hospitalization. The average number of pathologies observed in this population is 2.7 (median 3, Standard Deviation 1.6). Overall, 19 patients (2.1% of the sample) had 0 pathologies, 197 (21.6%) had 1 pathology, 223 had 2 pathologies (24.5%) and 470 (51.7%) had 3 or more pathologies . Prior to hospitalization, 28% of COVID-19 positive deceased patients followed ACE inhibitor therapy and 16% Sartani (angiotensin receptor blocker) therapy.
Number of pathologies
Pie chart with 4 slices.
positive COVID-2019 deceased patients
 
 
Numero di patologiepazienti deceduti COVID-2019 positivi2.1 %2.1 %21.6 %21.6 %24.5 %24.5 %51.8 %51.8 %

go to the link above for the graphs/charts, browser needs to translate.

 

 

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bolverk

bolverk 29655

Posted
Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, F250 said:

It seems to the trend we have seen all over the globe. The affluent seem to be the biggest seeders of C19 with all of their globetrotting.

Yep. We see the same pattern with the Austin/Travis County dashboard. West Austin & 78704 are the hot spots, plus Pflugerville for whatever fucking reason.

Edit: Adding dashboard for those who may have missed it.

https://austin.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/39e4f8d4acb0433baae6d15a931fa984

Edited by bolverk
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bigup2dahorns

bigup2dahorns 3343

Posted
Posted

Starting Friday, Costco will allow no more than two people to enter any of its warehouses with each membership card.

“This temporary change is for your safety and the safety of our employees and other members, and to further assist with our social distancing efforts,” the company’s website states.

Other measures include new weekday 6:30 p.m. closing hours for many locations. Warehouses also will open from 8 to 9 a.m. Tuesdays through Thursdays for members ages 60 and older and those with physical impairments.

It’s recommended that customers check their specific location for hours and guidelines ahead of time.

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Shaggybevo

Shaggybevo 353

Posted
Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, bolverk said:

Yep. We see the same pattern with the Austin/Travis County dashboard. West Austin & 78704 are the hot spots, plus Pflugerville for whatever fucking reason.

Edit: Adding dashboard for those who may have missed it.

https://austin.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/39e4f8d4acb0433baae6d15a931fa984

This is great, thanks for sharing.  I'd also like to see the per capita inflection rate by zip code - it might explain Pflugerville (i.e. higher overall population).

The map is also great to show where I should do my grocery shopping to avoid local hot spots.

Edited by Shaggybevo
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NorthLoop

NorthLoop 14183

Posted
Posted
22 minutes ago, Lobo said:

I'll be curious to see how Alamo Heights residents work these stats into a conversation which will obviously begin with the fact that they're from Alamo Heights.

 

Nobody does that. Especially not on this thread. Especially not if they're from Manhattan. 

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