Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

[Hate 20106]

Nobody does that. Especially not on this thread. Especially not if they're from Manhattan. 

Especially if they live inside the loop of Houston.

[Cheeseweasel 26438]

2 minutes ago, Macanudo said:

What's up with the Texas DHS site.  Hasn't updated since Monday.

Dude got corona.

[triplehorn 2664]

Finally, on April 1st.

Now just need to threaten the use of flamethrowers in the streets like the Italians.

and not use pseudo-lockdown strategy:

 

[Neonmoon 38129]

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

Really good link for projected needs and deaths by state

[Larry T. Spider 1746]

Pflugerville has a ton of international residents. Could easily see it spreading there due to their travel as well as family visiting. Used to teach there....it was like the United Nations.

[Pancho 44712]

 

[Neonmoon 38129]

41 minutes ago, Lobo said:

Despite the low numbers in Mexico, does the company understand how the cabin of an airplane works?  It's a lot to expect of a company who, you know...works in air travel. 

Usually when I make important decisions such as traveling during a pandemic, I trust the information being provided by the government of Mexico 

/bad idea jeans

[jimmyjazz 45888]

So, let's do the math.  In order for the US death toll to reach 50K people by April 15th, it will have to climb by 18.2% per day above today's # of 4,053 American deaths:

1.1824 ^ 15 = 12.34

12.34 X 4053 = 50,014

 

Here are the rolling per-day multiples of American deaths, using the last "N" days:

1 day:  1.290

2 days:  1.253

3 days:  1.222

4 days:  1.244

5 days:  1.256

6 days:  1.257

7 days:  1.265

 

So even going back and fitting an exponential curve to the last "N" days where "N" ranges from 1 to 7, we never see the growth rate drop below 1.222 deaths per day.  A growth rate going forward of 1.182 deaths per day will put the United States at 50,000 deaths by April 15th.

Color me skeptical we'll miss that horrible result by a big margin (say, less than 25K deaths), ESPECIALLY given the fact that it takes roughly 2-3 weeks from infection for victims to die.  If you're infected now, and your lot is cast because of whatever preexisting conditions you might have that correlate with high risk, then you're quite possibly fucked by April 15th.

Sorry to be so glum, but I think people are being far too optimistic about how this will play out.  Yes, shelter-in-place should have a positive effect, and even social distancing to some degree, but in the near term, I'm not sure there is much that's going to happen to slow down this runaway train.  As everyone knows, the hope is that we don't overrun the hospitals, which is already starting to happen.

 

 

[Player 4575]

just heard Wimbledon is cancelled.
 
 

[Hate 20106]

I think the “hope” (if you want to put it that way) is that everyone likely to get really sick or even die from this will experience the result this month and that proper precautions going forward will allow for some return to normalcy in May.

[bigup2dahorns 3343]

Usually when I make important decisions such as traveling during a pandemic, I trust the information being provided by the government of Mexico 
/bad idea jeans

BBQ expert Daniel Vaughn took his family to the jungles of Peru because why not. They barely made it out of there.

[freyguy 4264]

51 minutes ago, bolverk said:

More on those UT Spring Breakers:

Company urged UT students to take Mexico spring break trip despite coronavirus pandemic
JusCollege, a Nevada-based company, told students via email that Cabo San Lucas was considered one of the safest destinations and refused to offer refunds.

AUSTIN, Texas — At least 28 University of Texas at Austin students tested positive for coronavirus after returning from a spring break trip to Cabo San Lucas, Mexico, Austin Public Health announced Tuesday.

Those students traveled on a chartered flight from Austin-Bergstrom International Airport on March 14 and returned March 19, according to an airport official. There were at least 70 students on the outbound flight, and most of them returned on the chartered flight.

But some returned on commercial flights, Austin Public Health said.

The spring break trip, which cost students around $2,000 each, was organized by a Nevada-based company called JusCollege.

On March 3, only 11 days before the trip, JusCollege sent students an email with the subject line that read in part: “Spring Break Is On!”

In the email, the company told students, “We believe that our travel destinations remain among the safest and most enjoyable places in the world to visit right now.”

Then, on March 12, two days before the scheduled departure and one day after the World Health Organization declared coronavirus a global pandemic, JusCollege emailed students again to alert them, “Our refund policy remains the same as when your purchase was made as we have already incurred significant costs related to the trip.”

JusCollege told students Mexico, at the time, had fewer cases than the United States.

“We hope that you choose to enjoy your Spring Break with us – we’re currently in our 2nd week of Cabo and have had almost 5,000 travelers, all with no issues,” the company wrote on March 12.

UT Austin sophomore Ross Fisher said he spent a whole year saving for the trip and worked a second job.

“It's the most expensive trip I’ve personally ever gone on,” Fisher said. “It would have been made [it] easier had they just simply offered to refund us and done the right thing.”

He said after spending that amount of money and being encouraged to go by the company, it was a difficult decision to make.

“Every single email they sent out seemed very defensive. And it was kind of like it came across as like, desperate, trying to get as many people to still go on the trip,” Fisher said.

He said he hasn’t been tested for COVID-19 since returning to Austin and isn’t experiencing any symptoms, but he plans to get tested.

KVUE intern Bailey Abramowitz made the decision to cancel the trip just a couple of days before departure.

“At the time, everything was still really up in the air,” Abramowitz said. “We had no idea how many cases there were or if travel was going to be cut off internationally. And I was really scared that if I went, I would get stuck in Mexico.”

She reached out to JusCollege to cancel the trip and get a refund but still hasn’t heard back.

“I know a lot of other people have emailed. None of us have gotten a response,” Abramowitz said.

KVUE reached out to JusCollege via phone, email, and social media, but did not receive a response.

Austin Public Health said it is working to trace back the direct contact all of the students had with others, while many of them recover at home.

https://www.kvue.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/coronavirus-company-urged-ut-students-take-mexico-trip-despite-pandemic/269-4043c120-e880-4557-a7b6-8b4a6d11f39a

 

Signed,

Every parent who also didn't get a refund when the districts had to cancel every school-related Spring Break charter...

[Digdogger 1344]

56 minutes ago, bolverk said:

More on those UT Spring Breakers:

Company urged UT students to take Mexico spring break trip despite coronavirus pandemic
JusCollege, a Nevada-based company, told students via email that Cabo San Lucas was considered one of the safest destinations and refused to offer refunds.

AUSTIN, Texas — At least 28 University of Texas at Austin students tested positive for coronavirus after returning from a spring break trip to Cabo San Lucas, Mexico, Austin Public Health announced Tuesday.

Those students traveled on a chartered flight from Austin-Bergstrom International Airport on March 14 and returned March 19, according to an airport official. There were at least 70 students on the outbound flight, and most of them returned on the chartered flight.

But some returned on commercial flights, Austin Public Health said.

The spring break trip, which cost students around $2,000 each, was organized by a Nevada-based company called JusCollege.

On March 3, only 11 days before the trip, JusCollege sent students an email with the subject line that read in part: “Spring Break Is On!”

In the email, the company told students, “We believe that our travel destinations remain among the safest and most enjoyable places in the world to visit right now.”

Then, on March 12, two days before the scheduled departure and one day after the World Health Organization declared coronavirus a global pandemic, JusCollege emailed students again to alert them, “Our refund policy remains the same as when your purchase was made as we have already incurred significant costs related to the trip.”

JusCollege told students Mexico, at the time, had fewer cases than the United States.

“We hope that you choose to enjoy your Spring Break with us – we’re currently in our 2nd week of Cabo and have had almost 5,000 travelers, all with no issues,” the company wrote on March 12.

UT Austin sophomore Ross Fisher said he spent a whole year saving for the trip and worked a second job.

“It's the most expensive trip I’ve personally ever gone on,” Fisher said. “It would have been made [it] easier had they just simply offered to refund us and done the right thing.”

He said after spending that amount of money and being encouraged to go by the company, it was a difficult decision to make.

“Every single email they sent out seemed very defensive. And it was kind of like it came across as like, desperate, trying to get as many people to still go on the trip,” Fisher said.

He said he hasn’t been tested for COVID-19 since returning to Austin and isn’t experiencing any symptoms, but he plans to get tested.

KVUE intern Bailey Abramowitz made the decision to cancel the trip just a couple of days before departure.

“At the time, everything was still really up in the air,” Abramowitz said. “We had no idea how many cases there were or if travel was going to be cut off internationally. And I was really scared that if I went, I would get stuck in Mexico.”

She reached out to JusCollege to cancel the trip and get a refund but still hasn’t heard back.

“I know a lot of other people have emailed. None of us have gotten a response,” Abramowitz said.

KVUE reached out to JusCollege via phone, email, and social media, but did not receive a response.

Austin Public Health said it is working to trace back the direct contact all of the students had with others, while many of them recover at home.

https://www.kvue.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/coronavirus-company-urged-ut-students-take-mexico-trip-despite-pandemic/269-4043c120-e880-4557-a7b6-8b4a6d11f39a

 

The Jus did this

[InkaUtexas 25862]

13 minutes ago, Larry T. Spider said:

Pflugerville has a ton of international residents. Could easily see it spreading there due to their travel as well as family visiting. Used to teach there....it was like the United Nations.

And the fucking lake. 

[aggie08 21489]

1 hour ago, Dahobbs said:

Unfortunately, there are a lot of true morons in the world. And I'm not sure about that latter point either. 

I think most people that are still comparing this to other viruses in a "this is not THAT big of a deal" sort of way have at least moved on from the regular flu to H1N1.

But I don't remember H1N1 overloading hospitals and hemorrhaging critical resources to this extent.

[huge 3793]

28 minutes ago, Hate said:

Especially if they live inside the loop of Houston.

Did I mention I live in the crime-free Montrose?

[TexArcher 37767]

7 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

So, let's do the math.  In order for the US death toll to reach 50K people by April 15th, it will have to climb by 18.2% per day above today's # of 4,053 American deaths:

1.1824 ^ 15 = 12.34

12.34 X 4053 = 50,014

 

Here are the rolling per-day multiples of American deaths, using the last "N" days:

1 day:  1.290

2 days:  1.253

3 days:  1.222

4 days:  1.244

5 days:  1.256

6 days:  1.257

7 days:  1.265

 

So even going back and fitting an exponential curve to the last "N" days where "N" ranges from 1 to 7, we never see the growth rate drop below 1.222 deaths per day.  A growth rate going forward of 1.182 deaths per day will put the United States at 50,000 deaths by April 15th.

Color me skeptical we'll miss that horrible result by a big margin (say, less than 25K deaths), ESPECIALLY given the fact that it takes roughly 2-3 weeks from infection for victims to die.  If you're infected now, and your lot is cast because of whatever preexisting conditions you might have that correlate with high risk, then you're quite possibly fucked by April 15th.

Sorry to be so glum, but I think people are being far too optimistic about how this will play out.  Yes, shelter-in-place should have a positive effect, and even social distancing to some degree, but in the near term, I'm not sure there is much that's going to happen to slow down this runaway train.  As everyone knows, the hope is that we don't overrun the hospitals, which is already starting to happen.

 

 

All of this is true, and we need to factor in that the vast majority of people who needed ventilators over the last few weeks got them.  That is about to change.  Maybe not in time to affect your Easter calculation, but it will affect the eventual totals.  If the numbers are radically different from the 100-200k estimate, I don't think it's going to be in the direction we're hoping for.  I suspect this is what Dr. Gupta and others mean when they say the government's estimate may be optimistic.

[DDD Dad 14325]

Pence just said that Italy is the best comparison to USA.

 

[EuroHorn 3255]

12 minutes ago, freyguy said:

Signed,

Every parent who also didn't get a refund when the districts had to cancel every school-related Spring Break charter...

Ah ,  Jus

[Mitch Cumsteen 18547]

1 minute ago, F250 said:

Here is the link to the San Antonio Covid Dashboard.

 https://www.sanantonio.gov/Health/News/Alerts/CoronaVirus

Map of Covid cases by zip code.

https://cosagis.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/d2c7584fe9fd4da1b30cb9d6cc311163

 

 

And leading the way... my zip 78209, with somewhere between 13 and 17 confirmed cases / 32.98 cases per 100,000. Not surprising with the demographic here and the number of folks who went on Spring Break in Colorado or anywhere else in the country just a few weeks back.

With 42,000 people living in the zip code, what does that come out to? 0.04% on the high side. One out of every 2500 people on the chance that they were actually symptomatic, were somehow able to get tested and got their test results back. The real number? Who fucking knows but we know it's more than that.

As careful as I've been (gloves, mask, wiping everything down, etc.), I'm going to think really long and hard about going in person to the Lincoln Heights HEB that's just a few blocks from my house.

[Somnio 751]

March summary of Covid-19:

World

3/1/2020

Confirmed cases - 88,585

Deaths - 3,050 

CFR - 3.4%

3/31/2020

Confirmed cases - 858,355

Deaths - 42,309

CFR - 4.9%

 

United States

3/1/2020

Confirmed cases - 75

Deaths - 1

CFR - 1.3%

3/31/2020

Confirmed cases - 188,530

Deaths - 4,053

CFR - 2.1%

 

[Cheeseweasel 26438]

Just now, Mitch Cumsteen said:

And leading the way... my zip 78209, with somewhere between 13 and 17 confirmed cases / 32.98 cases per 100,000. Not surprising with the demographic here and the number of folks who went on Spring Break in Colorado or anywhere else in the country just a few weeks back.

With 42,000 people living in the zip code, what does that come out to? 0.04% on the high side. One out of every 2500 people on the chance that they were actually symptomatic, were somehow able to get tested and got their test results back. The real number? Who fucking knows but we know it's more than that.

As careful as I've been (gloves, mask, wiping everything down, etc.), I'm going to think really long and hard about going in person to the Lincoln Heights HEB that's just a few blocks from my house.

I thought you were already headed to the cabin with Team Pack-too-much?

[Brisketexan 105066]

6 minutes ago, DDD Dad said:

Pence just said that Italy is the best comparison to USA.

 

Well....that's wonderful.

[Dahobbs 17526]

The UK is blowing up. 500+ deaths today. 

[Dahobbs 17526]

Just now, Brisketexan said:

Well....that's wonderful.

I was assured by others in this thread that we could not compare the US to Italy. 

[Brisketexan 105066]

Just now, Dahobbs said:

The UK is blowing up. 500+ deaths today. 

This is where we are.  The numbers over the next 30 days are going to be really, really bad.  We know this.  We're entering the peak period.

What we're looking for is stabilization/decline 30 days from now.

[Buzzrock 14902]

Cue the circus music. This is the next town north from me.

https://www.wsbtv.com/news/local/mayor-cumming-cancels-social-distancing-order/QVP3NN2OLRDYZNP75X3EHXSKEI/

[Cheeseweasel 26438]

1 minute ago, Buzzrock said:

Cue the circus music. This is the next town north from me.

https://www.wsbtv.com/news/local/mayor-cumming-cancels-social-distancing-order/QVP3NN2OLRDYZNP75X3EHXSKEI/

I honestly don't understand why these people are governing. They don't seem smart enough to manage their way out of a wet paper bag.

[smuggs 9353]

1 minute ago, Buzzrock said:

Cue the circus music. This is the next town north from me.

https://www.wsbtv.com/news/local/mayor-cumming-cancels-social-distancing-order/QVP3NN2OLRDYZNP75X3EHXSKEI/

Quote

The mayor of Cumming, Georgia...

 

[Mitch Cumsteen 18547]

3 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

I thought you were already headed to the cabin with Team Pack-too-much?

The ranch retreat has become a family war. My wife's mother and father, both in their 80's stocked it up a few weeks ago but they are safely sheltering in place at home in San Antonio. Typhoon Mary, who has done zero prep (no TP, supplies, food, etc.) and next to zero social distancing just took her family to the ranch without giving two fucks about anybody else. So the actual people who own and pay for that place can't even go because they don't want to get anywhere near her unhygienic ass. And that gravy trainer is running through their supplies. You think I'd like to take my wife, kids and dog out there to go run around and fish and get out dodge? Sure, but we aren't selfish cunts.

[Buzzrock 14902]

I read the statement and I kind of get his point: you can’t have a rule without punishment, and deploying 150 new cops to cite or arrest those who don’t obey social distancing sounds draconian. But people are not following safe social distancing practices on their own so what else can you do?

He definitely fumbled the response.

Also: Fulton County (Atlanta) is about to issue a SiP order.

[Buzzrock 14902]

 

It’s where Siemens is located too.

[Buzzrock 14902]

The ranch retreat has become a family war. My wife's mother and father, both in their 80's stocked it up a few weeks ago but they are safely sheltering in place at home in San Antonio. Typhoon Mary, who has done zero prep (no TP, supplies, food, etc.) and next to zero social distancing just took her family to the ranch without giving two fucks about anybody else. So the actual people who own and pay for that place can't even go because they don't want to get anywhere near her unhygienic ass. And that gravy trainer is running through their supplies. You think I'd like to take my wife, kids and dog out there to go run around and fish and get out dodge? Sure, but we aren't selfish cunts.

That’s dad-rage inducing. Everyone has people like that somewhere in their family. Sorry yours are so close.

[Brisketexan 105066]

1 minute ago, Buzzrock said:

 

It’s where Siemens is located too.

 

Siemens....is located in Cumming?

My inner 12 year old is laughing like both Beavis AND Butthead.

Because I'm super mature.

[GabrielsHorn 2183]

37 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

So, let's do the math.  In order for the US death toll to reach 50K people by April 15th, it will have to climb by 18.2% per day above today's # of 4,053 American deaths:

1.1824 ^ 15 = 12.34

12.34 X 4053 = 50,014

 

Here are the rolling per-day multiples of American deaths, using the last "N" days:

1 day:  1.290

2 days:  1.253

3 days:  1.222

4 days:  1.244

5 days:  1.256

6 days:  1.257

7 days:  1.265

 

So even going back and fitting an exponential curve to the last "N" days where "N" ranges from 1 to 7, we never see the growth rate drop below 1.222 deaths per day.  A growth rate going forward of 1.182 deaths per day will put the United States at 50,000 deaths by April 15th.

Color me skeptical we'll miss that horrible result by a big margin (say, less than 25K deaths), ESPECIALLY given the fact that it takes roughly 2-3 weeks from infection for victims to die.  If you're infected now, and your lot is cast because of whatever preexisting conditions you might have that correlate with high risk, then you're quite possibly fucked by April 15th.

Sorry to be so glum, but I think people are being far too optimistic about how this will play out.  Yes, shelter-in-place should have a positive effect, and even social distancing to some degree, but in the near term, I'm not sure there is much that's going to happen to slow down this runaway train.  As everyone knows, the hope is that we don't overrun the hospitals, which is already starting to happen.

 

 

Except no country in the world has seen that multiplier stay above 1.2 above 4,000 deaths, including Spain and Italy which have been battered by this. I know we are already in a black swan event, but you can’t keep extrapolating out when we have data from other places that indicate that it is unlikely to keep up said multiplier. 
 

Looks, it’s still not a good situation, but if we continue to provide predictions that project carnage in the streets that don’t actually happen, it’s going to give more resolve to the morons who think this is no worse than the flu or H1N1. Those models that continually get posted focus way too much on the raw numbers opposed to the behavior and outcomes needed to stretch out and minimize needless deaths (e.g. we need these measures to flatten the curve to not overwhelm the system, we need to be prepared better for the next epidemic as it can come from anywhere, this is going to be months not weeks of various measures, etc). 
 

 

Edited April 1, 2020 by GabrielsHorn

[Dbeasy 15042]

I didn’t know it was him at the time - he later posted that he saw me out front gawking with the rest of the neighbors. No candy for me though.

Small world, my Son In Law is a firefighter at Sam Bass and Round Rock.

[MNLonghornFUKM 8817]

The ranch retreat has become a family war. My wife's mother and father, both in their 80's stocked it up a few weeks ago but they are safely sheltering in place at home in San Antonio. Typhoon Mary, who has done zero prep (no TP, supplies, food, etc.) and next to zero social distancing just took her family to the ranch without giving two fucks about anybody else. So the actual people who own and pay for that place can't even go because they don't want to get anywhere near her unhygienic ass. And that gravy trainer is running through their supplies. You think I'd like to take my wife, kids and dog out there to go run around and fish and get out dodge? Sure, but we aren't selfish cunts.

I hate your sister in law

[jimmyjazz 45888]

1 minute ago, GabrielsHorn said:

Except no country in the world has seen that multiplier stay above 1.2 above 4,000 deaths, including Spain and Italy which have been battered by this. I know we are already in a black swan event, but you can’t keep extrapolating out when we have data from other places that indicate that it is unlikely to keep up said multiplier. 

Sure I can.  I hope you're right, but at the moment, that's all it is -- hope.  You're expecting a numerical correlation to different countries & cultures within days that has shown no real signs of happening.

 

Quote

Looks, it’s still not a good situation, but if we continue to provide predictions that project carnage in the streets that don’t actually happen, it’s going to give more resolve to the morons who think this is no worse than the flu or H1N1. Those models that continually get posted focus way too much on the raw numbers opposed to the actually behavior (we need these measures to flatten the curve to not overwhelm the system, we need to be prepared better for the next epidemic as it can come from anywhere, this is going to be months not weeks of various measures, etc). 

Well, I'm sorry, but that's ridiculous.  I don't care about the morons.  They're unreachable.  They're gonna do what they're gonna do.  Telling them things are not all that bad when we have no information that suggests this is the case is just as likely to make things worse as it is to make them better.

Furthermore, past data fail to account for stressed healthcare facilities, which implies that the numbers are going to get WORSE, and soon.

Nope, I'll deal in the data as they are presented.  You're more than welcome to hope that the mortality growth rate suddenly declines just because it did in other countries (with their attendant sketchy reporting).  I'll just look at the curves, thank you very much.

[Macanudo 12975]

1 minute ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

I hate your sister in law

We all do.

[Dbeasy 15042]

Nm

 

[Brisketexan 105066]

Man, issuing an executive order allowing churches to keep having large services seems like a GREAT idea....

https://www.christianpost.com/news/43-people-fall-ill-at-illinois-pentecostal-church-after-revival-10-test-positive-for-coronavirus-235955/?fbclid=IwAR2e9ryZHfNgTGIXcLcxeEHIzoWYt4bIjT9VGISSvSyeQ3Jki96B2JBy91U

Quote

Several members of an Illinois Pentecostal church are either at the hospital or in home quarantine after at least 43 congregants fell ill following a revival service two Sundays ago, and at least 10 of them have tested positive for the new coronavirus.

In a Facebook post Wednesday night, Layna LoCascio, wife of pastor Anthony LoCascio who leads The Life Church of Glenview, said at least 43 of the approximately 80 people who attended a March 15 service at their church have fallen ill and everyone who has been tested for the new coronavirus has come back positive for the virus which has already killed more than 1,470 and infected more than 97,000 people nationwide.

 

[TxTower 650]

It seems to the trend we have seen all over the globe. The affluent seem to be the biggest seeders of C19 with all of their globetrotting.

Or it could be that they are more likely/able to get tested.

[GabrielsHorn 2183]

6 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Sure I can.  I hope you're right, but at the moment, that's all it is -- hope.  You're expecting a numerical correlation to different countries & cultures within days that has shown no real signs of happening.

 

Well, I'm sorry, but that's ridiculous.  I don't care about the morons.  They're unreachable.  They're gonna do what they're gonna do.  Telling them things are not all that bad when we have no information that suggests this is the case is just as likely to make things worse as it is to make them better.

Furthermore, past data fail to account for stressed healthcare facilities, which implies that the numbers are going to get WORSE, and soon.

Nope, I'll deal in the data as they are presented.  You're more than welcome to hope that the mortality growth rate suddenly declines just because it did in other countries (with their attendant sketchy reporting).  I'll just look at the curves, thank you very much.

You really think that Italy and Spain don’t matter. We are using an exponential growth system based on measured data that has proven it out. Further, you really don’t think Spain and Italy don’t have an overstresssed system at this point? Are you just purposely avoiding  the news from there where they are picking who to give treatment to and using ice rinks as temporary morgues?

This isn’t some math problem and these models are built upon it not just being an exponential curve that any moron can put together. Why would we not use proven data to calibrate a model? 

Edited April 1, 2020 by GabrielsHorn

[Dahobbs 17526]

10 minutes ago, GabrielsHorn said:

Except no country in the world has seen that multiplier stay above 1.2 above 4,000 deaths, including Spain and Italy which have been battered by this. I know we are already in a black swan event, but you can’t keep extrapolating out when we have data from other places that indicate that it is unlikely to keep up said multiplier. 
 

Looks, it’s still not a good situation, but if we continue to provide predictions that project carnage in the streets that don’t actually happen, it’s going to give more resolve to the morons who think this is no worse than the flu or H1N1. Those models that continually get posted focus way too much on the raw numbers opposed to the behavior and outcomes needed to stretch out and minimize needless deaths (e.g. we need these measures to flatten the curve to not overwhelm the system, we need to be prepared better for the next epidemic as it can come from anywhere, this is going to be months not weeks of various measures, etc). 
 

 

You mean all those countries that actually did national lock downs? Where are the examples of countries that didn't do that and had large regions that rebelled against even moderate mitigation measures? 

[Cheeseweasel 26438]

8 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

I hate your sister in law

We all do. It's amazing.

[PenelopeWitherspoon 19100]

25 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

This is where we are.  The numbers over the next 30 days are going to be really, really bad.  We know this.  We're entering the peak period.

What we're looking for is stabilization/decline 30 days from now.

I am looking at stabilization and decline starting much sooner than 30 days from now for NYC and NY State.  

[WBT 20561]

51 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

So, let's do the math.  In order for the US death toll to reach 50K people by April 15th, it will have to climb by 18.2% per day above today's # of 4,053 American deaths:

1.1824 ^ 15 = 12.34

12.34 X 4053 = 50,014

 

Here are the rolling per-day multiples of American deaths, using the last "N" days:

1 day:  1.290

2 days:  1.253

3 days:  1.222

4 days:  1.244

5 days:  1.256

6 days:  1.257

7 days:  1.265

 

So even going back and fitting an exponential curve to the last "N" days where "N" ranges from 1 to 7, we never see the growth rate drop below 1.222 deaths per day.  A growth rate going forward of 1.182 deaths per day will put the United States at 50,000 deaths by April 15th.

Color me skeptical we'll miss that horrible result by a big margin (say, less than 25K deaths), ESPECIALLY given the fact that it takes roughly 2-3 weeks from infection for victims to die.  If you're infected now, and your lot is cast because of whatever preexisting conditions you might have that correlate with high risk, then you're quite possibly fucked by April 15th.

Sorry to be so glum, but I think people are being far too optimistic about how this will play out.  Yes, shelter-in-place should have a positive effect, and even social distancing to some degree, but in the near term, I'm not sure there is much that's going to happen to slow down this runaway train.  As everyone knows, the hope is that we don't overrun the hospitals, which is already starting to happen.

 

 

And by May 22nd, we'll have 346 million dead in the US!

[Beau Vine 54207]

6 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Man, issuing an executive order allowing churches to keep having large services seems like a GREAT idea....

https://www.christianpost.com/news/43-people-fall-ill-at-illinois-pentecostal-church-after-revival-10-test-positive-for-coronavirus-235955/?fbclid=IwAR2e9ryZHfNgTGIXcLcxeEHIzoWYt4bIjT9VGISSvSyeQ3Jki96B2JBy91U

 

Quote

Last week, Harris County Judge Lina Hidalgo, who oversees the area of Texas that includes Houston, issued an order requiring “all individuals currently living within Harris County ... to stay at their place of residence except for Essential Activities” (in Texas, the title “county judge” refers to the chief executive of a county government).

Like many similar orders handed down by state and local officials throughout the United States, which are intended to slow the spread of the coronavirus pandemic, Hidalgo’s order closes most businesses within the county and shuts down most places where people gather in large groups. Although it allows faith leaders to “minister and counsel in individual settings, so long as social distance protocols are followed,” it requires worship services to “be provided by video and teleconference.”

That restriction on in-person worship services has sparked a lawsuit, filed by three Texas pastors and Steven Hotze, a medical doctor and anti-LGBT Republican activist whose political action committee was labeled a hate group by the Southern Poverty Law Center. These four men ask the Texas Supreme Court to strike down Hidalgo’s order, claiming, among other things, that it violates the “religious liberty” of pastors who wish to gather their parishioners together during a pandemic.

The case is named In re Hotze.

Under existing precedents, the petitioner’s arguments in Hotze are not strong. They rely heavily on older US Supreme Court decisions that were effectively overruled by the Supreme Court’s later decision in Employment Division v. Smith (1990) (although it’s worth noting that Smith is very much out of favor with judicial conservatives and could, itself, be overruled by the Court’s current majority).

The Hotze petitions also essentially ask the Texas Supreme Court to place the temporary interests of a few pastors before the county’s interest in combating a deadly disease. The US Supreme Court has long held that the government may take targeted action to protect especially compelling interests — even when doing so implicates constitutional rights.

Yet, while there is little legal support for the Hotze petitioners’ arguments, the Texas Supreme Court is notoriously conservative — all nine of its members are Republicans — so there is, at least, some chance that the Hotze petition succeeds.

It is at least as likely, however, that the Texas justices will recognize that they need to place some limits on the religious liberty doctrine. Unlike other high-profile lawsuits about religious exemptions to generally applicable laws, Hotze does not pit a Republican interest group (such as business owners with conservative religious views) against a group associated with Democrats (such as LGBTQ people).

Hotze places the public health of an entire community against the interests of a handful of pastors (and, potentially, parishioners) with an idiosyncratic view of the pandemic.

The government may limit religious liberty if it has a sufficiently compelling reason to do so

The Hotze petition mingles legal arguments with Trumpian rhetoric and familiar Republican Party talking points. One subsection of the petition argues, falsely, that the coronavirus is less dangerous than the flu. An entire section of the petition suggests that Judge Hidalgo’s order is invalid because it “picks winners and losers.”

The petition also makes some fairly basic legal errors. It argues, for example, that the First Amendment’s clause protecting the “free exercise” of religion requires courts to strike down Hidalgo’s order unless that order is supported by a “compelling government interest.” But the Supreme Court rejected this reading of the First Amendment in Smith.

Under Smith, “the right of free exercise does not relieve an individual of the obligation to comply with a valid and neutral law of general applicability on the ground that the law proscribes (or prescribes) conduct that his religion prescribes (or proscribes).” That is, so long as Hidalgo’s order does not single out places of worship for inferior treatment that it does not impose on similar organizations, the order does not violate the First Amendment.

That said, there is a case pending before the US Supreme Court right now that asks the justices to overrule Smith. And the argument against Smith is likely to receive a very sympathetic audience from the Court’s Republican majority. The Texas Constitution also contains strong language protecting religious freedom, and the state’s highest court is free to interpret that language differently from the US Supreme Court read of the First Amendment in Smith.

So it is not that much of a stretch to say that Texas pastors enjoy strong constitutional protections against a government order regulating how they conduct worship services.

Yet, even the Hotze petitioners admit that these protections are not unlimited. Rather, they concede that the government may take actions that limit religious freedom if such actions are “narrowly tailored” to advance a “compelling interest.”

This test, which is also known as “strict scrutiny,” is the same test the US Supreme Court applies to laws that restrict speech or that discriminate on the basis of race. But, even in the context of censorship or race discrimination, strict scrutiny is not insurmountable. A study by UCLA law professor Adam Winkler, for example, found that federal courts applying the compelling interest test upheld 22 percent of free speech restrictions and 27 percent of laws that engaged in discrimination between 1990 and 2003.

The government interest at stake in Hotze, moreover, is protecting human life from a disease that threatens to kill millions. And Hidalgo’s order is narrow in that it does not ban worship services. It simply requires them to be temporarily held online until the pandemic passes.

The coronavirus pandemic could force the US Supreme Court to place some limits on “religious liberty”

Until fairly recently, the Supreme Court recognized that there must be some practical limits on a religious objector’s ability to seek exemptions from generally applicable laws. As Justice Antonin Scalia wrote for the Court in Smith, “to make an individual’s obligation to obey [the] law contingent upon the law’s coincidence with his religious beliefs, except where the State’s interest is ‘compelling’” is to permit that individual “to become a law unto himself.”

Accordingly, the Court typically had been reluctant to grant religious liberty exemptions to a law when granting such an exception could harm third parties. And it was especially reluctant to give religious liberty exemptions to businesses. As the Court explained in United States v. Lee (1982), “when followers of a particular sect enter into commercial activity as a matter of choice, the limits they accept on their own conduct as a matter of conscience and faith are not to be superimposed on the statutory schemes which are binding on others in that activity.”

Nevertheless, in Burwell v. Hobby Lobby (2014), the Supreme Court held, for the first time, that religious objectors may sometimes wield those objections to limit the rights of third parties — Hobby Lobby held that business owners who object to birth control may refuse to include contraceptive coverage in their employee’s health plans.

Thus far, however, the Court’s latest line of religious liberty cases has largely pitted conservative religious groups against laws favored by liberals, including laws protecting birth control access and laws prohibiting anti-LGBTQ discrimination. Hotze is different because the pandemic impacts Democrats and Republicans alike. Indeed, if the pastors behind Hotze get their way, the biggest losers are likely to be their parishioners, who will be at immediate risk of infection.

Hotze, in other words, potentially offers the courts an ideal vehicle to draw limits around the new “religious liberty” doctrines advanced by cases like Hobby Lobby. It’s hard to imagine a more compelling interest than preventing a deadly disease from spreading unchecked through the population. And Hotze shows that everyone, liberal and conservative alike, benefits from a society with universal laws.

https://www.vox.com/2020/4/1/21201104/texas-pastors-religious-liberty-coronavirus-stay-at-home-hotze

[UT_OB1 2217]

16 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Siemens....is located in Cumming?

My inner 12 year old is laughing like both Beavis AND Butthead.

Because I'm super mature.

I worked for a company called Berwanger when i graduated.  A few weeks after I started, we were bought out by Siemens.  The roll out slogan was Berwanger and Siemens coming together.... Yeah.  We weren't very mature then.  

[Beau Vine 54207]

 

13 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

I hate your sister in law

 

11 minutes ago, Macanudo said:

We all do.

I love reading about her, but yeah.

Edited April 1, 2020 by Beau Vine