Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

[utee94 15745]

Just now, Skipper said:

You realize death is a lagging indicator right?  There are a lot of guaranteed future deaths baked into the numbers every time more cases are reported.  Particularly since the "confirmed" numbers are going to trend towards serious cases rather than mild cases given testing limitations in most place.That's why you are starting to see death numbers increase daily in hardest hit areas. 

For sure, that's why it makes sense to align to some timing that states "since 100th death" or whatever.  This is the best approximation we have, for aligning the timelines.

 

[StruggleBus 3922]

1 hour ago, Chet Steadman said:

I don't see any College Football on that timeline?

100k people packed into stadiums isn’t happening any time this calendar year. Might as well just accept it at this point.

[dcar00 14035]

4 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

If we were only doing it at the State level. NGO I worked with reached out to the State today offering support. The response was that is a local issue. In Louisiana they reached out to New Orleans and were told this was a State level issue. And what they are offering is real and needed. Shitty time for every team to have a different playbook. 

Its like every cop show you've ever seen.

[dcar00 14035]

1 minute ago, StruggleBus said:

100k people packed into stadiums isn’t happening any time this calendar year. Might as well just accept it at this point.

aggy is going to blow a fucking gasket.

[Pato del Muerto 52342]

9 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

Oh sure, and I assume that is part of the reason the chart started at 100 confirmed cases rather 1. The difference between 100 and 105 is relatively minor, so you'd expect that foreign traveler thing to wash out in the numbers. It is certainly good that we haven't eclipsed Spain or Italy as a percentage of the population, so I guess the chart shows that. 

That’s the thing though. Did we get to 100 from ten places going from 1-10 at the same time?  2 going 1 to 50?  What about the other countries?

the assumption is that we have more isolated hot spots and therefore should grow quicker as they each grow exponentially independent of each other. 
 

I haven’t seen it modeled how the total growth is affected when the parameters are changed like that: 100 to 1000 using 10 sites of 10 infected vs 1 site of 100 infected vs 2/50 or 4/25.

we also have greater ability to community spread into new hotspots as things roll along.  How do you model such things with any kind of accuracy or precision, contemporaneously?

after the fact, I bet the smart people will find some models that fit the final facts. 

Edited April 2, 2020 by Pato del Muerto

[BradInATX 9208]

17 minutes ago, UT_OB1 said:

Remember a few weeks ago when you were talking about the covered up cases in Austin and how the hospitals we’re going to be overrun in less than a week?  And you wouldn’t be able to get an icu bed or ventilator?  

 

Ah, I did say they were going to be overrun in <1 week. Ah well. When you're wrong you're wrong. They're still going to get there, just not on the timeframe I guessed.

The 10 cases I mentioned happened and ended up being confirmed, though, despite cries of conspiracy theory.

Edited April 2, 2020 by BradInATX

[BillyGoatHill 4276]

15 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

aggy is going to blow a fucking gasket.

No. They'll just say they went UNDEFEATED (!)... and put another championship on the wall.

Edited April 2, 2020 by BillyGoatHill

[justhookit 4180]

Forest fires will kill the Coronavirus. I think you guys have solved our problem.

[immortal13 4059]

This popped up in my ads on Facebook today. Over $40 with shipping! Way to go ebay letting people price gouge on fucking flour.

 

[GabrielsHorn 2142]

15 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Hong Kong surging. 

The number of local infections in Hong Kong has increased by 80% to 103 over the past week from 57 the week before, raising the risk of a large-scale community outbreak in the city.

According to the Center for Health Protection, the number of people who were infected with the Covid-19 virus during the week ended April 1 was 355, 103 or 29% of whom had no travel history. The number of people who were infected during the week ended March 25 was 218, 57 or 26% of whom had no travel history.

With that and Japan's rising case numbers, we may be seeing round 2 in East Asia. 

[Chewbacca 7730]

I'm sure this has been covered in here already, but fuck going back 30 pages to find out.  

 

Anyone here know any of the little assholes from UT who chartered the plane to Mexico for Spring Break?  They, and their parents, all need to be beaten by the Indian Police with those cane poles.

 

https://www.wmur.com/article/a-group-of-about-70-embarked-on-a-spring-break-trip-now-44-of-them-have-tested-positive-for-coronavirus/32014651#

[Anastasis 23395]

2 minutes ago, immortal13 said:

This popped up in my ads on Facebook today. Over $40 with shipping! Way to go ebay letting people price gouge on fucking flour.

 

I hate people. 

[Pato del Muerto 52342]

8 minutes ago, Skipper said:

You realize death is a lagging indicator right?  There are a lot of guaranteed future deaths baked into the numbers every time more cases are reported.  Particularly since the "confirmed" numbers are going to trend towards serious cases rather than mild cases given testing limitations in most place.That's why you are starting to see death numbers increase daily in hardest hit areas. 

Yes but they are a lagging indicator everywhere and until Italy’s start to decline it’s a decent comparator, unless we are just able to keep people alive longer before they die and our lag time is extended. 

[Dahobbs 17447]

1 minute ago, Pato del Muerto said:

That’s the thing though. Did we get to 100 from ten places going from 1-10 at the same time?  2 going 1 to 50?  What about the other countries?

the assumption is that we have more isolated hot spots and therefore should grow quicker as they each grow exponentially independent of each other. 
 

I haven’t seen it modeled how the total growth is affected when the parameters are changed like that: 100 to 1000 using 10 sites of 10 infected vs 1 site of 100 infected vs 2/50 ca 4/25.

It shouldn't matter, at least in the beginning. The spread of the virus largely depends on characteristics of the virus. 1 person infects 3. 3 people infect 9. 9 people infect 27, and, here, 100 people infect 300. It shouldn't particularly matter whether those 100 are in the same city or spread across the country, at least not until a high percentage of the available population for the area is infected. You are right in the sense that 100 infections in a small town of 1,000 is going to tap out more quickly than 100 infections spread out over multiple similar sized towns or one large city. But, as others have said, we are connected enough that I'm pretty sure those issues are going to washout when you're talking about 10,000s of thousands of cases across countries with tens of millions of people. 

[tx 3 putt 76371]

Victoria, Tx County public health officials reported Thursday a COVID-19 outbreak at a Victoria healthcare center and suspended services there. Eleven employees have tested positive.

[Mrs Whiggins 13049]

6 minutes ago, StruggleBus said:

100k people packed into stadiums isn’t happening any time this calendar year. Might as well just accept it at this point.

 

4 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

aggy is going to blow a fucking gasket.

I doubt they will be the only one. Lot of college and professional coaching staffs ought to be bathing 20 times a day right now and hanging out in isolation rooms. Some of those guys have the comorbid health issues and/or age that make catching the virus dangerous. Looking at you Coach Bielema among others.

[BillyGoatHill 4276]

7 minutes ago, justhookit said:

Forest fires will kill the Coronavirus. I think you guys have solved our problem.

[Bevo 13527]

1 hour ago, Snake Diggity said:

How’s this for an expected timeline:

Apr 30: Nationwide stay-at-Home ends, cdc provides updated guidance on social distancing by geography, mass gatherings still prohibited everywhere.

May 24: Many lesser affected areas remove all restrictions; elderly and immunocompromised still advised to stay home nationwide

Jun 30: Successful treatment is established/standardized, all restrictions lifted except in hot spots.  Testing (both antibody and infection) finally readily available everywhere.

Jul 4: MLB season begins

Nov 30: Several new hot spots pop up, full quarantine implemented immediately 

Jan 31, 2021: vaccines available in limited supply

Mar 15, 2021: vaccine fully available, new long term normal established

 

You need to add, Texas wins national championship. Tom Herman earns multi-year extension. Kirk Bohls decides to voluntarily retire.

[dcar00 14035]

5 minutes ago, Mrs Whiggins said:

 

I doubt they will be the only one. Lot of college and professional coaching staffs ought to be bathing 20 times a day right now and hanging out in isolation rooms. Some of those guys have the comorbid health issues and/or age that make catching the virus dangerous. Looking at you Coach Bielema among others.

maybe they can Zoom to Smart TV's on the sidelines.

[Skipper 6103]

10 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Yes but they are a lagging indicator everywhere and until Italy’s start to decline it’s a decent comparator, unless we are just able to keep people alive longer before they die and our lag time is extended. 

Yeah, I'm not following you.  Italy (and the Lombardy region in particular) is weeks ahead of the US in the disease cycle.  Just like NY/NJ is ahead of other metro areas within the US.  Italy daily deaths are starting to flatten.  US daily deaths are just starting to rapidly increase.  

Edited April 2, 2020 by Skipper

[InkaUtexas 25517]

9 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

Victoria, Tx County public health officials reported Thursday a COVID-19 outbreak at a Victoria healthcare center and suspended services there. Eleven employees have tested positive.

We need to expect more of this. Medical personnel will get tired. They do not have enough equipment. Shitty situation. 

[Thetexashammer 1062]

4 Million are partially or completely unemployed in France. That's equivalent to 20 million in the US, roughly.

https://www.thelocal.fr/20200401/chomage-partiel-how-to-access-temporary-unemployment-in-france

Quote

Some 4 million workers in France are currently temporarily or partially unemployed as the coronavirus crisis brings businesses to a halt. Here’s how you can access support.
With much of France’s economy at a standstill as a result of Covid-19 measures, millions of people are unable to work and 337,000 companies - many in the tourism and leisure sectors - have halted work entirely.

France has unveiled a package of measures that offer support to self-employed people and small businesses.

Spain unemployment was 14.2% in OCT 19.  Only has 300k reporting unemployment, however, 800k "stopped paying into social security". 

Of course this is only the first wave of bad things to come. It's worth nothing the France GDP is 15% lower than 2008, and Spain GDP is 20% lower. European economies are fragile, slowly shrinking, highly regulated, and heavily indebted. Although to be fair, money just falls from helicopters these days.

I mentioned in the market thread, it is important to realize that governments don't have the power to print money the way we do in the US. The discussion nowadays in the EU revolves around "Eurobonds", or the newly names "Coronabonds". Of course, the northern countries are refusing to subsidize the southern countries overspending. And borrowing is very limited for places like Italy, which already had debt to GDP over 140%, and will likely see closer to 200% after this.

Il Giornale's headline currently states ""Now sell Italian securities.The attack order from Berlin."  There are stories about city mayors and others who normally fly the EU flag (they're everywhere) taking them down after Italy asked for help from the EU and every single EU member refused. Italy's economy is down 20% from 2008 and unemployment was recently 9.7%. Limited reports of mafia activity and food riots down in Sicily, so, situation normal down there.

 

Edited April 2, 2020 by Thetexashammer

[Onboard 2.0 9083]

26 minutes ago, Hate said:

Yes they did, but it may have been worse if they had used the fucked up Chinese tests already in use.

But look how much money they would have saved if they'd used the Chinese test...

[Onboard 2.0 9083]

1 hour ago, crash_davis said:

Thanks. Corrected the link.

And doesn't every man desire to be pegged? is that wrong?

Nowthis has a sock ?? ^^^^

[tx 3 putt 76371]

4 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

We need to expect more of this. Medical personnel will get tired. They do not have enough equipment. Shitty situation. 

 

a county like Victoria is the hub for all the surrounding counties, especially for medical. huge hit to the whole area 

Edited April 2, 2020 by tx 3 putt

[pacman 7329]

17 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

agreed but the choice was use what WHO had put out as the German test process.  we were never going to use the Chinese tests. we did our own, per CDC recomendation and probably cost us 1.5-2 weeks.

my point was everyone screaming about medical professionals not fucking up, let them handle this, yada yada hair on fire...yeah about that.

Well, when asked who made that decision, Pence declined to state whether it was the cdc staff, him, or a superior.

There isn't a ton of evidence right now to suggest that medical professionals are making all, or any, of the federal decisions, especially in the early stages of our response.

It also wasn't the decision to not request access to the WHO tests that did us in really. It was the poor implementation of the US created test and testing process. On that front, we have few details behind who drove the decisions made that lead to the ineffectiveness. I did read somewhere that SOP for cdc is probably to create and utilize their own tests but haven't seen it confirmed.

[Cheeseweasel 26437]

27 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

aggy is going to blow a fucking gasket.

Or claim another NC.

@BillyGoatHill beat me to it

Edited April 2, 2020 by Cheeseweasel

[JesusSweatDuck 17780]

34 minutes ago, Casual Encounter said:

Well, I have been known to chase pussy. 

[dcar00 14035]

Just now, pacman said:

Well, when asked who made that decision, Pence declined to state whether it was the cdc staff, him, or a superior.

There isn't a ton of evidence right now to suggest that medical professionals are making all, or any, of the federal decisions, especially in the early stages of our response.

It also wasn't the decision to not request access to the WHO tests that did us in really. It was the poor implementation of the US created test and testing process. On that front, we have few details behind who drove the decisions made that lead to the ineffectiveness. I did read somewhere that SOP for cdc is probably to create and utilize their own tests but haven't seen it confirmed.

Yes Pence declined.  it will come out later but I can easily see CDC saying "we got this"  for exactly the reason that SOP for CDC,  to say we can handle it (my speculation : probably with the it won't cost us much more time and we will know it is right).  yes "poor implementation" = we fucked up the test.  no one knows if we would have fucked up the German test process had we chose to use it.

[Cheeseweasel 26437]

3 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

it will come out later but I can easily see CDC saying "we got this"  for exactly the reason that SOP for CDC,  to say we can handle i

Likely due to integrity of the chain. You develop the test, so you understand what the results are telling you. It may cost you a few days on the front end, but you make up for it on the back end as you understand the process and can trust the results.

[Sabalo 994]

https://mexiconewsdaily.com/news/coronavirus/halting-beer-production-alcohol-sales-triggers-panic-buying/

 

 

[Sbbruin 21733]

34 minutes ago, justhookit said:

Forest fires will kill the Coronavirus. I think you guys have solved our problem.

We’ll have our fair share of those.  Good to know.

[bolverk 29399]

37 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

That’s the thing though. Did we get to 100 from ten places going from 1-10 at the same time?  2 going 1 to 50?  What about the other countries?

the assumption is that we have more isolated hot spots and therefore should grow quicker as they each grow exponentially independent of each other. 
 

I haven’t seen it modeled how the total growth is affected when the parameters are changed like that: 100 to 1000 using 10 sites of 10 infected vs 1 site of 100 infected vs 2/50 or 4/25.

we also have greater ability to community spread into new hotspots as things roll along.  How do you model such things with any kind of accuracy or precision, contemporaneously?

after the fact, I bet the smart people will find some models that fit the final facts. 

If you've got 23 minutes, this is the best thing I've seen posted. It's a really powerful demonstration of various computer simulations of infection rate, central points of spread like grocery stores, and how it spreads from community to community. I highly recommend anyone watch it to have a better understanding.

Hat tip goes to another poster who I can't remember.

 

[Hanrahan 1306]

24 minutes ago, Bevo said:

You need to add, Texas wins national championship. Tom Herman earns multi-year extension. Kirk Bohls decides to voluntarily retire. is mauled to death by a rabid honey badger the day before he would have succumbed to Corvid 19.

 

[Bozo_Casanova 26279]

2 hours ago, tjhooker said:

This is what I wanted to see. The US is so much larger than those countries yet they were comparing us like apples to apples.  We are many fold below many countries per capita.  Comparing total cases or deaths is stupid without context like this. 

Translation: this view of data supports my beliefs and is therefore the right one. 

[fattyflattie 4636]

41 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

aggy is going to blow a fucking gasket.

Luckily they don't have a crazy debt service on some piecemeal tackle box stadium. And WTI is $24.   Their 6A schedule greatest year evar!!!1! should be the last thing on their minds right now.

[MNLonghornFUKM 8799]

Mayo Clinic ramping up antibody tests. Should be ready to go by Monday


https://www.mprnews.org/story/2020/04/01/mayo-clinic-expects-covid19-antibody-test-to-be-ready-monday

[Pato del Muerto 52342]

13 minutes ago, bolverk said:

If you've got 23 minutes, this is the best thing I've seen posted. It's a really powerful demonstration of various computer simulations of infection rate, central points of spread like grocery stores, and how it spreads from community to community. I highly recommend anyone watch it to have a better understanding.

Hat tip goes to another poster who I can't remember.

 

As it happens, I do have a little free time.   Just as soon as I’m done watching masked singer. 

Edited April 2, 2020 by Pato del Muerto

[NotActuallyALonghorn 4968]

48 minutes ago, Chewbacca said:

I'm sure this has been covered in here already, but fuck going back 30 pages to find out.  

 

Anyone here know any of the little assholes from UT who chartered the plane to Mexico for Spring Break?  They, and their parents, all need to be beaten by the Indian Police with those cane poles.

 

https://www.wmur.com/article/a-group-of-about-70-embarked-on-a-spring-break-trip-now-44-of-them-have-tested-positive-for-coronavirus/32014651#

I heard they all also went to the Houston Rodeo.

[Liquor and Poker 3659]

54 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

aggy is going to blow a fucking gasket.

Like they ever legitimately had 100k in the tacklebox.

[Homercles 10205]

1 hour ago, dcar00 said:

when we reopen the olds need to be lockeddown.

[dcar00 14035]

6 minutes ago, NotActuallyALonghorn said:

I heard they all also went to the Houston Rodeo.

And a cruise out of Galveston 

[Deej 76566]

1 hour ago, dcar00 said:

aggy is going to blow a fucking gasket.

They'd have to space people every 9th seat to keep a 6 foot distance 

[Sgt Hulk 13647]

guys i just need to know if im doing my ironman in North carolina in october. 

 

thnx

[NoName 16296]

Just now, Sgt Hulk said:

guys i just need to know if im doing my ironman in North carolina in october. 

 

thnx

[SHOOTER12 8789]

I had a number come to mind last week but it sounded so ridiculous I didn't want to even put it out there.  However seeing as how we have a far more idiotic population than I realized, I'll make my call at 125,000-150,000 lives lost here in the US.

I hope and pray that I'm miles off because the thought of it makes me sick.

[Anastasis 23395]

1 minute ago, SHOOTER12 said:

I had a number come to mind last week but it sounded so ridiculous I didn't want to even put it out there.  However seeing as how we have a far more idiotic population than I realized, I'll make my call at 125,000-150,000 lives lost here in the US.

I hope and pray that I'm miles off because the thought of it makes me sick.

I think that we are well under 100k, but despite the darkness of my soul I am foolishly optimistic. 

[Pato del Muerto 52342]

2 minutes ago, SHOOTER12 said:

I had a number come to mind last week but it sounded so ridiculous I didn't want to even put it out there.  However seeing as how we have a far more idiotic population than I realized, I'll make my call at 125,000-150,000 lives lost here in the US.

I hope and pray that I'm miles off because the thought of it makes me sick.

Why? 2 million Americans die every year. There would be some overlap in the numbers, some of your 125k would have died of something else by the end of the year. 
 

I think 125k would be a big win and wouldn’t really feel sick until we hit a million.  Which I feel we may have been looking at without mitigation. 

[Bozo_Casanova 26279]

1 hour ago, crash_davis said:

 

In addition to Mardi Gras, I wonder if this asshole and his stupid fucking flock have anything to do with the increase?

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronavirus-louisiana-life-tabernacle-church-packed-services-again-charges-against-pastor-tony-spell/

Flanked by some of his congregation, including children and older people, Spell emerged from the church later Tuesday night and said he is going to keep his church doors open. He said he doesn't consider doing that any different than keeping the doors of Walmart open.

...but you can't put him on layaway.

[Coelenterate Fuccboi 13010]

49 minutes ago, Onboard 2.0 said:

Nowthis has a sock ?? ^^^^

A “pink sock” (urban dictionary).