Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

[Liquor and Poker 3659]

Just now, Walden Ponderer said:

I'm re-using some old painters masks; not a great solution, but it's all I've got, until there's more on the shelves. Do what I can (spray with alcohol, dry in the sun for UV), but i'm no biomedical engineer. This issue, like so many other things in this crisis, really comes down to applying common sense and hoping for the best.

I am spraying my masks with armor all.  I figure it will make the virus slide off.

[Digdogger 1344]

23 minutes ago, LABEVO said:

 

Tropheus really knew what he was doing

[JBJ 3664]

On 3/30/2020 at 10:12 AM, JBJ said:

We undershot the trend everyday last week and are doing a bit better than my 70% reduction model.

Deaths are still roughly on trend, but this is not unexpected.  I should be able to actually get a firm lag period out of this.

Transmission 10-day trend is 0.26, down from 0.35 last Monday.

5-day trend is 0.21, down from 0.39 last Monday.

If we stay on the current trend, Friday's O/U: 447,692 cases.

The reduction model's O/U: 303,639 cases.

 

I'll probably attempt a rebuild some time this week.  We have a good idea of the exposed -> reported case time frame.  Should be getting a good idea of exposed -> death lag time.  I wish there was information out there on hospitalizations and intubations, as the real goal is to keep those down.

We keep looking very close to the goal scenario.  The only thing changed is I added a 7-day lag time between reporting and death for both scenarios.  Not sure if that makes it looks better or worse, but hopefully better in the future.

 

Here are the infection (blue) and mortality (orange) rates.  I re-colorized this since last posted. The 10-day trends should be easier to make out now.  In the goal scenario we should eventually hit 0.10 (around April 19th on the 10-day trend).  So we may be on the right path, but there's still a ways to go.  If my lag periods are is correct, then we should have seen just the glimpse of deaths beginning to slow on March 30.   This maybe happened but it is far from certain.  Everything is currently trending down.

 

----------

Still working on model rebuild.  It should be a big improvement in forecasting out beyond a few days.

['stache 21827]

If its going to be recommended that we wear masks for essential trips to the grocery store (which is the only place I've been outside of my house for several weeks), I don't want to buy from Amazon or take away from healthcare workers, but I also can't sew. I read an article that blue shop towels work well enough for quick trips (as opposed to extended exposure for healthcare workers) and might try that with rubber bands or something. Anyone done any diy masks that aren't perfect but good enough for some security while at the grocery store?

[Loco 3753]

 

32 minutes ago, MonkeyDoughnut said:

I know the overall coverage on this is to limit exposure and flatter curve, etc. and areas like NYC need dramatic drops quick, but other areas in the country, are the spread rates too low?  Any data/studies that show what a target spread rate would be ideal?

My concern is were shutting some areas off too quick and too much while others obviously not enough.  There is a definite balance between dragging this out too long vs not long enough.

Can you provide examples of where we're "shutting some areas off too quick and too much"

[Skipper 6185]

5 minutes ago, Js1 said:

 

Not unexpected but depressing.  I think better to do it this way than let people get their hopes up that this is just 2 more weeks, etc.

[Loco 3753]

3 minutes ago, Liquor and Poker said:

I am spraying my masks with armor all.  I figure it will make the virus slide off.

You're thinking Rain-x

[Skipper 6185]

Just now, 'stache said:

If its going to be recommended that we wear masks for essential trips to the grocery store (which is the only place I've been outside of my house for several weeks), I don't want to buy from Amazon or take away from healthcare workers, but I also can't sew. I read an article that blue shop towels work well enough for quick trips (as opposed to extended exposure for healthcare workers) and might try that with rubber bands or something. Anyone done any diy masks that aren't perfect but good enough for some security while at the grocery store?

I know someone said masks are available on amazon (surgical, not N95 that healthcare workers need) but I didn't see anything with delivery this month when I looked.    If someone did please post.  I think DIY masks are going to be best most can do in the near term.

[Captainant 27722]

4 minutes ago, Hate said:

There is also a “user” element to these vulnerabilities just as there are with email vulnerabilities. There are a lot of people logging on now that have no prior experience to working this way and are unable to recognize legitimate links from “phishing” type links. Zoom needs to fix their issues as quickly as possible, but users also need to educated as to what to look for when their meeting has been compromised. I would also assume a large majority of these “security issues” were a result of people not setting up passwords for their meetings which is something nobody would ever recommend. I don’t know that for a fact, but it would not surprise me at all.

Absolutely the case with some of the vulns that users are the attack vector. But those remote code executions vulns required zero authentication or local user actions for a remote user to do things on a local machine. Apple removed it from their Mac app store last year for such a vulnerability. Best way to make yourself safe from them when you aren't using zoom is to fully close and quit the application when you're done using it so it shuts off the local webserver that is the attack vector

[bolverk 29705]

22 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

I've been using this to come up with percentages and day-over-day changes on my own. It's solid.

https://covidtracking.com/data/

That's the one I couldn't recall.

[gmr548 16590]

no magic bullet for sure but it might keep someone in the right age/complication zone from getting to ventilator situation.  I think people are so for it because it seems to not have bad side effects so its a might as well try it.

People are so excited about it because there haven't been any significant treatment breakthroughs and they want something to pin hope on. Evidence is iffy at best, but that's the best short term news there's been. Even if it works the way you mentioned, helping people improve quicker and stay out of ICU when treated early, that's potential for real impact. So that's something. Of course, most people are showing up at hospitals when it gets bad.

this must be why we kept shaka smart.

This is not getting enough love.

[JesusSweatDuck 17796]

6 minutes ago, 'stache said:

If its going to be recommended that we wear masks for essential trips to the grocery store (which is the only place I've been outside of my house for several weeks), I don't want to buy from Amazon or take away from healthcare workers, but I also can't sew. I read an article that blue shop towels work well enough for quick trips (as opposed to extended exposure for healthcare workers) and might try that with rubber bands or something. Anyone done any diy masks that aren't perfect but good enough for some security while at the grocery store?

 

[gmr548 16590]

If its going to be recommended that we wear masks for essential trips to the grocery store (which is the only place I've been outside of my house for several weeks), I don't want to buy from Amazon or take away from healthcare workers, but I also can't sew. I read an article that blue shop towels work well enough for quick trips (as opposed to extended exposure for healthcare workers) and might try that with rubber bands or something. Anyone done any diy masks that aren't perfect but good enough for some security while at the grocery store?

Even something like a dish towel or a pillow case will reduce the potential spread/exposure by over 50 percent. Not perfect, but if everyone adopts, 50+ percent is an enormous reduction.

[utee94 15841]

4 minutes ago, Skipper said:

I know someone said masks are available on amazon (surgical, not N95 that healthcare workers need) but I didn't see anything with delivery this month when I looked.    If someone did please post.  I think DIY masks are going to be best most can do in the near term.

I didn't see any on Amazon that would arrive within the next 4 weeks,  these on Walmart look like they might, and there were some others on Walmart that might as well:

https://www.walmart.com/ip/100PCs-disposable-dust-proof-masks-3-layer-filter-dustproof-non-woven-masks-contrast/608303608

 

[stone oak 639]

14 minutes ago, Js1 said:

 

*"stay at home" order

Edited April 3, 2020 by stone oak

[freyguy 4284]

6 minutes ago, Loco said:

You're thinking Rain-x

[dcar00 14321]

2 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

People are so excited about it because there haven't been any significant treatment breakthroughs and they want something to pin hope on. Evidence is iffy at best, but that's the best short term news there's been. Even if it works the way you mentioned, helping people improve quicker and stay out of ICU when treated early, that's potential for real impact. So that's something. Of course, most people are showing up at hospitals when it gets bad.

This is not getting enough love.

agreed but I guess my point was that if there were some known bad side effects, people would shy away.  with no known bad side effects people are like why not.  I think that was where the FDA was going also by emergency approval. I think someone upthread said a friend went in for a test, got a positive and was give the HCQ/z-pack and told to go home but maybe I misunderstood. 

[bolverk 29705]

8 minutes ago, Skipper said:

I know someone said masks are available on amazon (surgical, not N95 that healthcare workers need) but I didn't see anything with delivery this month when I looked.    If someone did please post.  I think DIY masks are going to be best most can do in the near term.

This is the earliest I could find for medical masks.

$9.88
+ $5.99 shipping
Arrives: April 24 - May 15

https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B084M7M2D1/ref=ppx_yo_dt_b_asin_title_o01_s00?ie=UTF8&psc=1

I also ordered this for the meantime:

$19.99
 & FREE Returns 
FREE delivery: April 15 - 16 Details

https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B0865XBYSD/ref=ppx_yo_dt_b_asin_title_o00_s00?ie=UTF8&psc=1

Until then, DYI.

[pacman 7369]

37 minutes ago, Hate said:

Thanks. I just ordered some as well as some gloves. Saturday night sexy time is about to get a little more fun.

screw masks, i have been wearing my deadpool costume everywhere, no covid here

[bigup2dahorns 3343]

This is the earliest I could find for medical masks.

Until then, DYI.

Thanks Yoda

[dcar00 14321]

general public really need to stop freaking out about the masks.   there are any number of ways of covering your mouth/nose in a grocery store for 20 minutes or picking up to go.  the risk of someone getting it outside their home while walking through someone's cough or sneeze has to be extremely low if you are staying away from people.  common sense.

[Pato del Muerto 52553]

41 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

I wouldn't pay that tuition.  That's ridiculous.  My wife teaches at a church-based preschool and the most they've done is implore parents to continue to pay tuition "if they can".  Right now, base paychecks (which don't include significant bumps for things like late stay and penalties for late child pickup) are flowing, but I don't think that's gonna last for even another pay cycle.

Extra bonus:  since it's a 501c3, employees don't qualify for unemployment.

501c3 can apply for the sba loans to make payroll though. And those will be forgiven if they are used to make payroll and no layoffs. 

[Mrs Whiggins 13050]

39 minutes ago, Hate said:

Thanks. I just ordered some as well as some gloves. Saturday night sexy time is about to get a little more fun.

Until you've worn a clean bra as a face mask in the produce aisle, have you really lived?

1 minute ago, pacman said:

screw masks, i have been wearing my deadpool costume everywhere, no covid here

Now that's the spirit! "Fourth wall break inside of a fourth wall break? That's like 16 walls!"

[bolverk 29705]

1 minute ago, Pato del Muerto said:

501c3 can apply for the sba loans to make payroll though. And those will be forgiven if they are used to make payroll and no layoffs. 

I think all the 501c classifications can apply.

['stache 21827]

4 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

general public really need to stop freaking out about the masks.   there are any number of ways of covering your mouth/nose in a grocery store for 20 minutes or picking up to go.  the risk of someone getting it outside their home while walking through someone's cough or sneeze has to be extremely low if you are staying away from people.  common sense.

I also mainly need it just as a reminder not to touch my face.

[MissingInAction 25156]

38 minutes ago, Captainant said:

Fair that 5 vulns isn't that much, but they've got several extremely severe remote code execution bugs across all platforms, along with man in the middle vulnerabilities. Which is concerning since the existence of those vulns runs counter to HIPPA and PCI requirements, which they're claiming to meet. 

The bugs have technically been patched, but it's incumbent on the users to upgrade their client version to get the fix, and zoom is still servicing old client versions, so it's not really resolved yet. 

And there's yet more vulns coming out, like the aforementioned contact and photo sharing with emails that share an org or domain. But neither here nor there. If you use zoom, I'd advise closing and quitting the program when you aren't using it. Some of the Mac vulns from last year let remote users turn on mics and cameras without local user input. 

As an IT "professional", MIA fully endorses this.

The bulk of my work now is due to dipshits that have never worked remotely.

It is fucking brutal, but that is my role to play.

Edited April 3, 2020 by MissingInAction

['stache 21827]

17 minutes ago, JesusSweatDuck said:

 

Nice, that's pretty much what I was thinking of. I remembered that I have a mask for running in cold weather and am going to place a folded papertowel inside. That's good enough for me.

[Pato del Muerto 52553]

12 minutes ago, bolverk said:

This is the earliest I could find for medical masks.

$9.88
+ $5.99 shipping
Arrives: April 24 - May 15

https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B084M7M2D1/ref=ppx_yo_dt_b_asin_title_o01_s00?ie=UTF8&psc=1

I also ordered this for the meantime:

$19.99
 & FREE Returns 
FREE delivery: April 15 - 16 Details

https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B0865XBYSD/ref=ppx_yo_dt_b_asin_title_o00_s00?ie=UTF8&psc=1

Until then, DYI.

About 2 weeks ago we ordered masked from amazon to be delivered next week to my grandparents’ house. That order had said shipped, but yesterday it was cancelled and a refund provided.  they were n95. 
not sure what that means for the current supply line. 
 

[Dahobbs 17634]

29 minutes ago, JesusSweatDuck said:

HIPAA compliance doesn't actually require much security.  It's terrifying TBH

HIPAA compliance is really a varying standard that largely depends on the organization, the level of information potentially accessible, and the overall risk of the organization. It doesn't mean any one thing. 

[ShaggyBevo RIP 3868]

2 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

HIPAA compliance is really a varying standard that largely depends on the organization, the level of information potentially accessible, and the overall risk of the organization. It doesn't mean any one thing. 

Lot of medical privacy stuff has been waived for the pandemic.

[dcar00 14321]

6 minutes ago, 'stache said:

I also mainly need it just as a reminder not to touch my face.

agreed. if it helps go for it.  you can add a straightjacket also.  combo something like below.

[SydneyCarton 48146]

3 minutes ago, Dr. Beeper said:

John Wiley Price only dissenting vote. 

Jesus, that shitbag survived his court cases and having his assets seized? Fucking hell. 

[Cheeseweasel 26438]

15 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

general public really need to stop freaking out about the masks.   there are any number of ways of covering your mouth/nose in a grocery store for 20 minutes or picking up to go.  the risk of someone getting it outside their home while walking through someone's cough or sneeze has to be extremely low if you are staying away from people.  common sense.

It also gives people a false sense of security. Stay home fuckers!

[Liquor and Poker 3659]

18 minutes ago, bolverk said:

This is the earliest I could find for medical masks.

$9.88
+ $5.99 shipping
Arrives: April 24 - May 15

https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B084M7M2D1/ref=ppx_yo_dt_b_asin_title_o01_s00?ie=UTF8&psc=1

I also ordered this for the meantime:

$19.99
 & FREE Returns 
FREE delivery: April 15 - 16 Details

https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B0865XBYSD/ref=ppx_yo_dt_b_asin_title_o00_s00?ie=UTF8&psc=1

Until then, DYI.

Seriously, I have some Home Depot brand sanding masks with the little metal part you bend to fit over your nose, but they're so old the rubber band just snaps when you pull on it slightly. They are a lot more than a decade old - I'd guess from about 2001-02.

Do they go bad?  Are these better than surgical masks?  They don't say anything on the package about n95 or n anything. 

[closetojumping 62777]

If you check out the source data being used to report on each state at worldometers, you'll find an interesting array of sources. Some states have very clean reporting data and it looks as if that is the only source being used for that state. Those are usually dashboards framing up the data from the state's health services arm.

Other states don't appear to have that and ... I view those feeds into the system as problematic. NY's info is a piecemealing of multiple dashboards and newspaper tracking site.

Texas has provided their own dashboard, and it's good, but then worldometers is building from that with tracking from the Chronicle and a Dallas media site, and it looks to me like the Chronicle is creating redundancies that worldometers is counting on top of the state site. That's just a guess from watching the last week on the trends and data specifics side of things. It's not enough of a disparity in Texas to be anything but noise right now, in any event. If the virus truly blooms in Texas? There could be a single source of truth issue.

Nevada's state site is a dashboard that has better information in it than others. I wish Texas, NJ, Florida, and various other ones would build on their with the extra information NV is tracking. Check it out: https://app.powerbigov.us/view?r=eyJrIjoiMjA2ZThiOWUtM2FlNS00MGY5LWFmYjUtNmQwNTQ3Nzg5N2I2IiwidCI6ImU0YTM0MGU2LWI4OWUtNGU2OC04ZWFhLTE1NDRkMjcwMzk4MCJ9

[Shut up Lou Holtz 2046]

43 minutes ago, Js1 said:

 

I wonder how long Austin is behind that?

[Assman 1830]

These stay at home orders aren't going to amount for shit until retail/home improvement/other shopping entities start making changes.  People are getting bored at home and just walking around stores for hours and that isn't going to stop the spread.  I realize shit happens and you might need a pipe fitting in a pinch, but you shouldn't be allow to browse the fabric aisle at Hobby Lobby just because you're tired of home schooling your kids. 

They should completely shut down all "non-essential" retail now, and "essential" stores need to limit the amount of people in the store at one time.  This would not only limit close contact, but would discourage people from leaving the house just to browse.  Grocery stores would be the only exemption from this.

[Loco 3753]

21 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

general public really need to stop freaking out about the masks.   there are any number of ways of covering your mouth/nose in a grocery store for 20 minutes or picking up to go.  the risk of someone getting it outside their home while walking through someone's cough or sneeze has to be extremely low if you are staying away from people.  common sense.

 

[dcar00 14321]

7 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

About 2 weeks ago we ordered masked from amazon to be delivered next week to my grandparents’ house. That order had said shipped, but yesterday it was cancelled and a refund provided.  they were n95. 
not sure what that means for the current supply line. 
 

IMO the original no real need for masks was to get the medical/industrial grade supply line under control for the front line medical folks as well as to try stall some panic. just my opinion of course.

I was in home depot about a 5 weeks ago to get 2 masks to use for lawn work(allergies).  picked up 2 R95(was all they had) and there was only about 5 on the shelf.

[LABEVO 928]

1 minute ago, Assman said:

These stay at home orders aren't going to amount for shit until retail/home improvement/other shopping entities start making changes.  People are getting bored at home and just walking around stores for hours and that isn't going to stop the spread.  I realize shit happens and you might need a pipe fitting in a pinch, but you shouldn't be allow to browse the fabric aisle at Hobby Lobby just because you're tired of home schooling your kids. 

They should completely shut down all "non-essential" retail now, and "essential" stores need to limit the amount of people in the store at one time.  This would not only limit close contact, but would discourage people from leaving the house just to browse.  Grocery stores would be the only exemption from this.

LA has threaten to shut off water and power to any businesses that ignores the order and determined non-essential. 

[SizzleChest 8284]

1 minute ago, Loco said:

 

[InkaUtexas 26031]

16 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

About 2 weeks ago we ordered masked from amazon to be delivered next week to my grandparents’ house. That order had said shipped, but yesterday it was cancelled and a refund provided.  they were n95. 
not sure what that means for the current supply line. 
 

It means they are being allocated to medical and government. Could be part of the DPA announcement. 

[F250 28809]

14 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

HIPAA compliance is really a varying standard that largely depends on the organization, the level of information potentially accessible, and the overall risk of the organization. It doesn't mean any one thing. 

HIPAA is the regulatory equivalent of "Be Best."

[Cheeseweasel 26438]

2 minutes ago, LABEVO said:

LA has threaten to shut off water and power to any businesses that ignores the order and determined non-essential. 

I can't wait for the lawsuits.

[Pato del Muerto 52553]

1 minute ago, InkaUtexas said:

It means they are being allocated to medical and government. Could be part of the DPA announcement. 

That’s what we figured, it just doesn’t jibe with the posters saying there’s stock on amazon right now.  I guess my point was to warn that even ordering them for those far off delivery dates won’t ensure you get them. 

[achooloco 1072]

5 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I’ve been holding out with hope that the lack of coronavirus spreading widely in South America or Africa was due to the temperature/humidity theory. Then I see some videos of Ecuador in crisis even though their official numbers are very low. And these are cities where it’s still 90 degrees.

Thats partly because Guayaquil went idiot just like florida did. They had to block all expressways in and out of the city, and institute a 4pm curfew cause the first week of recommended SiP the dumbasses went partying and gave zero fucks. They played stupid games....

[B00M 6436]

2 hours ago, closetojumping said:

There should be no issue with someone asking a friend or family member "is this all going to be worth it?" What is happening is unprecedented

The issue is models suggest if even a small percentage of us (like 10%) do stupid, selfish shit... It will probably not be worth it. All we will have done is bought a little time (which absolutely has value but I digress)... So when folks question whether this is worth it, implying that they aren't all-in themselves, impressionable idiots (think Chad Briscoe) will see that as a green light to go do what they want. It's therefore of the utmost importance to maintain a clear, unquestioned message: stay the fuck home. 

 

 

[closetojumping 62777]

New Jersey had a big day over day jump in both real (970 more new cases today than yesterday (3335 vs 4305)) and relative (29% jump) terms with positive cases. However, their new daily deaths toll went down by 40%. 

Louisiana had the opposite phenomenon. 58% fewer new cases, day over day. 2726 vs 1147 today. However, they went from 37 to 60 new deaths, day over day, for a 62% jump. 

You can't really determine jack shit from thinking about this day over day, but fuck it, seems like there's time to spare.

[NeverMarryAStripper 21919]

1 hour ago, LABEVO said:

 

Great, I'm male, have a chronic lung condition, and I'm old.  If I start running a fever I'm just going to go out in the garage, crank up the generator, and settle into a lawn chair with a tall glass of bourbon.  Least I can do is to save a ventilator for someone with a chance

Edited April 3, 2020 by NeverMarryAStripper

[Eastwood 4394]

On the mask issue, I ordered HEPA vacuum bags and took a razor to them to cut them into squares large enough to cover the nose and mouth. Tape into the inside of a balaclava, go on the grocery run, come home, take mask out of balaclava, toss in outside trash, drop balaclava into hot soapy water. At a clip of once a week, I have a year's supply through that method.