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Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away


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Posted
1 hour ago, XYZ said:

If they are going for elimination, then it looks to me like it’s not quite working. They are holding steady on daily new cases, which is much better than most other countries, but you need a decline if you want to eliminate it. Still, even if they were able to pull it off, then what? You keep your borders closed to the outside world until there’s a vaccine? Herd immunity or vaccine, those are the only two solutions.

Mandatory testing/quarantine for all people entering the country.  They are an island.  They can do it.

Posted

Day one of quarantine: [me to my wife] Alright, this is among other things a new economic reality. Cash is king. We need to avoid spending any unnecessary cash so we can be prepared for whatever comes.

Day whatever of quarantine: [I buy a $350 Dutch Oven]

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  • Haha 1
Posted
1 hour ago, XYZ said:

If they are going for elimination, then it looks to me like it’s not quite working. They are holding steady on daily new cases, which is much better than most other countries, but you need a decline if you want to eliminate it. Still, even if they were able to pull it off, then what? You keep your borders closed to the outside world until there’s a vaccine? Herd immunity or vaccine, those are the only two solutions.

No, the other is to aggressively identify and isolate new cases. The practical effect can be the same as herd immunity. It is just a lot harder to do when you have a ton of new cases every day. 

Posted
6 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

None, I'm rooting for deaths, didn't the CTJ out front tell you?

Yeah, you're going to need a big run-up over the next four days. You predicted 10,000 deaths/day starting on Friday, argued for it emphatically in the last week of March and batted aside the premise of mitigation playing a role, and then doubled-down on this thread last Wednesday by restating the same.

I don't know, early numbers today don't look great for the living. High death toll for NY, high early half day update for FL, Indiana looks like it could be flaring up really poorly for the living. Georgia posted some catch-up numbers on the death toll side so that number is inflated in reality, but still not good.

Today could be the highest death toll for the US yet. Sucks. Was hoping to see the top end hold the line a bit. We won't be anywhere near 10k/day by Friday or within 25,000 of dipshit's numbers he called for by the start of next Wednesday, but it would be nice to see the plateau take hold and then dip in the next week. Probably fantasy, but it beats alternative choices.

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Posted
3 minutes ago, woohorn said:

I am guessing that University isn't anywhere near Wall Street...
 

I like the sometime next year part. My 401k match all gets deposited over the last 4 pay checks of the year. I’m hoping the market recovery is slow and steady. 

Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

Yeah, you're going to need a big run-up over the next four days. You predicted 10,000 deaths/day starting on Friday, argued for it emphatically in the last week of March and batted aside the premise of mitigation playing a role, and then doubled-down on this thread last Wednesday by restating the same.

I don't know, early numbers today don't look great for the living. High death toll for NY, high early half day update for FL, Indiana looks like it could be flaring up really poorly for the living. Georgia posted some catch-up numbers on the death toll side so that number is inflated in reality, but still not good.

Today could be the highest death toll for the US yet. Sucks. Was hoping to see the top end hold the line a bit. We won't be anywhere near 10k/day by Friday or within 25,000 of dipshit's numbers he called for by the start of next Wednesday, but it would be nice to see the plateau take hold and then dip in the next week. Probably fantasy, but it beats alternative choices.

Even with the revised IHME model, to meet their new peak of 3100 deaths per day next week, we’re underneath their projection 3 days in a row now. Unless we start hitting well into the 2000’s soon they will have to revise their total deaths down again. 

Edited by heso
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Posted
2 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

That isn't what happened. But, please keep us apprised tomorrow, you know, two days from now. 

Yes, that's what happened. It's in the thread. You'll lawyer it up and go full pedant at some point to attempt to prove otherwise, but you declaratively panicporned the thread and weren't even close to reality. It's good comedy during a shitty time, in any event, so thanks for that.

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Posted
4 hours ago, gecko said:

 

Gottlieb seems to be one of the sharpest people around and has been tweeting a lot about how we open things back up and the "massive surveillance system" we need.    That sounds great and all but then we see the WFAA story last night confirming what I've assumed indicating that numerous people that were tested 14 to 16 days ago that haven't received test results. 

 For Dallas specifically, I'm optimistic that the hospitalization data we'll see today and on Friday this week will show that the curve is beginning to flatten.   And based on the data of open hospital beds and ICU beds currently, Dallas clearly doesn't appear to be on the precipice of being overrun.  But there has been pretty much no talk about the testing infrastructure still sucking ass and what our plan is to fix it.

We flat out can't open up in May if there are limited tests available and people are waiting 2 weeks for results.  That is a recipe for disaster.   And from what I've gathered, there hasn't been any improvement over the last several weeks.  I'm glad WFAA at least ran a 1 minute story on this last night but the local media needs to do a much better job of recognizing this problem and holding city and county officials accountable.

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Posted
1 minute ago, Js1 said:

SHUT

THE

FUCK

UP

Your stupid schtick is ruining this thread. 

I'm discussing information about the subject that has us all here on this thread. It's easy to put someone on ignore. You can do that and stop wailing about every post I make.

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Posted
1 minute ago, closetojumping said:

Yes, that's what happened. It's in the thread. You'll lawyer it up and go full pedant at some point to attempt to prove otherwise, but you declaratively panicporned the thread and weren't even close to reality. It's good comedy during a shitty time, in any event, so thanks for that.

You're funny. 

Posted
3 minutes ago, heso said:

Even with the revised IHME model, to meet their new peak of 3100 deaths per day next week, we’re underneath their projection 3 days in a row now. Unless we start hitting well into the 2000’s soon they will have to revise their total deaths down again. 

Yeah, when you start going state by state with that one, they're not even vaguely close with a bunch of them. It's interesting mental candy nonetheless.

Posted
8 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

It feels like @closetojumping has a large business whiteboard that he’s repurposed into poster tracking so that he quickly can refer to who predicted what and when. 
 

Stonehouse%20Signs%20Custom%20Sales%20Tr

Totally not psychotic at all. No sir.

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Posted
1 minute ago, G650 said:

Totally not psychotic at all. No sir.

Except his white board has made up numbers and he can’t provide proof you said otherwise 

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Posted

Not even noon EST and the US already has 910 reported dead.  Sad.

The UK is getting crushed.  Their cfr is over 10% now.  Spain has dropped below the 10% cfr rate at the moment.

Posted
4 minutes ago, GopherRock said:

As long as we're in the discussion of milk:

https://www.wsaw.com/content/news/Wis-dairy-cooperative-encourages-dairy-farmers-to-quit-industry-569374571.html

Ellsworth Creamery is getting their ass kicked due to the crash in demand for butter, cheese, and solid dairy. 

that's surprising to hear.  whole foods can barely keep butter stocked.  and the cheese selection has been sparser than normal. 

 

also never knew milk could be this divisive. 

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Posted
3 minutes ago, gsoda3 said:

also never knew milk could be this divisive. 

Wake me up when we started talking about organic milk. I can’t believe people still regular milk 

Posted
32 minutes ago, heso said:

Even with the revised IHME model, to meet their new peak of 3100 deaths per day next week, we’re underneath their projection 3 days in a row now. Unless we start hitting well into the 2000’s soon they will have to revise their total deaths down again. 

winning!

I think CDC predicted a few days ago the peak would be 2100 or so. 

Posted
1 minute ago, dcar00 said:

winning!

I think CDC predicted a few days ago the peak would be 2100 or so. 

I’m just hopeful at this point that people don’t abandon the safeguards as soon as the curve starts to dip and fire it back up again. 

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Posted
10 minutes ago, VABuckeye said:

Not even noon EST and the US already has 910 reported dead.  Sad.

The UK is getting crushed.  Their cfr is over 10% now.  Spain has dropped below the 10% cfr rate at the moment.

Sweden's strategy of not closing seems to be backfiring too. 114 fatalities today, up from 76 yesterday. Notably, Sweden only has a population of 10 million, so 114 fatalities for them is the same per capita as Italy hitting ~700. 

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Posted
1 minute ago, dcar00 said:

this thing may end up being under the high side estimate of the worst flu season on record 97K 

Yeah, because we shut down massive parts of our economy. 

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Posted

Do I have to go back and read several pages to figure out why everyone's arguing about milk?  

Yesterday was officially "good news from reading data one way" day.  Today looks like "bad news from reading data another way" day.

Posted
1 hour ago, CooterBrown said:

A study by the University of Göttingen suggests that only 6% of all infections have been discovered worldwide. In the US that number is only 1.6%.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/release...0406125507.htm

I am in agreement with their number of 10M+ a week ago(closer to 15M at this point and will continue to move upward until we get to about 100M by next year) have been infected



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