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Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

InkaUtexas

By InkaUtexas
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InkaUtexas

InkaUtexas 25912

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7 minutes ago, MC Fresh Breath said:

I think Frenchie is calling us fat.

 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-france-confinement/obesity-is-major-covid-19-risk-factor-says-french-chief-epidemiologist-idUSKBN21Q0S7

 

Fuck the French. We would be fine if we just ate Freedom Fries vs. French Fries. Oh wait, Lafayette and all that. Dammit... 

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Uncle Boobs
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Against my better judgment and several beers deep, I have taken you up on this, potentially ending my streak of totally worthless posts. I have done 3 and 7 day averages only on the Worldometer data. 

Brisketexan
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Daughter’s home. A little PTSD, we’re picking up Whataburger to help.

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NeverMarryAStripper

NeverMarryAStripper 21903

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12 minutes ago, MC Fresh Breath said:

I think Frenchie is calling us fat.

 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-france-confinement/obesity-is-major-covid-19-risk-factor-says-french-chief-epidemiologist-idUSKBN21Q0S7

 

I guess we'll be too fat to save their asses the next time they're invaded

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JBJ

JBJ 3654

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Gotta the new model to the point where the baseline is complete.  Issues with modelling the deaths seems to be gone or at least much improved.  I'll know if it gets the reduction portion correct when I get a tracking version and the Goal Scenario completed.  That's where the rubber will meet the pavement - it might need a little more tuning, but I'm optimistic.

ujykVPY6WvGfP0oxCEiSOYy51SGeJNdh2aMtfk6q

It's useless for predicting right now because we are on a different trajectory but wanted to share and update thus far.

Large graph:  We are still beating my (old) Goal Scenario, and close to flat-lining, which I didn't think was possible.  Deaths are following close to how they should be - at least to the naked eye and an old model.

Lower-left:  The way I'm doing transmission and infection is now completely different, but I'm going to keep showing the disease growth an a similar way - this way is being calculated only slightly different than before (blue lines).  The goal is 0.10 and the 10-day trend is currently 0.12.  All trends are stating to scrunch up and it looks like we will land right in that area around the weekend.  IFR (red) is shown for the portion that the baseline should be fairly accurate, but a lot of assumptions go into this value (1.18%), so it's very much an educated guess at this point.  The likely range is 0.5% ~ 2.5%.  But don't even quote that because like I said, this might need to be re-tuned.

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South Austin

South Austin 52480

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9 minutes ago, Sbbruin said:

First, fuck the French.  

Second, he's right.  Y'all are a bunch of fatasses.

He is right.  We are a fatass country.  Not me, of course.  I'm looking at you.

And I love a good duck confit. 

But fuck you, Jean-Francois.  You can't talk to Americans like that.  Only we can talk to Americans like that!

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KYHorn

KYHorn 17044

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1 minute ago, dcar00 said:

thats why we design better planes, tanks, bombs and boats because these fat-asses are, inevitably, going have to save their skinny frog ass again....

Right. You don't see the Japanese making fun of Fat Man do you?

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InkaUtexas

InkaUtexas 25912

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1 minute ago, dcar00 said:

thats why we design better planes, tanks, bombs and boats because these fat-asses are, inevitably, going have to save their skinny frog ass again....

So there is a story in US History. It is about a place called Yorktown. There was a dude, French, and he kind of kicked ass. rochambeau.

 

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dcar00

dcar00 14181

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Just now, InkaUtexas said:

So there is a story in US History. It is about a place called Yorktown. There was a dude, French, and he kind of kicked ass. rochambeau.

 

yeah I know. Lafayette was a badass but it wasn't the French govt.  In fact they didn't want him to go partly because the British were threatening them.  He thought the cause was noble.

 I'll give them the "French Rambeaux" but as a country pffft...

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G650

G650 14253

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13 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

So there is a story in US History. It is about a place called Yorktown. There was a dude, French, and he kind of kicked ass. rochambeau.

 

I am in York County almost every day, and pass by Rochambeau Dr. heading into WIlliamsburg. I never once fail to think of Cartman and laugh.

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Jiggy-Z

Jiggy-Z 3432

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1 hour ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

So flatten curve->gradual open up/herd immunity/lock down on long term, assisted living housing, hospitals etc(require immediate test results for visitors)->????-> vaccine (profit)

One thing I have not heard from anyone at a state or national level on the  mitigation front is reduction of co morbidity factors.  Since it looks like we will have many months at this, there are a lot of people that can lose weight, drop blood pressure through good habits and less al-kee-hol, improve lung strength, reduce stress etc.  Many cases of type II diabetes can also be lessened if not actually be cured with the right combination of diet and exercise.

Of course this is going to have to come from a lifer, no politician (no cr) would dare even suggest this kiss of death.

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MC Fresh Breath

MC Fresh Breath 4074

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8 minutes ago, BurntEyes said:

Back in my late 20s there was a fairly attractive french woman who was all over me despite many other guys pursuing her more than me in my "general social circle". We had sex, and after she made it perfectly clear she wanted to get married so she could stay and nationalise as a US citizen.

I told her I wasn't getting married any time soon to her or anyone.

We kept having sex and she ended up marrying a guy in my general social circle.

I was cool with it and so was she.

It worked out well for both of us. We both smoked and neither were fat.

Not sure how this applies to the topic, but wanted to share anyway.

tldr:  "dont' care, banged a frenchie"

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InkaUtexas

InkaUtexas 25912

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18 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

yeah I know. Lafayette was a badass but it wasn't the French govt.  In fact they didn't want him to go partly because the British were threatening them.  He thought the cause was noble.

 I'll give them the "French Rambeaux" but as a country pffft...

Yes, but their fucking fleet at the mouth of the Chesapeake was very real. And funny man, they are the last country active with us in Afghanistan, holding the front in the Sahel, and shit, they have the legion. 

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closetojumping

closetojumping 62630

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1 hour ago, JBJ said:

Gotta the new model to the point where the baseline is complete.  Issues with modelling the deaths seems to be gone or at least much improved.  I'll know if it gets the reduction portion correct when I get a tracking version and the Goal Scenario completed.  That's where the rubber will meet the pavement - it might need a little more tuning, but I'm optimistic.

ujykVPY6WvGfP0oxCEiSOYy51SGeJNdh2aMtfk6q

It's useless for predicting right now because we are on a different trajectory but wanted to share and update thus far.

Large graph:  We are still beating my (old) Goal Scenario, and close to flat-lining, which I didn't think was possible.  Deaths are following close to how they should be - at least to the naked eye and an old model.

Lower-left:  The way I'm doing transmission and infection is now completely different, but I'm going to keep showing the disease growth an a similar way - this way is being calculated only slightly different than before (blue lines).  The goal is 0.10 and the 10-day trend is currently 0.12.  All trends are stating to scrunch up and it looks like we will land right in that area around the weekend.  IFR (red) is shown for the portion that the baseline should be fairly accurate, but a lot of assumptions go into this value (1.18%), so it's very much an educated guess at this point.  The likely range is 0.5% ~ 2.5%.  But don't even quote that because like I said, this might need to be re-tuned.

I've enjoyed reading your updates and model work over time on this thread. Please keep it up, they're fun.

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 105100

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23 minutes ago, MC Fresh Breath said:

tldr:  "dont' care, banged a frenchie"

Yeah....one of my absolute greatest weaknesses is French women.  Seriously, all of them.  The attitude, the accent.  It kills me.  I will die with one of my greatest regrets being that I never even dated one.  Sigh.

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kevwun

kevwun 15776

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18 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Yes, but their fucking fleet at the mouth of the Chesapeake was very real. And funny man, they are the last country active with us in Afghanistan, holding the front in the Sahel, and shit, they have the legion. 

Yep, Cornwallis would have never been trapped at Yorktown if the the French fleet wasn't there to prevent his escape by sea.

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BurntOrange&White

BurntOrange&White 39931

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It's encouraging to see the numbers in Texas remain relatively low.  It's discouraging to think we might be 2 weeks from peak demand on hospital resources.

I swear, it feels like I have to have "the talk" with my teenagers every other day.  No, you're not going anywhere to meet your buddies, even on your bike, even if you don't go in any stores or restaurants (which are mostly closed anyway).  And yes, I'm sorry your senior year kinda sucks at the end.  You're alive.

Aren’t we near the bottom for test done considering our large population?

 

 

Also what if he wants to go see a girl who said her parents aren’t home?

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Loco

Loco 3752

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25 minutes ago, NeverMarryAStripper said:

Yeah, the FOREIGN legion.  Less than a quarter Frenchies.

It you are wounded in the legion you are given French citizenship.  Otherwise after 3 years of service you can become a French Citizen.  Pretty sure you can be a wanted criminal in your home country and join the legion.  0 fucks given.

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Since its founding in 1831, the Legion has become the one place of escape for those with haunted pasts. Men with criminal records, shady business dealings, or deserters from their home country’s armies were accepted into the ranks, with no questions asked. Stripped of their old identity and given a new one, the new legionnaires are able to begin their new life with the slate wiped clean.
The legion will still accept deserters and other minor miscreants, but it’s not as easy as it once was. New recruits are given a battery of physical, intelligence, and psychological tests before they even get any kind of training. Later on in the process, recruits are screened for “motivation” in order to weed out those who don’t have the drive to make it in the ranks.

They are also like the Dirty Dozen with crepes and ennui

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TxEx84

TxEx84 398

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12 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

My french is fucking terrible.  I visit Montreal, and I can do the "bonjour hi," and after that, I get stuck.

 "Voulez-vous coucher avec moir, ce soir" is all you really need to know.

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InkaUtexas

InkaUtexas 25912

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3 minutes ago, Loco said:

It you are wounded in the legion you are given French citizenship.  Otherwise after 3 years of service you can become a French Citizen.  Pretty sure you can be a wanted criminal in your home country and join the legion.  0 fucks given.

They are also like the Dirty Dozen with crepes and ennui

Worked with them in a few places. Meanest most fun MoFo's out there. And their regiment wine is pretty damn good. 

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Sbbruin

Sbbruin 21847

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21 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Yeah....one of my absolute greatest weaknesses is French women.  Seriously, all of them.  The attitude, the accent.  It kills me.  I will die with one of my greatest regrets being that I never even dated one.  Sigh.

Don't forget their big hairy bushes and armpits.  Ooo la la!

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The Royal We

The Royal We 3072

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2 hours ago, Bevo said:

Wait till they try to get the insurance company to pay.

Naw man, this was underwritten in the Contingency Market at Lloyd's.  I bet they already have a check in hand.

They aren't the cheapest, but if you have a valid claim then they are going to pay and they are going to pay quickly.  The numbers that I heard from the Lloyd's brokers that I work with is that Wimbledon starting buying this cover in 2003 after SARS and has paid around 1.2mm per year for it.

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landman

landman 559

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2 hours ago, mchookem said:

this all makes my thoughts take a very dark turn. as in... if things continue as is 'indefinitely', if you're locked in your house, you can't see friends, family, travel, entertainment, go to the beach or a lake or a park, eventually even online and broadcast entertainment will be exhausted, you can only rewatch the Sopranos so many times....like, eventually...what's the point? 

i know that's extreme. but it's not beyond the realm of possibility. 

i need to get out of my own head 😐

So, if you and yours are in the house for two weeks, and your friends are in their house for two weeks (and assuming everyone is doing this) why can't you and your friends get together after the end of two weeks?  Again, everyone is staying in and no possible exposure during the two weeks.

Conversely, having a conversation in the front yard, with everyone maintaining distance, can happen now.

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closetojumping

closetojumping 62630

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So, this will probably sound like a weird scenario, but does anyone have anything new around the efficacy and risks for the use of hydroxychloroquine? A business that SydneyCarton and I are in now has access to delivering the drug via IV.

Is there any proof that it has value as a prophylactic, like Tamiflu for flus? Everytime one of my kids or wife comes down with the flu, and inevitably because of schedules, one usually does each year due to not having the shot like the rest of them, I just text my brother and he gets me a Tamiflu prescription. I then start taking that immediately and never get the flu. There was talk early on that this could work in this way, but I haven't seen anything positive lately. 

I'm not an idiot, contrary to what some here may believe, and won't be willy nilly taking it. I'm just curious if there's new data on it, or if a doctor wants to beg us civilians off of it. I'll also be asking my brother and a couple of business partners/friends that are MDs about it as well. I'm just kind of surprised by the sudden availability. I know doctors had been taking it as a prophylactic around this time a month ago, but I'm not sure how that worked out, either.

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Loco

Loco 3752

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3 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Worked with them in a few places. Meanest most fun MoFo's out there. And their regiment wine is pretty damn good. 

That's very consistent with what I have heard from people who are hard to impress.

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gmr548

gmr548 16576

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It seems that there's pretty widespread confidence that a vaccine will be developed and should work.  The  question is all in 1) the timing, and 2) how many doses can be produced quickly.

In a dream world, something available sometime this fall would be absolutely fantastic.  But the consensus seems to be pointing to -- at best -- early next year.  I sure hope that's a conservative consensus.  But I sure as hell don't know.

 

This fall just isn't happening. You have companies, governments, universities, health systems, etc. all partnering up, and even their PR people are saying 12-18 months. Even that would be a crazy fastb timeline in terms of vaccine development. And then there's the logistics. Maybe we can save football season in 2021.

 

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