Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

[WBT 20,572]

Those JPM numbers have to be quarter over previous quarter and not quarter over same quarter previous year, right?  So from 4Q19 baseline, they're predicting 0.9x in 1Q20, 0.54x in 2Q20 (yikes), and 0.66x in 3Q20.  The 23% gain in 3Q would be coming from such a low low that it still wouldn't be great.

[Wulaw Horn 19,070]

55 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

 

JP Morgan has been wrong the whole way and they will continue to be. They are built to get normal times mostly correct and fundamentally incapable of understanding times like these. Fuck those idiots. LOL if you look back at their shit in 2007-early 2009.

They previously whiffed on all parts in their late March outlook. hi  They’re whiffing now on the bounce back. It isn’t as if they’re not incented to do so, which makes it worse. People thinking we’re all going to be rolling by Christmas are as full of shit as the people forecasting millions of deaths a month ago. 

Fuck bankers and their political insulation. No one makes more from being less intelligent and competent than corporate bankers. 

What’s your forecast by quarter if you had to pull out your crystal ball?  How long until we get back to economically where we were in 4th quarter of 2019?

I am of 2 minds:

1) Great Depression or something approaching that if we can’t, almost immediately, get unemployment down into single digits whenever we flip the switch to jump start the economy (and dead God that needs to happen soon)

2) we come out of this thing with single digit unemployment, a well designed stimulus bill and pump enough money to stave off deflation, and we settle into something not much worse than a normal and cyclical recession that’s relatively short lived. 

Gun to my head I’d bet on depression, but the American consumers ability to shrug off all doubt, uncertainty, common sense and restraint and spend/spend/spend is a fearsome and wonderful thing and exactly what we need to keep us out of a depression imo. 

[Wulaw Horn 19,070]

5 minutes ago, WBT said:

Those JPM numbers have to be quarter over previous quarter and not quarter over same quarter previous year, right?  So from 4Q19 baseline, they're predicting 0.9x in 1Q20, 0.54x in 2Q20 (yikes), and 0.66x in 3Q20.  The 23% gain in 3Q would be coming from such a low low that it still wouldn't be great.

Correct. Or put another way- if we go -10 the. -40 we’d need to go +100 to get us back to level. 5% 4th quarter gross would be awful in that context. 

[Stunns38 3,460]

 

[Sbbruin 21,853]

3 hours ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

Dogs>Cats.

I would never argue that.  My dog is WAY above those cats.  But they are cool cats.

[fattyflattie 4,639]

5 hours ago, Treefidy said:

I've always been a sucker for redheads, married to one.  Bat they are bat shit fucking crazy, like not normal women fucking crazy. 

Nothing new to anyone here, but I can also attest. I feel it hardens you, like war.  Being at home for nearly 30 days straight with one has been...an adventure. 

[Fred Willard 115]

Well fuck me for interrupting a circle jerk. A physician that I respect has taken the stance that we update the flu vaccine annually. Flu is over around April and no problem getting the virus updated by October for vaccination. But, surly seems to think it’s over a year before football, tits, or a vaccine?

[SHOOTER12 8,810]

5 hours ago, Enchubben said:

 

This thread has really taken a turn for the better with all this redhead talk.  There are rules, however.....

The rules in this case should be dismissed. Photos of this overly seductive auburn haired breed would only serve to lead the innocent and unindocrtrinated down the path of doom and destruction known as as red puss doom.

[mycox 582]

Well fuck me. All this time I thought the COVID-19 virus wasn't the flu. Your respected physician is a genius!

Edited April 10, 2020 by mycox

[SydneyCarton 48,106]

Well this seems like good news, and I don’t remember it being posted yet.

https://www.jpost.com/HEALTH-SCIENCE/Israeli-COVID-19-treatment-shows-100-percent-survival-rate-preliminary-data-624058
 

 

[ChiTownDoc 21,154]

2 hours ago, Fred Willard said:

Well fuck me for interrupting a circle jerk. A physician that I respect has taken the stance that we update the flu vaccine annually. Flu is over around April and no problem getting the virus updated by October for vaccination. But, surly seems to think it’s over a year before football, tits, or a vaccine?

Wtf does updating a vaccine we already have that’s working for the flu have to do with developing a new vaccine for novel C-19?

No respectable physician is saying we will have a vaccine this year.  Maybe they’re saying it’s a low possibility...maybe.  I’d love to see someone put money on it at even odds.  

Edited April 10, 2020 by ChiTownDoc

[SydneyCarton 48,106]

11 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Wtf does updating a vaccine we already have that’s working for the flu have to do with developing a new vaccine for novel C-19?

No respectable physician is saying we will have a vaccine this year.  Maybe they’re saying it’s a low possibility...maybe.  I’d love to see someone put money on it at even odds.  

I mean, I’d take uneven odds. 

[ChiTownDoc 21,154]

8 hours ago, closetojumping said:

 

JP Morgan has been wrong the whole way and they will continue to be. They are built to get normal times mostly correct and fundamentally incapable of understanding times like these. Fuck those idiots. LOL if you look back at their shit in 2007-early 2009.

They previously whiffed on all parts in their late March outlook. hi  They’re whiffing now on the bounce back. It isn’t as if they’re not incented to do so, which makes it worse. People thinking we’re all going to be rolling by Christmas are as full of shit as the people forecasting millions of deaths a month ago. 

Fuck bankers and their political insulation. No one makes more from being less intelligent and competent than corporate bankers. 

Lol.  Those are quarter over quarter numbers.  Sure we all agree, fuck the banks, but you’re acting like that’s some rosy outlook.  It’s ass my dude.  

[BradInATX 9,208]

4 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Lol.  Those are quarter over quarter numbers.  Sure we all agree, fuck the banks, but you’re acting like that’s some rosy outlook.  It’s ass my dude.  

 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13,512]

3 hours ago, Fred Willard said:

Well fuck me for interrupting a circle jerk. A physician that I respect has taken the stance that we update the flu vaccine annually. Flu is over around April and no problem getting the virus updated by October for vaccination. But, surly seems to think it’s over a year before football, tits, or a vaccine?

You should respect him less.  2 minutes of a google search taught me more about flu vaccines than he knows.  Flu experts are working a year before to estimate the right formulation of next years flu vaccine and finalize it in February.  And all they are doing is changing the flu strains to be included, they’re not creating a brand new vaccine from scratch.

i believe for coronavirus this would be a brand new vaccine that we’ve never created and definitely haven’t given to millions of people. It takes time to understand its effectiveness and whether it creates other problems.

In recap, your doctor friend doesn’t know what he’s talking about. 

[SydneyCarton 48,106]

Myron Rolle, former FSU safety, RHODES Scholar, and now a senior resident at Harvard medical school and a hospital in Boston was just on CNN. Dude is now on the front lines of the covid front at his hospital. Eventually will be a neurosurgeon. Dude is a fucking stud. Has worked 9 straight days and has a 24 hour shift tomorrow. Says he is exactly where he is supposed to be trying to fight this thing.  
 

more like him please. 

[NorthLoop 14,205]

1 minute ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

 

In recap, you don't have a doctor friend and you're making shit up. 

fify

[gmr548 16,580]

Well fuck me for interrupting a circle jerk. A physician that I respect has taken the stance that we update the flu vaccine annually. Flu is over around April and no problem getting the virus updated by October for vaccination. But, surly seems to think it’s over a year before football, tits, or a vaccine?

Lol come on man.

[SydneyCarton 48,106]

2 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

Lol come on man.

Either an unfunny troll or literally his avatar. 

[Loco 3,752]

[utee94 15,823]

8 hours ago, WBT said:

Those JPM numbers have to be quarter over previous quarter and not quarter over same quarter previous year, right?  So from 4Q19 baseline, they're predicting 0.9x in 1Q20, 0.54x in 2Q20 (yikes), and 0.66x in 3Q20.  The 23% gain in 3Q would be coming from such a low low that it still wouldn't be great.

Yup. QoQ numbers, and seasonally adjusted.  The take-down to -40% in Q2,  from their previous estimate of -25%, is shockingly bad.  Even the -25% would be devastating.  I don't think we've seen a QoQ drop of more than 6% or so in the past 20 years, and l'm not sure we've ever seen one of 25% or more, even in the Great Depression.  

And from what I'm seeing, these aren't crazily off.  April is terrible. May is likely to be much, much worse, as more businesses crater.  But I do think the rather mild recovery they're forecasting for Q3 and Q4 will be a bit stronger.

 

10 hours ago, Message Board User said:

 

 

Edited April 10, 2020 by utee94

[Cheeseweasel 26,438]

8 hours ago, Uncle Boobs said:

I dont know any french but I do know a little german.

[Anastasis 23,469]

8 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

(and dead God that needs to happen soon)

Happy Good Friday!

[Wulaw Horn 19,070]

1 minute ago, Anastasis said:

Happy Good Friday!

Yessir. 

[BradInATX 9,208]

1 hour ago, BradInATX said:

 

 

I quoted the wrong post here. Meant to quote the Alex Jones guy who made the weird comment about the death toll charts being meant to keep people scared and inside. Doesn't make any sense when I had @ChiTownDoc's post quoted instead of the right one.

Eh.

Edited April 10, 2020 by BradInATX

[Onboard 2.0 9,083]

At least around here the real estate market is till chugging along pretty strongly even in masks and rubber gloves, construction is still going on full speed where it can. Only one client I have of about 10-12 current projects has stopped a project, and said they're waiting till this all settles out to resume their project.

Her husband is a heart surgeon, and she has a liver issue. She's bunkering, and he's working stoopid hours. I actually picked up a commission on a pretty good sized addition yesterday.

Unless this thing stretches out in to Fall, I think people are gonna be eager to get out, go to restaurants, and resume their lives.  I think you're gonna see deals everywhere to lure people out into public again, which won't be hard. 

How much of this is paper loss (which can, and will bounce back) as opposed to real loss ?

[utee94 15,823]

Alex Jones is posting on the surl?  

[Viper 12,109]

3 hours ago, SydneyCarton said:

Well this seems like good news, and I don’t remember it being posted yet.

https://www.jpost.com/HEALTH-SCIENCE/Israeli-COVID-19-treatment-shows-100-percent-survival-rate-preliminary-data-624058
 

 

so what you're saying is...

[MonkeyDoughnut 10,236]

10 hours ago, Message Board User said:

Cruises seem like it would be shitty experience in the best of times.  But it's almost unfathomable that cruises are still sailing in the midst of Covid.

 

Though, data does suggest its safer on a cruise ship then in New York, no?

[Onboard 2.0 9,083]

36 minutes ago, MonkeyDoughnut said:

Though, data does suggest its safer on a cruise ship then in New York, no?

That factoid stands up most of the time...........

 

 

 

 

EDIT :  Oy Vey !!

Edited April 10, 2020 by Onboard 2.0

[utee94 15,823]

9 minutes ago, Onboard 2.0 said:

At least around here the real estate market is till chugging along pretty strongly even in masks and rubber gloves, construction is still going on full speed where it can. Only one client I have of about 10-12 current projects has stopped a project, and said they're waiting till this all settles out to resume their project.

Her husband is a heart surgeon, and she has a liver issue. She's bunkering, and he's working stoopid hours. I actually picked up a commission on a pretty good sized addition yesterday.

Unless this thing stretches out in to Fall, I think people are gonna be eager to get out, go to restaurants, and resume their lives.  I think you're gonna see deals everywhere to lure people out into public again, which won't be hard. 

How much of this is paper loss (which can, and will bounce back) as opposed to real loss ?

The restaurant, hospitality, and entertainment industries are going to be decimated.  They basically already are.  Restaurants can't survive on take-out, if they could, that would already have been the standard business model.  Those are all real jobs lost, a huge chunk of them won't be returning even if we lifted restrictions today.

So I think the "real" loss is going to be huge.  Not recoverable in the next 9 months, for sure.  But in 18 months?  Yeah, probably.

But the real problem we're facing is not damage to "The Economy."  The Economy isn't a real thing, I'm not sure why people insist on talking about it in the abstract.  The real problem is the massive job loss, which leads directly to hunger and starvation, and potentially to violence, as the hungry masses see others who still have jobs, going to grocery stores and buying food.  I'm really worried about those people.  @Brisketexan mentioned in the COVID Good Deeds threat that we need to be donating to food banks that are running critically low, and he's right.  Our friends and neighbors are already going hungry, and we need to do everything we can to help them.  

 

[SydneyCarton 48,106]

10 minutes ago, utee94 said:

Alex Jones is posting on the surl?  

He  posts here under a variety of handles. Junior Miller, Pacman, and apparently Fred Willard.

[BurntOrange&White 39,933]

I asked for some honest thoughts/news around a subject, and I got some. I didn't need or merit a presumptive finger wag assuming I'm going to be doing some stupid cowboy shit with a business and, heaven forbid, making money. I didn't indicate doing something from a business use standpoint, nor is there a plan or consideration in that regard. 

Oh stfu. You do the exact same to people.

[utee94 15,823]

3 minutes ago, BurntEyes said:

Quick rant.. all the fucktards that are having gatherings outdoors at state parks and outdoor recreation areas, and therefore getting them shut down can go fuck themselves with a rusty pitch fork.

Word.

 

[BurntOrange&White 39,933]

San Antonio Numbers

Cases: 615(+61 from 554)
Deaths: 22(+2)

[WBT 20,572]

Have there been a lot of gatherings?  I thought I heard a lot of these closings were preemptive for the holiday weekend and they're planning to reopen after that.

[Cheeseweasel 26,438]

8 minutes ago, BurntEyes said:

Quick rant.. all the fucktards that are having gatherings outdoors at state parks and outdoor recreation areas, and therefore getting them shut down can go fuck themselves with a rusty pitch fork.

Selfish people are always going to fuck it up for the rest of us. 

This Is The Way.

[Bevo 13,577]

4 hours ago, SydneyCarton said:

Well this seems like good news, and I don’t remember it being posted yet.

https://www.jpost.com/HEALTH-SCIENCE/Israeli-COVID-19-treatment-shows-100-percent-survival-rate-preliminary-data-624058
 

 

Not sure I should trust Yaky Yanay.

[utee94 15,823]

2 minutes ago, WBT said:

Have there been a lot of gatherings?  I thought I heard a lot of these closings were preemptive for the holiday weekend and they're planning to reopen after that.

In Austin I believe that's true, it's preemptive and they'll reopen after the weekend. I did see some pictures of large groups gathering at Barton Springs but that's been a couple of weeks, and I don't know if that type of thing is still happening.

But in other municipalities and states, parks and public spaces have been completely and permanently shut down, not just for this weekend.  In Cedar Park that order went out several weeks ago, despite the fact that in the multiple parks I run past daily, I never once saw anyone gathering at all.  

[SHOOTER12 8,810]

25 minutes ago, BurntEyes said:

Quick rant.. all the fucktards that are having gatherings outdoors at state parks and outdoor recreation areas, and therefore getting them shut down can go fuck themselves with a rusty pitch fork.

 

21 minutes ago, utee94 said:

Word.

 

Palabra chingada

[GopherRock 1,765]

14 minutes ago, WBT said:

Have there been a lot of gatherings?  I thought I heard a lot of these closings were preemptive for the holiday weekend and they're planning to reopen after that.

There were enough gatherings (as well as vandalism) in Wisconsin to force the DNR to outright close most of their state parks.

[South Austin 52,509]

1 hour ago, SydneyCarton said:

Myron Rolle, former FSU safety, RHODES Scholar, and now a senior resident at Harvard medical school and a hospital in Boston was just on CNN. Dude is now on the front lines of the covid front at his hospital. Eventually will be a neurosurgeon. Dude is a fucking stud. Has worked 9 straight days and has a 24 hour shift tomorrow. Says he is exactly where he is supposed to be trying to fight this thing.  
 

more like him please. 

Not sure there's been a college football player outside of Longhorn Nation I've admired and respected more than him. 

[SHOOTER12 8,810]

19 minutes ago, WBT said:

Have there been a lot of gatherings?  I thought I heard a lot of these closings were preemptive for the holiday weekend and they're planning to reopen after that.

You can bet your ass that there will be tons of "good people' pushing the envelope this weekend, because after all it's Easter... freaking idiots, should be allowed to shoot on sight.

[Brisketexan 105,142]

10 hours ago, BurntEyes said:

You know, after you wrote this it brought back another memory that had been buried by time and a head injury.

There is a back story prior to my encounter with the French woman I mentioned above.

When I lived at Taos Coop there was a theatrical writing PHD who was a bit of a mentor to me in several way. One of them was his introducing me to the show French in Action.

I believe it was shot in the 70s/80s. My mentor did not really care much at all about learning French, rather he watched the show for the female lead, Valérie Allain.

For whatever reason your post jogged that memory. That combined with a very mutual sex only relationship with the aforementioned French woman well.. good memories indeed. Oh... Pics. Well I don't have one of the woman I slept with, but here is Valérie Allain, the reason I learned French, from way back then...

She's not a bad-looking 56, either.

Man....my wife needs to speak more french at home.

[stork642 4,498]

4 hours ago, SydneyCarton said:

Well this seems like good news, and I don’t remember it being posted yet.

https://www.jpost.com/HEALTH-SCIENCE/Israeli-COVID-19-treatment-shows-100-percent-survival-rate-preliminary-data-624058
 

 

Well this is a doomsday thread so these types of posts are restricted.  Moose out front should have told ya.  

[Liquor and Poker 3,659]

4 hours ago, SydneyCarton said:

Well this seems like good news, and I don’t remember it being posted yet.

https://www.jpost.com/HEALTH-SCIENCE/Israeli-COVID-19-treatment-shows-100-percent-survival-rate-preliminary-data-624058
 

 

Don’t get me wrong, I hope desperately that every word is true, but that’s a pretty puffy-sounding release.  “4 of the 6 are even better than before!”   “This treatment also cures 5 other conditions!”

 

[Onboard 2.0 9,083]

1 minute ago, stork642 said:

Well this is a doomsday thread so these types of posts are restricted.  Moose out front should have told ya.  

Exactly... who can fapp to that ??

[Telegraph_it 3,357]

5 minutes ago, SHOOTER12 said:

You can bet your ass that there will be tons of "good people' pushing the envelope this weekend, because after all it's Easter... freaking idiots, should be allowed to shoot on sight.

What a stupid fucking post. 

[achooloco 1,072]

28 minutes ago, WBT said:

Have there been a lot of gatherings?  I thought I heard a lot of these closings were preemptive for the holiday weekend and they're planning to reopen after that.

My friends who work in Austin Park and Rec say there have been a noticeable amount this week.

[Armybrat 40,847]

5 hours ago, SHOOTER12 said:

The rules in this case should be dismissed. Photos of this overly seductive auburn haired breed would only serve to lead the innocent and unindocrtrinated down the path of doom and destruction known as as red puss doom.

Annette O’Toole was something a few years back.