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Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

InkaUtexas

By InkaUtexas
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Bevo

Bevo 13576

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8 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Slightly before and then overlapping. Except unlike CTJ, I'm not a hyperbolic faget. I've never owned an Acura, or a two seat vehicle. Meanwhile, he drove that Intrepid with bald tires for a long ass time. 

This seems like the start of a pussycat fight. Who drove a shittier car, Sydney with the purple sparkly girl car or CTJ with the beat up, rusty Dodge Intrepid?

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Uncle Boobs
Uncle Boobs

Against my better judgment and several beers deep, I have taken you up on this, potentially ending my streak of totally worthless posts. I have done 3 and 7 day averages only on the Worldometer data. 

Brisketexan
Brisketexan

Daughter’s home. A little PTSD, we’re picking up Whataburger to help.

Coelenterate Fuccboi
Coelenterate Fuccboi

Just try and imagine GreenspointTexas being the person to intubate you as you fight for your life against COVID-19. You’re laying there gasping for air while he chastises you for all the things you li

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Dahobbs

Dahobbs 17534

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Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, pacman said:

It costs more in dollars and time, I would assume. The sheer volume, as well, may not make it feasible.

I'm pretty sure the Nazi's had this down. We obviously just aren't dedicated enough. <sarcasm>

But really, I'm pretty sure this is right. It's much easier and cheaper to mass bury bodies than cremate them. Cremation may be cheaper than typical burial funeral services, but mass graves aren't the typical service. Also, I don't think we have large enough ovens for the amount of bodies. 

 

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gmr548

gmr548 16576

Posted
Posted
I'm pretty sure the Nazi's had this down. We obviously just aren't dedicated enough.
But really, I'm pretty sure this is right. Its much easier and cheaper to mass bury bodies than cremate them. Cremation may be cheaper than typical burial funeral services, but mass graves aren't the typical service. Also, I don't think we have large enough ovens for the amount of bodies. 
 

Fuck this timeline
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tx 3 putt

tx 3 putt 76906

Posted
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2 hours ago, WBT said:

Have there been a lot of gatherings?  I thought I heard a lot of these closings were preemptive for the holiday weekend and they're planning to reopen after that.

The beaches around Corpus Christi have been packed, at times 

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 105095

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22 minutes ago, Hate said:

Why in the hell are they not cremating the bodies?  That makes no sense at all.

They're trying to allow for people to claim an actual body.  They just can't keep storing them -- they're out of refrigerated storage.  Seriously, they are using a shitload of refrigerated trucks, but even those are overflowing.  So, if you want to have a body for people to claim, but you don't have enough refrigerated storage....you bury them.  In a fucking trench.  In America.  In 2020.

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Loco

Loco 3752

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22 minutes ago, Hate said:

Why in the hell are they not cremating the bodies?  That makes no sense at all.

I don't know for sure, but I imagine some folks religious beliefs would prohibit that.  I have seen some articles that indicated the funeral home business was overwhelmed too.

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pacman

pacman 7355

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Florida State offensive lineman Andrew Boselli revealed Friday that he has recovered from the coronavirus.

In a first-person account on the Florida State football website, Boselli recounted how he initially dismissed any danger the coronavirus posed to himself, a healthy 22-year-old athlete. He figured only the elderly or those with underlying health problems were at risk

That changed around St. Patrick's Day when the coronavirus swept through his family in Jacksonville, Florida. His father, former NFL offensive lineman Tony Boselli, tested positive first. Then Andrew and his mother and brother all got it.

Andrew Boselli wrote that a day after he was tested for the virus on March 21, "I woke up feeling like I'd been hit by a bus." He had a fever that spiked to 103 degrees, felt shortness of breath and at one point "was glued to the couch with no energy, no appetite and nothing but fluids and over-the-counter medicines to help me feel better."

 

Though doctors considered his case "mild," Boselli wrote, "my experience was anything but mild."

The situation was far worse for his father, Tony, who got pneumonia and was admitted to the ICU. In an interview last week with the Florida Times-Union, Tony Boselli said, "The worst was my second day in ICU when they were upping my oxygen levels. That was probably the lowest, scariest moment. I had no family around me. I can't remember exactly what the doctor said, something about the machine needing to go to another level for more oxygen if that didn't work.

Andrew Boselli also addressed that fear.

"We couldn't be with him, couldn't see his face and couldn't hear his voice," he wrote. "... In the span of a week, I went from not really taking this virus seriously to realizing that I could lose my father."

The Boselli family has since recovered, and Tony is back home. Andrew decided to share his story to emphasize how seriously people should take the virus' threat.

"This whole journey has been a wake-up call for me," Andrew Boselli wrote. "We are all fighting against a serious illness that doesn't care who you are or where you're from, and one that can cause major problems no matter how old you are. Yes, social distancing is hard.

"And, for me, I know I'm counting down the days until I can be around my coaches and teammates again, especially after the way they supported me over the last few weeks. But the only way for that to happen is listen to the experts and follow their guidance. This is something that needs to be taken seriously. And if we all do our part, we can get through it."

Since this is a sport board, former NFL LT Tony Boselli and his family got it. This short story gives some contrast in the affects on son and father.

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closetojumping

closetojumping 62604

Posted
Posted
13 hours ago, Message Board User said:

 

 

3 hours ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Lol.  Those are quarter over quarter numbers.  Sure we all agree, fuck the banks, but you’re acting like that’s some rosy outlook.  It’s ass my dude.  

Q4/Q4% isn't quarter over quarter. Only being off from same period, year prior, by 6.9% looks like a rosy outlook. 2020 looks like is a lost year. We're all trying to predict a future after a global black swan with no precedent. Maybe the Q3/Q4 percentages are validated, but I don't see the YOY ratio for Q4 being close. I guess it starts with how far things go for Q2.

Major segments of the economy aren't just in a lull, they've disappeared, and some permanently:

-Sports is a top 10, maybe top 5, industry in the US. When does it return? Hint: probably not at all in 2020. Poof, gone. I'm not just talking large gatherings and the pro sports. Little League has been canceled. Pop Warner is in jeopardy. Most golf courses are closed. 

-Restaurants, hotels, casinos, tourist attractions (when does Carlsbad Caverns open back up to large groups of people crowding together in cold, damp, dark places?), tourist cities (Vegas and NYC going to be booming by Q4 ahead of a vaccine?) amusement parks, movies, filming tv and movies, airlines, rental cars - these things are all fragile shells of themselves or gone for the time being. There's probably 20-30 other types of businesses that can be flatly lumped into this. It all sucks, but I don't feel like it's hyperbole.

-Energy - right

-Car manufacturing and sales - not good, Bob. How about boats, hoes and planes? 

-Healthcare - you yourself have highlighted the mass peril and the absolute need for a bailout just to see it survive.

40% fall off from the prior quarter looks rosy, as insane as that is to type. Things hummed as normal in the US until basically the week of March 6, when SXSW was canceled that Friday. The dominos fell from that week forward. 40% worse for Q2 presumes that we're all back at it at some point in May, picking up where we left off. Q1 had the luxury of running as planned for 70% of the cycle. Q2 won't have that for a single day. 

None of this even considers all of the global dependencies tied to recovery, and other countries are going to have to swing back well too. We don't even know what kind of social and economic wounds this has uncovered and how they'll be repaired in other places, for better or worse.

We all know we won't be back to BAU by any time in May. How about mid-June? When we come back, is it really roaring back? Voids in all of those industries are appropriately filled throughout the 2nd half of the year and long term user behaviors haven't changed? I don't see any of that being the case, but I hope others are right.

 

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bluto

bluto 4916

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Posted
I still don't like the direction Minnesota's daily numbers are going. Third day in a row above 80 positive tests. 

I’ve pretty well started to ignore testing numbers. The only thing concrete to me is hospitalizations/icu’s/vents as even deaths are a shit show with misappropriation, home deaths, and nursing home deaths.

And even those ‘concrete’ numbers are really backward looking by a week at least.
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dcar00

dcar00 14181

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5 minutes ago, bluto said:


I’ve pretty well started to ignore testing numbers. The only thing concrete to me is hospitalizations/icu’s/vents as even deaths are a shit show with misappropriation, home deaths, and nursing home deaths.

And even those ‘concrete’ numbers are really backward looking by a week at least.

have you seen specific US numbers on hospitalizations, ICU, and vents?  I ask because I can't find anyone tracking those for all 50 states.

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Chooky

Chooky 13307

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Posted
1 hour ago, SydneyCarton said:

Fun fact, CloseToJumping's first real car purchase when I met him out of college was a Dodge Intrepid. I believe he drove that car for like 8 years without an air conditioner in Houston until he drove it into the wall on a flyover to collect on the $500 of insurance value. 

I can hear the collective clicking sounds of TexAgs googling the statute of limitations on that right now. 

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Bozo_Casanova

Bozo_Casanova 26444

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2 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

Would love to get your take on what you think realistic numbers are.

I think what will actually happen will be 1) less severe than that, and 2) plenty fucking awful anyway.

Here's the thing - JPMC has to put numbers out, but all these models are calibrated to a normal economic reality, which is very different from the new and unprecedented economic reality of right now.
Disclaimer: I'm going to boil a couple of extremely complex and not wholly uncontroversial ideas down to something very simple. It's my opinion we're talking about, so please don't substitute this for broad based conventional economic thinking, which is what the JPMC model is fairly representative of. 

JP Morgan is basically saying that the the economy had good fundamentals when we stopped it, and because of the stimulus there's all this aggregate demand out there waiting to go someplace. Therefore when we all pour out of our homes we'll roar right back. And maybe that's true. We stopped the music and everyone froze in place so when the music starts again we will all be in our places and ready to resume dancing. So that's a deep V depression, but we pull out quickly. 

But I'm not sure that's true on either side, this is why.

When we talk about "the economy" we're really talking about our progress and direction along two deeply connected but separate timelines that run in parallel. 

The first is economic time - that's people making things and doing things and working and generally it's the timeline that real economic productivity runs on. 

The second is financial time - that's the rate at which things are expected to be paid for. The rent, the mortgage, the groceries and the toilet paper and the food all run (at different speeds) on financial time.

So you can imagine, those things run together, but you can actually stop economic time and restart it. Financial time never stops. And despite being a productivity metric, GDP is actually measured on financial time, because those things are usually deeply linked. Even in a war, financial activity paces to economic time, as consumption and productivity shift to other areas and grow and shrink together. 

But this is not a normal reality. In this reality, for the first time ever, we've but the brakes on a whole sectors without stopping financial time. And we're kind of using stimulus to make up the difference, but nobody really knows how well that will work, because the kind of stimulus we are applying is stimulus that mostly actions on the economic timeline, not the financial timeline, which is where the delta is experienced. 

So lets say for grins that we are back in business in August or so. Most affluent people pick up spending where they left off. Did they spend that much less while economic time was stopped? How about the people in the middle? My guess is that even though they were unemployed they continued to spend because financial time never stops, and the essentials never stopped working because they couldn't afford to and weren't required to. 

So for me the bottom line is that we don't know. but I think that depending on how long this goes the less impacted parts of the economy are possibly more resilient than people think for all kinds of reasons, including the ability to work remotely. And as bad as income inequality and the gulf between the haves and have nots in our society has gotten, the result is an economic system where huge numbers of essential workers will continue to work no matter what, and the people at the top will work from home and get takeout and order things no matter what, and the bulk of this will be felt in service industry and retail employment that is somewhat on-demand in nature. That's horrible for the people in the middle but paints a somewhat less dire picture in terms of GDP decline, but also far less rosy in terms of recovery or at least the sustainability of recovery. Also, it should be mentioned that several things, especially new auto sales and other indicaters were already flashing red before this even started so we were probably heading into a cyclical recession anyway. 

All that is to say that I think we'll probably wind up closer to -30% GDP in 2Q, and closer to +15% for 3Q, and maybe 7% in 4Q, but that's just my extremely unscientific guess based on what I'm reading and how I think things will play out. 

Edited by Bozo_Casanova
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Loco

Loco 3752

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The Federal Emergency Management Agency warned last year that a pandemic caused by a novel strain of influenza would cripple the country‘s response capabilities by driving millions of people into overwhelmed hospitals.

The report, which was written before the new coronavirus first surfaced in China, offered these prescient predictions: The deluge of patients would create “a shortage of medical supplies, equipment, beds, and healthcare workers.”

FEMA‘s warning, issued in July, forecast with stunning accuracy the social, economic and personal devastation that the ongoing pandemic has caused.

The report, which has not been previously described, was drafted in collaboration with the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy and other federal organizations.

Didn't post the whole article, it's not paywall but does contain the T word

FEMA Report Warned of Pandemic Vulnerability Months before COVID-19

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/fema-report-warned-of-pandemic-vulnerability-months-before-covid-19/

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Message Board User

Message Board User 12395

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Posted
40 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

We all know we won't be back to BAU by any time in May. How about mid-June? When we come back, is it really roaring back? Voids in all of those industries are appropriately filled throughout the 2nd half of the year and long term user behaviors haven't changed? I don't see any of that being the case, but I hope others are right.

You make an excellent point that was also articulated by Jonah Goldberg this morning - for the economy to return to "normal," people are going to need to see evidence that large gatherings are safe and that will take time.

 

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Serak The Preparer

Serak The Preparer 3431

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Posted
17 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

 

Q4/Q4% isn't quarter over quarter. Only being off from same period, year prior, by 6.9% looks like a rosy outlook. 2020 looks like is a lost year. We're all trying to predict a future after a global black swan with no precedent. Maybe the Q3/Q4 percentages are validated, but I don't see the YOY ratio for Q4 being close. I guess it starts with how far things go for Q2.

Major segments of the economy aren't just in a lull, they've disappeared, and some permanently:

-Sports is a top 10, maybe top 5, industry in the US. When does it return? Hint: probably not at all in 2020. Poof, gone. I'm not just talking large gatherings and the pro sports. Little League has been canceled. Pop Warner is in jeopardy. Most golf courses are closed. 

-Restaurants, hotels, casinos, tourist attractions (when does Carlsbad Caverns open back up to large groups of people crowding together in cold, damp, dark places?), tourist cities (Vegas and NYC going to be booming by Q4 ahead of a vaccine?) amusement parks, movies, filming tv and movies, airlines, rental cars - these things are all fragile shells of themselves or gone for the time being. There's probably 20-30 other types of businesses that can be flatly lumped into this. It all sucks, but I don't feel like it's hyperbole.

-Energy - right

-Car manufacturing and sales - not good, Bob. How about boats, hoes and planes? 

-Healthcare - you yourself have highlighted the mass peril and the absolute need for a bailout just to see it survive.

40% fall off from the prior quarter looks rosy, as insane as that is to type. Things hummed as normal in the US until basically the week of March 6, when SXSW was canceled that Friday. The dominos fell from that week forward. 40% worse for Q2 presumes that we're all back at it at some point in May, picking up where we left off. Q1 had the luxury of running as planned for 70% of the cycle. Q2 won't have that for a single day. 

 

You are vastly overstating impact of sports, which isn't surprising given the nature of this site (not meant as a dig at you, more that sports is what drew most of us here). Yes, sports is in the shitter, but you can get data directly from the Bureau of Economic Activity at Dept of Commerce that includes things like economic output by industry. The category of "Performing arts, spectator sports, museums, and related activities, which is ~$210B in output, accounts for less than 1% of private industry, let along if you include Govt.

Banking, Insurance, Real Estate, Manufacturing, Professional Services, Retail, Wholesale, Information, and Healthcare are what move the needle, and all of those have numerous subcomponents that outweigh sports. There are still some big losers in there to be sure, but grocery is doing ok. Most professional services are still doing ok. If you  bring public sector back in, that is increasing spending. When you take full view, a 40% decrease Q/Q is still really bad, but it's not like all economic activity is completely stopping.

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Viper

Viper 12108

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Posted
1 hour ago, SydneyCarton said:

Fun fact, CloseToJumping's first real car purchase when I met him out of college was a Dodge Intrepid. I believe he drove that car for like 8 years without an air conditioner in Houston until he drove it into the wall on a flyover to collect on the $500 of insurance value. 

lying top gun GIF

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closetojumping

closetojumping 62604

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Message Board User said:

You make an excellent point that was also articulated by Jonah Goldberg this morning - for the economy to return to "normal," people are going to need to see evidence that large gatherings are safe and that will take time.

 

I'm with you, there isn't a government official running a free city, state or country on this planet that's ultimately going to drive outcomes with declarations or pleas after this. We're going to have to know what the fuck it is we're dealing with and how it will be handled before we ever show up en masse to much. (Maybe parks, beaches, and religious establishments can be excluded from this for varying reasons, but they're not going to drive western economies anyway)

But in terms of the look forward around human behaviors and how that translates to business/religious/governmental actions, I really don't think anyone, anywhere has a clue. The best anyone can do is admit they don't know shit, and that would include economists, religious leaders, business leaders, government officials, no one knows.

This is not comparable to the Great Depression. Dot.bomb and Great Recessions were byproducts of fraud and gaming and gradual to boot. No one shut everything down overnight in the Spanish Flu epidemic and the world is too different than it was in the panics of 1893 and 1907. There isn't a comparative precedent whatsoever for this, and it is global. Once that is an understood given, sure, let's make predictions and I hope the hopeful ones are correct for all of us. 

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Onboard 2.0

Onboard 2.0 9083

Posted
Posted (edited)
59 minutes ago, JOSEYWALES66 said:

Iran seems to be past their peak.  So that’s some good news. 

I think Iran was actually past it's peak when they lost to the Greeks in Xerxes second invasion attempt, but that's just me.

Edited by Onboard 2.0
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Snake Diggity

Snake Diggity 4621

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Posted
1 hour ago, closetojumping said:

 

Q4/Q4% isn't quarter over quarter. Only being off from same period, year prior, by 6.9% looks like a rosy outlook. 2020 looks like is a lost year. We're all trying to predict a future after a global black swan with no precedent. Maybe the Q3/Q4 percentages are validated, but I don't see the YOY ratio for Q4 being close. I guess it starts with how far things go for Q2.

Major segments of the economy aren't just in a lull, they've disappeared, and some permanently:

-Sports is a top 10, maybe top 5, industry in the US. When does it return? Hint: probably not at all in 2020. Poof, gone. I'm not just talking large gatherings and the pro sports. Little League has been canceled. Pop Warner is in jeopardy. Most golf courses are closed. 

-Restaurants, hotels, casinos, tourist attractions (when does Carlsbad Caverns open back up to large groups of people crowding together in cold, damp, dark places?), tourist cities (Vegas and NYC going to be booming by Q4 ahead of a vaccine?) amusement parks, movies, filming tv and movies, airlines, rental cars - these things are all fragile shells of themselves or gone for the time being. There's probably 20-30 other types of businesses that can be flatly lumped into this. It all sucks, but I don't feel like it's hyperbole.

-Energy - right

-Car manufacturing and sales - not good, Bob. How about boats, hoes and planes? 

-Healthcare - you yourself have highlighted the mass peril and the absolute need for a bailout just to see it survive.

40% fall off from the prior quarter looks rosy, as insane as that is to type. Things hummed as normal in the US until basically the week of March 6, when SXSW was canceled that Friday. The dominos fell from that week forward. 40% worse for Q2 presumes that we're all back at it at some point in May, picking up where we left off. Q1 had the luxury of running as planned for 70% of the cycle. Q2 won't have that for a single day. 

None of this even considers all of the global dependencies tied to recovery, and other countries are going to have to swing back well too. We don't even know what kind of social and economic wounds this has uncovered and how they'll be repaired in other places, for better or worse.

We all know we won't be back to BAU by any time in May. How about mid-June? When we come back, is it really roaring back? Voids in all of those industries are appropriately filled throughout the 2nd half of the year and long term user behaviors haven't changed? I don't see any of that being the case, but I hope others are right.

 

I just don’t see it contracting that much.  Yes, restaurants, entertainment, and many industries that require large numbers of people gathered together either as employees or customers are temporarily screwed.  But 40% would mean the average person isn’t even engaging in their most fundamental spending (mortgage, car payments, groceries, utilities).  My guess is 30% down for Q2, with stimulus helping make most of that back gradually over the next 12 months.  
 

We will be in recession until a vaccine is ready, but I think unemployment will be single digits by Q4.

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closetojumping

closetojumping 62604

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, Serak The Preparer said:

You are vastly overstating impact of sports, which isn't surprising given the nature of this site (not meant as a dig at you, more that sports is what drew most of us here). Yes, sports is in the shitter, but you can get data directly from the Bureau of Economic Activity at Dept of Commerce that includes things like economic output by industry. The category of "Performing arts, spectator sports, museums, and related activities, which is ~$210B in output, accounts for less than 1% of private industry, let along if you include Govt.

Banking, Insurance, Real Estate, Manufacturing, Professional Services, Retail, Wholesale, Information, and Healthcare are what move the needle, and all of those have numerous subcomponents that outweigh sports. There are still some big losers in there to be sure, but grocery is doing ok. Most professional services are still doing ok. If you  bring public sector back in, that is increasing spending. When you take full view, a 40% decrease Q/Q is still really bad, but it's not like all economic activity is completely stopping.

Fair enough. I was trying to highlight it in the abstract versus an officially tracked number, and quickly since the post was already long-winded.

I was thinking not just about attendance and ticket sales, but money in advertising on location and through platforms, plus sports-associated: travel to and from, hotel stays, merchandise, equipment, gambling, food and alcohol sales, watching parties at bars, restaurants, and homes (buying goods for the party at the home), and so forth. Athlete pay, collegiate revenue, so on and so forth. Plus, major events like the Super Bowl and CFP that drive big impacts for the locales. If that's all still coming in below 1% of our GDP, then that's great news because I think that is wrecked until we have better info, which doesn't seem to be on the immediate horizon. 

 

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utee94

utee94 15811

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Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

I just don’t see it contracting that much.  Yes, restaurants, entertainment, and many industries that require large numbers of people gathered together either as employees or customers are temporarily screwed.  But 40% would mean the average person isn’t even engaging in their most fundamental spending (mortgage, car payments, groceries, utilities).  My guess is 30% down for Q2, with stimulus helping make most of that back gradually over the next 12 months.  
 

We will be in recession until a vaccine is ready, but I think unemployment will be single digits by Q4.

I do.  It already dropped 10% in Q1, and most of the major SIP orders didn't go into effect until the middle or end of March.  That 10% drop is representative of about 2-3 weeks of downside in the general economy, against the entire quarter. 

April is going to be an unbelievable disaster, the kind of numbers we've never seen in this country in MoM declines, not even during the Great Depression.  May will continue the trend if SIP restrictions remain all the way through the end of that month.  

I'm definitely hopeful we'll see the V and that the recovery will begin ramping quickly in Q3.

Edited by utee94
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FondrenRoad

FondrenRoad 4378

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4 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

I just don’t see it contracting that much.  Yes, restaurants, entertainment, and many industries that require large numbers of people gathered together either as employees or customers are temporarily screwed.  But 40% would mean the average person isn’t even engaging in their most fundamental spending (mortgage, car payments, groceries, utilities).  My guess is 30% down for Q2, with stimulus helping make most of that back gradually over the next 12 months.  
 

We will be in recession until a vaccine is ready, but I think unemployment will be single digits by Q4.

One third of American renters didn't pay April rent. As this continues, that number will be higher for May.  Unpaid rent will also correspond with unpaid mortgage payments for the landlord. It isn't hard to see how we get to 40%.  

I don't see any numbers for car loans, but most lenders are now offering deferments on existing car notes. I imagine a lot of people are taking advantage of that.  

Utilities are outright banned from disconnecting service in many places right now. A significant portion of those bills aren't getting paid either.

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