Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

[Coelenterate Fuccboi 13091]

33 minutes ago, Message Board User said:

for the economy to return to "normal," people are going to need to see evidence that large gatherings are safe and that will take time.

I’m willing to participate in an experiment which should assist with easing everyone’s concerns. It would entail a rather large group of sexy college girls, and me, spending a couple weeks together on a cruise ship. I’m willing to make this sacrifice as soon as possible.

[Bozo_Casanova 26441]

5 minutes ago, FondrenRoad said:

One third of American renters didn't pay April rent. As this continues, that number will be higher for May.  Unpaid rent will also correspond with unpaid mortgage payments for the landlord. It isn't hard to see how we get to 40%.  

I don't see any numbers for car loans, but most lenders are now offering deferments on existing car notes. I imagine a lot of people are taking advantage of that.  

Utilities are outright banned from disconnecting service in many places right now. A significant portion of those bills aren't getting paid either.

This is a great example of what I was talking about with “financial time” not stopping with “economic time”. But new car sales were fucked already.

Edited April 10, 2020 by Bozo_Casanova

[closetojumping 62597]

3 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

 

Okay, dickhead, party's over. Petty insurance fraud has somehow escaped my list of committed egregious crimes. The rest is probably awesomely true and if there's a "my hoopty" thread somewhere on this site, let's go discuss. I can regale people with the 7 different accidents you've caused since I've known you, and you thusly having your license suspended for half a decade. 

[Surly Bevo 24908]

Tarrant County website has gotten really damn informative.

 

I find report date vs specimen collection date an interesting chart, though admittedly more recent collection dates are going to be understated since there is nothing to actually report.  Once numbers fill in a bit more will be able to see if there is a true fall to anything

 

http://www.tarrantcounty.com/content/main/en/public-health/disease-control---prevention/coronaviruas.html

[Coelenterate Fuccboi 13091]

9 minutes ago, Message Board User said:

So we're not going to have a V-shaped economic recovery?

[utee94 15811]

9 minutes ago, Message Board User said:

So we're not going to have a V-shaped economic recovery?

 

5 minutes ago, Rip76 said:

More like a “W.”

Nah, I think it's probably going to look more like this:

 

[Surly Bevo 24908]

5 minutes ago, Casual Encounter said:

I’m willing to participate in an experiment which should assist with easing everyone’s concerns. It would entail a rather large group of sexy college girls, and me, spending a couple weeks together on a cruise ship. I’m willing to make this sacrifice as soon as possible.

So a Planned Encounter?  

Not aligned...

[Francisco 2.0 32389]

https://www.theverge.com/2020/4/10/21216484/google-apple-coronavirus-contract-tracing-bluetooth-location-tracking-data-app

 

Quote

Apple and Google announced a system for tracking the spread of the new coronavirus, allowing users to share data through Bluetooth Low Energy (BLE) transmissions and approved apps from health organizations.

Edited April 10, 2020 by Francisco 2.0

[closetojumping 62597]

18 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

I just don’t see it contracting that much.  Yes, restaurants, entertainment, and many industries that require large numbers of people gathered together either as employees or customers are temporarily screwed.  But 40% would mean the average person isn’t even engaging in their most fundamental spending (mortgage, car payments, groceries, utilities).  My guess is 30% down for Q2, with stimulus helping make most of that back gradually over the next 12 months.  
 

We will be in recession until a vaccine is ready, but I think unemployment will be single digits by Q4.

I respect your ability on projections. I always enjoyed reading your projections on minor leaguers in the Astros system on the CFB and ClutchCity sites and they were often quite well done. That said, on this one, I'm just going to stand by two things:

1) None of us know shit, so any of us could be right and I hope you are.

2) From the post you quoted, you see my logic for my expectations. I think Q2 is going to look like something we've never seen before. Q1 collapsed at the end and was otherwise normal for two-thirds and it still dropped by 10% from Q prior. I don't see a semblance of normal happening in Q2, so I remain convinced 40% falloff is rosy. 

I can tell you from firsthand knowledge that unprecedented numbers of customers have stopped paying their bills on utilities basically overnight. That isn't functioning as normal and moratoriums for disconnects have been placed as late as through September as of right now, which will absolutely extend the non-payment behavior. Further, the SMB and C&I sides of utility-forecasted revenue is in free fall. I mean, blowing past reduction in usage compared to the Great Recession. There's a pretty good shot that utilities spanning the country are going to need massive governmental support. 

Mortgages and rent? Gas usage? Taxes being paid? Insurance being canceled on cars? I'm guessing we could all think of multiple other things along these lines, and quickly. All of that is in jeopardy right now for Q2 at a minimum. Hell, I'm reluctant thinking about the ramifications of just the lack of sales tax, tourism tax, and property tax income making its way (or actually, really not) to local and state governments and what that does to us in the latter part of the year as the Q2 ripple effect hits. The sales and tourism-related taxes aren't recoverable. They're farts in the wind. 

[JesusSweatDuck 17781]

35 minutes ago, Message Board User said:

So we're not going to have a V-shaped economic recovery?

Pear shaped

[Cheeseweasel 26438]

17 minutes ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

https://www.theverge.com/2020/4/10/21216484/google-apple-coronavirus-contract-tracing-bluetooth-location-tracking-data-app

 

In before the "Bluetooth Low Energy causes Corona" Facebook posts.

[Cheeseweasel 26438]

3 minutes ago, JesusSweatDuck said:

Pear shaped

Shut up, Frenchie. We know.

[Hate 20108]

20 minutes ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

https://www.theverge.com/2020/4/10/21216484/google-apple-coronavirus-contract-tracing-bluetooth-location-tracking-data-app

 

My initial reaction is to think that is pretty cool and could be somewhat effective.  Then I think about it for a minute and I know it won't work simply because at least half of the population won't install the app or upload their infection status because "my freedom".  I've had conversations with friends that have already said there is no way they are getting the vaccine when it is available because "my freedom". 

Edited April 10, 2020 by Hate

[Cheeseweasel 26438]

2 minutes ago, Hate said:

I've had conversations with friends that have already said there is no way they are getting the vaccine when it is available because "my freedom". 

[Francisco 2.0 32389]

Just now, Hate said:

My initial reaction is to think that is pretty cool and could be somewhat effective.  Then I thkn about it for a minute and I know it won't work simply because at least half of the population won't install the app or upload their infection status because "my freedom".  I've had conversations with friends that have already said there is no way they are getting the vaccine when it is available because "my freedom". 

Oh, no shit.

I have coworkers that I have not had discussions like this, and I know for a fact what their stance is on privacy, etc.   These people have no qualms about broadcasting their lives on Facebook, however.

As for the vaccine, it boggles the mind that there still are people who would rather risk death than take a vaccine.

[Brisketexan 105093]

3 minutes ago, Hate said:

My initial reaction is to think that is pretty cool and could be somewhat effective.  Then I think about it for a minute and I know it won't work simply because at least half of the population won't install the app or upload their infection status because "my freedom".  I've had conversations with friends that have already said there is no way they are getting the vaccine when it is available because "my freedom". 

This is why I think that the legal community needs to create a robust and relentless plan to sue anti-vaxxers who get other people sick and killed.  There is a reasonable step you can take to avoid catching and carrying a virus that can hurt or kill me and my family.  You unreasonably refused to take that action, causing harm to me and my family.  You should be liable for damages.

Kind of like if you got behind the wheel of a car citing your freedom to drive around with your eyes closed.  Nope, it was unreasonable for you to refuse to open your eyes.  You're on the hook.

Start making these fucksticks go bankrupt with judgments against them, and shit might change.

Also, criminally negligent homicide charges (so, criminal action) would apply as well.

[Brisketexan 105093]

3 minutes ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

Oh, no shit.

I have coworkers that I have not had discussions like this, and I know for a fact what their stance is on privacy, etc.   These people have no qualms about broadcasting their lives on Facebook, however.

As for the vaccine, it boggles the mind that there still are people who would rather risk death than take a vaccine.

It's worse than that.  The are willing to risk killing YOU instead of taking a vaccine.  Fuck em.  Choices have consequences.  You make a choice that kills someone else, you pay the fucking price.

[South Austin 52462]

50 minutes ago, FondrenRoad said:

One third of American renters didn't pay April rent. As this continues, that number will be higher for May.  Unpaid rent will also correspond with unpaid mortgage payments for the landlord. It isn't hard to see how we get to 40%.  

I don't see any numbers for car loans, but most lenders are now offering deferments on existing car notes. I imagine a lot of people are taking advantage of that.  

Utilities are outright banned from disconnecting service in many places right now. A significant portion of those bills aren't getting paid either.

Pornhub should do the right thing and suspend all payments for premium subscriptions.

[workswithseed 2099]

[The Dog 44020]

How do y'all know so many anti-vaxxers?

I have a heck of a lot of friends who would fit the profile of an "anti-vaxxer" and I think I know exactly one person who actually is (and she's in Oklahoma, of course). I don't think that they are a big enough population to be a risk. 

Edited April 10, 2020 by The Dog

[Leeroy Jenkins 2402]

56 minutes ago, Casual Encounter said:

More like this:

[Poe It Up 126]

I appreciate the economic talk, but we need to start asking ourselves the tough questions. For instance, are pants necessary when picking up a curbside delivery? 

[NeverMarryAStripper 21890]

22 minutes ago, Hate said:

My initial reaction is to think that is pretty cool and could be somewhat effective.  Then I think about it for a minute and I know it won't work simply because at least half of the population won't install the app or upload their infection status because "my freedom".  I've had conversations with friends that have already said there is no way they are getting the vaccine when it is available because "my freedom". 

So we create an application that tracks everyone and everyone they come in contact with, give it to the Government and expect that:

a.  It will be, and stay, anonymous; and

b.  the data will only ever be stored for 14 days; and

c   it will go away after the crisis is over; and

d  it's ok because the Government pinkie swears that it will never be used for nefarious purposes.

 

 

 

[pacman 7355]

2 hours ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Here's the thing - JPMC has to put numbers out, but all these models are calibrated to a normal economic reality, which is very different from the new and unprecedented economic reality of right now.
Disclaimer: I'm going to boil a couple of extremely complex and not wholly uncontroversial ideas down to something very simple. It's my opinion we're talking about, so please don't substitute this for broad based conventional economic thinking, which is what the JPMC model is fairly representative of. 

JP Morgan is basically saying that the the economy had good fundamentals when we stopped it, and because of the stimulus there's all this aggregate demand out there waiting to go someplace. Therefore when we all pour out of our homes we'll roar right back. And maybe that's true. We stopped the music and everyone froze in place so when the music starts again we will all be in our places and ready to resume dancing. So that's a deep V depression, but we pull out quickly. 

But I'm not sure that's true on either side, this is why.

When we talk about "the economy" we're really talking about our progress and direction along two deeply connected but separate timelines that run in parallel. 

The first is economic time - that's people making things and doing things and working and generally it's the timeline that real economic productivity runs on. 

The second is financial time - that's the rate at which things are expected to be paid for. The rent, the mortgage, the groceries and the toilet paper and the food all run (at different speeds) on financial time.

So you can imagine, those things run together, but you can actually stop economic time and restart it. Financial time never stops. And despite being a productivity metric, GDP is actually measured on financial time, because those things are usually deeply linked. Even in a war, financial activity paces to economic time, as consumption and productivity shift to other areas and grow and shrink together. 

But this is not a normal reality. In this reality, for the first time ever, we've but the brakes on a whole sectors without stopping financial time. And we're kind of using stimulus to make up the difference, but nobody really knows how well that will work, because the kind of stimulus we are applying is stimulus that mostly actions on the economic timeline, not the financial timeline, which is where the delta is experienced. 

So lets say for grins that we are back in business in August or so. Most affluent people pick up spending where they left off. Did they spend that much less while economic time was stopped? How about the people in the middle? My guess is that even though they were unemployed they continued to spend because financial time never stops, and the essentials never stopped working because they couldn't afford to and weren't required to. 

So for me the bottom line is that we don't know. but I think that depending on how long this goes the less impacted parts of the economy are possibly more resilient than people think for all kinds of reasons, including the ability to work remotely. And as bad as income inequality and the gulf between the haves and have nots in our society has gotten, the result is an economic system where huge numbers of essential workers will continue to work no matter what, and the people at the top will work from home and get takeout and order things no matter what, and the bulk of this will be felt in service industry and retail employment that is somewhat on-demand in nature. That's horrible for the people in the middle but paints a somewhat less dire picture in terms of GDP decline, but also far less rosy in terms of recovery or at least the sustainability of recovery. Also, it should be mentioned that several things, especially new auto sales and other indicaters were already flashing red before this even started so we were probably heading into a cyclical recession anyway. 

All that is to say that I think we'll probably wind up closer to -30% GDP in 2Q, and closer to +15% for 3Q, and maybe 7% in 4Q, but that's just my extremely unscientific guess based on what I'm reading and how I think things will play out. 

Are there any theories or discussions on a way forward for the US to create a more resilient economy?

While the magnitude of this disruption is unprecedented I am sure, it seems we have shifted our workforce too far into the volatile service industries which has exacerbated the disruption of a shutdown, in combination with our lack of federal planning of course.

Edited April 10, 2020 by pacman

[pacman 7355]

6 minutes ago, NeverMarryAStripper said:

So we create an application that tracks everyone and everyone they come in contact with, give it to the Government and expect that:

a.  It will be, and stay, anonymous; and

b.  the data will only ever be stored for 14 days; and

c   it will go away after the crisis is over; and

d  it's ok because the Government pinkie swears that it will never be used for nefarious purposes.

 

 

 

Agree with you, American culture would never allow it, if only because trust in government is at an all-time low.

Edited April 10, 2020 by pacman

[closetojumping 62597]

32 minutes ago, Hate said:

My initial reaction is to think that is pretty cool and could be somewhat effective.  Then I think about it for a minute and I know it won't work simply because at least half of the population won't install the app or upload their infection status because "my freedom".  I've had conversations with friends that have already said there is no way they are getting the vaccine when it is available because "my freedom". 

I'm not an anti-vaxxer and don't know any, but I don't want major tech firms and the government freely exchanging constant information about my whereabouts. "They already know everything". Maybe, but I would prefer to keep my illusions. I don't actually think they do "know" everything anyway, and I don't want to hand out more access than they already quietly have. 

[Iceman 2699]

2 minutes ago, pacman said:

Agree with you, American culture would never allow it, if only because trust in government is at an all-time low.

It’s not even really a matter of trust is it?

[Txzen 498]

9 hours ago, SydneyCarton said:

Well this seems like good news, and I don’t remember it being posted yet.

https://www.jpost.com/HEALTH-SCIENCE/Israeli-COVID-19-treatment-shows-100-percent-survival-rate-preliminary-data-624058
 

 

Perhaps for a few who are very ill, but it's a placental-derived stem cell therapy, and not likely to be mainstream therapy any time soon. 

[bluto 4915]

I respect your ability on projections. I always enjoyed reading your projections on minor leaguers in the Astros system on the CFB and ClutchCity sites and they were often quite well done. That said, on this one, I'm just going to stand by two things:
1) None of us know shit, so any of us could be right and I hope you are.
2) From the post you quoted, you see my logic for my expectations. I think Q2 is going to look like something we've never seen before. Q1 collapsed at the end and was otherwise normal for two-thirds and it still dropped by 10% from Q prior. I don't see a semblance of normal happening in Q2, so I remain convinced 40% falloff is rosy. 
I can tell you from firsthand knowledge that unprecedented numbers of customers have stopped paying their bills on utilities basically overnight. That isn't functioning as normal and moratoriums for disconnects have been placed as late as through September as of right now, which will absolutely extend the non-payment behavior. Further, the SMB and C&I sides of utility-forecasted revenue is in free fall. I mean, blowing past reduction in usage compared to the Great Recession. There's a pretty good shot that utilities spanning the country are going to need massive governmental support. 
Mortgages and rent? Gas usage? Taxes being paid? Insurance being canceled on cars? I'm guessing we could all think of multiple other things along these lines, and quickly. All of that is in jeopardy right now for Q2 at a minimum. Hell, I'm reluctant thinking about the ramifications of just the lack of sales tax, tourism tax, and property tax income making its way (or actually, really not) to local and state governments and what that does to us in the latter part of the year as the Q2 ripple effect hits. The sales and tourism-related taxes aren't recoverable. They're farts in the wind. 

From a Texas Property Tax point of view this hitting in the spring was near perfect timing with Jan 31 deadline in the rearview and 1-31-21 possibly allowing time for some recovery.

[Hate 20108]

14 minutes ago, Poe It Up said:

I appreciate the economic talk, but we need to start asking ourselves the tough questions. For instance, are pants necessary when picking up a curbside delivery? 

 

They really aren't even required during normal times.

Edited April 10, 2020 by Hate

[pacman 7355]

16 minutes ago, Poe It Up said:

I appreciate the economic talk, but we need to start asking ourselves the tough questions. For instance, are pants necessary when picking up a curbside delivery? 

 

chart for your reference

[Loco 3752]

 

[pacman 7355]

using worldometers, https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

 

is the US struggling to get patients to recovery and wtf is with the wild outliers in UK and Germany?

recovery to death ratio

World 3.67

US 1.49

Spain 3.49

Italy 1.62

France 1.89

Germany 20.1

UK .02

The numbers are just shit?

[Cheeseweasel 26438]

25 minutes ago, Poe It Up said:

I appreciate the economic talk, but we need to start asking ourselves the tough questions. For instance, are pants necessary when picking up a curbside delivery? 

[SydneyCarton 48073]

27 minutes ago, NeverMarryAStripper said:

So we create an application that tracks everyone and everyone they come in contact with, give it to the Government and expect that:

a.  It will be, and stay, anonymous; and

b.  the data will only ever be stored for 14 days; and

c   it will go away after the crisis is over; and

d  it's ok because the Government pinkie swears that it will never be used for nefarious purposes.

 

 

 

The government already has and uses that information anyway. It's just a matter of they don't tell/admit it to the public. 

[Loco 3752]

20 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

I'm not an anti-vaxxer and don't know any, but I don't want major tech firms and the government freely exchanging constant information about my whereabouts. "They already know everything". Maybe, but I would prefer to keep my illusions. I don't actually think they do "know" everything anyway, and I don't want to hand out more access than they already quietly have. 

They (large tech companies) do have a shocking amount of data on you (every cellphone/Smartphone user) including location history/time, bio metrics, etc....  You have already agreed that the data is their data, not your data and that it may be shared or sold without your consent or knowledge.  So basically it's not up to you, it hasn't been for a long time.  It's basically a PR decision for them if selling/using data for this purpose is worth it  considering the risk to revenue streams from public outcry or potential legislation/regulation. 

Would it make you feel better if they sold it to the government?  Because they are selling it to everyone else.

Edited April 10, 2020 by Loco
conjunction junction

[NAVY 6740]

21 minutes ago, Txzen said:

Perhaps for a few who are very ill, but it's a placental-derived stem cell therapy, and not likely to be mainstream therapy any time soon. 

We’re going to need a bigger placenta 

[XYZ 2154]

19 minutes ago, pacman said:

Are there any theories or discussions on a way forward for the US to create a more resilient economy?

While the magnitude of this disruption is unprecedented I am sure, it seems we have shifted our workforce too far into the volatile service industries which has exacerbated the disruption of a shutdown, in combination with our lack of federal planning of course.

There’s not gonna be any effort toward building a more resilient anything. The TARP out front should have told ya. What I mean is, between 2002-2007 there was a huge amount of gaming the financial system and outright lying on “stated income” loans, MBS and what have you. Then it detonated in 2008, and what did the government do about all that? Bail out all the banksters, not throw a single one of them in prison, and not change a goddamn thing so that it wouldn’t happen again. The whole effort was to put us right back to where we were before. Must not upset the apple cart.

In this case, you would think that some effort would be put into building some critical infrastructure so that we can, oh, I don’t know, maybe manufacture our own goddamn chemicals and not have to depend on fucking China for everything. But no. Because money.

[PenelopeWitherspoon 19100]

[Loco 3752]

2 minutes ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

 

x,x,x,x

x,x,x,x

x,x,x,x

[po elvis 2070]

Is anybody worried about copycat viruses in the future? Terrorists (of any race or belief) seeing the damage this thing has caused, and trying to wreak as much havoc as possible on countries or the world. Would it be possible?

[Bevo 13575]

1 hour ago, Message Board User said:

So we're not going to have a V-shaped economic recovery?

I think Thujone has a pic for our projected economic recovery.

[Dahobbs 17532]

Michigan with a big jump on BNO. Shows +205 so far today. 

[FondrenRoad 4378]

42 minutes ago, NeverMarryAStripper said:

So we create an application that tracks everyone and everyone they come in contact with, give it to the Government and expect that:

a.  It will be, and stay, anonymous; and

b.  the data will only ever be stored for 14 days; and

c   it will go away after the crisis is over; and

d  it's ok because the Government pinkie swears that it will never be used for nefarious purposes.

 

 

 

The government doesn't need to do anything. Apple and Google can just launch it.  People will sign up because that's what we do. Other private businesses will require it for entry. It will soon be a de facto requirement. 

70% of us use Facebook. 50% of us use Prime. 96% of us already carry around a mobile tracking device with us everywhere we go.  Americans don't care about privacy. We just like to be violated in an unregulated fashion. 

The hardest part of the deal would be getting Apple to create an app that plays nice with a Google app. They both already know we don't give a shit about privacy. 

Edited April 10, 2020 by FondrenRoad

[akhornfan 4]

I didn’t see anyone mention it, but IHME revised again this morning. Added 1,000 or so to total deaths, but moved peak deaths to yesterday. Hopefully that’s true. 

[Cheeseweasel 26438]

1 minute ago, FondrenRoad said:

We just like to be violated in an unregulated fashion. 

[SydneyCarton 48073]

5 minutes ago, po elvis said:

Is anybody worried about copycat viruses in the future? Terrorists (of any race or belief) seeing the damage this thing has caused, and trying to wreak as much havoc as possible on countries or the world. Would it be possible?

If by terrorists you mean China, maybe. Lots of folks think this was manufactured. But they'd have to have a way to inoculate their own population. Maybe.

If by terrorists you mean the Taliban sorts, well, I don't see them designing a virus in a lab and unleashing it. 

If you mean 12 Monkeys, well, shit, maybe. 

[Onboard 2.0 9083]

2 hours ago, Onboard 2.0 said:

I think Iran (I think Army brat knew them as Persia. Obligatory) was actually past it's peak when they lost to the Greeks in Xerxes second invasion attempt, but that's just me.

 

[Cheeseweasel 26438]

14 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

If you mean 12 Monkeys, well, shit, maybe.

[gmr548 16576]

I just don’t see it contracting that much.  Yes, restaurants, entertainment, and many industries that require large numbers of people gathered together either as employees or customers are temporarily screwed.  But 40% would mean the average person isn’t even engaging in their most fundamental spending (mortgage, car payments, groceries, utilities).  My guess is 30% down for Q2, with stimulus helping make most of that back gradually over the next 12 months.  
 
We will be in recession until a vaccine is ready, but I think unemployment will be single digits by Q4.

A lot of people will not be meeting payment obligations. Most of this country cannot cover a $1,000 emergency. Tens of millions will be looking at much worse than that.

One third of American renters didn't pay April rent. As this continues, that number will be higher for May. l

You got a source on that? I'm in multifamily and what I've seen says about 75 percent of residents made some payment, and keep in mind that number is normally not 100 percent. It's more like 80-85 percent.

Still, that's a noticeable drop and most in the sector do expect that number to trend down.