Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

[Treefidy 1469]

21 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

This is why I think that the legal community needs to create a robust and relentless plan to sue anti-vaxxers who get other people sick and killed.  There is a reasonable step you can take to avoid catching and carrying a virus that can hurt or kill me and my family.  You unreasonably refused to take that action, causing harm to me and my family.  You should be liable for damages.

Kind of like if you got behind the wheel of a car citing your freedom to drive around with your eyes closed.  Nope, it was unreasonable for you to refuse to open your eyes.  You're on the hook.

Start making these fucksticks go bankrupt with judgments against them, and shit might change.

Also, criminally negligent homicide charges (so, criminal action) would apply as well.

Or go get the vaccine yourself and don't worry about the anti-vaxxers?   As long as you and yours are protected why really give a fuck what other people do.

i will get this vaccine though I have never had a flu one.  I've been lucky and maybe had the flu 4-5 times in my life, I know people who get the vaccine every year and damned if they don't get one of the other strains every season.

[achooloco 1072]

8 hours ago, tjhooker said:

Update, Ohio is in peak. The other moron states around us with less population like IN and MI are a mess Ohio is having less cases.  Dont get me started on PA and MD which seem to be also full retard. Somehow, in Ohio we have locked this shit down. 

I wouldn't say somehow. Your governor took drastic and "controversial" measures that are paying off. Good for him, your state, and its people.

[Treefidy 1469]

21 hours ago, NeverMarryAStripper said:

So we create an application that tracks everyone and everyone they come in contact with, give it to the Government and expect that:

a.  It will be, and stay, anonymous; and

b.  the data will only ever be stored for 14 days; and

c   it will go away after the crisis is over; and

d  it's ok because the Government pinkie swears that it will never be used for nefarious purposes.

 

 

 

Don't think you need to download an app for that, apparently it's already integrated into your phone and actively in use.  

https://www.9news.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/utah-entry-text-message-covid-19/73-5a1656e9-95aa-4b76-9399-0804648e4b

According to Utah’s novel coronavirus response website, people driving into the state’s borders will automatically receive a text message directing them to fill out the survey

 

[Dahobbs 17631]

7 minutes ago, Treefidy said:

Or go get the vaccine yourself and don't worry about the anti-vaxxers?   As long as you and yours are protected why really give a fuck what other people do.

i will get this vaccine though I have never had a flu one.  I've been lucky and maybe had the flu 4-5 times in my life, I know people who get the vaccine every year and damned if they don't get one of the other strains every season.

Unfortunately, a small number of anti-vaxxers can ruin the benefits of herd immunity. There is a not insignificant number of people that are unable to get vaccinated (e.g., for medical reasons). If 5% of the population refuses vaccination that could otherwise get it, it exposes those individuals to substantially increased risk. Brisket is really thinking about those people, not himself (well, unless he is one of those people). 

[Foosters 17860]

7 minutes ago, Treefidy said:

Or go get the vaccine yourself and don't worry about the anti-vaxxers?   As long as you and yours are protected why really give a fuck what other people do.

i will get this vaccine though I have never had a flu one.  I've been lucky and maybe had the flu 4-5 times in my life, I know people who get the vaccine every year and damned if they don't get one of the other strains every season.

That's not how it works. Many people are unable to get vaccinated for whatever reasons. Those people rely on enough of the community to get vaccinated in order to reach the minimum threshold for herd immunity.

So, that's why people give a fuck about anti-vaxxers. 

[stork642 4498]

 

2 hours ago, Captainant said:

If there is a bottleneck in testing, that would also be reflected on a chart of deaths attributed to COVID-19. You can't attribute a death without confirming it via testing. 

This can’t be correct.  Once a patient has reached the point of death I find it very difficult to believe they haven’t been tested for corona given what is going on in the world right now.  In fact I think there is probably an over classification of corona deaths right now.  Basically if someone dies and tests positive some are saying it’s a corona death.  Doesn’t mean they necessarily died from CoViD 19. 

[Pato del Muerto 52552]

9 minutes ago, Treefidy said:

Don't think you need to download an app for that, apparently it's already integrated into your phone and actively in use.  

https://www.9news.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/utah-entry-text-message-covid-19/73-5a1656e9-95aa-4b76-9399-0804648e4b

According to Utah’s novel coronavirus response website, people driving into the state’s borders will automatically receive a text message directing them to fill out the survey

 

There’s a difference in phones connecting to cell towers, vs phones close enough to connect to each other via Bluetooth. 

[Dahobbs 17631]

4 minutes ago, stork642 said:

 

This can’t be correct.  Once a patient has reached the point of death I find it very difficult to believe they haven’t been tested for corona given what is going on in the world right now.  In fact I think there is probably an over classification of corona deaths right now.  Basically if someone dies and tests positive some are saying it’s a corona death.  Doesn’t mean they necessarily died from CoViD 19. 

But it can be? And is actually happening?

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/06/health/coronavirus-coroners-uncounted-deaths-invs/index.html;

 https://www.businessinsider.com/coroners-ask-for-coronavirus-test-suspect-us-death-toll-higher-2020-4; 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/05/us/coronavirus-deaths-undercount.html

[Anastasis 23481]

2 hours ago, Captainant said:

If there is a bottleneck in testing, that would also be reflected on a chart of deaths attributed to COVID-19. You can't attribute a death without confirming it via testing. 

CDC guidelines for coding the death certificate do not require a test confirmation, but of course prefer one. 

[Scheiss Meister 8408]

44 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

This is all correct.  And therefore the answer to his question is "Yes".

The FDA will of course be involved in the regulatory approval process, and the CDC will likely have a significant role in the roll out strategy of a vax as production ramps.  We are setting up a situation where we are going to rush an immunological agent to market, developed during a crisis situation, under a regulatory framework that is highly motivated to turn something out quickly. This will likely be the largest vaccination program in the history of the world since smallpox, unless of course we all get the covids before then.  No room for error, but they will skirt the minimum sample size requires powered to efficacy and not safety. Hundreds of millions of people, if not a billions, will be lining up for vax as soon production is able to ramp. It will require a large and active safety surveillance network to really get a good sense of the safety profile. It's gonna be interesting to watch it all play out.  

With their current track record with testing, that does not comfort me a whole lot.  Those folks are working hard, and, for the most part, seem to be on the same page, now.  Will they stay on the same page, and will it be the right page?  I guess we just stay tuned.  Like there's a choice.

[babysdaddy 2726]

[bschoolprof 6271]

I could be a billionaire by September.  

[Treefidy 1469]

20 minutes ago, Foosters said:

That's not how it works. Many people are unable to get vaccinated for whatever reasons. Those people rely on enough of the community to get vaccinated in order to reach the minimum threshold for herd immunity.

So, that's why people give a fuck about anti-vaxxers. 

I guess I don't really understand herd immunity.   If the average person of some new virus infects 4 others but once 50% of the population gets it then they can only infect 2 because the other 2 already had it?  (Oversimplification for sure, but the basis?)   So rate of infection drops significantly the more peop,e get it.  But then what?  It slows down until everyone has had it or it simply disappears never to be heard from again?  

I'm not old enough to have have the polio arm scar, but it was my understanding everyone got that vaccine and polio disappears forever, except it came back recently on a limited run?  

[Foosters 17860]

2 minutes ago, Treefidy said:

I guess I don't really understand herd immunity.   If the average person of some new virus infects 4 others but once 50% of the population gets it then they can only infect 2 because the other 2 already had it?  (Oversimplification for sure, but the basis?)   So rate of infection drops significantly the more peop,e get it.  But then what?  It slows down until everyone has had it or it simply disappears never to be heard from again?  

I'm not old enough to have have the polio arm scar, but it was my understanding everyone got that vaccine and polio disappears forever, except it came back recently on a limited run?  

Honestly, my understanding is rudimentary. This wiki article explains it better than I could

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herd_immunity?wprov=sfla1

 

Also, note this from the above:

"Once a certain threshold has been reached, herd immunity gradually eliminates a disease from a population. This elimination, if achieved worldwide, may result in the permanent reduction in the number of infections to zero, called eradication. Herd immunity created via vaccination contributed to the eventual eradication of smallpox in 1977 and has contributed to the reduction of the frequencies of other diseases."

 

[Anastasis 23481]

4 minutes ago, Scheiss Meister said:

With their current track record with testing, that does not comfort me a whole lot.  Those folks are working hard, and, for the most part, seem to be on the same page, now.  Will they stay on the same page, and will it be the right page?  I guess we just stay tuned.  Like there's a choice.

I think the vax will be different. For one the timelines are such that I think they will have time to act thoughtfully and methodically. Our ace in the hole in this is the pharmaceutical industrial complex.  They have scores of extremely capable scientists, ranging from bench to trialists. Companies are all running at this in parallel, as opposed to the test development that choked through a CDC failure point. What South Korea did is engage industry proactively, to maximize test development and ramp up.  CDC and FDA otoh did the opposite with the testing because, for many reasons that start to go CR, they are bound up by paper and had not planned for this contingency. I don't think that they make that error again.  My concern with the vax would be that they make one at the other end of the spectrum. 

[Landomatic 3813]

2 hours ago, aggie08 said:

I'm just going to make it easy on myself and assume we're counting perfectly.

Username checks out.

[dimyh 1874]

44 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

It doesn’t matter in this equation. It was just “alive.”

Oh I'm not talking about who would win the bet. Just figuring out how to calculate for the great big Covid19 scoreboard.

 

Run over by a bus driver who has Covid19. +1 Rona

Greenspoint mercy killing due to Covid19 panic attacks. +1 Rona

Junior Miller murder/suicide. +2 Rona

Asteroid named Corona smashing into Earth. +3 billion Rona

[Armybrat 40861]

1 hour ago, bullzak said:

Looking at IHME model for Illinois, in last week it has gone from 3800 deaths to 777 projected by Aug. Peak from 4/16 to 4/8.

Amazingly low considering density and size of Chicago. 

Guess they shut things down here just in time. 

Well, the rest died of lead poisoning.

[ABSR 5321]

2 hours ago, F250 said:

So if I toss you in front of a bus, I didn't kill you it was the bus that killed you ?                           

Yes, the bus killed them...but you are responsible.  If you pull a gun and shoot someone they don’t say the cause of death was F250.  They say the cause of death was a gun shot wound.  However your ass is going to jail.

[ABSR 5321]

2 hours ago, F250 said:

So if I toss you in front of a bus, I didn't kill you it was the bus that killed you.

Edited April 11, 2020 by ABSR
Double post

[Scooter Monzingo 821]

1 hour ago, gecko said:

I observed essentially the same thing yesterday afternoon (did a 3:30pm for a couple of items).  Only difference is the mask wearing was closer to 80%.  

Same in my area.

[Liquor and Poker 3659]

41 minutes ago, bschoolprof said:

I could be a billionaire by September.  

We could be undefeated going into September. 

[closetojumping 62771]

2 hours ago, GreenspointTexas said:

Thats why we aint gonna make it

HOLY FUCKING SHIT!!!

[SydneyCarton 48145]

1 minute ago, closetojumping said:

HOLY FUCKING SHIT!!!

Greenspoint is Junior Miller. Jesus it’s so clear right now. Why didn’t anyone connect the dots before this moment? 

[bigup2dahorns 3343]

People are luring Instacart shoppers with big tips -- and then changing them to zero.


https://www.fox5vegas.com/coronavirus/people-are-luring-instacart-shoppers-with-big-tips----and-then-changing-them/article_5e7d24ae-f72e-5c21-94cd-c4b33e6cbfa5.html

[Deej 76875]

23 minutes ago, Liquor and Poker said:

We could be undefeated going into September. 

aggy is a title contender every September. How's that work out? 

[Hate 20130]

Greenspoint is Junior Miller. Jesus it’s so clear right now. Why didn’t anyone connect the dots before this moment? 

No, Junior Miller is back as A’dam Psycho

[Dahobbs 17631]

1 hour ago, Treefidy said:

I guess I don't really understand herd immunity.   If the average person of some new virus infects 4 others but once 50% of the population gets it then they can only infect 2 because the other 2 already had it?  (Oversimplification for sure, but the basis?)   So rate of infection drops significantly the more peop,e get it.  But then what?  It slows down until everyone has had it or it simply disappears never to be heard from again?  

I'm not old enough to have have the polio arm scar, but it was my understanding everyone got that vaccine and polio disappears forever, except it came back recently on a limited run?  

Sort of. Once you get herd immunity the virus isn't able to successfully continuing spreading in the community because each infected individual has a less than 100% probability of infecting another person. As a simple example, let's say you have 100 people infected, but those 100 people can only infect 50 other people (each person infects .5 other people). Those 50 in turn can only infect 25 others. And those 25 can only infect 12 others. Eventually the number is 0 and the virus is effectively eliminated from the population. 

[Hmmm 155]

1 hour ago, Pato del Muerto said:

There’s a difference in phones connecting to cell towers, vs phones close enough to connect to each other via Bluetooth. 

slightly related.. i received one of those emergency response texts on a phone that has no cellular service and was not connected to wifi.  apparently that emergency network can connect to my phone whenever it wants so long as I don't turn off that setting.  

[MC Fresh Breath 4074]

Found this interesting:


https://apnews.com/5c0dc863f214d32a53c6280c31cf3f56

[Pato del Muerto 52552]

2 hours ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

In case you are bored with Covid-19, or want a different reminder that nature is still in business, here's this morning's Krakatoa eruption:

 

 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13516]

2 hours ago, bullzak said:

Looking at IHME model for Illinois, in last week it has gone from 3800 deaths to 777 projected by Aug. Peak from 4/16 to 4/8.

Amazingly low considering density and size of Chicago. 

Guess they shut things down here just in time. 

Given that Illinois is at 600 deaths now, and seeing about 60-70 per day, I'm going with the over by August.  From a quick search the actual early August estimate is closer to 1600.

[workswithseed 2109]

1 hour ago, bschoolprof said:

I could be a billionaire by September.  

It wouldn't matter if we're all billionaires.

[po elvis 2076]

31 minutes ago, bigup2dahorns said:

People are luring Instacart shoppers with big tips -- and then changing them to zero.


https://www.fox5vegas.com/coronavirus/people-are-luring-instacart-shoppers-with-big-tips----and-then-changing-them/article_5e7d24ae-f72e-5c21-94cd-c4b33e6cbfa5.html

That's just fucking disgusting. Total lowlifes. But not sure why anyone would work for instacart or the other gig deliveries when they can file for unemployment and receive an additional $600 a week in top of state unemployment for four months. Make like $900 a week for sitting in your house versus risking your life in the stores.

[Chewbacca 7780]

Are the people who are responsible for the testing also going to be responsible for the vaccine?  I really want the vaccine roll out to be done in a much more competent manner than the testing has been.

Bill Gates is funding the vaccines and building factories to produce them, so that should be done much more efficiently.

[MNLonghornFUKM 8817]

That's just fucking disgusting. Total lowlifes. But not sure why anyone would work for instacart or the other gig deliveries when they can file for unemployment and receive an additional $600 a week in top of state unemployment for four months. Make like $900 a week for sitting in your house versus risking your life in the stores.

Sometimes you wish you could root for the virus against some people

[Chewbacca 7780]

You probably jest, but I was alone in my car, and alone on my bike.  There were maybe a half dozen cars at the trail/park.  I passed or was passed by maybe four riders, generally maintaining 6 foot distance, face-to-face.
I take this pretty seriously and wouldn't do anything purposely to endanger others.

So it's OK for you to be out, but not everyone else?

[Eskimohorn 5642]

Sort of. Once you get herd immunity the virus isn't able to successfully continuing spreading in the community because each infected individual has a less than 100% probability of infecting another person. As a simple example, let's say you have 100 people infected, but those 100 people can only infect 50 other people (each person infects .5 other people). Those 50 in turn can only infect 25 others. And those 25 can only infect 12 others. Eventually the number is 0 and the virus is effectively eliminated from the population. 

Also, in general, you want less transmissions for certain diseases because it decreases chances for mutations. And because vaccinations aren’t 100% effective the more anti-vaxxers out there, the odds vaccinated people get sick gets compounded. And babies.

Measles shouldn’t be a thing anymore but because some communities in this country are under 90% compliant, they are.

[Scheiss Meister 8408]

22 minutes ago, Chewbacca said:

5 hours ago, Scheiss Meister said:

Are the people who are responsible for the testing also going to be responsible for the vaccine?  I really want the vaccine roll out to be done in a much more competent manner than the testing has been.

Bill Gates is funding the vaccines and building factories to produce them, so that should be done much more efficiently.

So I'll be OK after I accept the ULA?  Cool.

[Chewbacca 7780]

So I'll be OK after I accept the ULA?  Cool.

Human centipede time!

[Treefidy 1469]

45 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

Sort of. Once you get herd immunity the virus isn't able to successfully continuing spreading in the community because each infected individual has a less than 100% probability of infecting another person. As a simple example, let's say you have 100 people infected, but those 100 people can only infect 50 other people (each person infects .5 other people). Those 50 in turn can only infect 25 others. And those 25 can only infect 12 others. Eventually the number is 0 and the virus is effectively eliminated from the population. 

 

I get an example where say 150 years ago everyone travelled by boat, horse or foot (leaving railroads out for this example) and say everyone within 200 miles each coast/border have had virus A and have immunity while no one in the middle of the country has had the virus.  So the border immunity serves as a buffer that protects the middle population from virus carriers coming by ship carrying virus A. 

But our ease of travel and overall population mobility today makes it seem like eventually an extremely high number of the population would have to get the virus in order for it to run out of victims.  As contagious as this thing is it seems like nearly everyone either gets it or a vaccination to prevent getting it.

When I first started hearing about herd immunity I thought it made perfect sense, yet the more I thought about it started making less sense in this day and age.  I understand average rate of infection and how that's impacted as there become fewer possible people left to infect.  Everything I've heard is there's an RO of about 3 for CV, or each person infects 3 others on average.  So to me it's seems like around 75% of the population would need to be infected to have herd immunity,.   I mean, sure.  If everyone gets it the herd is immune. Maybe I'm way off on my 75?  Not sure, but if the RO is ~3 then that seems about right before every carriers average 3 are all overlapping   

i don't really se a way to get to a vaccine before we hit 75% unless we all go into isolation for a coup,e months   What we are doing is surely slowing it down, no doubt.  But even if we slow doubling to once a month and we can get a vaccine out in 12 months we still fall short by several months  

 

[Dbeasy 15077]

I’ve been waiting for some type of announcement like this. As I had posted a few weeks ago Bain Consulting had gotten wind of a plan to vaccinate in that time frame. I have a tin foil hat theory that Mitt Romney is in the inside of govt discussions on the topic, and our govt friends have leaked the plans to their favorite Wall Street buddies, making it now clear why the market has been inexplicably going back up while facing potentially the worst gdp downturn in this country’s history.

[Homercles 10206]

3 hours ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

I’ll bet you $1,000 you’re alive and well this time next year

So if he dies are ya gonna just throw the cash into his grave?  

[mchookem 16346]

3 hours ago, Royalfan5 said:

I will note today on my early AM grocery run, that there were no longer milk and egg limits and butter was on sale. The toilet paper and paper towels were fully stocked with normal brands but still limited. There was also liquid hand soap for there first time in a month. No sanitizer yet though. About 50/50 on mask wearing 

austin area heb?

[MNLonghornFUKM 8817]

So if he dies are ya gonna just throw the cash into his grave?  

Of course.

[Pato del Muerto 52552]

Welp 27 degrees and snowing with a 20 mph wind says we aren’t doing outdoor activities today.  

[Dahobbs 17631]

23 minutes ago, Treefidy said:

 

I get an example where say 150 years ago everyone travelled by boat, horse or foot (leaving railroads out for this example) and say everyone within 200 miles each coast/border have had virus A and have immunity while no one in the middle of the country has had the virus.  So the border immunity serves as a buffer that protects the middle population from virus carriers coming by ship carrying virus A. 

But our ease of travel and overall population mobility today makes it seem like eventually an extremely high number of the population would have to get the virus in order for it to run out of victims.  As contagious as this thing is it seems like nearly everyone either gets it or a vaccination to prevent getting it.

When I first started hearing about herd immunity I thought it made perfect sense, yet the more I thought about it started making less sense in this day and age.  I understand average rate of infection and how that's impacted as there become fewer possible people left to infect.  Everything I've heard is there's an RO of about 3 for CV, or each person infects 3 others on average.  So to me it's seems like around 75% of the population would need to be infected to have herd immunity,.   I mean, sure.  If everyone gets it the herd is immune. Maybe I'm way off on my 75?  Not sure, but if the RO is ~3 then that seems about right before every carriers average 3 are all overlapping   

i don't really se a way to get to a vaccine before we hit 75% unless we all go into isolation for a coup,e months   What we are doing is surely slowing it down, no doubt.  But even if we slow doubling to once a month and we can get a vaccine out in 12 months we still fall short by several months  

 

Herd immunity isn't about the border protecting the interior. It is exactly as you describe where a high percentage of the population has immunity, protecting the smaller percentage of the population that does not have or cannot get immunity. The percentage of the population that needs immunity in order for herd immunity to come into play varies depending on the virus (different viruses have varying abilities to spread). For things like measles, which are highly contagious (R0 > 12 via airborne transmission) we need 92% or greater of the population to be immunized in order to protect the 8% that can't be. Other viruses require a much lower threshold because they either have a lower R0 value or because their method of transmission greatly reduces the range at which they can infect others. We don't really know the value needed for sars-cov-2, but I think estimates are between 35 and 75% immunity before herd protections kick in. 

As to methods to slow play the spread of this virus, the playbook has been established for us. We need to first (1) reduce the current outbreak through our shutdowns, (2) develop mass and rapid testing capabilities, (3) rapidly identify and isolate infected individuals via testing and contact tracing. If we can do all those, we can start reopen while keeping the spread of the virus manageable until vaccines are available. Basically, we get things under control and then copy South Korea. Consider that as bad as this outbreak has been, we probably still have less than 10% of our population infected. If we can slow the new cases to a trickle and then isolate them, we can effectively stall the virus until new treatments or vaccines are available. 

[G650 14273]

1 hour ago, Hate said:

No, Junior Miller is back as A’dam Psycho

I thought he offed himself and his wife. Serious lack of follow through here.

[Neonmoon 38130]

I find it amusing that people think the government currently needs your permission to access your data or the data being created and stored by google/Apple/Microsoft/youtube/etc 

 

 

[CooterBrown 18022]

Just talked to my neighbor who’s a doctor. He said the test is completely unreliable. They’re seeing a 40% false negative rate. These are just the patients that they then do a CT scan because the symptoms are so persuasive. No idea what the actual false positive rate is if you include those that don’t do any other testing. They had a guy this week that tested negative 6 times until he finally did a scan that showed it in his lungs. He thinks that if it’s already down in your lungs that it’s no longer in your nasal passage for the swab test to be effective.