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Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

InkaUtexas

By InkaUtexas
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Uncle Boobs
Uncle Boobs

Against my better judgment and several beers deep, I have taken you up on this, potentially ending my streak of totally worthless posts. I have done 3 and 7 day averages only on the Worldometer data. 

Brisketexan
Brisketexan

Daughter’s home. A little PTSD, we’re picking up Whataburger to help.

Coelenterate Fuccboi
Coelenterate Fuccboi

Just try and imagine GreenspointTexas being the person to intubate you as you fight for your life against COVID-19. You’re laying there gasping for air while he chastises you for all the things you li

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Jimbaround

Jimbaround 975

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Found this today and it provides a good summary of stats by country and by state.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/coronavirus/country/united-states/

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/coronavirus/

Interesting to note number of deaths and confirmed cases per 1M of population.

 

Here's the chart for the top 10 in testing:
 

State Deaths Deaths /
1M pop 		New Deaths Tests Confirmed
Cases 		Confirmed Case
Fatality Rate 		Confirmed Cases /
1M pop 		Estimated
Cases
United States Deaths 20,046 - - - 518,236 - - -
New York 8,627 443.5 +783 440,980 180,458 4.78% 9,276.3 -
Florida 438 20.4 +19 173,187 18,494 2.37% 861.1 -
California 598 15.1 +14 164,863 21,448 2.79% 542.8 -
Texas 254 8.8 +6 120,533 12,561 2.02% 433.2 -
Pennsylvania 494 38.6 +48 120,153 21,655 2.28% 1,691.5 -
New Jersey 2,183 245.8 +251 113,523 58,151 3.75% 6,546.9 -
Massachusetts 599 86.2 - 102,372 20,974 2.86% 3,018.1 -
Louisiana 806 173.4 +51 96,915 20,014 4.03% 4,305.2 -
Washington 483 63.4 - 92,999 10,195 4.74% 1,338.8 -
Illinois 596 47.0 - 87,527 17,887 3.33% 1,411.6
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KYHorn

KYHorn 17000

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Regarding the USA death count: I read recently that China has been pretty open about how they're counting their deaths. If you test positive for CV and are on a ventilator, etc, but die of a heart attack, you died of a heart attack, not CV. This isn't necessarily a screw China situation, imo, because count however you want, but we all should either be counting the same way or the media should absolutely stop comparing. Also, China sucks.

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Pescado_Rojo

Pescado_Rojo 19411

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54 minutes ago, mchookem said:

austin area heb?

Made an HEB run today at 11:30. Scored TP, Paper Towels and hand sanitizer, though it's liquid, not the gel kind. I got everything on my grocery list except flour, which I guess is the new TP. HEB has been out the last 3 times I've looked. Parmer/1431 HEB. Mask use was around 50/50, but 100% of those not wearing masks or social distancing worth a shit were boomers. 

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ChiTownDoc

ChiTownDoc 21133

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1 hour ago, Chewbacca said:
5 hours ago, TwiceHorn said:
You probably jest, but I was alone in my car, and alone on my bike.  There were maybe a half dozen cars at the trail/park.  I passed or was passed by maybe four riders, generally maintaining 6 foot distance, face-to-face.
I take this pretty seriously and wouldn't do anything purposely to endanger others.

So it's OK for you to be out, but not everyone else?

Have I told you about my antibodies?   

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ChiTownDoc

ChiTownDoc 21133

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26 minutes ago, CooterBrown said:

Just talked to my neighbor who’s a doctor. He said the test is completely unreliable. They’re seeing a 40% false negative rate. These are just the patients that they then do a CT scan because the symptoms are so persuasive. No idea what the actual false positive rate is if you include those that don’t do any other testing. They had a guy this week that tested negative 6 times until he finally did a scan that showed it in his lungs. He thinks that if it’s already down in your lungs that it’s no longer in your nasal passage for the swab test to be effective.

All the tests aren’t the same.  There’s a shortage of swabs.  When you improvise it can go sideways fast - not deep enough for example.  And save the mom jokes, assholes.  
 

But 40% false negative is NOT what we are thinking in most testing areas...

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Trey3216

Trey3216 15343

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12 minutes ago, KYHorn said:

Regarding the USA death count: I read recently that China has been pretty open about how they're counting their deaths. If you test positive for CV and are on a ventilator, etc, but die of a heart attack, you died of a heart attack, not CV. This isn't necessarily a screw China situation, imo, because count however you want, but we all should either be counting the same way or the media should absolutely stop comparing. Also, China sucks.

China’s been as honest as a Pedo Priest.  Fuck China, and their methods 

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The_Great_Hornsby

The_Great_Hornsby 3236

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22 minutes ago, KYHorn said:

Regarding the USA death count: I read recently that China has been pretty open about how they're counting their deaths. If you test positive for CV and are on a ventilator, etc, but die of a heart attack, you died of a heart attack, not CV. This isn't necessarily a screw China situation, imo, because count however you want, but we all should either be counting the same way or the media should absolutely stop comparing. Also, China sucks.

China also just burns bodies by the thousands and doesn't count the death at all. So there's that too. 

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 105037

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Made an HEB run today at 11:30. Scored TP, Paper Towels and hand sanitizer, though it's liquid, not the gel kind. I got everything on my grocery list except flour, which I guess is the new TP. HEB has been out the last 3 times I've looked. Parmer/1431 HEB. Mask use was around 50/50, but 100% of those not wearing masks or social distancing worth a shit were boomers. 

Seriously, hit a dollar general, Walgreens, or ethnic grocery. You’ll find flour, and avoid the crowd of stupids.

Also, surprising workaround for groceries: Target. Wife went yesterday, and said it was dead. And they had everything we needed.
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The_Great_Hornsby

The_Great_Hornsby 3236

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13 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

All the tests aren’t the same.  There’s a shortage of swabs.  When you improvise it can go sideways fast - not deep enough for example.  And save the mom jokes, assholes.  
 

But 40% false negative is NOT what we are thinking in most testing areas...

40% false negative? Thats completely unrealistic and retarded, and how would that poster even come up with that percentage LOL. Dumb anecdote is dumb. 

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bigcigar

bigcigar 1164

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3 hours ago, bigup2dahorns said:

People are luring Instacart shoppers with big tips -- and then changing them to zero.


https://www.fox5vegas.com/coronavirus/people-are-luring-instacart-shoppers-with-big-tips----and-then-changing-them/article_5e7d24ae-f72e-5c21-94cd-c4b33e6cbfa5.html

Then posting on surly the original receipt claiming they support local

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Guadaloopy

Guadaloopy 10954

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2 hours ago, po elvis said:

That's just fucking disgusting. Total lowlifes. But not sure why anyone would work for instacart or the other gig deliveries when they can file for unemployment and receive an additional $600 a week in top of state unemployment for four months. Make like $900 a week for sitting in your house versus risking your life in the stores.

I know at least in CA that the unemployment for gig workers is off to a very slow start.  It will be weeks before a lot of these people see any money.

I drive a little rideshare from time to time to keep busy (been five weeks since the last time I did).   I’m part of a couple of Facebook groups for drivers.  The number of people who are living day to day, much less paycheck to paycheck, is astounding to me.  These people lose it when they can’t immediately cash out after a ride to fill their gas tank for the next ride.  These are the people that are out doing deliveries - the ones that live on daily income and see no relief coming soon.  

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gmr548

gmr548 16575

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The numbers are accurate but motivation is hard to judge. A lot of places don't have late fees until the 5th. Some people with money may also be trying to wait for a potential rent freeze law as well. There is zero chance any rent freeze will pay back paid rent. Better to not pay if one is coming. 

I doubt there's many people with the means to pay waiting for a rent freeze. The 10+ million we've had laid off in the past few weeks are predominately service industry/retail, and the majority of that group is renters. I'm sure there are a few intentional holdouts but I doubt it's a significant portion of nonpayments.
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gmr548

gmr548 16575

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I’d hate to be a downer here, but I have to think terror cells are watching all of the damage this virus is doing. I wonder how far away we are from terrorists unleashing viruses on us instead of guns and bombs. 
 

That's not a new idea. I'm sure they've explored it. If they were capable of it, it would've happened already. Not to say it never can/will, obviously, but this isn't some ah-ha moment.
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scottsins

scottsins 1966

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5 hours ago, Anastasis said:

This is all correct.  And therefore the answer to his question is "Yes".

The FDA will of course be involved in the regulatory approval process, and the CDC will likely have a significant role in the roll out strategy of a vax as production ramps.  We are setting up a situation where we are going to rush an immunological agent to market, developed during a crisis situation, under a regulatory framework that is highly motivated to turn something out quickly. This will likely be the largest vaccination program in the history of the world since smallpox, unless of course we all get the covids before then.  No room for error, but they will skirt the minimum sample size requires powered to efficacy and not safety. Hundreds of millions of people, if not a billions, will be lining up for vax as soon production is able to ramp. It will require a large and active safety surveillance network to really get a good sense of the safety profile. It's gonna be interesting to watch it all play out.  

So, in other words, we are totally fucked.

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Sgt Hulk

Sgt Hulk 13712

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4 hours ago, bigup2dahorns said:

People are luring Instacart shoppers with big tips -- and then changing them to zero.


https://www.fox5vegas.com/coronavirus/people-are-luring-instacart-shoppers-with-big-tips----and-then-changing-them/article_5e7d24ae-f72e-5c21-94cd-c4b33e6cbfa5.html

i was legit signing up to do this in the area for some extra cash as the wifes hours got cut to zero, then i read you can reduce the tip afterwards  no thanks

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achooloco

achooloco 1067

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4 hours ago, Chewbacca said:
8 hours ago, TwiceHorn said:
You probably jest, but I was alone in my car, and alone on my bike.  There were maybe a half dozen cars at the trail/park.  I passed or was passed by maybe four riders, generally maintaining 6 foot distance, face-to-face.
I take this pretty seriously and wouldn't do anything purposely to endanger others.

So it's OK for you to be out, but not everyone else?

yes? social distancing doesn't mean locked in a closet until this ends. it means as much as possible stay away from people that don't live in your immediate household, at least that is my understanding. 

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Chewbacca

Chewbacca 7765

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yes? social distancing doesn't mean locked in a closet until this ends. it means as much as possible stay away from people that don't live in your immediate household, at least that is my understanding. 
He was upset so many people were out. While he was out.
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InkaUtexas

InkaUtexas 25852

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2 minutes ago, Bevo VIII said:

https://news.yahoo.com/texas-governor-vows-issue-executive-185600728.html


Get ready to rinse and repeat

Fucking dipshit. CR maybe. Don't care. When I started this thread my team was already monitoring for almost a month. For anyone to say this came out of no where is full of shit. Every expert is saying this is wrong. Who the fuck is Abbot listening to? 

One thing we need to stop doing is comparing the US with nations in Europe and start looking at individual states vs. countries. 

Texas is going to be the next Italy/Spain unless we get our shit together. Think warm weather is going to end it? Look at the uptick in SE Asia and how bad Ecuador is getting hit. 

Time for a beer. 

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achooloco

achooloco 1067

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11 minutes ago, Chewbacca said:
13 minutes ago, achooloco said:
yes? social distancing doesn't mean locked in a closet until this ends. it means as much as possible stay away from people that don't live in your immediate household, at least that is my understanding. 

He was upset so many people were out. While he was out.

ah, misread then. my bad

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Iceman

Iceman 2690

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1 hour ago, Deej said:

Driver's shouldn't see the tip before the purchase is complete. How many people get bumped to the back of the line, as well, because some jackass pulled that shit?

That’s fair, but consumers shouldn’t get to rescind their tip, either.

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SizzleChest

SizzleChest 8283

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8 hours ago, Anastasis said:

No room for error, but they will skirt the minimum sample size requires powered to efficacy and not safety. Hundreds of millions of people, if not a billions, will be lining up for vax as soon production is able to ramp. It will require a large and active safety surveillance network to really get a good sense of the safety profile. It's gonna be interesting to watch it all play out.  

And how is this different for most vaccines?  Purely for example, if 0.001% of the population has a Serious Adverse Event due to the vaccine and 0.00001% die, should we not produce the vaccine?

If you are going to make posts like this, at least describe the stats for other vaccines for context and comparative purposes.  And, while you are at it, throw out some descriptions of post-marketing safety surveillance programs for other vaccines.

This vaccine will have as unique a risk-benefit profile as we've perhaps ever witnessed, but you are using language as if this is going to be a totally reckless process.  

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FartingMonk

FartingMonk 3606

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57 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Fucking dipshit. CR maybe. Don't care. When I started this thread my team was already monitoring for almost a month. For anyone to say this came out of no where is full of shit. Every expert is saying this is wrong. Who the fuck is Abbot listening to? 

One thing we need to stop doing is comparing the US with nations in Europe and start looking at individual states vs. countries. 

Texas is going to be the next Italy/Spain unless we get our shit together. Think warm weather is going to end it? Look at the uptick in SE Asia and how bad Ecuador is getting hit. 

Time for a beer. 

I don't know man.  I'm beginning to wonder if we haven't peaked yet.  Even doctors are wondering if what are killing people are their treatment methods.  The reports of lungs exploding are now actually being thought to be caused by putting people on ventilators too fast.  That may be why Cuomo isn't begging for ventilators anymore.  They are seeing less aggressive ventilator treatment may be more effective.  Hell for Houston where I live.  We didn't shut down the rodeo until March 12.  It's a month later.  How is all of Houston not sick or dead by now.  You know of someone who knows someone who was at the rodeo and those someone's went to a bar or a club afterwards.  

Edited by FartingMonk
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bullzak

bullzak 413

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At Rush in Chicago they are looking at having people lie on their stomachs for 16 hours with oxygen as an alternative to vents. 

Kinda interesting old school stuff. Hope it works. 

Certainly the vent hasn't been a magic bullet. 

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michaelpshayes

michaelpshayes 417

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1 minute ago, Bash Riprock said:

14 deaths in Lubbock County. Nursing home got hit hard. Apparently nurses that worked at this certain nursing home work at others in town. 

270 cases and most people I know are going on like normal and think it’s a joke....”it’s only old people, I don’t feel sick” ....city is going to be good test case for how much this going to spread over the next week 

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Anastasis

Anastasis 23454

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2 minutes ago, SizzleChest said:

This vaccine will have as unique a risk-benefit profile as we've perhaps ever witnessed, but you are using language as if this is going to be a totally reckless process.  

Simmer down pharma lawyer. I didn't say anything was totally reckless.  One of the things that I actually said was "Our ace in the hole in this is the pharmaceutical industrial complex.  They have scores of extremely capable scientists, ranging from bench to trialists. Companies are all running at this in parallel..."

Nothing you quoted in that post was wrong. It is completely accurate to say that the trials will be powered to efficacy, not safety. Yes, just like every other vax and drug registration trial.  And I don't think that I really need to provide you with the examples of the post-approval withdrawals due to the resultant blind spots in the safety assessments.  It's the reality of the process.  Of course, the process will play out in this case with unprecedented timeline and expectation pressure, and an unprecedented demand upon approval. There is literally no similar context for this. 

You surely recognize that the development and testing of the COVID vaccine will be unlike any other vax development in modern history. People are talking about September roll out and shit now. I am not worried about the 0.001%, I am worried about the 0.1%, or god forbid the 1% SAE. And the indications from animal models that a COV vax may in some cases actually make things worse. Ramping from testing in 1k or 10k or even 50k to administration in 150MM or 1B in compressed time frame is going to be quite interesting. 

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Bash Riprock

Bash Riprock 1695

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270 cases and most people I know are going on like normal and think it’s a joke....”it’s only old people, I don’t feel sick” ....city is going to be good test case for how much this going to spread over the next week 

My cousin who is a young preacher in Wolfforth spouting off how stupid all this is. He is why I won't get on the Facebook.

 

Speaking of Wolfforth Evie Mae's is KILLING it with their curbside pickup. 3 lines of cars at least 30 deep in each line. 

 

 

 

 

 

e196d1583337142d9ab8a18fcbaa1ebb.jpg

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