Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

[Dahobbs 17625]

New York's and New Jersey's new deaths look to be way down today. Hopefully that is the start of a trend and not the result of Sunday/Monday lowered reporting. 

[MNLonghornFUKM 8817]

Well, I'm sorry, but that's ridiculous.  I don't care about the morons.  They're unreachable.  They're gonna do what they're gonna do.  Telling them things are not all that bad when we have no information that suggests this is the case is just as likely to make things worse as it is to make them better.
Furthermore, past data fail to account for stressed healthcare facilities, which implies that the numbers are going to get WORSE, and soon.
Nope, I'll deal in the data as they are presented.  You're more than welcome to hope that the mortality growth rate suddenly declines just because it did in other countries (with their attendant sketchy reporting).  I'll just look at the curves, thank you very much. Accordingly, I'm calling for roughly 14,000 new deaths per day for the next 2 days, as we reach the goal I set for our country on April 1 of reaching 50,000 deaths by April 15. 

You are such a piece of fucking shit /typical response from somebody who has it dialed up ready to post

[Buzzrock 14926]

I'm not sure they are gonna get us killed, I'm just using the opportunity to denigrate small town folk on general principle.

From a co-worker who lives an hour outside of Chattanooga: she says she sees no one in PPE where she lives, but in Chattanooga everyone is gloved and masked up. Out in the country people are getting made fun of for wearing PPE. It’s business as usual there.

[Buzzrock 14926]

Dupe

[closetojumping 62760]

For those interested in where things do actually stand for Texas compared to the most recent forecast from one of the models referenced frequently here, our hospital beds used for corona is currently less than half of their forecast. I'd assume ICU usage is also below their forecast substantially as well. 

Here's the forecast: https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/texas (According to their numbers, we should be in "need" of 2667 beds as of today for the covids)

Here's the Texas DHS site with data on "current" hospitalization numbers: https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/ed483ecd702b4298ab01e8b9cafc8b83 (1167 beds are currently being used in Texas for the covids)

 

[MNLonghornFUKM 8817]

For those interested in where things do actually stand for Texas compared to the most recent forecast from one of the models referenced frequently here, our hospital beds used for corona is currently less than half of their forecast. I'd assume ICU usage is also below their forecast substantially as well. 
Here's the forecast: https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/texas (According to their numbers, we should be in "need" of 2667 beds as of today for the covids)
Here's the Texas DHS site with data on "current" hospitalization numbers: https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/ed483ecd702b4298ab01e8b9cafc8b83 (1167 beds are currently being used in Texas for the covids)
 

COVID-19.healthdata does a shit job of updating their promising website. We’re rolling on 4 days without an update

[Loco 3753]

This is how you know airline traffic has cratered

 

[G650 14268]

Just now, Loco said:

This is how you know airline traffic has cratered

 

Those assholes cause all sorts of mayhem over at Dania Cut and Derecktors.

[MNLonghornFUKM 8817]

This is how you know airline traffic has cratered
 

When the hell did you guys get wild monkeys?

[Cheeseweasel 26438]

12 Monkeys was a documentary!

[DaysOff 7959]

True, but it's Florida. Not uncommon to see gators stroll across the taxiway on Orlando.

 

 

[Royalfan5 2354]

France is starting to reopen schools on a rolling basis May 11th. 

[Loco 3753]

Just now, MNLonghornFUKM said:

When the hell did you guys get wild monkeys?

I think the 50's  escaped from a medical lab IIRC

2 minutes ago, G650 said:

Those assholes cause all sorts of mayhem over at Dania Cut and Derecktors.

Lulz  go have a beer @ LauderAle , they are there sometimes too.  C Porter is my recommendation

[millhouse 2615]

There aren't as many bags for them to load, ofcourse they're going to go roaming

[MNLonghornFUKM 8817]

Today is NYs first sub 6000 case day since March 29th

[wild_turkey 3168]

12 hours ago, tx 3 putt said:

it's at the point of opening everything up and letting it play out (for better or worst). texas is opening up before May 3. would that put a second wave peaking around memorial day ?

Is there ever going to be a good point at which to open things back up?

Social distancing has been successful in flattening the curve and keeping the healthcare system from getting overwhelmed in most places, but it's unlikely that we ever eradicate this virus, so there will almost certainly be new outbreaks and hot spots once things start to reopen.

Are we able to come to terms with that? Can we open things slowly and instruct the elderly and high risk people to continue using strong precautions any time they leave the house?

The alternative is to continue stay-at-home orders until a proven medical treatment or vaccine is available. We have lots of medication trials in progress but nothing is jumping out as a miracle cure so far. A vaccine is at least 9 months away and that's optimistic. It seems almost impossible to keep things shut down for that long, and doing so may ruin more lives than COVID itself.

So it seems that our only path forward is to reopen the country before we truly have a medical solution. Whether that is May 1, June 1, or even September 1, it will result in new cases and more deaths. It will seem too soon to many people and too late to many others, but what other choice do we really have?

[G650 14268]

2 minutes ago, Loco said:

I think the 50's  escaped from a medical lab IIRC

Lulz  go have a beer @ LauderAle , they are there sometimes too.  C Porter is my recommendation

Somehow I always get drug over to Bimini Bay when I'm in that hood.

[achooloco 1072]

47 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

Accordingly, I'm calling for roughly 14,000 new deaths per day for the next 2 days, as we reach the goal I set for our country on April 1 of reaching 50,000 deaths by April 15. 

something something is that tuesday or wednesday something something calendars are hard for ctj...

[Neonmoon 38129]

I enjoy the data science fights. They bring a certain sense of petty to the apocalypse that I appreciate. 

[closetojumping 62760]

3 minutes ago, achooloco said:

something something is that tuesday or wednesday something something calendars are hard for ctj...

"We'll hit that # before the 15th."

[Cheeseweasel 26438]

3 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

I enjoy the data science fights. They bring a certain sense of petty to the apocalypse that I appreciate. 

[gmr548 16584]

Makes you wonder if big cities are going to lose some draw after this.

Unlikely. Cities are where the jobs are. People move for work. Hundreds, thousands of years on that trendline. I could maybe see some well off older folks with 5-10 years left in the workforce who now realize thru don't need to be in the office, or have bosses that realize that, accelerate retirement plans to move out of town.

Yeah, I'm gonna call bullshit on this. 
Small town America keeps social distances naturally.  Everyone likes their personal space and most people have houses and yards if not large pieces of property.  We don't live right on top of each other like happens in cities.  The small town where my relatives live has a total of 2 cases in the entire county (out of 20,000) and the larger city where I live has less than 350 cases and 7 total deaths out of a total of approximately 500,000 people in this county and the neighboring one.  And it isn't lack of testing resulting in those numbers.
People here are taking it serious at different levels, but there is still a lot of the things going on that brings angst on this thread.  As I mentioned upthread, my wife works at the largest hospital for 100 miles in any direction and it is a ghost town.
It may explode here too, but it won't be this month.  Just like everything else in the world, small towns will be the last ones to get it.

You can count on yout hands the amount of dense American cities where "living on top of each other" is an apt discription. Most of urban America is very suburban in design. And American suburbia is the most antisocial form of living.

It's not like this thing transmits wildly to someone living next door. You'd see whole apartment complexes becoming covid hot zones. Large crowds are the main drivers. Obviously more of those in large cities, especially the few with high transit use, but it's not like small towns don't have crowded restaurants, bars, coffee shops, etc. A crowded HS football game in the fall can get the job done just as well in a rural area as an urban area. You're right that rural areas will be last because obviously the disease is first imported in areas with major airports and kind of filters out from there.

Texas hospitals large and small have been making efforts to clear out. Both good and bad associated with that, obviously. From what I've seen, Texas isn't projected to experience a big hospital overrun this spring/summer with distancing measures being implemented, which is good, but of course there has been so little testing here it's hard to be confident of anything. And of course, broadly lifting restrictions could have a really bad result. Urban or rural, it's hard to know what's going on in TX because data is so limited. Hopefully things stay calm for your wife's hospital - appreciate the insight and hopeb y'all stay healthy.

[gmr548 16584]

This is how you know airline traffic has cratered
 

Of course that's Florida.

[South Austin 52521]

2 hours ago, workswithseed said:

Makes you wonder if big cities are going to lose some draw after this.

I wish we could all live in the mountains at high altitude. That's where I see myself in five years.

[BradInATX 9208]

I enjoy the data science fights. They bring a certain sense of petty to the apocalypse that I appreciate. 

Very little of anything happening here is data science.

 

 

[Wulaw Horn 19126]

1 hour ago, closetojumping said:

Well, I'm sorry, but that's ridiculous.  I don't care about the morons.  They're unreachable.  They're gonna do what they're gonna do.  Telling them things are not all that bad when we have no information that suggests this is the case is just as likely to make things worse as it is to make them better.

Furthermore, past data fail to account for stressed healthcare facilities, which implies that the numbers are going to get WORSE, and soon.

Nope, I'll deal in the data as they are presented.  You're more than welcome to hope that the mortality growth rate suddenly declines just because it did in other countries (with their attendant sketchy reporting).  I'll just look at the curves, thank you very much. Accordingly, I'm calling for roughly 14,000 new deaths per day for the next 2 days, as we reach the goal I set for our country on April 1 of reaching 50,000 deaths by April 15. 

Such a dickhead while being so so correct. Truly the best of the Shag/surl. Well done. 

 

Btw- I made a bet with one of the biggest alarmists- 50k dead by April 15 and I’d give $1000 to his covid charity of choice- not close to 50k dead by then and he’d have to follow me around the surl as my hype man- liking all my posts and telling any detractors not to argue with me bc I know things (so basically like my own personal Sydney Carton). 

Pretty sure there will now be 2 of us with a hype man on here in a day or two. 

Edited April 13, 2020 by Wulaw Horn

[Cheeseweasel 26438]

Just now, BradInATX said:

Very little of anything happening here is data science.
Source: am data scientist

Truth. This calls for a disaster scientist.

[Trey3216 15349]

48 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Is that a euphemism for a Vic thread I don't know about?

That would be Pork Packing Pants.  

[InkaUtexas 26007]

 

[closetojumping 62760]

6 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

Unlikely. Cities are where the jobs are. People move for work. Hundreds, thousands of years on that trendline. I could maybe see some well off older folks with 5-10 years left in the workforce who now realize thru don't need to be in the office, or have bosses that realize that, accelerate retirement plans to move out of town.



You can count on yout hands the amount of dense American cities where "living on top of each other" is an apt discription. Most of urban America is very suburban in design. And American suburbia is the most antisocial form of living.

It's not like this thing transmits wildly to someone living next door. You'd see whole apartment complexes becoming covid hot zones. Large crowds are the main drivers. Obviously more of those in large cities, especially the few with high transit use, but it's not like small towns don't have crowded restaurants, bars, coffee shops, etc. A crowded HS football game in the fall can get the job done just as well in a rural area as an urban area. You're right that rural areas will be last because obviously the disease is first imported in areas with major airports and kind of filters out from there.

Texas hospitals large and small have been making efforts to clear out. Both good and bad associated with that, obviously. From what I've seen, Texas isn't projected to experience a big hospital overrun this spring/summer with distancing measures being implemented, which is good, but of course there has been so little testing here it's hard to be confident of anything. And of course, broadly lifting restrictions could have a really bad result. Urban or rural, it's hard to know what's going on in TX because data is so limited. Hopefully things stay calm for your wife's hospital - appreciate the insight and hopeb y'all stay healthy.

 

The tests! The tests! We've got to have more tests!

So Texas has tested and reported on 133,226 people in a state of roughly 29,000,000 for a testing rate of .46%. 

10.4% of those so far tested has proven positive in Texas. The people who have been tested are the most likely people to actually be infected, given the demographics most places in Texas required for a test in the March/early April period. 

Tests are visible on a county by county basis within the state. Many counties and cities also are posting their own dashboards. 

Can you give some background on what kind of numbers and data we need to see from here before we can be "confident of anything"? I'm curious as to what the target is for various folks that are bothered by the perceived dearth in testing. If it isn't that and it's the actual availability of testing, that would be good to know also. 

I'm not taking a position that Texas has covered itself in glory with its approach on testing. I do think we have enough to know that, frankly, not a ton of people have it here and those that do have inventory available at hospitals in order to be treated. I fail to see why, with appropriate guidelines, restrictions, and tracking/treating of new infections, we can't take an approach in the not too distant future to opening up more of the economy. Nonetheless, it's clear others don't see it that way and it would be productive to understand how the thinking on testing is tying into that. 

[closetojumping 62760]

16 minutes ago, South Austin said:

I wish we could all live in the mountains at high altitude. That's where I see myself in five years.

Why don't you get a horse and live in the mountains some place and don't bother anybody? 

[GreenspointTexas 9662]

29 minutes ago, wild_turkey said:

Is there ever going to be a good point at which to open things back up?

Social distancing has been successful in flattening the curve and keeping the healthcare system from getting overwhelmed in most places, but it's unlikely that we ever eradicate this virus, so there will almost certainly be new outbreaks and hot spots once things start to reopen.

Are we able to come to terms with that? Can we open things slowly and instruct the elderly and high risk people to continue using strong precautions any time they leave the house?

The alternative is to continue stay-at-home orders until a proven medical treatment or vaccine is available. We have lots of medication trials in progress but nothing is jumping out as a miracle cure so far. A vaccine is at least 9 months away and that's optimistic. It seems almost impossible to keep things shut down for that long, and doing so may ruin more lives than COVID itself.

So it seems that our only path forward is to reopen the country before we truly have a medical solution. Whether that is May 1, June 1, or even September 1, it will result in new cases and more deaths. It will seem too soon to many people and too late to many others, but what other choice do we really have?

The longer we can keep shit closed during this first round the better. We need to keep shit closed until the absolute breaking point. Reopening things in a few weeks will lead to another lockdown in June, and then another in August, etc etc. Unemployment will be at least 20% by fall

Im losing 20k a month not working but im more than fine to sit on my ass if it means we are actually trying to quash this thing. Locking down for only a month is not gonna do shit in the long term for businesses and the  economy. 

[South Austin 52521]

3 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

Why don't you get a horse and live in the mountains some place and don't bother anybody? 

[bschoolprof 6268]

35 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

Today is NYs first sub 6000 case day since March 29th

This is great news and has been expected given favorable trends in hospitalizations.  

[Loco 3753]

35 minutes ago, G650 said:

Somehow I always get drug over to Bimini Bay when I'm in that hood.

get tested!

[Digdogger 1344]

27 minutes ago, South Austin said:

I wish we could all live in the mountains at high altitude. That's where I see myself in five years.

[BurntOrange&White 39934]

San Antonio

772 cases
30 deaths

[South Austin 52521]

2 minutes ago, Bevo VIII said:

San Antonio

772 cases
30 deaths

Wow.  That's a 2,573% death rate!

Wait, I think I may have divided wrong. 

[Trey3216 15349]

47 minutes ago, DaysOff said:

True, but it's Florida. Not uncommon to say gators stroll across the taxiway on Orlando.

Yep.  Dad used to tell me about being stationed in FL before his Senior Trip to Da Nang and they’d have to go out to the end of the runway every day around 4:00 to coax a 12-13 foot gator off the end.  

[Onboard 2.0 9083]

52 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

When the hell did you guys get wild monkeys?

It's this guy....

[Skipper 6140]

12 minutes ago, GreenspointTexas said:

The longer we can keep shit closed during this first round the better. We need to keep shit closed until the absolute breaking point. Reopening things in a few weeks will lead to another lockdown in June, and then another in August, etc etc. Unemployment will be at least 20% by fall

 

Based on your prediction accuracy, it probably makes sense to declare Texas open for business effective tomorrow.

[Incredulity 11678]

1 minute ago, Skipper said:

Based on your prediction accuracy, it probably makes sense to declare Texas open for business effective tomorrow.

Ballgame?

[Cheeseweasel 26438]

22 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

Why don't you get a horse and live in the mountains some place and don't bother anybody? 

[dcar00 14306]

1 hour ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

When the hell did you guys get wild monkeys?

Florida has wild monkeys has to go in the top of 5 of "ten things I learned from this thread". probably just ahead of "docs really like measuring their dicks with each other"

[SydneyCarton 48112]

Is this bad? This seems like it could be bad. For those not clicking the link, basically says Corona has similarities to HIV in that it can attack the T-Cells. 

 

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3079443/coronavirus-could-target-immune-system-targeting-protective

 

But the information seems to plug in some holes as to why 80% of the people who get infected seem to shrug it off. It doesn't help identifying the underlying reasons for that, but it's another step towards confirming there seem to be some triggers afoot in regards to why some get really, really sick. 

I'm not sure I trust a chinese newspaper, even if it is as seen as the most honest and trustworthy newspaper in China. Because who knows what that means. 

[South Austin 52521]

Coronavirus is turning out to be a real asshole.

[dcar00 14306]

49 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

The tests! The tests! We've got to have more tests!

So Texas has tested and reported on 133,226 people in a state of roughly 29,000,000 for a testing rate of .46%. 

10.4% of those so far tested has proven positive in Texas. The people who have been tested are the most likely people to actually be infected, given the demographics most places in Texas required for a test in the March/early April period. 

Tests are visible on a county by county basis within the state. Many counties and cities also are posting their own dashboards. 

Can you give some background on what kind of numbers and data we need to see from here before we can be "confident of anything"? I'm curious as to what the target is for various folks that are bothered by the perceived dearth in testing. If it isn't that and it's the actual availability of testing, that would be good to know also. 

I'm not taking a position that Texas has covered itself in glory with its approach on testing. I do think we have enough to know that, frankly, not a ton of people have it here and those that do have inventory available at hospitals in order to be treated. I fail to see why, with appropriate guidelines, restrictions, and tracking/treating of new infections, we can't take an approach in the not too distant future to opening up more of the economy. Nonetheless, it's clear others don't see it that way and it would be productive to understand how the thinking on testing is tying into that. 

Is this where I note "If we can save just one life it will have been worth it"?

[Sgt Hulk 13806]

I've got this chart here that shows zillions will be dead at this rate

[Sgt Hulk 13806]

4 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Is this bad? This seems like it could be bad. For those not clicking the link, basically says Corona has similarities to HIV in that it can attack the T-Cells. 

 

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3079443/coronavirus-could-target-immune-system-targeting-protective

 

But the information seems to plug in some holes as to why 80% of the people who get infected seem to shrug it off. It doesn't help identifying the underlying reasons for that, but it's another step towards confirming there seem to be some triggers afoot in regards to why some get really, really sick. 

I'm not sure I trust a chinese newspaper, even if it is as seen as the most honest and trustworthy newspaper in China. Because who knows what that means. 

I stopped reading at China / society

[Schulz2.0 28970]

47 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

Why don't you get a horse and live in the mountains some place and don't bother anybody?