Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

[EuroHorn 3271]

3 minutes ago, Viper said:

going to be awkward until that catches on

 

[Loco 3754]

Guys I got an idea about a possible replacement for sports

 

https://www.yahoo.com/news/starving-angry-cannibalistic-americas-rats-083044613.html

[Trey3216 15373]

22 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

can you get one of your asymptotic friends to do a blood transfusion with me when they are over it?  I'm available week of the 20th

I might be able to find a few friends schooled in the world of diction to show you the difference between asymptomatic and asymptotic 

[MC Fresh Breath 4074]

So, I read a brief story about a grocery worker who died from this at age 27.  Sadly, there is also the story of a sailor from the USS Theodore Roosevelt dying.  I don't know, but would take a guess the sailor is young and in good shape.  Knock on wood, but of all the NBA players who were in the news a while back seem to have survived so far. The sailor seemed to go from being monitored twice a day to "unresponsive."  That's fast. 

Just strange to me, the utter randomness of this thing.  All the recent deaths I read about in Oregon where folks in their 90's.

 

[EuroHorn 3271]

11 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

I thought we were taking Spain +France+UK+Germany+Italy and then comparing it to America.

Original comment was regarding Italy only 

[Hate 20146]

I don't see much of a reason to open schools with such little time left in the school year.  My wife works in a school as an SLP and she is being expected to work her usual caseload as if things were "normal".  My son (6th grade) has maybe an hour of schoolwork a day.  For math, they sent out an email that said they will not be teaching any new concepts, but will be going back over things they've learned this year to try to keep them as up to date as possible.  The next school year is going to be interesting without a doubt. 

Edited April 13, 2020 by Hate

[Trey3216 15373]

13 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

I thought we were taking Spain +France+UK+Germany+Italy and then comparing it to America.

We should be.  Higher population, fewer cases and fewer deaths than those countries combined. 

[dcar00 14378]

3 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

I might be able to find a few friends schooled in the world of diction to show you the difference between asymptomatic and asymptotic 

what about asymmetric?

[MNLonghornFUKM 8822]

IHME just updated

+6000 US deaths by aug 4.


I think this model sucks.

[ChiTownDoc 21175]

4 minutes ago, Longhorn94 said:

somewhat related: took two clients to the Salt Bae guy's restaurant in NYC in February. i cant imagine doing that now. crazy shift in thinking.

I have done most of his places.  The quality of the food has tanked from when he only had a couple places but the titties keep me coming back.  Amazing talent every time...

[Trey3216 15373]

10 minutes ago, EuroHorn said:

Throw in China and they add in 3k. Which is a joke.  Hard to believe cities like Shanghai and Guangzhou were pretty much unscathed 

Narrator: “They weren’t” 

[ShaggyBevo RIP 3868]

38 minutes ago, Hate said:

I don't disagree with what you are saying, but I also think there are a lot of people that would be at a bar or restaurant tonight if the SIP was lifted today at 5 pm. 

Since there is nothing else to do really, I will predict the "opening" to go something like this:

1.  gloves and masks are going to be required by servers and bartenders and be optional for patrons.  Restaurants and bars will only be allowed to have 50% occupancy.

2.  employees go back to work but must wear gloves and masks.  There may also be a system in place to check temperatures daily to ensure anyone with a fever does not come into the building. 

3. large gatherings will be prevented through the fall.  Games might be played and televised (I'm not sure this can realistically happen), but fans will not be allowed to go to the games. 

4.  handshakes are no longer the accepted greeting.  I don't think the US will adopt the bow, but some other form of greeting will become the custom.

1 - kinda hard to eat and drink with a mask on. 

4. Live long and shocker

 

Edited April 13, 2020 by ShaggyBevo RIP

[stork642 4500]

2 hours ago, JBJ said:

But you also need some degree of community spread to start getting through this. It's sounds funny, but we want a certain amount of people to get sick and get passed it.  Every week that our hospitals are slow is a week that we've spent in quarantine for nothing but layoffs, furlows, and compromised retirement accounts.  The places worse off (health and economy-wise) will be the ones that appear to be in excellent shape through the spring, but get demolished by the second wave because they have no community resistance. 

I don’t think we can appreciate how many people have contracted this and have already recovered.  We have some friends (family of eight) and turns out the whole family got it back in February/March but just found out last week.  The whole family took turns, over a months time, with high fever cough etc but none too serious until the last member to get it began have breathing issues and was taken to the hospital and was diagnosed with CV.  I think there is much more than we realize.  

[Trey3216 15373]

2 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

what about asymmetric?

Hell, why not.   

[Coelenterate Fuccboi 13120]

1 hour ago, Sgt Hulk said:

I've got this chart here that shows zillions will be dead at this rate

Eventually, we’ll all die.

[Trey3216 15373]

2 minutes ago, stork642 said:

I don’t think we can appreciate how many people have contracted this and have already recovered.  We have some friends (family of eight) and turns out the whole family got it back in February/March but just found out last week.  The whole family took turns, over a months time, with high fever cough etc but none too serious until the last member to get it began have breathing issues and was taken to the hospital and was diagnosed with CV.  I think there is much more than we realize.  

Quite likely.   We also have a pretty damn well-explained sample size for a statistical study, and I imagine we could extrapolate fairly accurately across the spectrum at this point.  

[Trey3216 15373]

2 minutes ago, Casual Encounter said:

Eventually, we’ll all die.

But will we have ever lived?

Edited April 13, 2020 by Trey3216

[closetojumping 62883]

 

1 hour ago, Cheeseweasel said:

That one went right by you, cheese.

1 hour ago, Schulz2.0 said:

My man. Dirty Work is an underappreciated movie. The Don Rickles bit that I quoted, and this scene, in particular. 

50 minutes ago, F250 said:

I agree, so what is the plan? Surely someone has a fucking plan for this by now, right?

 

Apparently, no? 

42 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

Part of the problem with "opening up the economy" is that a whole hell of a lot of people aren't going to want to because of anxiety and fear. They are going to stay home and not spend money even if the economy is "open" for business. A lot of the same people are going to balk at returning to work until they are convinced their co-workers have all been tested.

Opening up the economy is going to be much easier said than done.

Much like "shutting things down" wasn't a comprehensive approach, but instead a steady drumbeat of variables being removed from the equation daily/weekly, so too will "opening up the economy".

No one sane is calling for us acting like everything is back to normal. I'd assume seeing little things here and there, such as haircut places at half capacity, and parks for gatherings of less than 25, start to get peppered in and building up, and people learning how to manage each interaction, will be the way or could be the way.

In any event, how does more testing change any of that? If you assume that those showing signs have straightforward access to testing now in Texas, how many more hundreds of thousands need to be tested in order to give you the confidence you need in order to go get a haircut in a virtually empty barbershop or salon?

[dcar00 14378]

2 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

IHME just updated

+6000 US deaths by aug 4.


I think this model sucks.

ya think?  once they saw the numbers they had to adjust big time.  now they will bounce around to make it look like the model is responding/know something  and assuming first wave and second wave are similar in size.

[dcar00 14378]

4 minutes ago, stork642 said:

I don’t think we can appreciate how many people have contracted this and have already recovered.  We have some friends (family of eight) and turns out the whole family got it back in February/March but just found out last week.  The whole family took turns, over a months time, with high fever cough etc but none too serious until the last member to get it began have breathing issues and was taken to the hospital and was diagnosed with CV.  I think there is much more than we realize.  

probably close to 20M at this point.

[MNLonghornFUKM 8822]

ya think?  once they saw the numbers they had to adjust big time.  now they will bounce around to make it look like the model is responding/know something  and assuming first wave and second wave are similar in size.

Sucks. Promising because it gave projections that were easy to read but yea, pretty unreliable

[DaysOff 7976]

What if we all wore masks and didn't sell any middle seats would y'all buy an airplane ride? It'd be really cool if you did.

[Hate 20146]

1 minute ago, closetojumping said:

In any event, how does more testing change any of that? If you assume that those showing signs have straightforward access to testing now in Texas, how many more hundreds of thousands need to be tested in order to give you the confidence you need in order to go get a haircut in a virtually empty barbershop or salon?

In reality, wouldn't someone have to be tested after every single encounter with anyone not known to have the antibodies? 

[Hate 20146]

Just now, DaysOff said:

What if we all wore masks and didn't sell any middle seats would y'all buy an airplane ride? It'd be really cool if you did.

No offense and I hope it works out for you and the entire industry, but I can't imagine a worse place to be than an airplane right now.

[Loco 3754]

3 minutes ago, Hate said:

No offense and I hope it works out for you and the entire industry, but I can't imagine a worse place to be than an airplane right now.

cruise ship?

[DaysOff 7976]

Exactly. Nobody going on an airplane ride for awhile. Luckily we borrowed from our great grandchildren and I'm sitting at home on full pay and haven't flown in a month. It's only money and I'll never meet the little fuckers anyway.

[Surly Bevo 25178]

4 minutes ago, Hate said:

No offense and I hope it works out for you and the entire industry, but I can't imagine a worse place to be than an airplane right now.

737Max with a Bobby Batronic blacklisted pilot packed nut to butt doesn't sound fun?

Edited April 13, 2020 by Surly Bevo

[workswithseed 2119]

6 minutes ago, DaysOff said:

What if we all wore masks and didn't sell any middle seats would y'all buy an airplane ride? It'd be really cool if you did.

Too many days off or something?

Edited April 13, 2020 by workswithseed
To too

[SydneyCarton 48203]

I saw some folks this weekend railing against the fascism involved in the idea of making folks get antibody tests and then giving them a certificate/badge on their phones for if they’ve passed. Just hundreds of comments on a Channel 2 website article. Equating it to wearing a Jewish star. Just blows my mind. And so much anger in the comments.  I don’t think we’ve focused that much on the percentage of people who will refuse to get tested period in any capacity. 

[Dahobbs 17694]

12 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

IHME just updated

+6000 US deaths by aug 4.


I think this model sucks.

It is in the nature of the model they used. It is an interesting approach, but I think not common in the field for precisely some of the reasons we are seeing. It is trying to fit new data on an existing pattern. It depends very heavily on assumptions regarding the pattern of the disease as opposed to modeling it at a lower level. It does allow you to get away from having to make assumptions about the underlying disease (e.g., IFR), but if the data your relying upon for the pattern isn't accurate (e.g., the Chinese data) or not applicable to the new data set, then your results are going to be junk. 

[DaysOff 7976]

Too many days off or something?

Getting there. Would never admit it to my wife.

[G650 14278]

33 minutes ago, Drew said:

My wife works for BS&W in an office setting.  She's still working normal hours every day.

I've still been working 6 days a week at a Used Car Dealer that my family owns, because we, for some ungodly reason, are considered essential.  Guess what? No only are people still making their payments and we seem just as busy as any other time...there are STILL people looking at, and buying cars right now.

Like no one here is even the slightest bit worried.  

I understand that schools, and bars, and most office buildings are shut down.  But I still don't see the effect of any type of shut down/lock down in any way.  I'm shocked that neither my wife, or myself, have not gotten sick yet.

 

Exactly how many more times are you going to post this.

[Neonmoon 38130]

I think the need for more testing is asymptomatic carriers. You would hope that anyone who doesn't feel well will go get tested or self isolate. Assuming people followed that golden rule, what about the asymptomatic carriers who go around spreading it. They don't feel sick so how would they know to get tested? I think the "get tested" mantra should be extended to anyone who feels sick, or has been in contact with anyone who has said they were sick. But none of that is going to happen soo....

I think we will do a soft open and hope shit doesn't spiral out of control. 

[Onboard 2.0 9083]

59 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

well based on the consensus of this thread that we have millions of idiots in the hinterlands, and if it only takes one, I am going to declare......BALLGAME!

If we have millions of idiots in the hinter lands multiply that in cities.  Statistics how do they work.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13528]

23 minutes ago, Hate said:

I don't see much of a reason to open schools with such little time left in the school year.  My wife works in a school as an SLP and she is being expected to work her usual caseload as if things were "normal".  My son (6th grade) has maybe an hour of schoolwork a day.  For math, they sent out an email that said they will not be teaching any new concepts, but will be going back over things they've learned this year to try to keep them as up to date as possible.  The next school year is going to be interesting without a doubt. 

I assume that schools are just going to push every kid to the next grade? Then in the Fall, let each teacher run a modified lesson plan to repeat the last few months of the previous grade and then quickly go through the next year.

[Hate 20146]

5 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

I saw some folks this weekend railing against the fascism involved in the idea of making folks get antibody tests and then giving them a certificate/badge on their phones for if they’ve passed. Just hundreds of comments on a Channel 2 website article. Equating it to wearing a Jewish star. Just blows my mind. And so much anger in the comments.  I don’t think we’ve focused that much on the percentage of people who will refuse to get tested period in any capacity. 

I mentioned this a few days ago.  I had a conversation through FB with some friends that feel this exact way.  As far as I know, they aren't anti-vaccers, but they are anti-whatever the government will suggest as far as this virus goes.  It's ridiculous. 

[closetojumping 62883]

4 minutes ago, Hate said:

In reality, wouldn't someone have to be tested after every single encounter with anyone not known to have the antibodies? 

I think it would be great if corona also brought with it some sort of mark of the beast so I could stop sprinting off to my drive-thru testing site after the mailman has the audacity to keep showing up each day. If catching it sort of just manifested in some kind of horn growing out of the center of your forehead, or maybe pockmarks all over your body, or maybe made women's boobs grow by a cup size or two, figuring this shit out would be a lot easier.

[MNLonghornFUKM 8822]

What if we all wore masks and didn't sell any middle seats would y'all buy an airplane ride? It'd be really cool if you did.

Depends if passengers who recline would be denied seats

[Homesickhorn 2208]

Took me awhile to catch up to this thread, and SIAP, but did y'all see where the Houston Rodeo was cancelled?

[El Diablo 4232]

People who test positive for antibodies could wear a big red "A".

[MNLonghornFUKM 8822]

It is in the nature of the model they used. It is an interesting approach, but I think not common in the field for precisely some of the reasons we are seeing. It is trying to fit new data on an existing pattern. It depends very heavily on assumptions regarding the pattern of the disease as opposed to modeling it at a lower level. It does allow you to get away from having to make assumptions about the underlying disease (e.g., IFR), but if the data your relying upon for the pattern isn't accurate (e.g., the Chinese data) or not applicable to the new data set, then your results are going to be junk. 

I agree. I like it because it’s clean, easy to navigate and read. Just not going to put any stock into it

[Knoxtnhorn 6066]

31 minutes ago, Hate said:

I don't see much of a reason to open schools with such little time left in the school year.  My wife works in a school as an SLP and she is being expected to work her usual caseload as if things were "normal".  My son (6th grade) has maybe an hour of schoolwork a day.  For math, they sent out an email that said they will not be teaching any new concepts, but will be going back over things they've learned this year to try to keep them as up to date as possible.  The next school year is going to be interesting without a doubt. 

I'm a teacher.  My guess is that we're trying to get as many people as comfortable as possible with technology at the moment.  Then, when/if we get locked down again in the fall, the transition should be seamless.  

[MNLonghornFUKM 8822]

People who test positive for antibodies could wear a big red "A".

I’m a fan of the scarlet letter approach

[workswithseed 2119]

2 minutes ago, El Diablo said:

People who test positive for antibodies could wear a big red "A".

Make it scarlet 

[NeverMarryAStripper 21943]

While they're at it they should make people with STDs wear an STD on their forehead. It would make dating easier. 

[Modessit 5606]

  Sadly, there is also the story of a sailor from the USS Theodore Roosevelt dying.  I don't know, but would take a guess the sailor is young and in good shape.  The sailor seemed to go from being monitored twice a day to "unresponsive."  That's fast. 
Just strange to me,
 

Well, it IS the Navy. They're the most likely to have out of shape members as they need to be able to float if they fall overboard. But seriously, when I was in if I ever saw someone who was kind of chubby but was in the military it was automatically assumed that they were in the Navy. And it always seemed they smoked more than the other branches. Of course, this was 30 years ago.

Plus you can be a "sailor" and be in your 40's.

[Drew 2538]

17 minutes ago, G650 said:

Exactly how many more times are you going to post this.

Only like 2 sentences, in that entire post, have been said by me at any time.  The rest of it is new. 

But sure, be a dick about it.

[NeverMarryAStripper 21943]

Just now, Drew said:

But sure, be a dick about it.

Standard protocol for Surly

[bolverk 29728]

Updated my spreadsheet from last week which projected ~21,000 cases by yesterday's end. We came in right about 22,000 (they had gone back a revised a few days upward on Worldometer). It's now projecting a smidgen over 31,000 total US deaths by the end of Friday for what it's worth using a CFR of about 5.5 percent so far.

[HenryJames 66188]

26 minutes ago, G650 said:

Exactly how many more times are you going to post this.

He’ll stop when you buy a car from him.