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Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

InkaUtexas

By InkaUtexas
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Pato del Muerto

Pato del Muerto 52551

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28 minutes ago, stork642 said:

For someone who is constantly talking out their own ass you don’t hesitate to accuse that chicanery on other posters.  If their views don’t align with yours they are ass talkers?  I bet there is another thread where you will find more likeminded friends. Starts with a C and ends with an R.  It’s full of ass talkers.  

It ends with an m, doesn’t it?

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Uncle Boobs
Uncle Boobs

Against my better judgment and several beers deep, I have taken you up on this, potentially ending my streak of totally worthless posts. I have done 3 and 7 day averages only on the Worldometer data. 

Brisketexan
Brisketexan

Daughter’s home. A little PTSD, we’re picking up Whataburger to help.

Coelenterate Fuccboi
Coelenterate Fuccboi

Just try and imagine GreenspointTexas being the person to intubate you as you fight for your life against COVID-19. You’re laying there gasping for air while he chastises you for all the things you li

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Pato del Muerto

Pato del Muerto 52551

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3 minutes ago, Onboard 2.0 said:

He didn't spin anything that I could discern (which is unusual for him I guess, I don't watch his show).  He let the doctor/researcher from Stanford University present  their findings.  

Sorry if it bursts your whole, the sky is falling scenario. You must be in the Brisket BCC ( that's the World Calamity Camp).

Acronyms:  how do they work?

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kevwun

kevwun 15825

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It's also believed that that the Spanish flu mutated in to a less virulent strain.  Covid-19 can't mutate as widely as the the flu does from what I have read.  That's good news for the long term success of a vaccine, but bad news for it becoming less deadly on it's on.

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Onboard 2.0

Onboard 2.0 9083

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34 minutes ago, Pam Cummings said:

I was actually about to make the point that Maddow would be downvoted as political, and rightfully so.

If her interview comments were politically driven, yes... See how that works ?  

No politics here. Make comments that aren't political, come on in, otherwise STFU, and go away.

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Bevo

Bevo 13592

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31 minutes ago, Onboard 2.0 said:

He didn't spin anything that I could discern (which is unusual for him I guess, I don't watch his show).  He let the doctor/researcher from Stanford University present  their findings.  

Sorry if it bursts your whole, the sky is falling scenario. You must be in the Brisket WCC ( that's the World Calamity Camp).

 

EDIT: Thanks Pato

I have been working this morning. Do you have the link to the interview? I am curious whether Lucy Tompkins was the one being interviewed. She is a family friend and would be one of the Stanford experts on this outbreak. Her husband who is now deceased was a world renowned microbiologist named Stanley Falkow.

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Onboard 2.0

Onboard 2.0 9083

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4 minutes ago, Bevo said:

I have been working this morning. Do you have the link to the interview? I am curious whether Lucy Tompkins was the one being interviewed. She is a family friend and would be one of the Stanford experts on this outbreak. Her husband who is now deceased was a world renowned microbiologist named Stanley Falkow.

It's up thread from another poster. Post #33775  page 676.

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Hpara759

Hpara759 1780

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3 minutes ago, Bevo said:

I have been working this morning. Do you have the link to the interview? I am curious whether Lucy Tompkins was the one being interviewed. She is a family friend and would be one of the Stanford experts on this outbreak. Her husband who is now deceased was a world renowned microbiologist named Stanley Falkow.

33775

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SydneyCarton

SydneyCarton 48145

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10 minutes ago, Bevo said:

I have been working this morning. Do you have the link to the interview? I am curious whether Lucy Tompkins was the one being interviewed. She is a family friend and would be one of the Stanford experts on this outbreak. Her husband who is now deceased was a world renowned microbiologist named Stanley Falkow.

No, it was Dr. Jay Bhattacharya

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 105192

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39 minutes ago, Onboard 2.0 said:

He didn't spin anything that I could discern (which is unusual for him I guess, I don't watch his show).  He let the doctor/researcher from Stanford University present  their findings.  

Sorry if it bursts your whole, the sky is falling scenario. You must be in the Brisket WCC ( that's the World Calamity Camp).

 

EDIT: Thanks Pato

One can agree with the Stanford fellow that the death rate is orders of magnitude lower than early WHO projections (some as high as 3.4%) and realize that it is still significantly greater than the death rate from the flu.  This is a seriously deadly disease, particularly when left to spread unchecked -- Italy and NYC stand as stark exhibits of that fact.

Another issue is the hospitalization rate (which looks to be much higher than with the flu), and on top of that, the DURATION of hospital stays -- a typical flu hospitalization is around 3 days.  COVID hospitalizations are lasting two weeks.

I think everyone around here agrees that data is woefully incomplete, and extrapolating a "death rate" from only "confirmed cases" is not a useful number.  So, let's remove the noise and look at the facts that we DO know with some measure of confidence, particularly in cases where no/limited major action is taken to reduce transmission:

Lots of people end up in the hospital.  Lots.

They are very contagious (healthcare workers are getting infected a LOT).

They are staying in the hospital for a long time.

The percentage of hospitalized people who end up dying is quite high.

The number of total deaths in an area of uncontrolled transmission is very high (see the typical number of daily deaths in NYC, compare to recent daily death numbers).

SO, we know that without taking significant steps to limit transmission, bad shit happens.  Plenty of bad shit.  Significantly worse than with any flu in modern history.  That tells us that we have to take steps to limit transmission.

My despair comes from the "so the fuck what?" answer to that?  If grandma avoids dying now, just to die in October when the virus continues its inexorable spread, then what's the fucking difference?  If all we do is spread out the death and misery, I mean, that's a SMALL win, just because hospitals can avoid crashing, but THAT'S our "win?"  That's it?  That fucking sucks.

And we're entering a global depression to accomplish it.  I just think there are no good options.  We're going into a depression, and everyone who was gonna die is still gonna die, just over an 18 month period instead of a 3-4 month period.  Hooray.

 

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Onboard 2.0

Onboard 2.0 9083

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1 minute ago, Brisketexan said:

One can agree with the Stanford fellow that the death rate is orders of magnitude lower than early WHO projections (some as high as 3.4%) and realize that it is still significantly greater than the death rate from the flu.  This is a seriously deadly disease, particularly when left to spread unchecked -- Italy and NYC stand as stark exhibits of that fact.

Another issue is the hospitalization rate (which looks to be much higher than with the flu), and on top of that, the DURATION of hospital stays -- a typical flu hospitalization is around 3 days.  COVID hospitalizations are lasting two weeks.

I think everyone around here agrees that data is woefully incomplete, and extrapolating a "death rate" from only "confirmed cases" is not a useful number.  So, let's remove the noise and look at the facts that we DO know with some measure of confidence, particularly in cases where no/limited major action is taken to reduce transmission:

Lots of people end up in the hospital.  Lots.

They are very contagious (healthcare workers are getting infected a LOT).

They are staying in the hospital for a long time.

The percentage of hospitalized people who end up dying is quite high.

The number of total deaths in an area of uncontrolled transmission is very high (see the typical number of daily deaths in NYC, compare to recent daily death numbers).

SO, we know that without taking significant steps to limit transmission, bad shit happens.  Plenty of bad shit.  Significantly worse than with any flu in modern history.  That tells us that we have to take steps to limit transmission.

My despair comes from the "so the fuck what?" answer to that?  If grandma avoids dying now, just to die in October when the virus continues its inexorable spread, then what's the fucking difference?  If all we do is spread out the death and misery, I mean, that's a SMALL win, just because hospitals can avoid crashing, but THAT'S our "win?"  That's it?  That fucking sucks.

And we're entering a global depression to accomplish it.  I just think there are no good options.  We're going into a depression, and everyone who was gonna die is still gonna die, just over an 18 month period instead of a 3-4 month period.  Hooray.

 

Hey I'm not discounting  that people are dying from this virus, but the inflation of death rates is a media game plain and simple.

It's affecting other people with un related issues.  But look at what happened in Washington state. The federal gov't set up a hospital for the flood of  Covid patients, that was coming, and not one bed was ever used. Again hysteria being used instead of fact.

Depression ?  I reject that unless this thing goes on for many many many months.  Recession ?  Sure, But no depression.

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 105192

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1 minute ago, Onboard 2.0 said:

but the inflation of death rates is a media game plain and simple.

It's actually how this sort of thing -- public health stats -- works.  And it is definitely a big flaw, because it is based on what everyone knows is incomplete data.  It's not a sinister "media game."  It's the logical and standard historical result of using bad data.

And you skip over my ultimate point -- even if it's bad data in the charts and projections, the ACTUAL data we have (e.g., daily number of total deaths in NYC) shows a very high death toll.  The flu has never caused a massive spike in deaths in NYC like this (not since 1918, at least).  We KNOW that when  transmission reduction measures aren't implemented in a timely fashion, that's what happens.

Nevermind the hospitalization/ICU rate and length of time.  The contrasts you're seeing are between places that succeeded in reducing transmission vs. failing to do so.

So, in order to live in the world you're seeing -- where we don't need the extra hospitals and such -- that's the outcome of draconian transmission reduction measures.  Which we all agree are KILLING the economy.  That's what I'm getting at -- we can't have both.  We can't have a "hey, not that many people are getting sick, it's no big deal" AND have a "let's open everything back up and let the disease roam free."  There are no good choices.

Death or Depression.  Pick.  And here's the trick: massive death tolls and cratering hospitals will lead to Depression anyway.  

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MC Fresh Breath

MC Fresh Breath 4074

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Coronavirus destroys lungs. But doctors are finding its damage in kidneys, hearts and elsewhere. A medical worker tends to a covid-19 patient at an intensive care unit at Maimonides Medical Center in Brooklyn on April 1, 2020. A medical worker tends to a covid-19 patient at an intensive care unit at Maimonides Medical Center in Brooklyn on April 1, 2020. (Jon Gerberg/The Washington Post) By Lenny Bernstein, Carolyn Y. Johnson, Sarah Kaplan and Laurie McGinley April 15, 2020 at 7:00 a.m. EDT The new coronavirus kills by inflaming and clogging the tiny air sacs in the lungs, choking off the body’s oxygen supply until it shuts down the organs essential for life.

But clinicians around the world are seeing evidence that suggests the virus also may be causing heart inflammation, acute kidney disease, neurological malfunction, blood clots, intestinal damage and liver problems. That development has complicated treatment for the most severe cases of covid-19, the illness caused by the virus, and makes the course of recovery less certain, they said.

The prevalence of these effects is too great to attribute them solely to the “cytokine storm,” a powerful immune-system response that attacks the body, causing severe damage, doctors and researchers said.

AD Almost half the people hospitalized because of covid-19 have blood or protein in their urine, indicating early damage to their kidneys, said Alan Kliger, a Yale University School of Medicine nephrologist who co-chairs a task force assisting dialysis patients who have covid-19.

Even more alarming, he added, is early data that shows 14 to 30 percent of intensive-care patients in New York and Wuhan, China — birthplace of the pandemic — have lost kidney function and require dialysis, or its in-hospital cousin, continuous renal replacement therapy. New York intensive care units are treating so much kidney failure, he said, they need more personnel who can perform dialysis and have issued an urgent call for volunteers from other parts of the country. They also are running dangerously short of the sterile fluids used to deliver that therapy, he said.

“That’s a huge number of people who have this problem. That’s new to me,” Kliger said. “I think it’s very possible that the virus attaches to the kidney cells and attacks them.”

AD Sign up for our Coronavirus Updates newsletter to track the outbreak. All stories linked in the newsletter are free to access.

But in medicine, logical inferences often do not prove true when research is conducted. Everyone interviewed for this story stressed that with the pandemic still raging, they are speculating with much less data than is normally needed to reach solid clinical conclusions.

Many other possible causes for organ and tissue damage must be investigated, they said, including respiratory distress, the medications patients received, high fever, the stress of hospitalization in an ICU and the now well-described impact of cytokine storms.

Still, when researchers in Wuhan conducted autopsies on people who died of covid-19, they found nine of 26 had acute kidney injuries and seven had particles of the coronavirus in their kidneys, according to a paper by the Wuhan scientists published April 9 in the medical journal Kidney International.

AD “It does raise the very clear suspicion that at least a part of the acute kidney injury that we’re seeing is resulting from direct viral involvement of the kidney, which is distinct from what was seen in the SARS outbreak in 2002,” said Paul M. Palevsky, a University of Pittsburgh School of Medicine nephrologist and president-elect of the National Kidney Foundation.

One New York hospital recently had 51 ICU patients who needed 24-hour kidney treatment but had just 39 machines to do it, he said. The hospital had to ration the care, keeping each patient on the therapy less than 24 hours a day, he said.

The virus also may be damaging the heart. Clinicians in China and New York have reported myocarditis, an inflammation of the heart muscle, and, more dangerous, irregular heart rhythms that can lead to cardiac arrest in covid-19 patients.

AD “They seem to be doing really well as far as respiratory status goes, and then suddenly they develop a cardiac issue that seems out of proportion to their respiratory issues,” said Mitchell Elkind, a Columbia University neurologist and president-elect of the American Heart Association. “This seems to be out of proportion to their lung disease, which makes people wonder about that direct effect.”

One review of severely ill patients in China found that about 40 percent suffered arrhythmias and 20 percent had some form of cardiac injury, Elkind said. “There is some concern that some of it may be due to direct influence of the virus,” he said.

The new virus enters the cells of people who are infected by latching onto the ACE2 receptor on cell surfaces. It unquestionably attacks the cells in the respiratory tract, but there is increasing suspicion that it is using the same doorway to enter other cells. The gastrointestinal tract, for instance, contains 100 times more of these receptors than other parts of the body, and its surface area is enormous.

AD “If you unfurl it, it’s like a tennis court of surface area — this tremendous area for the virus to invade and replicate itself,” said Brennan Spiegel, co-editor in chief of the American Journal of Gastroenterology.

In a subset of covid-19 cases, researchers have found, the immune system battling the infection goes into hyperdrive. The uncontrolled response leads to the release of a flood of substances called cytokines that, in excess, can result in damage to multiple organs. In some severely ill covid-19 patients, doctors have found high levels of a pro-inflammatory cytokine called interleukin-6, known by the medical shorthand IL-6.

The unfettered response, also called “cytokine release syndrome,” has long been recognized in other patients, including those with autoimmune diseases such as rheumatoid arthritis or in cancer patients undergoing certain immunotherapies.

AD For covid-19 patients, cytokine storms are a major reason that some require intensive care and ventilation, said Jeffrey S. Weber, deputy director of the Perlmutter Cancer Center at NYU Langone Medical Center.

“When your cytokines are systemically out of control, bad stuff happens,” he said. “It can be a complete disaster.” It isn’t clear why cytokine storms occur in some patients and not others, though genetic factors may play a role, some doctors say.

To treat cytokine storms, some doctors are using anti-IL-6 drugs such as tocilizumab, which is approved for cancer patients who develop cytokine storms as a result of immunotherapy.

Another odd, and now well-known, symptom of covid-19 is loss of smell and taste. Claire Hopkins, president of the British Rhinological Society, said studies of patients in Italy and elsewhere have shown that some lose their sense of smell before they show signs of being sick.

AD “The coronavirus can actually attack and invade olfactory nerve endings,” Hopkins said. When these aroma-detecting fibers are disrupted, they can’t send odors to the brain.

Anosmia — the medical term for the inability to smell — was not initially recognized as a symptom of covid-19, Hopkins said. Doctors were so overwhelmed by patients with severe respiratory problems, she said, that “they didn’t ask the question.”

But subsequent data from a symptom-tracking app has shown that 60 percent of people later diagnosed with covid-19 reported losing their senses of smell and taste. About a quarter of participants experienced anosmia before developing other symptoms, suggesting it can be an early warning sign of infection.

AD Intriguingly, Hopkins said, people who lose their sense of smell don’t seem to develop the same severe respiratory problems that have made covid-19 so deadly. But a very small number of patients have experienced confusion, low blood oxygen levels and even lost consciousness — a sign that the virus may have traveled along their olfactory nerve endings straight to the central nervous system.

“Why you get this different expression in different people, nobody knows,” she said.

There are also reports that covid-19 can turn people’s eyes red, causing pinkeye, or conjunctivitis, in some patients. One study of 38 hospitalized patients in Hubei province, China, found that a third had pinkeye.

But like many of the non-respiratory effects of the virus, this symptom may be relatively uncommon — and may develop only in people already severely ill. The fact that the virus has been found in the mucus membrane that covers the eye in a small number of patients, however, does suggest that the eye could be an entryway for the virus — and is one reason that face shields and goggles are being used to protect health-care workers.

The virus also is having a clear impact on the gastrointestinal tract, causing diarrhea, vomiting and other symptoms. One study found that half of covid-19 patients have gastrointestinal symptoms, and specialists have coined a Twitter hashtag, #NotJustCough, to raise awareness of them.

tudies suggest that patients with digestive symptoms will also develop a cough, but one may occur days before the other.

“The question is, is it kind of behaving like a hybrid of different viruses?” Spiegel said. “What we’re learning is, it seems anyway, that this virus homes in on more than one organ system.”

Reports also indicate that the virus can attack the liver. A 59-year-old woman in Long Island came to the hospital with dark urine, which was ultimately found to be caused by acute hepatitis. After she developed a cough, physicians attributed the liver damage to a covid-19 infection.

Spiegel said he has seen more such reports every day, including one from China on five patients with acute viral hepatitis.

A particular danger of the virus appears to be its tendency to produce blood clots in the veins of the legs and other vessels, which can break off, travel to the lung and cause death by a condition known as pulmonary embolism.

An examination of 81 patients hospitalized with pneumonia caused by covid-19 in Wuhan found that 20 had such events and that eight of them died. The peer-reviewed data was published online April 9 in the Journal of Thrombosis and Hemostasis.

Across New York City, blood thinners are being used with covid-19 patients much more than expected, said Sanjum Sethi, an interventional radiologist and assistant professor of medicine at Columbia University’s Irving Medical Center.

“We’re just seeing so many of these events that we have to investigate further,” he said.

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/coronavirus-destroys-lungs-but-doctors-are-finding-its-damage-in-kidneys-hearts-and-elsewhere/2020/04/14/7ff71ee0-7db1-11ea-a3ee-13e1ae0a3571_story.html

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InkaUtexas

InkaUtexas 26028

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11 minutes ago, Onboard 2.0 said:

Hey I'm not discounting  that people are dying from this virus, but the inflation of death rates is a media game plain and simple.

Even if they are the rates are bad enough. Transmission is going to continue and so will deaths. It be what it be. 

Now about opening up the economy. What needs to open to make everyone happy? 

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dcar00

dcar00 14321

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12 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Ha. Good point. 

But no I went and cut and pasted the name from the article. 

https://fsi.stanford.edu/news/coronavirus-deadly-they-say

here is the stanford link to the story about the article.  its an opinion article they published in the WSJ I think.  basically he is saying that the 2M+ deaths were based on spanish flu type scenarios from 100 years ago and that the death rate is an order of magnitude lower than the 2-4% people keep referencing based on CCFR(confirmed case fatality rate).

I know he used 100M as and example for easy maths but I think that would be a reasonable number that will end up being infected from the start of this.

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Onboard 2.0

Onboard 2.0 9083

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1 minute ago, Brisketexan said:

It's actually how this sort of thing -- public health stats -- works.  And it is definitely a big flaw, because it is based on what everyone knows is incomplete data.  It's not a sinister "media game."  It's the logical and standard historical result of using bad data.

And you skip over my ultimate point -- even if it's bad data in the charts and projections, the ACTUAL data we have (e.g., daily number of total deaths in NYC) shows a very high death toll.  The flu has never caused a massive spike in deaths in NYC like this (not since 1918, at least).  We KNOW that when  transmission reduction measures aren't implemented in a timely fashion, that's what happens.

Nevermind the hospitalization/ICU rate and length of time.  The contrasts you're seeing are between places that succeeded in reducing transmission vs. failing to do so.

So, in order to live in the world you're seeing -- where we don't need the extra hospitals and such -- that's the outcome of draconian transmission reduction measures.  Which we all agree are KILLING the economy.  That's what I'm getting at -- we can't have both.  We can't have a "hey, not that many people are getting sick, it's no big deal" AND have a "let's open everything back up and let the disease roam free."  There are no good choices.

Death or Depression.  Pick.  And here's the trick: massive death tolls and cratering hospitals will lead to Depression anyway.  

strange-game__w_640__ssl_1.png

Oh I know it's not a sinister game, but it is the game they play, and the stats right now are murky because people are overwhelmed so death records are gonna be assigned the easiest route right now.

After the fact testing is going to show a much lower rate than current graphs are showing. We aren't going to have massive death tolls unless this thing hits again or mutates. 

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dcar00

dcar00 14321

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6 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

It's actually how this sort of thing -- public health stats -- works.  And it is definitely a big flaw, because it is based on what everyone knows is incomplete data.  It's not a sinister "media game."  It's the logical and standard historical result of using bad data.

And you skip over my ultimate point -- even if it's bad data in the charts and projections, the ACTUAL data we have (e.g., daily number of total deaths in NYC) shows a very high death toll.  The flu has never caused a massive spike in deaths in NYC like this (not since 1918, at least).  We KNOW that when  transmission reduction measures aren't implemented in a timely fashion, that's what happens.

Nevermind the hospitalization/ICU rate and length of time.  The contrasts you're seeing are between places that succeeded in reducing transmission vs. failing to do so.

So, in order to live in the world you're seeing -- where we don't need the extra hospitals and such -- that's the outcome of draconian transmission reduction measures.  Which we all agree are KILLING the economy.  That's what I'm getting at -- we can't have both.  We can't have a "hey, not that many people are getting sick, it's no big deal" AND have a "let's open everything back up and let the disease roam free."  There are no good choices.

Death or Depression.  Pick.  And here's the trick: massive death tolls and cratering hospitals will lead to Depression anyway.  

strange-game__w_640__ssl_1.png

fair enough.  what would be your number to indicate massive death tolls?

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workswithseed

workswithseed 2109

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1 minute ago, InkaUtexas said:

Even if they are the rates are bad enough. Transmission is going to continue and so will deaths. It be what it be. 

Now about opening up the economy. What needs to open to make everyone happy? 

The strip joints opening up would make the strippers happier. 

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Onboard 2.0

Onboard 2.0 9083

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1 minute ago, InkaUtexas said:

Even if they are the rates are bad enough. Transmission is going to continue and so will deaths. It be what it be. 

Now about opening up the economy. What needs to open to make everyone happy? 

Oh for damn sure yeah,  but the doom and gloom predictions that massive dead piling the streets isn't going to materialize here unless it's some pocket an isolated place. Va. hasn't been hit too hard,  but we have the number one death spot in the nation with 44-50 dead from a single assisted living facility.  

 

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 105192

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1 minute ago, Onboard 2.0 said:

We aren't going to have massive death tolls unless this thing hits again or mutates. 

"Hits again?"  We have real-world data on what it does when allowed to spread unchecked.  The death toll in NYC tells us that.  NYC is seeing something like 3X the average daily number of deaths -- logic tells us that spike is COVID-related (as there's no other outlier cause we're aware of).  

If we do not reduce transmission, we have a spike in deaths.  The data doesn't tell us exactly what the RATE is, but it tells us unambiguously that we'll have a spike -- more people will die than otherwise would have.  A lot more.

And again, hospitalization rate and hospitalization stay.  This is a bad fucking disease, and without appropriate measures, it can and will kill a lot of people.

We have taken steps to keep that number low.  Those steps are killing us economically.  You can reduce deaths.  Or you can have a functioning economy.  We can't have both.

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