Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

[dcar00 14,030]

2 minutes ago, FondrenRoad said:

Its a large school. And he is primarily a Health Economist.  He doesn't provide a majority opinion for the school.  This isn't even his first foray into trying to profit by backing up right wing talking points.

 

and?

[SydneyCarton 47,847]

13 minutes ago, justhookit said:

Is CR closed for maintenance or something. Fuck.

I got you fam. I love seeing pacman making his regular rounds of negging me and anyone who dares suggest the Cloak Room should remain in the cloak room. 

[immortal13 4,059]

2 hours ago, Pam Cummings said:

Tucker Carlson job title: political commentator

 

Thread title: no politics

 

Like how is there even an argument here? I'm sure the Stanford doctor's opinions and commentary can be found elsewhere.

 

[dcar00 14,030]

5 minutes ago, FondrenRoad said:

Its a large school. And he is primarily a Health Economist.  He doesn't provide a majority opinion for the school.  This isn't even his first foray into trying to profit by backing up right wing talking points.

 

He's a doctor...but no one can be sure the size of his dick

[pacman 7,324]

3 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

I got you fam. I love seeing pacman making his regular rounds of negging me and anyone who dares suggest the Cloak Room should remain in the cloak room. 

obvious mischaracterization, but that is typical for you

i neg you for mentioning cloak room, just like i pos rep when you randomly actually provide content for this thread.

you want it to be a NO-CR thread yet you and your sycophants, fishing for rep, keep bringing up CR

[MNLonghornFUKM 8,799]

The deaths from this outbreak will likely be less than 100k.  The question is, if we stop the very measures that helped us keep them below 100k during this particular window, will we see another spike and another 100k?  And another, and another?  We are not in a vacuum, these three months are not the end.

So when (if) herd immunity or (if) a vaccine are deemed effective, those third and fourth waves will become ripples in a bath tub.

[Modessit 5,596]

How is it possible that Japan has 30 times fewer cases per capita than the USA. Not 30% less. 30 TIMES. Superior cleanliness? Culture of wearing face masks? No handshakes? Genetic predisposición to resist the virus? In terms of deaths per million people: 79 times smaller. WTF?

Pixels

[jimmyjazz 45,546]

25 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

Standford Medical is fringe..now I've heard it all.

Well, it's certainly not unheard of for educational institutions to have faculty (and in particular tenured faculty) on staff that might espouse "unusual" theories.  Beyond that, the school does not automatically confer authority.  Recently there has been a great deal of attention focused on Shiva Ayyadurai, a multi-degreed PhD from MIT whose theories about coronavirus would certainly qualify, if for no other reason than they are controversial.

I think it's important to evaluate the science, without appealing to authority.

[Brisketexan 104,558]

Just now, MNLonghornFUKM said:

So when (if) herd immunity or (if) a vaccine are deemed effective, those third and fourth waves will become ripples in a bath tub.

If we reach herd immunity, then we already infected enough people to have a lot of dead people.

Yes, a vaccine is the key.  That much is obvious.  What also seems obvious is that it's a long way away. I sure hope that's wrong, but the strong consensus says it's right.

[bolverk 29,397]

15 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

Ok doomer.

Not a "doomer" at all.

I've put together a simple, crude spreadsheet to create a rolling five-day projection based solely on Worldometer confirmed cases with an on-going CFR, and so far it's been a fairly accurate predictor. You've already questioned me about it, remember? For this past Sunday, it projected around 21-22,000 total deaths and that's where it was. By Friday night, I've already told you that we should be in the 30-31,000 range and we are very much on track for that. When I gave you that number previously, you said "Where are all the deaths going to come from now that NYC is going down?"

I have never made any predictions beyond what I've just explained to you.

[SydneyCarton 47,847]

1 minute ago, pacman said:

obvious mischaracterization, but that is typical for you

i neg you for mentioning cloak room, just like i pos rep when you randomly actually provide content for this thread.

you want it to be a NO-CR thread yet you and your sycophants, fishing for rep, keep bringing up CR

Pam cloak room'd this thread. Again. Repeatedly. And you walking around Pos Reping her for saying we should be running the WHO, a definitely political post, certainly seems to contradict you claiming to pos rep the people who bring information. And then you drop nuggets like this, which illustrate your true feelings:

 

Quote

this pandemic needed a no politics thread..unfortunately politics inserted itself into the pandemic from the get go hence, ineffectiveness is the name of the game

You don't believe there's such a thing as a no politics pandemic thread because the president in charge when it hit was a Republican, and you chafe that you can't just say whatever you want wherever you want. Just. Go. Post. In. The. Cloak. Room. 

[MNLonghornFUKM 8,799]

Not a "doomer" at all.
I've put together a simple, crude spreadsheet to create a rolling five-day projection based solely on Worldometer confirmed cases with an on-going CFR, and so far it's been a fairly accurate predictor. You've already questioned me about it, remember? For this past Sunday, it projected around 21-22,000 total deaths and that's where it was. By Friday night, I've already told you that we should be in the 30-31,000 range and we are very much on track for that. When I gave you that number previously, you said "Where are all the deaths going to come from now that NYC is going down?"
I have never made any predictions beyond what I've just explained to you.

I guess they came from “probable” deaths that New York health just tossed in.

[dcar00 14,030]

5 minutes ago, FondrenRoad said:

And he was called onto Tucker's show to confirm Tucker's political bias. The rest of Stanford's faculty was conveniently uninvited. And frankly, the its just like the flu talking point is old and has even been abandoned by Trump. 

If this board is truly supposed to be apolitical, then Fox News interviews shouldn't be posted at all.  Nor should theories by right or left wing fame junkie doctors. 

We have current data. We will eventually have additional data. We need more testing. There are logistical issues currently.  We can make assessments based on current data. We can modify those assessments when we have additional data. This is apolitical. 

fair enough I posted the link to the article.  the guy is a doctor on the faculty at Stanford.  

[pacman 7,324]

8 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Pam cloak room'd this thread. Again. Repeatedly. And you walking around Pos Reping her for saying we should be running the WHO, a definitely political post, certainly seems to contradict you claiming to pos rep the people who bring information. And then you drop nuggets like this, which illustrate your true feelings:

 

You don't believe there's such a thing as a no politics pandemic thread because the president in charge when it hit was a Republican, and you chafe that you can't just say whatever you want wherever you want. Just. Go. Post. In. The. Cloak. Room. 

You are projecting incorrectly to fit your narrow narrative, as usual. You are spewing bullshit, plain and simple.

Edited April 15, 2020 by pacman

[dcar00 14,030]

1 minute ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

I guess they came from “probable” deaths that New York health just tossed in.

can they save blood or swab from the person suspected to have died from Covid19 and test later?

[MNLonghornFUKM 8,799]

If we reach herd immunity, then we already infected enough people to have a lot of dead people.
Yes, a vaccine is the key.  That much is obvious.  What also seems obvious is that it's a long way away. I sure hope that's wrong, but the strong consensus says it's right.

A herd immunity(without a depression) while keeping the vulnerable secluded seems to me like it’s the road we HAVE to take. I agreed with your take earlier about flattening the deaths. People who’d die within 18 months from now are dying in current time. Keeping those soon to be dead(in a normal life) is a goal but I don’t think we can go into a depression over it.

[Brisketexan 104,558]

Just now, MNLonghornFUKM said:

I guess they came from “probable” deaths that New York health just tossed in.

If NYC typically sees around X number of deaths per day, and then begins to see X+Y number of deaths a day (and Y is a material number -- like a triple digit number), isn't that a strong suggestion that something near-term and specific caused that uptick?  It's not some sinister plan -- it's sound statistics with imperfect data, and when you layer that on the fact that we know for a fact that people are dying at home of serious respiratory illnesses, it's a pretty reasonable inference.

We don't have perfect data, and never will.  But a hypothesis that the dramatic uptick in daily deaths - which coincides with an outbreak of a novel disease - is attributable to that disease as opposed to a lot of folks coming down with a sudden peanut allergy, is a sound one.

[dcar00 14,030]

9 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

If we reach herd immunity, then we already infected enough people to have a lot of dead people.

Yes, a vaccine is the key.  That much is obvious.  What also seems obvious is that it's a long way away. I sure hope that's wrong, but the strong consensus says it's right.

what do you consider a lot of dead people?

yes vax is key, but treatment scenarios will emerge as well I believe.

[MNLonghornFUKM 8,799]

can they save blood or swab from the person suspected to have died from Covid19 and test later?

I doubt they’re going to retract all of those unclaimed bodies on hart island and conduct spit swabs

[Sgt Hulk 13,644]

12 minutes ago, bolverk said:

Not a "doomer" at all.

I've put together a simple, crude spreadsheet to create a rolling five-day projection based solely on Worldometer confirmed cases with an on-going CFR, and so far it's been a fairly accurate predictor. You've already questioned me about it, remember? For this past Sunday, it projected around 21-22,000 total deaths and that's where it was. By Friday night, I've already told you that we should be in the 30-31,000 range and we are very much on track for that. When I gave you that number previously, you said "Where are all the deaths going to come from now that NYC is going down?"

I have never made any predictions beyond what I've just explained to you.

Will your spread sheet tell me if we are going to be Italy in 2 weeks?

[dcar00 14,030]

Just now, MNLonghornFUKM said:

I doubt they’re going to retract all of those unclaimed bodies on hart island and conduct spit swabs

I'm talking about from now. especially for those that died at home from covid

[Brisketexan 104,558]

Just now, dcar00 said:

what do you consider a lot of dead people?

yes vax is key, but treatment scenarios will emerge as well I believe.

My personal "over/under" is 200k.  If we keep it under 200k, we will have accomplished something real, and while that will still be 2.5X the highest recent flu deaths, it's still a relatively small number in terms of the total population.  If we go much over that, we will have failed.  If it tops 500k, we definitely did a poor job.

I sure as hell hope for treatment scenarios.  None of them look to be panning out yet, though.  There's anecdotal evidence of something that might work, but when it gets down to being actually scientifically tested, we aren't getting anything great.

[SydneyCarton 47,847]

2 minutes ago, pacman said:

You are projecting incorrectly to fit your narrow narrative, as usual.

"I can't actually respond to your points, so I'm simply going to say Fake news and walk away." Jesus, you might as well be a flat earther or climate denier while you're at it. I directly quoted you, and I correctly identified and attributed your behavior. You got one thing right, I do have a narrow narrative here: Stop talking about the CR, and in your case, try to stop being such sleezy little shit. 

[Foosters 17,727]

Jesus Christ.

About 40x more the number of posts complaining about CR than number of posts actually going CR.

Just report and neg and move on.

Twitter is becoming more tolerable than this place.

[Sgt Hulk 13,644]

1 hour ago, Texaus said:

I vote for a functioning economy

Why do you hate grandma 

Edited April 15, 2020 by Sgt Hulk

[MNLonghornFUKM 8,799]

If NYC typically sees around X number of deaths per day, and then begins to see X+Y number of deaths a day (and Y is a material number -- like a triple digit number), isn't that a strong suggestion that something near-term and specific caused that uptick?  It's not some sinister plan -- it's sound statistics with imperfect data, and when you layer that on the fact that we know for a fact that people are dying at home of serious respiratory illnesses, it's a pretty reasonable inference.
We don't have perfect data, and never will.  But a hypothesis that the dramatic uptick in daily deaths - which coincides with an outbreak of a novel disease - is attributable to that disease as opposed to a lot of folks coming down with a sudden peanut allergy, is a sound one.

It would. Obviously it sped up the process of death for a lot of people, who I assume were fixed to die in the future. It’s just that we never paid attention to the x axis of NY daily deaths because we don’t know any of those who died.

[pacman 7,324]

dbl msg

Edited April 15, 2020 by pacman

[Homesickhorn 2,202]

2 hours ago, smuggs said:

Fuck yeah.

 

The Kids New On The Block?

[pacman 7,324]

3 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

"I can't actually respond to your points, so I'm simply going to say Fake news and walk away." Jesus, you might as well be a flat earther or climate denier while you're at it. I directly quoted you, and I correctly identified and attributed your behavior. You got one thing right, I do have a narrow narrative here: Stop talking about the CR, and in your case, try to stop being such sleezy little shit. 

You and ctj like to ruin this thread baiting posters into back and forth posts. It's just strange. I'll have to pass on continuing to respond to your bs though.

Edited April 15, 2020 by pacman

[Royalfan5 2,348]

For your livestock update, cattle packing plants fairly level with yesterday around 80% of capacity with Cargill cutting a shift in Colorado on top of the other issues. Hogs were inline with yesterday at about 85% of capacity, so we are holding up much better after the big down day on Monday. Beef values are still moving higher, while pork has remained pretty flat. 

[TwiceHorn 31,263]

 

17 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Well, it's certainly not unheard of for educational institutions to have faculty (and in particular tenured faculty) on staff that might espouse "unusual" theories.  Beyond that, the school does not automatically confer authority.  Recently there has been a great deal of attention focused on Shiva Ayyadurai, a multi-degreed PhD from MIT whose theories about coronavirus would certainly qualify, if for no other reason than they are controversial.

I think it's important to evaluate the science, without appealing to authority.

To wit, https://columbiasurgery.org/mehmet-c-oz-md-facs

 

[Brisketexan 104,558]

2 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

It would. Obviously it sped up the process of death for a lot of people, who I assume were fixed to die in the future. It’s just that we never paid attention to the x axis of NY daily deaths because we don’t know any of those who died.

We all are, dude.  We all are.  That's the nature of the universe.

Everyone who died on 9/11 was "fixed to die in the future."  Even someone with one day to live from terminal cancer.  But we still count every one of those deaths as a terrorism death.  And they still caused a spike in NYC-area deaths.  That's how it works.

[MNLonghornFUKM 8,799]

Jesus Christ.
About 40x more the number of posts complaining about CR than number of posts actually going CR.
Just report and neg and move on.
Twitter is becoming more tolerable than this place.

A lof the links posted about covid stories will have you know who’s name in the story. It’s only Political if it’s in your DNA to make a point about it to the masses like a dork only would.

[MNLonghornFUKM 8,799]

We all are, dude.  We all are.  That's the nature of the universe.
Everyone who died on 9/11 was "fixed to die in the future."  Even someone with one day to live from terminal cancer.  But we still count every one of those deaths as a terrorism death.  And they still caused a spike in NYC-area deaths.  That's how it works.

So let’s go back to normal if the end game is the same for everybody which it is

[Hate 20,103]

For your livestock update, cattle packing plants fairly level with yesterday around 80% of capacity with Cargill cutting a shift in Colorado on top of the other issues. Hogs were inline with yesterday at about 85% of capacity, so we are holding up much better after the big down day on Monday. Beef values are still moving higher, while pork has remained pretty flat. 

This is some meaningful information. This means there won’t be a bacon or steak shortage, right?

[Brisketexan 104,558]

1 minute ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

So let’s go back to normal if the end game is the same for everybody which it is

WTF?  By your logic, nuclear war killing 200 million Americans is cool because hey, they were all gonna die eventually anyway.

Come the fuck on.

[MNLonghornFUKM 8,799]

WTF?  By your logic, nuclear war killing 200 million Americans is cool because hey, they were all gonna die eventually anyway.
Come the fuck on.

Dude I wasn’t fucking serious.

[SydneyCarton 47,847]

6 minutes ago, pacman said:

You and ctj like to ruin this thread baiting posters into back and forth posts. It's just strange. I'll have to pass on continuing to respond to your bs though.

Oh, I baited Pam into shitting all over this thread, unprompted? I baited you to offer that there's no such thing as a non political thread? I baited you to go around negging people who don't want to talk politics? Your theory only works if you aren't well known for being a political hack all over this thread, which you are. Now, do I refuse to let go of an argument like a fucking badger/child? Guilty. I'll back and forth forever. But that doesn't happen until you fucks show up first trying to spew your bullshit here. 

But foosters and others are right, I'll end my part in the back and forth now. We'll see how long it us until someone else shows up to drop a giant political najeh on this thread. 

[Moby Ric 2,058]

3...2...1....

[dcar00 14,030]

Just now, Brisketexan said:

My personal "over/under" is 200k.  If we keep it under 200k, we will have accomplished something real, and while that will still be 2.5X the highest recent flu deaths, it's still a relatively small number in terms of the total population.  If we go much over that, we will have failed.  If it tops 500k, we definitely did a poor job.

I sure as hell hope for treatment scenarios.  None of them look to be panning out yet, though.  There's anecdotal evidence of something that might work, but when it gets down to being actually scientifically tested, we aren't getting anything great.

agree.  my number from the start with a heavy scalpel(i realize this is NOT a scientific term and very open to interpretation) was this will be 2x to 3x flu, given 40K a reasonable estimate yearly flu deaths. I thought absolute worse case would be about 200K or so. scalpel to me did not include closing everything down but limiting space and certainly cancelling very large gatherings and that people would avoid flights/cruises on their own.  this is real and worse than flu because it transmits faster.

I base this on the info that spanish flu was .675 total pop and that was 100 years and mutliple pandemic/epidemics ago.  as a medical/science community, we have to be 100 times better off than we were 100 years ago(in my opinion).

I still want to know what the fuck happened in NY/NJ because 50% of the deaths should not be happening there.  I wish we had shut down all foreign incoming the same day we did China but at the beginning of March Fauci was saying folks in the US didn't need to change their habits really so there must have been some weird data driving that.

[Royalfan5 2,348]

8 minutes ago, Hate said:

This is some meaningful information. This means there won’t be a bacon or steak shortage, right?

Shouldn't be for now. Assuming we can keep plants running at these levels we won't back up too bad, and the biggest thing will be re-orienting food service into retail channels for the time being. In Nebraska, they're now allowing restaurants to sell food out of storage as groceries to help the stranded food too.  

[atomheartbevo 89,409]

4 hours ago, XYZ said:

How is it possible that Japan has 30 times fewer cases per capita than the USA. Not 30% less. 30 TIMES. Superior cleanliness? Culture of wearing face masks? No handshakes? Genetic predisposición to resist the virus? In terms of deaths per million people: 79 times smaller. WTF?

 

4 hours ago, NoName said:

took immediate action (closed down schools v quickly), culture (masks, separation, cleanliness), etc 

Throw in lying.

And they aren't having enough sex, so they don't have little kids all over the place spreading it. And they aren't making booty calls at the rate that we do.

[SHOOTER12 8,788]

1 hour ago, SydneyCarton said:

I'm not sure I really see the purpose of assigning a specific gender to pieces of shit. 

Sure, Mr. Poopy-Head as compared to Mrs. Poopy-Head

[bolverk 29,397]

22 minutes ago, Sgt Hulk said:

Will your spread sheet tell me if we are going to be Italy in 2 weeks?

No. It only makes a decent range at where we'll be in about five days based on new confirmed cases. That is all.

[Bobby_Batronic 1,994]

6 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

 

Throw in lying.

And they aren't having enough sex, so they don't have little kids all over the place spreading it. And they aren't making booty calls at the rate that we do.

Animated tentacle porn saves nation from ravages of pandemic?

[atomheartbevo 89,409]

1 minute ago, Bobby_Batronic said:

Animated tentacle porn saves nation from ravages of pandemic?

But it sets up the nation for a different kind of ravaging?

[jimmyjazz 45,546]

19 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

 

To wit, https://columbiasurgery.org/mehmet-c-oz-md-facs

. . . and it wouldn't surprise me to find out he's a great surgeon, but he's expanded into the "controversial".  His original bona fides are certainly, from a high viewpoint, impressive.

(Not disagreeing with you, by the way.)

[MNLonghornFUKM 8,799]

agree.  my number from the start with a heavy scalpel(i realize this is NOT a scientific term and very open to interpretation) was this will be 2x to 3x flu, given 40K a reasonable estimate yearly flu deaths. I thought absolute worse case would be about 200K or so. scalpel to me did not include closing everything down but limiting space and certainly cancelling very large gatherings and that people would avoid flights/cruises on their own.  this is real and worse than flu because it transmits faster.
I base this on the info that spanish flu was .675 total pop and that was 100 years and mutliple pandemic/epidemics ago.  as a medical/science community, we have to be 100 times better off than we were 100 years ago(in my opinion).
I still want to know what the fuck happened in NY/NJ because 50% of the deaths should not be happening there.  I wish we had shut down all foreign incoming the same day we did China but at the beginning of March Fauci was saying folks in the US didn't need to change their habits really so there must have been some weird data driving that.

They waited to long to lockdown for starters. California is 5th in confirmed cases. If you add total populations of NYC(the city not out state)/NJ/mass and penn you get roughly close to the same amount of people in Cali but 50 times the problem.


US is huge and spread out. No place has the capability to pull off what ny did. After this first wave subsides we’ll learn and adapt for round 2. I think round 2 will be a ripple.

[pacman 7,324]

17 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

at the beginning of March Fauci was saying folks in the US didn't need to change their habits

 

March 8

 

Fauci on Meet the Press:

 "protect the vulnerable"

"right now, no large crowds, no long trips and above all don't get on a cruise ship"

"start seriously looking at social distancing"

"don't want to go to massive gatherings"

 

 

Edited April 15, 2020 by pacman

[atomheartbevo 89,409]

4 hours ago, VABuckeye said:

They're rules followers.  The same with other countries.  Here, we're asked to do some simple things and you have the "muh rights!!!" crowd and you have the "I'm doing St. Paddy's day and spring break crowd".

To paraphrase, we're a nation of (mostly) idiots.

In our neighborhood, near a funky intersection that's been there for decades (Medical/40th/etc.), they are building some bike path interchange thing so that bicyclists  coming from Lamar can head west down 40th without spending an extra 15 seconds following the sidewalk shortcut that the rest of us do.

There were like 7-8 workers cluster around a couple of picnic tables chowing down on Rudy's BBQ. A few seemed to be maintaining some kind of distance, but not the rest.

But apparently that construction is essential (it's been there since at least the 80s, I stopped looking at older maps after that) and social distancing isn't necessary as a result.

(Not shitting on the workers, they probably have little say in the matter, just pointing out that "essential" is being loosely interpreted by the city).

 

Edited April 15, 2020 by atomheartbevo