Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

[Hornius Emeritus 12,457]

17 bodies found in New Jersey nursing home after anonymous tip:

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/16/us/bodies-found-new-jersey-nursing-home/index.html

[XYZ 2,154]

1 hour ago, SydneyCarton said:

I'm aware of that. The point I was making is that then it is going to become "real" to people. Right now they're getting unemployment and checks and being told to stay home. Right now the depression/recession is only real on paper. That changes when payments run out and there's no jobs to be had. That's my point, that is when it becomes "Real" for people. Sometime in June/July. 

Gotcha.

[bigup2dahorns 3,343]

[SydneyCarton 48,076]

I just got off the phone with my GP. He said that they finally are going to be getting antibody tests they feel good about, starting early next week. He had some other interesting things to say about his business and moving into the future, but he said first things first they test the staff for everything. Anyone who tests positive becomes forward facing Doctor/Nurse at the practice. So that's good, there's starting to become availability in Houston, what with the link I posted earlier about an antibody test in Katy. 

Hopefully this thing turns out widespread as a motherfucker.

[InkaUtexas 25,907]

4 minutes ago, bigup2dahorns said:

 

All over the nation this is going on. On the How to Help thread there are some good links and such. 

On a side note. Hays county had a smaller distribution yesterday than anticipated. They did a quick survey of people who did not show up and were told by quite a few they were using their stimulus checks for food. 

 

[Eskimohorn 5,633]

Not a chance are we locking down until 2021, and that is how long it will take to get a vaccine. 

the areas that are more organized will lock down less or less severe and will have less of a longterm hit. This virus will lock down communities whether we want to or not.

[utee94 15,811]

13 minutes ago, Eskimohorn said:

the areas that are more organized will lock down less or less severe and will have less of a longterm hit. This virus will lock down communities whether we want to or not.

We need the virus to transmit and spread.  It just needs to happen at a controlled pace.  Uncorking the bottle and letting people decide their own level of risk, will accomplish that.  Some will immediately go out.  Others will wait a month.  Others will wait many months.  Those are all okay decisions, and we actually NEED it to happen that way.

We're not going to be able to vaccinate in time to contain it.  Containment has never been an option.  The "lockdowns" are to flatten the curve only.  They're not a long term solution.  They never were.  They never could have been.  And they won't be much longer.

 

Edited April 16, 2020 by utee94

[ABSR 5,309]

13 minutes ago, Eskimohorn said:

the areas that are more organized will lock down less or less severe and will have less of a longterm hit. This virus will lock down communities whether we want to or not.

My guess is that we will see regions treat it differently based on their structure and the impact they are seeing.  NYC or major high density metro's will have to deal differently than more suburban cities.

My guess is we will open up as much as possible for each area, and then what we will have is if an area has a spike in hospitalizations we may see rolling SIP's after being open for a while.  So 4-6 weeks of relatively open and then a renewed 2-3 weeks of updated SIP based on the medical load,  followed by opening up again.  Rinse-repeat.

At the same time while we can't force a quarantine on individual groups (elderly, etc), but we will likely give guidance to try and strongly recommend continued SIP for at risk individuals.

[South Austin 52,463]

38 minutes ago, Hornius Emeritus said:

17 bodies found in New Jersey nursing home after anonymous tip:

[bolverk 29,663]

14 minutes ago, utee94 said:

We need the virus to transmit and spread.  It just needs to happen at a controlled pace.  Uncorking the bottle and letting people decide their own level of risk, will accomplish that.  Some will immediately go out.  Others will wait a month.  Others will wait many months.  Those are all okay decisions, and we actually NEED it to happen that way.

We're not going to be able to vaccinate in time to contain it.  Containment has never been an option.  The "lockdowns" are to flatten the curve only.  They're not a long term solution.  They never were.  They never could have been.  And they won't be much longer.

 

This is undoubtedly true. They were absolutely necessary to flatten the curve as the number of cases were beginning to rise at an exponential rate with all of those dire predictions that showed the potential if action wasn't taken very quickly. Thankfully, it was. And, as I think everyone here agrees, the reopening the economy will have to be managed very carefully and in a methodical manner.

We can't just flick a switch and think things will go back to normal without the consequence of that curve bending upward again and spreading like wildfire causing even more economic devastation from the psychological toll on consumers. The best we can hope for is that leadership responds in a coordinated and thoughtful way as opposed to using a willy nilly haphazard approach by being too eager.

[Trey3216 15,346]

5 minutes ago, bolverk said:

This is undoubtedly true. They were absolutely necessary to flatten the curve as the number of cases were beginning to rise at an exponential rate with all of those dire predictions that showed the potential if action wasn't taken very quickly. Thankfully, it was. And, as I think everyone here agrees, the reopening the economy will have to be managed very carefully and in a methodical manner.

We can't just flick a switch and think things will go back to normal without the consequence of that curve bending upward again and spreading like wildfire causing even more economic devastation from the psychological toll on consumers. The best we can hope for is that leadership responds in a coordinated and thoughtful way as opposed to using a willy nilly haphazard approach by being too eager.

I don’t know about you, but I’m more likely to flick a booger and flip a switch.  

[Hmmm 155]

3 hours ago, Onboard 2.0 said:

That's been going around  for a while. There's a very good Youtube video (I found the source of the coronavirus) has been out there that makes just that case in a pretty matter of fact way with material right from Chinese website sources.

Yeah, RayDog posted a pretty good video with evidence to suggest it originated in the Wuhan lab, just blocks away from the wet market.  The most damning piece of evidence I found was how they posted job listing for a Corona researcher in November/December, then scrubbed the posting later along with the bio for their lead virology scientist (who I think is still missing).

Edited April 16, 2020 by Hmmm

[BurntOrange&White 39,931]

Once they say open it up, who here is going immediately to a restaurant, tossing their masks in the trash, and resuming life as before? Speaking for myself and my wife, both asthmatics, yeah not us. 
 
But what percentage of the population will go full steam ahead versus the percentage that is going to basically behave the same way until they feel safe, if they can do so financially? Is one without the other percentage enough for bars, restaurants, retail shopping to subsist? What about a lack of PPE for workers and companies? Lots of really hard questions and I haven’t seen anything resembling answers from state, local, or national leaders. I guess we’re gonna find out. We can’t stay closed much longer, but I’m not changing my behavior anytime soon. 

I’d say you’d be in the minority imo

[bigup2dahorns 3,343]

[bullzak 421]

For those who think things will never be the same, what if you knew that within 6 months there would be both widespread antibody testing and effective treatment for severe cases? 

I think antibody testing for sure, and feel that plasma or some offshoot has huge potential. 

An uneducated guess that we will be 75% there by October latest. Vaccine by summer 2021. 

If you consider that possibility your outlook gets brighter, yes? I think the worst has passed but the recovery will be much slower than anyone wants. 

That said, no sports or concerts in 2020 in any event. Beer and high fives at Wrigley next summer. No masks. 

[Trey3216 15,346]

1 minute ago, BurntEyes said:

I wouldn't say he's missing...Bob

Fify 

[Sbbruin 21,842]

2 minutes ago, bullzak said:

For those who think things will never be the same, what if you knew that within 6 months there would be both widespread antibody testing and effective treatment for severe cases? 

I think antibody testing for sure, and feel that plasma or some offshoot has huge potential. 

An uneducated guess that we will be 75% there by October latest. Vaccine by summer 2021. 

If you consider that possibility your outlook gets brighter, yes? I think the worst has passed but the recovery will be much slower than anyone wants. 

That said, no sports or concerts in 2020 in any event. Beer and high fives at Wrigley next summer. No masks. 

I can certainly live with this scenario.  Probably on the upper end of the good<--------->bad spectrrum.

[XYZ 2,154]

1 hour ago, Onboard 2.0 said:

I welcome scrutiny of this video. The guy seems to be on the up, and up. Coupled with his information gathering right from Chinese websites (before and after the pandemic started taking off).  It seems like a strong candidate for patient zero, and no there didn't seem to be any nefarious reason behind their research the various  Coronaviruses.  Is it coronaviruses or Corona-vir-eye ?

There’s also a documentary made by Epoch Times, which seems to be a newspaper founded by anti-communist Chinese people, so there could be an agenda there. But anyway, the Epoch Times documentary, which is like 49 minutes long, follows more or less the same trail as the guy in this video. I’m more inclined to believe this theory than not.

[utee94 15,811]

3 minutes ago, BurntEyes said:

I'd disagree. I think the reintegration will be sharply decided along two distinct lines.

The first and most prominent will be between varying socio-economic groups. My instinct tells me the less affluent folks will be more apt to forgo PPE and quicker to gather/group. This I believe will be true in inner city folks as well as very rural folks in the lower economic stratas. 

Second will be of a political division. It goes cloak very fast so I won't extrapolate further, but believe the division here on the Surly create a pretty clear picture of where those divisions lie.

I think those might be true, above a certain age.  But there's also going to be an age division.

Younger people are less fearful (or less careful) by nature, this is a truism.  So regardless of socioeconomic status or political bent, I think the early "outgoers" are going to skew toward the youngest.  High school and college kids, and young professionals.  There are large percentages within these populations that have never really followed non-congregating, shelter-in-place, stay-at-home guidance, anyway.  They'll be the first to go hit the bars and restaurants and movie theaters and retail stores.

I envy those kids-- it's going to be like the Griswolds at Wally World for them.

[Royalfan5 2,354]

For your daily livestock update. Cattle slaughter held steady around 80% capacity with beef values continuing their rally, we are about 5% below the recent high there, and not out of line for normal this time of year. Hogs stayed steady around 85% capacity, with pork values up solidly this AM, but well off the recent highs with bellies leading. CDC is in Sioux Falls trying to help Smithfield get going again. 

[SydneyCarton 48,076]

12 minutes ago, Bevo VIII said:

I’d say you’d be in the minority imo

Minority, maybe. I'd buy that we're an a percentile of...lets say 30%. But that's 30% of the population that would be spending out in bars, restaurants, movies, entertainment, etc. That's possibly enough to keep many entertainment venues from break even, which was the point I was attempting to make. We also have the luxury to do that, since I have work flexibility and my wife works at a school, and it's about to be their summer vacation. I don't know how that for us stacks up with the rest of the populace. 

[Loco 3,752]

18 minutes ago, BurntEyes said:

I wouldn't say he's missing... 

probably just ran out of gas ...

[tantric superman 4,667]

23 minutes ago, bullzak said:

If you consider that possibility your outlook gets brighter, yes? I think the worst has passed but the recovery will be much slower than anyone wants. 

Well, more of us are going to die, and most people I know haven't died, so I don't think the worst has passed from an individual perspective.

 

 

[rage-a-holic 4,382]

Can someone post a link to the "Shit we're doing to entertain our kids during lockdown" thread? Can't remember the actual name and I got some shit to donate.

[South Austin 52,463]

2 minutes ago, tantric superman said:

Well, more of us are going to die, and most people I know haven't died, so I don't think the worst has passed from an individual perspective.

Very good point.  We really need to flatten this whole death curve.

[South Austin 52,463]

Just now, rage-a-holic said:

Can someone post a link to the "Shit we're doing to entertain our kids during lockdown" thread? Can't remember the actual name and I got some shit to donate.

Pretty sure making your kids wash baseboards has already been thrown out there.

[Mitch Cumsteen 18,547]

22 hours ago, Royalfan5 said:

 If we can get some of the shackle space back next week, the current losses should be offset for the most part with heavier carcass weights. 

PM Vic Mackey

[utee94 15,811]

2 minutes ago, South Austin said:

Pretty sure making your kids wash baseboards has already been thrown out there.

Yup.  And for the first time ever, my kids can't wait to go back to school.

[rage-a-holic 4,382]

2 minutes ago, South Austin said:

Pretty sure making your kids wash baseboards has already been thrown out there.

It's a bunch of Power Wheels 12v Jeeps the kids have outgrown.

[South Austin 52,463]

Just now, rage-a-holic said:

It's a bunch of Power Wheels 12v Jeeps the kids have outgrown.

I see.  Well in that case, they should be old enough to wash your baseboards.

[Digdogger 1,344]

7 minutes ago, rage-a-holic said:

Can someone post a link to the "Shit we're doing to entertain our kids during lockdown" thread? Can't remember the actual name and I got some shit to donate.

 

[MNLonghornFUKM 8,817]

For those who think things will never be the same, what if you knew that within 6 months there would be both widespread antibody testing and effective treatment for severe cases? 
I think antibody testing for sure, and feel that plasma or some offshoot has huge potential. 
An uneducated guess that we will be 75% there by October latest. Vaccine by summer 2021. 
If you consider that possibility your outlook gets brighter, yes? I think the worst has passed but the recovery will be much slower than anyone wants. 
That said, no sports or concerts in 2020 in any event. Beer and high fives at Wrigley next summer. No masks. 

In the end I think the NFL and college will do exhaust everything. Whether fanless games, delayed start by a few months, whatever


I do think it’ll be a totally different world between now and by the time football season rolls around

[GreenspointTexas 9,600]

I dont think we have football or any type of sport until this time next year

 

You can test everyone u want, but the players, coaches, refs, managers, workers, etc all aint quarantining every game. As soon as one player or coach or whoever tests positive, any sport is done

 

Unless we starting football around march, there isnt going to be a season

[SydneyCarton 48,076]

Just now, GreenspointTexas said:

I dont think we have football or any type of sport until this time next year

 

You can test everyone u want, but the players, coaches, refs, managers, workers, etc all aint quarantining every game. As soon as one player or coach or whoever tests positive, any sport is done

 

Unless we starting football around march, there isnt going to be a season

now ask the players, refs, managers and workers if they’re done quarantining if the paychecks stop. Especially athletes leveraged with large, hungry entourages. Some won’t, but a huge fucking chunk will happily sign a waiver and get back to work. Surprisingly enough there isn’t much working from home for a football player or coach. And the nfl isn’t going to pay these guys indefinitely. So, yeah, you’re probably dead wrong on this one. College is different. But the nfl is a business. 
 

by the way, golf is already returning in June or July so guess what you lost that bet with yourself. 

[Constant 6,731]

https://www.nbcdfw.com/news/coronavirus/covid-19-kills-7-more-in-dallas-county-cloth-coverings-required-in-public-starting-saturday/2352635/
 

Dallas County requiring masks/cloth coverings in public starting Saturday. 

[LebongJames 1,801]

16 minutes ago, GreenspointTexas said:

I dont think we have football or any type of sport until this time next year

 

You can test everyone u want, but the players, coaches, refs, managers, workers, etc all aint quarantining every game. As soon as one player or coach or whoever tests positive, any sport is done

 

Unless we starting football around march, there isnt going to be a season

PGA already coming back in June without fans. NFL is playing. TV money outweighs everything. Ticket sales are huge but they will make plenty off just airing every game and selling ads.

[B00M 6,414]

Interesting contrast to the cruise ships... Most cases aboard aircraft carrier are symptom-free http://a.msn.com/01/en-us/BB12Jojz?oci

[Homesickhorn 2,202]

3 hours ago, Moby Ric said:

Just saw on the tele that unis are dropping the SAT and ACT requirements for incoming students in the fall of 2021.  My daughters SAT on June 6 just got cancelled yesterday.  But told us that we had first dibs on an August or October test.

Fify ol' chap.

[GreenspointTexas 9,600]

2 minutes ago, LebongJames said:

PGA already coming back in June without fans. NFL is playing. TV money outweighs everything. Ticket sales are huge but they will make plenty off just airing every game and selling ads.

The nfl may “play” but they sure as fuck not  even gonna make it through half the season

[LebongJames 1,801]

Crazy plan

Every team rents 2 hotels for the year and charters one plane with same crew.

Teams live in same hotel all year. With same chefs, house keepers, hotel staffs. Road trips every team uses same hotel. NFL pays to keep hotels and stadiums as clean as hospital. Staff at stadium and hotel monitored daily for temperature and wears PPE.

[closetojumping 62,604]

I don't see how there's really going to be much controversy, other than whatever gets ginned up politically, around the next steps. Anyone advocating what's happening now for much longer is delusional. Anyone worried that everything is magically going to open up and go back to normal is also living in fantasyland.

Churches/Mosques/Synagogues, movies theaters, sports arenas, playhouses, malls, subways, amusement parks, schools, anything else putting large throngs of people right on top of one another, closed until further notice. Sorry. 

Everything else, find your distance, don't physically touch one another, mask-up maybe, and get to it. Places like salons, restaurants, retail shops, half capacity and caveat emptor. 

Stop shitting yourself about doing things in sunlight and weather. Open up beaches with social distancin monitoring, same for parks. No one is catching this by tanning by someone else in the sand or by running by them on a jog.

Find treatments that make things even more open. 

Let the SydneyCartons and GreenspointTexas' of the world shelter-in-place until a vaccine is available, along with the olds. If you show symptoms, get help and stay away. 

There will be flare ups that require more vigilance and people will die at a higher pace than the flu, but generally speaking, the CFR even with shitty measurement for people under 50 is already low. Worse than the flu? Suck it up and deal with it if you catch it. I caught hand, foot, and mouth from my kids who got it at Legoland and ran a 104+ for 5 days and couldn't eat or drink a thing. I'll trade this for that brutality. 

And then watch everyone shriek here every time someone deigns to go outside and meet another family for dinner or a picnic. Sweden and Arkansas are basically already doing exactly all of this minus the laughing at dipshits on Surly. 

[Bozo_Casanova 26,444]

2 hours ago, Fastbreak said:

Singapore new cases

Monday - 328

Tuesday - 447

Wednesday -720

 

it has gotten into the massive foreign worker dormitories. 

I've seen those places and that would be bad. 

 

EDIT - I thought they closed most of them though. 

Edited April 16, 2020 by Bozo_Casanova

[Captainant 27,654]

8 minutes ago, B00M said:

Interesting contrast to the cruise ships... Most cases aboard aircraft carrier are symptom-free http://a.msn.com/01/en-us/BB12Jojz?oci

I'd say it's a fair bet your average sailor on a CV or CVN are in better physical condition than your average cruise-goer, and are less likely to show respiratory symptoms since they're stronger

[KYHorn 17,029]

20 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

I caught hand, foot, and mouth from my kids who got it at Legoland and ran a 104+ for 5 days and couldn't eat or drink a thing. I'll trade this for that brutality. 

My wife and I both got it from our kids 2 years ago the day we left for the Texas Maryland game in MD. She had it far worse than me. She's tough but was in tears walking around and couldn't grasp anything. It was a pretty miserable trip all around. Thanks, Herman.

[gmr548 16,576]

For those who think things will never be the same, what if you knew that within 6 months there would be both widespread antibody testing and effective treatment for severe cases? 
I think antibody testing for sure, and feel that plasma or some offshoot has huge potential. 
An uneducated guess that we will be 75% there by October latest. Vaccine by summer 2021. 
If you consider that possibility your outlook gets brighter, yes? I think the worst has passed but the recovery will be much slower than anyone wants. 
That said, no sports or concerts in 2020 in any event. Beer and high fives at Wrigley next summer. No masks. 

Yeah, if I knew that something that is a fantasy based on available information were true, it'd change the outlook.

Here in reality, there appears to have been no significant progress on therapeutic treatment. Vaccine by summer 21? Pharma's PR people, who are paid handsomely to put their employers in the best possible light, are saying it will be longer than that.

Mass antibody testing, maybe, I honestly don't know enough. But we've tested roughly one percent of the population for the virus in three months. This is a big country. A big world. Mass testing requires a scale we have not remotely approached. Getting there in six months seems... A bit rosy.

[RPM 26,318]

5 hours ago, workswithseed said:

It's Decatur, so obviously got it from asshole stopping to get gas on 380.

Nope. Decatur is 76426 and has about 12,000 ppl. It's probably some aggy working in DFW that brought it home.

[gmr548 16,576]

I dont think we have football or any type of sport until this time next year
 
You can test everyone u want, but the players, coaches, refs, managers, workers, etc all aint quarantining every game. As soon as one player or coach or whoever tests positive, any sport is done
 
Unless we starting football around march, there isnt going to be a season

I think the NFL will fight tooth and nail. College is different. Way more cooks in the kitchen. I think we might see NFL with no fans this fall. College I'd be shocked to see it at all.

[gmr548 16,576]

I don't see how there's really going to be much controversy, other than whatever gets ginned up politically, around the next steps. Anyone advocating what's happening now for much longer is delusional. Anyone worried that everything is magically going to open up and go back to normal is also living in fantasyland.
Churches/Mosques/Synagogues, movies theaters, sports arenas, playhouses, malls, subways, amusement parks, schools, anything else putting large throngs of people right on top of one another, closed until further notice. Sorry. 
Everything else, find your distance, don't physically touch one another, mask-up maybe, and get to it. Places like salons, restaurants, retail shops, half capacity and caveat emptor. 
Stop shitting yourself about doing things in sunlight and weather. Open up beaches with social distancin monitoring, same for parks. No one is catching this by tanning by someone else in the sand or by running by them on a jog.
Find treatments that make things even more open. 
Let the SydneyCartons and GreenspointTexas' of the world shelter-in-place until a vaccine is available, along with the olds. If you show symptoms, get help and stay away. 
There will be flare ups that require more vigilance and people will die at a higher pace than the flu, but generally speaking, the CFR even with shitty measurement for people under 50 is already low. Worse than the flu? Suck it up and deal with it if you catch it. I caught hand, foot, and mouth from my kids who got it at Legoland and ran a 104+ for 5 days and couldn't eat or drink a thing. I'll trade this for that brutality. 
And then watch everyone shriek here every time someone deigns to go outside and meet another family for dinner or a picnic. Sweden and Arkansas are basically already doing exactly all of this minus the laughing at dipshits on Surly. 

I generally agree, but aiming to be Arkansas in any way does cause one to reevaluate.

[SydneyCarton 48,076]

58 minutes ago, LebongJames said:

PGA already coming back in June without fans. NFL is playing. TV money outweighs everything. Ticket sales are huge but they will make plenty off just airing every game and selling ads.

Good point. Ad share for sporting events about to become super fucking expensive. 

[B00M 6,414]

46 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

I caught hand, foot, and mouth from my kids who got it at Legoland and ran a 104+ for 5 days and couldn't eat or drink a thing. I'll trade this for that brutality.

You got HFM as an adult? Your immune system sounds compromised bruh. To be safe, you should start gargling whiskey/hand soap/bleach immediately