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Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

InkaUtexas

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PenelopeWitherspoon

PenelopeWitherspoon 19,100

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Two separate research efforts have concluded it's most likely the virus showed up in NYC in February and was largely imported from Europe.
https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/491949-new-york-coronavirus-outbreak-came-from-europe-studies-show
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/08/science/new-york-coronavirus-cases-europe-genomes.html
So this thing had not been floating around unchecked in NYC for months by the time things started to get bad. It's obviously very contagious with the ability to really strain healthcare capacity quickly.
Do agree - I think everyone does - that it is far more widespread that testing numbers indicate. That's why testing, both for infections and for antibodies, is so critical to getting public life going again. We really don't know what we're dealing with right now and we really should have more information before we make a move like that.
The problem is that is based on KNOWN cases. We believe the infected numbers are significantly higher than the reported known cases. So while that may be true for the known cases, there are still a lot of folks untested, so who knows the origin of those.
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Uncle Boobs
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Against my better judgment and several beers deep, I have taken you up on this, potentially ending my streak of totally worthless posts. I have done 3 and 7 day averages only on the Worldometer data. 

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Trey3216

Trey3216 15,346

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37 minutes ago, HenryJames said:

It’s not a YouTube video made by a fucking cult, but maybe he knows what he’s talking about.

Or, you know, none of us are claiming that the virus was made in a lab, but rather, escaped a lab after a study animal from the wild carrying the virus passed it to a lab worker.  
 

but maybe you and a host of others can’t fucking read or contextualize what we’ve been talking about. 

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Treefidy

Treefidy 1,463

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1 hour ago, Pancho said:

#FloridaMorons trending nationally on twitter.

 

Sidenote--just left Spec's where I overheard a guy ask where the tonic water was.  Specs bro told him where it was and said they couldn't keep that shit on the shelf.  Guy asking for tonic saying it was all over facebook.  I'm curious what "it" he was referring to?  Some madeup cure?

Quinine slows growth and reproduction of malaria parasite in the red blood cells doesn't kill it, so as a malaria treatment there was often relapse weeks later.  I personally think zinc kills viruses, and this does not solve the zinc absorption issue in he cells where covid19 reproduces, that's the mechanism chloroquine provides for the zinc as I understand it.

ive heard zinc will kill the herp, so maybe we can send some zinc to raydog so he can do some official surly clinical experiments on some of his girlfriends co-workers.  Bound to be a plethora of candidates, he can crush some zinc pills up and spit on it, slather it on his subjects herps then document everything with lots of pics.  Of course he can publish all his finding right here, though is NSFW still necessary?   

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Onboard 2.0

Onboard 2.0 9,083

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19 minutes ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:
3 hours ago, Dahobbs said:
Reacted in January doesn't mean shutdown. We should have reacted. We should have been preparing in January and February and early March.  We only had to shutdown because we didn't react properly. 
You can generate every single current case (reported and estimated) by starting with one case in mid January and doubling it ever 3-5 days (the observed doubling period). I doubt NYC had more than a handful of cases in January. 

I think we had more than we will ever know, California too. Chinese New Year. Folks from China were still coming in, and both NYC and the West Coast have direct flights from Wuhan.

Yeah there were cases there before whatever patient 0 is being claimed. There's no way there wasn't only one case in Dec or early January.

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Pato del Muerto

Pato del Muerto 52,489

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3 hours ago, gmr548 said:

I'm not disagreeing with you. Yes, the oldest millenials were eligible to enlist at 9/11. Most weren't. Obviously the number of eligible increased with time, but there was never a huge recruitment surge and there was no real higher calling to enlist for much of the generation - it was appealing if it had always inherently been something you wanted to do, or as a way to get a job and a signing bonus and "get out." The numbers bear that out with a bump during the 2008 recession. Same as it ever was.

And still, much of the frontline combat in Afghanistan or Iraq was fought by millennials, because that's who gets dropped on the front lines: 18-22 year old kids who just signed up. Same as it ever was.

US military had been cut by a third by the time any millennial came of age. Any "WhAt PeRcEnTaGe Of ThEm HaVe SeRveD????" nonsense from internet tough guys is already dumb, and especially dumb when you consider that.

FT_19.09.10_VeteransDemographics_US-mili

 

Proof that millennials don’t volunteer at nearly the same rate as gen x and before!

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Royalfan5

Royalfan5 2,354

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44 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:


Florida Cali and Texas are saving the country to be honest. Imagine all 3 states who have substantially more people than NY and NJ were on their lines of growth.

I thought Florida would be bad but that isn’t the case. Hopefully weather has something to do with it. I was looking at something that says anything above like 40% humidity is terrible for the virus. Also sunlight really does wonders on it too. Needs a cool and low humid environment to be lethal

That last sentence is why it’s going apeshit in packing plants 

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Onboard 2.0

Onboard 2.0 9,083

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14 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

Or, you know, none of us are claiming that the virus was made in a lab, but rather, escaped a lab after a study animal from the wild carrying the virus passed it to a lab worker.  
 

but maybe you and a host of others can’t fucking read or contextualize what we’ve been talking about. 

That's the thing, No one is claiming super villains created it. The claim is lab protocol got sloppy, and it slipped out somehow.  Not that hard to believe, but it doesn't fit some folks narrative.

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VABuckeye

VABuckeye 2,472

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Just now, David Dennison said:

And the battle flags of the Army of Northern Virginia?

 

You have photos?  Whitmer CLAIMS they were there but there doesn't seem to be evidence that they were.  I have seen many photos of the flag of the United States of America in images.

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Pato del Muerto

Pato del Muerto 52,489

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17 minutes ago, Treefidy said:

Quinine slows growth and reproduction of malaria parasite in the red blood cells doesn't kill it, so as a malaria treatment there was often relapse weeks later.  I personally think zinc kills viruses, and this does not solve the zinc absorption issue in he cells where covid19 reproduces, that's the mechanism chloroquine provides for the zinc as I understand it.

ive heard zinc will kill the herp, so maybe we can send some zinc to raydog so he can do some official surly clinical experiments on some of his girlfriends co-workers.  Bound to be a plethora of candidates, he can crush some zinc pills up and spit on it, slather it on his subjects herps then document everything with lots of pics.  Of course he can publish all his finding right here, though is NSFW still necessary?   

It’s laypeople that puts together that chloroquine helps with malaria and might help with covid, and tonic water/quinine helps with malaria THEREFORE it might also help with covid. 
also, quinine is phosphorescent so if you drink some and then later pee under a black light, it might glow. 

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Treefidy

Treefidy 1,463

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14 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

Or, you know, none of us are claiming that the virus was made in a lab, but rather, escaped a lab after a study animal from the wild carrying the virus passed it to a lab worker.  
 

but maybe you and a host of others can’t fucking read or contextualize what we’ve been talking about. 

I'm not claiming it was made in a lab but there are several scientists who are doing exactly that.  And according to them the Australian virologist is correct that the previously studied bat virus is not the progenitor virus.  That would more likely be SARS1 with sequences inserted from the other bat virus and possibly HIV.

i don't know enough about the underlying science to say if the evidence provided means its natural or manipulated, but the evidence is interesting and at face value points to the very real possibility this was modified in the lab.  Now, when you go look at what they were studying, at that lab and the papers being published by the lead researcher over the past decade....  well, it becomes clear that "no evidence" is an absolutely false statement.  There is evidence and it's significant, though that doesn't automatically make it true.  

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Onboard 2.0

Onboard 2.0 9,083

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Just now, David Dennison said:

Or a national testing policy that is adequately funded and administered in a manner promised well over a month ago.

DANGER DANGER WILL ROBINSON..... POLITICAL TRAP POLITICAL TRAP....

Jeebus there ya go. Do we just make a list of things we've been promised over the years, and decades that just never met deadlines ?  Would that make you splooge all over yourself ?

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Onboard 2.0

Onboard 2.0 9,083

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2 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

It’s laypeople that puts together that chloroquine helps with malaria and might help with covid, and tonic water/quinine helps with malaria THEREFORE it might also help with covid. 
also, quinine is phosphorescent so if you drink some and then later pee under a black light, it might glow. 

There's going to be serious malevolent trouble if I can't get my tonic water for Hendricks, and tonics this afternoon.

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19,069

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26 minutes ago, VABuckeye said:

It wasn't a Nazi flag.  It was used to make a point about the ridiculous rules being made and enforced by the governor of Michigan.

spacer.png

Yep. Completely different thing and anyone saying it’s a nazi flag is a disingenuous shit bag that should be kicked in the cunt 

showing up at a protest waiving a nazi flag=‘s condoning the worst in humanity

showing up and shouting someone else down as a nazi =‘s acting kind of 

like a dick b/c you are calling your opponent human scum. Night and day fucking different. Thanks for pointing this out. 

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Somnio

Somnio 751

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https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/04/we-are-probably-only-a-tenth-of-the-way-through-the-pandemic.html

CORONAVIRUS APR. 17, 2020

We Are Probably Only One-Tenth of the Way Through This Pandemic

 

We are, finally, beginning to see some real plans from people with the power to enact them. On Tuesday, California governor Gavin Newsom unveiled a sort of road map for a gradual “reopening” of the state — including benchmarks for testing and hospital capacity, and continued social-distancing guidelines and even temperature checks. A handful of serious, sobering national proposals have been put forward by think tanks and the like in the U.S., and the White House has produced a set of guidelines to govern a gradual, region-by-region pullback from full-economy quarantine. In Germany, Chancellor Angela Merkel announced a similar blueprint (and gave a memorable illustration of the terrors of exponential growth in a pandemic). Coming alongside news from hot spots like New York that new hospitalizations and even deaths may be plateauing or even declining, the plans are a little flicker of light at the end of the quarantine tunnel. Indeed, over just the last few days, Americans have grown less worried, and more optimistic, about the coronavirus pandemic.

But getting out of the lockdown — and out of your shelter-in-place bunker — is not the beginning of the end of the pandemic. It is only the end of the beginning — the very brief beginning of what seems likely to be an epically long saga of disease, fear, and uncertainty.

There are, practically speaking, three paths out of the coronavirus crisis, to a way of life that resembles the one interrupted by COVID-19. The first is a vaccine. The second is effective treatment for the sick — not just effective at the margin, but so effective that catching the disease becomes a considerably less worrisome prospect for even those with comorbidities. The third is through herd immunity, when enough of the population has acquired COVID-19 antibodies that even with a return to “normal” life, there wouldn’t be enough opportunities for disease transmission for the virus to continue circulating through the population.

You have probably heard quite a lot in the past few weeks about testing — in particular the need to deploy widespread testing and possibly what’s called “contact tracing” alongside it, to identify not just those who are sick but those they’ve been in contact with, as well. But a widespread testing regimen — or those “test and trace” programs — isn’t a path out of the pandemic, only out of lockdown. It doesn’t bring us clear of the disease, it is simply a method of waiting in relative safety and security, allowing us to live somewhat more openly, though still under the ever-present threat of infection, until the arrival of one of the other three end points.

Here are the timelines for each of the three. The most optimistic projection for vaccines is that they begin to be available this fall; other reputable estimates suggest between one and two years from now. A two-year development cycle would be unprecedented speed for any vaccine, and, while scientists are quite optimistic, no vaccine has ever been developed for a coronavirus before; onto each timeline you’d have to add some amount of time for rollout and administration.

The treatment picture is murkier, but the drugs being tested today are repurposed ones, not designed to combat COVID-19 but deployed on the chance they might help. One in particular, remdesivir, is showing some real promise, but in general it is hard to bet confidently on repurposed drugs to be miracle cures of the kind that dramatically change the clinical shape of the disease and its treatment. Serological treatments offer some promise, but testing is only in the earliest stages. And the drugs likely to really “cure” the disease are just notions in a lab, at this point.

That leaves herd immunity. Epidemiologists tell us it requires between 60 to 80 percent of the population to have antibodies. At the moment, though, lack of testing means we don’t have a clear picture of the spread of the disease; a generous rough estimate for how many Americans have been exposed is 5 percent. While there are some reasons to hope that the exposure could be significantly higher, 5 percent would be more than ten times higher than the number of known cases, and would be in line with large-scale serological surveys in Holland (where the disease has been relatively widespread), suggesting that 3 percent of the population had antibodies. Others projections suggest that the U.K. is only 5 to 6 percent through the course of its pandemic, and recent models estimate an immunity level of about 6 percent across seven European countries. And it means, taking that generous figure for disease exposure and the low-end threshold for herd immunity, we would need 12 times more exposure than we’ve had to this point — in other words, that we are only one-12th of the way through this crisis.

That may sound bleak, and there are some indications that the population spread could be much more broad. But assuming no wild underestimate of total asymptomatic cases, one-12th of the way through the crisis is a very optimistic projection, if not quite a best-case scenario. It is possible that even less of the public has been exposed — perhaps one percent or lower. At that level of exposure, we could be only one-80th of the way through the pandemic, requiring 80 times more infection and exposure to attain herd immunity than we have had to this point.

Now, disease spread is not linear, which means 80 times more exposure doesn’t necessarily mean the pandemic has to last 80 times as long as it already has. But it does mean, probably, that to reach herd immunity many, many more people will have to get sick — some of those very sick, and some of those lethally so — before we find ourselves, in any meaningful way, in the clear. And in flattening the curve to limit the burden on hospitals and health-care workers, we have slowed, rather than accelerated, the exponential spread — that is why the charts of new cases, new hospitalizations, and deaths are all looking relatively encouraging lately. This is, inarguably, a good thing — it has allowed us to avoid the enormous amount of suffering that would have come about if our health-care capacity was breached, with health-care workers needing to triage their equipment and attention and simply abandon some patients to die without proper care, as they had to in Italy. But while we seem to have avoided that tragedy, and that horror, enough to peek forward and see the possibility of life after quarantine, that isn’t the same as saying we are on the other side of this. In all likelihood, we have a very, very long way to go. On April 14, in the journal Science, Harvard researchers suggested the epidemic could last through 2022 — not just into the fall, and the election, but all the way into the midterms.

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ChiTownDoc

ChiTownDoc 21,152

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3 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

this guy is a moron. 

Probably.  But social unrest and people starting to violate shelter in place etc will definitely make it last a lot longer.  We just don’t have the discipline as a society to do what it takes.  That’s the sad truth.  

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InkaUtexas

InkaUtexas 25,907

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2 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Probably.  But social unrest and people starting to violate shelter in place etc will definitely make it last a lot longer.  We just don’t have the discipline as a society to do what it takes.  That’s the sad truth.  

Yep.

On a call with a EU based medical group the analogy used was this event is similar to WW2. This is 1940 and we are facing the Blitz. Industry is just beginning to gear up and it will. It will hurt for a bit, people need to adjust, but there will be a solution. Not everyone will be impacted at the same time, but at all times some areas will be. The new normal for the next few years. 

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ChiTownDoc

ChiTownDoc 21,152

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2 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Yep.

On a call with a EU based medical group the analogy used was this event is similar to WW2. This is 1940 and we are facing the Blitz. Industry is just beginning to gear up and it will. It will hurt for a bit, people need to adjust, but there will be a solution. Not everyone will be impacted at the same time, but at all times some areas will be. The new normal for the next few years. 

Yep.  That was before stupid voices could amplify themselves through the interwebz.  Bunch of soft pussies these days...

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David Dennison

David Dennison 18,854

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Just now, InkaUtexas said:

Yep.

On a call with a EU based medical group the analogy used was this event is similar to WW2. This is 1940 and we are facing the Blitz. Industry is just beginning to gear up and it will. It will hurt for a bit, people need to adjust, but there will be a solution. Not everyone will be impacted at the same time, but at all times some areas will be. The new normal for the next few years. 

This. Life in America is going to be very different for quite some time. 

I am interested to see when states and localities give the OK for mass attendance at sporting events again. I think that will be a sign that things are back to normal.

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ChiTownDoc

ChiTownDoc 21,152

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2 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

This. Life in America is going to be very different for quite some time. 

I am interested to see when states and localities give the OK for mass attendance at sporting events again. I think that will be a sign that things are back to normal.

So, well into 2021.  
 

Edit:  That’s the odds on bet.  I’m happy to be wrong. 

Edited by ChiTownDoc
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Dbeasy

Dbeasy 15,047

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Or, you know, none of us are claiming that the virus was made in a lab, but rather, escaped a lab after a study animal from the wild carrying the virus passed it to a lab worker.  
 
but maybe you and a host of others can’t fucking read or contextualize what we’ve been talking about. 


What if there was a bat man in that lab?

72ff9cae48c4607566a979ccafe88ea6.jpg
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