Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

[Dahobbs 17526]

10 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

hopefully people don't project models in the future that have no basis in reality.

What? Modeling isnt so much about prediction as about understanding interactions. Here, the model's purpose was to understand how different strategies for handling the pandemic could affect the outcome. If someone misunderstands that purpose, it is on them and not the model. I'm not aware of anyone or any model seriously suggesting that anything close to 2 million people would die if we enacted shutdowns. 

Here, there is an xkcd for this:

mousover:  "Remember, models aren't for telling you facts, they're for exploring dynamics. This model apparently explores time travel."

[InkaUtexas 25861]

25 minutes ago, VABuckeye said:

And they are salty about the recruits we’re taking from them.  Their forums are glorious right now. 

Oh please post here! We need the uplift and I don't have time to search there. 

 

[Ignatius 4017]

2 hours ago, Onboard 2.0 said:

Onward christian soooooooool-diers... marrrr-ching off toooooo war...

Marching as to war...

[akhornfan 4]

So now all those that were insisting on doomsday death totals were just presenting potential models?  Right. 

[VABuckeye 2472]

11 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Oh please post here! We need the uplift and I don't have time to search there. 

 

Check out the OU recruiting thread on the Recruiting Board. Someone has pasted a lot of the posts. 
 

Also note that it’s already been said in the thread  that Ohio State must be cheating because there’s no was they could actually be recruiting that well this year without cheating. 

[jinx 2635]

8 minutes ago, VABuckeye said:

Check out the OU recruiting thread on the Recruiting Board. Someone has pasted a lot of the posts. 
 

Also note that it’s already been said in the thread  that Ohio State must be cheating because there’s no was they could actually be recruiting that well this year without cheating. 

The fact that the Buckeyes are cheating may be the only thing I believe in the last four pages.  

[KYHorn 17014]

1 hour ago, Bevo said:

Oh, so you think costs have come down from $40 per test and $100K per machine? They haven't. Why would you think prices would decline? You probably don't have any clue. You just want to argue. How do you think market research is done? It is either collected from available resources (I use to have paid subscriptions of epidemiology data but I don't have any need now, and I would get in significant trouble for posting the info on the web anyway) or primary research needs to be collected through surveys and analysis.

Anyway, you have $40 test reagents and VOX states "One of the lower-end benchmarks estimates the US will need 750,000 tests per week. The high-end proposal, from Nobel laureate economist Paul Romer, starts at 22 million tests per day and goes up. And not just one test per person, but repeated testing over time". So $22 million tests a day at $40 per test comes to costs of $880 million a day or $320 billion per year just on testing and not including the cost of finding, developing, and training personnel, the cost of creating facilities, and the time to scale-up to these numbers.

The bottom-line is that good antibody tests will be the only viable option. But you want proof from who exactly to confirm what I am saying or Chitowndoc is saying? This board? Dr. Fauci? And why should I care whether you, a dumbass politics poster, believes me or anyone else? You really should just go away and realize that you are out of your element and a detriment to humanity.

He's looking for a fight so that's all he finds. You were far more patient than most would be, but I'm grateful for the info that came from it.

Edited April 20, 2020 by KYHorn

[Surly Bevo 24908]

Play stupid CR games win stupid CR prizes.

[Dahobbs 17526]

42 minutes ago, akhornfan said:

So now all those that were insisting on doomsday death totals were just presenting potential models?  Right. 

Yes? They were presenting potential scenarios (the Imperial College Report covered doing nothing and a variety of mitigation and suppression strategies). Why did you think they were anything different? What did you think the purpose of the models were if not to advise on how to avoid the worst case scenarios?

Hell, the Imperial College Report was explicit that it didnt think the "do nothing" scenario was a likely outcome. It was just provided for context. From the report:

"Last, it is highly likely that there would be significant spontaneous changes in population behaviour even in the absence of government-mandated interventions.  . .

In the (unlikely) absence of any control measures or spontaneous changes in individual behaviour, we would expect a peak in mortality . . ."

I really dont understand the need to misrepresent the modeling or the reports. 

Edited April 20, 2020 by Dahobbs

[TwiceHorn 31438]

1 hour ago, Bevo said:

Oh, so you think costs have come down from $40 per test and $100K per machine? They haven't. Why would you think prices would decline? You probably don't have any clue. You just want to argue. How do you think market research is done? It is either collected from available resources (I use to have paid subscriptions of epidemiology data but I don't have any need now, and I would get in significant trouble for posting the info on the web anyway) or primary research needs to be collected through surveys and analysis.

Anyway, you have $40 test reagents and VOX states "One of the lower-end benchmarks estimates the US will need 750,000 tests per week. The high-end proposal, from Nobel laureate economist Paul Romer, starts at 22 million tests per day and goes up. And not just one test per person, but repeated testing over time". So $22 million tests a day at $40 per test comes to costs of $880 million a day or $320 billion per year just on testing and not including the cost of finding, developing, and training personnel, the cost of creating facilities, and the time to scale-up to these numbers.

The bottom-line is that good antibody tests will be the only viable option. But you want proof from who exactly to confirm what I am saying or Chitowndoc is saying? This board? Dr. Fauci? And why should I care whether you, a dumbass politics poster, believes me or anyone else? You really should just go away and realize that you are out of your element and a detriment to humanity.

 

You seem pretty knowledgeable about these biotech subjects.

How is it that South Korea and some other places seem to have proliferated testing?  Are they not using PCR tests?  Low-accuracy?  Or is it simply a per-capita matter and anyone would have trouble generating the number of tests we need in the US?

[gmr548 16576]

For what it's worth, a commercial bakery in Abilene decided to pay a private lab to test all of its 500+ employees. Of the test results reported 48/336 are positive, roughly a 14 percent prevalence. 175 are still pending. That of course would not include anyone who may have been asymptomatically infected previously though I don't know how big that number can realistically be.

For shits and giggles, if we assume every positive has already been identified and no one else has been exposed and recovered, 48/511 would be 9.4 percent. 

9.4 percent of the TX population of 29,000,000 is about 2,700,000. If you want to take 14 percent, that is a hair over 4,000,000.

https://www.reporternews.com/story/news/2020/04/12/coronavirus-covid-19-total-confirmed-cases-abilene-big-country-texas-recovered-impact-affect/2976541001/

[Js1 85275]

30 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

Yes? They were presenting potential scenarios (the Imperial College Report covered doing nothing and a variety of mitigation and suppression strategies). Why did you think they were anything different? What did you think the purpose of the models were if not to advise on how to avoid the worst case scenarios?

Hell, the Imperial College Report was explicit that it didnt think the "do nothing" scenario was a likely outcome. It was just provided for context. From the report:

"Last, it is highly likely that there would be significant spontaneous changes in population behaviour even in the absence of government-mandated interventions.  . .

In the (unlikely) absence of any control measures or spontaneous changes in individual behaviour, we would expect a peak in mortality . . ."

I really dont understand the need to misrepresent the modeling or the reports. 

You’re responding to CTJ’s cum rag. 

[Dahobbs 17526]

7 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

For what it's worth, a commercial bakery in Abilene decided to pay a private lab to test all of its 500+ employees. Of the test results reported 48/336 are positive, roughly a 14 percent prevalence. 175 are still pending. That of course would not include anyone who may have been asymptomatically infected previously though I don't know how big that number can realistically be.

For shits and giggles, if we assume every positive has already been identified and no one else has been exposed and recovered, 48/511 would be 9.4 percent. 

9.4 percent of the TX population of 29,000,000 is about 2,700,000. If you want to take 14 percent, that is a hair over 4,000,000.

https://www.reporternews.com/story/news/2020/04/12/coronavirus-covid-19-total-confirmed-cases-abilene-big-country-texas-recovered-impact-affect/2976541001/

Well, of course, assuming those folks all work in the same buildings, you'd expect a relatively high percentage to be infected if even one of them is. I dont think that tells you anything about the population generally. 

Edited April 20, 2020 by Dahobbs

[gmr548 16576]

4 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

Well, of course, assuming those folks all work in the same buildings, you'd expect a relatively high percentage to be infected if even one of them is. I dont think that tells you anything about the population generally. 

Certainly, hence the shits and giggles bit. It's one of the few full samples of a population outside of the people that meet criteria and are recommended by a physician, so figured I'd throw it out there. Obviously I don't think there are 4,000,000 cases wandering around TX right now.

 

[InkaUtexas 25861]

 

[Modessit 5598]

I really dont understand the need to misrepresent the modeling or the reports. 

You forget that death sells in the news business? If they say that US death toll will be between zero and 330 million, the next day all of the news shows will be screaming "330 MILLION COULD DIE!" They ALWAYS run with the worst- case scenario if it gets them eyeballs. Throw in different stations with competing political agendas and you'll hear everything from stay calm to "you might want to start eating the neighbors".

It can also be a tool. If you think 250k might die if you do nothing, then you scream the 2 million number everywhere to get people to take it seriously so that you can eventually limit it to 100k or less. Fear is a great motivator and often works better than the truth. They can always backtrack later or claim that their actions prevented the worst-case and you should trust them because they saved you.

[justhookit 4191]

1 hour ago, gmr548 said:

For what it's worth, a commercial bakery in Abilene decided to pay a private lab to test all of its 500+ employees. Of the test results reported 48/336 are positive, roughly a 14 percent prevalence. 175 are still pending. That of course would not include anyone who may have been asymptomatically infected previously though I don't know how big that number can realistically be.

For shits and giggles, if we assume every positive has already been identified and no one else has been exposed and recovered, 48/511 would be 9.4 percent. 

9.4 percent of the TX population of 29,000,000 is about 2,700,000. If you want to take 14 percent, that is a hair over 4,000,000.

https://www.reporternews.com/story/news/2020/04/12/coronavirus-covid-19-total-confirmed-cases-abilene-big-country-texas-recovered-impact-affect/2976541001/

Last week the entire state of Texas was running @10% positive test rate. Of sick people. I don’t think what you posted will hold up in court.

[GringoSalado 1651]

1 hour ago, InkaUtexas said:

 

They wanted to get more people sick (herd immunity).

More people got sick.

Seems like they succeeded.

[justhookit 4191]

6 hours ago, ChiTownDoc said:

And on the testing I have no idea how anyone can make blanket statements just saying 'testing'.  Testing what?  Who?  Which type of test, antibody vs PCR?  Just broadly saying there's enough testing is asinine and flat our false.

Nursing homes / long term centers now are being told, treat every admit like a positive.  So in many buildings, where it's possible, you isolate admits for 14 days, and if they show no signs move them to a regular floor.  The truth is if there was enough testing, we'd literally be blanketing long term care with testing - as in the entire population of workers and residents.  This has happened but in very few places. That's for any city with serious spread - like all of Chicagoland and some areas in Texas. 

Also, as many physicians define 'enough', it's can I, specifically, test a patient that comes in my ER.  That's gotten MUCH better, and it may be enough.  But overall testing includes a shitload more than that.  One - most experts would agree accurate antibody testing is more important to truly open up the economy vs PCR C19 testing.  Also current PCR C19 testing takes a long time to get results, like several days. If we want to re-open on a broad scale you need rapid point of care testing - Abbott has the lab but they can't produce the machines fast enough...the technology is there.   And the antibody testing is of horrible quality - either too many false positives as the testing is sensitive for any Coronavirus or not sensitive enough and missing patients who we verified multiple times as having had C19.  

I'll screenshot a doc on the frontlines in Lubbock and his thoughts on testing currently.  

But yelling at eachother about 'enough testing' without specifying is moronic. 

I mean no offense but you seem to have missed most of the origin of the testing argument (it was about PCR) and you are posrepping posts on the CR thread celebrating someone dying from this because they have a different opinion than you. in short, ou sucks

[pacman 7355]

7 hours ago, ChiTownDoc said:

 

How has the acquisition of ppe been for your practice and your contacts?

 

Reading firsthand the issue NY healthcare staff are having to checj out ppe with expected usage of weeks or more beyond standard practice. Obviously, this puts them at considerable risk.

[pacman 7355]

Planet Money did an interesting show on how Illinois got masks. They got outbid by Louisiana by over $2 million, but the rep sold to Illinois because he lived there and it was his original promise to Illinois.

[Homercles 10205]

9 hours ago, Bevo said:

I might be one of the few experts on this subject on this site. I was an upper level manager for a basic research company when PCR was coming onto the market and brought the technology into the company. I also brought in organic chemistry which was responsible for purification products and sequencing products. Later, I worked in business development for a monoclonal antibody company for human therapeutics and then I worked for an IHC division of Roche and consulted in the pharmaceutical industry before changing careers so I could work directly with patients.

Or regional sales coordinator for the third largest distributor of bunk and trundle beds

[Onboard 2.0 9083]

7 hours ago, Ignatius said:

Marching as to war...

I haven't sung that tune in many a Sunday. Hope I don't go to Hell (for that at least).

[Bevo 13565]

7 hours ago, TwiceHorn said:

You seem pretty knowledgeable about these biotech subjects.

How is it that South Korea and some other places seem to have proliferated testing?  Are they not using PCR tests?  Low-accuracy?  Or is it simply a per-capita matter and anyone would have trouble generating the number of tests we need in the US?

Everyone started with PCR tests. That was all that was available.

South Korea did contract tracing from the beginning of its outbreak. At the early stages of the pandemic, the prevalence rate of the infection was low, so it limited the numbers of contacts that needed to be traced. That made it cheaper and faster to conduct contract tracing. Doing this in the US would still require mass testing as well as information collection to limit the Covid-19 outbreak.

But besides that, South Korea is the size of New York State but with a population much higher (54 M). I think we could have shut down NY especially since all the flights were predominantly coming into LaGuardia, Newark and JFK. Plus, South Korean's are more compliant than Americans and it is easier to get them to follow the rules and limit the spread. Finally, their government made the reagents and packaged them rather than buying them from industry.

Although it is generally working for South Korea, it remains to be seen whether they can continue this until a vaccine arrives. It hasn't been so successful in Singapore. As soon as the government relaxed, the disease began to spread. After this is all over, we can see what the tallies are for lost lives, costs, and economic impact to see the winners and losers. Currently, South Korea is the only non-isolated country that has been successful but who knows if that trend will continue up until a vaccine is developed. NY will be back much sooner than that.

[gmr548 16576]

Last week the entire state of Texas was running @10% positive test rate. Of sick people. I don’t think what you posted will hold up in court.

What does the phrase "for shits and giggles" mean to you?

[Trey3216 15344]

4 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

What does the phrase "for shits and giggles" mean to you?

“You was fartin’ in the bathtub, laughin your ass off”

[T&T’s Dad 32]

On 4/18/2020 at 5:18 PM, Enchubben said:

Here is a listing of multiple places to get tested in NW Harris county. Prescreening required for the private locations as they want to test symptomatic patients. 

 

Excel Urgent Cares have testing as well...

[Armybrat 40822]

10 hours ago, Dahobbs said:

What? Modeling isnt so much about prediction as about understanding interactions. Here, the model's purpose was to understand how different strategies for handling the pandemic could affect the outcome. If someone misunderstands that purpose, it is on them and not the model. I'm not aware of anyone or any model seriously suggesting that anything close to 2 million people would die if we enacted shutdowns. 

Here, there is an xkcd for this:

mousover:  "Remember, models aren't for telling you facts, they're for exploring dynamics. This model apparently explores time travel."

Just like the tv weather guessers.

[Neonmoon 38129]

Are we getting closer to the "Only 50,000 died, we shouldn't have shut down for this, it's overblown" part of the curve, which was only possible because of the shut down? 

[Iceman 2693]

10 hours ago, Dahobbs said:

What? Modeling isnt so much about prediction as about understanding interactions. Here, the model's purpose was to understand how different strategies for handling the pandemic could affect the outcome. If someone misunderstands that purpose, it is on them and not the model. I'm not aware of anyone or any model seriously suggesting that anything close to 2 million people would die if we enacted shutdowns. 

 

The point of contention was proposing that 2mm people might die if we did NOT shut things down.

That, and the alleged shutdowns have been about as effective as using a colander for an oilpan on your car motor.

[freyguy 4262]

alleged shutdowns?  You mean this whole time the shutdowns have been a farce?  But it looks so real to me when I drive around and see all the stores and parks closed!  Thank you for pointing this out to us.  Hallelujah, I see the light!!!  Off I go to Baskin Robbins!

[B00M 6413]

16 hours ago, Royalfan5 said:

For a comparison sake, the city of Lincoln which around 285k, the gov’t says we can test 150 per day with 2 day turnaround, and that about 60-65 a day have been turning up for testing. Been averaging about 4-5 positives a day. 

Just 4-5 per day? Contact tracing needs to be happening

[Cheeseweasel 26438]

6 minutes ago, freyguy said:

You mean this whole time the shutdowns have been a farce? 

The 15 minutes it takes me to get to work is the new normal. Yeah!

[Royalfan5 2353]

12 minutes ago, B00M said:

Just 4-5 per day? Contact tracing needs to be happening

I think they're trying to. The big spike day was when a multigenerational household all tested positive, and it seems like the bulk that isn't the same house hold, is either 20 year olds or 60 year olds 

[Js1 85275]

28 minutes ago, freyguy said:

alleged shutdowns?  You mean this whole time the shutdowns have been a farce?  But it looks so real to me when I drive around and see all the stores and parks closed!  Thank you for pointing this out to us.  Hallelujah, I see the light!!!  Off I go to Baskin Robbins!

Wake up sheeple! 

[CHIEF 5076]

More info from Paul Romer:

https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2020/03/31/824103765/the-case-for-more-federal-action-to-combat-covid-19

and the real reason that we have inadequate testing:

Economists usually like it when the market provides solutions. But building factories, buying machines, training workers, and doing everything else it takes to produce massive quantities of medical equipment on an aggressively short timeline will cost a lot. And, Romer says, without government intervention, companies won't do this on their own.

That's because corporate America naturally worries that demand for this equipment will evaporate once the crisis recedes and that even during the crisis, they might not be able to charge much for it. With historically high demand and limited supply, the market's natural response is sky-high prices. Everybody hates them, but high prices provide an incentive for manufacturers to produce. Yet, Romer says, "the reality is our political system, our emotions, will not let companies charge like ten times as much for the masks right now as we're trying to get a surge in production. So that's why the market can't do its job. We won't let prices do what they have to do."

 

It's the same reason the guy in North Richland Hills isn't busting his ass to make surgical masks, as soon as the crisis is over, the US medical industry goes back to buying Chinese made products.

CHIEF

[Onboard 2.0 9083]

1 hour ago, Neonmoon said:

Are we getting closer to the "Only 50,000 died, we shouldn't have shut down for this, it's overblown" part of the curve, which was only possible because of the shut down? 

 

59 minutes ago, freyguy said:

alleged shutdowns?  You mean this whole time the shutdowns have been a farce?  But it looks so real to me when I drive around and see all the stores and parks closed!  Thank you for pointing this out to us.  Hallelujah, I see the light!!!  Off I go to Baskin Robbins!

A pint of rum raisin please...

[Iceman 2693]

1 hour ago, freyguy said:

alleged shutdowns?  You mean this whole time the shutdowns have been a farce?  But it looks so real to me when I drive around and see all the stores and parks closed!  Thank you for pointing this out to us.  Hallelujah, I see the light!!!  Off I go to Baskin Robbins!

From the perspective of people actually living and abiding by social distancing, yes, it’s been a very, very expensive exercise in futility.

[Dahobbs 17526]

4 minutes ago, Iceman said:

From the perspective of people actually living and abiding by social distancing, yes, it’s been a very, very expensive exercise in futility.

If the shutdowns aren't actually occurring, then why is it expensive? And what have I been doing staying at home for a month? And why are all airports and flights empty? 

[Cheeseweasel 26438]

2 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

If the shutdowns aren't actually occurring, then why is it expensive? And what have I been doing staying at home for a month? And why are all airports and flights empty? 

Hang on. Working on an answer...

[Iceman 2693]

1 minute ago, Dahobbs said:

If the shutdowns aren't actually occurring, then why is it expensive? And what have I been doing staying at home for a month? And why are all airports and flights empty? 

That part is absolutely real.  The shutdown of commerce and businesses is indisputable. You are positing that everyone is toeing the line and staying away from one another, because it sure as fuck isn’t what I’m seeing, nor is it what my counterparts  who work in the public are experiencing either.

It’s a fucking shell game, at best; with regard to folks abiding by the prescribed tactics.  

[Sbbruin 21829]

9 minutes ago, Iceman said:

From the perspective of people actually living and abiding by social distancing, yes, it’s been a very, very expensive exercise in futility.

This is incorrect.  It is working, and has been effective.  You’re not going to get 100% participation in anything.  But it has clearly been working.

[NorthLoop 14181]

9 hours ago, InkaUtexas said:

 

Not that I agree with their approach, but anyone should probably wait a year before they claim that this experiment "failed". The whole point of the experiment is to get herd immunity quickly so as to avoid the 2nd and 3rd waves in the next year. By April 2021 it's very possible that those other countries could have more Covid deaths. 

[Dahobbs 17526]

3 minutes ago, Iceman said:

That part is absolutely real.  The shutdown of commerce and businesses is indisputable. You are positing that everyone is toeing the line and staying away from one another, because it sure as fuck isn’t what I’m seeing, nor is it what my counterparts  who work in the public are experiencing either.

It’s a fucking shell game, at best; with regard to folks abiding by the prescribed tactics.  

No I'm not. We don't need 100% participation to have a huge effect on the spread of the virus. And... other than hermits, who in our society doesn't "work in the public?"

[bullzak 414]

Just looking at Illinois and California with huge dense cities its hard to argue that social distancing has not been a huge success. The control group is NY/NJ. 

The cost has been huge though. 

[Onboard 2.0 9083]

9 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

No I'm not. We don't need 100% participation to have a huge effect on the spread of the virus. And... other than hermits, who in our society doesn't "work in the public?"

I avoid the public as much as possible. They're the woooorst.

[Dahobbs 17526]

2 minutes ago, NorthLoop said:

Not that I agree with their approach, but anyone should probably wait a year before they claim that this experiment "failed". The whole point of the experiment is to get herd immunity quickly so as to avoid the 2nd and 3rd waves in the next year. By April 2021 it's very possible that those other countries could have more Covid deaths. 

That doesn't make any sense. Why would they have more deaths? Whether a country gets to ~70-80% immunity (or whatever percentage will be needed for this virus) for its population in 3 months or 2 years, the expected fatalities from the disease itself should be the same (assuming no improved treatments or vaccines).

And just saying Sweden is going for herd immunity is non-informative. That's everyone's strategy. The question is just how to get there. Originally, the UK was going for the "just get it over fast" strategy by letting the virus run its course without intervention. Sweden isn't doing that. It's just choosing to encourage rather than mandate stringent social distancing and isolation of the infected. While Sweden hasn't "shutdown" as much as the US, it has still shutdown or reduced a lot of its economic activity. If the US is aiming for the goal of immunity in ~2.5 years through vaccine, Sweden is more aiming for immunity in ~10 months (but probably no vaccine). They are betting that they can string it out just enough to avoid overrunning their very good healthcare system.

[Jiggy-Z 3432]

2 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

That doesn't make any sense. Why would they have more deaths? Whether a country gets to ~70-80% immunity (or whatever percentage will be needed for this virus) for its population in 3 months or 2 years, the expected fatalities from the disease itself should be the same (assuming no improved treatments or vaccines).

And just saying Sweden is going for herd immunity is non-informative. That's everyone's strategy. The question is just how to get there. Originally, the UK was going for the "just get it over fast" strategy by letting the virus run its course without intervention. Sweden isn't doing that. It's just choosing to encourage rather than mandate stringent social distancing and isolation of the infected. While Sweden hasn't "shutdown" as much as the US, it has still shutdown or reduced a lot of its economic activity. If the US is aiming for the goal of immunity in ~2.5 years through vaccine, Sweden is more aiming for immunity in ~10 months (but probably no vaccine). They are betting that they can string it out just enough to avoid overrunning their very good healthcare system.

...and an overall more healthy populace than the US, but that bar is pretty low.

[bschoolprof 6252]

Sweden seems to think their approach is working. Link.

Quote

Sweden Says Controversial Virus Strategy Proving Effective

Sweden’s unusual approach to fighting the coronavirus pandemic is starting to yield results, according to the country’s top epidemiologist.

Anders Tegnell, the architect behind Sweden’s relatively relaxed response to Covid-19, told local media the latest figures on infection rates and fatalities indicate the situation is starting to stabilize

“We’re on a sort of plateau,” Tegnell told Swedish news agency TT.

Sweden has left its schools, gyms, cafes, bars and restaurants open throughout the spread of the pandemic. Instead, the government has urged citizens to act responsibly and follow social distancing guidelines.

The spread of Covid-19 across the globe is triggering different responses across national and even state borders, as authorities struggle to contain an outbreak about which much remains unknown.

It’s unclear which strategy will ultimately prove most effective, and even experts in Sweden warn it’s too early to draw conclusions. But given the huge economic damage caused by strict lockdowns, the Swedish approach has drawn considerable interest around the world.

Part of that approach relies on having access to one of the world’s best-functioning health-care systems. At no stage did Sweden see a real shortage of medical equipment or hospital capacity, and tents set up as emergency care facilities around the country have mostly remained empty.

Death Rates

As of Sunday, Sweden had reported 1,540 deaths tied to Covid-19, an increase of 29 from Saturday. That’s considerably more than in the rest of Scandinavia, but much less than in Italy, Spain and the U.K., both in absolute and relative terms.

Tegnell isn’t the only high-level official in Sweden to claim the country may be over the worst.

“The trend we have seen in recent days, with a more flat curve -- where we have many new cases, but not a daily increase -- is stabilizing,” Karin Tegmark Wisell, head of the microbiology department at Sweden’s Public Health Authority, said on Friday. “We are seeing the same pattern for patients in intensive care.”

Just two weeks ago, the picture was considerably bleaker, and Prime Minister Stefan Lofven suggested the government may need to review its approach amid the prospect of thousands of Swedish deaths. In particular, the failure to protect people in nursing homes has stood out as a clear weakness, which has contributed to higher death rates than in neighboring countries.

“The protection for people in elderly care should have been better,” Lofven said last week. “We need to look closer at what has gone wrong.”

Yet overall, Lofven’s strategy has won the approval of Swedes, and his personal popularity has soared.

“I have very high confidence in the Swedish authorities that manage this,” Volvo Cars CEO Hakan Samuelsson said in a phone interview. “It’s a hard balance to strike, but I have full confidence in the measures that Sweden has taken.”

Volvo, which was forced to halt production across Europe and furlough about 20,000 Swedish employees, will resume production at its Swedish plants on Monday.

“Our measures are all based on individuals taking responsibility, and that is also an important part of the Swedish model,” Samuelsson said.

The Economy

Sweden’s Covid-19 strategy may ultimately result in a smaller -- albeit historically deep -- economic contraction than the rest of Europe is now facing, according to HSBC Global Research economist James Pomeroy.

“While Sweden’s unwillingness to lock down the country could ultimately prove to be ill-judged, for now, if the infection curve flattens out soon, the economy could be better placed to rebound,” he said.

Pomeroy pointed to some Swedish characteristics that may be helping the country deal with the current crisis. More than half of Swedish households are single-person, making social distancing easier to carry out. More people work from home than anywhere else in Europe, and everyone has access to fast Internet, which helps large chunks of the workforce stay productive away from the office.

And while many other countries have introduced strict laws, including hefty fines if people are caught breaching newly minted social-distancing laws, Swedes appear to be following such guidelines without the need for legislation. Trips from Stockholm to Gotland -- a popular vacation destination -- dropped by 96% over the Easter weekend, according to data from the country’s largest mobile operator, Telia Company. And online service Citymapper’s statistics indicate an almost 75% drop in mobility in the capital.

Sweden also recently pushed back against the notion that there’s little to no social distancing going on.

“We don’t have a radically different view,” Foreign Minister Ann Linde said in an interview with Radio Sweden. “The government has made a series of decisions that affect the whole society. It’s a myth that life goes on as normal in Sweden.”

 

[Iceman 2693]

19 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

No I'm not. We don't need 100% participation to have a huge effect on the spread of the virus.

Link?